BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander predicts the latest housing upturn will go on for another three years; says Auckland prices up 27% from 2009

BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander predicts the latest housing upturn will go on for another three years; says Auckland prices up 27% from 2009

The upturn in house prices "has only just started" and will probably go on for another three years yet, BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander says.

He says in his "weekly overview" that examination of Real Estate Institute of New Zealand data shows that Auckland house prices are already up 27% from the low point in 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Just behind Auckland is Christchurch with a 23% gain and the capital Wellington, with just an 11% rise. Across the whole country prices are up 16% during the same period.

Compared with the market high point in 2007, Auckland prices are up 12%, Christchurch 9% and Wellington is unchanged. Nationwide, prices are up 5%.

Alexander says the latest upturn bears the greatest resemblance to the one seen in the 1990s, "which was also led by Auckland, rather than the 2000s cycle, which came out of the regions".

"One of the phenomena of the 1990s cycle was that it spread out of Auckland to the rest of the country. Commentary over the past three weeks has started to revolve around that theme."

The latest price figures suggest that the Wellington market is "due for a decent catch-up", Alexander says.

The BNZ in conjunction with REINZ runs a monthly Residential Market Survey. In its next one, due in two or three weeks, it will be featuring some "solid data" on the presence of offshore buyers in the New Zealand market.

"There are literally hundreds of anecdotes flying around regarding Chinese buying residential property in Auckland," Alexander says.

He cites an email he received from an Auckland developer who recently tendered for a development plot, put in what he considered was a price "at the higher end of what it was worth" and ended up being outbid by numerous tenders "and from what I am told they were all from Asian investors. Every developer we talk to is complaining of being consistently outbid by Asian investors on development land", the developer said.

Alexander says there is a lot of speculation that these offshore investors are using the purchase of development land to gain entry to the country "under the investment route somehow, either directly or through an already established development business, and if that was the case it would not only be unfair competition (they are paying a premium for the land to purchase residency), but also has implications to the housing market, and surely won't be helping affordability?"

 

 

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94 Comments

There was at least a 50% chinese crowd at Barfoots North Shore auction rooms this week and they were the successful bidders on many of the properties. The chinese were also out in force at yesterdays Bayleys auctions:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10868433
 

Are they NZ resident or citizen, or not?
Or they will never be accepted by NZ's increasingly mixed society after living on 'the land of long white cloud' after 5 generations.
I will have my first son born here very soon and hope he will be seen as a Kiwi not an alien.

I've been in NZ for over twenty years and still got told to go home now and then (funny enough they yelled out "go home' while I was on my way home after work.. go figure!)
Anyway, congratulations and I am sure son will be treated as a genuine kiwi..

Sigh~~~
 
But hey, tomorrow is another day!
 
 

We all were immigrants at some stage.. people seems to forget that fact!

At my school in the early 90s, the only foreigners in my class were a boy that moved out from England when he was five and a lad from Western Samoa.  In the entire school (of over 700) there were only about 2 or 3 asians, of whom all were NZ born and were treated no differently.
 
Virtually everyone's granddad had fought in the WWII.  Virtually everyone had a family member fight or die at Gallipoli or the Western Front (my Great Great Uncle was killed in France and my Grandmother's first cousin is buried at Lone Pine Gallipoli).
 
If your family hadn't arrived on the First Four Ships (1850 Chch), then you were a newcomer!  (Most of my family arrived in the 1860s).
 
My point is that in just 20 years NZ has changed so dramatically, that in parts it is unrecognisable.
 
The question needs to be asked is there a real benefit to having this kind of rapid immigration??
 
The majority of our current big buildings, our existing big infrastructure projects were built in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s.  This was before the recent wave of immigration.  The only significant big projects we've seen since then have been shoebox apartments and a handful (one hand) of buildings developed primarily by investment companies.
 
Immigration certainly hasn't caused the growth in our primary industries, few migrants are involved in those sectors.
 
However immigration has definitely been a factor in house price inflation, which is perceived to be negative to society, and it is a factor in the congestion and densification of Auckland which is also perceived as negative.  It brings added costs to infrastructure projects, health costs, superannuation costs etc etc.
 
The question is, whether the benefits of immigration outway those costs?
 
Given NZ's economic performance over the past 20 years, it seems questionable.
 
Are we happy to allow the displacement of 6th and 7th generation Aucklanders in favour of wealthy migrants to continue unabated?  Is it acceptable suburbs (such as Epsom) become 60, 70 or 100% recent migrants (it's currently about 45% Asian).
 
This is an entirely different issue to rising house prices, yet it's been totally avoided for 20 years (except when Winston has an election to contest!)
 
I have nothing against highly skilled migrants who are capable and qualified to work here, but can Auckland handle continued immigration en masse?
 
 

Kinda sicken me that Asians are always singled out.
 
What make them special/different -- appearance??
 
Low income but kids still get full tummy before going to school?
Low income but kids still get good results from school?
Low income but nearly none are fit to work but choose not to?
Low income but nearly none is getting $ by robbing and stealing from others?
Low income but nearly none drinks too much to a scene out of Queens St?
 
You can call me Asian. What would you call my son who is going to be born here in NZ?
I really do not want him to be alienated, really want him to have a sense of belonging.
 

No I think you are wrong here, what you are saying is we cant critisize possible wrong doing if that person isnt "white" (or whatever we happen to be). 
Surely you can see the difference in outlook between mainland chinese and NZers? things like corruption, amoral behaviour etc? because I quite quickly learned some years back that more than a few chinese are severely lacking in this respect.  This is an experience thing btw, maybe Ive been unlucky but more than a few chinese business ppl or contacts have tried to take advantage of me, my extended family and especially my wife for an almost pathetic gain.
btw where does he say chinese/asian? cant see it...me thinks you are overly sensitive.
regards
 
 

Yes Steven, surely Chinese cannot be as moral and ethical as "white" people...afterall they a ARE of a different colour.
 
And definitely Chinese are MORE corrupt than "white" people...all because of your experience...ALL Chinese must be bad people, corrupt, unethical, lack morals etc etc
Surely we can blame all our housing problems onto these "corrupt, unethical, immoral chinese Developers" who are buying up all those houses at million dollar prices leaving all those poor Non-Chinese Kiwis behind to live in container houses in South Auckland......

No....but believe what you will.
regards

NZ is certainly at a crossroad.  Acceptance of another group of people looking slightly apart from the Caucasian tradition is up to us.  I am in Australia and the calling for more involvements from Asians is louder than ever.  Here in Brisbane, the southern suburbs are known as the new China city (Sunnybank areas).  One would be struggling to find a shop sign in English, vistors to a typical open home in the area would be all Asians and yet people just got on with their business. I haven't seen any negative news item about Asians snapping up the properties here, may be I haven't read far and wide..
Are Australians more open minded than us?  Don't know.. may be just Kiwi's tall poppies syndrome

Chaiman ...these are your posts just from today alone.....
 

I've been in NZ for over twenty years and still got told to go home now and then (funny enough they yelled out "go home' while I was on my way home after work.. go figure!)

Anyway, congratulations and I am sure son will be treated as a genuine kiwi..

 

FYI, yes I have cashed up and gone, I don't own any house in NZ anymore. NZ is still home for me as a place that I grew up and am home often enough to visit friends and family. 

As for racial slurs, I was called something similar to the sound of "fluctation" while catching the train from Middlemore to the city, that was in early December.

 

Yes, Yes, Yes came to NZ as a refugee (happy to go home if I could)

Lost my job during the Super City prcoess, found a job in Brisbane.

Yes, came to NZ with nothing..  5 bucks if that! 

 

There are some inconsistencies here....where were you a refugee from20 plus years ago, you were a child refugee I take it as you grew up here and still have your family enduring this living hell...i take it it was your five bucks you arrived with or the family fortune of the time.....

 

some bells just don't ring right here..........fear of being labeled a racist does not cure racism, playing the sympathy card  does not make it go away either.

 Honesty in the form of candour while willing to learn one brush doe not tar all.

Racism whether overt or suppressed is not just a one way door you know....oh I'm sure you do.

Zing. Last week you took the trouble to set out an analogy of a German who was born in China and grew up in China and is thus treated as Chinese. Good example. What it says is "when in Rome, do the Roman thing, do as Romans do" what you didnt explain was that he probably didnt open up a whole lot of German Beer Shops selling Steins, with signs and lettering written (exclusively) in German, and all the employees speaking German.

I bet if the vibe were right, you would be that OZ who was going to fillet the French women siging in French.
You loath culture diversity? You think English is the only language should be used in a English spoken country? Why do not you put Maori word under all English signs?
I think your 'Rome' is changing just as the world is changing. 
Internet shortens distance between countries. Youtube brings different cultures above tables.
Like it or not, you have to embrace it. 
Admittedly, some culture is more resistent than others; some culture is more invasive than others; some culture can last longer than others; some culture can past onto more generations without much change than others.
I am sorry but Kiwi culture is the one that is going to be ever changing and evolving. 
But I hope that my son can have a merry Xmas with other Kiwi kids and at the same time, have a wonderful lunar new year with his friends equally.
OMG, I love my explanation above. Do I sound a native for this instance?

OK, I'll join in the personalisation. Cant say I'm too happy with the culture your people are bringing. It's viral. It's invasive. Is this what you say we should embrace? Accept?
 
Read this from November 2012
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10844822
and this extract from November 2012
http://www.interest.co.nz/node/61835/property
 
Duke Street is in Mt Roskill. Asian Brothels and Gambling Dens.
 
 
How disappointing. Unfortunately thats a true representation of the transformation that is occurring in Auckland. I grew up in Mt Roskill. A time when it WAS a wonderful place. A  good community. Didn't need to lock your doors at night. Roskill South was the End-of-the-World in those days. The last stop before Waikhowai and the Manukau Harbour. The place is in my DNA. I return frequently to the place of my birth. I stand on the top of Mt Puketepapa (Mt Roskill) from where I can see the cones, the maori forts, Mt Albert, Mt Eden, One Tree Hill, Three Kings and The Manukau. You didn't need Chinese interpreters. There were no brothels or gambling dens.
 
 
How did this happen? It's not my culture. It angers me to see what has happened.
 
One thing for sure, there are no russian oligarchs in the neighbourhood, and you won't find James Cameron there either.

I bet Skycity's owners have the same culture as you do.
 
You play this generlization game again! I am just a resident here. It is politicians making the Act. 
 
After all, we are all bunch of law abiding citizens.
 
If you are still pissed off, let my buy you a coffee and we talk it out and I show you the other side of my culture. K?
 
Besides, as I said above, you have 13bn Chinese and 10bn Indain are hanging there and getting rich. Pakeha's population is just on a downward trend. 
 
A ppl with half a brain will tell me that sooner of later he/she will hump (be humped) by a Chinese or Indian. 

don't buy him a coffee... give him a cup oloong tea and feed him some (yummy) wontons!

iconoclast, wind your clock back one hundred something years when the new arrivals bought lands of the local natives for a song (or should I say confiscated of them?) .  I guess back then they had the same feeling as you do about their local scenery.. 
If you have time jump into youtube and  listen to "Last Resort" by the Eagles

There is someting called Ethnocentrism will always be haunting around in iconoclast's head.

xing ...I find inconsistency in you posts as well ...your language skills are all over the place , one minute very Jackie Chan....necth minute very eloquent...
 Now you wouldn't be taking these nice chaps for a ride ....would you..? 

Well. I am very Jackie Chan when relaxed.
 
I guess the adrenaline pumping in my vein just made me an eloquent English speaker/commenter.
 
Hahah. You have a sharp sense though.

Ethnocentrism is a natural predisposition of human psychology. There's nothing you can do about it.
What is it that you want Xing?
Do you want to be perceived / accepted as "same" by kiwis - you won't be (for the above reason).
Do you want your son to be perceived as “same” by kiwis? – He won’t be (for the same reason). His issue will be that while he will feel himself to be a “kiwi”, his “Asian” heritage will – albeit to a smaller extent – affect his perception by “kiwis”.
There will always be people who are prepared or even inclined to generalize and assume that you might possess those qualities that some of the Chinese have been unfavourably famous for. You will have to either accept this and prove / convince them every time that their perception is not quite right, or move back to where you are “same”.
It’s all part of what migration entails…

Well, "..... you might possess those qualities that some of the Chinese have been unfavourably famous for ....." that is then called racism -- a belief that certain charateristics are associated with a race.
 
Quite blatantly.
 
 
 
 

Chairman: I know what you mean. I have been to Parliament House in Canberra and stood enthralled at one of 4 copies in the world of the Magna Carta. At Xmas I visited a place in the Grampians out west. Spent a half day at Brambuk National Cultural Centre. Identical to a Maori Cutlural Centre. Disturbing and thought provoking. Cant say I ever spent much time as a youngster thinking about the Treaty of Waitangi, but now, the older I get, I think about it a lot, and would walk over glass and through fire to protect our Maori Heritage. What we have left of it.

Always enjoy reading your posts Iconoclast.
Actually James Cameron is sort of in my neighbourhood!  And if you want to go back to what you experienced as good ole NZ in Mt Roskill you had better move to "The Rapa".  Its hot, sunny, (really cold in the winter) most houses are of a reasonable price (we've just sold ours - move in 3 weeks and now have money in our pockets as well as a brand new 4 bedroom house - for under $450,000 on a quarter acre section); We are only on average 1 hour from Wellington and the majority of the populace is New Zealanders born and bred and Maori.  Have to say at times it gets a little incestuous and small town but on the whole all the people are just lovely and friendly. We even go swimming in the river and leave all the windows and doors open while we are away!!!   Oh and we have wonderful fresh produce to eat. 
Sound tempting - all you need is a good job eh?  So how about someone moving industries around New Zealand where people will enjoy living. 

You are fighting the wrong war Zing. There has always been Chinese migration into New Zealand. Ever since the 1800's. they came. They anglicised their names. They changed. They fitted in. Many of them married Maoris. They didn't change New Zealand. New Zealand changed them

Really? 
Keep up with the news iconoclast.. 
http://tvnz.co.nz/content/81186/425825/article.html

I agree. 
But get clear on what New Zealand is. They will change NZ surely. Will the Year of Dragon/Snake stamps be publised by NZ Post 20 years ago?
To be honest, I do not like living in AKL either, not because it is to divered. It is because it is too big for me. I loath those bad eggs as well.

One day, as part of indoctrinating your son into the ways of the kiwi, spend some time, a couple of weeks, down on the East Cape, out from Whakatane, visit some Marae, meet and greet the local Maori. Learn of their ways.

Te Reo Maori (sorry for the typo before), Haka and NZ's national anthem will be a 3 much learn for my son. But I will indoctrinate him. 
You are so trying to lure me to your traps.
hahahha. Catch up on a tea some time?

Or make him play Rugby.. my son is playing Rugby (union) for the first time last year under 10.. he jumped from C team last year to A team this year.  If he keeps up with the sport, I hope that he will stick to his birth country and wear a black instead of gold/green jersey!

We are NOT talking about immigrants we are talking about non-residents and you should be as concerned as we are about what is going on

Perhaps we should also be talking about how money from both those who seek residency and those who have already obtained it are causing those born here to be shut out of owning their own home.
Yes it probably is partly because through inadequate language skills that is the only way they know how to get an income from within NZ.
 

Chairman..do forgive me if I'm wrong here ,but didn't you just tell me you'd cashed up and gone.... over on another thread.....you recall..? the steamroller would be running over me..?
I ask because you say some idiot yelled at you to go home on your way home, was this in N.Z...?
 I think to put some perspective on this, it has been more a case of gaining a measure of investments by foreign nationals laundering though property, not Chinese immigrants wanting to resettle and build a life for their future generations.
 My neighbor and fishing buddy is a chinese immigrant from back in the forties, salt of the earth kind of bloke , his wife too...worked their asses off to have all five children highly qualified specialists in their field....contributing citizens ...for the better all the way down the line.
A senior in the Auckland Chinese Community it is more than a little interesting to hear his thoughts on current investment levels by Foreign Nationals........ he along with a number of his associates are more than a little uncomfortable about it.
There is no doubt for the most part the demographic will make good citizens provided a spirit of inclusiveness is afforded them before drawing irrational conclusions.

FYI, yes I have cashed up and gone, I don't own any house in NZ anymore. NZ is still home for me as a place that I grew up and am home often enough to visit friends and family. 
As for racial slurs, I was called something similar to the sound of "fluctation" while catching the train from Middlemore to the city, that was in early December.

Cheers for the clarification Chairman ...no offence intended.
 

Keep up with the news Chairman Mao
 
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10849339
 
And that is not an isolated instance - it was only newsworthy because of the ferocity of it on public transport

Elucidate
You lived in New Zealand for 20 years
You grew up in New Zealand? How old are you? more than 30?
Why did you do a runner to Brisbane?
Did  you leave New Zealand with more than you arrived excluding earned income from your labour?

Yes, Yes, Yes came to NZ as a refugee (happy to go home if I could)
Lost my job during the Super City prcoess, found a job in Brisbane.
Yes, came to NZ with nothing..  5 bucks if that!

So, New Zealand has been kind to you

Only you are trying hard not to.
 
Ha ha LoL....

<like>

You know full well that plenty of them are non-residents, and they are cutting actual NZers and that would include your son, out of the market. Now if it sounds racist to you that us kiwis are extremely concerned about this and want a stop put to it, then tough tit, we are looking after our own, which again includes your son

Ihave a share in a house coming up for auction shortly and i hope that the Asian buyers are out in force.
In fact i hope people from all countries are in the crowd and boost the price.
If they have the money i have the house.

Double Grammar Zoned?

Wow, an economist making timing predictions and desperately hoping to be right!
Even macro traders and hedge funds that correctly bet against subprime had trouble timing that and making a profit, with the exception of Kyle Bass and a few others.
But interesting they both suspect things to become unstuck in the near future, including Kyle Bass himself and also the likes of Marc Faber, Robert Kyosaki, John Mauldin, Richard Duncan etc.
Question is, when the current bond market bubble turns and inflation rages, could this keep housing, stocks & commodities in a bull market? (as currencies inflate away)  But when that happens interest rates will rise.
For the sake of real estate investors, perhaps now is a time to: 
"as individual investors, be more conservative than you think you need to be"  - Kyle Bass

So what was the developer wanting tha bank to do?.
 
Running some numbers yesterday we note the local banks will start at 80% but really lend up to 90% of project costs. So its back to the supply of credit......
Why they do this:
Well as house prices are up, so to are off the plan values...
As off the plan values rise so to do feasibility margins on development projects
As project margins incrase so to does bank lending against project costs...
 
Doing sums on the construction contract we went through the cost reduction when we do the procurement of supplies and finishings etc direct from O/S.
Have you checked local build reate per square metre lately (good quality finishes).
We are not the only ones thinking like this.
We suspect the "Asian Investors" see this as well. And on any banks feasibility schedule, the money saved on construction can be used to buy the site - as project margin stays the same.....
 

The "Asian investor" gets the blame again.  Can we please get some real statistics on these alleged overseas investors.  Lets all remember that there are a lot of Asian citizens in Auckland now (in some suburbs they are the majority ethnic group) so it makes sense that they are a majority at auctions. 
 
In my experience Kiwi Asians are much more financially savvy than your average Kiwi and most have investments including residential property.  

True, but when I was haunting auctions all over Auckland 6 months or so ago, most of them didn't appear to speak any english and required their estate agent or a family memeber to act as translator. That's not definitive proof that they're not citizens/permanent residents, but it's a general indicator that they're not exactly fully signed-up kiwis.
 
I'm just bloody glad I finally managed to get a place and don't have to worry about the madness any more.

Fully signed-up Kiwi?????
Well, we have some Maori people speak only Te Aro Maori, not a single word of English,
 
I bet she/he is more Kiwi than you are.
 
Right?

Te Aro Maori?
A fully signed up Kiwi, would at least know that they speak "Te Reo", unless perhaps the Maori from Te Aro Valley in Wellington have some kind of regional dialect that I'm not aware of.
 
By "Fully signed up Kiwi", I mean literally that..... Citizens. I'm betting a large proportion of those active homebuyers who are actually citizens would be proficient in English and not require translators, these Chinese people I've largely seen at auction were definitely speaking Mandolin
 
 
 
(Intentional misspelling there because I'm taking the mickey!)

Like you are able to tell the different between 'Mandolin' and 'Cantonese'.
Humor me. But, have you ever travelled overseas before?
Do not like the law? Ask JK to change it. Setup a parade in front of parliament. Yell that 
"You are mad as hell and you are not gonna take it anymore".
I am all for some kinda restrictions on purchasing house/land in NZ.
 
But, please do not use a spray gun to get the job done because innocent within the group will get hurt.
 
 
 

nicely put xingmowang.....the target should be identified with supporting evidence before spaying the buckshot with  wild abandon.
it is a great shame there are so many barriers throughout the official information act to supress just this kind of information that would bring some accuracy at least to the firing range.

I guess it would be a tough stat to put together, do foreign buyers fill in different forms/contracts?  I guess you'd have to cross reference NZ home owners with a NZ citizen list but even then there would be layers of trusts and companies owning the properties.
 
I guess we'll never know. 

That's just the thing though XMW.... I'm not against Chinese, nor am I against Malaysians, Indians, Mongolians, Japanese owning property here. What I do think is lunacy is having open slather to ANY foreign nationals buying residential property here in such a constricted market. The fact of the matter is that HK and Mainland Chinese are the most visible here in Auckland at the moment, I'm sure there's a lot of cashed up Brits, Aussies and Yanks that are contributing as well, and I'm just as against them.
 
In the end, it matters little to me now that I've got a place, for my own selfish reasons I hope the hordes of foreign buyers decide that my suburb is a good one and start speculating away, but I know that on the whole this isn't good for the country and some form of restriction (as most other countries have) is needed.

It's interesting that the 2003 boom was driven by Australians buying up investment properties in the regions.
 
Back then one Dunedin agent told me that over half of their sales were to Aussies.  Prices doubled within 18 months due to the lack of supply of cheap houses and yields understandably plunged from the 15-20% level to 8-10%.
 
Auckland has a different problem.  There is not enough room for growth in supply and there is too much growth in demand, driven by internal and external migration.
 
Rapid migration (mainly from Asia) to Auckland over the past 2 decades to replace the drain of people leaving the regions and the cities for Aussie and beyond, is just shear lunacy.

Xing - maybe you should also stand in the parade in front of parliament that way the innocent might not get hurt.

"Fully signed up Kiwi, I mean literally that..... Citizens" - note that citizenship may not be a perfect criteria here. Many immigrants may not have NZ citizenship either because they haven't spent enough time in the country yet (but intend to) or because their country of origin doesn't allow dual-citizenship (and they don't want to relinquish it due to most of their family still living there for example). If they are living, working & paying tax in NZ, surely they're not quite in the same category as foreigners buying investment properties in NZ?

That actually brings me another quesiton:
 
Will A Kiwi with a NZ passport and a Brit (or other passport) passport be an 'overly signed-up Kiwi'?
 
haha , just curious.

We have always been Anglo-centric, moving to be Sinocentric is going to be an interesting shift, one many Kiwis are unprepared for.
 Do it to fast and the wheels will come off.

Stop Asians from buying houses in Auckland!!!!!

Why donot you kill all people with Asian faces in AKL? Problem solved. Go and kill them.

OMG what sort of suggestion is that!!!  Are you primary school kid??

Just follow your comments about "Stop all Asians from buying houses in AKL".
I thought you'd say you would kill them all next.
Great. You are not that crue. You still want them alive. 

Call me a grumpy old cynic, but TA is just talkin' BNZ's loan book here, shurely?
 
As in: 
House prices up, incomes stable = greater average loan value
Loan avg value up and interest rates stable = greater interest revenue stream for (whodathunk) Banks
Interest rates falling probability = snowball in Hades (would simply stoke house price factor further)
Interest rates rising probability = yup, could well happen
Higher interest rates on existing loan book allowing for a lag where fixed rate = higher interest revenue stream for the bank
House prices crash probability (the S&P downgrade or Repo Man scenario) low and the only bank downside is a mark-to-market asset write-down - they still have the property....
 
I don't see too many bank Fails in any of these scenarios.
 
So TA is happily talking up the revenue streams.
 
And this is News????

A few things:
 
No, he's talking house prices but yes a more active market typically means a bigger loan book. 
Banks make more on floating rates, the rate to customers can constantly evolve as their funding costs change and they can easily and consistently preserve their margin.  Offering fixed rates is more of a gamble and over the long term they typically make less from the fixed rates.  
Chance of a house price crash in a market with strong demand and crisis levels shortage of properties…  slim to none.  Furthermore if banks believe that the market will keep going up they will market and lend aggressively with the comfort that their asset/security is safe.  This flood of easy and cheap credit into the market turns their own prediction into a self fulfilling prophecy.  

When I was working in South Auckland, racial slurs seemed to be the daily event from pacific islanders youth.  Now living in the other side of the Tasman, I haven’t experienced any for the last two years, may be they are more acceptance here than the people of Aotearoa.. But this is only my observation.

Olly Newland has got the right perspective:
From his web site:
"Can't say I agree with Tony Alexander on all the points he raises especially with a touch of Xenopobia  thrown in the mix. So what if Asians are buying property? When they pay out money it goes straight into the pockets of Kiwis, who in turn can compete back in the market."

BigDaddy, perhaps it's time to disclose your relationship to Olly...

They're a gay couple?

 Gareth ,they were cellmates....how does it go..? when you find your servant is your Master.  

Gareth... Big Daddy is Olly.

He is..?
....so he posts in the third person....? wow that's an unusual bi-polar, where one becomes one's own toady...no self loathing involved....just adoration with unyeilding support.
 Gosh, at least Tribleless has a sense of perspective......

Yes that's been pretty obvious for a long time, pathetic self promotion

Yes that's been pretty obvious for a long time, pathetic self promotion

acolyte.
 
regards...
 

BD - It is the non-resident buyers who seem to avoid paying any taxation here in NZ that is the problem. Non-residents pushing up the prices might see a transfer of money to the seller who can compete back in the market however if the seller is an investor they will be contributing to the tax system where as the non-resident who sells wont be.
 
When did it become Xenophobic to want non-residents to contribute to the tax system?
When did it become Xenophobic to want residents to be able to buy their own home?
 
If NZ has high numbers of non-resident investors in property then NZ has an obligation to address this issue. The fact that Govenments fail miserably in this area is actually creating a bad undercurrent as citizens see themselves as being threatened in the market for something basic like a roof over their head.
 

Day one in the cellblock
Bigdaddy....sooo Ollie who you wanna be, Mommy or Daddy
Ollie..(.thoughtful, cautious, in full damage prevention control)......erm I'll be Daddy...! 
Bigdaddy....ok daddy git down an...........................(predeleted out of respect to the Moderator) 

So what if Asians buy properties?
When they pay the money it goes straight into the pockets of Kiwi sellers who can then go into market in direct competition. You are quite correct.
Might as well blame Aliens for price rises.
The field is totally even for all participants no matter where they come from.

Pater of Considerable Proportion...didn't you already say that in response to Tony A as the other person..or ..um ,no wait now I'm confused.... which one are you again.? 

BigDaddy is Helen Clarke in drag.

The issue is not about Asian immigrants buying properties. That's great. The issue is off shore investors, who may happen to be Asian, who make no contribution to the country other than continue to inflate a dangerous housing bubble.

I just wish all those with veiled accusations of xenophobia would get this through their heads. It IS about non-resident foreigners buying up houses and land and they inlcude Germans, Swedes, Chinese, Russians, Americans, Australians it is just bad luck at the moment that the most obvious ones are the Chinese in the auction rooms
Get over it I say, if you have immigrated to NZ then you and yours also stand to be steamrollered by these cashed foreigners scooping everything up
Other countries have placed controls on it, it's not rocket science to understand that that forces more of them here.
If you consider yourself a NZer then think about your fellow kiwis or we may be struggling to believe that you are. Nothing wrong with protecting your own citizens, now YOU decide what you really are

As I said earlier today raegun........
I think to put some perspective on this, it has been more a case of gaining a measure of investments by foreign nationals laundering though property, not Chinese immigrants wanting to resettle and build a life for their future generations.

Boom..... Or three more years so boom boom boom. Prices have now moved. $300k used to get you a solid renter in the outer Auckland suburbs, now your looking at $400k.
Glad I bought mine all around 2009! 
MIA still sticking to your 30% chance of a crash prediction? Does that mean there is a 70% chance of a boom? ;)

But I thought property doubled  in value every seven years Tony. Surely your latest thoughts are wrong. My portfolio will not survive unless it continues to double in value.
 

Probably more like $500k now in outer suburbs - went to this auction in Blockhouse Bay - sold for $507k and totally original with a CV of $370k
http://www.harcourts.co.nz/Property/602865/BS130105/3-Meredith-Street

Wow, this house definitely looks below average in terms of presentation and size.  The only plus is the full-site land area of 642 sqm.  570k for this 85 sqm house in Blockhouse Bay...really?

With all the negative news out there, people dont realise we are actually in the beginning of the "good times" now. Its all up until the next recession which should come around 2017~2018 according to history. So Tony is probably right about another 3 years maybe 4. Its a planed out game after all.
Yes price might crash 30%, but price will double before that happens.
Actually it is the idea of that property price will crash that is driving the price up. Weird isn't it, but its true.

It's snowballing
When Xi Jinping became President of PRC late last year he announced a crackdown on corruption. Shortly afterward, anticipating a flood of hot-money out of PRC, Hong Kong and Singapore announced a doubling of Sales Tax and Stamp Duties on property purchases by non-residents. Immediate response. January-February property prices in Sydney and Melbourne rise 5% and 10%

SMH Property editor Stephen Nicholls reports. Chinese get a taste for Sydney. A new visa is working wonders for Sydney's prestige market. At a recent roadshow in Shanghai, the prestige agency Sotheby's showcased nine Sydney luxury homes to an enthralled audience. In the room were 60 people who had expressed interest in the new Significant Investor Visa, which fast-tracks migrant visas for foreigners who invest more than $5 million in approved investments, such as government bonds, managed funds or companies. Recent sales include:-
Bay Street, Mosman, sold for $20 million
Vaucluse Road, Vaucluse, sold for $14 million
Bay Street, Mosman, sold for $12.8 million
Seaforth Crescent, Seaforth, sold for $6.5 million
Vaucluse Road, Vaucluse, sold for $5.8 million
http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/gold-rush-for-bricks-and-mortar-20130301-2fbvv.html

David Tan at the Malayan The Star reports (for those who haven't got the readies)
Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) is bankrolling asian property buyers into property in Australia and NZ
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=%2F2012%2F9%2F3%2Fbusiness%2F11928872

NZ's got a two-tiered visa-for-sale system;
http://www.newzealandnow.govt.nz/new-zealand-visa/visas-to-invest/investor-visa
The question is whether an existing residential property bought for the purpose of offering as rental accommodation fits the category of 'acceptable investment'; 
http://www.newzealandnow.govt.nz/new-zealand-visa/visas-to-invest/acceptable-investments-for-visas
 
 
 
 

TA is spot on - probably 10% price growth in Auckland for each of the next three years. Wage growth will follow and also likely to see a net migration gain. Combine with very low new housing supply and maybe interest rates at 4% at some point in the next 12 months and Olly could also be right with house prices doubling over the next 7 years.

Is bigblue is the same BigDaddy = Olly Newland??  Pathetic self-promotion again!

Wage growth follows house prices? Maybe for individuals with specialist skills, e.g. I would ask for an additional $30K if told to shift to Auckland to compensate for the loss in disposable income due to higher housing costs. However, it can't happen for the working population as a whole, because many businesses would shift to where labour costs are lower.
Wage growth must be related to higher productivity, an increase in the cost of land decreases profitability.