The sector hardest hit by LVR restrictions is the sub $400K's and the data proves that clearly, says Alistair Helm

By Alistair Helm*

Barfoot & Thompson published its Housing Market Update for May highlighting what is a clearly a slowing property market with the year on year sales volume down 14% as compared to May 2013.

The trend of property sales is downward, from a peak in October last year the moving annual total of sales by Barfoot & Thompson in the Auckland market has fallen from 13,232 to 12,572 in May.

Within the composition of sales for the month of May the most striking fact is that whilst total sales at 1,109 was down 14% compared to a year ago the sales of property below $400,000 was down 50% - the total sales in May 2013 of property below $400,000 was 301 properties, a year later this segment had fallen by half to just 151.

Just to reinforce these numbers, excluding the below $400,000 segment which still represents 1 in 8 properties in Auckland the remainder of the property sales, those over $400,000 saw sales volumes slip just 3% down from 991 in May 2013 to 958 a year later.

So almost all of the 14% fall in total sales is as a result of the collapse of the sub $400,000 segment.

It can be no coincidence that this segment of the market has been the hardest hit by the withdrawal of funding for high LVR mortgages which are primarily for 1st time buyers seeking an entry level property which in Auckland has traditionally been this sector.

The LVR restrictions came into effect in October of last year and since that time sales in the 8 month period for property at this lower price bracket of less than $400,000 has totalled 1,541 property sales a year earlier it was 2,123, nearly 600 less purchases over that 8 month period, at a time when sales volumes overall barely changed.

The chart below very clearly shows the impact of the LVR - performance before October certainly showed a weakening in the lower price segment of the market; however after implementation the impact has been striking with the red bars for the lower prices segments showing the decline in year on year sales volumes.

The retardant of LVR restrictions has certainly quelled the fire of the property market which was burning brightly this time last year.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The above article was written by Alistair Helm, and is republished with his approval. The article was originally published on Properazzi here

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment or click on the "Register" link below a comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current Comment policy is here.

26 Comments

So the fact that anything under 485k in auck is in most cases excluded from the lvr rules doesn't weaken your argument? And the number of properties under 400k changing over time isn't considered?

The article yesterday showed the number of sales as a proportion of total number of properties in that category was equally impacted by lvr restrictions across diff price brackets.

Your methodology is not as good as it doesn't look at numbers of sales as a % of the group.

I'm going with the better research published yesterday.

Produce a graph showing the distribution of properties across each cat for 2012 13 14. I imagine a bulge around 300-600 that's now moved to 450-750; hence the big drop off in sales under 400k.

Thanks for your efforts though.

Collapse of the sub $400K??
Nonsense.
For a start there are very few houses in the sub $400K bracket in the Auckland region as compared to those above $400K.
Price rises in the last 12  months have made sure if that.
Trademe lists 2653 properties of all kinds under $400K and 6819 properties above $400K.
As Barfoots don't operate much in the cheaper end of the market their sales results don't accurately reflect the LVR effects at all.

Back to the drawing board Alistair and try harder next time.
 

You ain't seen nothing yet.
Wait till the RBNZ brings in debt / income caps on the banks.
That will dwarf the effect of LVR restrictions.
 
The LVR restrictions ARE working very well.
FHB are using families, but it is investors who are hitting the wall at the bank.
People wanting to upsize are having trouble selling their cheaper first home properties.
Plus, the IRD is finally cracking down on speculators, especially in South Auckland.
 
B&T had an 11% under the hammer auction clearance rate recently
 
No wonder the spruikers are worried.
OCR rise next week
I can smell the fear on their breath from here.

Friends and family in Auckland are saying the same thing. Less turning up to open homes and no one bidding at auctions. Incomes have not kept up with price increases. The strain and pressure is growing by the week. Any increase in interest rates will only add to it.  People work on fear and greed in all markets. Fear is on the horizon.

Fundamentally nothing much has changed on the supply side and or expectations of population growth. Just fewer buyers and sellers. I think this could be the calm before the storm.

No one bidding at Auctions?  
 
Harcourts  Auckland May 2014 Auction results

35 Auctions called YTD - 23 prior or under the hammer 66%
11 Sold post auction 31%

95% sold through the auction method, 1 available 3%.

Link:

http://vision.harcourts.co.nz/Home/Auctions/Auction-Results-2014-To-Date/45652
 
Shows pretty steady results to me.
Guess of you repeat an untruth often enough people will believe it.
.

Spot the spruiker.
YTD !!
Over 5 months old some of that data.
 
The tide has turned, suddenly.
Many are swimming naked.
OCR is working.
LVRs are working.
IRD crackdown is working.
Forcing some investors to move to commercial loan conditions is working.
 
Lets look at May, Jun, July, figures from the big four agencies in Akl when they are out.
 

... everyone spruiks something spottie , so tell us what's your thing , if you reckon it's got more legs than BigDaddy's favourite , property rentals ?

My investments include property GBH,
However the majority of mine do not affect the ability of young kiwi families to get into their own homes, ones that are not a million miles away from work and schools at least.
 
I don't spruik my investments to non-resident foreigners , to investors looking to buy house number 25, etc.
 
Because homeowners are competing (on an uneven tax field) with investors, it makes it a totally unique situation compared to my Meridian shares (as an example).
I can buy as many shares as I want tomorrow, the new house hunter is in a different kettle of fish.
 
Auckland prices - including the ones I own-  need to at least stop increasing....perhaps even a reduction would not be unhealthy.

... if you own more than one house , it could be argued ( but not by me ) that you're denying FHB's the chance to own those extra homes ... that you are " hoarding " a supply of houses for your own portfolio , denying young kiwi families a chance to get into their own homes ...
 
Which doesn't make you alot different from BD who openingly makes a career out of rentals ...
 
... and having property investors and landlords is a good thing .... in my less than humble opinion ..

GBH
There are properties just like the ones I own that are for sale today.
They are not selling, as the prices wanted are too high.
I don't think people should pay those prices asked.
I hope those prices come down and that owner occupiers would buy them.
I think the prices for them will drop.
Unlike BD, I am very comfortable with that.
 
 

Ok Spottie let's see if you mean it.
If I offered you 50% of the current market value of one of your houses would you sell it to me?
Lead the market by example.
 

That's easy BD,
They are not for sale.
If they were, and assuming I actually wanted to sell, I would list BELOW what the ones sitting there unsold are currently listed for.
If they sold they would of course be selling for 100% of the current market value.
That's how current market value works.

.... so , if a Mr Wang from Singapore or Shanghai trumps the local bidders , and offers you $ 50 000 more than a Kiwi young FHB couple , you'd spurn his offer ?

GBH
There are no local bidders, they are not for sale.

Bigdaddy, why did you refer to "Harcourts Auckland May 2014 Auction results" and then attach a link showing Harcourts Christchurch auction results?
The 95% you've quoted as being sold via auctions is for Christchurch not Auckland.
It almost appears as though you were deliberately attempting to misled others. 
I would expect auctions results in Christchurch to be strong seeing many homes were decimated by earthquakes.  Auckland city is a little different.  How about you provide the auction results from Barfoot & Thompson in Auckland over the last month to support your position? Then perhaps you could provide the Barfoot & Thompson auctions results for the same month last year to further support your theory of "pretty steady results".
You refer to others repeating untruths "often enough that people will believe it". Perhaps you need to look in the mirror before you throw the first stone.
 
 

Well spotted Triple; well spotted.
Spottie is embarassed Spottie didn't spot this.

I showed Christchurch as an example where auctions are very succcessful.
Auckland was a typo on my part as I was researching both .
No intention to deceive as it was clear to anyone, who had any intelligence it was Christchurch
Auckland figures for Harcourts as at 1st June are found at
http://cooperandcoauctions.harcourts.co.nz/
where 14 sold,  and 8 were passed in  and 3 sold soon after.
 
Barfoots Auckkand results are shown here:
http://www.barfoot.co.nz/Market-reports/2014/May/Residential-sales-repor...
Actual auction results are not shown but the number of houses sold in 2013 and 2014
are very similar so it would be fair to presume that the market has not tanked.

Typo.
Hmmmm.
Yeah, ok.
 
BD. what is Harcout's definition of "sold at auction" ?
Big difference between "under the hammer" sentiment and "sold following intense negotiation" sentiment.
 
FOMO has dissappered from the AKL market.
 
 

When real estate agents say 'sold by auction', they mean 'sold by an auction marketing campaign'
All agencies treat houses sold weeks after the auction passed in with no bids as a successful sale by acution.  Thats how they can report a 95% success rate, when if you go to the auction rooms you see 50% getting passed in.  That 5% that didn't sell by auction are where the vendor withdrew the house from the market.

By 'Auckland figures' do you mean north shore?

Here is barfoots from last week:
 
13 Willerton Avenue, New Lynn (522227) SOLD $1,031,000
Delightful 3 bedroom cottage on a large 1204sqm (more or less), fully fenced 
site with decking, garaging and plenty of off street parking. Stroll to shops 
and public transport.   
 
2A Mars Avenue, Sandringham (520159) SOLD $695,000
1920's classic 3 bedroom home with modern kitchen, polished floors, deck 
and off street parking. Central location. Close to shops, restaurants and 
public transport.
 
532 Mt Eden Road, Mt Eden (520568) SOLD $2,450,000
Six bedroom villa converted into 6 x 1 bedroom flats on a huge 1001sqm 
(more or less) site with modern kitchen and plenty of off street parking. 
 
Brilliant location.
   
18 Tyburnia Avenue, Mt Roskill (521848) SOLD $1,121,000
Three bedroom family home on a large 809sqm (more or less) site with 
modern kitchen, office/study, conservatory, swimming pool, garage and 
plenty of off street parking. Close to local amenities.   
   
4 Horopito Street, Mt Eden (521999) PASSED IN
Three bedroom villa on a fully fenced site with modern kitchen, open plan 
dining, deck, garage and off street parking. Easy motorway access and 
close to public transport.   
   
79A Oakdale Road, Hillsborough (522303) SOLD $861,000
Beautifully designed 5 bedroom home with designer kitchen, open plan 
dining, deck, double internal garage and off street parking. Sought after 
location. Stroll to schools, transport and motorway.   
   
2A Goldsmith Road, Epsom (520270) PASSED IN
Perfectly positioned 5 bedroom home with modern kitchen, open plan dining, 
great indoor/outdoor flow and double internal garage.   
   
6/ 5 Wesley Avenue, Mt Albert (521994) SOLD $590,000
Two bedroom home on a fully fenced site with office/study, deck and double 
carport. Minutes from shops, cinemas and school.   
   
60 Batkin Road, New Windsor (521870) PASSED IN
1910's four bedroom bungalow on a large 1287sqm (more or less) fully 
fenced site with modern kitchen, open plan dining, deck, garage and ample 
off street parking. Central location.   
   
1/ 26 West End Road, Herne Bay (521931) SOLD $459,000
One bedroom unit (in a block of 4) with polished floors and off street parking. 
Close to all local amenities.   
   
65 Willerton Avenue, New Lynn (521734) PASSED IN
Four bedroom home on a large 757sqm (more or less) flat site with modern 
kitchen, open plan dining, deck, double freestanding garage and off street 
parking. Great location.   
   
9A Gloria Avenue, Te Atatu Peninsula (522267) PASSED IN
Three bedroom home in a great location with open plan dining, conservatory, 
sunroom, deck, carport, internal access garage and plenty of off street 
parking. Close proximity to shops and motorway.  
   
92 Tiverton Street, New Windsor (521295) SOLD $660,000
Three bedroom bungalow on a fully fenced site with separate laundry and 
separate lounge.   
   
13 Tenterden Avenue, Mt Eden (521743) PASSED IN
Transitional 4 bedroom villa in central location with modern kitchen, open plan 
plan dining, polished floors, deck and double garage. Close to schools and 
public transport.   
   
59 Connaught Street, Blockhouse Bay (521571) NO BIDS
Substantial 1960s three bedroom home with modern kitchen, open plan 
dining, rumpus and single carport. Close to schools.   
   
46 Springwood Place, Mt Eden (522208) NO BIDS
Immaculately presented 3 bedroom home with modern kitchen, deck and off 
street parking. Close to local amenities.   
   
2B/ 6 Fisher Point Drive, Freemans Bay (522771) SOLD $550,000
Two bedroom apartment with modern kitchen, balcony and carpark plus 
access to swimming pool, sauna and gym facilities.   
   
27 Momona Road, Epsom (520020) SOLD $1,885,000
Brand new five bedroom home with modern kitchen, open plan dining, deck 
and double internal garage. Close to schools.   
   
119A The Drive, Epsom (521548) PASSED IN
Spacious five bedroom home with modern kitchen, north facing deck, double 
internal garage and off street parking. Close to schools. 
   
1704 Great North Road, Avondale (522110)             PASSED IN
Three bedroom 1920's bungalow with timber floors, double garage and off 
street parking. Popular location. Close to shops, public transport and 
schools.   
   
13 Glenalmond Road, Mt Eden (521076) SOLD $1,460,000
Fully renovated 4 bedroom bungalow with designer kitchen, polished floors, 
open plan living, deck, garage and plenty of off street parking. Minutes from 
all local amenities. Easy motorway access.   
   
70 Mt St John Avenue, Epsom (521821) PASSED IN
Brand new 4 bedroom home on a fully fenced site with designer kitchen, 
open plan dining, 2 separate lounges, double internal garage and plenty of 
off street parking. Superb location.   
   
1032B New North Road, Mt Albert (521868) NO BIDS
Brand new 4 bedroom home on a fully fenced site with designer kitchen, 
open plan living and double internal garage. Central location. 
   
118 Manukau Road, Epsom (521496) NO BIDS
Two bedroom unit in a prime location with modern kitchen, open plan dining, 
polished floors and off street parking. Cafes, shops and restaurants nearby. 
   
48 St Lukes Road, Mt Albert (521982) SOLD AUCTION DAY
Large, five bedroom family home with modern kitchen, office/study, rumpus, 
deck and plenty of off street parking. Prime location.   
   
539 Hillsborough Road, Mt Roskill (521826) AUCTION DAY
Four bedroom home on a large 946sqm (more or less) site in a convenient 
location with modern kitchen, open plan dining, deck, double internal garage 
and plenty of off street parking.   
   
56A South Kensington Way, Henderson (521876) WITHDRAWN
Four bedroom brick and tile home with modern kitchen, open plan dining, 
double garage and off street parking. Close to all local amenities. 
   
   
42A College Road, St Johns (522342) SOLD $590,000
Two bedroom brick and tile unit with open plan dining, internal access garage 
garage and off street parking. Handy to shops.   
   
2B Lauchlan Avenue, Epsom (521341) NO BIDS
Four bedroom home on a fully fenced site with designer kitchen, office/study, 
polished floors, deck and double garage. Great location. 
   
28A Denbigh Avenue, Mt Roskill (521303) SOLD $935,000
Centrally located 5 bedroom home with designer kitchen, office/study, open 
plan dining, deck, double internal garage and plenty of off street parking. 
Close to schools, shops and public transport.   
   
215 White Swan Road, Mt Roskill (522023) NO BIDS
Contemporary three bedroom apartment (in Block of 2) with modern kitchen, 
open plan living, balcony and double garage. Convenient location with all 
amenities nearby.   
   
217 White Swan Road, Mt Roskill (522053) NO BIDS
Three bedroom apartment in convenient location with modern kitchen, open 
plan dining, balcony and double garage. Close to all local amenities. 
   
7 Exotic Place, Massey (522026) PASSED IN
Spacious four bedroom home with modern kitchen, open plan living, double 
internal garage and off street parking. Close to schools and shops. 
   
 WITHDRAWN 1G/ 39 Mackelvie Street, Grey Lynn (521853)
   
2/ 33 Monteith Crescent, Remuera (522724) SOLD PRIOR $670,000
   
  51 Savoy Road, Glen Eden (522238)  SOLD PRIOR  $448,000
 
 
 Wednesday, June 04, 2014 
 
10:30am Residential Auctions  
 
 
 
2/22 Emerson Street, St Heliers (522550) SOLD $581,000
Two bedroom brick and tile unit with modern kitchen, open plan dining,polished floors and single carport. Very popular location.  
 
2D/ 8 Farnham Street, Parnell (521988) PASSED IN
North facing two bedroom home with modern kitchen, open plan dining, courtyard and covered car park. Close to shops, motorway and schools.  
 
 
 
1/ 46 The Drive, Epsom (521822) SOLD $651,000
Two bedroom brick and tile unit (in block of 3) with spacious lounge, covered patio and single garage. Central location. Handy to schools and shops.  
 
 
14 Lisburn Avenue, Glendowie (522017) SOLD $1,340,000
Three bedroom home on a large 809sqm (more or less) site with modern kitchen, office/study, polished floors, single garage and off street parking. Sought after location.  
 
102/ 28 Balfour Road, Parnell (POSTPONED) (522630)
 
 
98 Reihana Street, Orakei (521268) SOLD $905,000
Delightful three bedroom ex­state home with modern kitchen, polished floors, deck, garage and off street parking.
 
 
9A Aldred Road, Remuera (521754) PASSED IN
Four bedroom home on a fully fenced site with modern kitchen, office/study, open plan dining, balcony, double internal garage and off street parking. Wide views.  
 
4A/ 34 Liverpool Street, Auckland City (521819) PASSED IN
Two bedroom leasehold apartment with modern kitchen, open plan dining, balcony and double car park. Excellent city location.  
 
 WITHDRAWN 42 Oran Road, Panmure (521918) 
 
6B Ballarat Street, Ellerslie (520843) NO BIDS
Cleverly designed four bedroom home in handy location with modern kitchen,  office/study, open plan dining, carport and off street parking. Close to shops, parks and motorway access.  
 
370D St Johns Road, Meadowbank (522085) NO BIDS
Delightful two bedroom unit with modern kitchen, balcony, carport and off  street parking. Panoramic views.  
 
 
3 Waiatarua Road, Remuera (522333) NO BIDS
Classic 1940's three bedroom home with modern kitchen, polished floors, rumpus, internal access garage and off street parking. Great location. Sensational views.  
 
577A Hillsborough Road, Mt Roskill (522049) PASSED IN
Well constructed 4 bedroom home with modern kitchen, open plan dining, deck and double internal garage. Central location with easy access to shops, public transport and schools.  
 
228 Riddell Road, Glendowie (521921) NO BIDS
 Two bedroom Art Deco cottage on a fully fenced site with modern kitchen, patio and off street parking. Popular location. Close to schools.  
 
2/ 25 Meadowbank Road, Meadowbank (521737) NO BIDS
Immaculately presented 3 bedroom home with open plan dining, separate laundry, great indoor/outdoor flow and double carport. Walking distance to local shops.  
 
Thursday, June 05, 2014
1:30pm Residential Auctions 
 
2A/ 44 Aitken Terrace, Kingsland (522541) SOLD $545,000
Spacious two bedroom apartment with modern kitchen, open plan living, 
covered balcony and double garage. Central location. Close to all local 
amenities. 
 
7 Eaglehurst Road, Ellerslie (522317) NO BIDS
Three bedroom Art Deco home with modern kitchen, open plan dining, deck, 
single garage and off street parking. Easy motorway access. Close to public 
transport and school. 
 
22A McCracken Road, Mt Wellington (521225) SOLD $670,000
Three bedroom home with modern kitchen, office/study, open plan dining, 
double internal garage and off street parking. Close to public transport and 
shops. Easy motorway access. 
 
32B Powell Street, Avondale (522082) NO BIDS
Well presented 3 bedroom home with open plan dining, spacious lounge, 
deck and single carport. Prime location. Close to shops and public transport. 
Easy motorway access. 
 
60 Selwyn Road, Cockle Bay (521858) NO BIDS
Contemporary six bedroom home on a generous 1163sqm (more or less) 
site with designer kitchen, deck, swimming pool, double internal garage and 
plenty of off street parking. 
 
16 Hastie Avenue, Mangere Bridge (522391) SOLD $596,000
Three bedroom home on a large 812sqm (more or less) section in a 
convenient location. Easy access to motorway. 
 
1,2,3,4/18 Rodney Street, Otahuhu (522077) PASSED IN
Four x 2 bedroom brick and tile units on a separate titles with modern 
kitchen, open plan living and plenty of parking. Close to shops and public 
transport. Easy access to motorway. 
 
6 Rangipawa Road, One Tree Hill (517921) SOLD $750,000
Charming 1940's three bedroom home with modern kitchen, polished floors, 
open plan dining, deck, carport and off street parking. Close to shops, cafes 
and motorway. 
 
A616/176 Broadway, Newmarket (521603) PASSED IN
Well maintained 3 bedroom apartment with modern kitchen, open plan living, 
balcony and garaging. Minutes from shops, public transport and restaurants. 
 
11/ 8 Shackleton Road, Mt Eden (522084) SOLD $360,000
Two bedroom unit in a great location with modern kitchen, open plan dining, 
balcony and off street parking. Close to shops, schools and public transport. 
 
6 Korcula Place, Avondale (521664) SOLD $445,000
Three bedroom home on a large 713sqm (more or less) full site with 
separate lounge, deck, double garage and plenty of off street parking. 
 
18 Connolly Avenue, Three Kings (521917) NO BIDS
Beautifully presented ex­state 3 bedroom home with modern kitchen, self 
contained office, carport and off street parking. Short walk to shops and 
public transport. 
 
14 Burnley Terrace, Mt Eden (522511) SOLD $975,000
Centrally located three bedroom home with modern kitchen, open plan dining, 
dining, separate lounge and off street parking. Easy access to public 
transport, shops and schools. 
 
2/ 83 Gardner Avenue, New Lynn (522533) SOLD $470,000
Well presented two bedroom unit with open plan living, courtyard and single 
garage. Convenient location. Close to shops and public transport. 
 
92 Ash Street, Avondale(POSTPONED) (522596)
Three bedroom bungalow with modern kitchen, polished floors, open plan 
dining, deck, garage and off street parking. 
 
WITHDRAWN 45 Water Street, Otahuhu (521645)
 
 WITHDRAWN 12/63 Galway Street, Onehunga (522598)
 
 SOLD PRIOR 17A Wallath Road, Onehunga (522069)
 
 SOLD PRIOR 15 Swaffield Road, Papatoetoe (521506)
 
 SOLD PRIOR 15F/ 3 Whitaker Place, Auckland City (521077)
 69A Line Road, Glen Innes (522127) SOLD PRIOR $386,000
 
4 Dempsey Street, Remuera (POSTPONED) (521702) 

That's 43% sold or sold prior
Of the 47% not sold
24% passed in
21% no bids
7% withdrawn from sale
4% postponed

Typo BD. What a lot of rot. You should be in parliament. You would fit in very well especially in NZ First.

Thanks for the data dtcarter.
 
I spoke with a B&T branch manager today and i asked him how the B&T Wednesday auctions went. 
He replied, "a bit better than last week, around 47% sold under the hammer."
 
I then asked him what numbers were selling under the hammer same time last year.
He replied, "about 80%".
 
I think it's difficult for anyone to argue that auctions aren't currently running slower than last year.  I'm not sure what effect this had on prices to date.  It appears good property is still selling but there is a larger gap between buyer and vendor expectations.
 
If the trend continues then it would seem likely prices will fall.

This week
 
51% sold (allot of sold prior rather than at auction)
22% passed in
19% no bids
 
So the market has cooled massively since last year, but it's not as if things have fallen off a cliff. Good properties are still selling at auction, and average properties are selling a couple of weeks later once the vendors have dropped their expectations.  Those slower sales are dragging the increases down, but absolute falls seem a long way away.  Not many properties taking months to sell like this one http://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auction-...