QV says property values are still rising in Auckland and Christchurch but falling in many other regions

QV says property values are still rising in Auckland and Christchurch but falling in many other regions

The housing market continues to have a split personalty, with property values continuing to rise in Auckland and Christchurch, while values in Wellington and Dunedin are falling, according to Quotable Value (QV).

"Residential property values in Auckland and Christchurch are still increasing at a similar rate to what they were in June last year," QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said.

"While values in Wellington and Dunedin are showing a downward trend this month, as are a number of other provincial centres around the country."

QV's Residential Price Movement Index shows that national property values in June were 8% higher than in June last year and 2.1% higher than they were March.

That means they are now 15% higher than they were in the previous market peak of late 2007, QV said.

In the Auckland region property values have increased by 2.7% over the three months to June and 12.3% over the year to June.

The biggest increases were in Manukau East where values rose by 4.3% over the three months to June, followed by the North Shore-North Harbour, where values where values rose 4.2% over the same period.

All of the main centres in Auckland recorded double digit value growth in the year to June, with the biggest increases occurring in Waitakere, 15.2%, followed by Manukau 13.8%, North Shore 13.2%, Papakura 13.2%, Franklin 12.2%, Auckland City (within the former City council boundaries) 11.4%, and Rodney 10.1%.

Property values in Christchurch have risen 2.5% in the three months to June and are up 7% compared with a year earlier, QV said.

The biggest increase occurred in Southwest Christchurch, where values are increased 3.5% in the three months to June and are up 11% compared with a year ago.

Values have also risen in Hamilton and Tauranga.

In Hamilton property values were up 1.1% in the three months to June and 4.9% compared with a year ago.

In Tauranga values were up 2% in the last three months and 5.5% for the year.

In the Wellington Region values dropped by 0.4% over the last three months but were still 1.8% higher than a year ago.

QV valuer Kerry Buckeridge said the Wellington region had been fairly quiet.

"There is a slight drop in listings in Wellington which is normal for the winter season and that has been helping real estate agents to sell some houses which have been on the market for a while, so that's positive," he said.

"People are being very careful and cautious with their property decisions.

"It is noted that average days to sell have now reportedly increased to in excess of 40, which is very high for Wellington." 

In Dunedin property values declined by 0.4% in the three months to June but were still up 1.1% on a year earlier.

Other areas showing a  decline in values in the three months to June were Whangarei -1.7%, Rotorua -3.1%, Palmerston North -0.5%, Wanganui -2%, Gisborne -2.6%, Queenstown-Lakes -0.5%.

Increases were posted in Taupo 3.3%, New Plymouth 0.7%, Invercargill 2.2%, and Marlborough 1.4%. 

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Okay , so what do we expect when we have an open door immigration policy ?
Do they honestly expect demand for housing to fall and prices to fall in tandem when just about every incoming flight has a planeload  of new migrants on board  ?
Which immigrants go to Wellington or Dunedin ?
What do they call doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome?
Madness ?

GV's getting updated this year in auckland too?
Every home owner will get a nice little letter informing them that they are now $200k or more richer.
Lets see what effect that has... Last time this happened to the same degree was the GV updates of 2005.  Something about a GV confirmation of property value (authority of the information source) that creates a wealth effect much greater than that created by any media hype or bbq talk of how much auckland property is worth.

Uncle Len is likely to break his election promise of the capped 2.5% rates rise, and don't forget that 10% cap that is due to come off soon..

No wonder. QV has my two bedroom flat valued on it's evaluer site today, with a estimated value of three hundred and sixteen million dollars. Yay! Time to refinance and skip this ship.

Up is up no matter what spin you put on it.
Two years ago the gloomsters were certain that the party was over.
And the people who believed them;  where are they now?
Paying rent for ever.

Greg, as usual you've cherry picked data to support pushing up property prices. 
The QV article actually says Nationwide residential property values, when adjusted for inflation, remain below the 2007 peak by 1.3%. 
The QV article also says:
"Sales volumes and home loan approvals (new and existing) are also down considerably at between 15-20% less than the same time last year."

You've outdone yourself, when I first read this article I wondered how Triple was going to try and spin this week. 
Prices month on month - up
Prices from three months ago - up
Prices from a year ago - up
Who do you think is reading, and taking action, based on your posts?  Certainly isn't Greg. 

I go to the B&T auctions on Wednesdays 10.30am to 12.30pm most weeks.  These auctions cover the Bays.  And anyone who actually knows the maket in the Bays knows that the over $2M bracked is very slow.

The market is slowing so i guess there is a good chance he got a good buy.

Kimy, if you're talking about the property i think you are in St Heliers then it is a nice looking home - it's positioned on the northern side of St Heliers road (CV $1.54M) and just east of Long Drive.  That property didn't sell at auction, it had been listed for about 3 months and it sold for around $2.03M not $2.3M - apparently the vendor was going overseas.
Your friend is kind of correct that closeby properties are worth a lot as there are plenty of tennis courts and pools etc.  But if we are talking about the same property, the reason your friend thinks its worth a lot is because the adjoining neighbour sold their place recently for $2.6M.  But here's the funny catch - i actually know the agent who sold the neighbouring property for $2.6M and he said that it was an abberation and he couldn't believe what he got for it. 
The vendor you're referring to thought (after seeing his neighbour sell for $2.6M) that he could also achieve the same/similar money for his property....hence the property didn't sell for months until the vendor finally dropped the price to just over $2M. 
The reality in the Bays area is : buyers expect a lot when they're paying $2M and above.  Most people can't afford this so there is limited competition.  These properties usually dont move fast and purchasers have high expectations..

"you've outdone yourself" - Thanks Happy123!
I don't know what Greg's doing but he certainly hasn't been at the Auctions lately. 
Are you disagreeing with the quote I've posted from the QV report. if so, can you please tell me which part is incorrect?

Good to hear you've got skin in the game and I respect your opinion whether I agree or not.  I just worry for you because you've obviously cashed up way too early.  You'll be waiting a long time for those buying opportunities. 

Thanks Happy.  I haven't cashed up but I did sell one property recently (2 months ago) and i have to admit I got good money for it.
I guess where I'm different to some people is that i think if the market slows/drops (and i don't mean a devastating crash) then opportunities appear for both first time home buyers and investors.  My experience is you win when you buy, not sell.  Its almost impossible to get a good deal when there are 10 other bidders frantically waving their hands in the air.  Therefore i see the slowdown as a good thing, not a bad thing - in fact i think it's exciting.
I'll be the first to admit if the market changes and picks up.  But I cant see that happening soon unless overseas money starts pouring in again like last year.  If that happens - then i concede prices will keep going up.
At the end of the day Happy, even if there is a correction, i don't think it will last forever as Kiwis are unlikely to put there money anywhere else.

There are a lot of people waiting for that slow down so they can buy in, the very fact that there are so many FHB, investors and other purchases all watching eargerly suggests that any slowdown will be very short lived. 
For the record I invest only in Auckland so my comments reflect the Auckland market.  My guess is that prices won't flatten or drop until 2017 - 2018. 

You should give it up Triple... all's well in Landlord land mate and no matter how you fuss over the figures it only gets better.
Best you don't leave it too late and get in and buy a property soon.

YL, you should maximise the yield by accepting your rent as well as buy/sell your properties in bitcoin.  Not only you get the (big) capital gain, your bitcoins will appreciate over time.. It's harder to track and a real win-win.

Ha ha  Chairman... I will leave it to someone else to do the trail blaze.

I'd consider it, but it does require pockets deep enough to pay the bank AND Hold on bitcoin

Your Landlord, I own residential and commercial property. 
Just because i own property doesn't mean I'm delusional about property values like some commentators here.
Prices are overcooked.  The overseas investors/money launderers have split.  The market is slowing.  You're the one that needs to give it up :-)

Then you better start selling... quick.

I can afford to hold and the market needs a correction. 

That's good to read.
I now know that despite all your railing against property you are in fact a very sensible man. Your key words are "hold on."

I'm not against property - quite the opposite.
And yes the operative word was "hold".  I've never once said that property prices will crash and never go up again - not once!
What i am saying is that in my opinion the current prices are divorced from returns and incomes.  This cannot continue. It does not make sense and it must stop at some stage.
Property investment has done me well and i realise i have been fortunate.  However this site has some Jonny come lately's who have made a few dollars and now think they're the bomb.  I believe they should re-adjust their ego's and learn some humility. 
Personally I think the market needs a correction.  And hopefully this gives some hard working Kiwi's the opportunity to get on the ladder. 

When it comes to PI, people seems to have very short memory.  

Fot those who are pushing the idea of limiting foreign buyers to buy new houses only, read this:

Triple is give us week by week up dates and he is right onto the market.
The change in the current market is mind blowing it is changing so fast.
The best the rest of you can do is get away from your computers take a week of your Job (just over broke) and get an up to date understanding of the market by going to all the Auction rooms you can.
I have never seen so may house passed in at Auction and are now priced on trade me for 5 years
Browns Bay: 6 Auction, 45 Priced, 36 for rent
Torbay Bay: 9 Auction, 52 Priced, 23 for rent
Forrest Hill: 5 Auction, 17 Priced, 25 for rent. (Hottest market on Shore)
Most of these priced properties have bean to auction and passed in.
Wow if this is not changing to a buyers market what is.
Tell us what’s happening in your areas guys and girls.
Really looking forward to see what market looks like in 3 months time.

The vast majority of sellers don't have to sell if push comes to shove.
Likewise the vast majority of buyers don't have to buy if push comes to shove.
Only a small minority of buyers and sellers are in panic mode, hence counting the number of properties listed for sale doesn't mean much.  

I agree with you BigDaddy that most buyers and sellers don't have to do anything.
However the market is only valued on properties which have recently sold.  So if there are say 460,000 dwellings in Auckland and only 24,000 are sold each year then it's only 5% of the properties setting the theoretical value for the other 95%.
Only a small percentage of properties need to sell (for more or less) to change the market.

don't just be "looking forward" to the 3 month market, make some predictions where folks can see them, and we'll see if you're reading the market right...  And you'll be able to see who else is willing to put their theories to the test as well.

Agreed Triple. It's like the share market. A company may have 10 million shares on issue with a market vaue of $20 each.
Then some clown sells 500 shares at $15 and the whole company's value slumps by $50M.
This is a stupid system and applies not only to shares but to house prices as well, giving a totally false picture of the facts.

? 10,000,000 shares;   500 sold @ $15.00  even if they're the only shares sold that month, it doesn't drop the share value IIRC.  with such a small ratio it just means someone snatches up a quick deal.  After all , whats the remaining buy/sell weights/wedge?

This is a ineresting article. Anyone who thinks business as usual will prevail should have a read.
Warning: it's quite long.

Wow that/he throws a punch.........

She's politicking !  There is no invisible hand of the market......these kind of articles just tell me that some people with a recognised level of education have absolutely no idea of how Politics, legislation and bureaucracies work.

I think you mean they have no idea how you "think" these things work, that doesnt surpise me.
She is right on the stats and her view point, IMHO.
"The problem, it seems, is a loss of balance. In the pursuit of profit, everything in the world - the earth itself, other species, knowledge and indeed, other people - has been turned into a "resource" to be exploited, often without care or conscience."
"Since the 1990s, income inequality in New Zealand has soared."
The data indeed seems to show such a change in the 1990s.
"More than a change of government, what is needed is a change of heart.
We must demand of our leaders - and ourselves - that at the very least, the land, the sea and our young people are cared for. Without them, there is no future."
Totally agree with her.

No market is left to its own devices.......You have no idea how much interference there is in any market......all that regulation and taxation has an effect on every market and it distorts the market.......you seem unable to grasp this concept !! How the heck can any market self-correct when there is so much interference???? Governments running up huge debts, QE, massive social spending, 80% - 85% of legislation and all regulation and then throw in the enormous amount of policies and just tell me where is the invisible hand of the market? How can any market sefl-regulate when you have so many people relying on it not to achieve that??
If you want a future for the young then you had better start to understand the real problems !!!! 
I have continually pointed you in the direction of where the problems are and you continually avoid having a look......you complain about business, debts, house prices, poverty levels, banks, capitalism, libertarians etc but you're incapable of looking in your own backyard !!!
I think all you're really wanting is to be looked after......and you don't care who has to fund you!!!  Do you get some weird kick out of people being in poverty???
And as for that Professor she neither understands history and cause and affect!! No wonder I have no faith in Universities when they have a propensity to churn out BS.

House sales show big drop in “perfect storm”
Even the headlines are changing (NZ Herald today)
Shamubeel Eaqub NZIER chief economist said volumes were one of the most important housing market indicators. A decline in volumes usually happens slightly ahead of price changing.

Shamubeel has been making predictions on housing for years; I'm yet to see one come true.