Net migration hit 56,275 in the March year; More heat for Auckland's housing market

Net migration hit 56,275 in the March year; More heat for Auckland's housing market

Net migration surged to a new record high in the March year, with the population increasing by 56,275 new arrivals over the 12 month period. That compares to 31,914 in the year to March 2014 and just 2,542 in the year to March 2013.

There was a net migration gain of 4,051 in March, compared with 2,897 in February. 

With more than half of the new arrivals expected to settle in Auckland and construction of new homes in the region lagging well behind demand, Auckland's housing bubble shows no sign of bursting any time soon.

At least 2,133 of the new arrivals in March said they intended to live in Auckland, although the actual number could be much higher because another 1,220 new arrivals had unknown destinations and many of those would also be expected to settle in Auckland.

The biggest single source of new migrants was India, with a net gain in population of 12,112 from that country in the year to March, followed by 8317 from China and Hong Kong, 4924 from the UK, 3951 from the Philippines, 2841 from France, 2658 from Germany, 1495 from South Africa, 1389 from Samoa, 1182 from Japan and 1051 from Fiji.

There was a net loss of 2328 people to Australia in the March year.

Westpac senior economist Felix Delbruck said the March month's net immigration of 5,000 was near the average of the last six months, with the trend appearing to have finally stabilised at a very high level with the numbers of New Zealanders moving to Australia hovering at multi-decade lows and arrivals of foreign migrants just below recent historic peaks.

"Accordingly, there was nothing in today's data to change our view that annual net immigration will approach 60,000 later this year. The weak Australian economy is keeping New Zealanders at home. And indeed, a surprisingly large number of Kiwis are coming back - perhaps some of these are people who left after the Canterbury earthquakes and are now returning," Delbruck said.

"New Zealand's construction-fuelled economic upturn is continuing to draw in foreign workers in historically very large numbers. And the inflow of international students remains high, as it has been ever since visa rule changes made it easier for students to work, though it appears to have peaked late last year."

"These supportive factors won't last forever, but they are unlikely to weaken seriously any time soon. Accordingly, we expect population growth - already the fastest since 2003 - to accelerate further this year, to just under 2%, and remain high into 2016. That is good news from the point of view of economic growth and will also help alleviate labour market pressures, but it also means that Auckland's housing squeeze is likely to get worse before it gets better," said Delbruck.

Here's more from Statistics NZ

New Zealand had a seasonally adjusted net gain (more arrivals than departures) of 5,000 migrants in March 2015, consistent with the average monthly net gain of 4,900 since August 2014. The apparent levelling of net migration since August comes after two years of increasing net gains, following net losses averaging 300 per month between March 2011 and August 2012.

The annual net gain of migrants was a record-high 56,300 in the March 2015 year, well up from 31,900 in the March 2014 year, and 2,500 in the March 2013 year. Migrant arrivals were up 16 percent from the March 2014 year, while departures were down 13 percent.

The net loss of 2,300 people to Australia in the March 2015 year was the smallest since the March 1992 year (also 2,300). The biggest net gains of migrants in the March 2015 year were from India (12,100), China (7,700), the United Kingdom (4,900), and the Philippines (4,000). About three-quarters of migrants from India, and half of migrants from China, arrived on student visas.

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OCR cuts, record high migration, surging property market, pumping jobs market = Rockstar Economy! Well, I guess some doomsters have egg on their face. Sorry that you sold your Auckland property or didn't buy one.

OCR hasn't changed, population ponzi ongoing, massive property bubble and a few jobs on the back of that = a hollowed out economy being sold out to stay afloat. Well, I guess the speculators have counted their chickens before they've hatched. Sorry that you can't all sell at once.

So half to 3 quarters of the chinese and indians are on student visas? Anyone know what they need to do to get in on this? Assume an expensive seat in a tertiary provider enrolled etc before being granted 1? Where is all the capacity at the uni's to make room for them?

Probably same situation as we found at a Takapuna private school - overseas students were preferred over Kiwis due to the higher fees

It is however a private school, so none of our business.

Sorry - should have wrote state integrated school

I think they need to be enrolled at an approved tertiary institution on an approved course with good enough English as a second language to do it. Yes, they also pay the full fees. No idea on capacity I would assume that for say 15% (typical?) foreign students there are extra lecturers employed to cope. Not sure why that matters btw? The Govn I think only funds for so many NZ students, any above the "quota" dont get Govn funding? so the Uni would lose money on these?

Yeah and prob explains why the student loans tightening up was done... restrict NZ students who are wasting every ones time in uni (failed already too many times, or too old) to allow more foreign students in. Uni's are not allowed to prioritize international students over NZ students by their own account.

I dont see why to old is a restriction. If someone at 65 wants a degree/MA and kudos to them, they should not be blocked.

Lincoln has 35% International students, primarily mainland Chinese (higher per centage at postgraduate level, 42-44% from memory). Concerns have been raised over English language requirements. Never assume extra capacity employed to deal with higher roles :) (Lincoln has lost 100 staff in past year, not all academic; some have been contracted back...).

Most campuses have excess capacity through declining roles (Auckland-based institutions probably not experiencing this). The Australian situation is sobering (though predictable, indeed predicted).

Have to say many NZ-born students lack English skills required to complete tertiary degree. They don't necessarily lack the self-belief.

Need an offer of place from uni, med check, proof of funds to pay fees etc, proof of funds for ticket out of nz once studies complete... Can change to work residence if get a job offer from an accredited provider (prob need degree to get this), then if work for 2 years earning over 45k in an area that is deemed a skill shortage can move to permanent resident. Still not sure how uni's are making room for them all though

The balloon has gone up on the international-student-industry in Australia

Corruption rife in international student sector of leading Australian universities, ABC's Four Corners reports

Australia's leading universities, including the prestigious University of Sydney and the Australian National University, have engaged corrupt education agents who are falsifying the academic records of prospective international students to ensure their acceptance into the Australian tertiary system, according to an investigation by ABC TV's Four Corners.

Degrees of Deception - ABC 4Corners Program

Right now the country's 40 universities are pulling in billions of dollars from students who are desperate for a degree from an Australian university and the possibility of a job and permanent residency. But to ensure a steady flow of students from overseas, universities have had to ensure their entry requirements are sufficiently low.

This week, Four Corners provides alarming evidence of corruption among the network of overseas agents who tout for business on universities' behalf. "The risk is they're going to put applicants through to the university with fake qualifications or who they know have cheated on tests, or who are trying to undertake some sort of visa fraud." - Corruption investigator

To watch the video you need a VPN geo-blocker - otherwise there is a brief transcript

Any clamp down over there will just see more flow into NZ which is prob still a second choice to AU uni's.

The numbers already coming into NZ are huge. I just cant see how it's physically happening without uni's running out of seats/lecturers etc

I believe you'll find the new enrolments of NZ domestic students is way down reflecting a string of changes to student loans, allowances and repayment schedules over the last 4 years. There is more margin in overseas students for NZ tertiary institutes - so making room for more, I believe, is a deliberate strategy.

Thank you, i`d watched the video with the help of purvpn geo blocker.

Adding 56k people to NZ.
If they spend $30k per year each, that is $1.7 billion added to GDP and that is just in one year of immigration.

Now how much extra GST is that for the government? No need to tax the rich just bring in more people to pay taxes.

Oh and what did our GDP grow by? 0.1% - about the amount of extra spending by immigrants. Withouthout immigration we would be in recession

Good on ya Mr Key for keeping the economy from going into recession

Be nice if we got regular reports on per capita GDP

All's well in landlord land!!!!