Barfoot & Thompson says uncertainty over whether current prices provide value for money has seen sales volumes dive

Housing sales slumped in February for Auckland's largest real estate agency, with most of the fall off occurring in the middle to bottom end of the market.

Barfoot and Thompson sold just 556 homes in February, the lowest number of sales it has made in any month since December 2010 and the lowest number of sales in the month of February for at least 16 years.

The agency sold 698 homes in February last year and 843 in February 2015. Last year's February sales volumes were 142, or 20%, higher than February this year.

At the same time the number of new listings the company is signing up is soaring, which is also pushing up its inventory of unsold homes available for sale.

Barfoot received 2295 new listings in February compared to 2060 in February last year and ,1771 in February 2015.

It was the highest number of new listings the company has signed up in any month since May 2002.

That pushed the total number of listings the company has on its books up to 4546, which is the highest it has been since April 2012.

The median price of homes sold by the company dropped $26,500, or 3.1%, to $820,000 in February from $846,500 in January, while the average price increased to a new record high of $944,574 compared to $913,938 in January.

That was because demand remains strong for more expensive homes but has dropped off markedly for the cheaper properties, which has pushed the average sales price up.

"What is clear from the results is that prices at the top end of the market were not under downward pressure," Barfoot & Thompson director Kiri Barfoot said.

"Competition for properties around the $1 million mark was strong.

"Conversely sales under $750,000 were down a third on those for 2016 and under half those in 2015.

"At present the market has divided around the $750,000 mark.

"Above this point sales numbers and prices remain consistent.

"Below it, uncertainty has developed as to whether asking prices represent value for money and sale numbers have fallen," she said.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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141 Comments

We can imagine BE saying "Well, I thought Auckland sales might fall a bit but it is the sign of strong support for our policies and our comprehensive housing policy"
Roll on March...April...September.

*ALERT* * ALERT * *ALERT*
This is public broadcast WARNING to all property investors. To lock in your capital gains you must put your rental property on the market immediately. It’s not to late, for maximum effectiveness and capital reward we must do it all together at once.

So it begins..... Tony Alexander proves to be the tipping point.

Who wants a $750K house that will be in an area with probable welfare issues such as Glen Eden/Massey etc. Not worth the rental return.

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Thats a cracker of a euphemism.

"uncertainty has developed as to whether asking prices represent value for money "

Let me put that in plain english for you:
It has become clear the properties are massively overvalued.

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Adding to the the above if you are thinking of becoming a FHB - don't.

I disagree. If you are a FHB, be a very astute one - for all the properties you would like to own, put in very low offers - this includes properties passed in. - in fact, ask RE's what properties have been passed in at auction and ask if the vendor would be willing to consider an offer. Don't be pushed to go higher, but walk away if your offer isn't accepted. You may even find they come back to you days later and ask if the offer is still on the table. Make sure you have conditions of a builders report including P tests....

Good advice hobo, I did exactly that when prices dropped in 2009 during GFC. We purchased our house back then, it had GV of 485,000, a previous offer of 425,000 from another buyer had been turned down a few weeks earlier as seller wanted higher price. I thought we were being a bit cheeky making an unconditional offer of 415,000, but it was accepted, as prices were falling. We had been turned down with low offers on a couple of other previous properties, with the sellers telling us they felt insulted and to basically get lost, but when prices are on the way down the game changes to the buyers favour. We still live in the 415,000 property, similar now are selling for 1 million, on North Shore, which I find absolutely ridiculous overpriced.

Hey optimist , you must be a migrant , making cheeky offers 20% below the asking price.

Good on you mate !

why must he been an migrant?
I know plenty of kiwis that have done and accepted the same during the last two down turns.

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you're being polite..

in todays market, you literally get shit for a Million bucks :)

and it's sold to us as ' A do-up with good bones, a blank canvas, rear as hens teeth, an opportunity to make it your own' etc etc ...it goes on.

That's a big slump.
I suspect we won't see much drop in the overall median sales price, because there will be proportionately more volume at the high end, but that there will be a significant drop in the median values in the low-mid value range

Wait until interest rates really start rising, which is inevitable. Never mind, the Herald, etc, will still be rambling on about the "housing shortage" even when the auctions stop drawing bids...all is well.

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My partner and I could, technically buy a house in Auckland right now at the entry level end of the spectrum. But we aren't going to, because they are WAY overvalued still.

There's further to drop yet. Waiting game.

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Yep I would suggest giving it at least four to six months to bottom out. I'm expecting at good -20% drop for Auckland.

Yeah I called 10-20% drop on another thread here last night. Probably tending towards 10% overall, but 20% in the low / mid range which would be welcome news for FHBs

20% drop - that will be the case for some individuals depending on circumstances, but it's unlikely to be 20% drop average, because for most who can afford to, will wait it out.

What we're seeing is the LVR rules really hitting investors leveraged up i.e. they've been stopped in their tracks.

In saying that, there are still other more astute investors who have been waiting in the wings now offering low offers willing to walk away if the vendor is not willing to sell.

Now might be the right time for a FTB to do the same - offer low offers as there are vendors who have to sell, but as you say, could be better bargains in six months time....

Wait 4-6mths, sounds like advice from someone who hasn't actively bought in a slump. Best advice I had pre-GFC from a holder of commercial property, net worth 50-100 million, was there will be a deep recession. He said wait at least 2 years form the start, best time to buy is about 6 months after articles in papers, about how much individual profiled people have lost in the property market. Then wait 6 months from this point as it takes a while for forced sales to work way through system.

I agree MJA it will take awhile and it will be long and deep. We have just seen what changes in regulation in NZ & China can impact on speculation in housing.
This speculation has shut out younger people unless their mom & pop forks out a large deposit.
The fact the NZ government has taken so long to introduce any regulation regarding investors who borrow while leaving the door wide open to foreign speculators and new migrants shows callous disregard for young home buyers.
How anyone like a bank economist ban pretend government policy has not played a large hand in this appears dishonest to me.

@ mja: Well you're not taking in to account that certain Foreign Buyers could return to the market on mass again if : 1) China relaxes it's Capital Flight policies or 2) Investors find a consistent way around the new rules.

Hence why 6 months might be enough of a window of opportunity for Kiwi to purchase property in their own land.

True, it could well be necessary to elect a more Kiwi-oriented government too, one not just committed to selling off NZ to all comers.

Nonsense CJ099, you are being dishonest when you say you have been predicting -20%. You have been predicting a total property collapse and at least -50%.
Twenty percent drop is nothing like a crash and more like a very realistic correction. That said, what FHB is going to be able to afford an 800k priced home, when they couldn't afford a one million dollar one?

Blue Meanie you're and RE how can you talk about honesty!! Hah! And I've been predicting a -20% drop for the last six months when I picked up on what was happening with Vancouver and China.

And a -20% drop is a CRASH get REAL!! You're so and Real Estate Agent and you should be absolutely ashamed of yourself, you hypocrite!!!!!

You've clearly never been through a property crash before, well I have in the UK and I tried to warn everyone about this one!

How about dropping your commission rates to 1%? If that's good enough for London Estate Agents it's should be good enough for the likes of you.

Good point cj...

Is this crash you're talking about cj009? http://nzh.tw/11811276 "The size of the SuperCity's $2m suburb club has doubled in the last three months..."
The author and paper must all be trolls for daring to disagree with you... right?

Oh good grief! Everyone knows that the Herald is always a few months behind the curb and if you actually read that article it's still founded mostly on old stats data and is only talking about the more expensive suburbs in Auckland. So it's not discussing what's happening on the wider sales picture with in Auckland where sales and prices currently are falling.

Have you not been reading any or the recent property articles even on this website for the last two months which has reported huge sales declines particularly for Auckland?

The more desirable suburbs will naturally be bolstered by Investors who are cashing up for retirement and wanting to settle in these more affluent area. I currently see it as Kiwi investors selling among themselves and selling off properties that they know will likely to drop most of their capital gain. Plus it's only been a few weeks since the new Overseas Investors restrictions have fully come in to force, so it will take a while for the full effects to settle in.

I sorry that your so sad as to desperate cling on to any hope that the Auckland housing market is going to massively rise again, all the recent stats are stacked against you. That's just how it is, nothing more. Everyone else can see what's happening.

Oh and by the way; TradeMe is currently at 10526 property listings for Auckland, that's 500+ more than last week, that's a lot in just a short space of time.

"Behind the curb" sounds like the child of two idiomatic expressions, "kicked to the curb" and "behind the curve".

So does "Splitting hairs" :P

I know so many who are not buying as are overpriced and not worth the asking.

Barfoots churn rate up. Here is a question, Barfoots currently has 4546 Auckland properties on its books. On Trade me , Barffots has 2425 listings, on REINZ 3547 listings. Using the REINZ numbers that is 1000 properties sitting in the shadows. Oh, that's over 8 months of inventory using February numbers.

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This would come as no surprise to many of us on this site. The info we get here is weeks if not months ahead of MSM. So we aint seen nothing yet...just wait until MSM catches up with Int.co and the punters panic. Soft landing...I don't think so. Carnage.

The MSM will be going into overdrive if this continues. Expect the usual suspects to drag out the same old spruiker headlines..
BUYING TIME!
First Home Finally!
Ronovator says INVEST NOW!
etc,etc

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There will be no hiding this news. This ponzi is what the economy has been based on...pumped up prices and leveraging off the home and rental atm. Many jobs are linked.

So don't just expect a price drop, expect a contracting of incomes as well. This is the scarry part. Cascade or compound effect that gets harder and harder to pull out of. JK timed it. As did Big Daddy.

Wait on- National require the Ponzi to be fed.
If Kiwis are backing off then expect the immigration gates to collapse - 100,000 here we come. A $2 shop every 50 m on the high streets.

Bill English:

"Young Kiwis are not yet suited to the jobs? Too bad - we'll just import a replacement workforce."

"Young Kiwis can't afford the prices we want for our investment properties? Too bad - we'll just import more buyers from overseas. Good luck for the future, young New Zealanders!"

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Highest listing since 2002, lowest sales since 2010....ouch! This trend has just begun.

When something turns down from a massively overbought position, it rarely ends well.

[ Personal abuse removed. You know better. Don't do it. Ed ]

I'd be stocking up on fresh underwear if I had just bought. Plus put the Fan away in a cupboard.

I think you will see this more from now. Will be interesting if we start to see mortgagee sales numbers increasing....

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The ponzi nature of free capital gain speculation starting to look grim. Lots of headwinds. Chinese cash retreat, interest rates on the up, immigration policy under threat, more tenant protection being proposed, higher building standards for investment housing being proposed, property tax treatment being discussed, and DTI ratios being discussed. No doubt property and housing policy will be the crux of this election, especially overseas ownership for those that pay no tax in NZ. Dont forget Brexit, Trump, and Winston. None of this points to continuation of the rampant capital gains of the last five years.

Yes there remain supply side issues - land cost, council, building materials etc, infrastructure, council, RMA, council, but if you adjust the demand side it will remove some pressure. Anyone holding crazy debt over reasonable DTI should be very concerned. RB, Govt and other banks have been advising ponzi debt as having an increasingly negative risk profile. Even bigdaddy has been calling approaching train crash. Professional investors have culled their weaker assets already and built a strong equity buffer to ride the next couple of years out in comfort.

Specuvestors, especially those late to the party, have not. I expect the usual suspects to be along soon pointing fingers at anything but themselves. Unfair equity requirement changes, disenfranchised should move away from jobs, youth should work harder, tenants should pay more, employers should pay more, rates are to high etc etc. What causes such blindness to these not insignificant approaching headwinds...greed?

Music is stopping, who will bail them out....?

Yep, interesting times. Interesting that there is still incredible demand for quality accommodation in Auckland.

You're right that professional investors have been quietly divesting less quality properties including those with deferred maintenance.

With the new unitary plan in Auckland, you may find a FHBuyer become a FHBuilder - this will alleviate some demand.

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Auckland the city of Sales...

I will be brave and say that this is the NATURAL CORRECTION that many politicians have talked about and its occurred with them not having to do anything.

The high end won't drop until there's a recession and all the over-levered big swingers get flushed out.

In the meantime the drop at the lower end is welcome news. Basically means that the investor-targeting measures are starting to bite.

Nah. The targeting mesure may have brought things forward a few months, but were too little too late. It was gonna happen anyway. Much bigger forces are at play now... the gummit has no control over them.

The lowest number of sales in the month of February for "at least 16 years".

Please can you tell us which Feb was worse than this one because "at least" sounds like it could be somewhere in the 90's.

Lowest February sales in at least 16 years delboy ? really ? this cannot surely be !?
Alternativefact : Best February in 16 years !
That's how Zachary Smith will be calling it !
I recall reading here from a fellow Zach spruiker how all the Chinese would be arriving in February to buy up large !

So median went down by 25k and mean went up by 31k. My interpretation as follows:

a) if you bought a crappy house in Ranui (west auckland) for $600,000 last year, just to "get in" the market.. you're probably not gonna like the next little while

b) if you have a house in a nice area, particularly in auckland city that is worth ~1 million bucks.. you're probably still going to get a pretty decent price. From the auctions I've seen, anything around ~1 million has plenty of interest.

  • https://youtu.be/h4RyWFYCz1Q?t=286
  • Who was paying attention?

    Maybe the Emperor's new clothes have now been revealed! Just saying! Sooner or later sense has to prevail about value for money and sustainability!

    are you a desperate first home buyer? http://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auction-...

    what a slogan.

    haha yip, something like that... versus something like this: http://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/Listing.aspx?id=1258129398

    As a 'desperate first home buyer,' you will have to fork out fork out $122 000 deposit and be paying $680 a week mortgage. Add on an extra 30 bucks for rates and you're paying $710 a week...
    The CV on this house is $340k... I dunno... you'd have to be on $110k a year... hmmm! High prices are good thing right?

    Haha I think the response to that will be "no, but I get the feeling you are a desperate first time property investor?"

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    Buyers - bide your time. It's still early days.

    Patience is a virtue - and likely to be rewarded.

    Those on this site late last year who were optimistic of a continuing property party this year claiming REINZ figures in November 2016 were just abnormal result may now appreciate that the market has finally peaked and is overvalued. I have noted that my first property in 1982 was three times my then salary - its (i.e. the same house) value is now 12 times the same current salary.
    Barfoots stress that it is only the lower end of the market that has dropped. However, in price rises it is the expensive houses that first rise followed by the less expensive properties, and when prices fall it is the less expensive ones that lead. This is what has happened in the past and there is sound logical reason why this occurrs. Watch the results for top end market properties over the next few months or so.
    My concern now is that there is going to be a number of hard working young kiwis who struggled to get onto the property market over the last few years who are now going to see their equity wiped out especially in forced sales if interest rates rise over the next year or two.
    The share market crash of 1987 - from which many baby boomer retirees still hold bitter memories - generally involved Mums and Dads losing only $10-20,000 in today's terms while still able to hold onto their home. For many younger first home buyers, the loss of equity stands to be in the $100,000 plus range and a possibly a loss of their home. At best, first home owners are going to see their hard earned and saved equity of $250,00 halved.

    It won't be just young FHBs. Guess how they got funding...yep..mummy and daddy guarantees.

    There are also many mummy and daddys who got in on the property never fails wagon (peer pressure)....just like they did with the finance coy's and the sharemarket madness all those years ago! History repeats ...here we go again.

    I've been looking forward to this. POP! goes the champagne.

    Don't get your calculations. A fhb could lose 125k? Assuming they paid 500k for this house a year or so ago and it's now 'worth' 600k that's a drop of 600/125 or 20%, or only 25k of their equity,
    The world won't end for the fhb and the banks won't panic. Too many negative people on this board. A stopped clock is correct twice a day. And they will be right occasionally, but I'd recommend they start seeing the glass half full and get with the momentum of the rest of the world . They'll be a lot happier with life

    Low sales are a sign of Success.....

    Only fleeting mention on the herald. Funny that

    Unbeleivable that there are so many negative jealous people on here that live in Auckland.
    The market has not said at all that the prices in Auckland are overpriced, although with the rental returns they certainly are!
    The major reason the sales numbers are down is solely down to,the fact the Banks are requiring a 40 per cent deposit on any new borrowings as well as all the other lending that they previously did and then only needed 20 per cent.
    This is affecting most people especially in Auckland.
    As always, when some people struggle there will be others that do very nicely out of the situation.
    I will be very surprised if there is not an alteration from the various Banks as to lending criteria in the next 6 months as they make money from lending.

    Nah. Time to get real.

    Some people do care about other Kiwis and the upcoming generations, and reckon that home ownership is a good thing and should be fostered again just as it was for previous generations (including you).

    If earlier governments hadn't stepped in and shaken things up earlier in NZ's history none of you investors would have houses anyway. Time to stop patting oneself on one's back and instead consider the country that will be left to future generations.

    Yes the market will simply get tweaked by the banks if things get quiet. If you have a decent house in a good area the price is not going to fall. Auckland is moving outwards and in case you have not noticed, commuting anywhere even in the weekends now is becoming a nightmare. Sure there may be some relative "bargains" to be had with shitty houses in shitty areas or if your hours outside the CBD but no one is going to sell unless they have to or want to move up the ladder. You simply don't sell your house then decide to rent unless your stupid in my book. This site is full of very negative people who appear to envy anyone who currently owns a home.

    Don't kid yourself.....All prices rose during the madness, so why would they not all drop when the tide goes out? There will be a reset across the board.

    I own a mortgage free home and do not "envy other home owners".

    What I cannot abide is the mantra that "property prices always go up" - citing supply constraints, traffic jams yadee yadee yah.

    London and Tokyo had these issues in the early 90's and both had property crashes. And if you really want to get scary look at the 70% drop to Hong Kong prices post 1997

    This bubble is a result of banks fuelling a self-serving "ponzi" which benefits them and is to the detriment of most New Zealanders.

    Yes I agree and those negative people are probably single as who would put up with all the complaining.Go out have some drinks at the comedy club and lighten up.

    You and "the man" seem to be the ones being negative and complaining about what is happening now. Everyone else seems OK with the news story that I can see.

    Carlos - it might surprise you but there are plenty in AKL who own very nice homes but along with me they have children and we can all see the destruction that JK and the Nats have done to their futures and Kiwi society.
    My children have asked me for advice and the first thing I tell them is to understand who has made these things happen and when they vote make it count. I also ask them to discuss this with their peers and make sure they all get to vote in Sept.
    Lastly I have told them to wait a while. All things eventually revert to the mean and Kiwi investing history is full of poor sods joining the party just before the big crash.

    Does flinging the word "jealous" around act as some sort of pacifier for you, a bit like small kid sucking its thumb

    The Herald can't help but put their best spin on this story.

    Auckland house sale volumes hit 6-years low, prices hit all-time high

    Of course they could equally have written the headline using the same info - Auckland house sale volumes hit 16 year lows and prices tumble but that might have scared the horses.

    Don't get your hopes up for a crash. Just can't see interest rates going up enough to create forced sellers, or any action being taken on immigration, overseas students and overseas money which currently have no limit. And if there is a correction, it will be shallow and short lived as there is pent up demand from those wanting to join the ponzi scheme and buy an investment property or two so they're no longer missing out. Including many on this forum i hazard a guess. I would love a crash, a reckoning to the ponzi scheme, and a return to houses as homes not an investment. None of that is going to happen without a change in policy, which the majority will never vote for. More of the same, with national a shoe in again this election.

    Don't write off a Labour, NZ First, Greens, Opportunities Party, Maori Party, Mana Party Coalition just yet ...

    Can't see the Maori Party ever going into coalition with Labour - given the majority of the Maori seats are held by Labour.

    That's why the Maori Party find themselves a 'natural' coalition party for National - National doesn't contest the Maori seats.

    Kelvin Davis' list placing is one to watch. There is no doubt that both he and Hone Harawira are good for Tai Tokerau and can work very effectively together. That region needs them both to my mind - and it would be wonderful to see Labour give Kelvin Davis a high list placing such that the region can have both those two very capable people advocating for it.

    @ Harrison: Did you take in to account the crack down on Shadow Banking that's currently happening in China. I recon a lot of Foreign Investors won't be able to renew their loans and will be forced in to selling their overseas property.

    Anyone who's been using NZ property to launder funds illegally removed from PRC or anywhere else may be well advised to convert that to a form that's less of a sitting duck for seizure.

    Hobo, do you think this mosh mash of non productive people would be good for NZ?
    Please advise me of the good work that any of these parties have done for NZ?

    NZ would be a completely different place in a lot of negative ways if it were not for the Labour party. I am assuming you are either being deliberately ignorant, or trolling.

    Have a read of the first Labour government changes here as they were the biggest and best:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Labour_Government_of_New_Zealand

    Unfortunately they have lost their way a bit over time from great beginnings.

    However National have always been bad for the country as a whole, and seem to be getting worse.

    TM0.9 - pls advise me of the good work that JK and the Nats did in the last 9 years.....

    I have friends that had high value houses in the us when the GFC hit, they get proper F'ed just like everyone

    The tide moves all houses, perhaps even more so the "discretionary" value ones at the very top, as the buyers are even more astute..to the changing financial situation.... the mortgage sales at the bottom are brutal but thats stupidity at play... and the banks simply have more exposiure in that space... banks have never lent 80% on 3 mill homes unless other security is on hand

    Double-GZ will be interested in this, a recent sale in the Auckland DGZ. Sold by auction a week or so ago:

    https://www.barfoot.co.nz/588142#Video

    I have been watching this house quite closely. Less than a year ago there was an older house on the site and it was a cross lease. The houses on each lease were actually joined, possibly a relic from the era when they had to be joined to have two houses on one section. The other house had become very run down and was sold at auction for just over a million. It was demolished and a brand new house built in its place. Soon after this property was bought for around one and a half million and the house demolished/moved as well. Very quickly a nice new house was built and it was sold at auction last week.
    Can anyone here estimate how much such a house would cost to build? I think the land was made freehold too which probably cost around 100K - just a guess. Anyway it seems to me that a huge profit has been made. Buy property for around 1.5M, demolish house, make freehold, build quality new house, sell for....wait for it...$3,880,000.

    You found your way back from space so soon.

    OMG have you been released out of the prison now Zach? Yes, it's March!
    You've been a naughty naughty boy Zach ;-)

    The Robinsons finally found enough deutronium for the Jupiter2 to escape the prison planet. It was quite tedious waiting for them to do that. Yes, you will find a more mature and empathetic ZS from now on.
    Anyway what do you think of the above scenario. I'm surprised not more run down houses in the DGZ get that treatment. It could be the next big thing.

    Zach, quite sad that you were brainwashed whist in custody. Reading the book of Chaston does that to people of weak morals The real estate market changed considerably while you have been away. How many sales did Barfoots do in February.

    That's funny as I actually listened to the audio book of A Clockwork Orange during my sojourn in the wilderness.
    I will admit that sales have been slow but in Epsom/Greenlane things appear to be normal with the same number of listings and all houses being sold eventually. I think the premium areas will remain good investments due to ongoing globalism. People from all over the world want their children to go to good Western schools and jet travel is cheap and getting cheaper.

    Amazing indoor/outdoor flow from the living area - love it!! A new house built in a classic style, on a smallish section. Who would have thought it would go for that much...I'm flabbergasted! Must be the DGZ magic :-)

    Yes it was very sympathetically done and in a very nice street. My prediction was 3.2M tops.

    It just goes to show that if you own in good areas you have nothing to worry about despite the doom and gloom everyone here is 'celebrating' with joy LOL

    "It just goes to show that if you own in good areas you have nothing to worry about......"

    Famous last words, Double-GZ.

    Watch this space......

    Oh good grief. Double DG is Zach (Quack) smith. Someone having a conversation with them self online, surely can't possibly be the 'voice' of the AKL property ponzi, could they?

    Trolling again blue meanie. At least Zachary and DG are entertaining. :)

    Do you know what trolling is bro CJ099? I think you would find you fit into the description rather well. I love your passive aggression too. You remain wrong on all your posts. Predicting massive property crashes, usually somewhere between 20-50% and posting it often... goodness me. Then when anyone points out your errors, they are somehow RE trolls. Where is this 'significant' drop you have been hyping on about? All your wishful thinking will not make it so. It's about the catastrophic decisions made by our political masters and their vested interests that have brought about the housing crisis in Auckland and now spilling out across NZ. Nothing is changing and I can assure you, anyone capable of laundering money out of any country will continue to do so. Your posts are hardly entertaining, you say one thing... "China's stopped capital outflows... Auckland property prices will crash!"
    So let me remind you, you are wrong, you have been wrong and will continue to be wrong.
    Oh and just a reminder at how wrong you are, I am not a real estate agent, nor do I have any vested interest in the property market booming or busting... I just won't let ridiculous comments go unchallenged, be those yours or one of our politicians...

    blue meanie: Well your are just spouting dribble. You're very obviously and RE who is very scared of loosing his/her job. You know what tough luck! You've had it far too good for far too long.

    And I have been predicting a -20% drop. I haven't predicted anything larger than that unless economic indicators highlight it could be larger. And yes the 'Trump Effect' on China causing them actually restrict capital flight and camp down on money laundering (Shadow banking). Does play a significant role and this has been pointed out several times in the main stream media.

    So meanie, what's your excuse as to the current property downward trend in sales? Can you actually answer that in a rational manner with evidence? I think NOT because your an uneducated RE. And by the way adopting a egotistical or villainous username is a dead give away of an RE. :P

    It's creepy - weird at best - what he does with his right hand in the video.

    EEEuuuuuuw, yes, pocket billiards in plain view.

    Feng shui helps.

    Tony Alexander would not approve

    New house great location always a premium.Old villas can look amazing but always coldish in winter.

    Some folk are going to come to the shocking realization that markets can actually GO DOWN !

    Cant say they were not warned

    Some folk are going to come to the shocking realization that markets can actually GO UP !

    Cant say they were not warned

    This chat is like a dog chasing its tail. We will never reach a conclusion...

    Yes agree some folk but not all,to some it dosnt Matter unless you live in Matamata then it dosnt really Matter matter All depends if you are gambling or not and what your risk levels are.Some may fret from not thinking about thier game plan properly live and learn is what life is about

    Looking dire in Christchurch with massive oversupply. When I drive through Long Bay and Orewa and see the hundreds of new sections I wonder when the the over supply glut will hit Auckland.
    http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/property/90012513/christchurchs-housing-pa...

    This person purchased this property for $1.3 million in May 2016 and now with no extra work done to the property he wants $1.6 Million!
    Good luck!!

    http://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auction-...

    The kitchen, bathroom and laundry tub look new. Not $300k worth of work. Everyone seems to flip this property once per year.

    This has to be the biggest profit to be made from it

    Clearly it has little value as a home, it's a much better financial asset. If someone buys it to live in they will be a bag holder stuck with the house and the debt.

    The figures don't seem to add up. Even with two houses and the section subdivided the total would be well less than 2M, judging from the value of similar half section properties close by.

    And it's Titirangi! Should be less than $1m :-)

    Obviously it was purchase to be flicked off, over priced I think, even if the house itself was worth $900K would you think the 450m2 sub dividable land is worth $700k?

    Facts are facts the market is cooling off but it should be no surprise to anyone we are is this phase of the property cycle. To those who are not familiar with cycles find someone thats been around for a few cycles and ask questions and look over history. We are in the 3 years of quiet/stable/slow drop in prices. Who knows it may be 5% it could be 10% but look at history through the GFC we had 10% during the biggest world financial crisis since the Great Depresssion. It is an important part of the cycle, wakes people up, weeds out those under capitalised and gives new entrants some very good opportunities. Election year always adds an uncertainty but whatever happens the market will grow legs again in 2020. I often have had negative comments around cycles but only from those who do not understand economics and put most of their energy into being negative/told you so etc. Human nature is to rubbish what you don't understand or have clearly missed out on. For 35 years I have invested in property good times and bad, seen and heard all the negativity many many times but heres the truth - the market doesn't care, understand it be part of it or just get left behind. Oh and if you can't afford Auckland lots of opportunities in the likes of Parakai or Ngatea depends where you work. As a nation we are changing like most of the world to a lower homeownership rate look at Germany around 40% not everyone wants to own a house, have that committment etc we need to get over it renting suits alot of people, mobile,flexible, no maintainance etc

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    Shoreman I have invested in property for 33 years. I think you and I are lucky in that we were born during the boomer generation years. Assets were cheap in the 1980's and 90's and it was easier to pay them off, move around, acquire etc. Not so easy now when you enter the Auckland market as a young couple and face a ten times income loan for your first home let alone a rental. Some will say they should leave but they were born there. Their families , friends, relations , jobs and recreational activities are there. They should be able to stay there just like boomers who often carried on living where they were born.

    I agree with you observations and, pragmatically, with your advice. But I do not like where it is taking NZ at all.
    It leads to a split where some people call others rubbish, and taunt others who have missed out, when all they have done is underestimate how egregiously the politicians will mismanage the money and credit system to advantage one political group over another.

    you could be wrong, very wrong, i'd be very careful out there, we are getting to the end of a supercycle.

    Look up the Kondratiev wave

    In economics, Kondratiev waves (also called supercycles, great surges, long waves, K-waves or the long economic cycle) are proposed cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy.[1]

    It is stated that the period of a wave ranges from forty to sixty years, the cycles consist of alternating intervals between high sectoral growth and intervals of relatively slow growth

    Historian Peter Turchin adds to this thinking in his new book Ages of Discord where he illustrates how historical cycles are about social disintegration and integration. They are about three primary forces all of which we have today and the current economic cycles reflect,
    1. An over-supply of labor that suppresses real (inflation-adjusted) wage,
    2. An overproduction of essentially parasitic Elites
    3. A deterioration in central state finances (over-indebtedness, decline in tax revenues, increase in state dependents, fiscal burdens of war, etc.)
    Investors need to understand and prepare for the fact we are only at the beginning of this economic shift downward in the trend of the cycles cited above. The already failing Debt Super Cycle will end as a consequence.

    Gordon T Long postulates by summarizing that all of the above leads to and further assists in driving two key long term structural changes now underway:
    First, there is now a clear shift in attitude within the electorate of the Developed Economies towards Anti-Globalization. Existing Free Trade Agreements, Tariffs and Protectionism are all now on the table.
    Secondly, the Debt Super Cycle is coming to an end. It is the fuse that will ignite this combustible mixture. The explosive mixture is about the Fiat paper reserves underpinning the global economic system which are presently built on failing wealth creation which is required to maintain the collateral values supporting the pyramided debt leverage levels through financial "gimmicks" such as rehypothecation. The approximate $600T derivative SWAPs market is the explosive within this mixture.

    https://matasii.com/cycles-the-end-of-the-debt-super-cycle-2/

    https://matasii.com/the-coming-financial-implosion-is-not-going-to-be-ab...

    Gordonif youmhave been in property,for 33 years then you will know that it hasnot always been easy to buy a home.
    Back in the late 70s and 80s there was only a certain amount of money that Banks had to,lend on mortgages and they only accepted who they wanted to lend to who had the best case!

    Houses in NZ are generally still reasonable except for Auckland, but many have sat on the sideline for many years when they should have bought back then.

    Don't know what you get out of this baby boomer thing, that they were lucky to be born when they were.
    Load of cobblers, every generation is lucky to be born when they are, and everyone has to make the most of their opportunities.
    It has been made harder recently by the increased LVRs for investors to be able to build a portfolio, but I am telling you straight, if you sit on your rear end moaning about things, then you will achieve nothing whatsoever.
    I have personally achieved financial freedom and have assisted several others with property decisions, and all are very thankful for this.
    I know you will come back at me with your continued crap,regarding Christchurch prices and rents dropping, but you are a narrow minded man that wouldn't have a clue about housing in Christchurch.
    Disregard everything you read and open your eyes and talk to investors in Christchurch and you will find that the opportunities over the past few years and into the future in Christchurch are extremely bright!!!!!!

    Sorry if I hit a raw nerve The Boy. I was actually responding to Shoreman who actually sounds a more reasonable and less arrogant person than you. Fact. Christchurch's rents are dropping. Fact. Christchurch house prices are dropping. You have got very angry and very negative. It is everyone else's fault that your so called portfolio is going backwards. You are the one at fault. You chose as you say you did to buy all your rentals in a town that was hit hard by a terrible earthquake. Rule 1. Diversify. Stop being angry and get some quality assets out ofChristchurch. It will make your life a bit more complicated but it is worth it.

    Gordon, haven't hit a raw nerve at all.
    Just get sick,of your constant jibes regarding Christchurch when you haven't got a clue!!!
    Don't care if prices drop as I never sell positively geared property and will go to my kids when I move on, so it is no worry to me!
    Our rents are actually up overall as our commercial property went up and our interest rates are down to,what we fixed some at, so once again good for landlords in Chch.
    Haven't got negative at all, positive about property in Chch, negative about the negative people on here!
    Chch is the place to buy Gordon at the moment while the market is flat as it is going to bloom in the future as major companies move into Chch.

    Be curious to hear your views on this article then TM2:

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/90012513/christchurchs-housing-...

    Me too.

    The evidence is mounting counter to TM2's ultra-bullish Christchurch claims.

    BTW, can I please see a list of 'major companies' moving to ChCh?

    What drug is The Boy using? Not only are people leaving Christchurch but businesses are also. Let's face it. If you could get your Board to agree to invest in Christchurch what risks and costs are they facing. Expensive building costs, expensive insurance costs, expensive transport costs and expensive staff costs if you can get them to come to Christchurch and then stay. But the big problem is the possibility of another decent earthquake let alone the ongoing minor ones. The risks are too high. In fact companies have left and those remaining have to be weighing up all the risks. End result is an oversupply of housing that struggles to beat inflation and reducing rents. Empty houses everywhere and no likelihood of them ever being totally filled.

    Gordon In part I agree in part I don't. There so many more opportunities now in types of employment the ease of accessing or selling ideas/merchantdise with the internet etc. My experience around 20-30 years olds including my children, friends relatives,neighbours, work enviorment etc is that there are lots of things to soak up one's money,like coffees/new cellphones/cafes/thousands of restaurants/overseas holidays/nights out on the town/ new cars etc all of which as I see it standard life expectations now which we didn't have to waste our money on. Different times same formula to get ahead don't spend your money save it if want a home.

    Do you think you and I would have turned down such distractions and cash draining activities if they existed in the 80's Shoreman? I am not sure I would have. I have certainly blown some money on cars.

    For me personally yes, I was very determined to get ahead and chose to go without even in our era, worked overseas and saved as much as I could to get my first house, it was never easy, many people my age I know still don't own a house because they chose not to go without. I know many young people who have committed to achieving home onwership and are doing really well it can be done

    Interesting all the young people I know of buying a property either stayed with mum and dad until they could afford it, or had direct loan/gift from mum or dad. Unfortunately those two options aren't available for everyone. For example parents might live in the regions away from the work, and either won't or can't help with deposit. Then remember that most young people have student loans, meaning that for an average wage they will lose 25-33 % to tax plus and extra 12% to student loan. Cost of living and rent in New Zealand is high too. Point is a lot of people are getting reamed. It's easier to head overseas, and earn better money, and come back later. Is that really the New Zealand we want, is it an economic necessity for it to be that way. I don't think so.

    Cigarettes, watering holes and expensive cars in a regulated market were the money wasters of the 1980s from my boyhood memories.

    And I vaguely remember Pizza Hut pizzas were $25 (not adjusted for inflation!)

    The good old days. When pepole actually worked for a living.

    September 2018 (on Friday) is when the real (global) crash will start!!

    World economy will bounce along till then, with a few frights on the way..

    But in NZ confidence will be slowly eroded thru increasing job losses, the growing trend towards online purchasing (onshore and off) will hit retail, who in turn will drop staff, renege on property leases etc. Uncertainty on our exports to the USA, Bank funding for developers and ma and pa home buyers and even home renovators drying up.

    The current general malaise which has hit the Auckland (and other centres) RE market.

    Harder for Aucklanders to take the money and run!

    RE price drops are happening in Auckland the drops will radiate out as usual. however quicker drops in the regions can be expected as the exodus out of Auckland slows dramatically because of low (and slowing) market activity here.

    Investors will soon realize the vulnerability of buying RE in the regions, as the drops occur and the already nervous banks see the declining equity.

    And then there is the interest rates increases! But finally light at the end of the tunnel for those with stacks of cash to invest and who have been getting a terrible ROI, hmmmmm, but do we, can we, really trust the banks with our cash? really?

    Gordon, the drug I am using is called housing investment.
    You should try it as it works if you are prepared to work at it.
    People are not leaving a Chch and business is moving i to a Chch.
    Yes the central city has been slow to be rebuilt but,it,is getting there now, and it will be the place to live, I will guarantee that.
    As for earthquakes, you need to harden up and stop whining.
    Far safer now than it ever has been, and still money to be made into the future.
    Over supply of housing is not a major,as they will be in existence for the flocks that will want to make Chch their home rather than putting up with problems that Auckland now has!

    Your optimism is inspiring :-) Your great grandchildren will thank you for your foresight.

    As I said what drug are you on. Everyone living out of Christchurch regularly meet people who have left your city since the terrible quake. Over it. Christchurch will gradually but surely become a smaller city as more of your residents realize life is too short to put up with the lack of career opportunities, the lack of infrastructure, the empty houses, the sad red areas, the weather extremes, the constant shakes, being made redundant as businesses close or move out etc etc. You are so obsessed with protecting what is not real that it makes me think more and more your whole story about your portfolio is just a fabrication. No one would be so negligent as to have all ones eggs in such a risky poor performing market. As a prospective grandad I have learnt one thing. Diversify to lessen risk.

    it is interesting how the national government has never taken the opportunities that the Christchurch earthquake handed them.
    they should have facilitated business to move from Auckland, when the costs of land and labour was at it cheapest

    you could never convince AKL staff to sell akl and nuy chch if they had of they would have locked themselves out of auckland forever I had neighbours who sold akl 4 years ago to goto wgtn.... they sold for 1.265 mill, now that site is 1.8mil

    Gordon, it is a fabrication, so,take me up on the offer of the $100k or an amount of your choosing.
    Let me know when we are on and we can then announce the result on here.

    No I don't gamble unlike you with your portfolio( if it exists). I laugh when I think about your name. As if we should be impressed when someone says they own a few rentals in Christchurch. Wow. Some of the landlords in Auckland could own most of the houses in Christchurch as they are so cheap and getting cheaper by the month.

    This article in the Herald in January about job vacancies around the country is interesting.
    Job market booming with surge of new listings on Trade Me
    Even with massive immigration we still have more job vacancies than ever. Especially in Auckland, BOP and Waikato. Even Christchurch grew a bit with hospitality industries filling the void left by departing tradies.

    Plenty of hospitality jobs for the recent STEM grads zach?