The downturn in auction sales may have hit the bottom in Auckland but don't expect a return to the frenzied bidding of the last few years

By Greg Ninness

There are tentative signs the substantial decline in the number of Auckland properties being auctioned may have bottomed out.

The table below shows the number of Auckland residential property auctions monitored in interest.co.nz's Residential Auctions Results page from March to August this year.

This captures the majority of residential auctions in Auckland but not all of them, and includes most of the properties auctioned by Barfoot & Thompson, Harcourts, Bayleys, Ray White City Apartments and City Sales.

It shows that the number of auctioned properties declined steadily from 1452 in March to 628 in July and then remained virtually unchanged at 630 in August.

It's probably too early to say that the flattening out in numbers that occurred in August was a turning point, and early indications are that auction numbers for this month are still very weak.

However the percentage of properties that were being sold at auction (either under the hammer or within a day of the auction) also took an interesting turn in August.

From March to July the sales rate was remarkably consistent at 37% to 39%, then in August it jumped up to 45%.

Again, one month's figures do not make a trend, but taken together, the flattening of auction numbers in August and the lift in the sales ratio might suggest that the recent downturn has bottomed out, or is close to doing so.

Anecdotally, we are hearing reports that vendors are starting to accept the fact the market has cooled and are being more realistic in their price expectations, and that will help properties to sell.

However we do not expect a return of the frenzied auction activity that characterised the Auckland market until late last year, at least in the short to medium term.

It is only in comparatively recent times that auctions have played such a major role in the Auckland market.

A general rule of thumb used to be that selling by auction was a good option for exceptional properties for which there was strong demand, and those that were auctioned tended to be at the top end of the market.

But then with Auckland's growing housing shortage, the influx of Chinese capital that poured into Auckland's housing market over the last few years and mortgage interest rates at record lows, it was as though almost every property started meeting that criteria. And auction room feeding frenzies ensued.

So perhaps the new normal for auctions is just the old normal returning.

But we are living in very interesting times.

One way or another our political landscape will have changed by the end of this month, although it could be weeks after that before the final shape of our next government is known.

How that affects the traditional spring surge of the property market, we will have to wait and see.

Auckland residential property auctions monitored by interest.co.nz

March to August 2017

Month Total auctions Total sold % Sold
March 1452 562 39%
April 917 342 37%
May 883 317 36%
June 760 275 36%
July 628 235 37%
August 630 282 45%

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200 Comments

up
14

The "growing housing shortage" due to rampant resident and temp migrant workers (270,000 2016) and the "influx of Chinese capital" (whoops sorry forget there is no evidence of that).

Yes, not sure why the reference to the Chinese. National have repeatedly assured NZ foreign demand is not an issue. I can only imagine they'd label this reference "xenophobic ".

As long as the soft housing market continues in Auckland (and granted it won't continue indefinitely) I don't see auction clearance rates rising much further. In any case, the increase recorded for August may well be a mere "blip" on the scale - so I wouldn't go reading too much into it at this stage.

It's pretty clear to most of us here that there are significant downsides to selling by auction right now.

But there may still be advantages for real estate agents (alone) in the auction method. So vendors (and purchasers), scrutinise their advice carefully - which you should do always anyway.

Auction clearance rates would soar if we had a wave of mortgagee sales.

Mortgagee sales and/or specuvestors rushing to cut their losses.

Trends down not up for housing
Hold onto your cash if you're still in Godszone
Leave talk for spruikers stuck with depreciating assets trying to kid themselves alls well
Psychology of the market is mixed at best so why waste your gun powder ( cash ) now unless you believe the Chinese will be returning soon ?

HAIL THE ALMIGHTY HONORARY SIR JOHN KEY!
Sir John Key sells off Parnell mansion for $20M. With a CV of $13M this represents a massive 54% over the CV. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=1191...

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24

To a Chinese buyer?
At least he practices what he preached - "sell your assets, offshore if possible"

Well, to be fair, a buyer in China, which could mean a couple of things, it is a Chinese buyer, and they are a Chinese resident. Look away, nothing to see here.

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15

ironic or something else, is this not the guy that told us foreign buyers are not an issue and refused to ban non residents from buying or even implement a register to see how big it really was.
we now see the end game. #all about me me me
when future generations look back they will see him for what he really was
as those of us that remember the Muldoon years and the pain and devastation small rural communities went through afterwards trying to fix the situation he created.
he reminds me of the new CEO that comes in all talk and bluster, does nothing for three years but talk, meetings and fancy nonsense ideas.
leaves before he gets the push and leaves the mess for the next guy to fix up

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27

Nasty man.
Conned the NZ public (including me in his first term) with his 'nice guy' facade and promises to fix housing, but underneath it all he was selling NZ down the river.
Scum.

Yes I wouldn't be surprised if he was about to flee this country, once Joe Public finally figures out just how much he and National supported and nurtured a false economy as a get rick quick scheme. By allowing money launders to flood in unregulated and asset strip at our expense.

Or John Key simply sees the market is about to plummet and/or future capital gains tax incoming (as Labour nudge ahead in the polls), so is just wanting to capture as much CG's cash as he can, while he can.

Dear Gingerninja,

That doesn't explain why he's kept $4.0million worth of the land - and is going to build a new house on it. (And no doubt the new house will cost millions to build.)

The announcement this week pushing an inner city charter school to outsource their tennis/bball court needs sets up for the lazy Parnel dollar or possibly he will provide such an opportunity at no charge to Youthtown in lieu of the $50000 a year for life DELIVERED FROM NEWZEALANDERS!

JK - gets to have just what he wants in this life.

Uncanny guy.

Oh so he hasn't just walked away with a plot of prime land and 20million?

Kiwis are so naive. They really think an ex banker is a nice guy to have a beer with. They really believe he has amnesia every time kee is asked a question. They really think 75,000 immigrants who have nothing in common with us are not just here to exploit us.

Well done to John Key, it's sad all the people trying to cut you down because you have done better than them. It's petty envy. You have done better than me too and I say, well done

Ironic? So ironic it could be the new dictionary meaning of the word.
Think you sum it up pretty nicely at the end there.

The purchaser is Zài háng jūn, senior PRC official and former director of Oravida, who has been posted to NZ to lead the One Belt One Road initiative here.
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Yes, just kidding.

So the Chinese government brought it

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24

Based on those figures he has personally pocketed four or five million by doing nothing about the housing crisis or foreign buyers since 2014.

And still retains the tennis court which is around 650sqm (reportedly worth $5M) to build a future 'city pad' for when he visits Auckland to do his shopping.

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20

He should plant it with bananas and declare a republic.

You never know. He might just offer it to Jacinda should she become our PM. It's in DGZ so Jacinda can build her family there and don't have to worry about sending her kids to a charter school in the future LOL!

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12

She might have to worry her kids aren't exposed to enough English language. LOL!

Probably the biggest issue is where will Max Key film all of his music videos now?

You mean someone cares?

The announcement this week pushing an inner city charter school to outsource their tennis/bball court needs sets up for the lazy Parnel dollar or possibly he will provide such an opportunity at no charge to Youthtown in lieu of the $50000 a year for life DELIVERED FROM NEWZEALANDERS!

Hi DGZ,

Enjoy your weekend - in your Remuera shopping pad! (-;

LOL nah, I'll be at the Auckland Home Show all day ^^

Don't you ever do kiwi type things?

You know

Go sailing or play rugby or train for a marathon, or drink jugs of beer at the Gluepot, or even go help out at the Mangere Marae

Haha , where's mangere

I'm sure he knows as he goes out to do his meet-and-greets at Auckland International Airport

What's a Marae haha

Sorry I only see your post now. I was at the Auckland Home Show yesterday from 10am till 9pm and after spending between $15k and $20k later, the shopping is done for another year. This is a great Kiwi event and it is the only show large enough where you can get access to all the tradies and the latest home technology. It is a very Kiwi thing and there were thousands of Kiwis at the show!! FYI the money I spent are both for my own home as well as my rental properties.

Was the property on the open market in NZ or only in China/chinese websites????

All that tax-free money he's made!

Heck, why bother investing in business?

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10

His selling is a clear indication that housing ponzi is over atlease for few years and / or he too knows now that National loosing is inevetiable and CGT.

up
11

Yes it's interesting that Mr Key has sold before the full effects of the Anti Money Laundering regulations kicked in. In all seriousness DGZ who do you think has that kind of cash at $20million? And there's no mention of the buyer in that article.

So in all logical likely hood it is highly likely that Mr Key is selling his swanky mansion to a drug dealer!
Most of the AML regulations don't kick in until mid 2018.

Remember each year about $1.35 billion from the proceeds of fraud and illegal drugs is laundered through everyday in New Zealand.
https://www.justice.govt.nz/justice-sector-policy/key-initiatives/aml-cft/

If the buyer is Chinese there status will be now very high.

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12

Is the buyer somebody JK's been dishing out favours to, I wonder? There are many forms a payoff can take to circumvent the bribery laws.

JK certainly did not want house prices to stop going up as all his property investments have increased by huge amounts. (and tax free capital gains)
I guess he can now see it is the time to sell before the market comes back.
Politics is all about self interest!!

Why would Johnny Key SELL ?
For a nice fat profit at near peak is why
John Key wasnt the greatest PM but he is one of the smartest on the planet with his investments
Oh yes he had a blind trust once upon a time poor John
I'm sure John won't be using all the profits on Auckland housing right now either
Of course spruikers will say otherwise

Is he returning to HELEN'sville?

No. Rumour has it he is returning to Shanghai LOL!

up
13

He should have been 'shanghaied' many years ago

Why not? If he is more welcomed in Shanghai. I think he is a great PM of NZ, and most of my friends like him.

Cherrytree, you and your friends are probably wealthy property investors who have been handsomely rewarded by National.

Yes, some of them have investment properties but most of them have not. I think if Ms Ardern become a PM of NZ and she works hard for the country I will like her as well. People may have different value but whoever is elected as the leader of this country we should respect him or her. I know it's hard to please everyone no matter who is PM.

I wonder whether the new owner will register the property with the Historic Places Trust?

If not, perhaps the "Historically High Priced Places Trust"?

Goodness me! Where do people get that sort of money to buy a house from? And in a so-called weak market!!

up
10

Wonder if NZ citizenship comes with the property?

Perhaps citizenship was part of the package when they bought John Key.

Ask Mr Thompson!

The new buyer Chong Kee (address not declared) is reported to be over the moon

Don't like Key but you have to admit he's got the nose for when things go up or down. That's peak housing bubble, buckle up.

up
11

Agreed. Perhaps his way of shorting housing in NZ and banking that tax free gain. Those loaded to the eyeballs in debt take note.

up
20

So if I've got this right - while PM, JK keeps the floodgates open on immigration, encourages foreign ownership of NZ land, creates an environment of greedy frenzy among property speculators and Darklords, watches the growth of one mother of all housing bubbles, then quits politics and sells his home before anyone can change the market conditions...?

On one hand I think, well played Sir.

On the other hand, I think, gosh you are a slimey little so and so.

Easy to have a nose for those things, when you are the one pulling the levers and turning the knobs to make them happen.

So is it okay to talk about Chinese money and foreign nationals buying up NZ houses again?

From Facebook

In the words of 43% of the voters:

I don’t want a tax reduction. I’m going to vote Labour.

I don’t want any more new roads. I’m going to vote Labour.

I want CGT, property taxes, inheritance taxes and asset taxes, and I don’t care how much they cost me. I’m going to vote Labour.

I want the Defence Force’s re-equipment program to be cancelled so we become an international pariah. I’m going to vote Labour.

I want renters thrown out on the streets as landlords exit the business and invest their money offshore. I’m going to vote Labour.

I want the country to go back to cloth-cap unionists controlling our lives. I’m going to vote Labour.

I want NZ to abandon free trade and go back to protectionism. I’m going to vote Labour.

I want hordes of Syrian Muslim refugees living in my street. I’m going to vote Labour.

I want the NZ dollar to fall, increasing the price of virtually everything. I’m going to vote Labour.

I want the dairy industry destroyed because it doesn’t make any money for the country and all it does is pollute the rivers. I’m going to vote Labour.

I want the economy, so carefully built up over the last 9 years despite major hurdles, to be sent off the rails. I’m going to vote Labour.

I want the country to be run by a poster-girl with no experience and who’s really a closet communist. I’m going to vote Labour.

I want NZ to be a republic, with Hulun as President. I‘m going to vote Labour.

Folks, this is real. How could it get to this? We’re nothing but a nation of turkeys voting for an early Christmas.

up
18

From Ex Expat

"I don't want to actually read policy, I would much believe the misinformation."

Don't act righteous here.

How many of Lange and Prebbles actions did Labour voters actually vote for in 1984? The party has form. I had a Labour Party member girlfriend in 1987. She couldn't bring herself to vote for them and didn't want me voting National so we agreed to stay in bed on Election Day. Her spending ways meant we were financially uncompatible so it didn't last.

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17

So in your view because it happened in the 1980s, during a very different economic time, with very different people, it's bound to happen again.
Interesting.

Don't ever call the Labour supporters naive or blind followers when the above is your argument.

do you also remember why they did what they did, was it not Muldoon's protectionist ways that threw us in that hole.
i agree some of the things were daft and cost us ie selling telecom as a whole, how many years did it take to split that and fix it up
hindsight is a wonderful thing, if Muldoon had not scrapped the save for super scheme (similar to kiwisaver) and changed to a pay as you go model we would not be having any discussion about super today.
the one pass i give Muldoon is he created the oil industry in new Plymouth and the oil refinery and clyde dam which have made money for there owners for year on year

Pretty difficult to pass judgement on Labour of 1984 when they were handed a Muldoon hospital pass and NZ was flat broke

A case of try anything and everything in case it worked

Labour on 45% on this poll. At this rate they will be governing alone.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/08/46799/labour-gap-women

Revising history

If you were around in 1984 and don't have alzheimers you will know nobody voted "for labour" - everyone was too busy voting against national to get rid of that idiot who they'd had a gutsful of

up
16

Don't be hating on Labour voters. You wouldn't be in this position if Sir Chong Kee - master of sell outs hadn't executed his own breathtaking sell out...

up
11

IMHO sentiment shifted about 18 months ago but hadn't made it to the polls. JK was picking up on it and jumped ship 12 months ago.

Watching people stuck in traffic hating life, worried about the big mortgage and whether the housing market is going crash, the wife complaining about stressful her job is at reception at the hospital because they can't handle all the people. All these things come to a head and I think people are saying that's enough. This 'success' that National having been spinning just isn't that great. In fact, it might just be a hoax.

Correct - you got it

Has been reported here several times that our resident bellweather gurus Olly Newland and BigDaddy went negative in January 2016 - note he has been very quiet ever since then

It's interesting because I think there two shifts occurring simultaneously. Negative sentiment towards current government as well as housing market - makes you wonder if people weren't making such capital gains from housing whether support of current government would have lasted until now...

Capital gains disappear, Nationals support evaporates...coincidence?....lets hope so because surely we Kiwis aren't that shallow, are we?

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10

Ex expat ;It got to this because the Nats fell asleep at the wheel....if everyone was getting a slice of the pie,do you think the mood of the people would have changed?

up
11

The Nats have been so busy shifting all the goodies up to the top end of the table they cant understand why the ungrateful craven twerps down the bottom end of the table are revolting

up
16

Jeepers is someone paying you peddle this National Party propaganda crap?

You should get your National Party talking points condensed. The F.U.D. is TL; DR

up
25

It's entertaining listening to people sober up after 9 years of hard drinking on the National kool-aid.

It sounds as if they actually believe the world will end if Labour end up in power. If you're a white male, in your 50 or 60s that owns mutiple properties and have enjoyed significant wealth gains in the last 9 years, well sure, I can see why you might not like Labours policies. But let's face it, the country isn't just about you and your personal wealth. There are other people in this country who deserve a fair go.

up
14

couldn't have articulated it better myself IO!

^^this^^

Can't believe the number of upvotes for such a biased comment.

LOL

Yes ex Expat. This time Jacinda Government.

Set the net, go and do some work then come back to see what the haul is. Bountiful by the look of it.

I don't see anyone coming into this forum with any intention other than to espouse and confirm pre held views. As it stands the posting population here is mostly left wing so it's fun to poke the bear and read the replies.

I'm male, pale and stale as someone put it somewhere, the new silent voice. Thankfully I'm also agile enough to survive anything slippery cinders can dream up so my world won't change on 23/9 if Labour is elected in. It will just be more complex. One family home, no trusts and no mortgage will evolve into something else quite quickly. The lawyers and accountants will have a field day, just as they did in the 80s.

Male, pale and stale isn't the "new silent voice", it's been the dominant voice of the last two millennia and there is a desire now, to hear from other groups.
So it's not that your demographic is silenced, just that a great majority are bored to tears with it.

Silenced? Hah, they've never shut up.

Tut tut, attitudes such as these are fueling the rise of the far Right.

Where is the evidence to support that? Historically, the far right, and indeed most forms of extreme and populist movements, spring up in times of upheaval, rapid social change, economic strain etc. All those factors exist now.
My opinion would be that it is not the silencing of white men that is contributing to the rise in right wing movements, but more the threat to their power. White men still sit on most panels, are most represented in governments and business. They are ever present and very very vocal. It is a complete and utter distortion to suggest that they are somehow silenced, and the very idea that they are silenced, is a convenient excuse to create their own "social movement" as a ruse to maintain their power. Working class white people are losing more power, opportunity in a more pronounced way than they have for a long time. This is an obvious result of globalisation, where big companies simply move their production to where ever the cheaper labour force is, completely undermining any power base that the white working class once had. Before the GFC this was less pronounced and now it is much more so.
There are complex, multilayered social reasons for the growth in all the extreme groups currently and I don't accept that merely suggesting that many people are bored of the over representation of older, white, male opinion in society has led to far right groups.

Where is your evidence that the majority of people are "bored to tears" with the older White male influence in Western society? Trump was elected President of the US recently. I think you have a very jaundiced and appalling view of the bedrock of our society. I'm going to be opposed to everything you suggest on principle from now on just like how you discount my group.

Also I didn't say it led to far Right groups I said it was fueling it. Like throwing petrol on a small fire. I don't understand the animosity toward a very benign and patient group who have collectively reached out and given a helping hand up to all and sundry.

"I don't understand the animosity toward a very benign and patient group who have collectively reached out and given a helping hand up to all and sundry", suggests that older, white men are somehow on the topmost rung, godlike, and everyone else is spread out on lower ones
As you cannot see what is wrong with that, what is wrong with the stale, male, pale, keeping everyone but them off that higher rung, then you will continue and increasingly be looked at as stale, male, pale. It is not your turn any longer. It is time to step down and be among equals.

It's not the nineteenth century any more PocketAces. Yes, we were on the topmost rung and godlike it is true but women have been emancipated for quite some time now. You can't keep blaming things on others, sooner or later you're going to have to take a long hard look at yourselves.

Sorry, but just about everything you say confirms that you believe that white and male belongs on the top rung.

Everything you say makes me believe you have no intention of treating us as equals.

When you are accustomed to privilege, equality can look like discrimination

Absolutely. Margaret Thatcher was Britain's first female Prime minister 38 years ago and women have held the highest offices in NZ, starting with Shipley as PM, 20 years ago. Gattung was Telecom's CEO 18 years ago. Sheeran shows that even red heads can make it these days.

^^ Zachary^^ you oppose everything I have ever said, so business as usual then?
Trump is the most unpopular president in history with the worst approval ratings. Was Trump voted in because he was an older white male? Or was he voted in for other reasons? I seem to recall he was voted in because he promised to lock up Hilary Clinton, build a wall to keep out Mexicans, instigate a Muslim travel ban, make coal "clean", and make America great again.
And I didn't express animosity towards a "benign, patient group" who have done nothing but help those around them. I dispute your presentation of history. There have been great older white men, there have been terrible older white men, the point is, older white men have been over represented as a demographic and I support the reduction of the power structures that keep that unrepresentative demographic in place. If older white men inherited their power and influence based on merit in a society of equal opportunity, I would have no issue with that at all but that isn't the case.

Were you really there? More revisionist claptrap

Roger Douglas set out to get rid of the Tax Avoidance industry and all the Tax Accountants and Tax Lawyers by introducing a GST and reducing the Personal Tax rate down to $0.33 in the $ in the expectation it would no longer be worthwhile. Prior to 1984, under National and Muldoon every $ invested in avoidance paid a return of 30%

Queen Street Farmers were buying farms purely for the profit gained from Fertiliser and Butter subsidies and Standard Values - they went within the first week of gaining power

#EliteMonopolyCapital

Some very average quality National propaganda there

Ha! I literally got down to the 4th or 5th item before I realised these were supposed to be negatives. :-)

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16

Can someone tell how a buyer 'In China' can buy a $20 Mil property in Parnell, when you can only get $50,000US out of China in any one year?
Or has Chairmen Xi let this one go as a favour?

OMG that's a no brainer! When you add up all the people in Tiananmen Square at $50,000 each you get a lot more than that. No wonder house prices go bananas LOL!

but most of them have nothing

Yes, but their 1% is a lot bigger than ours.

So what are you saying? CHong Kee's house is now owned by a conglomerate of Communist party clones?

He's suggesting that someone is using dead people's identities to get money out of China.

There're more than 4 million millionaires in China, that's the population of whole New Zealand.

The money may well have been taken out of China before the restrictions were put in place.

I hope he's bought a truck load of disinfectant as well.....

I suppose it's one form for the payoff for services rendered to take.

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19

you have to give him the foresight to sell out before his party was voted out and the law was changed to forbid it.
and to throw the opposition parties a nice bone for the election as they can now go to town hall meetings and point to the ex pm selling off his own property to overseas buyers, whilst the poor local national MP has to stand there and defend it whilst getting shouted down

Think smiley wavey is smiley waving at BE and co?

"So perhaps the new normal for auctions is just the old normal returning.

But we are living in very interesting times.

One way or another our political landscape will have changed by the end of this month, although it could be weeks after that before the final shape of our next government is known."

Perfectly describes the late stages of a bubble.

https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/stages_in_a_bubble...

'return to normal' is "old normal returning"

'Fear' will happen after Labour wins and Jacinda is PM

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14

Yep, a Labour win will be great as it will further take the winds out of the property ponzi sail.
In the less likely event that National win, they will need Winston and that will also create uncertainty.

Not sure how our property market can return to crazy spending, where do they expect that people are going to get their cash from?? Here's some very interesting news from Better Dwelling.

Article: Mainland Chinese Real Estate Buyers Continue To Dry Up
https://betterdwelling.com/mainland-chinese-real-estate-buyers-continue-...

Quote: Chinese Buyers Are Disappearing Globally; Mainland Chinese buyers are exiting global real estate markets, as quickly as they became the largest buyers. Australia, one of the largest markets for Chinese overseas buyers is seeing them not just disappear, but these buyers are now failing to find financing to complete purchases.

This has led to a number attempting to sell pre-construction before the properties register. New Zealand, another hotspot for Mainland Chinese buyers, is now blaming China’s capital controls for a big decline in foreign buying. Toronto and Vancouver have had noticeable declines too.

I expect we will see military action on the Korean peninsula within the next 3-4 months, as the US's patience runs dry and the real threat of North Korea having the capability to hit the US mainland becomes real.
The US will not be able to tolerate that threat.

We'll see very strong surgical strikes on North Korea military sites and a heavy bombardment of Pyongyang.
Seoul will get bombarded in return. There will be unfortunate loss of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of lives.

But Kim will be overthrown, we will have regime change whereby North Korea remains communist but much more reined in. The USA will not be able to occupy as that will be intolerable to China / Russia.

That's going to cause some mayhem and real instability in North Asia, and I suspect will crash NZ's property market once and for all.

Last time there was a war in Korea NZ did really well out of it. I'm not sure why this would crash NZ property prices. I think it could possibly make them even more expensive.
I don't think there will be any significant military action. It's not worth the risk of a vaporized Seoul or Tokyo.

Really?
America's interests always come above those of local peace.
You really think America is going to tolerate the possibility that North Korea could destroy several large West Coast cities with nukes?
Seoul and Tokyo wouldn't necessarily be vapourised (although there would clearly be plenty of death and destruction) if the American bombardment of North Korea was swift and powerful.
And there's nothing like a war to boost a President's popularity.

In terms of your comment on the Korean war. The times are totally different. China is now an economic powerhouse, and the world economy is much more interconnected. A war on the peninsula today would take down plenty of markets.

Basic geo-politic-economic realities.

If there's a war, the property price here will jump up as NZ is one of the peaceful countries in the world. Did you read yesterday's Herald? NZ is ranked the second peaceful country in the world this year.

Ooh look, up there in the sky, it's an alien spaceship, oh hooray, they are here to see to it that property prices start going up again, preferably by ridiculous numbers.

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17

You know the market has peaked when JK more or less sells out of it....

It will be really interesting to see if the property just sits there as an empty home.

squatters?

How about an occasional holiday home? Although it seems an odd place for a holiday home, Hawaii would be better.

Imagine what key is selling from his trust. We'll never know. What a guy. Bailed national because he could see housing being a big issue for his party. Now he sees his party getting the boot and labour having to clean up the mess so he's bailing with his investments as well. All the time he makes mountain loads of money. A true investor banker. He's so up there with the big wigs of China he'd have no trouble selling that property and putting the money somewhere. WE HAVENT HEARD THE LAST OF KEY WHEN LABOUR GETS IN. His trust investments are big and he knows all the tricks

If it sits empty, then there's the risk of squatters in poor areas like Parnell....... Hi guys, let's move into JK's old digs over summer & enjoy the pool.

I think people would rather set fire to it and tag whatever remains. Each to their own though.

This has been what's happening to a lot of really expensive properties and areas in London and Vancouver:-

Vancouver

huffington post article: Here Are The Canadian Cities With The Most Empty Homes
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/02/11/empty-homes-canada-vancouver-tor...

Beautiful Empty Homes of Vancouver
http://beautifulemptyhomes.tumblr.com/

London

The Guardian: Inside 'Billionaires Row': London's rotting, derelict mansions worth £350m
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jan/31/inside-london-billionair...

It would be helpful to see YoY data for the auction sale numbers to help discern between seasonal values and changing mindsets. One could easily ascribe the minor uptick in August to the improving weather, getting closer to the annual sales season, instead of claiming a single small delta in MoM data to point to a bottoming of the downtrend. A single months delta is just as likely to be wrong on the downside as it has been repeatedly on the upside!

As to the numerous folk above discussing the John Keys sale to a foreigner... data, or any possible proof about this? What I see above is that one person made a humorous aside, and a bunch of others took it to be valid data instead of humor. Sad to see the level of discourse on this site reduced to this level.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2017/09/john-key-sells-home-to-offsh...

All the articles say this was a private sale to an overseas buyer in China.

Which is interesting considering the capital limit of 50k currently in place. The buyer would have been needing to hold their cash offshore before that came into affect. Making this look even dodgier.

Either CCCP sanctioned money or laundered money - take your pick

Non-Tax-Resident purchasers should supply a tax-clearance from their home jurisdiction

Newshub is reporting the sale to be to someone in China.

At last , some wise words from Greg Ninness "How that affects the traditional spring surge of the property market, we will have to wait and see." ... much better than his prevailing negative tone !!

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John Key played NZ beautifully and won - he got his knighthood, sold the family home to an offshore Chinese, Max will be able to buy a freehold house, he handed Bill English a second loss. Wanted the flag changed but accepted an old school British based knighthood - what a fraud.

Legacy of the Key regime:

Left us with record levels of child poverty
Hundreds of people sleeping in cars
Mental health patients left out in the cold
Massive level of meth dealing and explosion of drug based crime
Ran down the health, education, police services and conservation department
Hundreds of thousands of migrants let in that we never needed
Foreign offshore buyers ramping up house prices
Let the farmers pollute our waterways
Half a trillion of debt in NZ
Assets sold when they should not have been
Let the Chinese backed water bottlers ship out billions of litres for free
Super fund contributions stopped
Increased GST when they said no more taxes
Removed depreciation on rental properties
Introduced the Bright Line Capital Gains Tax
Allowed our dairy farms to be sold out to the Chinese
Bailed out their mates who were heavily invested in South Canterbury Finance
Promoted the TPP

Is it any wonder the country has had a gutsful - Labour are now heading for a landslide win.

National have failed - they do not deserve any more time.

a $1,000 tax cut is just $2.75 per day - surely the citizens would not be swayed by that

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Well put.
I would add to your list:

'Promised to solve the housing crisis on first being elected yet made it much worse'.
'Totally screwed up the Christchurch rebuild'

The tax cut - agree. And will be wiped out within a year by cost of living increases. It's trivial, and pathetic.

and promised the families of pike river to their faces he would bring their dads and boys home no matter what or how much was needed to do it

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Did anyone else hear John Campbell on Radio NZ yesterday with his piece on how half of the children in Decile 1 schools in Auckland have no school lunches packed???
Terribly tragic.
This is not the New Zealand I grew up with, nor the one envisioned by our founders.
'Trickle down' my ass.

Kids never eat their packed lunches anyway. I know I didn't. Obesity is more of a concern than lack of packed lunches.

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And here we have the all too common logic of a moron, people.

Child poverty only occurs because kids don't like packed lunches.

The slight uptick in August auction sales could simply be smart money leaving as quickly as they can before the election and risk of CGT incoming.

The smart money already left more than 6 months ago.

The slightly lower IQ money then ;-)

Can imagine Key wanting to sell as soon as he left government, but realised that wouldn't sit well - would raise a red flag - so he's waited until a moment when it wouldn't get much air time during the election (and before market really starts to head south).

Has been reported here before that our resident bellweather guru Olly Newland and BigDaddy went negative in January 2016 - note he has been very quiet ever since then

Hiya. My wife and I were just at a couple of off the plan apartment show areas today in Onehunga. 790 thou plus for one to two bedroom, and construction finished mid 19. I am personally wary about buying anything I can't see and touch. Also neither place had any sort of master builders guarantee. They eacfh said that the council had stringent rules now around leaky buidings, and that was why they didn't give any sort of guarantee. That made me a bit uneasy. I guess the question is whether we wait, are apartments still dodgy, and whether buying off the plans is smart?

Care to name the developers?

My 2c would be to wait. No fear of missing out needed for apartments since most of cost is construction not land. Very dangerous to buy something you can't see and touch - so many risks. Toronto house prices are down about 20% in the last six months - no reason it can't happen here. If Labour becomes govt very likely they will follow through with kiwbuild. Small chance (but not zero) of interest rates increasing for various global reasons. Given you can't move in until mid-2019, why risk it? Let a baby boomer take the risk. Worst case if you don't buy: you'll have to buy another off the plan appt in 2019 and wait a further 2 years. Worst case if you go ahead: a shonky apt in 2019 worth a lot less than 790.

Well, maybe you like to wait a bit, until Jacinda and co. Along with some clever professors and savvy economists like BH, could wreck the market and you could buy the same for 100k less....
I saw very tidy spacious and new 3 bed, 2 bath freehold townhouse with sea view and 10 year guarantee in long bay for 1139 k..! ...if that helps

Bernard Hickey is neither a professor nor an economist. Never has been. He's a journalist. How could he conspire to collapse asset prices?

Oh, wait...he was referred tho as an independent economist by Jacinda lol
and the hub:
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/steven-joyce-and-the-trut...

Really. Perhaps you read in it in the politics section of conspiracytheory.com

Wow. Cindy identifies Bernard Hickey as an economist on national TV.

You should take this revelation to Q&A.

Fairly certain Bernard C Hickey has a degree in Economics from Massey University

Fairly certain Bernard C Hickey has a degree in Economics from Massey University

Many people have economics degrees from Massey. It doesn't mean that they're "economists". Just like graduates of history are not necessarily historians.

lol, who is he then to double check on Labour's budget and Ms Ardern names him as reference ?? ... what a circus
update: I'll tell who he is: he is the brilliant economist which was writing and strongly advocating in 2010 for people to hold off and not buy any properties because , wait for it don't laugh too loud !! PRICES will DROP a further 15% from there !! .. That is BH the brilliant economist ...

Talk about flogging a dead Joyce, give up already.

Your man revealed to NZ he was an idiot, move on.

If there are enough people silly enough to put Labour in then interest rates will increase which will not be great for business.
Unemployment rate will escalate as business will close down.
Rents willl RISE!!!
Be very careful what you wish for as a change of government will be a shocker as things are very stable in NZ at this time!

Unemployment rate will escalate as business will close down.
Rents willl RISE!!!

Will they now. How does increased unemployment drive rents higher? If rents rise, what happens to the wider consumer economy?

Tough questions, but feel free to extend yourself.

Unemployment will certainly rise with Labour in as they and the Greens have no policy at all for growth of business but just go on about injustices between the so called haves and have nots.
The Greens will be a shocker if they are in with Labour.
Arden has no substance to her statements!
Build these so-called affordable homes!
Where is the detail if these cheap homes were possible why aren't building companies doing it???
Rents will rise due to interest rates being higher and capital gains tax implementation.
Check out house prices and rents in Oz where capital gains tax is!
CGT is just an envy tax and Labour want to bring it in because they are just that!
We need successful people in parliament and not socialist dreamers.

Well put Man2, unfortunately the same BS is now spread all around the world and the LEFT are exploiting Poverty and Housing as a pretext and cause to get back into power

Labour knows that they cannot accomplish their promises no matter how many billions they borrow or tax ... Labour/ Green/ Maori government would be just what the doctor ordered to wreck the place during the next 3 years if people chose that !! ...
but they will be paraded naked after all the blinded, ill informed and senseless voters start feeling the pinch ( or spending a bit of the free taxpayers money) - no doubt about it !!

Reducing inequality will directly affect economic growth positively. GDP is spending. Lower classes have a far higher marginal propensity to consume. Most of the upper classes money is invested in rent-seeking.

http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/inequality-hurts-economic-growth.htm

Reducing inequality will directly affect economic growth positively. GDP is spending. Lower classes have a far higher marginal propensity to consume. Most of the upper classes money is invested in rent-seeking.

Well that's the OECD's POV. The emotion-driven ranting of middle NZ isn't likely to be focused on these issues.

Agree@The Man2 I don't know why people want to change. No government is perfect. A stable government is good for everyone.

People probably looked at National's performance over the last 9 years and decided they don't like it. Our blue party have overseen a decrease in home ownership levels to the lowest in 60 years, allowed house prices compared to income rise to the highest in the developed world and lied to the NZ people on issues such as GST, immigration and foreign buyers of property.

Remember the cries of "foul" and "social engineering" over shower heads and light bulbs? Well, right back at you, except the social engineering of turning NZers into a nation of renters is all but completely bedded in makes that pale into total insignificance.

But government's debt has been decreased, we have one of best economy in developed world, low unemployment rate etc. The property price was down already especially in AKL, so the affordablilty will get better.

Bullshit.

Unemployment will not raise with Labour. Their commitment to build residential housing will save the building industry from collapsing. Both preserving jobs and creating new ones.

Their commitments to apprenticeship training will get more young people into jobs, vs Nationals, import all the labor you need policy, which reduces youth employment levels, reduces the opportunities for current employees to move up the ladder and drag another local into their industry.

I really wonder who are you guys going to blame next year when things start getting worse.and promises are diluted with BS..?
you all know that throwing billions in health and education only have long term effects and water cleaning and rails etc are also very long term projects...so I am looking forward to see your comments next year...I dare you not to change your logins!
So between now and the election get all that you have on nat...cause after that you have no show!!

That's cool, Nats are still blaming everything on the last Labour govt, we have heeeeaps up our sleeves.

Cool as, enjoy your extra taxes and higher prices while you do that ....!

In order to put things to rights in the public sector ie education, health, mental health, police etc etc etc, we very likely will be looking at higher taxation, especially as they have been run down as badly as they have. If we want these things we need to pay for these things.
On higher prices, especially for farmed produce subject to water and carbon taxes, yes, we should pay toward that, as in a way, farmers are doing our work for us, in a small way we are all farmers and our consumption of milk, meat etc helps to contribute to the mess National have allowed. It will be difficult to extract that cost from people we export to, because lets face it the poor old farmer is a price taker, not a price maker.
Hopefully it will be all set off with lower housing costs, so I suppose you might be able to say, in a roundabout way, landlords will contribute a goodly amount to these causes, yee ha.

Enjoy your dreams .. and as you said "Hopefully it will be all set off with lower housing costs" ... !!

"landlords will contribute a goodly amount to these causes" ...lol really ? ...:)

Have a nice day

Isn't it hilarious when these dense geriatric boomers who had the world handed to them on a plate scream blue murder over some trivial amount of potential tax cuts being denied.

Meanwhile they are totally indifferent to the effect that house price inflation of 500k in five years has had the younger generation.

We've been "enjoying" vastly higher prices for year after year on the things that really matter. If you looked past the end of your own nose you might gain some perspective.

Last week Mark Sainsbury took his morning radio show on the road, and one morning saw him in the Upper Hutt Cosmopolitan Club. During the course of the morning he pulled the odd customer aside and asked them a few questions. Toward the end of the show he talked to an older couple about who they might vote for. "Oh we are voting National", they answered, "if the other lot get in, we will lose our extra $13 a week Bill will give us". They talked on for a bit, then the said they were off home to cook lunch. "What's for lunch", asked Sainsbury. "Lamb", she replied.
And that about encapsulated the generation gap right there and then. Even without the extra they were home for lamb for lunch, while for so many now, it is an unattainable luxury.
BTW I am a boomer, we are not all like that.

I really wonder who are you guys going to blame next year when things start getting worse.and promises are diluted with BS..?
you all know that throwing billions in health and education only have long term effects and water cleaning and rails etc are also very long term projects...so I am looking forward to see your comments next year...I dare you not to change your logins!
So between now and the election get all that you have on nat...cause after that you have no show!!

Stephen Joyce could do with your gusto as a volunteer on his campaign team.

Dont need to - there are enough clever dudes out there to sink the country's economy ... on looks and no substance - no matter what National does, still heaps of change seekers are following the flame that will burn them first ... because just like most teenagers who refuse to listen to wisdom only blame themselves when they get their Arce burned !! so enjoy the BBQ!!

So you're predicting a change of govt?

Cool as, enjoy your extra taxes and higher prices while you do that ....!

Higher prices for what? A can of Coke? Is NZD going to collapse? Why?

there is no point in explaining a road map to a blind person , is there? :)

there is no point in explaining a road map to a blind person , is there? :)

Particularly if those blind people use technology solutions that make sense.They wouldn't need to listen to you at all. It would probably be a complete waste of their time.

NZD will lose value when the rest of the world starts tightening. Then NZD won't be used as a carry trade currency then.
NZ's economy is mature. It's towards the end of a cycle. Whoever gets voted to lead will probably have to face less growth and a less favourable overall economic climate.

Government spending is a perfectly legitimate response to such conditions, especially for a country that has spent the last decade vastly under-spending on infrastructure and public services in relation to its population growth rate. Fiscal stimulus hasb't been proven to stimulate growth over this past decade. All these cheap comparisons to what Labour did 20 years ago or National did 30 years ago..... it is facile and lazy. The world economy is unrecognisable now. Globalisation has changed the picture completely.

Personally, I don't mind having to pay some extra tax if it means that the wealth equality gap starts shrinking again. I'm not so ignorant of history as to think a few extra bucks in my pocket is worth the rise in social problems that are already brewing. Such social problems can lead to serious social instability.

NZD will lose value when the rest of the world starts tightening. Then NZD won't be used as a carry trade currency then.
NZ's economy is mature. It's towards the end of a cycle. Whoever gets voted to lead will probably have to face less growth and a less favourable overall economic climate.

Oh I see. So the gap between NZ and JPY is going to narrow. The Japanese are going to lift interest rates. Interesting theory.

No JC, but the spread between NZ and US cash rates is now at an all time historic low of 50bps, and if they hike again in Dec as is partly priced in, it will only be 25bps. NZ won't be the carry trade as the US is now that for the likes of the Japanese investor - why invest in a little illiquid lower credit quality country like NZ when you can go to the US for only 25bps less.?

Developers are Lamont and Co, and Bruce and Ann Clegg

I would stay away from a developer who gave you such an appalling answer

the units in Hobsonville are much better built and nicer town ...if that helps

True, transport connection is slowly being developed and they are quite overpriced. Perhaps building your own house on a opened up section so you can avoid the additional body corp management overhead and can set your own design? There were a raft of nice sections closer into the city by 10min which with a nice home would be under the price of both areas. Keeping an eye for other section blocks is not too arduous. (But then I have a aversion to apartments and the NZ building record with many projects where others would prefer apartments).

If JK house has really being sold to a Chinese their is a possibility that it is a return favour or..........
.

John Key was our best Prime Minister EVER !

96% Employment
Fastest growing economy in the OECD during the GFC
Lowest interest rates since WWII
Strongest export growth ever
Constant positive GDP Growth
Kiwi $ strongest against US$ since Vietnam war
Reversal of Kiwis leaving to work in Aussie
Handed the country to English with a budget surplus
Increased the minimum wage the most and to the highest level ever exceeding the inflation rate
NZ Stock exchange at its highest index level ever
Oversaw the rebuilding of Chch.

What more could we possibly ask for from a PM ?

Boatman I commend you for being able to focus on one part of the situation. National did some great things over the last 9 years. Absolutely, no argument here. But of course you're not telling us about the whole situation are you? Can you add some poverty, pollution, congestion and suicide stats to all of your comments like this please so that we can see the whole picture, not just the little bit that you see with the rose tints on?

Well I can vouch for the fact that my commute in auckland has fallen from 2 hours a day, to 1 since the introduction of water view. Hard to argue with that.

I can also vouch that my Australian mates can't believe we could be voting out a successful government, for an inexperienced lightweight with no financial experience. They think kiwis are nuts.

96% employment?
- How many times did they change the definition of 'unemployment'?
Fastest growing economy in the OECD during the GFC
- That's just plain wrong, as this was Australia
Lowest interest rates since WWII
- He had no control over this
Constant positive GDP Growth
- True. He also flatlined normalised GDP though
Kiwi $ strongest against US$ since Vietnam war
- Again don't really know how he achieved this one, himself.
Reversal of Kiwis leaving to work in Aussie
- This was more to do with the downturn in the commodities markets and treatment of NZ citizens, not JK.
Handed the country to English with a budget surplus
- True. But, the country was handed to him with one too.
Increased the minimum wage the most and to the highest level ever exceeding the inflation rate
- If the economy was so great, why would this even be neccessary? If productivity was truly growing, this wouldn't be required.
NZ Stock exchange at its highest index level ever
- Like any stock market index in the developed world, right now...
Oversaw the rebuilding of Chch.
- True. "Oversaw" it. After 5 years, it is still far from done though. Great Progress.

Also add:

- Campaigned on the housing crisis, then denied for the next 9 years the existence of the housing crisis
- Pushed house prices to their highest levels ever, out of the reach of young Kiwis '
- Dragged his feet for as long as possible on Anti Money Laundering legislation
- In line with the above, allowed NZ to be a target for the laundering of money
- Led NZ through a precipitous drop in home ownership rates
- Promised not to increase GST, saying "If we do a half decent job economically we won't need to" then increased GST
- Promised not to increase / add taxes then did so 18 times in 3 terms
- Kicked the really difficult cans down the road for future Kiwis to deal with, despite accumulating political capital he could have spent to address them
- Called Working for Families "communism by stealth" when in opposition, then only served to increase it once in power
- Increased subsidies to property investors via the Accommodation Supplement, because of the failure to acknowledge and deal with the housing crisis
- Made parliament and politics grubby to a new level through his dealings with Cam Slater, Carrick Graham, Judith Collins et al.

Even those who voted for Key - myself included, twice - have in many cases noted he was great at getting and holding power but he avoided some of the hard actions that needed to be taken, not wanting to spend the political capital he accumulated.

As a result I think of Key as someone who had great ambition - to be Prime Minister. And at that, he excelled. He didn't seem to do as well at achieving results for the country, however. I had great hopes for Key, but they ultimately never seemed to materialise.

As even a number of folk on the right I know have summarised things, "He came, he saw, he dithered, he left."

And in this time nz income has grown from $70b, to over a $100b. Our external debt is peanuts. This growth enables the country to invest in infrastructure. Basically do things.

Labour being such a “progressive" party will stymie growth, and through tax policy beat the productive sector into submission.

What’s really concerning is that they propose keeping debt higher for longer.

"nz income has grown from $70b, to over a $100b."

What income, specifically?

@Boatman, I think that's a great achievement.

your list is ALL down to growth in debt ...
Which was always Chong Kee's specialty - selling out the future.

Congrats Boatman for having the courage to post your opinion despite knowing full well you will be given lots of grief by other commentators. No doubt they would have done things so much better than John Key

Indeed, but let's also recognise everyone else. Congrats everyone on having the courage to post any opinion knowing that there will be people out there who disagree with you. I propose all of us receive a participation medal!

@boatman
96% Employment LOL.. it's a bit like saying 2% of population earns above 100K, 98% earns nothing!

Interesting article, thanks Greg