There is a widening gap between the price buyers are prepared to pay and the price vendors are expecting to achieve

Picture: Jonathan McIntosh www.flickr.com/photos/jonathanmcintosh/

There were disappointing results at this week’s main Auckland apartment and commercial property auctions, with a reasonable selection of properties on offer but very few sales.

At Barfoot & Thompson’s main apartment auction for the week a mix of four commercial properties and three apartments were offered but only one of each was sold.

The commercial properties included a retail premises operating as a Thai café in Onehunga, another retail premises with a flat above it in Parnell, a large bakery/retail premises in Silverdale and a hotel/conference centre in Kaitaia, which had a resource consent to convert it into an aged care facility.

There were multiple bidders for the Onehunga property, just a single bidder for the one at Silverdale and no bids for either of the Parnell or Kaitaia properties.

The Onehunga retail premises was the only one to sell under the hammer and the others were all passed in for sale by negotiation.

The selling price of the Onehunga property and for other commercial properties that have sold recently are available on our Commercial Property Sales page.

The commercial properties were followed by three apartments in the CBD, with one in the Kiwi on Queen building near the top of Queen St, one in Tetra House near the university on Wakefield Street, and the third in the City Oaks building on Hobson Street.

There were multiple bidders for the Kiwi on Queen unit and it sold under the hammer, but there was just a single bidder for the City Oaks unit and no bids on the Tetra property. Both were passed in.

Up at Ray White City Apartments six apartments were on offer.

These included a large three bedroom unit in a block with weathertightness issues near St Lukes mall, another in the Spencer on Byron at Takapuna which is another building with remediation issues, two units in the newly completed Sugartree Centro complex on Nelson Street, a large apartment in a low rise complex near the city end of Mt Eden Rd, and a unit in the Quadrant building near the High Court.

There have been a number of units in the Sugartree Centro complex coming up for auction recently.

Like many new developments it was sold off the plans and a reasonable number of the units were bought as speculative investments, often by buyers in Asia.

Now that the complex is completed they are selling. But in the current market they are often disappointed by the prices they can achieve. And although there were multiple bidders for both of the Sugartree units at this latest auction, both were passed in.

There were also multiple bidders on three of the four remaining properties and a single bidder on the fourth, but only one was sold, the unit in the Spencer on Byron Building at Takapuna.

Details of all the apartments offered and the prices achieved on those that sold are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

These latest auctions show that there are plenty of buyers around prepared to part with their cash for the right property but they also have plenty of choice.

And there is a widening gap between the price buyers are prepared to pay and the price vendors are hoping to get.

With more properties coming on to the market as we head into summer, the sales pendulum is likely to swing even more in buyers’ favour.

The risk that vendors take if they hold out for a price that's above the market is not just that they will not get the better price they are hoping for, but that they may not get another offer that’s a high as the one they have just turned down.

The market has turned and vendors need to be realistic about price if they are serious about selling.

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99 Comments

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12

Wow. No ambiguity with this comment: "The market has turned and vendors need to be realistic about price if they are serious about selling.". This can only mean an expectation for further falling prices.

The good news is, the Chinese are coming!
This from your favourite newspaper - http://nzh.tw/11944720

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Today's B&T sales, 1 sold out of 19

wow, there will be a few nervous sellers out there

... and on Wednesday this week, B&T sales were 4 out of 23 (17% success).

It seems commercial property is no longer the investors darling. Weakness is spreading.....

Businesses can't justify their cost and top that up with up coming rigourous hiring requirements, it is so unattractive to run a business in NZ other than for strategic reasons.

3 out of 13 in chch Harcourts auction yesterday.

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Trade me listings for Auckland just hit 12000, something has got to give......

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Number of "Reduced" is 187

That's about fifty since I checked over breakfast this morning.

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" if they hold out for a price.... they may not get another offer that’s as high as the one they have just turned down."
Happened to a place I know of. Offered $900k pre-auction** (3 weeks ago) and went to auction. Passed in, as the potential buyer went elsewhere. Now, on the market for...."Asking $815,000" and hoping for a sale this year
(**PS: It was a Family Trust owned property and one of the Trustees, Singapore based, held out for the auction process. TradeMe Listing #: 1411305468 ).

Old real estate saw "Your first offer is very often your best offer".

Any time there is illiquidity and leverage, there is a recipe for disaster- when prices move south, equity is rapidly wiped out precipitating panic selling into a freefall market with no bids to hit. - quote from https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/australias-economy-house-cards-matt-barrie/

The new status quo

Looks like prices declining. I hope everyone who was hoping for capital gains was smart enough to get out of the market already. I'm curious to see who will be left holding the bag.

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not even TTP, guess he's out selling his properties, as hes been quiet for too long

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Dear Houses Overpriced,

You said;

" not even TTP, guess he's out selling his properties, as hes been quiet for too long reply"

No you are wrong and misinformed. I don't even own a house and am unfathomably obsessed with property for some other mysterious reason, which I will never disclose. I have no invested interest in property, despite my relentless commenting to the contrary.

Houses will never lower in price. NEVER EVER EVER. In fact, they will clearly ever only go up in value without pausing or correcting ever...because I have deemed it so, and that is based on actual science and maths, of which I know a lot about, and have evidenced on this very site for 20 years. I know everything anyway, so I shouldn't have to ever actually explain anything.

Your sincerely,

Pointless

Aha!! Another TTP sock-puppet identified.

Trouble in Property Paradise

Having fun ?

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11

$h1%t YEAH!

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I was just being helpful and filling in.

So from this gingerninja = TTP ?

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NOOOOOOO!!! I'm not TPP, It was just a little parody for giggles.

I thought it was good, but you forgot to mention demographics.

Dear FatFreddy

You said "I thought it was good, but you forgot to mention demographics".

I didn't mention demographics or STRUCTURAL factors because they are far too complicated for you to understand, my friend, as I have proven for 20 years.

As much as I would love to be a doom mongering, communist and buy a house within standard affordability crieria, I won't be fooled by this Utopian fantasy, I am sorry to disappoint! Because, as previously mentioned, I am extraordinarily wise, knowledgeable in all markets and 100% objective. I have no bias at all. No vested interest in the property market! I merely spend hours and hours in these comments to share my glorious wisdom with you all.

Kind regards,

Pointless

PS and something about oscillation

My goodness.... you do it so well that it makes me wonder if you are the same person but with a polar opposite personality disorder.

You just needed to condescendingly recommend reading up on something and focus on an inane point from the previous post to distract from the fact that you can't or won't actually reply to the question and this would be perfect.

Gingerninja is so tanked-up and inebriated that she can't even get my name correct - despite her being fixated on me. (See her post above.)

Gingerninja - my name is "TTP" and not "TPP". Sober up, my friend.

Who would ever trust Gingerninja's judgement?

Certainly, I'd disown her.

TTP

I think that is the whole point - she is mocking you....

TTP/TPP.. does anyone even have a point anymore?

Wait? Are you trying to drive me into the arms of Albert Camus?

Ahh... Really TTP is that the best you can do at a put down. You're so pathetic, you're hilarious. :P

Sorry ttp, you are ttp not TTP
Now if you are a company....
You seem to have no capital structure, nil issued stock and hence no value apart from what you can induce suckers to believe.

TTP...."taking the piss". Sounds like he is a race horse; Taken a lot of us for a ride!

I'm TPP and so is my wife.

Now ginger surely you are not as daft as to use a very obvious straw man argument. TTP has never stated a constant increase, rather that trends have local minimums, local maximums and can take a longer time to measure overall trends than a couple of days and a few opinion pieces from rags that take money to publish articles trying to sell vapid products. It seems you have fallen into the trap of losing your head. I seem to recall TTP statements that mention not relying on capital gains for investment. So you probably will not see them anxiously scanning every article and jumping on every rumour like a meth addict who has gone off the meds... As for everyone else who is jumping in for trolling I can only say I have never had much sympathy for trolls who appear more foolish by poorly participating in abuse. Not only does it demonstrate how susceptible you are for straw men but also how easy you are to manipulate.

To your argument, what little of one you make out about the sky falling, the market value, (note not CV), grew so much in the past 3 years we have a very very long way to drop before anyone considers themselves worse off buying before then. They could even still break out the champers, (and if they did buy then they would have still had LVRs). The further back the higher the gains. If you have any capability to do any risk analysis, and I know that would be a stretch even to analyse toasting bread, you would see that likelihood points to property still being a good long term investment for owner occupiers and investors who have more capital. You probably would argue that what use is a property you have brought but paid more on a mortgage than the value at purchase and I would simply answer that most mortgages normally equate to paying more that the value. Even if the value was static a buyer would still be paying more on the mortgage. Only a fool would jump in without enough equity and capital to weather a downturn or a interest rates rise, or even to buy a property in a more risky area known for mass asset drops, (hence the millennials who are bitter about affordability but not preparing to overextend themselves into houses not worth the risk). However if you were wanting investment that did not tie to a mortgage or hard asset there are numerous other ones even listed on this site. Less risk normally has less of a gain, you choose your level of involvement and go.
Btw have you heard about this brand new investment I offer, you just have to download my browser plugin and you will be paid for web searches, yes that's right, paid in this really awesome cryptocurrency you could probably guess which one it is from this list (check out all those awesome gains you can look forward to): https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/

Now if you excuse me I am going to look at which current cologne notes are the most similar to Pi
because even smelling good is worth more of my time than being shit to TTP just because you feel less stable than them.

Pacifica, I wasn't making any argument. I was making a joke. The aim was to be amusing, satirical, parodical.

I've given up making sensible or reasoned responses to TTP. It is an exercise in futility and I find humour helps ameliorate frustration, don't you?

You're familiar with the Einstein aphorism "insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results"? Well, all I have experienced from TTP is unanswered questions, dogma, condescension, logical fallacy and mind numbing repetition ad nauseum.

I wasn't just wandering about the internet intent on trolling anyone, TTP has been trolling these comments for 9 months. He is relentless. Levity seems a rather reasonable response to me.

Just because a tiny slice of recent history has tended to show that there has been some long term capital gain from housing, there is absolutely ZERO guarantee that such will continue into the future. Thus purchasing property at currently exorbitantly high prices may be a very very costly mistake.

Didge, well said and as the saying goes ïf we don't learn from costly past mistakes we are bound into pattern of repeating them"

TTP,DGZ, Zachary Smith, Yvil, are all the same person. Just a real estate agent trying to manipulate this forum.

.....there is certainly a pattern! Obviously a wannabe successful agent, too much time on his hands!

Aussie owned banks are beating the minimum capital requirements hard after they got a slap from the Aussie reserve bank. Could we be seeing the debt ponzi offset brigade feeling the hot breath of refinancing equity requirements, overseas ban (on top of capital controls), and incoming tax offset changes (significantly reduced cashflow). Camp 2 - yes, yes and...yes.

You can hear the buzzer, pull up....pull up...hazard warning ....pull up. Hard to do so then the rocket boosters of domestic and foreign speculation are gone, and you suddenly realise your hauling a bloated cargo of debt that has ceased to defy the laws of gravity and investment mathematics.

2012, it was, when this last lot of property madness was allowed to escape the pen. So here we are, 5 years on , and we know what that means, don't we....a whole heap of Interest Only Mortgages are due about now. So your comment is quite apt....

Good point

Unfortunately National have done nothing to avoid this scenario and if it plays out as a lot of us suspect it is going to be quite grim for a lot of people.

Dont get me wrong it needs to happen but I cant help but feel sorry for some of the victims who have been talked into it by Politicians, media & RE agents

And guess who will try to blame the coalition?

eh? That was visible more than eight years ago. In fact there has hardly been a time in recent history where the debts actually get paid out of the bankers coffers. They just need to shop around for governments willing and capable to pay out for their bad mistakes. Of that there are quite a few. Even with NZs wet celery of regulations the country is still open for more back door trade. We could not even hold obvious follies of corrupt and poor management like SCF fully accountable. It just all went to poop and the govt stepped and agreed to shovel it up on behalf of all taxpayers. Even as an investor paying tax in NZ that would have been distasteful, (good for future assurance but still smelling like poop).

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Nationasl next election pledge will be to fix the housing crisis...

Followed by another term of denying a housing crisis exists.

Unless national party put jk's head on a pike the mob will not believe nation is for real to fix the housing crisis.

Wow these are abysmal numbers

There are 2 tier markets happening in many parts of Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne due to an oversupply of apartments, with apartments dropping or lackluster and detached houses stable or rising. Just remember that houses and units are not the same thing and beware the echo chamber. Not saying there is not a correction happening or going to happen more generally, but it pays to remember that markets are complex and stratified.

Markets are complex and stratified huh ?
Well this has been an across the stratosphere price escalation and it will be an stratospheric broad based correction

China to the rescue! Under National, NZ was for sale. Why all of a sudden would a herd of Chinese buy into a falling market with suggested even poorer prospects after the ban takes effect! 10/10 for searching far and wide for even bigger fools: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/98984001/chinese-property-website-pushi...

The gravy train halted 9 months ago and we're only beginning to see its effect. Congrats to those who off-loaded before it became obvious. Now we're trajecting towards the fundamentals and it's going to be a very very long haul before the next speculative cycle.

CWBW exactly right
It’s not like we did not inform the spruikers to sell and take profits
All they do is whine on about their suburbs are different but they fail to realize a broad based escalation in property prices will eventually result in an equally broad based decline
Dithering over postal codes is frankly laughable and desperate
You’d think they had a really great code like 10025 or 90210

Despite your warnings, many of these property investors have had one single belief for their confident buying behaviour (which has been permeated by many property investor tutors). "House prices double every seven to ten years". How did this belief arise? - this has been the result of property prices in New Zealand for the last 50 years - so they have continued to extrapolate past historical price moves (backed by 50 years of price history) into the future.

Depends where you were offloading. Certainly I hope your investment strategy is more diversified and not hanging on small time, recently bought, risky property in a single city (and even single country). What would happen in a natural disaster, or a regulation change, or if the properties just end up as so much rubbish on so little land? JK waited too long but if he left earlier he might have missed his knighthood and golden handshake. He never was tied to NZ, (although it was his country of milk and honey). Should be easy to get started on a demolition business, (buy a home and land, sell the home, then sell the land for new development). You don't even have to change the realtor's pick up line "nice home, shame if something were to happen to devalue it".

If prices fall sufficiently in my preferred suburbs/locations then, yippee, I'll be in with a grin! (-:

But so far, I have no evidence of that - and certainly not for stand-alone houses in prime locations. )-;

The likelihood is that prices across the country will oscillate around their current levels for the foreseeable future.

As always, some areas will fare better than others. And some weeks/months will produce stronger results than others.

Certainly agree with atadesk above: the house market is distinct from the apartment market. I know which one I'd prefer to have my money invested in.

Finally, I like atadesk's comment that (property) markets are "complex and stratified". It's a point that's lost on many contributors here.

TTP

I think you like his comment for “blind faith”.

Tut tut tt2
Apartments are property but hardly the same as a house sited on land
Cmon you can spin better than this
It surprises us all why someone so self important as you TTP are living in Palmy!
Why not Fielding !

Hi NorthernLights,

You are wrong.

I live neither in Palmerston North nor Fielding.

Nonetheless, both offer incredibly low-priced family homes compared with Wellington or Auckland.

May I suggest that you move to Shannon. I think you'd find it a stimulating environment.

TTP

I made a comment about it being the whole market that matters then the spruikers said only the exclusive suburbs mattered (or mattered to them) - seems convenient that that you now seem to rely on that as an excuse for the current situation that is appearing. You seem to be lost that there are multiple markets for houses but there is also a market for mortgages, labour and even avocados and each are interrelated to a greater or lesser extent.

Oscillate = to move or swing back and forth in a regular rhythm. TTP, do you mean drop 60%, go up 5% then drop another 2% (like a dead cat) and so on year in year out? I repeat, to "oscillate" around current levels there needs to be buyers. On the whole there are no buyers, at least not at current lofty prices. Prices must drop. A simple search on Realestate.co.nz and the number of page views is dismal and that's also on stand alone houses. Prices have way further to fall to come into line with historic fundamentals (Camp 2) and there will be tears.

Hi Retired-Poppy,

You write, "Prices must drop." That's plainly incorrect.

In fact, there are no such rules in property markets. (Not even your much-esteemed self can dictate price to a market.)

Time to head back to your retirement, my friend.

TTP

TTP, the same applies to shares. Property prices are falling NOW. They must drop sufficiently in order to attract confident buyers. It's a no brainer and I'm sure even you can see this is capitalism at its finest. TTP, can I suggest you read the article above more carefully "there is a widening gap between the price buyers are prepared to pay and the price vendors are hoping to get". This can only mean buyers expect price reductions (big ones).

Well actually property prices have been rising since July but sure, the trend is down.

Hi Retired-Poppy,

You write, "This can only mean buyers expect price reductions (big ones)."

With all due respect, given the volatility of markets, what buyers expect and what actually transpires is often two very different things.

May I suggest that you enrol for an introductory course in microeconomics.

TTP

Waffle.......

Hi Retired-Poppy,

That's about the extent of your mentality.

TTP

More TTP waffle! Waiting for TTP abuse phase followed by more nonsense....

Hi tothepoint,

You write, "given the volatility of markets, what buyers expect and what actually transpires is [sic] often two very different things."

Now that I've taken this out of it's original context as I like to do, may I suggest that the volatility of markets could result in the current bull market turning to a bear market. On the turn of this change, what sellers expect and what actually transpires are two very different things.

May I suggest that you stop behaving like a politician, and contribute in a critical and creative manner.

Then again, you're probably the most entertaining troll on this site.

PC

A lot more of happy doomers and gloomers appear to be coming out . They seem to be loving the price drops>>assuming they will now actually get off and actually do something like actually get in the market they seem to know a lot about..

I'll let you know! Personally, I won't be buying until inventory, time-on-market, "reduced" listings etc start declining again (and auction clearances improving and other signs of a market heating up). The market only recently looked to have turned in the buyers favour, and as this article points out, sellers and buyers still have very different expectations, so it would seem premature to jump in now. I will wait and watch to see if the market moves down further. I'm not sure if we've seen a dead cat bounce yet either. Although, there may not be one.

;_;

a thought I keep on having is if Auckland house price do revert to affordable level say 5x median income. Will there still be local buyers with money to get a mortgage? As some suggest here that a big drop in price will most likely be triggered by a bank run or bank run after price drop. In any case I do think that a lot of kiwis fhb only have all their money sitting in bank not knowing it's going to be wiped.

Well it looks as though mortgage rates will remain fairly low by NZ standard for now, since it's mainly only local Kiwi buyers who will be in a good position to purchase.

Next year we're likely to see further evidence of the Auckland property market crashing. I estimate a least a 20% drop for Auckland by the end of next year. The inner city areas could fall a lot further since the top end buyers are long gone.

Hi CJ099,

Contrary to what you write above, the inner city suburbs of Auckland are showing steady price increases - especially stand-alone houses, of which there's a continuing shortage.

TTP
P.S. Concerning your estimate of a 20% price decrease by the end of next year, why don't you stick your neck out a bit further and predict a 200% price decrease? Why restrict your BS to a mere 20% drop?

But it is the WHOLE market that matters.....

TTP, just to alter one of your very own comments (as above) and of course with all due respect. Given the volatility of markets, what TTP expects and what actually transpires is often two very different things. Now it makes sense.

Your quote TTP: "P.S. Concerning your estimate of a 20% price decrease by the end of next year, why don't you stick your neck out a bit further and predict a 200% price decrease? Why restrict your BS to a mere 20% drop?"

Because estimate is based on logic and I note my pass experiences in the GFC. You however are just talking through your arse as usual and we ALL know it! :P

Alas, CJ099 is on the turps again.......

TTP

Really TTP I know that's your favorite tipple but personally I have far more sophisticated tastes. Plus I can't abide spirits, I'll leave that to you and your fellow RE Eco Bird. :)

Don't forget you used the same pathetic attempt at a put down on GingerNinga too which was totally uncalled for, just goes to show what a very poor looser you are ttp.

Rents are still going up, thats what matters to me! I dont give a fig what happens to the price, I'm not selling any of my units anyway.So as far as I am concerned the whole discussion is moot. Its cash in that matters, too many people for not enough properties.

Interest rates are down for longer = cash in the pocket for longer= very happy thank you.

Buying in the regions is good now. Prices are low in say somewhere like New Plymouth, but rents are lower but relatively, price to rent ratio is much better than in Auckland.Buy now, dont miss out GingerNinja.

Hahahaha it’s been so much fun reading all the parodies of the village idiot, TTP.

Seriously, how someone can keep spouting lies, denial, and utter garbage everyday is beyond me.

Hi RichMuhlach,

Is that the most sophisticated contribution you can offer?

TTP

Ttp...ttp....ttp..... you have to be on steroids to keep relentlessly fighting a loosing battle

And then we have WOF for rental properties.

TTP, on 16 October you commented "Those people who are waiting to buy a house in the "coming slump" best buy themselves a comfy dressing gown and slippers - because they'll be waiting a very long time.
The house market is likely to pick up and become more buoyant in 2018 - no matter if Labour or National govern". At the time, several contributors asked you "why" to date this has gone unanswered. Is it because Ron Fong told you so? BTW, Ron says you can use your parents house if you want to, its even easy for even those with extremely limited financial knowledge: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1175...

Retired-Poppy ^^ priceless^^

Although, I won't ever mock a good suggestion about dressing gown and slippers, i'm rather partial to comfort myself.

Hi Retired-Poppy,

Suggest you take a cue from the lovely Gingerninja: get yourself a comfy dressing gown and slippers.

You may as well be comfortable in your twilight years - as the long wait goes on.

TTP

TTP, a response like that could easily be interpreted as you "having been found wanting". Your comment "The house market is likely to pick up and become more buoyant in 2018 - no matter if Labour or National govern", why? I kindly suggest you seize upon this opportunity and demonstrate there is some genuine insight behind your comment and it's not derived from some cheap property seminar.

Hi Retired-Poppy,

Have never attended a property seminar in my life. Complete waste of time and money if you ask me.

I hear such seminars are often marketed as "get rich quick schemes". If so, I'd advise anyone to stay well clear of them.

I see property as a long-term investment - because that's the low risk approach/strategy. People are able to build up a nest-egg slowly but surely - and not lose sleep over the "ups and downs" of the market.

I'm certainly no supporter of the so-called "specuvestor" approach. But each to their own.

TTP

....more waffle

Hi Retired-Poppy,

If you don't like what I've said - then tough. There are plenty of other people who endorse property as a long-term investment. And many have reaped benefits.

If you happen to be a fan of property seminars, then you're welcome to attend as many as you wish.

TTP