A record net migration of 70,694 in year to October

Property

Annual migration is still running at a record high but the monthly figures show it is starting to slowly decline

22nd Nov 17, 11:42am by Greg Ninness

The net population gain from migration set a new record in the 12 months to October, although on a monthly basis the numbers are slowly starting to decline.

There were 131,644 permanent and long term arrivals in the country in the 12 months to October and 60,950 long term departures, giving the record net gain of 70,694 for the 12 months.

However in the month of October there was a net gain of 7650, down very slightly from the net gain of 7943 in October last year.

That suggests that the huge growth in migration that has occurred over the last few years has now peaked and is starting to gradually decline.

There was a net loss of 1417 New Zealand citizens over the 12 months as more New Zealand citizens left the country permanently or long term than arrived back, and a net gain of 72,111 citizens of other countries.

The biggest source country for migrants remains China, with a net gain of 9595 from that country in the 12 months to October and another 711 from Hong Kong.

China was followed by India 6940, the UK 6555 and South Africa 4985 and the Philippines 4664.

The number of people migrating to Australia from this country and the number coming back to this country from across the ditch were almost evenly balanced, with a net loss of just 22 people to Australia in the 12 months to October

Of the 131,644 people who arrived in this country permanetly or long term in the year to October, the biggest group by far (46,013) were on work visas, followed by 38,461 New Zealand and Australian citizens, 24,021 on student visas, 15,936 on residency visas, 6572 on long term visitor visas and 641 others.

Auckland remained the destination of choice for migrants by a substantial margin, with a net gain 36,357 in the year to October.

However there were another 11,000 who did not state where they intended to live when they arrived, so Auckland's net population gain over the year was probably more than 40,000.

Net long term migration

Select chart tabs

Source: Statistics NZ

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139 Comments

by Double-GZ | 22nd Nov 17, 11:49am 1511304574

We need more Chinese residents here and they shouldn't be treated as foreign.

by frazz | 22nd Nov 17, 11:54am 1511304893

Can you explain why we need this?

by RickStrauss | 22nd Nov 17, 1:21pm 1511310073

"We need more people with more money than NZers to push house prices up."

by Nzdan | 22nd Nov 17, 4:53pm 1511322821

How many Chinese do you see going around beating people up, robbing dairies and committing burglaries?

by Esprit | 22nd Nov 17, 6:05pm 1511327126

How many Chinese do you see in court for being major players in drug importation/dealing?

by Nzdan | 22nd Nov 17, 7:52pm 1511333526

I imagine that figure would be far far less than the number of burglaries, assaults and dairy robberies going on.

by Brock Landers | 23rd Nov 17, 6:23am 1511371391

How many of those burglaries, assaults and robberies have something to do with the meth being bought in by the aforementioned?

by swapacrate | 22nd Nov 17, 11:21pm 1511346119

If you think Crime is great in China then China may be the country for you. Im pretty sure China has a lot of issues.

Its not about Burglaries etc. Its about resources, its about culture, jobs and property prices, its more then a simple look at burglaries. Maybe crime is up because accomodation is hard to afford, people sleep on the streets because of immigration. Jobs are hard to come by as all low income work is taken by overseas migrants.

There also a loss of NZ identity and culture which we are losing. I have no problem with immigration as long as people integrate. I have a problem with numbers being let in which make it hard to integrate.

by Robert Redford | 22nd Nov 17, 1:45pm 1511311533

China is New Zealands largest export earner yet we have a xenophobic government in power who hates anyone with Chinese sounding names?

by mfd | 22nd Nov 17, 1:50pm 1511311854

No, we don't. One member of the current coalition published the 'Chinese sounding names' data as a desperate response to a Government unwilling to collect or share any reliable data with the population on a touchy topic. Two members want to reduce immigration rates to a level still rather higher than many other Western countries to deal with a number of issues. I think you are overreacting.

by xingmowang | 22nd Nov 17, 3:27pm 1511317650

A role model minority ethnic group living in NZ, Chinese, being high on almost all good measures and low on almost all bad measures, has always been the scapegoat for almost every negative things happened in NZ or in the western world.

by RickStrauss | 22nd Nov 17, 3:30pm 1511317830

Care to point out how their immigration rules (and any proposed changes) apply to people of one race more than another?

by custard | 22nd Nov 17, 8:34pm 1511336085

Impressive Double-GZ

That's one helluva juicy bone you threw out there...

by NorthernLights | 24th Nov 17, 1:12pm 1511482349

Here Here DubleDzzzzz
My Chinese neighbours sure eclipsed you
Ha!

by Trying to build | 22nd Nov 17, 12:03pm 1511305437

It looks as if NZers are being replaced

by Penguin | 22nd Nov 17, 12:07pm 1511305644

..and hopefully a few whingers along with it.

by Didge | 22nd Nov 17, 1:33pm 1511310793

If whinging improves the lot of most New Zealanders than I am all for it.

by tothepoint - d… | 22nd Nov 17, 10:27pm 1511342822

Hi Penguin,

Nice thought - but getting rid of the whingers here is mere wishful thinking.

Some of the whingers should take the opportunity to learn from astute and gentlemanly Chinese investors.

TTP

by NorthernLights | 24th Nov 17, 1:15pm 1511482511

TTP you of all people could do with a few Chinese lessons

by Retired-Poppy | 22nd Nov 17, 12:08pm 1511305685

DGZ, yes and some people still think the earth is flat.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=119465…

by Trying to build | 22nd Nov 17, 12:22pm 1511306571

LOL - He could end up on that alien comet which looks like the monolith on 2001 A Space Odyssey when he drops over the edge.

by NorthernLights | 24th Nov 17, 1:20pm 1511482814

Right on the money Retired Poppy
I read in your Herald article it’s a steam rocket
DubleDzzz likes steam
He told me he remembers the Union Steam Ship company !
Rockets away with steam power & more Chinese language lessons for DubleDzz

by Boatman | 22nd Nov 17, 12:14pm 1511306048

Where's Winston ?

I voted for him based on his promise to hit the pause button on immigration .

Or like all politicians ............... was he lying ?

by mfd | 22nd Nov 17, 12:22pm 1511306578

Realistically, how quickly do you think action could be taken on this? Rules need to be agreed and changed, previously approved immigrants are still moving through the system, maybe even legislation needs changing. Did you honestly expect a dramatic drop in the first month of the new Government? These numbers are entirely due to the previous Government. If they haven't dropped in a year, then we have grounds to kick up a major fuss.

by Noncents | 22nd Nov 17, 12:53pm 1511308407

It can be done as quickly as they want. They make the laws.

They can implement an instant ban, regardless of current visa applications/statuses, and just tell everyone tough.

They could even go further and legislate that all non-citizens have 24 hours to leave the country. Again, might not be "fair" but they can do it.

The way I see it, if everyone knows a change is coming, but not sure when - then common sense would suggest you come now. i.e. we will see even higher immigration coming through until/if the change happens.

by mfd | 22nd Nov 17, 1:06pm 1511309213

OK, yes they could do those things. But how about realistically - how quickly can they act while balancing this against the desire not to scare the horses, and to not expose the Government to legal action? There's been a lot of comment about 'The Left' acting without thinking and risking damaging the economy, I don't think it's terrible to go through normal channels and accept a few more months of excessively high immigration which is the legacy of the previous Government.

by Noncents | 22nd Nov 17, 3:46pm 1511318806

Realistically, I don't think they will do much.

To turn any of the taps off would upset someone, impinge upon their rights, leave them struggling and deprived in their own country, or just upset with some hurt feelings.

I think the soft and cuddly Labour/Greens will approach immigration the way National approached housing. Campaign on the "crisis" then switch to "Nothing to see here folks, move along"

by BearBear | 22nd Nov 17, 6:20pm 1511328018

So true kiwi politicians are cowards compare to the likes of trump, Putin or Xi. I might do not agree with everything they do but at least they show some leadership that the common folk can aspire with. Labour and nation is just two opposit butt cheeks from the same arse

by Alter Ego | 22nd Nov 17, 7:03pm 1511330583

I think the model they work by is actually no Secret. Though I think Putin follows another trend.

One follows the Victorian one...Do not upset me, or you will be ostracized and made to cover oneself up, no hint of owt else.

Lay low....no navel gazing. No looking askance.

(Jeez, lucky it was not a full moon).

In a broad sense, I can agree with you, but not them, how can a mere mortal possibly agree with them, in another fashion, I would top this and start from the bottom up and cut ones cloth according to ones means.

Not something made in China...No frills is the way to go.

I think that it is strange in a modern World, that one must follow Victictoria's Secret...anyway, but then who am I to judge...

Wink Wink.

by bilbo | 22nd Nov 17, 1:15pm 1511309727

It's pretty easy to just raise the points required to gain skilled migrant visas and and remove, chefs, retail managers etc from the skills shortage lists.

by mfd | 22nd Nov 17, 1:30pm 1511310622

Any idea what the lead in time for that would be before it shows up in the stats? When National did the same a while ago I think the talk was in terms of several months.

by Noncents | 22nd Nov 17, 3:56pm 1511319376

Lead time depends how it is applied. It could be instant, it could be months/years.

As a voter, if I vote for a cut I expect it to be immediate. After all they can give free education at the drop of a hat.

by Lapun | 22nd Nov 17, 5:02pm 1511323354

Judging by the arbitrary freezing of the family reunification visa middle of last year it may take a few months to actually change. They could and should and really ought to do something about the appalling rorts related to student visas and PTE. Trivial to remove the right to work and the right to stay another year after study for all courses below say post graduate. Doesn't require parliaments approval. If they did it the figures wouldn't change until next year. And if they don't do it in the next few days it would be unnecessarily unfair to both students and PTE owners.

by TainuiBabe | 26th Nov 17, 2:31pm 1511659872

It looks like the effects are starting to take place now. Massey University is asking for it's staff to consider taking voluntary redundancy or early retirement packages, before they start axing people.

by Trying to build | 22nd Nov 17, 12:24pm 1511306668

He has been very quiet

by Eco Bird | 22nd Nov 17, 12:49pm 1511308143

LOL, he is busy !! ...hope your vote was not wasted after all !

by delboy | 22nd Nov 17, 1:40pm 1511311207

The type of people who believe politicians will stand by their pre-election promises are the same people who get sucked in by internet scammers.

by mvgsmf | 22nd Nov 17, 1:47pm 1511311650

Yeah how come they haven't fixed 9 years of open door immigration policy (and no doubt MANY MANY visa's already issued before the change in Govt) in 3 weeks...god they're useless.

I mean seriously Boatman - you're taking the piss right?

by Boatman | 22nd Nov 17, 2:47pm 1511315253

taking the piss ?

Not really , actually

Three weeks is more than enough time to increase the number of points to get in here from the current level to say 200 points and stop mass inward immigration in its tracks .

At least we would know the Government is serious about keeping its promises to the electorate if it took concrete steps to "pause the migration button " while we pitch some tents for those who have arrived

If anything its the end of the academic year , so there should be a net outlfow of non-citizens back to their home countries and the actual inward migration figure should be declining ............steeply .

Unless , of course those students have been given student -work visas to stay here and keep our petrol stations , liquor stores and fast food outlets open.

And , if thats the case why doesn't the Government bloody -well say so

by mvgsmf | 22nd Nov 17, 3:05pm 1511316301

Im pretty sure you mentioned you voted national on this site as you couldn't bear the alternative?

You are all over the place like the proverbial mad woman's - what on earth do you actually want?

- You want your property value to remain sky high BUT your kids to get a fair crack..
- You want a Govt to display ongoing stability and not scare the markets and trading partners but want instant and dramatic cuts to immigration within weeks of being elected.

Either you are in lala (lalalala) land or a troll plain and simple.

I have many many doubts about this mob but to expect such change in 3 weeks is ludicrous....

by Boatman | 22nd Nov 17, 8:30pm 1511335805

I did not vote National , and have NEVER said I voted National in this election .......... I voted NZ First , and I still have my doubts about this coalition holding .

The only thing that brings any stability to the coalition is Peters , who will not be cowed easily , and will not tolerate any extreme left-wing lunacy .

by TainuiBabe | 22nd Nov 17, 9:31pm 1511339500

I'm in your camp Boatman. Winston Peters was the only viable option for me too. He won't tolerate lefty lunacy but he has the sense to know when New Zealanders are being exploited. I don't regret being part of the 7% that changed the government.

by Yankiwi | 22nd Nov 17, 4:46pm 1511322404

The lag in the system from changing the qualifying points to changing the number of immigrants arriving is likely measured in years. I submitted my application in late 2005, and finally immigrated in late 2007. That lag was a full two years. So, changing the required points for qualification will not change the immigration rate anytime soon...

by TainuiBabe | 22nd Nov 17, 9:34pm 1511339651

Two years is "short term".

by Davo36 | 22nd Nov 17, 3:07pm 1511316438

You moron. Why would you vote for someone who holds up a sign saying "No" when the answer is "Yes" and then expect them to keep their promises.

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. In this case, you.

Look, they all lie, but Winnie lies more than them all combined.

Also, look back to when he was last in government with Labour in 2003. Record high immigration. Look it up. Don't ask Winnie - he will lie to you.

by Groen_mamba | 22nd Nov 17, 3:22pm 1511317333

Still crying? Time to suck it up mate YOU LOST THE ELECTION!! No amount of name calling will change that fact. Go Winnie!

by NorthernLights | 24th Nov 17, 1:22pm 1511482920

If I know Winston he’ll be at the races with a tall drink
Sorry drinks

by Doris | 22nd Nov 17, 12:23pm 1511306621

I don't see that 300 less this October compared to October '16 is showing much of a slowdown - a bit of a misleading title IMHO.

by NorthernLights | 24th Nov 17, 1:23pm 1511483032

I’ve done my bit for the Chinese
Turned over my REstate to them
The local schools will soon be teaching English as a second language
Good Luck Auckland

by Groen_mamba | 22nd Nov 17, 12:23pm 1511306624

Don't lose hope yet Boatman! I still think he will make a difference...early days

by Boatman | 22nd Nov 17, 12:26pm 1511306814

Our politicians are like FENCE POST TURTLES
When you're driving down a country road and you come across a fence post with a turtle balanced on top, that's a fence post turtle."
You know they didn't get there by themselves , they don't belong there, they don't know what to do while they're up there, and they are pretty useless to anyone and everyone while sitting there .

by Eco Bird | 22nd Nov 17, 1:03pm 1511309009

Now that was a very good statement Boatman - full mark for that

by NorthernLights | 24th Nov 17, 1:28pm 1511483280

So what sort of creature is the NZ voter then Boatman ?
To accept such mediocrity from politicians without any real concerted protest
Kiwis are far to easy going

by Alter Ego | 22nd Nov 17, 12:36pm 1511307392

Probably doing a Mugabe, sleeping on the Job.

Butt as an aside, maybe we should invite Mugabe to be our next Prime Munnyster....Cos he knew how to make Billions....when running Zimbabwe...A POOR COUNTRY.

NUFF SAID...

by Brock Landers | 22nd Nov 17, 1:41pm 1511311281

Not enough infrastructure. Not enough homes.

70,694 kiwis displaced in their own country.

There should be riots.

by Robert Redford | 22nd Nov 17, 2:06pm 1511312808

Landlords have got out of rentals and cant buy anymore this will become more of a crisis when Labour brings in more restrictions.

Landlords have been bullied since Labour have been in opposition and this has gained traction in the media and has now created a rental crisis.

Private providers of rental housing to their community have no real voice to protect themselves and indeed the tenants homes which they provide for.

by mfd | 22nd Nov 17, 2:20pm 1511313602

Not sure of the relevance of this comment to the article - are you agreeing that we need to limit migration to get our rental market in order? With home ownership rates at a ~60 year low and falling, I hardly think the proportion of our housing stock owned by investors is at a critical low.

by Solidname | 22nd Nov 17, 2:24pm 1511313881

Woe those poor landlords, I was really hoping to donate more of my taxes to those altruistic souls, who do nothing but house the poor and needy out of the goodness of their hearts. You should start a givealittle page.

by RickStrauss | 22nd Nov 17, 3:32pm 1511317948

Landlords have been bullied since Labour have been in opposition

Interesting. I've not seen a likely National party voter claim that landlords have been bullied since National came into government before.

by Roger Witherspoon | 22nd Nov 17, 3:58pm 1511319524

Elimination of depreciation on buildings was a fairly heavy blow from Bill English. This amounted to a significant increase in taxation on all businesses that owned buildings. Of course buildings do in fact depreciate in real terms even if their nominal earning ability appears not to due to inflation.

Just the sneaky sort of attack on business you expect from National, the problem being that they have a better grasp of numbers than their brethren of a more left leaning persuasion. Usually left leaning governments are more free spending and introduce lots of nice loopholes to encourage the fashionable ideas of the day.

All governments see business as an easy target, I mean these are the people who actually know how to make a profit, whatever that is. Profit to a politician being a sort of mythical substance that they cannot ever hope to understand, let alone create.

If NZ wasn't so messed up then surely landlords would be putting up nice new rental accomodation pdq. You know, competing with each other for business. Regulations favour existing businesses and create barriers for new entrants.

In an idle moment I even pondered a branded franchise provisionally to be called "Wetherspoon Apartments" providing decent, double glased accomodation to a consistent standard with a code of conduct and so on and so forth. Thankfully, I did not have the money or inclination to indulge the fantasy. The question remains though - Why are we so anti-business that the private sector does not spontaneously do this?

by BearBear | 22nd Nov 17, 6:35pm 1511328907

Lol!! Landlords being bullied?? Unless renters do a Chinese communist style cultural revolution against landlords, they are far from being bullied. This is like gosh I am so poor paying my top tax rate while earning 1/4 mill a year.

by Noncents | 22nd Nov 17, 10:50pm 1511344231

It's the same as any corporate restructure.

The smart ones see the writing on the wall and leave.

The rabble stays behind and the problems get worse.

by NorthernLights | 24th Nov 17, 1:28pm 1511483317

Brock Landers you’re 100% Right

by Alter Ego | 22nd Nov 17, 2:33pm 1511314400

What's in a name..

Take-a-lot is the scam of the game...not give-a-little...you have the names mixed up.

One is for good, the other for evil....naming no names...but obvious to those who see the lust after Houses.

by Robert Redford | 22nd Nov 17, 2:46pm 1511315171

I quess after the General Valuer has approved the latest Auckland Council Valuations we all have received it looks like we all have made some serious value on our family homes.

We should celebrate this and encourage others to buy property before the next valuation in 2020.

by mfd | 22nd Nov 17, 2:52pm 1511315574

Why would a country celebrate an increase in cost of living?

by Boatman | 22nd Nov 17, 2:57pm 1511315851

Precisely mfd , we need to recognize the undisputed economic reality that an increase in the costs of housing and accommodation makes almost everyone poorer............and those who are already poor ( and usually renters) are hammered the most

by Didge | 22nd Nov 17, 3:21pm 1511317279

"We should celebrate this and encourage others to buy property before the next valuation in 2020." Another property spruiker. Sadly they are seriously eroding the quality of this site.

by john wheeler | 22nd Nov 17, 7:29pm 1511332173

I see tothepoint aka Double-GZ aka Zachary Smith aka Yvil all the same real estate agent , has now set up another username to hide behind, and his name is Robert Redford !!!

by Yvil | 23rd Nov 17, 9:14am 1511381653

Poor you

by Retired-Poppy | 23rd Nov 17, 9:19am 1511381977

Yvil, realestate.co.nz - Auckland 13,565. Get busy, do some cold calling - sell these houses!

by Ex Expat | 23rd Nov 17, 10:05am 1511384728

Note to future self: When my wife kicks me out of the house for the day, Probus won't allow me to attend meetings anymore and the local Mens Club have blackballed me, I can still take my homemade sandwiches to the Library, log on to the computer and troll the Interest.co.nz boards. It would be a sad life, but it would still have meaning...I hope.

by Robert Redford | 22nd Nov 17, 2:59pm 1511315942

Working Class people are the majority of home owners in New Zealand which is a fact ignored by the media and Labours housing beat up.

Take a look around most neighbourhoods most people have to go to work to pay the mortgage!

If the working class make a little money on their hard earned asset is that wrong?

by mfd | 22nd Nov 17, 3:14pm 1511316840

What definition of Working Class are you using here? People who have jobs? I don't think many would disagree that most home owners have jobs.

How do rising house prices make these people money? It only helps if you are downsizing or have multiple properties. Most people are not in either camp, and those looking to upsize are disadvantaged by rising prices.

However, for those without homes (many of whom have jobs too), rising house prices is a pure negative.

by Robert Redford | 22nd Nov 17, 3:22pm 1511317356

If new Zealand houses did not make any capital gain do you think those negative people would be as interested in buying a home.

I would suggest they would be just as happy renting and would not complain to the Herald.

If some one makes money in New Zealand thats when there is a political media uproar as we have seen.

by mfd | 22nd Nov 17, 3:33pm 1511317992

I think that if they'd made no capital gains over the past few years, many more would be able to afford to buy one. Many want to buy for emotional reasons, and are unable to for financial reasons. High prices are the problem, not people being afraid capital gains won't be high in the future.

by Wildcard | 22nd Nov 17, 3:53pm 1511319205

If NZ houses did not make any capital gain people would probably be more interested in buying a home as the prices wouldn't be so high and therefore houses would be a lot more affordable. Owning a house would become a realistic goal.

No, people wouldn't be just as happy renting as they're still at the mercy of their landlord and potential substandard property. If renters owned their own house they can improve it (e.g. heat pumps, proper insulation, additions, landscaping...) and have a better home than a NZ rental property, not to mention the greater accommodation security, safety, sense of achievement and reduced stress owner occupiers have.

by Robert Redford | 22nd Nov 17, 3:22pm 1511317356

If new Zealand houses did not make any capital gain do you think those negative people would be as interested in buying a home.

I would suggest they would be just as happy renting and would not complain to the Herald.

If some one makes money in New Zealand thats when there is a political media uproar as we have seen.

by Didge | 22nd Nov 17, 3:29pm 1511317783

Absolute nonsence!.

by RickStrauss | 22nd Nov 17, 3:35pm 1511318140

Looks like they let Ted Stanton back on the site after a change of nom de plume.

by BearBear | 22nd Nov 17, 9:35pm 1511339704

Totally agree!!! Less people owning their own homes means higher chance of failed families in the making due to instability which in turn is never good for a wellfare state as it means govt have to support more people that should had being able to support themselves and their families. And last time I asked around, working class means employees not including management staff. And boy you will be surprise that a lot of them are renters.

by taupomatt | 22nd Nov 17, 3:59pm 1511319553

What is the use of capital gain for your average owner occupier unless you sell up. Of course you don't want to lose money so a little gain is normal. But when it is off the charts, what is the point or the use to normal people that just want to have a home.

OK so you can get some equity and "move up the ladder". But then all the rungs get further apart. If you say for simplicity that all the houses went up the same percentage. If you bought a house in 2010 for $500k and you set your sites on the better $1m, then in 7 years (2017) when your house price has doubled, so has the distance between the rungs - $1m instead of $500k. So this doesn't just effect FHB, it effects anyone that moves to get something bigger or better. Do you actually feel better having to fund that bigger mortgage, or do you just feel better stood around a bbq talking big numbers your mates.

I honestly believe it is something that will eventually implode and come crashing down. Maybe not this cycle or even the next, but it can't keep doubling and doubling. Perhaps we will see 50 year mortgages in the next 20 years, but it will become very difficult when they need to be longer that your average life expectancy. What about when your average house is $51m - in approx 70 years if you use the average 10 year doubling cycle on $800k. With wage increases over the last 20 year, we had better hope the next 70 has something vastly different waiting for us.

Look at the recent history. We went from the average family having a single income, to needing two incomes. Maybe we will all need 5 wives in years to come just to pay the mortgage - maybe that will be fun.

by Didge | 22nd Nov 17, 3:28pm 1511317685

Furthermore rising house prices especially in and near Auckland are proving to be a negative for many businesses.

by THE MAN 2 | 22nd Nov 17, 3:40pm 1511318430

We need immigration to keep things going.
I have stated that this coalition will be the most despised Government of all time, but I didn’t think it would be happening after just 3 weeks of being in power.
Experts are now coming out and saying that there is going to be a recession under Jacinda ardern’s leadership!
Gee who would have guesssed?
The 11 billion shortfall that Steven Joyce was claiming pre election and was rubbished by Labour is now looking like 16 billion apparently!
Those that voted this lot in and are happy with it are going to be sadly disappointed.
All these freebies like education etc. has to come from somewhere and they have no idea of what they are doing.
They are out of their depth and Grant Robertson is going to have to produce his budget shortly which is going to be comical.

by gingerninja | 22nd Nov 17, 3:48pm 1511318928

NZ had reached the end of it's credit/debt cycle, and migration was peaking anyway, dairy prices are in decline regardless of which government got in, I would have said there was a high chance of a slow down from 2017 on wards.

The new government hasn't really done anything yet, and all these factors were already prevalent. It's a cheap dig to blame it on Labour/NZF

by Yankiwi | 22nd Nov 17, 5:08pm 1511323693

The $11B was actually somewhat correct. What Joyce was wrong about, was claiming that Labour did their maths wrong. Where Labour went wrong was in assuming rates of GDP growth and tax take increases that were way optimistic in comparison to the PREFU. Their predictions were clearly erroneous, to the level of being laughable in their optimism. This is one of the items that I found quite disappointing with the Labour campaign promises. Also, still disappointed that they took CGT off of the table...

by pin3cone | 22nd Nov 17, 7:02pm 1511330567

The relentless campaign by the Nats and their pets the young Nats on a CGT "taking your rightful (??!!) money away from you" was expertly delivered and had the desired effect. They made Kiwis and permanent residents think only of themselves, and not of their country, and dare I say it, the greater good. It was truly a brainwash/smear campaign, and it worked, striking fear into the hearts of the middle class household that they would be "worse off" than they are now.

The devil was handing them a carrot. Oh the irony.

by RickStrauss | 22nd Nov 17, 3:55pm 1511319324

Who would've predicted a recession?

Err...so many have been predicting we're likely heading into a down cycle, along with other parts of the world.

by NorthernLights | 24th Nov 17, 1:30pm 1511483443

You’re wasted in NZ Rick
Smart as they come

by Wildcard | 22nd Nov 17, 5:28pm 1511324902

Newsflash: Recessions happen regardless of who is in power, and one is going to occur whether Labour is in power or not. Unlimited growth is impossible and quantitative easing hasn't worked. Interest rates can only be pushed so low before everything collapses, and NZ has almost no impact on the global economic scale. We're just a tiny boat with no engine or sails floating on an ocean and can only go where the wind and current takes us.

Your National didn't do much to try and mitigate against a recession despite being in power for 9 years. Blowing asset bubbles and debt binging instead of stimulating productive investment in NZ, improving GDP per capita, promoting paying off household debt and encouraging wage inflation. "Wage parity with Australia" sure was a great success.

by ham n eggs | 22nd Nov 17, 4:42pm 1511322123

the man - ive a better idea.
Lets set fire to Auckland. Level it.
The building boom will be amazing.
Even bigger & better than the Nats rebuild Chch economic plan.
I cant believe Shonkey didnt think of it.

by Fritz | 22nd Nov 17, 5:33pm 1511325211

Which 'expert' has said there will be a recession under Labour?
If you are talking about the Forbes contributor - I would respectfully suggest he knows almost zilch about NZ, and almost zilch about the details of the govt's policies.
It's just clickbait garbage

by Didge | 22nd Nov 17, 3:46pm 1511318777

THE MAN 2. With utter garbage such as this you are merely making a fool of yourself. Or are you trying to destroy this forum?

by Retired-Poppy | 22nd Nov 17, 4:10pm 1511320207

THE MAN 2, did you vote for John Key? Remember, he's the guy who previously was an investment banker and sold his Parnel property to a Chinese buyer while he still could. Suggest you take a leaf out of his book, he knew when to sell.......National Party is OVER, property party's OVER, no more moaning, embrace change and prosper!

by Robert Redford | 22nd Nov 17, 4:48pm 1511322513

John Key is rich not like the rest of us working class people who have scrimped and saved hard to own a house.

Labours housing policy wont touch him but us lower level working class family home owners will get hit hard with changes in policy.

by mfd | 22nd Nov 17, 4:57pm 1511323021

Once again - how does the price of your house affect you unless you have multiple houses or are looking to downsize? Specifically, how would a reduction in the price of your house affect your life?

by Robert Redford | 22nd Nov 17, 5:03pm 1511323400

If the Government took $100k out of your savings account how would you feel? It's only money you say?

by mfd | 22nd Nov 17, 5:23pm 1511324605

Not a fair analogy. Unless you have a spare house or are downsizing, you will only ever trade your house for another in the same market. The whole market rising or falling is pretty irrelevant to that trade. Again - what would be the direct impact on your life if all Auckland house prices fell by 10% tomorrow?

by Fritz | 22nd Nov 17, 5:30pm 1511325011

I mostly agree, but if house prices fell by 10% tomorrow and you had topped up your mortgage with the purchase of an expensive car it wouldn't be great because your debt has gone up and your asset value has gone in the opposite direction

by mfd | 22nd Nov 17, 5:44pm 1511325841

It wouldn't be great, but it wouldn't actually impact your cashflow position. It may make it more difficult to borrow in the future, but I'm not sure it's good to encourage people to continually top up their mortgages as far as possible anyway. The money still needs to be paid back one day.

by Fritz | 22nd Nov 17, 6:26pm 1511328366

yes

by Fritz | 22nd Nov 17, 6:27pm 1511328420

Stick to the acting.
Read this:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&obj…

by TainuiBabe | 22nd Nov 17, 9:47pm 1511340440

I wouldn't be worrying about the government taking 100K out of your bank term deposit. Your Australian owned bank is quite capable of taking that money from you overnight, if it fails. It is called the "OBR" policy and yes it is legal and John Key signed it off about 3 years ago.

by NorthernLights | 24th Nov 17, 1:34pm 1511483692

Tainui Babe
So the AU banks can steal the term deposits out of their NZ subsidiaries customers accounts ?
Yet the AU banks must insure every AU bank account deposit up to AU$250,000 !
Another example of Australia treating kiwis like serfs

by Brock Landers | 22nd Nov 17, 9:53pm 1511340811

They have. To everyone not yet a homeowner. For each of the last five years they flooded our country with Asian overflow.

by Fritz | 22nd Nov 17, 5:20pm 1511324426

'Of the 131,644 people who arrived in this country permanently or long term in the year to October, the biggest group by far (46,013) were on work visas, followed by 38,461 New Zealand and Australian citizens, 24,021 on student visas, 15,936 on residency visas, 6572 on long term visitor visas and 641 others.'

So, the majority of 'immigrants' are not necessarily 'permanent' in the true sense of the word. If most of the 46,013 on work visas, and most of the 24,021 on student visas, do not stay permanently then the true net gain is actually very limited.

Let's say 35K and 20K respectively of those groups do not stay in NZ, and also subtract 6572 on long term visitor visas, and you are only left with a net gain of 7000 or 8000.
Have I got this wrong? I don't think so. In which case the so called housing implications are overblown

by RickStrauss | 22nd Nov 17, 5:38pm 1511325535

and most of the 24,021 on student visas, do not stay permanently then...

That's quite an assumption, though. No one is coming to New Zealand because of the high quality of the education they receive in the PTE (Pretend Tertiary Education) sector. Even the staff at these institutes have been heard to say that people are only here for the residency backdoor.

by NorthernLights | 24th Nov 17, 1:49pm 1511484586

Absolutely the majority of migrants are seeking NZ residency at least for a couple of years before embarking to
Australia which is closer to home & family by air and pays higher wage rates/ salaries along with a cheaper
living expense for a family.
Australia however they will find never fully will accept the new migrants and if they fall on hard times Australia will eject them back to ??? Good Old Suckers New Zealand to take care of them when everything goes bust in Australia
Weak NZ governments have allowed Australia to do as they please with migrants including kiwis
Good old Australia abusing using & yet they call NZ their friend

by WestieAJ | 22nd Nov 17, 5:57pm 1511326661

The vast majority of those people that have come here on Work and Student visas intend to stay permanently. In order to keep the economy growing the government created loopholes in the immigration system big enough to fly a jumbo jet through. These immigrants have signed up for a period of exploitation with the payoff being residence in a 1st world county once they have served their time. The political fallout would be enormous from what would amount to mass deportations if their visas were not extended. The government privatised the granting of the right to work in New Zealand. As usual the resulting profits have been corporatised and the costs socialised. Morally we need to allow all those who are here now to stay.
But we need to seriously cut the number coming in from now on.

by Fritz | 22nd Nov 17, 6:02pm 1511326932

yeah although intention to stay and actually staying can be different things, especially if the govt is true to its word on cracking down on low skilled immigrants. Also, if the economy weakens we may see more leaving our fair shores.
Also, my comment below still stands - even if people on these work and student visas stay, how many realistically will be able to buy in Auckland?

by Bobster | 22nd Nov 17, 6:03pm 1511327026

That analysis is absolutely spot on. These “education programmes” are in substance a massive immigration scam and a total scandal.

by Averageman | 23rd Nov 17, 10:02am 1511384551

Yep. Backdoor NZ via entry into Australia.Why Aussie has recently sharpened its policy for accepting Kiwi Visas.

by NorthernLights | 24th Nov 17, 1:42pm 1511484164

WestieAJ Right On !

by Lapun | 22nd Nov 17, 9:05pm 1511337915

the figures are based on travellers arriving and leaving NZ and assuming they fill in their forms honestly. So a student arrives, spend a few minutes at a PTE and works like a slave (displacing honest Kiwis) in a menial job. He keeps living in NZ and persuades the dept of Immigration that he is really skilled (bribes employer) and becomes a permanent resident. Five years later becomes a citizen and gets a NZ passport.Therefore never appears in these migration figures from the day he arrived as a student.

So what matters is who becomes a permanent resident. And there are 45,000 to 50,000 of them. Some are wonderful surgeons and talented experienced IT professionals. Some are chefs, bakers and tourist guides. On balance they appear to earn below average wages so you an guess which are the majority. Then their visa entitles their partners and children to become citizens too. [I know this comment is true because I did it myself with wife and four children - 15 years later on balance NZ just about did OK].

Compare with a typical OECD country and the 45,000 would be under 15,000 - this is one business where NZ is the world leader.

by NorthernLights | 24th Nov 17, 1:45pm 1511484343

Lapun you should be hired immediately as associate immigration minister
How about it Jacinda?

by Noncents | 22nd Nov 17, 11:02pm 1511344951

You raise an interesting question - Just how are the numbers counted?

My understanding is that the immigration stats are based on the actual arrivals, at the time of arrival.

So, a student who came in to NZ in 2015 is recorded for the month they arrived.
But if they stay into 2016 they are not counted, as they didn't re-enter the country.
If they continue staying into 2017 and convert to a Permanent resident, then they are also absent from the stats.

Without 1-1 matching of the stats (i.e. match the individual's entry and exit) , you really have no idea how many are coming in and staying.

by custard | 22nd Nov 17, 5:24pm 1511324691

My goodness - this article has certainly set the room alight.
Seems a bit odd then that it wasn't a major boil over issue during the recent election - all the major parties maintained a cautious distance.

by THE MAN 2 | 22nd Nov 17, 5:34pm 1511325298

Seriously, you would have to be deficient if you think that the policies that are being implemented are going to be beneficial for the economy.
The reason they are talking about a recession has nothing at all to do with National but the policies that Labour etc. are bringing in.
Watch this space and what ai am saying is going to play out.
You can defend what they are doing to the cows come home but where is the growth of the country going to come from.
Where is Winston at the moment?
Unfortunately for the country for the next 3 years max we are in for a rocky ride.
“The Man”has spoken and he does know what he is talking about!

by mfd | 22nd Nov 17, 5:39pm 1511325583

Are you so pessimistic that you think the only way the country can grow is by increasing the population? Maybe we can return to growing the GDP per capita, rather than the recent increases in GDP with flatlining per capita values.

Regardless, the economy is just one aspect of the country, and it should not be placed on a pedestal above all others. Rich people do not mean happy people (above a certain threshold the correlation is weak if not non-existent) and does not automatically mean a well preserved ecosystem. These things have value too.

by Didge | 23rd Nov 17, 8:22am 1511378538

"“The Man”has spoken and he does know what he is talking about!" Yeh right.

by nymad | 23rd Nov 17, 8:40am 1511379653

Just like the other day when he told us that he is ineligible for the pension because he earns too much money?

by Didge | 22nd Nov 17, 5:40pm 1511325642

Fritz you are omitting the probability that if every year has somewhat the same numbers of arrival and departures our population will continue to increase. In other words, if after the periods of time work visas are allocated for, the workers go home. It matters if as fast as they leave, others take their places.

by Fritz | 22nd Nov 17, 5:47pm 1511326059

yeah I guess you are right, but maybe the reality is more in the middle somewhere?
Also, I think my main contention still has validity from the perspective of house 'buying' - large (net) numbers of immigrants coming in each year on work visas / student visas will certainly add to rental demand, but not much to buying demand???? (all things being equal)

by Didge | 22nd Nov 17, 8:04pm 1511334242

Good point.

by Bobster | 22nd Nov 17, 8:31pm 1511335917

Yes, I think that’s right. Current high levels of immigration are not contributing proportionately to owner occupier demand, as much of that immigration seems low value which couldn’t afford to buy at current prices. These current prices are not primarily driven by owner occupier demand, they have primarily been about investor demand and easy credit. It’s an investment bubble. The best proxy we have for accomodation demand for housing is rentals. Auckland has seen material but in my view not significant rental increases. Rental increases are completely out of whack with house price increases.

by Fritz | 22nd Nov 17, 8:48pm 1511336922

Yes.
An Indian friend has told me that a lot of Indian students homestay with Indian families in South Auckland.
And obviously a lot of students and young people on work visas live in CBD apartments.
Hence, these factors might help partly explain the relatively limited rental increases.

by Fritz | 22nd Nov 17, 9:09pm 1511338152

Currently more than 300 homestays advertised on this website alone:

https://www.aucklandhomestay.org/?gclid=Cj0KCQiA3dTQBRDnARIsAGKSfll_0OK…

by Fritz | 23rd Nov 17, 7:56am 1511376975

It would be interesting to track back to data from the early / mid 2000s. I have a strong hunch that permanent residents would have formed a much larger proportion of overall net migration than it does now.
Hence, realisable demand for owner occupier housing would have been greater then than now, in terms of migrants.

by Penguin | 22nd Nov 17, 6:07pm 1511327220

The Economist is arguing immigration is a good thing(in moderation)
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21718873-whatever-p…

by Fritz | 22nd Nov 17, 6:25pm 1511328313

I think it's good, in moderation, too.
The problem is, immigration to NZ has not been in moderation.

by Lapun | 22nd Nov 17, 9:07pm 1511338020

We are world leaders. I wonder why nobody is keen to copy us?

by Didge | 23rd Nov 17, 8:53am 1511380383

Germany did and look what is happening there.

by BearBear | 23rd Nov 17, 6:40pm 1511415603

While nz is taking in large portion of low quality immigrants from 3rd world countries we are far from what Germany had done. They are taking in refugees that some are just economic migrants with a crazy mix of criminal tendency and Islam. We on the other hand are just taking in hard working folks that are keen on getting exploited. I dare say anything is better than hardcore Islam.

by custard | 22nd Nov 17, 7:28pm 1511332116

From a simple market perspective - far too much, far too quickly.

Result = quite horrific market distortions that simply cannot be sustained.

So, a wonderful little party for some that needs to, and now probably will, come to an end - for those that may be affected, plan and act accordingly, instead of hoping for status quo - there will need to be a degree of adjustment.

Chose to become a statistic, or hop aboard and come to terms with a brave new world.

by THE MAN 2 | 23rd Nov 17, 8:38am 1511379480

Labour stated that they were going to cut down immigration dramatically!
They were quoting figures but now they have gone back on that and now those figures have gone out the door.

by nymad | 23rd Nov 17, 8:42am 1511379763

Learn about economic lags and leads, TM2.

Or just continue to be the brunt of our jokes.
Your choice, I guess.

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Nov 17, 9:17am 1511381856

TM2 - could you remind me what Nationals immigration policies were?

by Robert Redford | 23rd Nov 17, 9:58am 1511384311

Im starting to like Labour as they see common sense on immigration by not cutting back on much needed people into our country boosting our economy.

The banning of overseas investment is economic suicide and xenophobic but most of those buyers would only buy a house like John Keys mansion and would not be interested majority of our working class family houses.

Under Labour historically house prices have risen the most so as a family home owner I should not complain and look forward to the next Auckland Council Capital Value doubling in 2020.

I see Jacinder is smiling about her Point Chev home increase. We should all be smiling with our lovely Prime Minister.

by Gill | 23rd Nov 17, 9:17am 1511381856

Has anyone got any data on how many immigrants with work visas actually stay beyond three years? Because if it's just those European backpacker types who come for a year and then return home, then all of this data is completely skewed.