Realestate.co.nz says the housing market cooled in the main centres last month but it's still on the boil in the provinces

The regions got spanked hard last time there was a correction and I expect the same to occur this time.

Did you say 6.8% drop, just checking, a 6.8% drop, you dont say.

Wonder whats going to happen when interest rates increase, immigration drops, foreign buyers are stopped from buying, losses cant be used. Mmm interesting times.

That would appear to be the case from looking at this graph:
Barfoot & Thompson Average Sale Price

This data is about asking price, not average price. The same did not happen last year to the same degree, using the same dataset. January 2018, Auckland sees a 20% rise in stock, a 4% fall in asking price. January 2017, Auckland say a 5.5% rise in stock, a 0.7% fall in asking price.

https://www.realestate.co.nz/blog/news/nz-property-report-january-2017

The asking price today is essentially the same as a year ago, so it has fallen in real terms. Not an encouraging release.

Edit: I think my stock comparison isn't right actually - comparing new listings stats vs total stock stats - ignore that. Can't find the new release on realestate.co.nz to do a direct comparison so was basing on the data in the article for January 2018. Asking price comparison should be valid.

Some provinces are in late catch up mode, as prices were flat from 2009 to 2015, while Auckland was soaring throughout.

Not for a while - spent the last month trying to get something in Taupo for my work - same issues ended up paying full asking price and quick settlement to secure a deceased estate where family just wanted the money out quickly - I Think the demand in the regions is disproportionately higher when measured against housing stock available - with lots of people still relocating to the smaller towns - growth in their industries - particularly tourism becoming an all year round boom - as well as normal population growth -

The supply and demand ratio still very much in favour of further increases - and unlike Tauranga, and Auckland - still plenty of borrowing power available to buyers in terms of their ability to service mortgages at current prices

As for prices firming in Auckland - 20% increase in stock for sale is a lot of extra options - herd mentality at play could see current softening lasting most of the year and even some 10% falls - before eventually firming but i wold not bet on it - and thats probably the crux of the matter - would investors - not FHB"s fr whom if you can afford it at 2% more then do it applies- buy in auckland at the moment - i fthe answer is yes or maybe - then market will firm - if the answer is NAH - market will drop

I certain wold not buy yet in Auckland unless essential for business purposes- not from and investment perspective - yields still very poor compared to the regions / commercial / shares - and hard to see any capital gains in the next three years -

Demographics...the oldies cashing up to move the regions....in a few years they will be cashing up for Rymans. Job growth in the regions based on servicing old people. What sort of sustinable model is that?

The regions have been in decline for good reason...bumping them up with old people and care workers is a blip, not a remedy.

Yes plenty of heat in parts of the Bay market especially at higher end properties. Some selling 20 to 30% over what they were sold for 12-24 months ago. There are people putting in high offers with no conditions i.e. builders report etc on 100 plus yr old properties. Seem to be overseas or cashed up Aucklanders or locals that have sold to the same. Good luck to them!!!

I moved here in 2009 from Auckland when the Auckland market had gone flat/backwards following the GFC, the Bay hadn't heard of the GFC and everyone were hanging on for the over inflated priced they paid between 2006-2008. Through 2010-2013 many houses were selling for less than they were sold in the last boom. I would say there is a 12-24 month lag.

I recently sold a Wgtn property and sold for 5% above expectations in multi-offer situation. Have looked to purchase a replacement property in Wgtn and have not been within cooee at tender close.

I look at how well cr*p properties are selling, and have noted all the Evans Bay leaky buildings have been cleaned up over the last 3 weeks. On ground market was flat late 2017, now appears to be surging and possibly will hitch up another 10%. This is the telltale sign I have seen over the years as always active in market, cr*p properties get cleaned up and then a sudden surge in price.

At last someone asking intelligent questions about Wellington rental market.
I have just written this comment about it.
The media has caught up on comments by Trademe about Wellington rentals being in short supply. The situation in Wellington is nothing extraordinary compared with Nelson. Just look at these figures.
Jan 16 Jan17 Jan18 Feb18
Wellington 1612 1167 817 1015
Nelson/ Tasman 151 102 77 113

Of course greater Wellington has a population 5 times greater than Nelson. So on a per head of population basis they have double the number of vacancies compared with Nelson.

Trademe has 10878 listings in Auckland. Feb 2017 and Nov 2017 the number was over 11800, same for Wellington where 1910 at present and was over 2000 listings a few months back.

Money phobia: The fear of money both physical and psycholoigical. Sufferers tend to be unable to handle money and as a result live in extreme poverty. "Wikipedia"

I doubt very much there will be a crash, but I expect an average fall across Auckland of circa 5% this year with some discrete areas falling 10-20%

for once I partially agree with you, sale prices are more accurate, however if asking prices are lower that would indicate that sales prices would also be lower.

Where I disagree is "Organic Demand is growing by the minute" . With inventories rising constantly over the last 10 months or so, there is plenty of supply (6 months worth of inventory was recently reported) then real demand has clearly diminished.

Talking only about Auckland of course

Number of evil foreigners down and yet housing prices don't fall - how is such a thing possible?

Give Jian Yang and Bill a call and see what they can do.

i think you actually miss his commentary.. everytime there is no comments from The Man/Boy/Lad.. you wake him up

My trusty RE agent in Ponsonby said in her email "the time to buy is NOW, don't miss this opportunity"

PS. She's now driving an used Jap import 1 series BMW instead of a 3 series convertible

Actually, closer inspection reveals that values could be skewed downwards in Dec 17 as there were no sales over $4 Mill whereas there were 2 sales over $4Mill in Dec 2016

and then lose most of their wealth in the coming housing crash?

THE MAN 2, am amazed with such a vast portfolio you can remember where each property is located.

Perhaps if Christchurch becomes to small for you, purchasing some rural Canterbury land will put your PHD in Bovine Scatology to some use ;-)

The Boy only has a couple of as is where is shacks so doubt that linklater01. The property news about Christchurch just goes from bad to worse. No wonder he is grumpy on it. And his RE commissions are reducing so bad news all around.