Barfoot & Thompson's sales for June suggest the Auckland housing market remained largely flat for the first month of winter.
The agency sold 903 residential properties last month compared to the 1027 it sold in May but ahead of the 855 it sold in June last year. However, it was well down on the numbers for June from 2012 to 2016 when they were generally around 1000 or more.
The average selling price edged up slightly to $928,842 compared to $918,465 in May but still below the peak of $968,570 set in March last year.
The median price headed in the opposite direction and dropped to $810,000 compared to $820,000 in May.
It was the third consecutive month that Barfoot's median selling price has fallen and it is now at its lowest point since July last year and well below its peak of $900,000 set in March last year.
"The sales data for June is a mix of up and down numbers, but overall sales, prices and availability remained stable," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said.
"Market prices, which have marked time and came under no pressure to move in one direction or another since the beginning of the year, have entered the winter period in the same state."
The figures also suggest that fewer people are deciding to sell, with Barfoot signing up 1210 new listings in June compared with 1455 in May and 1570 in June last year.
That was the lowest number of new listings Barfoots have signed up in the month of June since 2014.
However inventory levels - the total number of homes available for sale through the agency - remain healthy.
At the end of June Barfoots had 4267 residential properties available for sale, down from 4568 in May but almost unchanged from the 4297 it had in June last year.
So buyers should still have plenty of choice.
"It is a market environment that is likely to remain constant to the start of spring," Peter Thompson said.
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58 Comments
See what Greg's done there. Got everyone arguing with the early morning article and then throw a curve ball at elevenses. Tricksey little Hobbitses.
However, Median price is still down another 10K in a month (so not what you'd call a safe bank account) and when the ban kicks on foreign money parkers, top end and overall average price is toast.
I've generally kept out of the forecasting malarkey but the headwinds just keep coming. The housing market hasn't capitulated in the face of the headwinds, so I can understand the commenters who keep cheering the markets resilience. I'm incredulous at the resilience.
For the housing market to not correct with all the factors now present requires a resilience not seen in any housing market anywhere else in the world, especially if the trade war shenanigans, economic slowdown and bank tightening continues.
Now I know many Kiwis do feel their market is utterly unique and will never correct because it *has* never corrected, and maybe they are right. Maybe Kiwis psychologically believe in the values of their houses so hard that nothing will ever convince them that they should let a house go for less than the value they have wedded themselves to psychologically, so they simply won't ever discount. But if nothing else changes, surely the market can't resist price depreciation much longer?
Obvs something may change, the trade war saga could evaporate, global growth could blossom, immigration could suddenly uptick, another quake could require a major spend... but as things currently stand? How can anyone still be bullish without actually just suffering some form of delusion?
Hi Ginganinja.
Hopefully I can explain the resilience of the market thus far.
I married a New Zealander some years ago and over the years, interaction with her family and herself have provided me with a number of essential survival tips.
1. She has always been right on everything and stubbornly held a position to the bitter end, even if she has in fact been proven wrong by facts. 'I don't care is a common theme here'
2. She loves to fight, and a lost cause Is more fun than any cause so she'll happily engage in proactive losing of an argument. If she has to argue the earth is flat and the moon is made of cheese, she will engage vociferously.
3. She would rather tell me to sod off than admit I was right.
4. She has a very poor sense of direction and regularly goes the wrong way, routes that can add hours to the journey. When questioned, that was just the way that she wanted to go?
These are a few of the factors that I believe are ingrained from birth in Kiwis and arrive as a combination of stubborn ancestors who made the journey here (both white and maori) - you'd have to be pretty single minded to want to make the trip in the first place.
The only place where people are similarly stubborn is Scotland (and definitely Yorkshire). - Other similar attributes surrounding money mean that you would not want to be a waiter in any of these areas.
It will take a while for reality to hit home here.
See it for yourself https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHN4I651vpI
DGZ ....WAAAAAAAAIT a minute!!!!!!! Is your obsession with RE just an extension of your epic crush on Linda Hill? Is this deep down all just some way to be closer to her? Maybe you hope she will notice your in depth appreciation of the Auckland property market and swipe right?
Nic Johnson,
I married a Kiwi. He is a bonafide genius, massive IQ and has a truly beautiful brain. He doesn't love to fight, he is not particularly stubborn, he has a great sense of direction, has no problem with admitting he's wrong and will never fight to the bitter end. He's quite conflict adverse and would prefer to have a civil discussion to resolve matters. A row between us is an extremely rare occurrence and usually resolved before the sun goes down. I adore him and never met a British man his equal.
I know a great deal about my husbands ancestry, because some of them were notable clergy, artists and architects. The family have kept incredible records, which he and I have taken up, as part of the family tradition.
I have diaries from his Kiwi ancestors who made that treacherous journey, they noted how many died during the trip and reading about that harrowing experience leaves me in awe of their bravery. My reading is that many of those early settlers came to NZ because life was so bad in the UK for many, that they risked their lives for the hope of something better. That's not stubbornness, that's either desperation, tenacity or both.
I haven't noted any more stubbornness in Kiwis than in Brits, although if I was going to make any kind of generalisation it would be that Kiwis are more trusting (maybe a tad naive sometimes), friendlier, less snobby, quicker to offer help and kindness and less critical, questioning and cynical than Brits. The less critical, questioning and cynical bit has upsides and downsides, the downside being that I think Kiwis get taken advantage of by their systems, companies, governments and professionals more. Maybe. I also think Kiwis are more culturally homogeneous than Brits, but that's mostly just a population size thing and recent influxes of immigrants will undoubtedly change that.
Kiwis have never had a serious housing correction here. So that might be a major factor as why they don't think one is likely to happen. That's not a Kiwi thing, that's a human thing. We all underestimate risk, especially as risk associated with something that has never actually happened before.
I think Kiwis put faith in things, invest their time, money and beliefs and are therefore disinclined to imagine something terrible happening to that which they have put faith in. And on the whole, because the history of NZ has been collaboration, unity, community and hard work, that faith has been built on something real and worth treasuring. Sadly I think that reality has deteriorated and in real threat. So now that same faith that helped build community and the tenacious Kiwi spirit, might be a weakness going forward, exposing people to risk.
This is only a segment of the Auckland market, The total REINZ numbers are more comprehensive.
However, the average graph shows that we are still making higher lows since July 17 ( the bottom of the market) ...
So Gerg can cheer as much as he likes and selectively and conveniently pick March 17 peak whenever it suits him( forgetting that so many things happened since then including the arrival of the CoLs).
But that does not change the fact that the market is resilient and is on a slow steady rise ... look at the YoY QV numbers in the main centres as an example !!
REINZ total sales figures ( average and median) because they gather every thing that was sold in Auckland.
Not sales index, not weeks on market, not auction numbers
Actual sales - will be out soon for June
However, where ever you look they are almost the same trend
Are the number of comments indicating that the Auckland market has bottomed. Barfoots annualised sales rolling value has been declining steadily and consistently since October 2015,peaking at 11.6 billion. Although presently 3 billion lower,their annualised sales value has now increased month on month for the past 3 months,after its nadir in February.
-New affordable homes gaining momentum
-Ban imminent including provisions against absentee residents
-Loss fencing
-Extension of the bright line test
-Chinese capital controls being maintained
-Money printing ending
-Sales volumes tanking
-Prices at best flat and worst decline
-Lots of noise about interest rates (but no real change there)
-Capital Gains tax very much on Tax Working Group radar
-Trade war starting (no happy ending...)
Reality starting to bite.
Over the next couple of years if Auckland prices revert to their long-term trend, it will be around $750k average and $600-650k median.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/13WdjVA-HwoHip5hwYxvGuzge3jo1-Lns/view?…
It is American In-depend-ants Day..
China is getting antsy too. In spike of what they used to Buy??.....in Awkland....things are not quite what they seem.
https://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=CNY&to=NZD&amount=1000000
When in debt up to yer eyeballs...any rate rise, any tax take, any petroleum rise, any more House Debt, anymore swapsies....would be stupid, would it not.
Hey guys, have a look at this...suits all ages and FREE ADMISSION - DGMs or spruikers you are all welcome!! Come on put on your best French clothes, colours, berets and join in an action-packed family fun day.
http://events.stuff.co.nz/the-press/2018/remuera-bastille-day-festival/…
Barfoot & Thompson are not working for the Seller / Vendor. They are working for the Purchaser / Buyer. They put fear into the Seller to make a quick sale under duress. They make the Seller feel that they have a problem??? Oh that well rehearsed phrase ... "the market says' .... come on, they don't even do research to justify the market in the area of the Seller???? I don't understand why people take Barfoot & Thompson word as the Bible???? Barfoot & Thompson are a business who report on there companies turnover and just like any other company they need to make a profit. Today there are many smaller Real Estate Company's who are not greedy for a quick sale and commission and who are just as good. Sellers do you own research and shop around for other Real Estate Agents.
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