Average residential property values move sideways over winter as the market hunkers down with Auckland experiencing a return to 'normal' market conditions

The days when the value of people homes increased every year appear to be drawing to a close, with average property values starting to decline in many areas, according to the latest Quotable Value figures.

According to QV, the average value of all residential properties throughout the country declined for the third consecutive month in July.

However the size of the decrease was small, with the national average dropping $5,059 to $673,797 in July from $678,856 in April. It remains 5.1% above where it was in July last year.

That suggests the trend is for more of a flattening in values than a serious decline, however it also marks an absence of capital gains.

A return to 'normal' market conditions

It is a similar story in Auckland, where July's average property value of $1,050,778 was down 0.1% from three months earlier, with falling average values over the same period in Rodney -1.1%, North Shore -0.7%, Waitakere -0.1% and Franklin -0.8%.

Going against the trend were Central Auckland +0.5%, Manukau +0.2% and Papakura +0.2%.

However the average residential property value in Auckland is still up 0.5% compared to July last year.

QV's Auckland senior consultant James Steele said Auckland was experiencing a return to "normal" market conditions with values remaining stable under depressed levels of activity.

"With less demand, sellers are adjusting expectations and are more open to negotiation in order to get their property sold," Steele said.

"In general, this has limited the value growth seen over the previous period and kept prices stable with some softening occurring in properties that have issues or are poorly maintained."

In other centres changes in property values have been more mixed.

In Hamilton the average residential property value was $558,615 in July, up 0.8% compared to July and up 3.3% compared to a year earlier.

In Tauranga the average value was down 0.2% compared to April but up 1.7% compared to a year earlier.

"The rate of [value] growth has dropped compared to this time last year," QV Tauranga consultant Steven Dunn said.

"We're seeing prices moderate, as many buyers consolidate after a period of sustained growth."

Wellington & Christchurch

In the Wellington Region the average value was $651,725 in July, up 1.5% on three months ago and up 7.4% for the year, with rising values evident in all parts of the region.

"Overall, Wellington is currently seeing stable values and it's now a much more balanced market after several years of strong growth," QV Wellington senior consultant David Cornford said.

In Christchurch the average value was $495,692 in July, up 0.5% over the last three months, but up just 0.1% on a year earlier.

"The Christchurch market remains steady, with values remaining relatively flat or increasing slightly," QV Christchurch property consultant Hamish Collins said.

"Overall market activity is subdued, with listings down and prospective buyers, particularly investors, keeping pretty quiet due to modest value growth," he said.

Dunedin has had one of the hottest markets in the country over winter, with July's average value of $411,669 up 1.8% over the last three months and up 10.1% over the last year.

However QV Dunedin property consultant Tim Gibson said value growth in many parts of the city had dropped recently after a sustained period of growth.

QV House Price Index July 2018
Territorial authority Average current value 12 month change% 3 month change %
Auckland Region  1,050,778 0.6% -0.1%
Wellington Region  651,725 7.4% 1.5%
Total New Zealand Nationwide 673,797 5.1% -0.7%
       
Far North 408,092 0.6% -5.0%
Whangarei 528,543 6.9% 3.2%
Kaipara 539,471 3.4% 2.8%
Auckland - Rodney 947,336 -0.2% -1.1%
Rodney - Hibiscus Coast 926,604 -0.1% -1.4%
Rodney - North 968,829 -0.3% -0.9%
Auckland - North Shore 1,224,301 1.8% -0.7%
North Shore - Coastal 1,399,765 1.4% -1.3%
North Shore - Onewa 971,037 2.0% 0.0%
North Shore - North Harbour 1,209,171 2.4% -0.4%
Auckland - Waitakere 824,055 0.6% -0.1%
Auckland - City 1,238,979 0.3% 0.5%
Auckland City - Central 1,070,104 -1.2% -1.5%
Auckland_City - East 1,570,660 1.6% 1.3%
Auckland City - South 1,104,286 -0.1% 1.2%
Auckland City - Islands 1,147,678 3.8% 0.5%
Auckland - Manukau 901,504 0.3% 0.2%
Manukau - East 1,152,975 -1.2% 0.0%
Manukau - Central 698,565 1.7% 0.1%
Manukau - North West 781,699 1.9% 0.4%
Auckland - Papakura 702,466 4.0% 0.2%
Auckland - Franklin 665,311 1.0% -0.8%
Thames Coromandel 736,604 3.5% 1.2%
Hauraki 408,817 3.2% 4.8%
Waikato 473,429 5.2% -1.0%
Matamata Piako 445,932 5.4% 2.5%
Hamilton 558,615 3.3% 0.8%
Hamilton - North East 709,263 4.0% 1.3%
Hamilton - Central & North West 512,416 1.7% -0.2%
Hamilton - South East 513,016 4.7% 1.9%
Hamilton - South West 488,901 1.6% -0.8%
Waipa 554,658 7.1% 3.4%
Otorohanga 276,214 -0.6% -11.0%
South Waikato 213,434 2.6% -6.1%
Waitomo 207,575 8.3% 9.5%
Taupo 481,229 8.1% 2.6%
Western BOP 629,627 1.9% -0.2%
Tauranga 702,850 1.7% -0.2%
Rotorua 428,063 7.3% 0.4%
Whakatane 431,957 7.0% 1.0%
Kawerau 201,367 11.1% 4.0%
Opotiki 265,490 -7.1% -16.1%
Gisborne 312,693 6.9% 0.8%
Wairoa N/A N/A N/A
Hastings 460,373 8.6% 0.2%
Napier 513,670 14.2% 2.7%
Central Hawkes Bay 324,646 13.4% 2.8%
New Plymouth 446,524 5.2% 0.4%
Stratford 271,281 15.0% 3.8%
South Taranaki 221,197 10.9% 0.2%
Ruapehu 192,731 18.5% 4.0%
Whanganui 254,889 11.2% 4.3%
Rangitikei 207,598 9.5% 2.9%
Manawatu 344,214 12.4% 2.5%
Palmerston North 394,966 9.9% 2.9%
Tararua 205,922 18.6% 7.1%
Horowhenua 320,966 13.7% 4.1%
Kapiti Coast 562,112 9.4% 0.9%
Porirua 564,541 9.9% 3.0%
Upper Hutt 489,021 8.9% 0.4%
Hutt 540,653 5.5% 0.6%
Wellington 775,711 7.1% 1.9%
Wellington - Central & South 773,346 6.9% 2.4%
Wellington - East 818,341 3.7% 0.6%
Wellington - North 703,964 9.4% 2.3%
Wellington - West 895,242 7.3% 1.4%
Masterton 350,019 12.9% 3.4%
Carterton 396,395 13.9% 2.2%
South Wairarapa 481,825 14.4% 0.8%
Tasman 573,760 7.5% 1.4%
Nelson 559,023 5.1% -0.7%
Marlborough 463,332 5.7% 1.2%
Kaikoura N/A N/A N/A
Buller 186,963 2.7% 4.3%
Grey 213,390 3.1% 0.5%
Westland 241,010 -3.1% -2.2%
Hurunui 381,368 2.4% -2.0%
Waimakariri 438,481 0.8% -0.7%
Christchurch 495,692 0.1% 0.5%
Christchurch - East 373,367 0.7% 1.1%
Christchurch - Hills 675,208 1.7% 1.9%
Christchurch - Central & North 584,471 0.0% 0.8%
Christchurch - Southwest 471,948 -0.6% -0.7%
Christchurch - Banks Peninsula 513,447 0.7% 0.0%
Selwyn 551,073 1.0% 0.2%
Ashburton 349,930 1.1% -0.7%
Timaru 358,718 2.3% 0.9%
MacKenzie 502,010 6.8% -1.8%
Waimate 245,191 11.7% 3.9%
Waitaki 303,970 7.1% -0.2%
Central Otago 496,616 9.0% 1.7%
Queenstown Lakes 1,168,728 7.0% 3.4%
Dunedin 411,669 10.1% 1.8%
Dunedin - Central & North 430,663 11.3% 2.8%
Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal 377,858 12.1% 2.5%
Dunedin - South 390,097 10.6% 0.9%
Dunedin - Taieri 425,549 8.1% 1.4%
Clutha 209,002 6.6% -2.0%
Southland 275,369 10.2% 0.7%
Gore 219,692 2.6% -4.0%
Invercargill 266,950 9.9% 0.9%
       
Main Urban Areas               784,958 4.2% -1.3%

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment or click on the "Register" link below a comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current Comment policy is here.

108 Comments

Bwahahahaha. All that needs saying really.

Agreed.
After increasing property prices for the past ten years (Auckland leveling out 18 months plus ago) that will be the reaction of many as we transition from one norm to another.

The next thing to watch out for is the consequential flow on to consumer spending and its impact on the wider economy. During periods of high house price inflation we all feel wealthier (yes it is all about perception) and consequently we tend to have a greater propensity in our spending; equally falling or stable house prices have a reverse effect.
Low interest rates as a result of US QE etc, led to a significant contribution to house price inflation, and in turn increased consumer spending resulting in a contributor to our "rock star economy" over the past decade. (Yes, circumstances meant National were blessed in their term of government.)
So keep an eye for those indicators over the next six months; consumer spending, vehicle purchases, overseas holidays etc., will all experience downward pressure (although government's Working for Families package will off set this trend in some areas).

Glideslope. Engines of speculations are off. Tony Alexander said early last year each cycle ends with Aucklanders overshooting in the regions and then getting burned. Regional dynamics are not Auckland.

I notice even the morning breakfast shows ( TV3) are 'panicking' about the property market, and running polls like " Is it a good time to buy a property now?". The answers are meaningless without a comparator, like "Compared to when?" The obvious ones being "Compared to Last Year? or more importantly "Compared to next years expectations?"

Auckland is slowly tipping over the edge, more to come

Auckland is still growing in population, vast numbers of houses being built, and new builds at city boundary cost at least 8-900K (20-25% of that going into the councils pocket). That sets a marginal price below which market can't fall, so there won't be a collapse in prices.

Also there is always a winter dip. Only people with a gun to their heads sell in winter, so I wouldn't read too much into the 3 month trend (much as I would like it to continue down).

That sets a marginal price below which market can't fall, so there won't be a collapse in prices.

You should go tell that to people in the US that lost everything in the GFC/Housing crisis, where houses in some areas fell to 30% below replacement cost. (And some investors did really well by recognizing that and buying and waiting)

They had a massive surplus of houses everywhere. We have a desperate shortage. But if you want to wait of a 30% drop, please go ahead.

The "desperate" shortage has been way overblown.

I didn't say house prices were going to drop, I just pointed out that "replacement cost" is not a lower bound for prices, regardless of what the spruikers want to try to insist. This market has been irrational on the upside, it can go just as irrational on the downside.

I agree with Olly/BigDaddy, stagnant house prices for teh next ten years, or until a shock causes the prices to reset to close to long term fundamentals.

If you look back you'll see that in the early 2010s Olly Newland was predicting hyper general inflation to follow QE. General inflation has actually been lower for longer than anticipated by economists.

And what has the price of last weeks fish got to do with tomorrows catch?

Houseworks, is this an attempt to undermine the credibility of a wealthy and highly respected property expert/financial advisor? Even Ollie admits 8/10 times he gets it right. If Ollies latest forecast of a ten year house price stagnation sinks your hopes then your score is already plummeting near zero.

Foyle

Your quote

'That sets a marginal price below which market can't fall, so there won't be a collapse in prices'.

Completely wrong. Those firms are either able to sell the product - competing against second hand houses where owners who bought years ago can make themselves cheaper to attract buyers... or they go bust if they cannot sell in time to pay the banks back, as we've seen today with Ebert's demise at the hands of its creditors.

The market always gets set by those that can afford to sell and if Doris and Dave have a ten year old house that they have paid the mortgage off on, they can always undercut the new builds if they need to get a buyer. Hence the change in the marginal price..

However my experience tells me that new builds generally fall the fastest and the hardest as developers have to sell to keep cash flows going and businesses operating.

Reckon labour costs for building are about to get a lot cheaper as failed developments throw skills out into the market to compete for work - a few will be out looking already this morning - which is sad, but they'll have mortgages to pay too.

Nic, you say "my experience tells me…" would you mind sharing what experience you have in the NZ housing market?
Thanks

..... less than you even expect

Houseworks

I know enough mate. Here's a property training seminar that you may find very useful for your property dealings. I have found it incredibly useful over the years.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=you%27ve+got+to+know+when+to+hold+e...

Best

Nic

Ha-ha-ha! Nice one Nic :)

RP

This lot really are clowns , but Kenny knows his stuff.

"very useful for your property dealings. I have found it incredibly useful over the years"

Does that make you a specuvestor, know when to hold em, know when to fold em, Nic?

It's strange that rhetoric-poppy likes your post eh considering he doesn't play Kenny's song

Evil

More than enough experience to know when to get off the train.

Property is so emotional isn't it? have you ever been to Casino and seen hoards of Chinese people running around frantically placing bets left right and centre, little faces turning red with anger when chips don't fall their way. Can you imagine if they were given credit to gamble with? What a disaster that could cause.

The markets the market and I think we're starting to see a few red faces.

Not sure where you get your analysis - but it doesnt add up. Firstly, I am unsure why you think 25% of cost is going to council. Secondly, land prices will fall (are falling) which brings down the cost of housing. That is why people build cheaper elsewhere. Interestingly, that of the 11,000 listings currently on trademe for Auckland property - 2,500 are for vacant sections/development sites.

It's really interesting reading the different media's spin on a -0.1% drop over a quarter.

I personally read it as flat. It's a price movement that would be caused by a bee farting from across the road. But each to their own spin I guess. Make sure you're reading the figures and not just the headlines.

Agreed. Also 'normal market conditions' is a bit of tongue in cheek and can be taken a number of ways - I'm guessing they mean in terms of growth. However, needing $100k more towards a deposit now than three years ago should perhaps be referred to as a 'new normal'.

up
10

Overseas Investment Amendement Bill in Parliment today.

If government is sincere it could be a law by next week or two.

Wait and watch how they try to delay further and dilute the law.

up
11

I hear what you're saying, sometimes I still get caught in the same mindset trap after 9 years of delaying, diluting and denying. It's hard to think a Government could make a concerted effort to try meet it's election promises.

up
10

Eleven months since they were voted. Understand that it has to pass through a process but if government intended could have been done at a much faster as everyone knows that if want the government can move the entire proces at Snail's pace, even now from the current stage.

This will be a true test of government intention being flagship promise of all group in government.

I am 100% against foreigners having an impact on our Property Market.

In saying that I would rather they follow a process and put a law into place that is well thought through rather that a slap happy, rip-sh*t & bust approach.

You'll find that the process might take 3-5 years to implement and before you know it, National has already taken the helm.

Wake up DGZ, you're dreaming again..

That's the whole thing, it needs to follow a process. You say "Understand that it has to pass through a process" but i don't think you do understand. We aren't talking about drawing up a recipe to make a chicken sandwich.

The Government needs to allow people to make submissions, they need to read these submissions and take things on board. If you click on the following link, scroll down and click on Submissions and Advice, you'll see there have been 324 submissions made on behalf of various interests (Bayleys, Bunnings, Larry Zhang, Tianyu Xu, ANZ Bank etc).

https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/bills-and-laws/bills-proposed-laws/docum...

Hahaha. That's not how Jacinda's "most open and transparent government ever" works. Waka jumping bill totally ignored all submissions and suggestions (all of which were anti), Thy lord Winston's will be done. Murder of oil and gas industry was done without any consultation. So many more examples over last 9 months.

This government is driven by purity of faith in their righteous ideology, not consultation and compromise with those that their decisions will affect.

I agree but we are not talking about that. We are talking about why it's taking so long for the Foreign Investment Bill to be passed, which is because the Government appears to be following the correct process.

Murder of Oil and Gas wasn't a legislative action, it was a cessation of the issuing of consents for NEW oil exploration permits. Current permits still apply.

I understand but you have to understand that the government can speed up the process or can delay the process as suits them with exactly the same arguments as yours besides hiding behind the committee.

Committee is must but can be misused to delay and manipulate - happens not only in NZ but world over.

You and me can argue but now the bill is at a stage where it should not take much time and government's intention will be out soon in public domain so wait and watch.

I'm waiting, and watching people on here squirming around like there's a shortage of hemorrhoids cream...all because the bill hasn't been passed yet.

Well this is your perception and many will have their perception about your.....

No point in arguing if the Labour brings the ban in true spirit on time - result will be for all to see in time to come.

So just chill and wait n watch.

Well spotted, its in committee, Speaker steps down and they go into a huddle, Im guessing without the press or
public.

Where did you hear or read it?

Is it possible to get an HPI graph for Auckland? Trends are more important than data points.

It's in the report on the reinz website

Interesting that the latest REINZ stratified HIP still shows Auckland house prices growing at 0.9% per year.

For the running median interest.co.nz has a good set of graphs here https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-price-reinz

Unless you look down the three month column, where everything in Auckland has a negative sign, except Papakura at +0.2%. 1 Month column is all over the place, some +, some -, a bit too short term to show any trend.

Look at the graph, Rodney slightly trending up, Auckland city also up (very marginally), but Waitakere, Manukau, North shore all still below their mid 2016 peaks. the y/y gains are off a low point this time last year, but really it has been mostly flat for the last two years.

3 months a trend does not make.

Auckland as a whole is flat as a pancake. I think the bottom of the market will be next year. Recovery in 2021/22.

what we are seeing now is the end of credit growth, without the many factors all working together to push prices up leverage is not as available so less taking of as much credit as possible has disappeared, banks are also tightening on whom they give credit to, no longer just get as many numbers as you can.
and a lot has to do with a number of cycles all finishing together, it will be interesting over the next year to see if this government holds course or panics and flings open the doors for a quick sugar fix

The most important aspect of this that the "it is just a flattening off" crowd don't understand. It is the credit growth that drives the New Zealand economy, even a flattening results in NO growth in credit.

uhoh

Loan Market Auckland's Bruce Patten said business from first-home buyers was also up among his network of 1100 mortgage advisers.

"Our figures are up almost 150 per cent on the same time last year in terms of volumes," he said.

"That is partly due to people going and seeking advice because they've had problems as the banks have started tightening up lending."

That's exactly it.
Auckland is expensive and If you have been able to leverage your overseas holiday, private school fees, new kitchen, upgrade your car etc on the extra $100'000 a year (for example) your house is 'earning' for you in DGZ then the lack of capital gains has a huge impact. Your debt becomes real - you have to service it with actual income. Are people going to keep utilising their mortgage to service their lifestyle in those circumstances or pull their belt in?

Happy August 2018 everyone. Very pleased to see Auckland_City - East valued at 1,570,660 (still +1.6% yoy). More importantly no foreign buyers ban in July.

...I'm fast running out of RIPE cherries to pick.

Masterton up 12.9% YoY, 3.4% 3 month. It's a great time to be alive.

Very happy for you on the CG Nzdan ^^

Hi DGZ,

Indeed Auckland has proved to be resilient against all the negative talk.

Just as I've been saying for the last 15 months, Auckland house prices will fluctuate within a narrow band for the foreseeable future.

Houses in the inner-city suburbs will continue to do well. Location is a major factor in Auckland - people will pay a premium to avoid the transport/traffic hassles.

TTP

An extraordinarily accurate forecast from an interview with Olly Newland early last year.
The bureaucrats, and chart fillers, are a disgrace. It’s taken them at least 18 months, for them to come to the same conclusion .
They should be sacked immediately and work on minimum wages as toilet cleaners for the next 3 years as a salutary lesson for gross stupidity.
Read Olly’s forecast recorded 28th March 2017 on Interest.co here:

“Veteran property investor and commentator Olly Newland believes the Auckland residential property market could have hit a plateau that could last for 10 years.
“I don’t think the bubble has burst. I would say it’s leaking and has become a little bit soft around the edges”, said Newland, who is a director of property management and advisory company Newland Burling & Co.
“The Auckland market is choppy, it’s nowhere near as buoyant as it was a year or two ago,” he said.
“There’s still money to be made and people can still sell their places, but I think we’ve probably reached the pinnacle at the moment.
“I think we’re going into a long flat period which could last for 10 years.”
Provided we don’t suffer some massive unforeseen economic shock like another international financial crisis, he said.
Newland also believes that provincial property markets, which have remained buoyant while the Auckland market has flattened, will eventually follow Auckland’s lead.
"There’s what I call a grunt factor, where prices reach a point where it doesn’t matter how cheap interest rates are, the rental [income] just doesn’t cover it,” he said.
“I think many areas are reaching that grunt factor and people are just going into it for the capital gain.
If that capital gain starts to slow down, where it has here and there, then the people who have been buying will start to think twice about whether they should carry on.”
Link:
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/86739/only-newland-says-only-invest-...

Olly, nothing like a bit of free advertising for your own firm! I think the chances of navigating the next 10 years without a Global crisis are now somewhat slim. It's a scenario that should be in every forecast. I certainly agree with your views as a best scenario outcome.

I think Olly's forecasts have been pretty good. In my eyes he has a lot more credibility than some other posers on this website.
However I agree with you Poppy that it's a high probability there will be some kind of economic crisis in the next 10 years.
However, property will probably still rise a bit in the next 10 years too.
I reckon flat for 10 years - overall - is a good call. But that would be a significant drop in real terms.

BigDaddy is not Olly. Please get that right.
He is actually Bob Jones cunningly disguised as a professional author and some time property investor who constantly ask Olly for advice on what to do next.

pull the other. I have run your text through my language bot, you come as a 100% match to Olly.

I remember the post and thought it was on the nail. Not so sure about the flat for 10 years though...it would be an aberration from the norm.

I am pretty sure show reams of ppl with the same opinion. The problem with oily's opinion is he's ignoring some fundimentals, ie assuming growth for ever problem is expecting 10 years of stagnation is a rosy scenario that is very unlikley to be seen.

Of course the Q is then after 10 years of stagnation what happens then? Why keep your $s in an asset that shows no capital gains for a decade? yet some risk? If it was me I'd ask why not take your money out of a long term stagnant asset that has considerable risk attached and put it somewhere else (if there is anywhere else).

Exactly. As most of the driver has been cap gains and not income, seems implausible to me that the specuvestors won't start exiting at an increasing rate. If the very reason to speculate has evaporated...why hang around for 10 years with nothing to show at the end of it?

Steven you ask if there is somewhere else to make a profit. In a rapidly changing world there must be opportunities but of course the problem is to pick them. Furthermore, diverting cash to avenues that might provide better gains to NZ is surely better than sinking money into a currently stagnating housing market.

Your prediction will be proved correct when and if we have had 10 years of flat property prices.

And of course you don't remind us of the many times you have been wrong.

From REINZ - Auckland's average asking price increasing for the first time in four months to $959,067.
Wellington's average asking price jumped 1.5 per cent compared to a month earlier to hit $628,899.

up
10

Asking is not getting.

well said from a property veteran

100 bps from calamity

I have been wrong at times, who hasn't, but my batting average is 8 out of 10.

I usually agree with your commentry BD but you're assuming the this run up has been underpinned by sound economic fundimentals. Rather than a once in a life time combination of free QE money/money laundering and piggybacking of the back of those two drivers. That ride has stopped and a reversion to some sort of mean has to happen. And the mean is a LONG way down! Also, a falling market rewards those who offload first. So this idea that the 40% investors will calmly hold on the their falling assest, is in my opinion unlikely. But I too am often wrong. Lets see what happens in spring..

Another construction firm in trouble https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=120...

I think we've been here before back in 2008. History is repeating itself.

Eberts have been around for a long time, at least 20 years from my memory, and most probably longer than that. Given they've weathered the worst it's surprising to see them go under suddenly. Although what all builders tell me is that everything is tight and turning a profit is a challenge.

With Eberts failing and Fletcher Construction being unable to compete there are going to be more problems to come.

This is a good start and it's just the beginning. See how much more you'd pray for the housing market and the economy to crash before people start realising the sheer scale of it.

Unfortunately this time around we don’t exactly have the sharpest tools in the shed to navigate the country through a down turn.

I totally do not agree. The main reason National didnt collapse the economy is it didnt go full retard and cut Govn spending like the UK did. In other words pretty classic Keynesian economics which is basically the left wing economics model. So now we have some actual left wingers in place who agree with Keynesian economics far more and hence we have a better chnace of weathering this. All else being equal of course, ie not allowing for how bad this good be as National has left our economy overheated, yet weak and fragile.

True, instead we have replaced what we had with the some blunt tools !!

Then you are in good company.

In July 2008 we had oil prices up to 6% of GDP (USA) and that drove the US into recession. Today instead of $148US a barrel we have $70US a barrel ergo this isnt that similar. Of course we have out of control, too big to fail US banks gambling even more heavily, we have EU banks looking fragile in the extreme and we have assets hugely over-heated everywhere. On top of that Chian basically got us out of this 2008/9 mess but its economy is looking dodgy this time around, bound to go well.

This is a good start but we really need to extend this trend over years and years. Once that pattern is established then we might see investment into more innovative sectors.

What trend are you referring to?

Wasn't clear about that sorry. I meant the sideways/slightly-decreasing prices year-on-year. If it was established that this wasn't just short term then investment would shift accordingly.

amazing how this mirrors what we are seeing and hearing here in a lot of commentary, possibly just 6 months ahead of us
Is this our future playing out in Australia.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_1HdiaVg7Q&feature=youtu.be

Ironic that despite double digit falls in many Sydney suburbs, Australian spruikers are still spinning the same old line "due to limited supply, prices will stay high" Martin North expresses in no uncertain terms, this is false and price falls are just getting started.

What happens in Australia will certainly be mirrored here.

What Auckland is going through isn't like Sydney or Melbourne but very much like Brisbane in the mid 2000s, where it had massive gain due to influx of buyers and nothing else. That trend ran out of steam in the mid 2010. After that house prices in Brisbane went backward for few years and since had very modest growth like 3-4% annually.

Sounds a bit like Eco-Bird doesnt it. He could learn a thing or 2 from that video

Hi R-P,

Again you fall into the trap of assuming that what happens overseas (in this case Australia) will also happen in NZ. The reality is that Australia's circumstances are very different from NZ!

As the old expression goes, "American-fried Kentucky theory need not work elsewhere."

TTP

TTP, whos in a trap? I challenge you to provide fact packed evidence as to why its different ;) Please feel free to provide links as I like to be spoon fed - I'm hungry for your facts!

Hi R-P,

At your age, you shouldn't need spoon-feeding.

Go look at the publications of any reputable economic (and/or social) commentator.

Many of the key economic indicators for Australia/NZ do not track closely at all. Historical data sets demonstrate that very clearly.

TTP

Despite all Greg's effort to make the opening of this article as soothing as possible for the crash theory believers and butter the DGM up first - he could not hide the facts in the body of the article ... good work Greg.

Below are the CLEAR symptoms of a falling Market: ( don't see any negative signs though)

Territorial authority Average current value 12 month change%
Auckland Region 1,050,778 0.6% :)
Wellington Region 651,725 7.4% :)
Total New Zealand 673,797 5.1% :)

"" However the average residential property value in Auckland is still up 0.5% compared to July last year. ( well make that 0.6% as in the above)

QV's Auckland senior consultant James Steele said Auckland was experiencing a return to "normal" market conditions with values remaining stable under depressed levels of activity.

"With less demand, sellers are adjusting expectations and are more open to negotiation in order to get their property sold," Steele said. ( which happens everyday)

"In general, this has limited the value growth seen over the previous period and kept prices stable with some softening occurring in properties that have issues or are poorly maintained.""

So, yep told you so DGMs... and yep Akl is stable ( mind you a couple years on +0.6% over 3 years of 60% is not that bad !! ) , Wlg is on fire, and on average NZ house prices have gone up by over 5%....

Still want to wait for Father Christmas?..., Sure !! . just don't cry when he misses you and keeps you out in the Cold again, because you have been bad stubborn boys !!

And , while I have your kind attention, read this one, and go figure:

" Ebert Construction is the latest building firm to come under strain from escalating building costs, with Fletcher Building the highest profile when it booked almost $1 billion of losses over two years from its Buildings + Interiors division as fixed-cost agreements meant it couldn't pass on the rapid increase in wages and building product prices. "

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/fcd4f678/ebert-construction-tipped-in...

Unemployment has improved from a year ago so all is good - yay for Coalition of Super People

A little misleading as usual - trying to use aggregate statistics where more granular statistics show different results depending on the area.

Eco Bird, annual Auckland median change -0.7%, again you're caught trying to spruik a stale narrative??? QV average is less accurate than the Realestate.co.nz - median. You will recall I asked late last June about what measurement you believe reflects true market movement? you answered "REINZ - median"

https://www.reinz.co.nz/residential-property-data-gallery

QV also say "the days when the value of people homes increased every year appear to be drawing to a close" I notice you omitted to acknowledge that in your comment ;-)

Enjoy yourself RP , keep a towel on the side, it can become handy for wet dreams and wiping out tears ...

I am looking forward to REINZ median for July 18 too... lol

Oh , now this ....

New Zealand farmer confidence has fallen to the lowest level in six years amid uncertainty over government policies.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/2c607cf0/nz-farmer-confidence-falls-t...

I'm not surprised.
Those poor farmers losing their subsidies.
It's a travesty.

leftie doom and gloom merchants, the lot of them

Only two camps around here; gloom and doom merchants or Trumpy party.. pick one!

You miss the point. If anyone dares say they believe property prices will fall they are labelled a DGM. Here a bunch of farmers are saying they believe conditions will worsen but the same ideology that labels people housing DGMs says serious problems are coming (to everything except housing, particularly those in National voting areas).

It is strange how people seem to lack internal consistency - house prices can only go up yet the government is destroying the economy - as if they think the two aren't linked in some way.

I bet they can't even spell cognitive dissonance

What is even stranger is that some people believe that some people believe that prices always go up. I doubt anyone believes prices always go up.

Nothing surprises me these day's. I have a Chromecast which makes it all to easy to watch content on YouTube much of which is no better( and much of it worse) than any of the news from the MSM news channels. Everyone just wants to peddle their view of the "truth" - much of which doesn't stand much scrutiny. The truth no longer exists - only narratives to be peddled (and ignored).

I see the fall in the Australian property market is gaining momentum. I expect a 20% fall over there-Sydney has already fallen 5%.
I think NZ prices will probably drift back a bit but not as sharply as Aus. The Aussie banks are going to be more cautious.

Virtually no capital gains in Brisbane the last decade. We sold our property March 2008, for $556K (Cleveland). We noted it was on the market earlier this year sold for $572K. So no gain of note after holding for 10 years.

please elaborate mja on the type of house it is..

Was in Amelia Place, Cleveland, very nice street. Brick and tile, full site, about 200sqm house, 4bdrm, ensuite, walk in wardrobe, double garage, no problems. We sold as we knew something bad was coming all the proceeds went into NZ govt bonds. Sold within a week, we were so relieved it sold. The agent bought around an unconditional contract, my wife and I remember me saying to him I felt something has changed, and he said "funny you should say that, the phones stopped ringing a week ago". The change was palpable, almost like a meerkat sensing a predator. I don't have that fear factor now, though have sold 2/3 properties as I think market has topped (I still hold three rentals, to hedge my bets and for base retirement income).

Well someone got an absolute bargain then didn’t they!
There has been a helluva lot of capital gains on Brisbane property in the last 10 years.
Something not right here, and if I could buy Brisbane houses for basically the same price as 10 years ago I would be in boots and all, despite their horrible capital gains tax!

TM2 comes in late in the day to scoop the village idiot prize, once again.

There has been a helluva lot of capital gains on Brisbane property in the last 10 years.

Funny that the Queensland govt doesn't think so...
http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/subjects/economy/prices/tables/house-price-in...

Median Brisbane house price when we sold in early 2008 was 498K, I see it is 535K as at June 2018. So likely not a bargain, just market value.

Major banks lead losses on ASX as house prices tumble
https://www.smh.com.au/business/major-banks-lead-losses-on-asx-as-house-...
The S&P/ASX 200 index closed 4.5 points or 0.1 per cent lower, at 6275.7 after CoreLogic data revealed that house prices had experienced their biggest annual fall since 2012.