Sales rate of 26% at Barfoot & Thompson's latest auctions

Property

The auction sales rate was unusually low for properties in central Auckland suburbs such as Remuera, Mt Eden and Glendowie

6th Nov 18, 10:06am by Greg Ninness

Sales were achieved on a quarter of the properties marketed for sale by auction by Barfoot & Thompson last week.

The agency had marketed 174 properties for sale by auction and achieved sales on 46 of them, giving an overall clearance rate of 26%.

At the larger auctions where at least 10 properties were offered, the sales rates ranged from 18% for the on site auctions, to 36% at the Shortland St auction on October 30, where most of the properties offered were from central/western fringe suburbs such as New Windsor, Green Bay, Blockhouse Bay, Mt Albert, Kelston and Lynfield.

The sales rate was 29% at the big Manukau auction and 32% on the North Shore.

Unusually, the sales rate was down at the Shortland St auction on October 31, where most of the homes offered were in central suburbs such as Kohimarama, One Tree Hill, Glendowie, Remuera, and Mt Eden.

Auctions of properties in those suburbs usually have some of the highest clearance rates but at last week's auction the sales rate was just 21%.

Details of the individual properties offered are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

**Barfoot & Thompson Auction Results 30 October - 4 November 2018**
Date	Venue	Sold	Not Sold	Total	% Sold
29 Oct - 4 Nov	On site	3	14	17	18%
30 October	Manukau	11	27	38	29%
30 October	B&T Shortland St, CBD.	4	7	11	36%
31 October	B&T Shortland St, CBD.	7	26	33	21%
31 October	Whangarei	1	1	2	50%
31 October	Pukekohe	2	5	7	29%
1 November	North Shore	9	19	28	32%
1 November	B&T Shortland St, CBD.	3	12	15	20%
2 November	B&T Shortland St, CBD.	6	17	23	26%
Total	All venues	46	128	174	26%

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103 Comments

by Free Popcorn | 6th Nov 18, 10:21am 1541452860

26% clearance rate. 20% increase in listings in the last month. LOL. Who would of guessed ???

Popcorn anyone ???

40% clearance rates in Australia has not been seen since the GFC. Oh dear , what is our clearance rates ?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KiNkqpP5Bs

by Mrs The Point | 6th Nov 18, 10:16am 1541452561

I think there will be a couple of rosters not crowing so loudly in here today. Pass some popcorn please.

by Pragmatist | 6th Nov 18, 10:36am 1541453815

Methinks they may hide in the henhouse and scratch for bugs rather than come out and play by the fire.

by Nic Johnson | 6th Nov 18, 12:56pm 1541462176

Free Popcorn. It would appear that it might be time to face the music?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hat1Hc9SNwE - (I can't live if living is without you, Mariah Carey)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo - (The Gambler, Kenny Rogers)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lWJXDG2i0A - (Freefallin - Tom Petty)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XmwiwQjU8E - (I'm Goin' Down - Mary J Blige)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prErnop1eiM - (Lonely this Christmas - Elvis Presley)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPrf-svWUAQ - (Andrea Bocelli I Sarah Brightman - Time to say goodbye)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIdIqbv7SPo (Ain't no sunshine when she's gone – Bill Withers)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zLfCnGVeL4 (Sound of Silence, Simon and Garfunkel)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nCqRmx3Dnw - ( This is a story all about how my life got flipped turned upside down. Fresh Prince )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL6eS5wPSbE (Hippy Hippy Shakes - The Beatles)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPf0YbXqDm0 (Coz Up town funk don't give it to you. Bruno Mars/Mark Ronson)

Anthem for 2019 courtesy of Masher

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XB383WkXcqE (Status Quo – Prices are down)

by Free Popcorn | 6th Nov 18, 3:23pm 1541470981

Nic Johnson - good to have you back. Great music mix, but I was sadly disappointed you did not choose this song for all those property speculators ( sheep ) who have not already sold up awhile ago like the smart money does. But please sit back and enjoy, I can see the smirk on your face already !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86URGgqONvA

by Nic Johnson | 6th Nov 18, 4:20pm 1541474440

FP.
Bubble to Bust. A little illustration of how this pans out next.
An agent puts a house on the market and 5 buyers compete for it. It sells after a bit of competition for $800,000.
Agent then puts the next similar house on market for $825,000. 4 buyers remain but 1 is already priced out of the market, so 3 buyers compete and 1 buys it for $825,000. 2 buyers remain.
Agent knows that he has 2 buyers who missed the last two houses so he puts the next similar house on for $850,000 . 2 buyers compete and 1 buys it for $860,000 (his wife said he would be in the spare bedroom if he didn't). The extra debt was worth it!
Agent then puts a fourth similar house on the market for $875,000. 1 buyer left but he has already missed out on three houses and can't let it happen again or his wife will leave him. He pays the $875,000 despite there being no competition at all. His previous experience has programmed his response to loss so he sets the top of the market..
Agent then has 5 sellers of similar houses come to him all now wanting a magical piece of the $875,000 premium that seller number 4 got. They know the market has topped and actually two have just been made redundant in cost saving exercises by their companies.
Except the trouble is that the only buyer left is the chap who bowed out on house number 1 when the bidding got to $800,000. He now just sits and watches to see which seller is ready to meet his less than $800,000 budget. He knows he has limited competition so waits as the sellers drop below $800,000, then below $750,000. He eventually buys for $680,000 because in a falling market that's all the credit the banks would give him and the seller knows that there are now 20 similar houses that he could buy instead.

by Laminar | 6th Nov 18, 6:20pm 1541481622

In your example the market rose 10% and then fell 22%?
The funny thing is even the buyer who bought at 680 is screwed as this market goes 1 step forward and then 2 steps back.

by gingerninja | 6th Nov 18, 7:01pm 1541484060

I was just concerned about how dysfunctional all these marriages appear to be.

The menfolk appear to be solely responsible for all the bidding/buying pressure, at the same time as being emotionally/sexually blackmailed by their wives.

This housing market stuff is way more involved than I realised, ;-)

by Nic Johnson | 6th Nov 18, 7:17pm 1541485031

I had a feeling that that slightly 'tongue in cheek' poste would possibly grab the attention of my favourite Wellington based commentator. My apologies GN, I am trying to find nice easy stories to demonstrate how quickly things can slide backwards on the turn!

by gingerninja | 6th Nov 18, 8:09pm 1541488154

Ha. I was just concerned at the strain the housing market is putting on NZ marriages ;-)

by Nic Johnson | 6th Nov 18, 8:56pm 1541490976

MELBOURNE CUP DAY TODAY.. Where was your money Gingerninja?

"And it's 'MELBOURNE' out in front, with 'A CASE OF TOO MUCH DEBT' following short behind.
'WERE ON THE ROCKS' is on the inside track, dragging along 'WE'VE OVERHEATED,'
'OOP's YOU DIDN'T WANNA' is leading the chasing pack with 'CAN-BEAR-A' falling over.
'AVOID THE CREDIT BUBBLE' stumbles and loses his rider 'Aunty Westpac'.
'50 PERCENT INTEREST ONLY LOAN BOOK' is making a move with 'NOW'S THE TIME TO BUY' and 'DON'T BE STUPID.'
'PERTH IS STILL BEHIND' falling away and never likely to catch up, but here comes 'SYDNEY's SPIRAL' 'ONCE A LOVELY PLACE TO LIVE' 'NOW WE'RE ROOTED' and 'STRUTH MATE'

"And who are these two riding up on the outside, I can't see, yes it is, the old mare from Auckland 'NEW ZEALAND IS DIFFRUNT' with '26% CLEARANCE'
'WHERE IS JOHNNY FOREIGNER' has fallen away now, with 'BARFOOT 'N' MOUTH' sliding back too.
It's MELBOURN OUT IN FRONT' with 'STRUTH MATE', followed by , 'HERE COMES SYDNEY's SPIRAL' 'NOW'S THE TIME TO BUY' and 'DON'T BE STUPID'"
He's fallen, yes 'CAPITAL GAINS' is out of the race, I hope his jockey is okay?... No, ouch he just got hit by 'REDUCED BANK LENDING'" and "WHERE IS JOHNNY FOREIGNER' 'I'm not sure if he's getting up from that?

"There's a whole bunch now in the middle but looking like the they don't have the legs for this, who can I see, yes 'WHAT DID TONY TELL US,' 'ALWAYS GO UP.' 'TREND IS YOUR FRIEND' who else is in there?, Looks like it's 'ASHLEYS CHURCH'S ON FIRE', yes it is! and 'SHOULD HAVE HAD DTI'S' and 'CREDIT BUBBLE' all herding together.

"What a race ladies and gents, a race to the bottom, good luck to all you wonderful punters as this plays out."

by Nic Johnson | 6th Nov 18, 10:58pm 1541498327

Hi GN. I should add

Marriages are always far better too when one partner doesn't admonish (there's a first for that word on interest.co.nz) the silly decision of the other partner to mortgage the family up to the eyeballs in a housing/credit bubble.

Case in point, you carried on renting earlier this year, when your landlord decided to sell and rather than rushing into a purchase you could have done but you knew would have been a daft decision, you decided to rent again.. I'm certain that you still have a very happy relationship and as one of our smartest commentators your example should be followed by those who find themselves needing to move because their 2 year landlords (heavily geared) want out!

A very good decision, which you knew anyway and I hope you don't mind me highlighting to others who will face a similar situation in the coming months as the crash unwinds.

Nic

by gingerninja | 7th Nov 18, 8:11am 1541531474

Morning Nic! I don't follow sport at all, apologies. When people talk about sports... this is what I hear;

https://imgur.com/gallery/gUgkpTx

As for marriage and the housing market... many a true word said in jest though eh? I'm sure the housing affordability crisis has actually put a lot of marriages under strain. Not to mention all the childhoods lacking the stability of a family home.

As for our decision not to buy this year... honestly, that wasn't just about the housing market. Whilst its true that we didn't want to buy in a hot or peaked market, there were loads of other factors, our finances are more complicated than the average Kiwi household.

by Nic Johnson | 6th Nov 18, 10:41pm 1541497311

Laminar

That's just what happens at the end of a credit based housing bubble.

by NorthernLights | 6th Nov 18, 5:05pm 1541477140

Suggest you check this out
Ray Dalio Of Bridgewater the biggest hedge fund in the world gives his advice on life 1 & economy 2

1= https://youtu.be/B9XGUpQZY38

2=. https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0

This for those that don’t know = https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/26/ray-dalio-made-50-billion-for-his-clien…

by NorthernLights | 6th Nov 18, 3:52pm 1541472736

Where’s DubleGZ ?? & Zach ??
Even TTP??
C’mon Guys
I need a laugh on the plane

by PropertyPrices2Fall | 6th Nov 18, 8:46pm 1541490393

Did you look out the windows.. they were hanging on each wing.. with ttp on the tail...

They decided to escape before the housing market burst in their face

by Retired-Poppy | 6th Nov 18, 6:13pm 1541481185

Not surprised by this result or that Agent TTP has vanished! How does he explain his agencies deteriorating performance? DGM's to blame? FBB is hardly a fizzer now is it?

by CJ099 | 6th Nov 18, 8:35pm 1541489712

Don't forget Eco Bird (National Birdy). She swore blind that the Auckland market had bottomed out over a year ago! NEVER TRUST RE's!

by Nic Johnson | 6th Nov 18, 11:20pm 1541499621

Hi CJ099
Ecobird, may have been a play on the Oozlum bird! Pumping and dumping NZ property before disappearing into his or her's own arse!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioaJ_jGsops

by Mrs The Point | 6th Nov 18, 10:12am 1541452359

Say it ain't so! How could this happen? After yesterdays story, what does this mean?

by mealsonmeals | 6th Nov 18, 11:45am 1541457948

The Barfoot communications department clearly had these results. Yesterday, they were trying to get ahead of it with a puff piece. Its all marketing.

by Shock | 6th Nov 18, 10:13am 1541452428

There's nothing unusual about the suburbs that had the most foreign buyers having lower sales a week after the Overseas Investment Amendment Act takes effect is there?

by Mrs The Point | 6th Nov 18, 10:20am 1541452856

Hmmm, who was it that was just yesterday declaring that the FBB was a fizzer? Looks like touch paper has been lit. Stand well clear, you don't want to get burned.

by theglc | 6th Nov 18, 11:29am 1541456974

Of course that was TTP (with his 50 years of studying the housing market)

Will he provide some more entertainment today?

by sharetrader | 6th Nov 18, 11:55am 1541458501

give him his dues he called it yesterday

by tothepoint | Mon, 05/11/2018 - 16:38

"Exactly! Novembers results will be dismal, won`t be much over 20%."

TTP

by CJ099 | 6th Nov 18, 8:36pm 1541489818

Perhaps he's trying to turn a new leaf like the Trump voters.

by Adam B NZ | 6th Nov 18, 10:17am 1541452627

Reality is kicking in...

by K.W. | 6th Nov 18, 3:38pm 1541471892

Not yet, its just the FBB taking effect. But it will. Oh, but it will!

by bw | 6th Nov 18, 10:19am 1541452751

A new tactic/development?
A property scheduled "For Auction!" next Friday had a "Pre-Auction Notification" day last Friday. Today the property has been "Withdrawn". It's been on the market for yonks, so the questions are:
(1) What's this new-fangled Pre-Auction Notification all about?
(2) If it to test the water for the coming auction did this particular property sell 'out of the blue', or more importantly,
(3) If it didn't sell, is this a way of keeping what will be failed auctions off the stats sheet next Friday?

by Laminar | 6th Nov 18, 11:53am 1541458424

Im not 100% sure but a it may be the notification that a pre-auction offer has been made.

by K.W. | 6th Nov 18, 3:41pm 1541472071

Normally if there is a pre-auction offer the auction date is brought forward, and the offer price becomes the reserve.

by Laminar | 6th Nov 18, 6:22pm 1541481767

Yes but the term pre-auction notification is new to me. I suppose it could be in reference to the notification that goes out after a pre-auction offer brings an auction forward but i dont know.

by taimaiakka0 | 6th Nov 18, 10:25am 1541453150

This were the area where foreign buyers were active.

If it continues will be a disaster.

As I have been saying Wait and Watch.

by PropertyPrices2Fall | 6th Nov 18, 10:39am 1541453983

Hi wait n watch, I've been watching n waiting, seems to be paying off :)

by Fritz | 6th Nov 18, 10:33am 1541453614

That's a pathetic result.
I suspect the foreign buyer ban may have more impact than some thought.

by PropertyPrices2Fall | 6th Nov 18, 10:40am 1541454010

As I said

by user123 | 6th Nov 18, 10:51am 1541454661

Most definitely. Now if the Govt will actually do something about the ridiculous level of immigration we could really see some carnage in the property market in 2019.

by Pragmatist | 6th Nov 18, 11:02am 1541455320

Which is exactly why they won't. A full blown property crash is not a good thing, it'd kick the country into a recession.

Letting prices fall at something under 5% a year for a few years is a good idea. Those that bought to occupy should be able to keep up with mortgage payments and shouldn't end up underwater, those debt stackers with interest only mortgages will be up the creek without a paddle, and forced to sell, clearing some of the dreck out of the market and getting more people into their own homes.

by Masher | 6th Nov 18, 11:46am 1541457982

Clouds are a brewing though aren't they?

I think lackluster Xmas spending will be a kick in the guts to NZ retail and local business to an extent we underestimate. More purchases will be online through overseas businesses, but the bigger factor is people are no longer using their house as an ATM.

Snowball effect me thinks for 2019.

by Carlos67 | 6th Nov 18, 1:31pm 1541464268

You must have missed the article that new cars sales for October broke all the records. Kind of goes against what you would expect the current trend to be based on the business confidence. Hard to explain the reason other than the gulf between the haves and the have nots is getting wider.

by Pragmatist | 6th Nov 18, 1:52pm 1541465577

~2500 rentals cars had quite a lot to do with it.

by NorthernLights | 6th Nov 18, 4:37pm 1541475478

Too late the foreigners have had years & years to buy up Auckland homes
Is the government doing anything about the vacant “investment” houses ?
They brought in a tax in Vancouver on these houses bought to sit on without occupants
Do not worry the next wave of migrants will be all the family members piggy backing on your new residents
Sadly they usually all live in the same house
Sadly the National Party never considered the full consequences of their open doors “policy” Well it was more like “I don’t recall” a.k.a. John Key open doors
Yet many here will still vote for this nutty Nat party !

by CJ099 | 6th Nov 18, 9:22pm 1541492532

That's next on Labour list. Haven't you heard, the recent census results were meant to be released this month but have been delayed to next March. Have to leave some gap between the foreign buyer ban being introduced to them next bring in the 'Empty Homes Tax' which we really need.

Yes I know you're going to gripe about that one NL but TOUGH!

Empty Homes Tax could save tens of millions
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1805/S00059/empty-homes-tax-could-save…

Vacant Homes Are A Global Epidemic, And Paris Is Fighting It With A 60% Tax
https://betterdwelling.com/vacant-homes-global-epidemic-paris-fighting-…

by Pragmatist | 6th Nov 18, 10:41am 1541454073

Seems to be a few listings in the auction results which are sold, but no price given. Are the agencies not disclosing the sale price on some auctions now? Why?

by Masher | 6th Nov 18, 11:50am 1541458208

Well based on last weeks results 4/5 properties that went to auction either didn't sell, or sold below QV, and the auction success rate has dropped 20% from last week.

I think you know what I'm getting at...

by rastus1 | 6th Nov 18, 10:42am 1541454148

Suggesting it's the fbb is jumping to conclusions. Just raise the head a little and glance over the horizon....this was always going to happen and in fact has been happening for several months. Soon the masses who rely on msm (and not int.co) are going to rush for the exits...a stampede is looming.

by Pragmatist | 6th Nov 18, 10:54am 1541454856

It been slow for a while, but IF the results stay down like this then it just took a significant step down. Not silly to think that a sudden sharp decline in clearance rates that happens the exact same time the FBB kicks in is related.

by Masher | 6th Nov 18, 11:55am 1541458558

I think one thing people underestimate is how much Auckland property is owned by young couples where their parents are either guarantors on the loan, have loaned the deposit to the kids, or the parents have a chunk of equity as part of their retirement portfolio.

There will be some interesting table chat this Xmas...

by Fritz | 6th Nov 18, 1:44pm 1541465094

Yes hard to attribute. Probably a few factors

by GenerationXY | 6th Nov 18, 10:58am 1541455133

AAANNNNDD We've breached 13000 on TradeMe..

by tothepoint - d… | 6th Nov 18, 10:59am 1541455153

Won't be putting my money on the FBB...... It look likes going the same dismal way as KiwiBuild.

At that point, more confidence is likely to return to the housing market.

TTP

by BigDaddy | 6th Nov 18, 11:00am 1541455226

The Foreign Investor ban has little to do with anything. They only made up a small percentage of the whole.
The real problem is there is no "Housing Crisis" at all. If there was, every auction would be a sell out .
There are enough houses at all prices for everyone. Trademe has 1000's of affordable houses for sale at this very moment. Why is that? The real problem is that people are scared about borrowing huge sums of mortgage money what ever the interest rates may be. There is also the perception that renting is much cheaper than owning (which it is by far) and prices are wobbly and could fall. Then there is all the talk about a capital gains tax on everything which doesn't help either. These are the reasons why auctions results are bad and getting worse. People are just nervous about the future and when people are nervous they tend to do nothing.

by bw | 6th Nov 18, 11:13am 1541456034

"when people are nervous they tend to do nothing."
Quite right.
And in that reaction are the seeds of a panic
The Herd always sees the cliff edge too late..But first, mortgage rates are going to 'zero'. ( pick your favourite % rate that is as low as you can imagine, and then lower it some more)

by theglc | 6th Nov 18, 11:37am 1541457442

If they hit zero what will that do to our currency? 50c to the US$???

by Pragmatist | 6th Nov 18, 11:13am 1541456017

Only a small percentage overall, but a large percentage of the Auckland market, particularly in certain areas. And they were some of the few that thought Auckland prices weren't stupid and were willing to pay current asking prices.

by rastus1 | 6th Nov 18, 12:01pm 1541458913

wise words big d. Add to that credit contraction.

by Nic Johnson | 6th Nov 18, 1:14pm 1541463282

Hi BD

I disagree with the comment that the FB has had little impact. The marginal buyer has a huge impact and capital that flows in to one high end sale. (Notice there are very few of those at the moment), facilitates a number of subsequent transactions across the entire market as buyers trade up and down around Auckland and the regions.

What I will agree with you on though is that you are right about a housing shortage being incorrect, there are thousands of empty homes, flats and new builds that will have no buyers at the prices previously paid on the speculation of the land There is a housing crisis, but it's not a supply issue, not of property anyway, the crisis we are about to face is a credit crisis, which is forming like storm clouds on the horizon because the banks have let the market leverage itself up against the 'marginal buyer'

Where it ends is anyone's guess, 20% correction seems light to me given the excesses, 60% maybe a bit dramatic, so I'll stump for somewhere towards the heavier end of price adjustments between 40-50% between now and 2022/2023. (Which I have called before as the bottom of this impending crash)

by Laminar | 6th Nov 18, 6:29pm 1541482170

The stats are clear, affordability stopped house price gains. There is a housing shortage, the stats are clear on that as well. People simply cant afford the type of house that they want to live in.

by Chairman Moa | 6th Nov 18, 11:14am 1541456050

Spin it away people!

by theglc | 6th Nov 18, 11:26am 1541456766

Quote from yesterday...

""Spring arrived and the market came alive," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said."

Im calling BS on this one

by Chairman Moa | 6th Nov 18, 11:42am 1541457773

Still got 6 years and 2 months for the price to be doubled again... early days!

by Hardly | 6th Nov 18, 5:16pm 1541477793

There is not a chance in hell of property prices doubling in six years.

by PropertyPrices2Fall | 6th Nov 18, 12:10pm 1541459440

Knock knock. .. bhsl... expat. .... zs.... Carlos. . Are you guys there? ????

Nooooòo we have ditched the site. . You guys were right all along. .

by mfd | 6th Nov 18, 1:27pm 1541464054

Wait for the actual prices to start falling before crowing too loud. I wouldn't be surprised if that time comes soon, but this kind of data is far from knockout.

by Carlos67 | 6th Nov 18, 1:47pm 1541465274

Nooooooo we are waiting for you to talk the market down 20%, we are still waiting..............and waiting...........still waiting. Ooops too late bought my house 15 years ago, paid it off now I'm out of the market so who cares. If I was on this site 15 years ago and listened to all the DGM's on here I would have been kicking myself in the ass now. Nothing has changed other than the whole world could end sooner than I though possible, I'm revising it from 2050 to something sooner. As for the other guys MIA, they are probably too busy drinking champagne or are away on holiday, no one seriously rich would waste their time on this site, there are better things to do.

by Mrs The Point | 6th Nov 18, 5:51pm 1541479899

I guess that explains why you are here Carlos

by Ex Expat | 6th Nov 18, 10:42pm 1541497343

I’m still around. Not posting much as there’s not much to say. Actually, I just checked my bank app and the Core Logic estimate is further down, as at 4/11/18 it’s now at 97.4% of the 2017 CV. Last week it was 97.8%. Each percent is worth $25,000. If it goes to 36% of CV then I would have no capital gain since purchase in 2009. Given I have no debt and cash in the bank, I figure I’ll be last man standing at that point just like Logan Campbell was in the big recession of the 1890s.

by Houseworks | 6th Nov 18, 11:31pm 1541500279

CG 1.4, not bad, not bad at all. If you had listened to the seriously disillusioned commenters and not bought at all not only would you have missed out on the gain, you would be paying possibly double the rent. Therefore much poorer. But of course the DGMs are right and you are wrong! Not!

by Nic Johnson | 6th Nov 18, 11:43pm 1541501021

Ex Expat

Thank you.

I appreciate your very honest transparency.. It's just a metric and not at all indicative of a sales price which could be better or worse but you've shared that it looks worse, and I think that we probably both share a few very similar values. What's the point in us being okay with a massive house price, if our kids are facing a climbing wall to have any freedom to have children of their own.... If my house halves in value, do I care? Not at all, It will raise the chance that my own kids can afford to give me the pleasure of grandchildren, who I can invest an enormous amount of time in educating and allow them to be as big a pain in the arse to their parents (my kids) as they were to me.. Revenge is a meal best served cold Ex Expat?

Keep posting your corelogic results! And apologies for my previous derision of your contributions.

Nic

by Zachary Smith | 6th Nov 18, 11:15pm 1541499305

I'm still around too but like Ex Expat there is not much to say. More interested in the US mid-terms at the moment. Fingers crossed that the Americans will confirm what a great President Trump is.

by CJ099 | 7th Nov 18, 8:32am 1541532742

Zachary you do realize that it's Trump that has caused this and many other global property bubbles to burst with the tariff pressure he put on China.
So much for him being a property king as he claims.

by Wrong John | 6th Nov 18, 12:31pm 1541460660

It's not a good start for November is it(?) especially with FBB in place from 23 October. Mmm! Remember, a quarter of Aucklanders are what I wou;ld call 'FB's' & many are also NZ residents so their uncle's money wont show up very easily. They'll do everything they can to get their money out of China & everything they can to buy property outside of it. Mr Xi is doing everything he can to stop the outflow, but he is 60 million people & a trillion dollars too late. We're just a part of the new imperialist story. Blimey, if they think the Brits were bad, just wait until you see what's coming.

by Zachary Smith | 6th Nov 18, 12:51pm 1541461913

It looks like sellers have adjusted their price expectations upwards somewhat. We're still in search of equilibrium.

by Pragmatist | 6th Nov 18, 1:18pm 1541463499

Thats a bit silly, adjusting your price expectation further away from what the market is willing to pay.

by PropertyPrices2Fall | 6th Nov 18, 1:57pm 1541465843

It's usually what speculators do. ..

by CJ099 | 6th Nov 18, 9:27pm 1541492871

Yes they've adjusted their offer prices to allow you to buy more bake beans Zachary. :P

by WestieAJ | 6th Nov 18, 12:54pm 1541462071

The government is safe as houses until late 2020. They will continue to let house prices fall until early 2020. Then the war on property price inflation will be declared over. By then the government will have political control of the reserve bank. LVRs will be relaxed to 95%. The flood of new immigrants for bogus degree courses and guaranteed residence will begin. Prices will run up 10 - 15% to election day and everyone will get a nice equity bump to make them feel all warm and fuzzy when they go into the voting booth.

by Chairman Moa | 6th Nov 18, 12:58pm 1541462328

You can almost put a tail on this and called it a possum!

by Nic Johnson | 6th Nov 18, 3:26pm 1541471204

Hardly

13,857 and climbing rapidly from 13795 yesterday and 13,440 (2 weeks ago today - when the end of the one house purchase one vote for National policy was rescinded).

(Edit)

by Free Popcorn | 6th Nov 18, 3:41pm 1541472104

Nic - where are you getting those numbers from? I have just started a little note taking myself as I am watching this GF2 start to unfold. Im using trade me for Auckland and Hawkes Bay. Last Friday H.B was 481, today it is 494. Auckland last Friday was 12,964, today it is 13,030 LOL.

by Nic Johnson | 6th Nov 18, 3:51pm 1541472676

Hi FP

realestate.co.nz. It's just a running total of aggregate of all land and house offerings in Auckland. I had been running the count using Trademe up until the end of August but when Trademe's national listings went above 32,000 their count stopped working. It now just says 'over 32,000 houses for sale' in New Zealand. Somewhat convenient and several months on they have decided that it isn't worth fixing now that National totals are up over 36,000 on realestate.co.nz.

Trademe is pretty good for individual cities but no good for the national count!

Wellington 'City' Listings have risen from 522 on the date of the FBB to 590 today (Trademe) a rise of 12.8% in 2 weeks.

by Hardly | 6th Nov 18, 4:26pm 1541474774

1200 to go until we crack the big one. I still think it will happen after Christmas.

These auction numbers are abysmal. If this is sustained in future weeks then some sellers will need to drop their prices.

It must be hard to get a sale when buyers have 14,000 houses to choose from with more added every day. It is hard to create that property ladder urgency.

by Nic Johnson | 6th Nov 18, 4:47pm 1541476063

Hi Hardly

Having seen this all before, what we are starting to witness is buyer 'inertia.' To begin you see loads of houses asking the same daft high prices (where we are at present), then one seller (who needs to sell for whatever reason) re-prices themselves lower and captures one of the few buyers prepared to catch the falling knife. That however sets a new expectation of what every other buyer will pay for anything else.

It starts slowly but gets really interesting when you start seeing 4 bed houses that can't sell re-price to offer more 'bang for the buck' and position themselves alongside the 3 bed homes.

Things to remember. Around 60% of the housing stock is mortgage free so lots of people can still afford to trade even if prices are lower. 92% of the mortgaged households are only responsible for 60% of the mortgage debt, many of these will still be able to trade at reducing prices and many will make excellent trades for far less money. The 8% that carry 40% of the mortgage debt may struggle and anyone who bought from 2013-2018 (call it 80,000 transactions a year - so 400,000 homes may find that they are worth less than they paid), however those that have good equity will still find that the differentials narrow considerably for their next 'trade up' as the 'cash falls' will be far greater at the upper ends of the market. Which is quite ironic as that is where all the 'buy to debt' financing 'equity' has come from to fund the bubble in the first place.

Oh and let's not forget all the houses that the banks get stuck with when owners skip the country and the building boom drops off a cliff edge. Untraceable former citizens who skip to all parts of the world, leaving the house, debt and reducing demand all in one hit.

by Averageman | 6th Nov 18, 8:09pm 1541488160

Negative leverage. Specuvestors load up on pepto pills. Capitals gains are always speculative unless the cash is in the bank in with no mortgage.

by alittle | 6th Nov 18, 1:20pm 1541463621

"UNUSALLY LOW" may be the norm for sometimes to come.

Is Labour correct that foreign buyer data is much higher than provided under National or is National correct and ban on foreign buyer will have no effect on property market.

Time will tell.

by PocketAces | 6th Nov 18, 2:32pm 1541467973

Looks like it is telling

by theglc | 6th Nov 18, 3:16pm 1541470576

Well this is the thing

For years John Key told us that foreign buyers were insignificant and had little to no impact on the NZ housing market...... and now you have Judith Collins declaring the FBB will destroy the NZ property market

well National..... make ya mind up ....... What is it ???????

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2018/06/govt-s-foreign-buyer-ba…

I think we all know that Judith would sell her own children to get into bed with the chinese

by sharetrader | 6th Nov 18, 3:55pm 1541472922

the same JK that sold his house to an overseas owner quick smart

by PocketAces | 6th Nov 18, 2:31pm 1541467906

Yesterday it was a rooster, today it's a feather duster

by theglc | 6th Nov 18, 3:17pm 1541470622

Classic! Comment of the day IMO

by K.W. | 6th Nov 18, 3:39pm 1541471971

And from the pebble dropped into the middle of the market, so shall the ripples spread out ....

by Tui12 | 6th Nov 18, 3:50pm 1541472619

Where is King Carlos67 and TTP? I need a laugh this morning after dealing with that weather

by sharetrader | 6th Nov 18, 4:06pm 1541473561

Sydney's housing market downturn could end up being the longest on record
wont happen in auckland as we are different, we have high well resourced immigration, plenty of cashed up overseas buyers, lack of buildings, plenty of bank credit

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/sydney-s-housing-market-dow…

by Hardly | 6th Nov 18, 4:39pm 1541475579

In Australia they are complaining about 40% auction results compare that with 26%.

by Nic Johnson | 6th Nov 18, 9:06pm 1541491570

48%

by Nic Johnson | 6th Nov 18, 4:33pm 1541475189

Have I ever told you about Bill's property journey? 'There and back again' a cautionary tale about when hobbits take on too much leverage.

'Bill bought a 2 bed 'hobbithole' for $250k he put $50k down and took a mortgage of $200k at the beginning of the cycle.
4 years later Bill's flat was worth £300k so he decided to move on up and take the 100K he now had in equity (mortgage was interest only) and use it to buy a 3 bed shed for $400K with a 300K mortgage (25% equity).
4 more years on and Bill's shed had somehow risen to be worth 500K (he was still earning the same money as before plus 2% per annum rises) but he now had 200K equity. Bill traded up and bought a house for 800K with a 600K mortgage. All was good in the world, he had a great house and didn't care that he would never pay the loan back in his lifetime..... The banks felt secure too, they'd got a 25% buffer.

Then the market changed... Bill's house went down to 700K (not a lot) but his equity position was now 100K, back to where he was when he owned his apartment 8 years before..... Then Bill started getting shitty with the whole situation and people kept talking the market down and he had this bloody great debt over his head. He never has any cash to go out, wife was miserable too and then Bill made the mistake of shagging a colleague from work..... Bill had to go to the market at a terrible time, but life has to change, there were very few buyers so eventually he took 650k offer - He finally withdraws his 50K equity, (where he started the adventure) but can't start again because his wife gets that in the settlement. Bill is back to zero.

Equity is a dangerous game to play if you keep magnifying your exposure. What we will see here is just a re-run of what happened in the UK in the 2000's. 6 and 7 times income mortgages just aren't sustainable for a normal life to the led.

by Chairman Moa | 6th Nov 18, 4:54pm 1541476489

But in Auckland, had Bill waited for 7+ years, his initial "hobbithole" would be doubled to 500k, making his total equity of 300K. Even with a divorce settlement of 50% he still got 150K in his hot little hand!

by CJ099 | 6th Nov 18, 9:33pm 1541493225

Perhaps he should have followed John and got 20 million, a Knighthood and an attempt to change our flag so he could more sell off our county more effectively to foreign 'investors'.

by Averageman | 6th Nov 18, 9:02pm 1541491373

Can the bulls hear the robotic noise yet, "hazard warning, pull up...pull up...pull up"

by PropertyPrices2Fall | 6th Nov 18, 9:10pm 1541491826

They have gone into hibernation, may wake after 9 years

by stuart786786 | 6th Nov 18, 9:42pm 1541493743

Property listed in sunnyhills end of september for 1.575 million is now under negotiation - Have removed the asking price and will be lucky to get 1.1 or 1.2 million

https://touch.trademe.co.nz/property/listing/view/1783232489

Is this the future of property market for some years in Auckland.

by kane02 | 7th Nov 18, 8:58am 1541534285

I normally stay away from forums discussing house prices. However... a clearance rate of 26% is abysmal. This must be the top of the cycle. Prices can only go one way. This is reinforced by rental yields going sideways.