The highest sales rate was for properties that were auctioned on site, with almost half changing hands

Barfoot & Thompson achieved sales on just over a quarter of the properties it marketed for sale by auction last week.

The real estate agency, which is the largest in the Auckland region, marketed 151 properties for sale by auction and achieved sales on 39 of them, giving an overall sales rate of 26%.

The highest sales rate was for properties auctioned on site, with 19 residential properties auctioned on site and sales achieved on almost half of them.

Of the other major auctions where at least 10 properties were offered, the sales rates ranged from 7% at the Shortland Street auction on 9 November, where most of the properties offered were from west Auckland suburbs such as Massey, Ranui, West Harbour, Te Atatu and Henderson, and just one of the 15 properties was sold, to 36% at the Shortland St auction on 8 November, where most of the properties offered were from central or fringe suburbs such as Ellerslie, Onehunga, Blockhouse Bay, Remuera, Epsom and Royal Oak.

Prices of the properties that sold ranged from $650,000 for a two bedroom town house at Westgate, to $2.425 million for a three bedroom house on a large section at Mangawhai Heads.

Details of all the properties offered and the prices and rating valuations of most of those that sold are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

See the table below for a summary of the individual auctions.

Barfoot & Thompson Auction Results 5-11 November 2018
Date Venue Sold Not Sold Total % Sold
5-11 November On site 9 10 19 47%
6 November Manukau 8 20 28 29%
6 November Shortland St, CBD. 2 9 11 18%
7 November Shortland St, CBD. 6 22 28 21%
7 November Pukekohe 2 5 7 29%
8 November North Shore 7 23 30 23%
8 November Kerikeri 0 2 2 -
8 November Shortland St, CBD. 4 7 11 36%
9 November Shortland St, CBD. 1 14 15 7%
Total All venues 39 112 151 26%

 

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86 Comments

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25

Hmmm, so foreign buyers were only 3%... (c) Tui.

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17

lucky JK got in before it came in effect

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19

I do wonder if results like this will dent the confidence of our resident spruikers? Yeah, Yeah, Nah.

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14

You would think so. I have, until recent, been almost impressed by the bulls ability to ignore the signals from other areas and remain, well...bullish. Of late their blindness to external factors that will impact the dot in the South Pacific we all call home, is just irritating.

Financial crap is coming. Its been swept under the rug of QE since the GFC, but has continued to expand. Is NZ is special? Are we are immune to global finance? Do we set the tone for financial activity in the pacific. No, no and ...no.

Totally agree, I have also been impressed at how well their blinkers work. Though I have seen little of substance in their arguments as to why housing prices will remain elevated. Just some mumblings about graphs, demographics and under supply.

Hi Mrs The Point,

It's not just about demographics and housing under-supply - albeit they are important factors.

Have you considered the strong showing of economic growth and the labour market?

Low/falling unemployment and wage growth also happen to be of major significance to housing!

Now tell me who's blinkered?!

TTP

I remember a few years ago Motu did a paper on the impact of labour demand on house prices..
They actually concluded the opposite to what you claim:
"Low/falling unemployment and wage growth also happen to be of major significance to housing!".

Interesting, huh.

Thanks for the feedback, Nymad. I find that curious/interesting.

Certainly, I do respect the work of Motu economic consultancy. It's world-class.

Nonetheless, if I had a mortgage (or paid rent) I'd feel much more comfortable being employed (than unemployed).

Similarly, any increase in my wage would be more helpful to my accommodation circumstances/aspirations than sitting on a stagnant wage!

Let's face it, it's harder to get a house mortgage if you happen to be unemployed - or on a low/static income.

In that sense, I'd anticipate labour market activity to impact on housing market activity (and, of course, the converse would also be expected).

TTP

don't let facts get in the way of your folktales

Nymad, Any chance u can point me to that motu paper... ?
My natural assumption ( commonsense ) is that wage growth would be a +ve influence on house prices..?? ie..wages rising at 3-4% /yr is meaningful
Also employment levels...which might imply a growing local economy...or not..

Is this the paper.? http://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/07_10.pdf

If so...this is part of what they say...
"We uncover a paradox between employment and house prices.
Nationally, house prices are very responsive to employment shocks: a 1%
employment shock causes house prices to be 6% higher in the long run, as may be expected with an upward sloping housing supply curve. However, there is very little adjustment to house prices at the regional level, despite substantial in-migration to the region in response to the employment shock."

I have to say...that this paradox does not make much sense.??
I've had a quick skim read...and I'm not very impressed...
They say that migration is a major adjustment response to employment shocks at both a national and regional level.
To truely know the impact of this migration , on house prices ,I would assume one would need to know the supply/demand balance of houses in a region..
If a region had an oversupply of houses before an employment shock, the impact on house prices might be limited.
If a region had a shortage of houses before an employment shock, one might expect a more dramatic impact on house prices.

Motus' study does not enquire into its own concluding paradox.... Common sense suggests they should have..???

OR...am I the idiot...?

Roelof,
Yea, that's the one.

Those national figures are terrible. They can't be leaned on at all - just look at those error bands as a result of the VAR setup.

The methodology they use is a bit complex to outline here but generally what you would expect is there to be a substantial wage response to an employment demand shock (although the case in most economies, not so in NZ). The lack of this is likely the culprit for suppressed house price response.

I think you have hit the nail on the head re the supply of housing as a requirement in the model. However, whether such data is available is the question. We only get census data twice a decade (if that) which isn't suitable for this methodology - the data needs to be contemporaneous in such an endogenous model.

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14

That's my boy TTP! Go you little battler!

As I've said on the other thread, TTP and Yvil: big hat no cattle.

Not at all looking forward to see them swim when the tide goes out.

They have enjoyed swimming with each other

They might be wearing bright fluro colour swimsuit but then sharks are colour blinded!

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10

Whens theres 6 months of stock on the market and we're getting such dismal clearance rates I sometimes wonder whether it stands for "Taking the P___".

If we are getting such dismal sales figures during what is perceived to be a housing shortage either:

a) The housing shortage is a myth, or
b) People either can't afford or don't want to pay the asking price of the ever appreciating wonder asset.

Whatever the case, point B isn't solved by selling at a higher price. Its only worth what people are willing to pay for it.

The banks latest mortgage offerings may buy some time, but it still looks and smells like a turd to me.

Should I ask you this time next year what the turd tastes like?

Note that there have been plenty of auction clearance rates of 26% (or less) over the last couple of years.

TTP

Is that it? Surely you have better copy and pastes than that?

Ouch! Agent TTP gets a smack these days.

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11

I've looked back over the last 18 months and I can't find back to back weeks of under 30% clearance. (last week was also 26%).

Can you find some examples? Would love to compare then, to now.

Hi mealsonmeals,

Quick and easy solution for you is to go to Specsavers......

TTP

Like we didn't know you were doing jobs on the side, Agent TTP.

That's lame. .

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11

Just a month ago you were crowing about how much noticeably higher the clearance rates were compared to last year!

Just a few days ago you declared the FBB a fizzer

Seems your 50 years of studying the property market may have proved ............. pointless!!!!!

it's hard to break the habit of looking backwards for 50 years

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13

Are they really foreign when they can buy a joy ride in parliament for a $100k?

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19

Had attended Raywhite Bucklands Beach auction yesterday for a friend who wants to sell the house and has decided to wait for next few years (As he can and not in a hurry) . Had 16 or 17 properties listed and was there for an hour in which 6 properties were offered - of which in 1 property had one bid and no further and the rest 6 had no bidder.

All would have gone 10% to 15% below RV under the hammer (If had keen buyers yesterday) but now buyers who may have been interested will go for a kill and will not be surprised if get 20% to 30% below RV if not now in near future (There will always be exception) as buyers have dried up and is not yet a month since the introduction of FBB. Also RV in some of the properties is ridiculously high - one two bedroom in Sunnyhills is having a RV of One Million and now in that area may easily get 3 Bedroom town house between 800s (23A Luton Avenue sold for $850000 and was near around 200mt house with two internal garage – Had a RV of One Million – excellent area ) and 3 bedroom unit in 700s. So a Vendor of 2 bedroom unit which has an RV of One million is bound to expect 850 or 800 but in this market may be hard (As money Laundering if not over is hard in NZ now)
: https://homes.co.nz/app/listings/18ca9cc1-5adb-45b1-8762-fe8731fa25da

Another Townhouse has a RV of 1.125 Million and that property was sold in July 2014 for $685000 and just after 8 months was sold again for $900000 (wow made a cool $200000 in 7 to 8 months) and now will be hard for the vendor to sell as buyers having a budget of million plus will get good choice now and in near future
: https://homes.co.nz/app/listings/4f3ab9d5-f519-441d-a333-20493abc2e97

Another property with a CV of 1.425 had a asking of 1.575 Million but now asking has been changed to negotiation (I assume will go much less than RV and much less the earlier expectation of 1.575 million) : https://homes.co.nz/app/address/auckland/sunnyhills/11-hedge-row/q85Y7

Market is changing and the full affect of it will know by early next year as many speculators who have bought property specially in 2015 Onwards and do not have holding capacity are finding it tough.

It up will be interesting to know if Ray White auction at halfmoon bay did manage to sell any property and if yes how many.

As I always say

Wait and Watch (some even mentioned me to change my name :)

Party has just begun.

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23

So much for that burst of spring energy into the markets that Peter Thompson was going on about in the media. Auction clearance rates are getting worse!

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15

Harcourts CEO resigned yesterday.

Resigned, not retired.

Bloodstains on the back of the shirt from where he was prodded towards the door or not?

Heard from someone at B&T recently that Barfoots don't allow vendor bids, while most of their competitors do. I found that mildly interesting.

Vendor bids just sound so unethical.

Imagine winning a Trademe auction for a car, $2000. You go to pick up the car with 20 red ones in an envelope and the person selling it goes $2500 take it or leave it.

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22

Now you can see why the banks are cutting their interest rates in a desperate efffort to stimulate the market.
It won't work.
The so called spring rush is for those trying to get out of the door.
.

Assets of all kinds - property; gold; art; shares etc are all likely to get sold off. Who'd want to carry a weighted risk into this Christmas season, of all recent seasons?! ( Brexit; Fed; US politics; Saudi oil etc etc etc)
And as a result, The System will be awash with liquidity, looking for a home in bonds ( interest rates)
So we'll get lower asset prices and lower % rates. Sound counterintuitive, but there we go....

Gold stands to do well if we are heading into a global recession.

You're a sucker if you let Project Fear and fake news from the American left make you bearish on the economy. When it comes to America, I'm a raging bull.

With the Feds shrinking he balance sheet by $600 billion and treasury needing to borrow $1.2 trillion to fund the deficit this year ..this points to interest hikes ... so good luck with lower interest rates.

They are not trying to stimulate the market, but compete for an ever decreasing pool of buyers

Always good to hear from BigDaddy. An astute investor who can see the writing on the wall.

Interesting that the table states 15 for sale on 9th, there were definitely more on the screen on the day. .

Fantastic results to one and all

Say your name, say your name.

My pleasure; )

Auckland listings now at 14,227. Nationally it's 37,756 on Realestate.co.nz

773 more and I'm in the money..... I wonder if 'Hardly' is getting anxious yet?

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10

Specuvestors can finally here the warning noise thats been signaling for some time....pull up...pull up...

Not meaning to nitpick or anything, but wasn't the wager on Trademe listings in particular or am I mis-remembering?

Hi Nic,

I'd sooner make money from property - than betting!

TTP (-;

Ok first of all I want to say ‘Wow’. I thought the under 30% figure from last week was a one off but here we are again. Just remember the aussies are getting stressed by results in the 40s but according to bulls 26% is normal. Everything is FINE!

Nic I was worried last week and things surged. I’m interested to see if we get another this week. It seems most of the listings happen Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. I’d out you at 2/3 odds to win now.

It wasn't that many years ago when 90% of houses were listed at a price. Are RE's injecting that much FOMO into sellers ? I cant see any other reason to go to auction currently.
We are half the sell through rate that the aussies are, and they are crapping themselves over their 50% clearance rates.

A reminder to everyone here that "Doom and Gloom" means Auckland (1.5 million people) becoming cheaper than Melbourne (5 million people). Truly a doomsday scenario for the financially illiterate specuvestor.

1.7m actually.

Such a metropolis

My sincerest apologies.

You are both wrong, 1.6 mil (1,628,900 according to June 2018 Stat NZ)

Would you believe I was rounding to the nearest half million?

I'll be sure to write ~1.5 * 10^6 next time.

It's FONGO time, ladies and gentlemen.

Some good examples of FONGO currently;

17a Buckley Road, Epsom - CV of $2.15m On the market since July with several campaigns, finally sold for $1.655m (25% discount to CV).
74 Wairiki Road, Mt Eden - CV of $1.85m, Passed in at Auction, initially priced at $1.799mio but since dropped to $1.699mio (minimum discount to CV of 8% on that price).

I am sure there are lots of example of prices being dropped as vendor's start to worry...FONGO will only get worse in the next 4 weeks prior to Christmas (even with 3.99% debt). Who knows what happens in the New Year???

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10

Anyone who want to sell should do it now with whatever lose as afterwards will be blood bath.

CATGI

Can't afford to get in

Bring in empty house tax 60% to ease housing supply shortage ;)

How about getting rid of all the red tape and extortion that comes with building houses?

Or cutting our mass migration?

The problem is too much government, not the opposite.

Absolutely, it took us 16 weeks and several thousands of dollars to get a permit to build a carport in Auckland. Now in Brisbane, I did a 250K extension, got a permit in 10 days and 12 weeks to complete the job!

You don't read about many council overseas junkets to go and see how they can speed up property development/improvement do you?

I did my stint at Auckland CC for 3 years (before the merge). I lost count on the number of people on 100K plus salary doing sweet FA

Glorified beneficiaries.

Hmm, I wonder if there's an opening...

Brain teaser for our robotic economist driven forecasters: Auckland prices flat for 2 years. Supply up. Interest rates down. Immigration up. SALES? Yep, you guessed it: down. Could this be connected to 40% of Auckland sales being bought up by "investors"? And these investors, about 25% of them do not have to identify their whereabouts and OBB ban just kicked in....And company buyers fo RE still do not have to identify themselves.

Also, another teaser: how can sales of property in Rodney jump 35% in the 850. -1.2m bracket, in the first 8 months of 2018 compared to 2017. WHERE does this money come from if not speculative flow? Then, that exact category suddenly shrinks in October by 13%, whilst rising in Auckland by 28%.

Maybe its same reason that sales in Auckland can drop 25% in a year and rise same in a year, when all those supposed "predictor" factors I mentioned at the start of this article , did not alter by that ratio in same period. Very suspicious. Sorry to upset vision of moms and pops selling and buying all residential.

Why did Auckland sales peak in 2003-4? Nothing to do with China joining the WTO was it? By the way, sales in Auckland fell 76% 2004 - 08. Market in sales terms is HIGHLY cyclical and that cycle has nothing to do with interest rates or wages

Prices drop after 4 years sales falls and stagnation (26 year analysis in Auckland), after peak year (2015) So next year.....Both will drop, a lot

Yeah the faster it went up the faster it will fall - Once it Starts.

Has started and will get momentum by next year.

Hi Stuart,

That's what people here were saying 2-3 years ago.

What's new?

TTP

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12

What's new?

China, I suspect, and the complete disconnection of Auckland property from local incomes.

Too early to be definitive, however. We'll see either way, I guess.

This fall has resistance only because of High RV by Auckland council but even that is breaking now from 10% to 15% below RV to 20$ to 30% below RV.

Anyone who has speculated and have no holding power should get out fast - book lose now but if can hold for next 5 years plus than hold.

Hi alittle,

A far better plan is to hang in. Economy is strong and there's nothing to fear - unless you're deeply pessimistic.

Selling in Auckland is bird-brain. It's too hard to get back in (as most people are well aware).

TTP

A far better plan is to hold on tight. Economy is mediorce and there's nothing to fear - unless you're deeply realistic about the housing market..

Fixed.

Hold yes as who want to sell in lose but defenitely not the right time to buy but wait as this is not a one off fall but will continue for sometime to come.

So seat and enjoy !

What would happen if foreign investors start losing confidence in housing markets continuously going up?

In Australia they are calling it FONGO. Sellers have FONGO... Fear OF Not Getting Out.

Give some time and you will see FONGO in NZ.

Foreigners were only 3% - Data promoted and supported by National and it supporters.

Agent TTP will struggle with this and will remain in damage control mode for some time to come. What more can I say other than this result is entirely as I expected.

Also as predicted, the marginal buyer has done a runner, not only here, but in Australia. As Chinese buyers were already pulling back, the Foreign Buyers Ban has just closed the door (Contrary to Agent TTP's premature assertions it was a fizzer).

With mortgage rates are now at 70 year lows, I'd say, prepare for a one in 80 year event. Pay down that debt. If a global crisis event is somehow averted, at least you paid down your debt - right?

Agents might be able to sell this suckers market to some first time buyers, but they can't fool the thousands of anxious vendors. The odds are increasingly stacking for big falls.

Hi Poppy-Crusader,

REINZ November report will be out soon.......

Brace yourself.

TTP

Make the most of it.. its the last report that has sales from before the Foreign buyers ban. The next one will be the first one without the foreign buyers. Might want to stay inside and hide under the duvet that day :)

Agent TTP, You're fooling no-one. Even (IF) REINZ spins stable house prices, this means nothing to me or the many anxious vendors struggling to sell. I will simply remind you yet again (sigh) ...only humiliated Agent/s and REINZ will spin the figures upwards in this property specific BUYERS market. Houses with most on offer, considerable investment made and the tastefully renovated are fetching close to CV in this BUYERS market. This is what's distorting the figures. There is an increasing dropout rate, ever increasing listings and persistently dismall clearance rate. Not only is it a BUYERS market, it's also a SUCKERS market ;-)

Oh yeah?

Then why do you get so angry/anxious/bombastic each time the REINZ statistics come out?

You give yourself away by your language.

Note, further, that more than half of Auckland sales are fetching above CV. (But why let the facts ruin a good crusade?)

TTP

......as spoken by Agent TTP, Dr Bindi Spin's most loyal worshiper ;-)

When laundering money you expect to lose 20% in the cleaning process.