Harcourts' nationwide January sales volumes fell 9.1% year-on-year with average selling prices much softer in Auckland 

Harcourts' nationwide January sales volumes fell 9.1% year-on-year with average selling prices much softer in Auckland 

The country's largest real estate agency had a relatively quiet start to the year, with sales volumes down compared to last year and prices particularly soft in Auckland.

Harcourts sold 1302 residential properties throughout the country in January, down 9.1% compared to January last year.

In Auckland sales were down 15.1% compared to last year, in the Wellington region they were down 17.8%, and in Christchurch they were down 3.5%.

Harcourts' national average selling price was $568,391 in January, down from $605,216 in December and $638,992 in November, but still 2.6% ahead of where it was in January last year.

Average selling prices were weakest in Auckland, falling from $955,852 in November to $928,825 in December and $840,825 In January, which was down 10.2% compared to January last year.

In the Wellington region and Christchurch, average prices started the year reasonably flat compared to where they were late last year, but remained well up on a year ago. Wellington's average price of $523,099 in January was up 11.6% compared to a year earlier, and Christchurch's average of $564,876 was up 8.5%.

Nationally, new listings received by Harcourts in January were down 13.8% compared to year earlier, while the total number of properties the agency had available for sale at the end of January was almost unchanged from a year earlier.

See the tables below for Harcourts' full January results and their annual comparisons.

Harcourts' Sales for January 2019

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45 Comments

16
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average sale price down 10% for the year in auckland, does not sound that bad until you say it this way, down 100K in a year

11
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"National Leader Simon Bridges says a capital gains tax would lead to Kiwis leaving NZ for Australia"
Spruikers will argue Australia has a housing surplus whereas we "apparently" have a shortage. Introduction of CGT? Increase bank capital requirements to suck up access credit? Bring it on.....

Watch as these price drops spread nationwide. Looks like a big problem could in time resolve itself. Neither you, or your Party of hedonist's can claim the credit - Simon.

17
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And when they get to Australia, what do they already have? A Capital Gains Tax, that is in the process of going higher if Labor get in - which they should! (Not to mention Stamp Duty of course!)

Spruikers can all leave for Australia, that would be an awesome outcome. With the headwinds building and building I have been somewhat impressed with the ongoing level of Spruiker bullishness. In the face of factual info it is just coming across as denial. Pretty sure denial is part of some property phase I saw once...

Good suggestion. The Aussie housing market has an even bigger need for 'Spruikers' than Auckland does.

yep Denial is there, followed a little later by fear and capitulation

https://transportgeography.org/?page_id=9035

11
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"National Leader Simon Bridges says a capital gains tax would lead to Kiwis leaving NZ for Australia"

Leader should lead from the front :)

Will he leave ?

He's more likely to be put on a Slow boat to China, than Australia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjKkdRwbAEs

(edit) for those that prefer Dean Martin's version below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZxbvgtIR9M

Hi RP

I think you may need to revise your 2019 predictions. What do your models say at the moment?

Nic, in hindsight, I'm now beginning to wonder if I was too optimistic. Might end up being a -10% for Auckland median come December.....

RP. Though we are probably worlds apart in our views, from what I have been seeing of the last two years, and particularly the last six months I’d say your predictions are far more realistic than at any time previously. This market is heading south, and the portents suggest hard south. No need for point scoring now as anyone with even a slight knowledge and skin in the game can see it as easy as night follows day. But I’m still impressed by the recent propitious efforts of economists, market forecasters and headliners whose disingenuous prosaical ramblings seem to be taken as truths that warrant little scrutiny even in the face of a mounting pile of easy to come by facts, figures and lazy deductive reasonings.

What’s increasingly obvious to me is this:
1. At present we don’t have a housing shortage ie:we have plenty of houses
2. We have, as is common in all manifestations of western society, an affordability problem.
3. If u think 1. is actually a problem building a million homes won’t fix it
4. Simon is an egg
5. The Blairwitch won’t fix it either
6. The banks are clearly marketing hard to the last bastion holding up the market
7. Good times don’t last but tough bastards do

lol. none of you use models. that is obvious.

14
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Or lose of approx $2000 per week.

If average is 10% down in reality is some area and some houses Will be down by 15% or 20% or may be more. As house with CV of 1.225 million is pleading for a million and still no buyers.

So situation is bad for speculators but good for FHB but FHB should not rush as by waiting slightly more Will not lose anything.

It's very small on the chart but is that -10% year on year drop in Auckland average price?

Found my glasses... - 10.15%

My guess is that this is probably the most accurate representation of the where the Auckland market really is. -10% over the past year seems about right from what I've been seeing.

On a comparative basis, Auckland figures could get to look really nasty.
Jan 18 vs Jan 19 was down 10%. OK, But what will Feb 18 vs Feb 19 show, and/or Sept 18 vs Sept 19?
Because judging from the article, average prices were still going UP until late in the years ( " selling price was $568,391 in January, down from $605,216 in December and $638,992 in November). The next figures, if they are a monthly fall will be being compared to last years figures that were still RISING, and that will make for a really bad set of comparative figures.

Coreect so overall from the peak prices may have fallen by 20% or more. In May will have the stats of 15%+

House price is falling without the push that is required to trip over the cliff....which when happen will be really bad.

What happens if there is an economic slow down?

Jacinda will sprinkle her fairy dust, Grant will wave his magic wand and Phil will deliver another 10,000 kiwi build houses at under $400k.

With that Huawei rocky relationship, it's just no point buying anymore!

Christchurch is doing well, good work The Man 2! But look at Auckland, LOL!

So the momentum has started despite very low interest rate so the situation is worst than what data shows at the moment.

The only lock or barrier to reduce or stop the fall is and was low interest rate but seems that is not working so if speculator or investor without holding capacity should get out fast to minimize the lose. If waiting and hoping that the situation will change, which will but give few years.

But Tony Alexander told me it wasn't going to go down!!!!

Charlatans say the darndest things don't they.

Do the stats reflect Landlords selling into a soft market & rents rising as a consequence but nothing to do with Govt intentions to sort out the market?

Do the stats reflect Landlords selling into a soft market & rents rising as a consequence but nothing to do with Govt intentions to sort out the market?

What ever happend to old mate TTP? Thought he’d be here to polish it by now.

Maybe the "market" is too liquid to be polished? ;)

This downward trend seems inconsistent with New Zealand folklore.

JJ It is called a mirage so just keep your foot down and get to the other side where all is fabulous as usual.

FYI CoreLogic property update

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQmKLBi1um4

seems everyone is admitting that the Auckland market is "weak"

The slide for Akld has only just begun

Even Harcourt’s misleading 3-dimensial graph is struggling to do its job this time around.

Auckland TradeMe currently at 13,254 – this time last year it was around 11,800.

Many of the key upward price drivers have now either gone or been weakened.

Looks like this party is winding up – the punch bowl has gone.

YES! I saw that as well. I can see the boss asking the comms guy: "how can we make that graph look less shitty?"

Christchurch market is steady and will not drop much even if there was a global crisis as it is a very desirable place to live and growing by the day!

Yes there were too much land opened up at the one time but that is going to eventually be caught up and then prices will spike!

Sit on your deposit at your peril!

“prices will spike” – and then more land will be opened up?

If you think Chch is immune to a global crisis you are nuts!

Global crisis = less exports = less jobs = tightness across the economy including credit.

Unless Chch is exclusively filled with rich retirees, it will be effected by a global crisis.

Not so sure, Rolleston expects to increase its population by 10,000 over 10 years - say 4500 new homes, Prebbleton, Lincoln Halswell all have large subdivisions underway, not sure on Kaiapoi/Belfast/Rangiora/Pegasus but likely to be substantial, I see an oversupply of sections and possibly spec houses this year and liquidations in the construction industry next year. Add in CGT and a world economic downturn and the future looks brutally ugly.

I don’t think we can read into these figures calling a downturn just yet. With a decent drop in sales as well as using the mean, these figures could well be skewed by sales of lower value properties.

We all know harcourts figures do vary wildly as they use the mean. Also don’t forget the figures would aleady have been included in the REINZ data so this may all be slightly moot.

I think with ring-fencing and CGT on the horizon though it will begin a trend downwards, how fast I do not know.

Agreed!

However its all been bad news for Akld of late, even economists and RE firms are admitting Akld is either "weak" or "softening" or a "buyers market".

That can only mean one thing, its sliding!

.

Interesting how statistics are getting harder to find these days. We got to a point that if we had to get to the same prices we had a year ago we should have to see an increase of 11.3% in Auckland. And this is Auckland region including all those outer suburbs that are (or were) still growing. Just today got an email from TradeMe where the statistics showed price drops for some suburbs of 9.5% YOY in October 2018, this is already 3 months ago and before the FBB. So Is NZ different? Yeah no.