Sales at Auckland's largest real estate agency appear to be following the usual seasonal trend and took a dip in April, but selling prices were steady

Sales at Auckland's largest real estate agency appear to be following the usual seasonal trend and took a dip in April, but selling prices were steady

Sales at Auckland's largest real estate agency were down 8.8% in April compared to the same month last year, but there was no effect on prices, which remained unchanged on both an annual and monthly basis.

Barfoot & Thompson sold 667 residential properties in April, down from 731 (-8.8%) in April last year but almost unchanged from the 664 properties the agency sold in April 2017.

It is one of the ironies of the real estate market that March is traditionally the busiest month of the year for sales, while April is one of the worst because of the Easter and Anzac Day breaks.

Sales then usually pick up again in May, before slowly declining over the winter months and then picking up again in spring.

Barfoot's sales appear to be following the usual seasonal trends so far, however, there is no doubt that sales have been more subdued over the last two years than they were during the previous five years.

While Barfoot's sales took a dip in April, prices remained resolutely stable, with a median selling price of $830,000, unchanged from April last year and almost unchanged from the March median of $836,000.

The average selling price was $928,330 in April, also virtually unchanged from the March average of $931,673 and the April 2018 average of $930,223.

However the agency did record a significant decline in new listings in April, with just 1192 additional properties coming onto its books in April, down 12.2% compared to April last year.

But that appears to have also helped prevent a build up of stock with Barfoots having a total of 4683 residential properties available for sale at the end of April, down 3.7% compared to the 4865 on its books at the end of March but virtually unchanged from the 4678 it had available at the end of April last year.

However, inventory levels remain much higher than they were at the end of the boom, when the company had total inventory of just 2846 properties available in April 2016, so buyers still have plenty to choose from.

"In addition to the uncertainty the shadow of a potential Capital Gains Tax threw over April sales activity, the market also had to contend with an exceptionally long holiday break created by Easter and Anzac Day being so close," Barfoot & Thompson Director Kiri Barfoot said.

"While uncertainty around prices is is affecting overall sales numbers, it is not having an effect on any one price segment," she said.

During April, 38% of Barfoot's sales sold for less than $750,000, 30% sold for between $750,000 and $1 million and 32% sold for more than $1 million.

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12
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So the buyers spent the same average amount.. but what did they get for their money? Are they getting more house for their money or about the same? Are they getting a Camry for what was last years Corolla price? I guess we have to wait for the HPI report for that.

10
up

I've maintained this view on here for a while, the market price is dictated primarily by what buyers have access to spend, not by what the sellers would like to sell for. Average selling prices could be 5 - 10% down but does that figure also incorporate any shift in the underlying value of property types/attributes?

Example:
Let's say you have 10 properties sold, 4 x 2 Beds @ $250k, 6 x 3 Beds @ $350k, 4 x 4 Beds @ $450k.
Drop each of the sell prices by 10%, decrease the number of 2 Beds by 2 and increase the number of 4 beds by 2. (This reflects a buyer shift where 2 buyers upgrade from 2 beds to 3 beds, and 2 buyers upgrade from 3 beds to 4 beds).

The average sell price will show as only being 2.7% down, but every house is selling for 10% less. Now I get the numbers can be fudged to suit any narrative, but i'm just illustrating how the average sales figures can be distorted.

Yeah.
It’s quite likely that the ‘steady’ median is a mirage. I think, like for like, property is down more than 7% in Auckland.

Sales volumes down. Prices steady.

What’s new?

TTP

12
up

Mr. tothepoint where you yesterday for the story that the average asking price was down 9.2% for Auckland? I think a lot of people missed your words of comfort. Great to see you back!

TPP, I admire your "She'll be fine" attitude.. keep it up, sir!

Its 2019 mate. Please don't assume the property markets gender!

PS, I am not your mate (I might not be a mate either) also there is a Mrs. tothepoint

Just, Mrs The Point. No "to" in there.

Watch out. He/she/it doesn't get jokes.

Reminds me of a biblical quote "Even a fool is thought wise if he keeps silent, and discerning if he holds his tongue."

No worries here, I am mortgage free. Famlies with high gearing may be worried as well along with ringfencing of losses.

See above, we don't know what the prices have done from this data.

There you go:
"While Barfoot's sales took a dip in April, prices remained resolutely stable, with a median selling price of $830,000, unchanged from April last year and almost unchanged from the March median of $836,000"

Sales volumes down, asking prices down, popular delusion steady.

Lowest 4 months combined sales since 2008, historical low interest rates, just under 7 months of " current " stock on rolling 4 month basis. Oh the dilemma.
We marched them all to the top of the hill.

Hi Cowpat (my bovine friend),

There may be a slight lift in Auckland house prices over winter......

First home buyers have become more active. Further, investor interest is picking up again, especially with the recent announcement by Govt re CGT kicked into touch.

Happy house-hunting everyone - just a pity that new listings have drifted back.

TTP

Got data?

Didn't think so.

Agent Tothepoint, do you still believe the FBB is a fizzer? by tothepoint | 5th Dec 18, 7:15am "Note that the evidence to date shows the so-called FBB has had little, if any, impact on the housing market"

TTP

Refer to my comments in NZ Stats figures on FBB article that follows.
FB homes down from 1086 in 2019, but demand from immigration (assuming 5 people per house) is for 12,000 homes per year.
So, yes FBB will have some effect; however not as significant as that from continuing high levels of immigration means that the FBB may not be all that significant.
Happy to debate this in the following article on NZ Stats FBB article.
If the FBB isn't called a "fizzer", then a "another KiwiBuild Policy" is certainly appropriate.

TTP is a mortgage broker I believe, not an agent. Has posted previously that one should cut agents out of transaction and save some coin and/or negotiate down a commission. Could still be an agent I guess... but unlikely.

Clearly has skin in the game on keeping the rhetoric up, so suspect broker. Wonder if they will share their commission with us if we make them compete against each other too?

Median is stable as now FHB who were trying to buy in 700s are now looking at early 800s as able to get much better deal for their $$$$ (Instead of 2 Bedroom Unit are able to opt for 3 Bedroom free section House - may be a do up house but still a better choice than a 2 bedroom unit) Also low interest supports so not much difference in median, may be.

In Pakuranga, Howick, Bucklandbeach and near around area : Houses that were earlier selling for 1.5 Million Plus are going near around 1.3Million or 1.1Million and 1.1 or 1.2 Million houses are going in 900s and if very good may be a million and houses that were selling earlier for Mid900 to million are now going near around Mid 800s (May be late 800 depending upon the house but at the same time some are also going in 800s to early 800s).

2 bedroom Units that were going earlier between 700 to high 700s have not fallen much but are now going between high 600s to mid 700s.

One can judge where one will get better deal for their $$$ with some exception.

From the peak market is down by 10% to 20% atleast in the above area. Will take time for so called experts and media to report the truth - just like FB were just 3% - what a joke that was :)

Haven't seen any 1.1-1.2m houses going for 900s in Howick or Bucklands Beach unless they're crappy plaster homes in which case they aren't worth their CV.

To name a few will be cherry picking. Just check few houses that have been sold. Also many which are not getting the desired result are been pulled back - Few houses in Marendella drive at Bucklands Beach, which were asking in 900s but as unable both were pulled out of market instead of selling in Mid to high 800s or even 900000 (normally earlier would have got anything between a million to 1.1 million). Many - just another day a wonderfuly house in Grove lane went for Mid 900s which had a CV of 1150000 and in same street another house with CV of 12250000 also went for mid 900s but that was a do up but still both the houses earlier easily would have have got near CV or may be few percentage below CV.

A house my father built around 1990 at Eastern Beach 5 bedroom sold for $875,000 last month. I thought it was worth $1.2million.

was it a plaster house?

FYI, the CV has already been adjusted to take account of the monolithic cladding. The CV is $300,000 less than a similar house with different cladding.

alittle crazy

When I view the sales data on individual houses sold in my area not averages or medians etc but hard data on an individual property it is very obvious that houses prices in my area are falling. Many selling at 80 to 90 percent of CV.

What area VeryInterested?

Auckland, Eastern Suburbs (Orakei, Mission Bay, Kohimarama, St Heliers, Glendowie, Meadowbank, St Johns)

A few examples just from yesterdays failed to sells at barfoots auction:
144a Riddell now listed with an asking price above RV, but below what they paid in Oct 2017.
21A Allum, asking $2.45m, RV of $2.925m
1/8 Conrad drive, asking $975k, RV of 1.22m (but looks like a leaky rot box)

144a Owned by a Real Estate Agent

Heh, I'm surprised the asking price isn't $2.6m then... they usually believe their own BS.

Yep I am seeing that too.

Lies. Damn lies. And statistics. Depending on your spin. Such is life.

The housing market in NZ is just not Auckland, Although people would think it was going by the no. of posts from Aucklanders!
Reality is that many in Auckland will have been put off investing in Auckland by all the mingling by this coalition government that got into power only thru a crazy MMP system!
Capital gains talk was an absolute fizzier, but which is a real sham as it would ensure that they would be kicked out next year.
The ringfencing Of losses that many investors will have, is a bigger problem for many of the newer investors that haven’t bought positively geared property.
ChCh market is still extremely stable and probably represents the most stable market in nz, and yet there are still many opportunities daily that represent value.
I can uncategorically state that experienced investors are not only providing an invaluable service to people in NZ that don’t want to buy a home, but are also doing very nicely financially.

TM2, I am 1000% certain that when the revolution comes, you will be saved for providing invaluable services to (poor) people!

"I can uncategorically state that experienced investors are not only provided an invaluable service to people I."

Unsure of which part of the syntax here I should untangle first....

OK, I agree. I wouldn't categorise your comment at all either.

Well FHBs dont have equity to play with, only their measly millennial deposits and wages to beg the bank for some money. Investors are scared shitless.

Winter has come.

What investors are scared?

I know many investors in ChCh and not one of them is scared of the current ChCh market that is just fine!

I went to the Shortland St auction yesterday. Not too many bidders but the first two houses had some good bidding. I left after that. I was interested to see how this house was received:

https://www.barfoot.co.nz/property/residential/auckland-city/greenlane/t...

To me it seemed like a perfect example of a house that should sell in the current environment without too much difficulty. Four bedrooms, nice materials and very well presented at a good price point for the location. Not too high a value but still a nice place for middle-class folk. It sold for 1580k. I predicted 1600k so was quite pleased with this result.

If you have a well presented place made of good materials in a good location that is not too pricey you will not have difficulty selling.

Okay, how many properties in Auckland are well presented and made of good materials?

I guess the "take away" is when buying focus on these features as they become very important if you have to sell in a less than ideal market.

Well done to those investors who have bought properties in Dunedin, Wellington, The Bay and alike. Those who are still holding in Auckland and Christchurch. Sell them now. What you are currently experiencing in terms of dropping values and rents is just the beginning.

"Those who are still holding in Auckland and Christchurch. Sell them now"

Easier said than done!!!

Asking prices in Akld have dropped on average by $90k and still the sales volumes are abysmal, good luck for those trying to get out now.......

It's my milk that I spilled, I can cry if I wanted to

It is great to know that the Christchurch market is still as stable as ever, and investors don’t need to sell as demand is high for well presented fully compliant property!
Why would anyone need to sell when their returns are generally positive?

This home in Stanmore Bay has an RV of $1.3m and is now listed after a massive price reduction at $745k.
16 Claude Road, Stanmore Bay, Rodney, Auckland
And they say prices are 'flat'. Looks like the bloodbath is well and truly begun.

That's not a typical sale though. It is really just selling for the land value which is in the 700s so the price is about right. Selling for 4.5% below RV land value.

So where do you think the market is at Zach? You still sound fairly bullish.
I know one or two agents on a personal level, it's interesting hearing their honest views on the market versus the BS the agencies and institutes spout.
Their view is that prices are typically 5-10% down from peak, there are exceptions (some better, some worse), but as a generalisation that is what they are saying.

I think that sounds about right over all. One's impression of the market can be skewed by individual cases where the house is fabulous or very much less than fabulous or where a vendor had paid too much even for the peak times.