The highest sales rate at Barfoot & Thompson's latest auctions was at the Manukau auction while activity was more subdued on the North Shore

The highest sales rate at Barfoot & Thompson's latest auctions was at the Manukau auction while activity was more subdued on the North Shore

Sales were achieved on a quarter of the properties at Barfoot & Thompson's auction last week.

The agency, which is the largest in Auckland, marketed 91 properties for sale by auction last week (6-12 May), and achieved sales on 24 of them, giving an overall sales rate of 26%.

At the major auctions where at least 10 properties were offered, the sales rates ranged from 45% at the Manukau auction, where the properties offered were from Auckland's southern and eastern suburbs, to 18% at the North Shore auction.

There were mixed results at from the auctions at the agency's head office in Shortland Street, with the sale rates ranging from 40% at the auction on May 7, where the properties offered were from central/west suburbs such as Blockhouse Bay, Mt Roskill and New Lynn, to 22% at the auction on May 10, where the properties offered were mainly from west Auckland suburbs such as Henderson, Glen Eden and West Harbour. (See table below for the results from all of Barfoot's auctions last week).

Details of the individual properties offered are available from our Residential Auction Results page.

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Barfoot & Thompson Auction Results 6-12 May 2019
Date Venue Sold Not sold Total % Sold
6-12 May On-site 1 9 10 10%
7 May Manukau 10 12 22 45%
7 May Shortland St, CBD. 2 3 5 40%
8 May Mortgagee/Court 1 2 3 33%
8 May Whangarei 1 2 3 33%
8 May Shortland St, CBD. 3 7 10 30%
8 May Pukekohe 0 4 4 -
9 May North Shore 4 18 22 18%
9 May Kerikeri 0 2 2 -
9 May Shortland St, CBD. 0 1 1 -
10 May Shortland St, CBD. 2 7 9 22%
Total All venues 24 67 91 26%

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18
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So percentage has fallen from 36% to 26%.

Also in Manukau, percentage is better as know that many vendors have dropped their expectation and most houses are going 10% below CV (If CV is between high 700 to mid 800s) to 20% to 25% below CV where CV is high.

Direction of the housing market is down - like it or not and FHB should be careful and try to get the best of their $$$ (deposit) and not get influenced by vested experts and media reporting ( Like they before yesterday read an expert comment that house price will go up by 7%)

13
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......I have it on good authority from the resident agent "tothpoint" that buyers who failed to commit in 2017/2018/2019 would soon live to regret it.

Truth is, it seems more and more that bought on 2016 are already regretting it. FHB's would be wise to wait.

Agrred that anyone who bought in 2016 and afterwards and are planing to sell now are in for a loss (Mostly) unless are genuine investors and have bought for long term and able to hold for couple of years from here on and if not should sell now and book loss before it gets worse irrespective of what the so called experts says that house price will rise by 7% - Joke but many FHB may fall for it - False propganda - Misinformation.

13
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The spruiking to first time home buyers really is deplorable. How many signs do you need that this is not a great time to buy but even more so if this is your first entry point into the market? Buying and selling in the same market - meh, not so bad (and if you're downsizing, even better). But young people falling for the guff like what Stuff is peddling below (and The Herald is no better) could find themselves in debt up to their eyeballs, all their deposit gone, the value of all their upgrades vanished in a few years' time.

Even with rates low like they are now, you can't lock them for any reasonable amount of time that would justify buying a declining asset. Far better to rent a while longer and see where this is headed. These real-estate-agency-funded advertising machines need to act a damn site more responsible and report on what is actually happening, not what advertisers tell them to. It's just too tempting for kids amping to buy their own places to believe the hype.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/112561126/market-conditions-right-for-fir...

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/112623144/lessons-from-a-firsttime-homeowner

With the recent BAN on Capital Gains Tax and the cut in the OCR (with another cut a possibility) it would be unwise to assume that the housing market will remain the same forever......

First-home buyers have now become relatively active in the market - and investor interest is picking up.

In a few years time, many will look back on the current era as one of missed opportunity - especially in Auckland. There will be regrets.

TTP

I agree it's good to buy when the buying's good, but it seems a little early for FOMO :-)

BAN? lol.

Lets see what the REINZ figures later today say. I'm going with median down, volumes still at a multiyear low, inventory +20% on this time last year. ( Auckland). Regions probably still rising medians and low stock.

edit; revised inventory figure up to +20% YoY

dammit, should have left inventory at +15%

Median price YoY = no change, (-0.6% seasonally adjusted) must have been a weak month last year too.
Median price -0.9% MoM
Auckland HPI -4.4%, YoY lowest in three years.

Auckland inventory +15%

Auckland volume -16.3% YoY (-19.2% seasonally adjusted), lowest for April in 11years.

Yeah, i don't see any reason to worry about the auckland market taking off again. FOMO levels are at rock bottom.

..."in a few years time there (WILL BE) regrets"

Oh really? Agent Tothepoint, are you saying there will be a "slight upswing", an "upswing" or another "bull run" in 2022? If you are really guaranteeing there will be an atmosphere of "regret", you're predicting another 2015/2016 style bull run. How are you substantiating this? You're dreaming if its achieved with negative mortgage rates - lol!

I think it's time you tell all here what percentage of upward movement will cause an atmosphere of "regret" in 2022 and back your prediction with some sound facts.

Hi R-P,

I have made no specific prediction about the year 2022.

You go on telling mistruths.

TTP

C'mon Dad - you can do better than that. Give these doom merchants some facts, not opinions.

SOAP

The reality is quite simple, even for you to understand. Basically the money has gone! And now were starting to see what a huge impact this has had on not just us but also Australia and Canada's cities.

Better Dwelling Article: China’s Massive International Real Estate Buying Spree Is Officially Dead
https://betterdwelling.com/chinas-massive-international-real-estate-buyi...

Clearly, there are certain people here who are terrified at the thought of a recovery in the housing market.......

But with every day that passes, the recovery gets closer. AHHHHHH, the agony!!

TTP

True, one day in the future Akld house prices will start rising again.

The Question is how low do they drop before that happens, 15%, 20%, 50% who knows.

Ive always maintained that I believe Akld will drop 25-30% from peak, and that is looking extremely likely.

Some will say: "Sales clearance rate just under 50%"

A quick flick the results and there are not many above RV, and most of them that are have new shiny kitchens and bathrooms to get them there.. One hugely above RV (64 Connell) but it turns out its a new build so the RV is likely for whatever got bulldozed to make way for it. Mairangi Bay and surrounds is taking a hammering.

I live in the Mairangi Bay area and I see new 'for sale' and 'open home' signs popping up every day. Pretty much every street along the whole East Coast Bays area have signs up from multiple RE agencies. Our ex-landlords have been trying to sell their big 5 bedroom house since October. Failed to sell at auction on the 9th.
So what's changed since 2016? Zero Chinese buyers. It's like the audience of open homes has been whitewashed (and reduced in numbers significantly). One family (instead of zero) showing up to an open home is now considered good.

Looking at the auctions results it's quite easy to see that prices are really slipping now especially in Auckland. Still fascinates me that RE's and Politicians don't seem to realize how much people salaries have been suppressed in the larger cities due to high immigration over the last decade, so they simply can't afford million dollar homes.
FTB's would do best to hang on at least until Summer, I think it's going to take another year until the market fully bottoms out.

In Australia even 50% sales rate is considered to be bad and here in NZ people are so hooked up with housing that even at 25% are positive.

FHB should think and try not to be fooled by vested experts/media and try to get the maxium for their valuable deposit.

My advice is that any potential FHB should totally ignore anything our resident spruiker TTP has to say. Most on here are experienced and cynical enough to see through it, I just hope some potentially more naive FHBs look at what he has to say with open eyes.
This kind of spruiking will get stronger the longer the Auckland malaise goes on.

I thought we where short of houses by about 20k a year for the last few years, if there is a shortage how can the prices be falling?

Most Aucklanders don't earner enough to sanely support mortgages that come with the $1.3m+ pricetags in many places. I suspect that is where the majority of sales have dissappeared from. <$800k houses still seem to be selling okay in the old auckland city council areas.

Possible that the royal commission effect is limiting credit at the extreme end, now that HEM type scores have been discarded..... Responsible lending etc, that said none of the banks reported any serious upticks in mortgages falling behind last week in the 1H results. Employment in NZ is still very solid and int rates are falling so its not stress.... other household costs seem to keep rising, flat incomes. It has surprised me how resilient the Manurewa rental market has been still people buying there...

It seems to me will will require some international event (S&P500 crash?) and a global hit before any capitulation ... otherwise its a wait and see period where most houses sit unsold due to unrealistic price expectations. This has occurred in Auckland many times over the years, normally inflation stokes the next leg up, it would appear that inflation is missing from the global economy this time.

I was looking through a number of properties for sale in West Auckland yesterday in the $700k to $800k search bracket and matching them against the values in homes.co.nz.

I was shocked at the values homes.co.nz was giving them, some $100K under the 2017 RV.

Clearly the middle sector is also getting hammered.............

Hold tight, TTP and TM2 will come up with their own stats shortly...

Stats? Nope, just the usual "you'll regret not buying now" and "it's a great time to buy in ChCh".

Prices double every 7-10 years.. this time is no diffrunt! ;)

If that is correct, and since prices in Auckland have been flat since 2016, for property prices to double, we only need to wait 4-7 years.

I have been predicting this slow collapse in the housing market for the past two years and it is now regretfully coming to pass. You were advised by me at the time to sell and capture any capital gain you may have achieved, but it's too late as that opportunity has well and truly gone. The next few months will see "capitulation" especially in the Auckland market, where vendors will slash their expectations and sell at whatever they may be offered. This capitulation has an immediate knock on effect on all surrounding properties until we get the "waterfall" effect with each lower sale creating an even lower sale price next door, around the corner, and soon enough everywhere. I was hoping for a Zombie market at worst, where nothing much happens, but now I see the signs of a true full blown crash looming. Pity the house and apartment developers trying to sell new dwellings as they build into a growing vacuum at todays costs, plus profit, plus 15% GST tax on top of every blade of grass, every nail, and every door knob. The cut in the OCR is a futile effort to create some stimulation. It will have no effect whatsoever. You could set rates to zero percent and that will not make the slightest difference. Possibly non-recourse loans, (i.e. no personal guarantees) or 25-30 year fixed interest rates may help, but there is no chance of that. It was fun while it lasted, but my advice is not to touch residential with a 20 foot barge pole. As an investment this would be the utmost folly.

you are a god!

BigDaddy - It would appear that a 10-15% drop in price will be required to get a clearing market again... Similar to Sydney etc, we should then start to see sone clearance, but I am not sure, even with 10-15% drops, that this represents a good buying opportunity.... Good will be when we have fallen 50% of the last run up, which is perhaps around 25% off the peak or perhaps around 15-20% below most CVs. We should be seeing 6% raw rental yields again. You should be looking at well maintained brick and tile houses on LARGE sections, be wary the absent landlords who are dumping houses with no maintenance spent for 10 years.... there are plenty of these out there.

Just a comment about Auckland apartments.. the number of listings is still growing constantly. Unlike houses and Units etc there has been no seasonal peak and then a decline.

In mid Jan there were 1308 Apartment listings on Trademe, last night it was 1687. Up 29% since January. Realestate.co.nz numbers are a higher total number, 1955 Apartments as of last night, but they also started higher at 1672 in Jan.

First time buyers will avoid apartments if they can buy a small house and land, even further smashing apartment values, this is why banks require a larger deposit for apartments....

BigDaddy ...totally agree with your comments and you put it so well, the vast chasm between the purchase price of a house and land package vs the average salary/wage earners household income. "Taking The Proverbial" et al need to realise that not everyone is a residential property developer and some people just want 1 (one) home only.

I am in the process of getting rid of all my ALL debt within the next 8 months ....and as far as I am concerned, it's just the one house for me here in NZ.
In fact,it might be a good time to put some cash on the sidelines.... pull up a chair, grab some popcorn and watch how this greedy mess all pans out.......

Really who do you believe ? on the radio today that house prices are UP 6% year on year. I guess this must be nationally.

In 1992, or some time around then, I seem to remember people speculating on where house buyers had gone. It seemed that there were all sorts of places to go; back to Hong Kong, parents basement, back to Whanganui, anywhere in Australia, the West Coast. It turns out that, a bit like Air BnB, there are lots of places to hide out when things get tough.
Speculation has fueled property prices. If incomes are threatened or fall, and they regularly are, especially for young people, it's anyones guess as to how far prices could fall.