Too many observers have lost sight of one of the key lessons of World War I. The Great War was triggered by the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in June 1914, which occurred against the backdrop of a long-simmering conflict between Europe’s major powers. This interplay between conflict escalation and a political spark has special resonance today.
With war raging in Ukraine and a cold-war mentality gripping the United States and China, there can be no mistaking the historical parallels. The world is simmering with conflict and resentment. All that is missing is a triggering event. With tensions in Taiwan, the South China Sea, and Ukraine, there are plenty of possible sparks to worry about.
Taiwan is a leading candidate. Even if, like me, you do not accept the US view that President Xi Jinping has consciously shortened the timeline for reunification, recent actions by the US government may end up forcing his hand. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi traveled to Taipei last August, and her successor, Kevin McCarthy, seems intent on doing the same. The newly established House Select Committee on China appears likely to send its own mission shortly, especially following the unannounced recent visit of its chairman, Mike Gallagher.
Meanwhile, a just-completed visit to Taipei by a senior official from the Pentagon, in the aftermath of the December enactment of the $10 billion Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act, leaves little doubt about US military support for China’s so-called renegade province. While the US squirms to defend the One China principle enshrined in the 1972 Shanghai Communiqué, there can no longer be any doubt about US political support for preserving Taiwan’s independent status. That is a red line for China – and a geopolitical flashpoint for everyone else.
I worry just as much about a spark in Ukraine. One year into this horrific and once-unthinkable conflict, there is a new and ominous twist to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spring offensive. The US is warning of an escalation of Chinese support for Russia from non-lethal assistance (like purchasing Russian energy products) to lethal aid (weapons, ammunition, or logistical arms-supply capabilities).
The Biden administration’s vague threat of serious consequences for China if it offers lethal aid to Russia’s war effort is reminiscent of similar US warnings that preceded the imposition of unprecedented sanctions on Russia. In the eyes of US politicians, China would be guilty by association and forced to pay a very steep price. Just as Taiwan is China’s red line, Washington believes the same can be said of Chinese military support for Russia’s war campaign.
There are plenty of other potential sparks, not least from ongoing tensions in the South China Sea. The recent expansion of US access to Philippine military bases located midway between Taiwan and China’s militarised islands in the Scarborough Shoal and the Spratly (Nansha) Archipelago is a case in point.
As the US continues to enforce freedom of navigation in the international waters of the South China Sea by sailing naval vessels through it, the possibility of an accident or unintended confrontation can hardly be ruled out. A near-miss between a US reconnaissance flight and a Chinese warplane in late December is indicative of these risks, which are all the more serious given the breakdown in military-to-military communications between the two superpowers – glaringly evident during the great balloon fiasco earlier this month.
Context is key in assessing the likelihood of any spark. Under the political cover of what it bills as a battle between autocracy and democracy, the US has clearly been the aggressor in turning up the heat on Taiwan over the past six months. Similarly, the Chinese surveillance balloon incident brought the cold-war threat much closer to home for the US public. And senior diplomats on both sides – US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi – have taken on the role of classic cold warriors. Their belligerent rhetoric at the recent Munich Security Conference mirrored that of their first meeting in Anchorage nearly two years ago.
As was the case before World War I, it is tempting to minimise the risk of a major conflict. After all, today’s globalised, interconnected world has too much at stake to risk a seismic unraveling. That argument is painfully familiar. It is the same one made in the early twentieth century, when the first wave of globalisation was at its peak. It seemed compelling to many right up to June 28, 1914.
The historical comparison with 2023 must be updated to reflect the grand strategy of cold war conflict. A decisive turning point in the Cold War with the Soviet Union came in 1972, when US President Richard Nixon went to China and ultimately joined with Mao Zedong in executing a successful triangulation strategy against the USSR. Today, the US is on the receiving end of a new cold-war triangulation, with China having joined Russia in a partnership “without limits” that takes dead aim at US hegemonic power. This pivotal shift brings the lessons of 1914 into increasingly sharper focus.
Having just published a book about accidental conflict as an outgrowth of dueling false narratives between the US and China, I am particularly worried about “narrative segmentation.” Each side is convinced that it holds the moral high ground as conflict lurches from one incident to another. For the US, China’s surveillance balloon was a threat to national sovereignty. For China, US support for Taiwan is a similar threat. Each point of tension then triggers a cascading stream of retaliatory responses without recognition of collateral implications for a deeply conflicted relationship.
Three great powers – America, China, and Russia – all seem to be afflicted by a profound sense of historical amnesia. They are collectively sleepwalking down a path of conflict escalation, carrying high-octane fuel that could be ignited all too easily. Just like 1914.
*Stephen S. Roach, a former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is a faculty member at Yale University and the author of the forthcoming Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives (Yale University Press, November 2022). Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2023, published here with permission.
51 Comments
This article seems to me to be a diatribe against the US? or are my blinkers blinding me? Beijing is threatening Taiwan which is an independent, democratic country, and Putin invaded Ukraine. The US engineered neither of these, despite rhetoric to the contrary. NATO is not a threat to any one despite Putin's claims, it is now and has always been a DEFENSIVE pact to protect against Soviet initially and now Russian aggression.
I agree that the world appears to sleepwalking into the next major conflict, but rather it is doing a Chamberlain in that believing diplomacy and talk can deter aggressors from their ambitions.
Yes that was a sop to Mao by Nixon in part i think to try to stop them from moving into Vietnam when the US finally pulled out. I think at the time the US was afraid of what they didn't know about China (just like The USSR), and succumbed to pressure to appease them. Another Chamberlain act.
China is a little resource poor so has eyes ont he oil and gas under the South China sea.
A compromise may well be china oil and gas companies working with the Indonesians and Phillipines to extract, under revenue and resource sharing agreements... The US may want these contracts and access to the energy. If the US doesnt allow this compromise I suspect that there will be fighting....
Without the energy the interest on current financial commitments cannot be paid the entire ponzi of fiat debt will collapse, so wars will be faught IMHO.
Taiwan is a different thing, one wonders where the gold is, still in Taiwan, in the US already or a combination.
China could roll through vietname, burma, thailand. I think they may find it impossible to take Indonesia and the Phillipines. Especially with Australian help.
what happens Pakistan vs India? China would love for Pakistan to stick a boot into india.
IMHO India looks to be in a prime position, growing population, good strategic position
China has acquired great influence over a massive swathe of territory, from the sub continent to the Mediterranean, without needing to fire a shot. Myanmar, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and a fair bit of Syria,Lebanon & Iraq alongside of Russia. Russia’s weakening from its venture into Ukraine has too strengthened China’s hand for the areas between the two nations, Mongolia in particular. Overall China has done rather nicely for itself by not doing too much too overtly. A war of any sort between these three major powers would be catastrophic to each of them but the USA has a distinct advantage of having either side, large oceans. It is anyway impossible to seriously consider that any land invasion could be launched on any of the three but given those logistics the only possibility would be China vs Russia.
Meanwhile our defense forces are bleeding personnel at an alarming rate.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/programmes/the-detail/story/2018879276/the-detail…
Saving a few dollars on defense is a bit like not insuring your house.
I agree with this article, but I would add.
No war is possible without prior conditioning of the public to eagerly accept participation in the war. This is accomplished via the mass media engaging in this promotion. In the years/months leading up to hostilities. It happened in WWI as well. The media continues in their onesided coverage, also dehumanizing those who happen to oppose this unfortunate narrative.
We are seeing this at present with the western media's coverage of the Ukraine war. It will only take one event to drag other western nations further into it than they already are.
I wish it was that simple. Unfortunately the NZ military is involved via training members of the Armed forces of Ukraine (taking place in the UK) Training and advisory participation is only one step removed from actual combat operations. Given the current compliant state of our weak political class, I suspect it would only take one phone call, for that extra step to occur.
The Poles are not asleep. In WW2 they were first split, trashed and occupied by the Germans and Soviets. Overrun one way by the former and then overrun on the way back and occupied by the latter. As with the three Baltic States, Russia is seen as a hardened enemy and the history of that, hardly forgotten. There is, as the Wehrmacht and Napoleon discovered, huge swathes of land between say Kharkov & Warsaw. If Russia is coming then the Poles will meet them well east of Warsaw and if Russia thinks it can spring out an offensive from either Transnistria or Kalingrad they are dreaming.,Hell they couldn’t even take Kharkov from right next door. The Wehrmacht did it twice with horrendously long supply lines and horse transport. Oh, don’t forget Poland is a member of NATO. In term of Ukraine, until Russia secures Kharkov, well they ain’t going anywhere far westwards at all.
History can repeat, Putin threatening to invade Poland now
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/24/moscow-must-push-borders-back-…
Shades of the Nazi-Soviet pact turning to Sino-Soviet pact???
Don't think he would be alive if if he said stuff without Putin's approval; it's probably a statement designed to create uncertainty and apprehension about true Russian intention and capability i.e "Don't mess with us, we're madder than you think!"; echoing Putin's nuclear threats.
And it would appeal to certain people and governments who believe, or pretend to believe, the Putin party line that it's not just a land grab, but a necessary action to increase Russian security, and that includes Polish, Ukrainian and lots of other land in the long run.
It won't just be Poland but also: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova and (parts of) Romania.
Russia are trying to recreate what they see are defensible borders. ALL of their military conflicts in the last 20 years have shown that.
The issue is that if they succeed then they will try to invade a NATO country and when they do the casualty rate will be so high that the likelihood of a nuclear exchange becomes almost 100%
This is why NATO & the US are pumping training and military equipment into Ukraine.
Anti-China Rhetoric Is Off the Charts in Western Media
The mass hysteria reflects the biases inherent in the world’s most powerful media outlets.
Why hasn't the US condemned the slaughter of civilians in Yemen?
I aren't doing a "what about that" to distract from China, I am saying they both should have. But they don't because you don't criticise your allies actions or they quickly stop being your allies. Politics 101.
Doesn’t change anything. The Ukranians don’t need to be told Putin’s rule will be worse than Stalin’s. They will never bow to Russian rule again, Holodomor is less than 100 years history. A huge hunk of territory to firstly, conquer then subdue and then hold. And that won’t happen unless there are boots on the ground, and there are a lot of empty Russian boots and busted tanks, already. No nation has ever been bombed into submission unless you want to include Japan 1945 and if that is considered to be a precedent, well then, that is apocalyptic talk isn’t it. Who pushes the first button then because what goes out comes back in.
Nope, just saying the US picks and chooses who it wants to condemn. It claims to be applying a "rules based order" to everything, but it doesn't do this at all, it simply decides to pick winners and losers according to whatever aims it has. Believing this is fair and right from a country who will invade anyone for resources at the drop of a hat, is quite naive.
Funny thing is I think India essentially gave the US the finger a long time ago. They even gave the UK the finger too, early on opting for Russian built military equipment rather than British. They've been thumbing their nose at the US for years. Ignoring drug company patents is just an example. Personally I think good on them, they have the size to get away with it, but the message to the rest of the world is that they are INDEPENDENT and will make their own choices irrespective of the pressure, for the best interests of India, not political expediency.
Big question here for the pundits - do they think the US is engineering the Chinese activity on the Indian border, as they claimed the US was to Russia in Ukraine (despite a couple of out there diplomats).
Unlikely they are engineering that border dispute, they don't have enough sway over either country. India having recently been a puppet of the British knows to forge its own path, like you say. TBH the UN has a process for sorting out territorial disputes which all of these countries should follow as they are all signatories to it. Just like China should on the 9 dashed lines in the South China sea, they should present their evidence to the international courts and allow them to make the decision. The previous court decision China didn't even show up to, a major disappointment.
India is unlikely to also be belligerent and try and expand it's borders, so should be allowed to also find their way in the world as China should be.
Agree. I'd add the neither China nor Russia would be likely to abide by any World Court or UN decision unless they basically just rolled over to their demands. They, (China and Russia) are just demonstrated neighbourhood bullies. Cave in to one demand and more will follow. There is no winning or peace once you start giving ground.
India is rightly determining it rightful place in the world and buying Russian military gear is their choice, in view of Russias militarry equipment performance in Ukraine and the unlikely availability of spares in future may give India a wake up call but buying Russian oil at a deep discount is good economic sense. Inida's skirmishes with China over road/rail access and water will not resolve easily as India is becoming water short in the high country were water extraction rates are in excess of replenishment and these areas are major food producers. China has 3 major issues - Demographics, social unrest and debt and as a trading nation a policy from Xi that results in major trading restrictions will be catastrophic to all three so unlikely to create a situation were war or trade precipitate these issues into reality. Xi may be evil but he is not stoopid so expect continuation of a war of words not actions.
You don't have to read too much between the lines to see that the common thread here is the grave danger a declining US empire poses to the world. The US reneged on its commitment to Gorbachev not to expand NATO to the east in the late 1980s, pulled out of the anti-ballistic missile treaty in 2002, and supported the overthrow of Yanukovych in 2014. They have been arming and training the Ukrainians since that time (this war is nearly ten years old, not one). The principal warmongers are the same: Victoria Nuland, Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden. None of this justifies Putin's criminal invasion, but the provocation came from US-led NATO.
With respect to China, the US has officially held the 'one China' policy since 1972. This is a position of 'strategic ambiguity,' recognizing that Taiwan is a part of China while maintaining unofficial relations between the US and Taiwan. It has worked fine for over 50 years, but not unlike Ukraine, the US is ramping up the tension by expanding military aid to Taiwan, building new military bases in the Philippines, and generally pursuing a strategy of 'encircling' China in the South Pacific. Make no mistake; the US is twisting New Zealand's arm and this will only increase.
The reality is that the US is in irreversible decline. It hollowed out its manufacturing base decades ago and its population has suffered stagnating standards of living and spiking levels of drug addiction. They are also, of course, armed to the teeth and routinely kill each other in large numbers. I say all this as an American who lived most of my life there and returns regularly.
However, the jig is nearly up, in my opinion. The war in Ukraine is pretty much over: Ukraine and the West have lost. Sooner than people realize, a BRICS+ nations currency will emerge as a viable competitor to the dollar, trillions of which will be dumped onto world markets once it loses its status as the global reserve currency. US (and NZ) interest rates will spike to levels not seen for 40 years, if ever, and asset prices in dollars will plummet. The failed war in Ukraine will only accelerate this process.
Some big calls there Joe! Even though US manufacturing is a shadow of its former self, I think they are more than capable of ramping it back up quite quickly. And lets not forget that America is very single minded if backed into a corner! They also have some incredibly smart people! I just don't see Nato and the US allowing Ukraine to lose.
Just on the Ukraine war and my claim that Ukraine has lost: You cannot get an accurate picture if you only read the mainstream media, which has really lost any claim to objective reporting on US-led wars and did so over 30 years ago. Of course you should read it but not only it. When you look around, it's not hard to find independent media and journalists who are giving a much different narrative. Here's a report from a couple days ago by Zain Raza, based in Germany, who is interviewing Canadian journalist Dmitry Lasciris: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_ai4XyQV9A
Another really important story, almost non-existent in the MSM, is the US blowing up the Nordstream pipeline. Here's Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeffrey Sachs addressing the UN on the matter a week ago (his testimony starts at 5:25): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4E0yoIuzCHg
Good article by Roach. He's got form & shouldn't be dismissed lightly. And a great comment by JS who, with skin in the game, calls the baddies to win. No offence JS but I hope you're wrong.
Yes, the US has let things slide on the production front (Wall St greed) as well as on the family front. And what liberal politicians are doing to the nuclear family is criminal & they should be ....... for their efforts. The same thinking has left many middle-type nations bewildered for the want of a better word. It gets harder to get your global friends to back you when you allow all sorts weird & stupid stuff to carry on. Many want to follow the Yanks but they look at what's going on & are allowing to transpire & think... really?
Once upon a time, in my lifetime, God did bless America. I'm not so sure he's that keen about what he sees happening today & so I'm guessing, He might have let the blessing lapse.
Would be nice if the leaders of those seeking war actually physically led there armies from the frontline in war instead of from an armchair perhaps they might then feel differently about engaging in such an activity. The UN clearly has been a dismal failure . Is it inevitable that a war to end all wars lay in the not so distant future ? ...Likely mankind will never be satisfied until extinction...I cannot imagine even a 1 world policy lasting without turmoil...Heres to those that will not brandish arms against any other ...they are most deserving of longevity, unfortunately it is likely they will be branded cowards and imprisoned or murdered when the time comes..... to fight the enemy . The enemy of mankind ..... the homosapien ...the wise man... whom might yet prove to be the dumbest creature ever to walk upon the earth... lol
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