Stephen Roach

Warnings from the global trade cycle
29 Jan 19, 10:05am
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Stephen Roach warns that rising protectionism could spark a surprisingly swift deterioration in global economic conditions. The global trade cycle is facing major stress in 2019 and downward revisions have just begun
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In defense of the Fed
27 Dec 18, 9:02am
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Stephen Roach congratulates the US Fed for the courage to commit to normalising interest rate. He says there is simply no other way to break the US economy's 20yr dependence on asset bubbles
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An agenda for resolving the US-China conflict
24 Nov 18, 12:56pm
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Stephen Roach urges both countries' leaders to focus on four issues when they meet at the upcoming G20 summit. A real deal is unlikely but here is a checklist to judge any accord reached
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America's inflation risks
23 Oct 18, 9:50am
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Stephen Roach points to global and domestic factors aligning to push up US prices faster than the Fed may expect, vexing everyone in an interconnected world
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The trade wars of codependency
26 Sep 18, 11:37am
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Stephen Roach notes that while China is changing, or at least attempting to do so, America remains stuck as a deficit saver with the need to draw on global surplus saving to support economic growth
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The Current Account counts
28 Aug 18, 9:57am
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Stephen Roach says as China shifts to a consumption-based economy, it will become less willing to finance American deficits. A lack of savings will expose the US painfully just as its budget deficits explode
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QE turns 10
31 Jul 18, 9:01am
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Stephen Roach spells out five lessons from a decade of quantitative easing policies by central banks
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When politics trumps economics
27 Jun 18, 2:00am
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Stephen Roach thinks current US trade, tax and spending policies constitute a classic case of imperial overreach
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A bilateral foil for America's multilateral dilemma
4 Jun 18, 1:14pm
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Stephen Roach explains the political appeal of the Trump Administration's nonsensical approach to trade with China
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America's weak case against China
26 Apr 18, 12:04pm
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Has US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer made an ironclad case against China in his so-called Section 301 report? Stephen Roach thinks not, calling it wide of the mark in key areas
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China, as seen from a glass house
22 Mar 18, 5:00am
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Stephen Roach sees a China that knows what it has to do, and an America with a serious leadership deficit. Accountability for failure won't be able to be avoided
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The myth of sound US fundamentals
28 Feb 18, 5:02am
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Stephen Roach says look at the real nature of the US savings-short economy to understand why 'momentum' won't carry it far, and why a tariff wall won't help
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How to lose a trade war
28 Jan 18, 7:30am
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Stephen Roach thinks trade wars are for losers and that Chinese retaliation against US trade sanctions will almost certainly cause America far more damage
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Complacency will be tested in 2018
16 Dec 17, 9:09am
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Stephen Roach says the world is set up for the unwinding of three mega-trends: unconventional monetary policy, the real economy’s dependence on assets, and a potentially destabilizing global saving arbitrage
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