Stephen Roach warns that rising protectionism could spark a surprisingly swift deterioration in global economic conditions. The global trade cycle is facing major stress in 2019 and downward revisions have just begun More...
Stephen Roach congratulates the US Fed for the courage to commit to normalising interest rate. He says there is simply no other way to break the US economy's 20yr dependence on asset bubbles More...
Stephen Roach urges both countries' leaders to focus on four issues when they meet at the upcoming G20 summit. A real deal is unlikely but here is a checklist to judge any accord reached More...
Stephen Roach points to global and domestic factors aligning to push up US prices faster than the Fed may expect, vexing everyone in an interconnected world More...
Stephen Roach notes that while China is changing, or at least attempting to do so, America remains stuck as a deficit saver with the need to draw on global surplus saving to support economic growth More...
Stephen Roach says as China shifts to a consumption-based economy, it will become less willing to finance American deficits. A lack of savings will expose the US painfully just as its budget deficits explode More...
Has US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer made an ironclad case against China in his so-called Section 301 report? Stephen Roach thinks not, calling it wide of the mark in key areas More...
Stephen Roach sees a China that knows what it has to do, and an America with a serious leadership deficit. Accountability for failure won't be able to be avoided More...
Stephen Roach says look at the real nature of the US savings-short economy to understand why 'momentum' won't carry it far, and why a tariff wall won't help More...
Stephen Roach thinks trade wars are for losers and that Chinese retaliation against US trade sanctions will almost certainly cause America far more damage More...
Stephen Roach says the world is set up for the unwinding of three mega-trends: unconventional monetary policy, the real economy’s dependence on assets, and a potentially destabilizing global saving arbitrage More...