If Labour was relying on the first televised leaders debate to turn the tide of public opinion this election, they will need to go back to the drawing board.
National’s Christopher Luxon was comfortable, well-prepared, and wasn’t rattled by pressure from Labour’s Chris Hipkins.
It is for voters at home to choose a winner, not media commentators, but there wasn’t a standout moment that would obviously decide it one way or another.
The first debate is the big one, almost a million people tune in, but the understanding among political strategists is that debates don’t decide elections.
Evidence from the US is clear, and a cursory analysis of the past four elections suggests it isn’t a game-changer in New Zealand either — none appear to have impacted the polls.
However, there are few opportunities to change public sentiment this late in the game and the televised debates can be used as a platform to make a splash in front of a million eyes.
The most notable example was Peter Dunne’s United Future climbing from less than 1% in the polls to 6.7% on election night, after a strong showing in a leaders’ debate.
David Lange was thought to have won a televised leaders’ debate during the 1984 campaign, an election he went onto win.
And commentators often point to John Key’s famous “show me the money” line from the 2011 election as being decisive, although it didn't noticeably shift support between the two parties.
Luxon un-Chipped
Hipkins did go on the offensive, calling into question Luxon’s honesty and asking tough questions about the implications of some National party policies.
But none of these attempts really stuck, and Luxon was able to get out responses sufficient to defuse the attacks.
The National Party leader only needed a draw to win and seemingly got one. He played the part of ‘statesman with solutions’ well enough to not lose any votes.
Both leaders appeared taken aback by an early question about how they would respond to a hypothetical scenario in which China invaded Taiwan.
Here, Chris Hipkins’ experience in the job allowed him to give a strong answer.
For a minute, we weren’t at a debate but instead listening to the Prime Minister of New Zealand defusing a question that came with authentic geopolitical risk.
Chinese diplomats in New Zealand will be noting the question and its responses in reports back to Beijing. Luxon answered second and parroted Hipkin’s answer, it’d have been interesting if he had to answer first…
Economic health crimes
Luxon opened his remarks by arguing that this election was “about the economy” but didn’t talk about it much. His biggest wins were on health and crime policy.
Labour’s goal to reduce prisoners by 30% would’ve been great, he said, if only it had come with a 30% reduction in the number of crimes committed as well.
But he was embarrassed by the moderator telling the audience the previous National Party boot camp policy had an 83% failure rate.
Hipkins took the opportunity to say Labour’s rehabilitation programme had an 80% success rate — one point to the red team.
Luxon correctly diagnosed that a shortage in doctors, nurses, and dentists was the biggest challenge for the hospital system, while Hipkins was stuck on the defensive.
“The best time to build a new medical training school was six years ago, but the next best time is tomorrow,” the National leader said. One point to the blue team.
A nation of homeowners
TVNZ’s Jessica Mutch-McKay opened a segment on housing with this introduction:
“1-in-3 kiwi households are renters. It's a sobering statistic for a country whose national identity has historically been tied with home ownership,” she said.
Hipkins and Luxon revealed they were just 24 years old when they bought their first homes; something that would be near-impossible for most people in their early twenties today.
Both men agreed that building more houses was the only way to bring down house prices.
Hipkins was asked whether it was “okay” that so many people were renters...
“No. We need to be a nation of homeowners, not a nation of renters,” he answered.
“We are seeing an accumulation of landlords, we are getting more and more mega-landlords now. Christopher Luxon and the National Party’s priority is to give them tax breaks”.
Here Hipkins does manage to score a direct hit. He turned and asked Luxon directly if he could guarantee that landlords would pass on the benefits of the tax cut.
Luxon: “What I guarantee is that you won’t see a…”
Hipkins: “It's a pretty simple question.”
Luxon: “You’re not putting any downward pressure on…”
Hipkins: “I think that’s a no”.
That’s a wrap
Perhaps the most memorable element will be the similarity (and banality) of some of their answers. Both leaders had almost identical questions to yes/no the quickfire questions.
When asked what they admire about each other, both said they respected the other's family values and willingness to take on a tough job.
When asked to name their favourite book, Luxon picked a self-help book about tennis and Hipkins said he didn’t read anymore... Inspiring stuff.
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