In the three weeks between election day and the release of the final vote count, many thought Christopher Luxon had succeeded in stopping leaks about coalition negotiations.
But it increasingly seems that there simply wasn’t much to leak. The trio of right-leaning political parties weren’t really negotiating at all.
When the clock struck midnight on October 14, now more than a month ago, everybody understood that New Zealand First would be needed in Government.
And yet, coalition talks did not begin in earnest until all votes had been counted and the final results were published two weeks ago.
Luxon let on as though talks were proceeding behind the scenes during those three weeks and that a government could form shortly after the writ was returned.
Peter Dunne, a political commentator, told Interest.co.nz National could’ve started sounding out NZ First even before election day — with polls showing the party would be needed.
Two weeks was not an unreasonably long time for talks, he said, but it was frustrating for the public who had been told it would be completed quickly.
An online poll conducted by Talbot Mills found 60% of New Zealanders thought it was taking too long to form a government. There was a 4.9% margin of error, but only 22% were happy.
Once negotiations did kick into gear, the veil of secrecy Luxon had cast began to slip. A steady stream of public comments and private leaks have offered quite a lot of insight into the talks.
Here’s an non-exhaustive list of things that have been reported in the media:
- The parties are renegotiating National’s flagship tax plan, because NZ First opposes allowing foreign buyers back into the housing market.
- The Act Party has been insisting on its Treaty of Waitangi referendum, but the parties might have come up with an alternative way to lessen its importance in law.
- Luxon had thought he could get a deal done in time to go to APEC this week and gave draft offers to Act and NZ First last Friday. This only succeeded in offending Winston Peters and causing him to form an alliance with David Seymour.
- Peters skipped a three-party meeting earlier this week and met up with Singapore’s foreign minister instead. Luxon and Seymour were forced to travel to Auckland to meet the smallest party leader on his terms.
- Seymour has hinted that all three parties are likely to sit around the cabinet table in a full coalition arrangement — although this hasn’t been confirmed.
- A list of Northland-specific issues have been raised, including the possibility of reopening the Marsden Point oil refinery and a Whangarei dry dock.
- ACT has been pushing for deeper cuts to the public service staff numbers and NZ First wants a broader fast-track consent process for all types of infrastructure.
Comments made Friday suggest the three parties are getting earnestly close to a deal, despite the rocky start, and they are expected to continue talks through the weekend.
Dunne said there was a risk the bumpy landing would cement a perception that Luxon is not able to control his government, and that view could stick throughout the full term.
It might start to look like a National-managed coalition, instead of a National-led government.
Apparently the subject of deputy Prime Minister and other portfolios was raised in the Friday meetings.
Seymour leads the largest support party, and therefore has the strongest claim, but hasn’t expressed a strong interest in doing the job.
On the other hand, Peters has done it before and would likely enjoy doing so again.
I’ve no insight into who will get the gig, but Nicola Willis is the best candidate by a mile.
Giving her the job would be a stamp of authority on Luxon’s National-led government and force the other two blokes to tamp down their egos.
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