The Coalition Government plans to spend $12 billion over the next four years to modernise the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) and prepare for a possible confrontation with China.
A long-awaited Defence Capability Plan, published on Monday, outlined $9 billion of new capital and operational spending over the next four years. This uplift was expected to continue until spending reaches 2% of gross domestic product in 2032.
New Zealand’s defence spending has hovered around or below 1% in recent decades.
“Global tensions are increasing rapidly, and New Zealand has stepped up on the world stage, but our current defence spending is simply too low,” Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said in a statement.
The capability plan looks 15 years ahead but is focused on critical investments needed in the next four years. It aims to boost deterrence with long-range strike weapons, sync NZ equipment with Australian and American allies, and explore drone and space technology.
Defence Minister Judith Collins said the NZDF had been subjected to 35 years of cuts and underfunding which had resulted in a “hollowed-out middle” in its personnel. The plan includes a workforce strategy and upgrades to the housing estate, but not new money for salaries.
The largest investments are in the naval force with $2 billion earmarked to replace its fleet of helicopters which operate from the Navy’s two frigates, which will receive $600 million in additional maintenance to extend their use into the 2030s.
Significant spending will also go into aerospace, which includes traditional airforce and emerging space security. The largest individual investment, at up to $1 billion, will be in replacing the Boeing 757s used to carry personnel and freight on operations, as well as civilian diplomatic missions.
Another up to $600 million will be spent on unspecified space capabilities, $50 million on a system to knock down drones, and up to $300 million on an unmanned surveillance plane.
Infantry will get up to $1 billion for new vehicles, $600 million for communication equipment, and $50 million for upgraded Javelin anti-tank missiles. A similar amount of money will be spent on cyber security and information technology.
Key to the capability plan will be upgrading the NZDF’s ability to use long-range missile strikes to deter aggression. This may cost up to $300 million and include putting more weapons on existing aircraft and frigates, or looking at land-based strike weapons.
New Zealand has a very large maritime zone it is expected to defend and monitor, with one of the largest exclusive economic zones in the world. It also has defence obligations around Tokelau, Niue, and the Cook Islands.
The defence plan explicitly points to a conflict between China and the United States as the risk, saying it was the most likely theatre of war in the Indo-Pacific region.
“China’s assertive pursuit of its strategic objectives is the principal driver for strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific, and it continues to use all of its tools of statecraft in ways that can challenge both international norms of behaviour and the security of other states,” it said.
“Of particular concern is the rapid and non-transparent growth of China’s military capability".
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