Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his foreign affairs advisers have a catchphrase for the shifting geopolitical landscape:
“Rules are giving way to power; economics to security; and efficiency to resilience,” they say.
That shift is bad news for New Zealand, which has relied on global trade and security norms to level the playing field despite its small size.
It wants a world governed by clear international rules that promote economic efficiency through free trade. Instead, it sees powerful countries bullying weaker ones, and many economies turning inward in response.
In a speech at a security conference in India, the Prime Minister said “sadly” the world could no longer assume countries would respect the UN Charter or national sovereignty.
His comments were aimed at Russia and China, but have gained new relevance after the United States launched an unprovoked attack on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities.
Few want Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. But does the rules-based order permit military force to stop them?
The New Zealand government has declined to take a position. It noted the US claims the strike was consistent with the UN Charter and has called for dialogue over escalation.
Keep schtum
It’s a careful way to avoid openly criticising President Donald Trump for what international law experts say was likely an illegal strike on Iran.
Donald Rothwell, a professor of international law at the Australian National University, said endorsing the attack set a troubling precedent. States could now justify preemptive strikes against anything vaguely threatening.
He pointed to Japan, which has been expanding its capacity to launch missile counter-strikes against China or North Korea in a future conflict.
But what if China believes those weapons might be used offensively, not defensively? Does the UN Charter permit a preemptive strike to eliminate them?
A recent real-world example is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. One of its many (dubious) justifications was that Ukraine was developing the capability to strike Russia in the future.
President Vladimir Putin framed the “special military operation” partly as a preemptive move to prevent a NATO-backed invasion someday in the far future.
Was that permissible under international law? Luxon says absolutely not.
“Russia's war in Ukraine is utterly illegal. It disrespects national sovereignty. It disrespects international law and democratic ideals, and that's why we're standing with Ukraine,” he told reporters on Monday.
But the Prime Minister couldn’t—or wouldn’t—explain how Russia’s invasion differed, legally, from the United States’ strike on Iran, beyond noting it was less targeted.
One possible answer is that the rules don’t apply to the US and its allies as clearly as they do to its adversaries. Which would make the rules-based order look like a joke.
From values to compliance
Perhaps New Zealand’s own foreign policy is shifting from rules to power. The current US administration does not take criticism well, and New Zealand’s strategy appears to be staying out of sight and out of mind.
That may be a sound tactical move to get through the next four years. But it risks undercutting future speeches about the importance of the rules-based order.
Luxon was just in China, where he repeatedly stressed his willingness to air disagreements — predictably, and respectfully. But is he equally willing to confront differences with the United States?
New Zealand now has a security partner that appears to have abandoned the rules-based order, and a trade partner that never truly believed in it.
Developed democracies in Europe and Asia may still believe in the rules but they are unable to enforce them if the two superpowers don’t play ball. Without a rules-based system to shield it from coercion, New Zealand faces growing pressure to align with a superpower.
Ministers insist they aren’t pressured by China or the United States on defence or economic decisions. But that’s not true.
The US expects developed democracies to help build a strong military presence to deter China from taking Taiwan or coercing its neighbours. China, in turn, wants them to stay out of its way in exchange for access to its consumer market and manufacturing capabilities.
Geographic necessity
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth told attendees, including New Zealand’s defence minister Judith Collins, at the Shangri-La security conference that Asian countries should view China as a threat, not an economic opportunity.
“We know that many countries are tempted by the idea of seeking both economic cooperation with China and defense cooperation with the United States. Now that is a geographic necessity for many. But beware the leverage that the CCP seeks with that entanglement. Economic dependence on China only deepens their malign influence and complicates our defense decision space during times of tension,” he said.
Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, the Philippines and Thailand are all countries Hegseth may have had in mind.
China has signalled to New Zealand that the trading relationship is stable—for now. But that could change if New Zealand joins anything related to AUKUS.
Su Xiaohui, deputy director of a think-tank linked to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told Politik that joining the pact would be “decisive” for the NZ–China relationship.
“Every country can make its own choice, of course, but if you choose to join in the framework, like AUKUS, it is kind of different for the relationship and for the strategic structure of the region,” she said
After Luxon met with senior Chinese leaders, state media praised New Zealand’s ability to “balance its relationships” and navigate “geopolitical complexities with independence and flexibility.”
It reads like a warning not to upset the status quo. But that decision may no longer be New Zealand’s to make.
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