While a State of Emergency soaked the Capital and kept most Wellingtonians indoors on Tuesday, the atmosphere inside Parliament was volatile. What began as a morning of frantic sprinting through the corridors ended with a Prime Minister calling a vote of his own National Party MPs to confirm confidence in his leadership, even as the backdrop of economic confidence continued to slide.
Inside the Halls of Power
While much of the city was advised to stay home, the halls were buzzing - no one was skipping today. Journalists braved the storm donned in raincoats and relatively useless umbrellas from early in the morning, asking MPs in an attempt to gain an insight into what was happening with the National Party leadership - occasionally checking up if their own homes had flooded.
Following Monday’s post-Cabinet press conference, a large question mark hung over Chief Whip Stuart Smith after reporting in the NZ Herald that he had attempted to contact Luxon about leadership concerns.
Luxon had said Smith had not reached out to him, and that if there were issues, Smith would have raised them when they were together early last week.
At 9.25am, 20 minutes before the party usually take questions from media on their way into the National Party caucus meeting, a statement was received from Smith via the PM’s office.
“I am not attending caucus today due to a longstanding personal appointment. I did want to confirm that I did not contact the PM or his office seeking a meeting. I am disappointed by recent speculative media coverage.”
Luxon and Chris Bishop had spent the last couple of days pelted with questions that this statement could have answered when the report first surfaced last Friday.
Then, at 9.48am, when the Prime Minister is usually standing in front of media on a Tuesday, the press gallery found out he would be available after caucus, instead of before. The wait began. Tension was high and no one knew when the media stand up would be. Parliament isn’t always structured and press conferences can occasionally happen with little-to-no notice. If you’re not there, you’re not doing your job.
At the second hour minds were cast back to the lengthy wait following Todd Muller’s departure back in 2020, when the Press Gallery spent hours waiting for the announcement for Judith Collins to become leader. Funnily enough, Collins was the first to exit the meeting on Tuesday, just telling journalists she was off to see the NZ Herald’s Audrey Young.
Then Speaker Gerry Brownlee enters the picture - heading into the caucus room. This is not a usual sight and could indicate an important vote of some sort or potentially someone calling on his advice.
Later, Luxon and Willis exited the room - without the rest of their colleagues. Instead of coming out to the waiting media scrum, they head off in another direction. Reporters started running, most diverting down a set of stairs in an attempt to catch leadership to ask questions somewhere in Parliament's endless corridors. Breathless, and with nothing to show for it, the gallery headed back up to the waiting spot.
Finally, at 1pm, almost three hours later, Luxon emerged in front of the waiting media stand up.
National had a “good, honest discussion”, and he moved a formal motion of confidence in his leadership, Luxon said.
(The timing couldn't have been more unfortunate for Stuart Smith. As Chief Whip, his job is to maintain party discipline and count the numbers in the House - yet the man responsible for counting the numbers was absent during a vote of confidence).
“That motion was passed confirming what I have been saying, I have the support of caucus as their leader,” Luxon said.
Then, an interesting maneuver by Luxon to take a swipe at the media.
If the media want to keep focusing on speculation and rumour, I am not going to engage. Kiwis expect the media to ask us the tough questions about our policies, to hold us to account for our pledges to New Zealanders, and to interrogate us about the things that matter to them. They are not interested in this media soap opera - Luxon.
This was after various reports of concern within the party’s own ranks, while the party struggled to pull itself out of a period of bad polling.
Luxon did not stick around for questions, he left that to join his party on their way into Question Time. Willis explaining that by convention, National always has a secret ballot with anonymous votes, when asked if the vote was unanimous.
One for all, all for one. And when the caucus, by majority, have confidence in the leader, then we all stand together, backing the leader. That is the decision the caucus made emphatically today - Willis.
Luxon’s coalition partner NZ First leader Winston Peters, asked about the National Party confidence vote margin, answered: “if you don’t have an idea, I do”. Asked to elaborate on what the margin was: “Excuse me, I'm not answering those questions. It's not my caucus.”
Bishop said he voted in confidence of Luxon. The most regrettable part was the “briefing to the media anonymously by any number of people… that is really untidy and really unhelpful and destructive of morale and confidence in the caucus.”
“And so there was a very clear message given in the caucus by a lot of people, actually, to stop doing that, and I'm confident it will stop now.”
What happens now
Part of Luxon’s two minute statement focused on the uncertainty and the volatility of the world, underscoring the importance of strong economic management. And while Luxon dismissed the morning's events as a media soap opera, the real-world data painted a sobering backdrop.
Released while Luxon's confidence vote meeting was taking place, annual inflation remained at 3.1% in the March quarter for the second consecutive quarter, continuing to be a touch above the Reserve Bank’s 1% to 3% target range, and landing on the higher side of economists’ projections.
Higher petrol prices were the largest contributor to the quarterly inflation rate, up 3.5%.
At the same time, business confidence plummeted, with only net 1% of firms expecting the economy to improve, down from net 39% just last quarter. NZIER's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion for the March quarter suggested the Middle East war poses risk to NZ’s fragile economic recovery, but there had only been a 'modest lift' in firms raising prices so far.
And then there’s polling.
While the constant whir of internal polling rarely sees public daylight, the next Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll looks likely to be released in early May.
It could be the first public snapshot of whether Luxon's leadership gauntlet actually restored New Zealanders' confidence, or if the caucus vote just provided him temporary shelter from the rain.
2 Comments
Willis made a great point, if National did change leader would National polling change.... I doubt it
The polls are bullshite
One had NZ First at 15% the next 10%
they are really a waste of time, the election is the poll of choice for real NZers. Hippy has no policy but a dead rat called pay equity to eat
Winnie is eating everyone's lunch with real polices, perhaps that's why his is doing ok in the polls, if he lives to the election.
NZ in general still thinks the media is too woke and is just still full of tova jessica tove jessica BS
President Truman, himself blighted by contradictions and questionable self image, famously coined “if you can’t stand the heat, then get out of the kitchen.” Unfortunately in Mr Luxon’s case, no one has even turned on the oven, as far as the forthcoming election campaign is concerned.
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