Climate Change Commission says infrastructure, nature and bioeconomy, funding and community wellbeing are areas of significant risk as it releases 2026 National Climate Change Risk Assessment

New Zealanders are facing shifting and intensifying climate-related pressures and climate change is not business-as-usual hazard management, a report from the Climate Change Commission says.

On Thursday, the commission released its 2026 National Climate Change Risk Assessment report. This looks at current and future risks the country faces, which in turn allows the Government to make decisions and take action through the national adaptation plan.

Its chief executive, Jo Hendy, said as the climate continues to warm, climate hazards are expected to become more severe and widespread.

“This will narrow the adaptation options available to communities and sectors and increase the level of risk that cannot be avoided.”

The report highlighted the country's most significant climate-based risks, and these are:

• Key infrastructure: Water infrastructure, buildings, road and rail networks
• Communities and safety: Social and community wellbeing, emergency management, ngā mea hirahira o te ao Māori - risks in the Māori world
• Nature and the bioeconomy: Ecosystems and biodiversity, and forestry
• Decisions and funding: Central and local government funding, decision-making and delivery

“They are risk areas that are already seriously affecting people, or will soon and take time to prepare for, and they are the ones where acting soon can have the biggest influence on many other risks," the Commission said.

“Many of the most significant risks relate to systems that support people’s quality of life and economic resilience: like roads and railways, drinking water, and natural resources. Effective adaptation to reduce those risks will depend on strengthening the country’s underpinning structures and tools - such as funding and financing systems, trust in democratic institutions, social connections and wellbeing.”

Hendy said focusing on where risk is highest and impact greatest, while getting the basics right, can create a co-ordinated plan strengthening NZ’s resilience.

'If we don't act, costs could run into the billions and affect every part of people's lives'

The Commission says addressing climate change challenges can deliver benefits strengthening the economy, society and NZ's environmental foundation.

Investing attention and resources into; "carefully prioritised adaptation action would substantially reduce future costs and losses associated with climate change,” the report said.

“Acting to strengthen the country’s underpinning structures and tools – such as funding and financing systems, trust in democratic institutions, social connections and wellbeing – will be important to support the adaptation needed for climate change.”

Hendy said focusing effort and investment on a few key things would have much wider benefits and help bring the overall cost down. An example she used was buildings and flooding. According to the report, approximately 556,000 buildings are currently exposed to inland flooding, with a combined replacement value of $235 billion.

“If we build homes that can cope with floods and extreme weather, we’re not just protecting the building, we’re protecting people’s health, keeping essential services running, and helping keep those homes insurable,” Hendy said.

“If we don’t act, costs could run into the billions and affect every part of people’s lives.”

“By getting it right at the national level, and turning our focus to building climate resilience, we can break the cycle of react and recover,” Hendy said.

“We currently have an imbalance where 97% of government spend is on responding to natural hazards and only 3% on building resilience.”

A lot of effort often goes into recovery and while this mattered, it couldn’t come at the expense of making things more resilient, Hendy said.

The Climate Commission delivers these reports every six years and the Minister of Climate Change, Simon Watts, is required to respond within two years of the report’s publication with a new national adaptation plan.

'Adaptation a key priority for the Government'

Asked about the report, Watts said: "We recognise the significant risks climate change poses, and we are already seeing those impacts across New Zealand."

He referred to the National Adaptation Framework and said the Government was progressing "a range of work across the planning system, emergency management, and local government to give us an enduring system that prepares New Zealand for the impacts of climate change, while keeping costs to our society as low as possible".

"Adaptation is a key priority for the Government."

The Government would now be considering the commission's findings, he said, as it develops the next national adaptation plan over the next two years.