'You have to manage the costs quite brutally': With census changes coming to a halt, Statistics NZ is still expected to carry out a census in 2028, something a former Government Statistician says could be done despite funding concerns

A former Government Statistician says it’s possible for Statistics New Zealand to carry out a census in 2028, one that is smaller and has fewer questions. 

Len Cook, who was Government Statistician from 1992 to 2000, told RNZ on Thursday the data agency could work out what’s needed and what other information could come from administrative records and surveys.

And Stats NZ could also look at what's being done overseas in places like Canada and Australia when it comes to non-response and censuses, he said.

“For example, you could use AI. You could take any area of the country, use all the data we've got, and work out what's the likelihood of non-response. Forecast the non-response rate and manage your enumeration strategy, tailor it to that area. That's what the Australians are doing next week with their census.” 

Cook’s comments come after the Government’s attempt to make major changes have come to a halt. 

Earlier in the year, the Government introduced the Data and Statistics (Census) Amendment Bill, which aimed to move NZ from having a census every five years to an annual approach that draws on existing data, targeted data collection and a smaller annual survey. Existing data would be data that’s already being collected by government agencies.

Alongside the Data and Statistics (Census) Amendment Bill, the Government was also planning to progress legislation which would change the timing of electoral boundary reviews. Because the census is every five years, this triggers a look at electoral boundaries every five years - if the law is left as is, then this would trigger a review of electoral boundaries every year.

As these plans would change what’s called “reserved provisions” under the Electoral Act 1993, the Government needed a 75% majority to pass these changes. While both bills passed their first reading with support from National, Labour, Act and NZ First.

Labour has since pulled its support with its statistics spokesperson Lemauga Lydia Sosene telling interest.co.nz on Monday that as it stands, the Government's proposal "carries too much risk of Māori, Pacific, ethnic and disability communities slipping under the radar."

‘They’ll need to get on with that job’

Without Labour's support and with limited House time before the election, Statistics Minister Scott Simpson would no longer seek to progress the bills to a second reading during the current Parliamentary term.

He told reporters on Tuesday that plans to change the census were an initiative that came out of Stats NZ. 

“It’s been in ferment for several years now, and for Labour not to support it in the eleventh hour is disappointing but not unexpected.”

Asked what would happen if National is re-elected into government, Simpson said it would become a priority for the new Parliament. 

“Statistics New Zealand have a statutory obligation to prepare a census for 2028 and given that we’re not able to pass legislative change in this Parliament, they’ll need to get on with that job.”

Asked whether Stats NZ had the budget to do that, Simpson said “no, they don’t”.

A Decision paper published in 2025 from Stats NZ said “The 2028 Census appropriation, which represents the funding available for running the census, is $227.120 million (1 July 2024 to 30 June 2029).”

But if Stats NZ kept the same model it used in 2023 for the 2028 census, the current funding would be $100 million less than what the data agency received to deliver the 2023 census. 

In a Regulatory Impact Statement, publicly released in June 2025, it said: “Declining initial census response rates mean the direct costs required to duplicate the 2023 Census model would be higher still for the next census, estimated at $400 million over five years.” 

‘You have to manage the costs quite brutally’

Asked how it would be possible for Stats NZ to prepare for Census 2028 due to funding issues, Cook said Finance Minister Nicola Willis would have to find the appropriate money.

However, he did raise concerns about the estimated figure for the 2028 census, saying the 2023 census cost twice as much per person compared to any other census done in NZ. 

“I just think that something has gone wrong with the way people have thought about it. You have to manage the costs quite brutally. You have to imagine you've got Bill Birch or Ruth Richardson on your shoulder, frankly, when you're planning and running a census.”

Asked what sort of amount should be found by the Finance Minister to run the 2028 census, Cook said he would start by looking at what was spent on censuses before 2023 and he would also look at an extra premium for thinking about the field activity. 

Slimming down the census or using AI would still require money and when that was put to Cook, he told RNZ that the country could either wait until 2031 and bring ourselves in line with Australia or have a smaller census in 2028. 

Cook would prefer waiting for 2031 “but if the legislation can’t be changed, then I’m afraid I think you can deliver it.”

‘Some obvious fiscal pressures’

On Tuesday, Labour leader Chris Hipkins said Labour did not support removing the census in its entirety at this point. 

“We’re very concerned about the gaps that’s going to leave in data. We’re open. We recognise that there’s a need for modernisation here but what the Government are currently proposing of just abolishing censuses and relying on administrative data potentially leaves too many holes, particularly around issues like homelessness.”

He said until Labour had seen a; “credible plan fulfilling what will be significant holes in the data available through our official statistics, we don’t support removing the census."

Asked about Stats NZ’s situation with funding and preparations for a 2028 census, Hipkins said: “Those questions around how to manage that sit with the current government up until the election, and that’s something we will look at after the election should we be the government.”

Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said the party’s statistics spokesperson, Lemauga Lydia Sosene, had been having “constructive discussions” with the Minister. 

“We need to discuss where our position is in caucus. But the good thing is that there is that discussion happening because we are really clear that there are some obvious fiscal pressures.”

“The clear thing for us is we don’t want to make a change that then results in a bottle of very valuable data, that’s really important to decision making, not just by government but by a whole lot of other actors in the economy disappearing. And so we want to know that those gaps can be filled," Hipkins said.

‘Prepared to meet our statutory obligations under any future scenario’

Last Friday, the Justice Committee published its report on the Data and Statistics (Census) Amendment Bill and considered it alongside the Electoral (District Boundaries) Amendment Bill.

Following the release of the report, Stats NZ said while there is general support for modernising the census, "there are a number of questions that Stats NZ will need to address.”

The data agency would work with the Minister of Statistics, partners, customers, and communities to address the questions raised in the Committee’s report, it said.

“The proposed modernised census approach is dependent on legislative change. Until the future legislative framework is confirmed, the current requirements remain in place, including the requirement for Stats NZ to deliver a census in 2028.”

“Stats NZ is undertaking planning work to understand what a 2028 Census could look like if that becomes necessary,” the data agency said.

Government Statistician and Stats NZ chief executive Colin Lynch said: “I will ensure we are prepared to meet our statutory obligations under any future scenario.”