Mount Albert, Hutt South, Wellington Bay and the Māori seats could be key seats to watch in the November 7 election

Almost a third of the country's electorate seats are considered genuinely competitive, according to Curia Market Research owner and former National staffer David Farrar, who has begun profiling electorate seats heading into the election. 

"There's at least 12 general electorate seats which are going to be quite competitive. There may end up being more. The 12 are 12 National-held seats. All three Green-held seats could also be regarded as marginal, Tamaki held by ACT - marginal," Farrar said.

"There's probably a good 16 general electorate seats to keep an eye on, and I think every Māori electorate, except [Labour-held Ikaroa-Rāwhiti] is really interesting and potentially in play because of the implosion of Te Pāti Māori. 

"So probably one in three electorates will be really interesting to follow."

Mount Albert

Mount Albert - which will have Labour incumbent Helen White, National's Melissa Lee, Green Party MP Ricardo Menéndez March and Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong - would be one of the interesting seats. 

Farrar thought it would be unlikely for Wong to win polling as high as the party is now - the last 1News poll had Opportunity on 8%. The Parliamentary threshold is 5%.

"That may make it harder for Q to win that seat because when you're likely to get the big tactical vote is when you have them at 4% and people might think, 'well, that's wasted vote, we don't want that vote to be wasted'. But with them polling over 5% you wouldn't have that tactical imperative."

"What I do see is a fascinating four-way race because the Green candidate Ricardo did pretty well last time. You've got Labour's Helen White who won by 20 votes... And Melissa Lee, who's been an MP in that area for I think six terms now, and it's not impossible if you have a three-way split on the left. Melissa Lee could come through."

Hutt South

Political commentator and former Labour staffer Esther Robinson will be watching Hutt South.

"Hutt South has long been a bellwether seat. [National's] Chris Bishop won it by 1,332 votes in 2023 and has himself acknowledged that he may not retain it. The new boundaries bring in Newlands and shift the electorate modestly to the left, making Labour’s Ginny Andersen a strong prospect to win it back."

Former Minister Peter Dunne said Hutt South would be an interesting seat.

"What will the fallout will be for Chris Bishop and that electorate? Always going to be a tough one for him to hold. Has his position been strengthened or weakened?"

"I suspect it's been weakened a bit by the events of the recent recent days," Dunne said in reference to National's leadership vote last week.

Farrar said Bishop has a great reputation, but Wellington's "a centre-left city."

"Even if he gets one in four, one in five Labour voters voting for him, which would be quite extraordinary... that might not be enough. Where the two parties are on the party vote I think will be a big factor in Hutt South."

Wellington Bays

Farrar said he was fascinated by Wellington Bays.

"I think Labour has a better chance there. First of all, [CTU economist] Craig Renney, who is highly thought of from the hard left on the party."

"In fact, people say if Labour loses, you could see Michael Wood and Rennie becomes leader and finance [spokesperson]. He is not highly ranked on the list, so he has to win that seat, and that does give you a real incentive," Farrar said.

"[Green MP] Julie Anne [Genter] did very well winning it last time. The boundaries have shifted. It's hard to know, because both Labour and Greens do so well in that area, how much of an effect that has. But that might help Labour a bit more because the new area that's come in won't have Julie Anne as their incumbent MP."

Māori electorates

Robinson would also be watching the Māori seats, "which could be strategically important to the composition of Parliament and the prospects of the left bloc."

"In 2023, many Māori-electorate voters split their votes, giving Labour their party vote while supporting Te Pāti Māori candidates at the electorate level. That helped Te Pāti Māori win six electorate seats despite receiving just over 3% of the nationwide party vote, creating an overhang in Parliament.

"Internal divisions within Te Pāti Māori have now changed that landscape. Te Tai Tokerau and Te Tai Tonga are particularly unpredictable because former Te Pāti Māori MPs are contesting against the party’s official candidates.

"Waiariki is also worth watching. It is held by Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, who won by nearly 16,000 votes in 2023. However, he now faces a more crowded contest involving Labour’s Toni Boynton, the Greens’ Tania Waikato and Opportunity’s Pāpā Wharewera. The key question is whether Te Pāti Māori’s internal turmoil materially erodes Waititi’s previously commanding support."