About
bnzeconomists
Latest articles
US Treasuries respond to latest round of data and push though the 2.8% mark to close at 2.83%; their highest levels since July 2011
US Treasuries respond to latest round of data and push though the 2.8% mark to close at 2.83%; their highest levels since July 2011
Local economic data (consumer confidence, retail sales, house sales, and manufacturing PMI) means above-trend GDP growth a risk
Local economic data (consumer confidence, retail sales, house sales, and manufacturing PMI) means above-trend GDP growth a risk
NZ swap rates up 7-12 bps as the steepening bias continues
Markets are responding to the prospects of the Fed tapering rather than focusing on the positive economic and growth data
Markets are responding to the prospects of the Fed tapering rather than focusing on the positive economic and growth data
Bond yields up across the board by 6-10 bps; New issue of $300 mln worth of 2020 government bonds today
Bond yields up across the board by 6-10 bps; New issue of $300 mln worth of 2020 government bonds today
Low interest rates plus a buoyant housing market boosts Q2 Retail Sales and gives NZ$ a boost; NZ$/A$ back near 88c
Low interest rates plus a buoyant housing market boosts Q2 Retail Sales and gives NZ$ a boost; NZ$/A$ back near 88c
Positive data out of the US and Germany sees key bond yields rise; nothing on the cards to derail NZ yields from following suit
Positive data out of the US and Germany sees key bond yields rise; nothing on the cards to derail NZ yields from following suit
Upbeat US retail figures is one of the drivers behind the stronger US$ however, speculative buying in US$/JPY looks to be the more dominant factor
Upbeat US retail figures is one of the drivers behind the stronger US$ however, speculative buying in US$/JPY looks to be the more dominant factor
Australian pre-election economic and fiscal outlook combined with NAB business confidence survey may confirm market expectations of future RBA activity
Australian pre-election economic and fiscal outlook combined with NAB business confidence survey may confirm market expectations of future RBA activity
BNZ sees further appreciation in NZ$/A$ cross rate as relative growth, commodity price and interest rate trajectories favour the NZ$
4
BNZ sees further appreciation in NZ$/A$ cross rate as relative growth, commodity price and interest rate trajectories favour the NZ$
Peripheral European spreads to German bonds have crept down to their lowest points since the second half of 2011
Peripheral European spreads to German bonds have crept down to their lowest points since the second half of 2011
Market relieved Chinese data dump failed to provide any nasty surprises; Industrial production was seen growing 9.7%y/y (8.9% expected)
Market relieved Chinese data dump failed to provide any nasty surprises; Industrial production was seen growing 9.7%y/y (8.9% expected)
Market pricing in 80bps of OCR hikes in the year ahead amd 150bps of hikes in the coming two years
3
Market pricing in 80bps of OCR hikes in the year ahead amd 150bps of hikes in the coming two years
Swathe of Chinese economic updates will certainly test the strength of risk sentiment and investor appetite for NZ$/US$
Swathe of Chinese economic updates will certainly test the strength of risk sentiment and investor appetite for NZ$/US$
Fed speaker Pianalto says with the US unemployment rate at 7.4% and inflation at 1.3%y/y “we still have a way to go”
Fed speaker Pianalto says with the US unemployment rate at 7.4% and inflation at 1.3%y/y “we still have a way to go”
Bank of England (BoE) releases quarterly inflation report and stated it doesn't intend to raise rates until unemployment dips below 7.0%
Bank of England (BoE) releases quarterly inflation report and stated it doesn't intend to raise rates until unemployment dips below 7.0%
Receding fears about NZ dairy exports have seen the NZ$/US$ climb back above 0.7900 and the NZ$/A$ back at 0.8800
3
Receding fears about NZ dairy exports have seen the NZ$/US$ climb back above 0.7900 and the NZ$/A$ back at 0.8800
Positive news that China has not imposed a blanket ban on NZ dairy products aids NZ$ recovery
Positive news that China has not imposed a blanket ban on NZ dairy products aids NZ$ recovery
Negative sentiment following Fonterra’s contamination announcement likely to exert downward pressure on NZ yields
Negative sentiment following Fonterra’s contamination announcement likely to exert downward pressure on NZ yields
NZ$ to remain under pressure until confidence in NZ dairy sector restored
NZ$ to remain under pressure until confidence in NZ dairy sector restored
Bonds now more responsive to data than Fed rhetoric; US 10-year yields moved up sharply from 2.60% to 2.69%
Bonds now more responsive to data than Fed rhetoric; US 10-year yields moved up sharply from 2.60% to 2.69%
Equity market stronger across the board and no matter where you looked July manufacturing PMI data impressed coming in above expectations
Equity market stronger across the board and no matter where you looked July manufacturing PMI data impressed coming in above expectations
Outright yields and spreads between LGFA and NZ Govt Stock equivalents appear attractive
Outright yields and spreads between LGFA and NZ Govt Stock equivalents appear attractive
Change in Fed’s language was subtle but it did throw a bone to the doves; market still uncertain about QE tapering timeline
Change in Fed’s language was subtle but it did throw a bone to the doves; market still uncertain about QE tapering timeline
Borrowers should not rely on pull-backs in yield being deep or prolonged as higher rates are expected by year-end and beyond
Borrowers should not rely on pull-backs in yield being deep or prolonged as higher rates are expected by year-end and beyond