Stuart Talman

A mixed US jobs report: jobs growth softer, average hourly earnings stronger. Equities down, bond yields down, crude up, gold up, US dollar down

A mixed US jobs report: jobs growth softer, average hourly earnings stronger. Equities down, bond yields down, crude up, gold up, US dollar down

Yield on the Fed sensitive US 2-year bond pierces 5%, logs fresh 16-yr high. White-hot ADP and strong ISM Services PMI adds to hawkish central bank narratives

Yield on the Fed sensitive US 2-year bond pierces 5%, logs fresh 16-yr high. White-hot ADP and strong ISM Services PMI adds to hawkish central bank narratives

RBA keeps cash rate on hold at 4.10% but maintains tightening bias. Equities mixed, bond yields up, crude down, gold up, US dollar down

RBA keeps cash rate on hold at 4.10% but maintains tightening bias. Equities mixed, bond yields up, crude down, gold up, US dollar down

NZD logs modest gain to start the new week. US ISM manufacturing falls for 8th month, further into recessionary territory. Subdued price action expected in offshore trade

NZD logs modest gain to start the new week. US ISM manufacturing falls for 8th month, further into recessionary territory. Subdued price action expected in offshore trade

Nasdaq logs best first half in over 40 years, gaining close to 40% on AI frenzy. Fed's preferred inflation measure, PCE softer-than expected but still elevated. Eurozone inflation also softer

Nasdaq logs best first half in over 40 years, gaining close to 40% on AI frenzy. Fed's preferred inflation measure, PCE softer-than expected but still elevated. Eurozone inflation also softer

Strong US GDP and claims data catapults US bond yields, 2-yr tracking to 5%. Market participants weighing up economic resiliency vs central bank aggression

Strong US GDP and claims data catapults US bond yields, 2-yr tracking to 5%. Market participants weighing up economic resiliency vs central bank aggression

China steps in to defend USDCNY 7.25 level via aggressive fixing. Risk sentiment improves amid the release of strong US data. Equities up, bond yields up, crude down, gold down, US dollar down

China steps in to defend USDCNY 7.25 level via aggressive fixing. Risk sentiment improves amid the release of strong US data. Equities up, bond yields up, crude down, gold down, US dollar down

Markets trade with a cautious tone, awaiting more key inflation data. Equities down, bond yields down, crude up, US dollar down. NZD finds support and improves in subdued trade

Markets trade with a cautious tone, awaiting more key inflation data. Equities down, bond yields down, crude up, US dollar down. NZD finds support and improves in subdued trade

Soft PMIs: manufacturing contracts further, services growth slowing. US equity markets end their winning streak amid sentiment shift. NZD extends lower

Soft PMIs: manufacturing contracts further, services growth slowing. US equity markets end their winning streak amid sentiment shift. NZD extends lower

A flurry of central bank activity ensues to counter recent hot inflation reads. Bank of England and Norges Bank deliver non-consensus 50bps hikes

A flurry of central bank activity ensues to counter recent hot inflation reads. Bank of England and Norges Bank deliver non-consensus 50bps hikes

Powell's 2-day testimony kicks-off, hawkish comments persist - more hikes. US equity markets dismiss Fed hawkishness, recover early session losses. US bond yields and the dollar fall although risk rally appears to be faltering

Powell's 2-day testimony kicks-off, hawkish comments persist - more hikes. US equity markets dismiss Fed hawkishness, recover early session losses. US bond yields and the dollar fall although risk rally appears to be faltering

Further China stimulus fails to boost risk sentiment, NZD & AUD struggle. US equity bulls may be exhausted, quarter-end profit taking emerging

Further China stimulus fails to boost risk sentiment, NZD & AUD struggle. US equity bulls may be exhausted, quarter-end profit taking emerging

Following the Q2-2023 risk rally mean reversion may be the trade heading into Q3-2023. Risk assets flash exhaustion signals ascending into overbought territory

Following the Q2-2023 risk rally mean reversion may be the trade heading into Q3-2023. Risk assets flash exhaustion signals ascending into overbought territory

US stocks log modest losses but Nasdaq extends winning streak to 8th week. Not too hot, not too cold data-flow & Fed expectations drive key stocks higher

US stocks log modest losses but Nasdaq extends winning streak to 8th week. Not too hot, not too cold data-flow & Fed expectations drive key stocks higher

Fed on hold but with hawkish dot-plots: 12 of 18 FOMC officials call for at least 2 more hikes. US equities and risk assets initially sell-off then recover after Powell's presser

Fed on hold but with hawkish dot-plots: 12 of 18 FOMC officials call for at least 2 more hikes. US equities and risk assets initially sell-off then recover after Powell's presser

US CPI broadly in-line, core inflation rises at slowest rate since November 2021. Implied probability of Fed 25bps hike falls from 20%+ to ~5%. A hot UK employment report locks in BoE hikes, 5%+ rate expected

US CPI broadly in-line, core inflation rises at slowest rate since November 2021. Implied probability of Fed 25bps hike falls from 20%+ to ~5%. A hot UK employment report locks in BoE hikes, 5%+ rate expected

Risk sentiment positive ahead of pivotal events, US equities extend higher. Market pricing assigns a ~25% implied probability of Fed hike on Thursday

Risk sentiment positive ahead of pivotal events, US equities extend higher. Market pricing assigns a ~25% implied probability of Fed hike on Thursday

Nasdaq logs 7th consecutive week of gains, S&P500 fourth straight. Expectations of a Fed pause/skip & AI frenzy emboldens stock bulls

Nasdaq logs 7th consecutive week of gains, S&P500 fourth straight. Expectations of a Fed pause/skip & AI frenzy emboldens stock bulls

Weekly US initial jobless claims data spikes to a 20-month high, US dollar softer. Yields decline, tech stocks rally, as market dials back Fed hike expectations. Eurozone economy slips into a technical recession on weak GDP print

Weekly US initial jobless claims data spikes to a 20-month high, US dollar softer. Yields decline, tech stocks rally, as market dials back Fed hike expectations. Eurozone economy slips into a technical recession on weak GDP print

Fed officials & Timiraos signal the Fed “skip”. Rates likely on hold on 14 June. US ISM Manufacturing PMI contractionary for seventh consecutive month. Eurozone CPI delivers encouraging downside miss. ECB remains hawkish

Fed officials & Timiraos signal the Fed “skip”. Rates likely on hold on 14 June. US ISM Manufacturing PMI contractionary for seventh consecutive month. Eurozone CPI delivers encouraging downside miss. ECB remains hawkish

China PMIs disappoint, manufacturing falling to its lowest level in 5 months. US debt ceiling deal to be voted on in the House after market close. USD firmer via safe haven flows, strong JOLTS data, hawkish Fed-speak

China PMIs disappoint, manufacturing falling to its lowest level in 5 months. US debt ceiling deal to be voted on in the House after market close. USD firmer via safe haven flows, strong JOLTS data, hawkish Fed-speak

US PCE prints stronger than expected probability of a Fed hike above 60%. And US debt ceiling deal agreed; next step is to pass legislation through Congress

US PCE prints stronger than expected probability of a Fed hike above 60%. And US debt ceiling deal agreed; next step is to pass legislation through Congress

RBNZ shocks with dovish hike; sudden declaration of cycle-end at 5.50%. Risk sentiment continues to deteriorate as debt ceiling impasse draws on. UK CPI shocker - core CPI climbing to new cycle high; BoE must hike more

RBNZ shocks with dovish hike; sudden declaration of cycle-end at 5.50%. Risk sentiment continues to deteriorate as debt ceiling impasse draws on. UK CPI shocker - core CPI climbing to new cycle high; BoE must hike more

Stalling US debt ceiling negotiations fray the market’s nerves, risk assets retreat. PMI’s indicate further divergence between manufacturing & services activity

Stalling US debt ceiling negotiations fray the market’s nerves, risk assets retreat. PMI’s indicate further divergence between manufacturing & services activity

Biden & McCarthy to meet this morning. Markets remain sanguine but volatility could spike should debt ceiling talks stall. Bar has been set high for RBNZ surprise following last week’s rates repricing

Biden & McCarthy to meet this morning. Markets remain sanguine but volatility could spike should debt ceiling talks stall. Bar has been set high for RBNZ surprise following last week’s rates repricing