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Stuart Talman
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Debt ceiling negotiations stall as Biden attends G7 summit, resumes Monday. Fed chair Powell less hawkish than Fed colleagues, inflation still too high
Debt ceiling negotiations stall as Biden attends G7 summit, resumes Monday. Fed chair Powell less hawkish than Fed colleagues, inflation still too high
Risk sentiment positive on improving debt ceiling narrative, equities climb. Hawkish Fed-speak supports higher bond yields and a higher US dollar. Market re-thinking the probability of a Fed pause; odds for 25bps growing
Risk sentiment positive on improving debt ceiling narrative, equities climb. Hawkish Fed-speak supports higher bond yields and a higher US dollar. Market re-thinking the probability of a Fed pause; odds for 25bps growing
Plans put in place to facilitate US debt ceiling deal. Biden cuts short foreign travel plans. Risk assets rally, S&P500 nears important re-test level, Nasdaq at 9mth high
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Plans put in place to facilitate US debt ceiling deal. Biden cuts short foreign travel plans. Risk assets rally, S&P500 nears important re-test level, Nasdaq at 9mth high
Risk sentiment negative as market participants await debt-ceiling progress. Weak activity data out China adds to the underwhelming re-opening story. AUD underperforms
Risk sentiment negative as market participants await debt-ceiling progress. Weak activity data out China adds to the underwhelming re-opening story. AUD underperforms
Risk sentiment positive amid hopes of positive debt ceiling negotiations. History informs volatility could spike in the days ahead should talks stall
Risk sentiment positive amid hopes of positive debt ceiling negotiations. History informs volatility could spike in the days ahead should talks stall
US consumer sentiment plummets as inflation expectations climb. Despite debt ceiling impasse US equities remain near top of prevailing ranges. Market jitters likely this week if congressional leaders fail to make progress
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US consumer sentiment plummets as inflation expectations climb. Despite debt ceiling impasse US equities remain near top of prevailing ranges. Market jitters likely this week if congressional leaders fail to make progress
Risk sentiment frayed; banking, debt ceiling and growth concerns persist. US equity indexes & other risk assets struggle to break out of current ranges. Bank of England delivers widely expected 25bps hike, GBP weakens
Risk sentiment frayed; banking, debt ceiling and growth concerns persist. US equity indexes & other risk assets struggle to break out of current ranges. Bank of England delivers widely expected 25bps hike, GBP weakens
US inflation for April in line with consensus: core inflation at 5.5% YoY. “X-date” looms: US debt ceiling impasse set to fray the market’s nerves. US equities and other risk sensitive assets probe the top of prevailing ranges
US inflation for April in line with consensus: core inflation at 5.5% YoY. “X-date” looms: US debt ceiling impasse set to fray the market’s nerves. US equities and other risk sensitive assets probe the top of prevailing ranges
US headline jobs growth & average hourly earnings stronger. US stocks rebound. Bullard (non-voter): recession is not the base case, soft landing back in play
US headline jobs growth & average hourly earnings stronger. US stocks rebound. Bullard (non-voter): recession is not the base case, soft landing back in play
US bond yields notably higher to start the week, supporting a firmer dollar. Dollar index setting up for key topside breakout. Will a hawkish Fed assist?
US bond yields notably higher to start the week, supporting a firmer dollar. Dollar index setting up for key topside breakout. Will a hawkish Fed assist?
US equity markets extend higher following impressive week for tech behemoths. Japanese yen crunched as new BoJ Governor Ueda maintains policy settings
US equity markets extend higher following impressive week for tech behemoths. Japanese yen crunched as new BoJ Governor Ueda maintains policy settings
NZ 1Q CPI below 7% for first time in three quarters; still too high for comfort. NZD softer against major peers, largest decline vs AUD; falls over ¾ percent. US equities, yields dollar fall amidst multiple softer than expected data
NZ 1Q CPI below 7% for first time in three quarters; still too high for comfort. NZD softer against major peers, largest decline vs AUD; falls over ¾ percent. US equities, yields dollar fall amidst multiple softer than expected data
NZD tracks sideways replicating Tuesday’s range, starts near 62 US cents. UK CPI remains above 10%; additional 25bps BoE hike locked in
NZD tracks sideways replicating Tuesday’s range, starts near 62 US cents. UK CPI remains above 10%; additional 25bps BoE hike locked in
NZD modestly higher in muted trade, climbs back through 62 US cents. Strong China activity data indicative of further re-opening momentum. Hot UK wages growth adds to the BoE’s case for a 25bps hike in May
NZD modestly higher in muted trade, climbs back through 62 US cents. Strong China activity data indicative of further re-opening momentum. Hot UK wages growth adds to the BoE’s case for a 25bps hike in May
US bond yields & the dollar advance as bets firm for another 25bps hike. US dollar index basing, forms double bottom near 101.00 – further upside?
US bond yields & the dollar advance as bets firm for another 25bps hike. US dollar index basing, forms double bottom near 101.00 – further upside?
NZD aggressively U-turns, plunging from above 63 USc to end week near 62 USc. US bond yields & the dollar advance as Waller says Fed has more work to do. The Fed, bond market and equity market are at odds, which outlook is correct?
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NZD aggressively U-turns, plunging from above 63 USc to end week near 62 USc. US bond yields & the dollar advance as Waller says Fed has more work to do. The Fed, bond market and equity market are at odds, which outlook is correct?
US bond yields & the dollar advance as pricing firms for a 25bps Fed hike. Is Powell or bond market right – will the Fed be forced to cut rates in 2H?
US bond yields & the dollar advance as pricing firms for a 25bps Fed hike. Is Powell or bond market right – will the Fed be forced to cut rates in 2H?
NZD catapulted to 7 week highs near 0.6380, U-turns back below 63 USc. RBNZ delivers shock 50bps hike, worried about persistently high inflation. Soft ADP Employment & ISM Services PMI dents risk sentiment
NZD catapulted to 7 week highs near 0.6380, U-turns back below 63 USc. RBNZ delivers shock 50bps hike, worried about persistently high inflation. Soft ADP Employment & ISM Services PMI dents risk sentiment
US bond yields and the dollar retreat following soft jobs opening data. RBA pauses, keeps cash rate on hold at 3.60%, NZDAUD rips higher
US bond yields and the dollar retreat following soft jobs opening data. RBA pauses, keeps cash rate on hold at 3.60%, NZDAUD rips higher
US equities extend higher; Nasdaq logs largest quarterly gain since 2Q 2022. Softer-than-expected PCE data add weight to the Fed pausing in early May
US equities extend higher; Nasdaq logs largest quarterly gain since 2Q 2022. Softer-than-expected PCE data add weight to the Fed pausing in early May
Banking turmoil now in the rear-view, focus turns back to macro data flow. China PMIs, eurozone inflation, US PCE, may deliver lively action today. Month-end and quarter-end flows could also contribute to volatility
Banking turmoil now in the rear-view, focus turns back to macro data flow. China PMIs, eurozone inflation, US PCE, may deliver lively action today. Month-end and quarter-end flows could also contribute to volatility
Risk assets push higher amidst a deafeningly quiet newsflow. Yields bounce from last week’s lows, but further strength may derail the risk rally
Risk assets push higher amidst a deafeningly quiet newsflow. Yields bounce from last week’s lows, but further strength may derail the risk rally
Banking sector concerns ease, producing an air of calm. US equity markets indecisive, yet to buy into the all-is-clear narrative. Rates markets move to partially price out 2H 2023 Fed rate cuts
Banking sector concerns ease, producing an air of calm. US equity markets indecisive, yet to buy into the all-is-clear narrative. Rates markets move to partially price out 2H 2023 Fed rate cuts
Deutsche Bank concerns dent risk sentiment before US stocks rebound. Banking sector news flow, not macro data, the key directional influencer. US flash PMIs: services sector strong, manufacturing recessionary
Deutsche Bank concerns dent risk sentiment before US stocks rebound. Banking sector news flow, not macro data, the key directional influencer. US flash PMIs: services sector strong, manufacturing recessionary
Risk assets rebound. S&P500 propelled higher from 200-day moving average. Bank of England hikes by 25bps, as expected. NZDGBP bounces off 5mth lows
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Risk assets rebound. S&P500 propelled higher from 200-day moving average. Bank of England hikes by 25bps, as expected. NZDGBP bounces off 5mth lows