Stuart Talman

UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse alleviates some concern, risks remain. AT1 bond concerns will add to bank funding costs, lifting recession odds

UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse alleviates some concern, risks remain. AT1 bond concerns will add to bank funding costs, lifting recession odds

NZD the strongest G10 performer for the week. Bond market volatility persists, yields plummet amidst baking turmoil. Banking sector concerns will continue to influence sentiment

NZD the strongest G10 performer for the week. Bond market volatility persists, yields plummet amidst baking turmoil. Banking sector concerns will continue to influence sentiment

ECB prioritises inflation fight over financial stability, hikes by 50bps. Weak 4Q NZ GDP & strong AUS jobs may signal turning point for NZDAUD. Swiss National Bank delivers $50 billion lifeline for Credit Suisse

ECB prioritises inflation fight over financial stability, hikes by 50bps. Weak 4Q NZ GDP & strong AUS jobs may signal turning point for NZDAUD. Swiss National Bank delivers $50 billion lifeline for Credit Suisse

Global bond yields and EU/UK equities plummet as fear levels jump. EUR crunched as ECB’s pre-committed 50bps hike seems unlikely

Global bond yields and EU/UK equities plummet as fear levels jump. EUR crunched as ECB’s pre-committed 50bps hike seems unlikely

US CPI data in-line with consensus forecast – Fed likely to favour 25bps. Powell’s tough decision: inflation fight or financial stability support?

US CPI data in-line with consensus forecast – Fed likely to favour 25bps. Powell’s tough decision: inflation fight or financial stability support?

Bailout time – US regulators step-in to stave off SVB & Signature collapses. Mammoth rates market re-pricing

Bailout time – US regulators step-in to stave off SVB & Signature collapses. Mammoth rates market re-pricing

Silicon Valley Bank collapse roils markets. US jobs report mixed: jobs growth stronger, unemployment higher. S&P500 logs worst week since September

Silicon Valley Bank collapse roils markets. US jobs report mixed: jobs growth stronger, unemployment higher. S&P500 logs worst week since September

Day 1 of Powell’s testimony sends clear hawkish message – Fed will keep hiking. RBA delivers expected 25bps hike, dovish statement suggests pause upcoming

Day 1 of Powell’s testimony sends clear hawkish message – Fed will keep hiking. RBA delivers expected 25bps hike, dovish statement suggests pause upcoming

US ISM Services PMI stronger than expected – no recessionary signs. US treasury yields fall, stocks rise as the week ends with a 2-day risk rally. US jobs numbers and Powell’s testimony are the weeks’ major events

US ISM Services PMI stronger than expected – no recessionary signs. US treasury yields fall, stocks rise as the week ends with a 2-day risk rally. US jobs numbers and Powell’s testimony are the weeks’ major events

Bond yields continue to rise, US ten-year extends higher through 4.00%. Eurozone inflation stronger than expected adding to sticky inflation concerns

Bond yields continue to rise, US ten-year extends higher through 4.00%. Eurozone inflation stronger than expected adding to sticky inflation concerns

Stronger than expected China PMIs propel China-sensitive assets higher. US ISM Manufacturing PMI adds to stick inflation concerns. 10yr trades 4.00%

Stronger than expected China PMIs propel China-sensitive assets higher. US ISM Manufacturing PMI adds to stick inflation concerns. 10yr trades 4.00%

US equities claw back some of Friday’s losses, but look vulnerable. Higher for longer the market’s current headwind. Bond market the key driver

US equities claw back some of Friday’s losses, but look vulnerable. Higher for longer the market’s current headwind. Bond market the key driver

More hot inflation data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – PCE, hot. US dollar supported by US bond yields continuing to track higher

More hot inflation data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – PCE, hot. US dollar supported by US bond yields continuing to track higher

RBNZ delivers 50bps, update viewed as hawkish given peak rate @ 5.50%. Kiwi rips higher versus the Aussie, NZDAUD looks to be basing

RBNZ delivers 50bps, update viewed as hawkish given peak rate @ 5.50%. Kiwi rips higher versus the Aussie, NZDAUD looks to be basing

US equity markets start the holiday shortened week under pressure. Bond yields extend higher, US10yr poised to break back up through 4%

US equity markets start the holiday shortened week under pressure. Bond yields extend higher, US10yr poised to break back up through 4%

US data continues to run hot – PPI at 7 mth high fuelling sticky inflation concern. FOMC non-voter Mester delivers hawkish comments, 50bps hike still considered. Despite rising yields & good data/bad data dynamic, equities remain near highs

US data continues to run hot – PPI at 7 mth high fuelling sticky inflation concern. FOMC non-voter Mester delivers hawkish comments, 50bps hike still considered. Despite rising yields & good data/bad data dynamic, equities remain near highs

Another white-hot US data point – retail sales the highest since March 2021. UK CPI falls further than expected, but remains in double digits, GBP falls

Another white-hot US data point – retail sales the highest since March 2021. UK CPI falls further than expected, but remains in double digits, GBP falls

US CPI delivers a little for the hawks, a little for the doves, price action choppy. UK wages growth remains strong, requiring the BoE to tighten further

US CPI delivers a little for the hawks, a little for the doves, price action choppy. UK wages growth remains strong, requiring the BoE to tighten further

US equities and risk assets start the week on positive note ahead of US CPI. The next 24 hours likely to deliver a material directional move

US equities and risk assets start the week on positive note ahead of US CPI. The next 24 hours likely to deliver a material directional move

The disinflation trade loses momentum, risk assets continue to pullback. Tech rally stalls – Nasdaq logs first losing week since late December. The market’s next big test this week – January US CPI

The disinflation trade loses momentum, risk assets continue to pullback. Tech rally stalls – Nasdaq logs first losing week since late December. The market’s next big test this week – January US CPI

RBA delivers a hawkish update, hikes by 25bps to 3.3%, signals more to come. Fed Chair Powell’s speech today’s main event, followed by Biden's State of the Union address

RBA delivers a hawkish update, hikes by 25bps to 3.3%, signals more to come. Fed Chair Powell’s speech today’s main event, followed by Biden's State of the Union address

Strong US jobs numbers force a re-think, Fed funds futures peek above 5%. Is this the start of another fierce US dollar rally?

Strong US jobs numbers force a re-think, Fed funds futures peek above 5%. Is this the start of another fierce US dollar rally?

Central bank bonanza delivers +25bps from the Fed, +50bps from the ECB (and BOE). US equities extend higher on narrative the Fed is almost done, soft lading hopes

Central bank bonanza delivers +25bps from the Fed, +50bps from the ECB (and BOE). US equities extend higher on narrative the Fed is almost done, soft lading hopes

Markets may continue to drift sideways before the action heats up tomorrow after the US Fed decisions. Ahead of that US equities pullback from highs, trading with caution

Markets may continue to drift sideways before the action heats up tomorrow after the US Fed decisions. Ahead of that US equities pullback from highs, trading with caution

US equities pullback from highs, trading with caution ahead of big events. Australian retail sales & China PMIs the focus during today's Asian session

US equities pullback from highs, trading with caution ahead of big events. Australian retail sales & China PMIs the focus during today's Asian session