Interest rates will fall in 2026 only if the economy fails to pick up steam AND inflation falls from here. The combination seems unlikely as we start the new year. More likely, savers will be in demand

US jobs data soft ahead of payrolls report; US trade data weaker; China property declines; German factory orders jump; air cargo rises fast except in the US; UST 10yr at 4.18%; gold on hold; oil firms; NZ$1 = 57.5 USc; TWI-5 = 61.5

Desmond Lachman identifies the main risks that could drag down the US president's favourite economic indicator

Barfoot & Thompson's sales and selling prices were both lower in December on seasonality factors but lower prices ate into their mountain of stock as both sellers became more realistic, and more townhouses became available

US hiring weak, job openings at 14 month low; US services PMIs differ; China to follow loose monetary policy; Australia CPI dips; UST 10yr at 4.14%; gold dips from highs; oil down at 5yr lows; NZ$1 = 57.8 USc; TWI-5 = 61.8

'Open electricity' to offer greater competition and choice for consumers from September, government says

We look at the forces that will influence our borrowing interest rates in 2026. Some of the significant ones are out of our local control, but others are not