Breakfast briefing; Bitcoin touches new record high

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US inflation expectations rise; Taiwan exports rise; Australian rooftop solar its milestone; bitcoin hits record high; UST 10yr 1.50%, oil and gold higher; NZ$1 = 71.7 USc; TWI-5 = 75.4

9th Nov 21, 7:25am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the bitcoin price has hit a new all-time record high about two hours ago.

But first, US consumer inflation expectations are rising, for the year ahead at least. Consumer prices are now expected to be +5.7% higher in a year, but 'only ' +4.1% higher in three years.

While most analysts see the American economy growing at close to a +5% rate in Q4-2021, the data seems to be pointing to a much better result.

Meanwhile, there was a US Treasury 3yr bond auction today with US$163 bln offered where the Fed took a massive US$32 bln (compared to just US$4 bln at the previous event). Still the balance was well supported. The resulting median yield was 0.69% pa, up from 0.60% at the prior event a month ago.

Although they slipped slightly from September, Taiwan's exports grew strongly again in October, with the fastest rises being with the US and EU. However, exports to mainland China still dominate their trade even if the growth across the Taiwan Strait is tailing off. Taiwan's import growth is dominated by oil.

In China, all eyes are on the CCP's big event in Beijing. But concerns are growing over their Delta spread, and the property developer bond default situations still linger. Industry activity is slowing, in fact fast enough for the iron ore price to fall faster, now that order volumes are falling too.

In Australia, new data shows that their rooftop solar installations now exceed 3 mln delivering almost 16 gigawatts of capacity. Solar-sourced electricity now accounts for 38% of demand on their national electricity market. Electricity prices are staying high and driving this demand, because ageing coal-fired plants are being removed from their electricity networks.

In Australia, Delta cases in Victoria have risen to 1126 cases reported there yesterday. There are now 16,178 active cases in the state and there were another 5 deaths yesterday. In NSW there were another 187 new community cases reported yesterday with 2,898 active locally acquired cases, and they had another 7 deaths yesterday. Queensland is reporting another new case. The ACT has 13 new cases. Overall in Australia, more than 81% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 8% have now had one shot so far.

The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.50% and up +4 bps since this time yesterday. The US 2-10 rate curve starts today unchanged at +105 bps. And their 1-5 curve is steeper at +99 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also steeper at +144 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is up +4 bps at 1.78%. The China Govt ten year bond is up +1 bp at 2.92%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is down -1 bp at 2.53%.

In equity markets, Wall Street started their Monday session with a small rise, but it has since slipped into negative territory in early afternoon Monday trade. Overnight, European markets were flat, although Paris rose +0.2%. Yesterday, Tokyo fell -0.4%, Hong Kong also fell -0.4%, but Shanghai rose +0.2%. The ASX200 ended flat, but the NZX50 ended down -0.3%.

The price of gold will start today at US$1824/oz and another +US$6 rise from this time yesterday and a two month high.

And oil prices are firmer too at just on US$81/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$83/bbl. Both represent about a +US$1 gain.

The Kiwi dollar opens today +½c firmer at just over 71.7 US. Against the Australian dollar we are also firmer at 96.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up to 61.9 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 75.4 and equaling a four year high.

The bitcoin price has risen sharply overnight, and now at a record high US$66,052 and a +6.3% jump. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been high at just over +/-3.6%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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104 Comments

by bw | 9th Nov 21, 7:35am 1636396525

(Very sensible, Cameron Bagrie)

"We need better balance and a data dictated… economic base dependent on wellbeing including housing and education outcomes…. The Government has done really well supporting the economy by running expansionary fiscal policy and spending money. But that sugar candy economics does not deliver an enduring economic base….tough economic choices are coming down the pipeline, the age of sugar candy economics needed to end." he said.

by powerdownkiwi | 9th Nov 21, 7:44am 1636397044

And we all know what sugar is.........

Add into the mix the future of cities;

https://by-my-solitary-hearth.net/2021/11/05/but-cities/

then ask where the remaining icing should be spread?

by Rob Reid | 9th Nov 21, 9:10am 1636402239

Really interesting read. I think the writer's vision of where most of us are headed is about right - dispersing again. Is already fortuitously happening to a small degree 'cause COVID.

I mentioned the coming energy crisis to mainstream thinking friends recently and they were like "there are clever people who will solve this, there is always an answer, play the game and get 'rich' on property so you can afford to get hold of whatever is left for your life-time, etc". FFS.

by Noncents | 9th Nov 21, 9:18am 1636402715

The clever people don't solve it, they survive it better than the rest.

by murray86 | 9th Nov 21, 9:33am 1636403619

Unusual for an economist but this is where he nails it "The Government has done really well supporting the economy by running expansionary fiscal policy and spending money. But that sugar candy economics does not deliver an enduring economic base." His reference to 'sugar candy economics" is apt when they are careless about where the money they printed goes. Political arrogance, and gutless expediency will be what lies behind much of this as we have discussed on occasions in the past, about conversations that should be occurring but aren't and the Government fails to ensure that money created to support the economy gets spent in a way that builds resilience, but instead gets frittered away to to a lack of controls and regulation. Any adult and a lot of kids could explain the consequences of unrestrained or undirected spending on a limited budget!

by Foxglove. | 9th Nov 21, 8:39am 1636400368

“money created to support the economy……” how about too money created to support the people. One unquestionable fact is that covid has exposed the extreme neglect of NZ’s hospital and health services by successive governments. Surely addressing this must be a priority now. Instead $40 billion allocated to a highly uncertain viability airport rail link for Auckland and heaven knows how much for a pie in the sky new jet airport in Central Otago. Ask the people. Would they sooner have these grandiose and vainglorious projects or hospitals and suchlike, that are accessible, professional and efficient. NZ has to wake up and demand a stop to this squandering of the public purse at both national and local level.

by Pietro | 9th Nov 21, 9:00am 1636401622

The argument used against this, is that ‘there are different budgets’. But when you’re starving, you’ll quickly empty the holiday fund. I would say, Prioritise, fix, move on. Health is top of the list. But we need to beware of bureaucracy, the mechanism that statists use to suck the life out of society. The MOH is a prime example of a poorly functioning bureaucracy, more concerned with form (forms) than function. As an aside, Labour lost my very wavering vote when it proposed that cycling bridge across the harbour. Talk about tone deaf.

by Foxglove. | 9th Nov 21, 9:09am 1636402199

Aye describing that & the wage freeze threat on nurses etc in the midst of a pandemic, as imbecilic would be the understatement of the year so far, that is.

by linklater01 | 9th Nov 21, 3:26pm 1636424799

Foxglove,

For personal reasons, I am now taking a keen interest in Pharmac, having been diagnosed with cancer a few months ago. It turns out that the only treatment which can help is a combination of two drugs available in many countries, but not funded here. For many , the cost would simply be out of reach condemning them to an early death. I am well aware of how fortunate i am to be able to afford them.

My oncologist reckons that we're 20 years behind in the funding of cancer drugs and a 2019 report by the International Comparisons of Modern medicines ranked NZ last among OECD countries for both access to funded medicines and pharmaceutical investment overall. this is shameful.

by Foxglove. | 9th Nov 21, 4:06pm 1636427167

appreciated. had my battle with same some six years ago but a much more straightforward case I would think. again with insurance, a quick diagnosis & an excellent surgeon. my family has worked in NZ’s health industry for over thirty years. During that time, that experience, it has been left in every government’s too hard basket. My favourite old axiom of Kipling’s “TheThin Red Line” is well played out in this arena. This government is little different but they are in the seat now, at a time where denial of severe shortcomings is now impossible, and the onus is on them to act accordingly with the responsibility entrusted to them as our government to implement provision of reliable and meaningful hospital and healthcare, for all of us. Start building it up now in other words.

by chebbo | 9th Nov 21, 7:43am 1636397027

I can't help but think that future generations are going to be learning about Bitcoin as a cautionary tale.

by Foxglove. | 9th Nov 21, 7:47am 1636397263

You mean like we learnt at school & subsequent, about the South Sea Bubble?

by chebbo | 9th Nov 21, 7:47am 1636397237

Basically, yes. A lesson in irrational exuberance.

by LASSET | 9th Nov 21, 9:15am 1636402520

I think it's much more likely future generations will be using bitcoin (whether they realise it or not). They'll be reading about how it came to prominence because the financial system was terribly mismanaged for decades.

by Galloleous | 9th Nov 21, 9:44am 1636404256

But but , 2017 was the ObVIoUs BuBbLE! or was it 2013? or 2011?

https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

by VTHO | 9th Nov 21, 10:36am 1636407365

"This time is different" - this time, it will peak and go down to zero!!

by powerdownkiwi | 9th Nov 21, 7:47am 1636397220

With suitable background music

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcSlcNfThUA

by Galloleous | 9th Nov 21, 9:40am 1636404016

https://www.swanbitcoin.com/bitcoins-energy-usage-is-not-a-problem-here…

You should love Bitcoin, its all about Energy...

Podcast if you prefer is here

by frazz | 9th Nov 21, 7:49am 1636397370

Really...not endless money printing?

by VTHO | 9th Nov 21, 7:59am 1636397941

Always nice to see someone here who gets it Frazz.

by frazz | 9th Nov 21, 7:59am 1636397972

Ditto....I am sure some of this site pray pray every morning for a BTC dump

by chebbo | 9th Nov 21, 8:03am 1636398195

Zimbabwe and Weimar Germany are already in the textbooks under the subject of money printing, but we won't be, and neither will most of the developed world, because that's not what we're doing. We are monetising debt, which is not the same thing, and doesn't result in monetary inflation the likes of which people think they're hedging against with Bitcoin.

by frazz | 9th Nov 21, 8:06am 1636398406

"doesn't result in monetary inflation"...cough cough...excuse me but are you an economist by any chance?

by donny11 | 9th Nov 21, 8:16am 1636398974

Monetising debt increases the broad money supply which is inflationary.

by chebbo | 9th Nov 21, 8:25am 1636399528

It also creates a liability on the other side of the ledger. When the debt is repaid the money is removed from circulation. It is not at all inflationary in the same way as simply printing money. If it was, inflation would be through the roof globally, given the staggering amount of QE we've collectively embarked on over the past decade.

by powerdownkiwi | 9th Nov 21, 8:44am 1636400640

But inflation HAS gone through the roof.

Put house prices into your 'weighted basket' and see what you get.

And by orders of magnitude.

by chebbo | 9th Nov 21, 8:50am 1636401026

That's price inflation, which isn't the same as monetary inflation, and doesn't erode the value of the dollar.

by scarfie | 9th Nov 21, 9:12am 1636402346

Yes it is. One the money is created it has to reside somewhere. Where it sits affects the velocity as well as price.

by Galloleous | 9th Nov 21, 9:13am 1636402395

What? Prices going up IS because the value of the dollar is eroding! If you reduce the size of your measuring stick, everything will look longer.

Everyone thinks they are getting rich because their house prices are going up, but measured in Bitcoin they are down significantly.

#TheBitcoinStandard

by VTHO | 9th Nov 21, 9:36am 1636403807

Is that you Adrian?

by LASSET | 9th Nov 21, 9:41am 1636404061

The value of the dollar has 100% been eroded. There's a reason why house prices have gone ballistic around the Western world (not just in NZ), and it's not because they are 'worth' any more. It's because people are desperate to get rid of their cash that's losing it's value at 15% a year, and put it into a hard asset (Like property or Bitcoin).

by younger than most | 9th Nov 21, 10:28am 1636406930

Correct

But have you tried eating a house?

Or a bitcon?

The leverage has put weetbix on our table.... take it away and supply chains disappear

by The Person | 9th Nov 21, 9:35am 1636403732

"orders of magnitude"?

Lets say two orders of magnitude. If house prices have increased 2 orders of magnitude since mid 2008 when the GFC was underway before QE started, then the Auckland median house price should have increased from 440K to somewhere around $40 million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_magnitude

by bobestm | 9th Nov 21, 8:47am 1636400857

Well said. Jeff Snider says:

https://www.macrovoices.com/podcast-transcripts/922-jeff-snider-qe-stil…

https://alhambrapartners.com/2021/02/04/even-the-people-printing-the-mo…

Central banks are trying to backstop/counteract deflationary forces:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzDZRj4xIKU

by Galloleous | 9th Nov 21, 9:11am 1636402267

https://www.lynalden.com/inflation/

The best read on inflation.

by donny11 | 9th Nov 21, 8:48am 1636400911

But when debt is monetised it isn't going to be repaid, that is the whole point of monetising it. Money is printed this money is used to purchase the debt. The mechanism is different but the end result of monetising debt vs money printing is exactly the same.

by chebbo | 9th Nov 21, 8:53am 1636401233

But when debt is monetised it isn't going to be repaid

That's not true. If it was, the debt would be worthless. In this case the debt we are talking about is mostly in the form of government bonds, which certainly aren't worthless. I'm pretty sure the bond holders are expecting to get repaid at some point.

by donny11 | 9th Nov 21, 9:16am 1636402592

How monetising debt works though is like this. In a society xyz, the broad money is 100 billion dollars. The government debt in this society is 10 billion dollars. The government decides to monetise this debt. It therefore prints 10 billion dollars to purchase its own debt. The government now has zero debt but the broad money supply is now 110 billion dollars. All other things staying the same in the MxV = PxQ equation the society now has undergone 10% inflation to pay for governments decision to monetise the debt as the money supply has increased 10% so prices increase 10%. There is no free lunch the government has just got the private sector to pay for its debt through inflation and inflation is a tax.

I guess theoretically the govt could un-monetise the debt. But this has never happened and never will.

by chebbo | 9th Nov 21, 10:03am 1636405429

That's not what we've done at all. The amount of debt has gone up, not down.

by donny11 | 9th Nov 21, 10:36am 1636407394

The LSAP was a debt monetisation programme.

by chebbo | 9th Nov 21, 11:02am 1636408948

Correct.

by Audaxes | 9th Nov 21, 3:44pm 1636425867

The government debt in this society is 10 billion dollars.

This government IOU is always monetised by banks before the central banks do the same. What banks owe (so called bank deposits) after purchasing government securities (syndicate and tender) is recorded on bank liability ledgers for the public to spend. In reality these deposits are temporarily transferred to the central bank Crown Settlement Account waiting to be dispersed via transfer payments to individual bank account holders.

What the central bank owes the banks that sell these same government bonds to it remain recorded on it's liability ledger until the bonds are sold or redeemed at maturity, not circulating in the community.

A recent Bloomberg article described central bank easing with the phrase “pumping money into the economy.” That’s a misconception. Monetary easing is actually an asset swap. The public was holding savings in one form, and now it holds it in another. The Fed buys Treasury securities from the public, and replaces them with currency and bank reserves (base money) that someone has to hold, at every point in time, until the Fed sells its bonds and retires the cash. All monetary policy does is to change the mix of government obligations held by the public. Only fiscal policy – specifically deficit spending – changes the total amount of those obligations. - courtesy of Hussman

by KH | 9th Nov 21, 9:22am 1636402948

Debt needing repaid or not is not the point.

The problem is the massive use of debt allows unwise resource allocation. You can spend on the wrong stuff.

There is still a limited actual resource, so when you buy that stupid bridge, the builders are not building houses.

by linklater01 | 9th Nov 21, 3:36pm 1636425394

chebbo,

Not sure you really understand this. As PDK points out, there has been very significant inflation in asset values. This has been a direct result of much lower interest rates as QE has forced them lower, as a deliberate policy. However, huge amounts of the money created has never gone into the wider system but has stayed within the financial system. Velocity has been declining for many years now. In the US, the Fed. pays the banks interest on the money left with it.

by Atapene | 9th Nov 21, 11:10pm 1636452603

You thinking the debts being incurred are going to somehow paid off is the most naive thing I've ever heard. Oh wait, they can be paid off.... when the value of the dollars plummets shrinking the size of the debts. Oh i guess thats inflation, the whole point of which is to reduce debt.

Understand basic concepts before you turn your attention to failing to understand blockchain

by murray86 | 9th Nov 21, 8:50am 1636401017

Is it the 'debt' or the creation of unrestrained 'credit' that causes the inflation? The private banks have been issuing credit, seen by the users as debt. Chebbo is correct that debt takes money out, but it appears in part, as profit on the bank's ledgers. But the issue that causes inflation is the issuing of credit which we have seen in the housing market. The banks have shown little restraint in issuing credit here to enable people to buy houses, thus incurring the debt against their future earnings. It has been the issuing of this credit which caused the inflation.

by VTHO | 9th Nov 21, 7:57am 1636397828

It is going to pump to an eye watering level soon, one that is most definitely unsustainable. This is the peak of the bull market. Afterwards the price will decline for a year or two before it finds its bottom, then begin its next bull run. Its cycles are so obvious its painful. Overall the trajectory remains up, and will continue so. You'll see $1 million per Bitcoin before you see $10k Bitcoin (i.e never again). There is a reason Wall Street now has Bitcoin ETFs and the worlds richest man has it on the balance sheet of Tesla and Space X, not to mention countries beginning to buy it (Ecuador is first). Pretty impressive ponzi if you ask me..

by muzled | 9th Nov 21, 8:12am 1636398729

VT, will you sell when you think it gets to the top of the cycle?

I put in small amount when it was at 25k nzd as a long term hold and see what happens thing but wonder if I shouldn't be flicking it and then buying again.

by VTHO | 9th Nov 21, 8:29am 1636399772

Me personally, I will be selling 100% of my holdings into the peak of this bull cycle around the end of December/early Jan (in my opinion) and buying back in the bear market. Will I catch the top? No way. I would rather leave 20% on the table than try and sell at the pico top and miss out. I have a plan in place and will stick to it.

If it was at say $125k NZD, that's a 5x for you. Not bad! Would it be silly to not take some profit? Maybe, depends on your situation, and only you can decide. Many put it into cold storage with out planning on touching it for 10/20 years, nothing wrong with this either :) Good luck!

by bw | 9th Nov 21, 8:37am 1636400263

And who will you be selling your holding to?

Someone, who, just like you did when you bought, thinks it's going up from the price you trade at. Are they wrong? Or are you wrong for selling a rising asset?

It only matters who 'you' are......and someone, someday, is that person you (second-person singular) don't want to be.

(NB: Anyone whose ever been a dealer knows it's easy; obvious, until it isn't. And as your post suggests, "Once a dealer, always a dealer")

by VTHO | 9th Nov 21, 8:42am 1636400543

Hi BW. No one is wrong in my opinion. I will be selling to whomever takes my bid on the exchange. Two different entities with 2 different plans, that is all. "Once a dealer, always a dealer" - yes indeed.

by rastus1 | 9th Nov 21, 1:09pm 1636416552

So you are selling your BTC. Why? That makes no sense because the dollar is dead and useless and btc solves everything.

What would you need fiat dollars?

The hypocrisy is mind boggling.

by VTHO | 9th Nov 21, 1:50pm 1636419018

Ah there he is, was wondering when you would show. Better late than never.

I have never said fiat is dead, its still our currency and will be for many years. I never said BTC solves everything. You speak a lot of rubbish.

*yawn* - furthermore if you actually read what I post, I will be selling this bull run and buying back in at a later date. I'll let you figure out why...

by petethecat | 9th Nov 21, 9:08am 1636402135

I've been pondering this myself recently. The new 39% tax rate doesn't change your plan at all VTHO? Say the cycles are maturing and top to bottom we only have a 60% drop, you'd have to really nail your exit/entry just to come out better than break even. Important to take some profit I think, but my plan involves a certain amount of long term hold regardless of price.

by VTHO | 9th Nov 21, 9:26am 1636403200

The tax rate increase was a real kick in the nuts to be honest. I reassessed my strategy and increased my exposure slightly to account for it, in the end it shouldn't make much of a difference now. I'm lucky enough to have brought up large in the March 2020 Covid dump, seeing a 60% drop from the top of this cycle would still leave me with large profits so I'm not too concerned about timing it perfectly. I fear holding long term is not enough to extinguish tax liability in the eyes of IRD. The crypto tax law is very new so this is yet to be put to the test. Taking profit or paying yourself is very important, I agree. Good luck!

by More Uninterested | 9th Nov 21, 9:33am 1636403615

Yeah with the potential tax bill and no guarantee of successfully finding the bottom I don't think it's worth trying to time the peak of the bull run.

I'm going to hold, buy the dips. Might get rekt short term but this is long term play. There could be a fair bit of good news spread out into next year (spot ETF's, banks and other big players getting in), institutional money is here, the market has evolved with defi and nfts and some suggesting the usual four year cycles are lengthening and a thing of the past. The answer might be somewhere in the middle. Will be interesting to watch...

by Galloleous | 9th Nov 21, 9:18am 1636402720

I have a base amount of Bitcoin that I never want to sell. Its just not worth the risk of not being able to actually buy it back again in the future. But I am looking forward to cleaning out all my shitcoin positions, I have just accumulated way too many over the years haha

by petethecat | 9th Nov 21, 10:22am 1636406545

Haha exactly my thoughts

by southmotian | 9th Nov 21, 10:36am 1636407381

You might be right, or you could be wrong. If you've potentially made life changing money already from crypto I don't see why you'd take such a black and white approach. Why not aim to keep 50% crypto and 50% a mix of cash and other assets? That way you'd always be happy with the outcome whatever way crypto goes long term?

by bw | 9th Nov 21, 8:30am 1636399803

Do you know how many times over even recent history, markets have provided an 'obvious cycle' and a pathway forward, only to see that disappear as some unforeseen happening arrived? Dozens. Perhaps an uncountable number over time. Buy Bitcoin, Tesla shares, residential property or bat guano if, for whatever reason you're sure; you know, the price is going up, and sell it if you know it's going to fall. It's that simple. The hard part is knowing the unknown.

by VTHO | 9th Nov 21, 8:38am 1636400281

Yea you're not wrong BW. If we knew the future with 100% accuracy then we'd all be billionaires. History might not repeat but it often rhymes and the more time you spend in crypto the better in tune you get with it. It is all math at the end of the day, here is a quote from a very smart friend "Think of it as price jumping around but 1000s of entities software and people using averages and fibs forms a construct that constrains price, market wide". It has very distinct patterns and when you can see how it works you can make ALOT of money. The golden ratio of 1.618 derived from the fibonacci sequence plays a huge part, it is quite fascinating in its own right. Anyway, got off track there sorry. You make a plan, execute it and hope it pays off, simple as that.

by bw | 9th Nov 21, 8:59am 1636401562

Fond (or was that terrifying!) days of 'controlling' a start-up trading room. Having a blank sheet of paper and a pen in front of you and 'initial expectations' of $100k a day - from literally $zero, and 'knowing' that the people you'd put into the seats, that until yesterday were empty, had the confidence and ideas that come through in your comments.

Like having a child, enjoy it, those days will pass in the blink of an eye. Cheers.

by Galloleous | 9th Nov 21, 9:33am 1636403589

I thought 2017 was the obvious bubble??!! or was it 2013? or 2011? People will look back on these prices in the future and say it was so cheap!

It has been cyclical based on the Bitcoin halving cycle, but I think the affects of this will abate in the future as relatively it becomes less impactful. Eg current rates are 900 a day, which will drop to 450 in 2024. And once the big players get involved.....

by Pacman_46 | 9th Nov 21, 11:30am 1636410628

Bitcoin is into it’s 4th parabolic run-up on a log scale, over the past decade. Bubbles don’t pop, then re-inflate 4 times. This is due to exponential network adoption. Ignore price action, and look at the underlying technology. The global payment rails for the 21st century digital economy are being laid before your eyes, and many are distracted by price. Don’t be asleep at the wheel.

by bpmhopper | 9th Nov 21, 8:11am 1636398677

Crypto market will see new heights as people lose confidence in economies and their money deflates in value. Lets Go!

by dumbthoughts | 9th Nov 21, 8:15am 1636398956

In today's episode of crypto regret stories, I just worked out that a dinner I paid for my wife and I while on holiday in New York a few years ago has cost me the best part of $50,000 NZD at today's bitcoin value.

Back in the day I had one of those crypto Visa debit cards, and used about 1/2 of a bitcoin to pay for a nice meal out (I believe it was around $500 NZD worth of bitcoin at the time).

Next time we go out she's getting the Burger King coupon special!

by Galloleous | 9th Nov 21, 9:21am 1636402898

HODL on friend, long term patience is the hardest part. We will look back on these prices 5, 10 years from now and say "Im so jealous of all the people who brought Bitcoin at 60k"

by Audaxes | 9th Nov 21, 8:17am 1636399061

5% of the amount of accepted competitive tenders was tendered at or below 0.08%. Demand for pristine collateral remains unabated, as does the Fed's need to top up it's balance sheet to offset circulating legal tender liabilities, as prior asset purchases expire on the redemption date.

by Galloleous | 9th Nov 21, 9:22am 1636402963

Bitcoin is the only pristine collateral in the world. You hold your own keys and you know for 100% that there is absolutely no other claims on those Bitcoin :)

by Audaxes | 9th Nov 21, 9:41am 1636404079

Too tiny to be relevant at this time.

by Galloleous | 9th Nov 21, 9:52am 1636404743

That is also kind of the point, if you can see where all that bond money is going to flow in the future, the early adopters will be rewarded :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pa019xHaYnM

Great 3min summary on the intrinsic value of Bitcoin based on CDS rates

Look up anything by Greg Foss, a 30 year bond trader.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPgH2sK_psg  $2m price target maths

by Berend de Boer | 9th Nov 21, 8:32am 1636399926

First time Bitcoin in the headline?

by blobbles | 9th Nov 21, 8:41am 1636400499

Again Australia leading the way with solar. Yes they have issues with it which they are sorting out, but that just requires cleverly engineered solutions which they are slowly putting online.

Meanwhile in NZ, our government actively discourages solar rooftop installations via the power companies they own. No subsidies, nothing, while James Shaw zips around the world making an ass of himself and the governments policy to buy fake carbon credits to reduce our emissions.

by The Person | 9th Nov 21, 9:39am 1636403958

In Oz peak power consumption is midday summer when it's hot and the Sun is shining. In NZ it's winter mornings and evening when the Sun ain't shining. Solar households free-load on transmission networks here to a much greater degree, only using power during periods of peak demand.

by murray86 | 9th Nov 21, 10:10am 1636405854

Not sure I'd call it 'free loading'. A colleague who has gone to all solar, but retained a connection (no back ups) told me that initially his power meter was unwinding at a great rate. The power company had completely under estimated the output of his installation. He does use a limited capacity battery storage. But those flows into the grid would reduce drain from hydro lakes, and loads that may see coal stations fire up or increase their loads. If there are occasions when they do need to draw from the grid, they are or should be in the minority (lower half), so getting some back on occasion shouldn't be too much to ask, plus they would still be paying for it, and at a higher rate than they get paid for the power their solar installation generates.

by The Person | 9th Nov 21, 4:03pm 1636426992

but they only pay for those short periods of peak demand, so they are using electricity at the time that it is most expensive for the transmission networks to supply it, and only contribiting a tiny bit of network charges. Transmission networks are built to a certain capacity, the capacity needed to meet peak demand which your friend contributes to that deamnd. But they are paid for by usage charges of which your friends hardly contributes to.

Unless their lmiited battery is enough to meet all their evening and morning peak demand on a cold cloudy day until the solar recharges it during the day. Then they ok from a network point of view, but the cost of their install has trippled, not something that can be rolled to the masses, it's an uneconomic hobby that few can afford.

by blobbles | 9th Nov 21, 11:14am 1636409650

Easily dealt with, home battery storage and grid energy storage. Both of which are reasonably easy to do, neither of which the government is investigating (other than lake onslow). Where's the pilot salt energy storage plants or other grid battery store? Government isn't interested... so will continue to do the wrong thing and pretend it's doing something good.

by The Person | 9th Nov 21, 3:55pm 1636426513

it is not the governments job to invest in unproven energy storage technologies.

Adding a battery to a residential solar installation is easy to do if your pockets are bottomless, but it becomes a hobby that will never pay for itself.

by Uninterested | 9th Nov 21, 12:29pm 1636414158

Yep and this govt is doing away with the low user plans too which will make it even less economical to put in solar.

by Doggog | 9th Nov 21, 8:42am 1636400572

Why do people sell their Bitcoins if they think it is the future? When they sell out they are paid in fiat money, which they say is no good. It makes more sense that it is just a speculative hyped up ponzi scheme.

by VTHO | 9th Nov 21, 8:58am 1636401530

I know many who will never sell, they have it as a hedge against monetary inflation. Others trade it for profit and cash out into fiat to spend. Nothing wrong with either option. If it is really _just_ a "speculative hyped up ponzi scheme" then it really has fooled some of the greatest minds on the planet - the most obvious being the richest man alive, Elon Musk, who has it on the balance sheet of Space X and Tesla. What a sucker..

by Clementé | 9th Nov 21, 9:15am 1636402552

Even if it is a ponzi scheme, its the easiest access, global, 24 hour ponzi scheme with a potential 8 billion mugs to get their slice ...

Can wax lyrical about how it doesnt make sense from the sidelines or join in.... only one will net you any profit

by VTHO | 9th Nov 21, 9:29am 1636403380

Amen to that lol.

by Galloleous | 9th Nov 21, 9:27am 1636403220

Its all about what each individual wants in life. I myself will keep most of my Bitcoin, but will sell all my shitcoins. The question is, if I sell my Bitcoin, what am I going to do with the money?? more than likely just spend it on instant gratification and shit I don't need. Bitcoin really makes you think about the long term, because you know 100% that there will be less and less Bitcoin produced in the future.

As another eg my friends goal is to get a house deposit, so crypto is just a means to an end.

by LASSET | 9th Nov 21, 9:28am 1636403289

People buy assets for different reasons. Some as you say just view it as a way to make more fiat, that's fine. Others view everything through the lens of getting more BTC.

Thus even if you believe it's the future, you might think the fiat price is getting to a local top. Then you sell some holdings into fiat so you can acquire more BTC when the fiat price drops lower. Rinse and repeat. That's trading.

by Gold Kiwi | 9th Nov 21, 8:49pm 1636444197

I'm planning to sell some to buy other assets, not to keep in cash.

by Atapene | 9th Nov 21, 11:20pm 1636453251

Because while it's in volatile cycles due to so many people having no understanding of it whatsoever, you can time going into and out of the market to take advantage of it. Is this not obvious?

by Pietro | 9th Nov 21, 8:52am 1636401148

I’ve got a solar system and I see from dashboard that it’s the equivalent of owning 1.2ha of pine forest, and that it offsets 13 tonnes of carbon. Why doesn’t the government actively encourage solar uptake with some sort of incentive? We get a measly 8c a kilowatt for the power we export. I have to say it would been financial nonsense had we paid the full price for our system.

by Noncents | 9th Nov 21, 9:36am 1636403774

The question is are you entirely off-grid?

If you are reliant on any wider electricity infrastructure then why should the government subsidise you? They are effectively giving you a free pass on grid maintenance while still getting all the benefits of that ongoing supply.

by blobbles | 9th Nov 21, 11:07am 1636409243

The answer is obvious and contained in his statement regarding carbon offset. Because in a few years time, the NZ government will have to pay billions of dollars in carbon offsets. Sure we need some clever engineering to account for the different load curves, but that's not something we should be scared of.

by Noncents | 9th Nov 21, 11:21am 1636410105

Thats the kicker though. You still need all that giant mess of infrastructure regardless. So the inherent carbon loading is still there.

~80% of NZ electricity is already renewable. The 20% that is not, is exactly the load that will be called on when the sun isn't shining and all these individuals immediately tap into the grid to maintain there modern comfortable lifestyle.

Essentially people are swapping one already existing large renewable for multiple entirely new systems (and all the carbon required to Design, Manufacture, transport, install, and maintain) So reality is you are double loading for no real-world gain, particularly when the larger systems have significantly longer effective lifespans.

If they are going totally off-grid then that is different, but Solar in itself will not do that, so why should it be subsidised?

by sparrow | 9th Nov 21, 11:34am 1636410843

Solar panels have to make sense for buildings that are used during the day. And if people with solar panels had their hot water system on a timer to only heat during peak sunlight hours, that would reduce the total load on the system.

by Noncents | 9th Nov 21, 11:48am 1636411701

You have missed my point. Individual solar does not replace our current National Infrastructure, rather it relegates it into a back-up. That back-up still requires all of the carbon loading (and financial costs) to keep it ready and available to step up when required. The power issues a while back show what happens if you have the grid turned of when everyone needs it.

If you want to stay on the Grid, then why should I pay for your solar? If we all go for solar then who is paying for the backup grid? answer no-one so you decommission the national grid, and you are now running off-grid.

by blobbles | 9th Nov 21, 12:45pm 1636415143

You do understand that the storage lakes act as large batteries already right? When the sun shines, they can spin down, when the sun isn't shining, they spin up. Yeah, there's carbon loading in building infrastructure, but that infrastructure had (near enough) infinite re-use once built. Claiming that this is hard to design therefore we shouldn't do it is conservative defeatism. Essentially "it's hard and we haven't done it before, therefore impossible". When a lot of countries are now doing exactly that, it's an irrational sentiment.

Our transport is NOT 80% renewable, it's 100% non renewable, which is where we can make a big difference, with the government rolling out subsidies for electric cars. So there's no reason we can't target that directly, if my car is parked at home during the day it is charging via solar, if I drive to work and it's a nice day, I plug my car into my charger where I park and my solar at my house is transported over the lines to my car, with a top up from some wind farms.

And it should be subsidised for exactly the above reasons. Like I said, we will have bills in the billions of dollars per year to pay in the not too distant future. How do you think we are going to pay for these? And even paying for all those carbon credits, will it make a difference? No. So let's get on and actually change.

by Noncents | 9th Nov 21, 1:36pm 1636418176

Our transport is NOT 80% renewable, it's 100% non renewable, which is where we can make a big difference, with the government rolling out subsidies for electric cars. So there's no reason we can't target that directly, if my car is parked at home during the day it is charging via solar, if I drive to work and it's a nice day, I plug my car into my charger where I park and my solar at my house is transported over the lines to my car, with a top up from some wind farms.

So much wrong with that I don't know where to start.

You are actually suggesting the govt should pay for solar on your house, so that you can sell power to the grid, who move it to (most likely) a park on the side of the road, where an entirely new charging infrastructure would need to be built (and paid for) so that you can plug in your car and then (Most likely) pay to charge it using the electricity you sold to the grid. Where you would then bemoan the fact that you sold it for less than you paid.

If only there was some sort of simplified national generation and grid that could do this for half the price using large volume Hydro with Solar and Wind....

by blobbles | 9th Nov 21, 3:11pm 1636423899

Do you not understand what a subsidy is? Even you just admitted that 20% of our electrical generation is non renewable. And you damn well know that 100% of our transport emissions (minus some already electric cars) are non renewable. And you seem to want to avoid that fact that we need to buy billions of dollars, per year, of carbon credits. I am suggest we use a small slice of that money, now instead, to help to decarbonise our electrical and transport systems to avoid a massive bill in the future. If the government wants to build huge solar farms instead, that's great. But large solar farms take up space and transporting the energy is less efficient. We have about a million houses in this country that have roofs who space is being wasted, that we can mount solar panels to.

I notice that you point blank refuse to answer any question about how we are going to pay billions of dollars in the future buying carbon credits, which is likely to increase dramatically as carbon credits are becoming more and more expensive. All I am hearing is "we can't, because we don't, because we can't, because we don't because it's hard because...", so as Greta would say, more blah blah blah and no action. Hilariously there is evidence from so many other countries that do exactly what I suggest (subsidise solar/battery installations and subsidising rolling out or national charging networks), but let me guess, they are in my imagination?

Talk about not having a clue about what's happening in other jurisdictions right now and how (as a result of no action from our government) we are being left behind as a massive climate change laggard.

by Galloleous | 9th Nov 21, 9:34am 1636403684

https://8marketcap.com/

Just passed Tesla, Silver had better watch out!

by The Person | 9th Nov 21, 4:08pm 1636427330

Why does that site not list USD?

by LASSET | 9th Nov 21, 10:11pm 1636449095

They can't keep up with the ever expanding number.

by Squishy | 9th Nov 21, 9:45am 1636404334

Should I view the bitcoin story as bitcoin being worth more or traditional currencies losing value rapidly?

by Noncents | 9th Nov 21, 10:07am 1636405656

Bitcoins volatility would suggest the former.

by lowercase capitalist | 9th Nov 21, 10:19am 1636406376

Little from column a, little from column b.

by The Person | 9th Nov 21, 4:11pm 1636427463

how about you do a bigmac calculation. If the number of bitcoins need to buy a BigMac at your favourite McDs stays constant, then you can say traditional currencies are loosing value. If you find the number of bitcoins needed for a bigMac is changing, then you know it the value of BitCoin that is changing.

by Brock Landers | 9th Nov 21, 11:17am 1636409869

Central Bank shitcoins hit record low!