Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news the fourth pandemic wave rolling over Europe presents them with brutal choices, and will have global consequences.
But first up, we can report that Jay Powell will be re-nominated for a second four-year term as the head of the US Fed. Lael Brainard, an ex-academic, will be nominated as his deputy, replacing Trump appointed Richard Clarida, an ex-PIMCO adviser and academic.
Clarida has signaled that the Fed will likely taper faster when it announces the decisions at its mid-December meeting.
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index bounced back strongly in October after a weak September result and activity levels picked up noticeably.
Completed home sales in October were unchanged from September, a slowing in this market. But the median price rise to US$393,900 (NZ$565,100) and the available inventory is now low at 10 weeks sales.
Investor piled in to two UST bond auctions this morning with heavy demand. (2 year, 5 year) But both brought rising median yields.
The Chinese central bank reviewed its loan prime rates and left them unchanged yesterday. That's 19 straight months of no-change.
In Hong Kong, they are getting inflation rising, +1.7% in October from -2.3% in September, even as economic activity is shrinking, a bad case of stagflation there.
In Hong Kong, HSBC is struggling to find an auditor big enough and brave enough to handle its requirements, despite a US$1 bln fee for a ten year contract. The job may go to a second-tier auditor.
In Taiwan we are starting to see some weakness in their export machine, unusual for them. Export orders rose only +14.6% in October, the lowest expansion in a year, and well below the +23% rise expected.
With the spreading fourth wave of the pandemic spreading fast in Europe, consumer confidence was expected to fall from already negative levels. But it is actually falling faster than expected as public safety lockdowns test the tolerance of the vaccine hesitant who despite the risks, are quite high in much of Europe. Despite that, consumer confidence is still above its long term average (which has always been quite negative).
In Germany, Angela Merkel said many citizens don’t seem to understand the severity of the situation. Her health minister said dramatically, by the end of their winter “just about everyone in Germany will probably be either vaccinated, recovered or dead”, leaving little possibility to survive as an unvaccinated German.
In Australia, banking behemoth CBA thinks Aussie house prices will fall -10% in 2023. They say the housing market is in the twilight of an incredible boom but when higher interest rates arrive in 2023, things will turn lower. Not all Aussie bank economists are as negative in their forecasts.
In Australia Delta cases in Victoria have slipped to 1029 cases reported there yesterday. There are now 9,533 active cases in the state and there were another 3 deaths yesterday. In NSW there were another 180 new community cases reported yesterday, another drop, with 2,696 active locally acquired cases, and they had one death yesterday. Queensland is reporting zero new cases again. The ACT has 11 new cases. Overall in Australia, just under 85% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 7% have now had one shot so far.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.60% and up +5 bps since this time yesterday. The US 2-10 rate curve starts today flatter at +102 bps. And their 1-5 curve is steeper at +111 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is much steeper at +151 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is +7 bps firmer at 1.85%. The China Govt ten year bond is still unchanged at 2.94%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is down -2 bps at 2.57%.
In New York, the S&P500 started its Monday session up +0.9% but has since given up much of that to be up just +0.2% in early afternoon trade. European markets all closed lower by about -0.2$, although London bucked that rend and ended up +0.4%. Yesterday, Tokyo ended up a minor +0.1%, Hong Kong fell -0.4%, while Shanghai finished up +0.6%. The ASX200 fell -0.6% and the NZX50 fell -1.0% yesterday.
The price of gold will start today much softer at US$1813 and down by -US$32 since this time yesterday, and a two week low.
And oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$76/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$78.50/bbl. The US and some other consumer nations are getting ready to release some supplies from their strategic reserves. OPEC is threatening to curtail supplies, in response.
The Kiwi dollar opens today softer at just under 69.7 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are soft too at just over 96.2 AUc. Against the euro we are lower at 61.9 euro cents That means our TWI-5 starts today at 74.4 and actually its lowest since mid October.
The bitcoin price is -3.4% lower since this time yesterday, down to US$57,716. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just over +/-3.0%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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124 Comments
I read an interesting comment from an elderly, fully vaccinated chap yesterday, countering an argument from the anti-vaxers who claimed they were no threat. He pointed out that in fact they were because if they were out and about spreading the virus and he caught it, then he would be required to go into isolation losing his freedoms and rights because of the selfishness of others. A good point I thought.
It is clear there is a sector of society who selectively choose which rules they will comply with (but god help any who infringe on their rights!) arguing that they don't threaten others. But there are consequences, and they don't always fall on the ones breaking the rules.
'People who are vaccinated have a lower risk of severe disease but are still a relevant part of the pandemic. It is therefore wrong and dangerous to speak of a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Historically, both the USA and Germany have engendered negative experiences by stigmatising parts of the population for their skin colour or religion. I call on high-level officials and scientists to stop the inappropriate stigmatisation of unvaccinated people, who include our patients, colleagues, and other fellow citizens, and to put extra effort into bringing society together.'
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)0224…
Smokers/obese/drug takers/ unfit/ type2 diabetics fill our hospitals and idiots on Fri and Sat nights.
Maybe we should close KFC and Mcdonald to all who are in the above cat and give them a gym membership and increase their taxes to pay for poor choices or cut benefits to those who are not paying any tax.
Covid is not overwhelming hospitals at moment it is the above and some arrive with covid and only find out with testing.
Imagine hospitals with only genuine people arriving needing help they would very quiet indeed.
I am not worrried about a small number of anti vaxxers in general I am more concerned about people with BMI over 30 who think they are normal and fit.
Covid will hit many who are double shot next winter and I am sure the stats will point to poor choice makers being most hit no matter how many vaccines you take hence why NZ has most harsh lockdowns in the world it is because our population is one of the fattest in the world and also drug takers.
https://healthcentral.nz/new-zealand-third-fattest-country-in-the-world/
also our kids are alos in the same boat
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/well-good/116616459/child-obesity-nz…
Come on you guys! The big difference with these life-style killers (obesity, etc) is that I can go anywhere (supermarket, restaurant, party,etc) and NOT CATCH obesity or any other life-style disorder off anybody else in the same room or vicinity. Obesity is NOT INFECTIOUS......COVID IS INFECTIOUS. An exponential difference!
Agree BMI is a poor measure.
Take one certain AB's captain. R McCaw. Height = 187cm, weight = 107kg, BMI = 30.60.
Most of us could only dream of being fit enough to play 148 rugby tests and 145 super rugby matches (with the majority being for the whole 80 minutes)
Have you ever considered that maybe a large portion of the unvaccinated believe in evidence based science and understand medication but dont trust govt and big pharma?
As for the hospitals, why do they allow obese people, smokers, drunk drivers, self harmers and drug overdoses to be treated, clearly from your point of view they should be refused treatment...
theglc,
"Have you ever considered that maybe a large portion of the unvaccinated believe in evidence based science and understand medication"
Could you produce ANY evidence of this? If they really did understand, then trust in government or big pharma would be irrelevant.
I think he was more talking about big pharma.
And the likes of the CEO of Pfizer being on the board of Reuters. Nice cozy relationship to have that one init now... If you can't beat the news, buy the news producers...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Smith_(business_executive)
And how Pfizer are one of the most often fined of the big pharma companies, even if the lovely folk at Purdue beat them out of the top spot monetarily with their criminal opiate pedalling.
https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/industry/pharmaceuticals
Clearly, as by walking past and obese person I can become obese. By walking past a smoker I can become a smoker. By walking past a drunk driver I become drunk, and a driver....
If our hospitals become full then priority should be given to those who are vaccinated.
ICU is full of people with damaged lungs, hearts and other organs due to choices around smoking, drugs, diet, and exercise. They may not be contagious but they drains the healthcare system just the same, if not more.
All sorts of idiots make stupid choices that result in them being in hospital taking care away from legitimate sufferers. Go into ED on a Friday night and tell me that covid is the primary issue.
If you remove care from unvaccinated, then remove it from everyone. After all most hospital admissions are down to a person taking some sort of risk where they underestimated the likely negative outcome.
Even after a $100 billion spend up the hospital system can still be clogged without covid. Remember January when we didn't have any covid?
'https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/300262252/new-zealand-hospitals…'
How many healthcare sector left/didn't arrive - due to the govenments bizarre dithering at MIQ? I guess the health workers should have formed sports teams, a movie or joined the Wiggles.
'20 October 2021 - The Government is changing the way managed isolation is co-ordinated for health workers, guaranteeing 300 spots a month for the health and disability sector.'
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/guaranteed-miq-spots-health-workers
More than people, government is trying to protect failed heath system from being exposed to the world as with 90% vaccination - new norm should be established (In other countries it is 70% or max 80%).
Agree in Europe, they opened up after 60% - 65% vaccination, which might have been earlier but with 90% - everything should be thrown open as one has to live with virus and either you trust vaccination or not and if yes, open up borders- domestic as well as international atleast for residents (Tourist can wait).
God knows how they are intending to staff the hospitals. The government is doing everything that they can to piss off the nurses and drive them out of the profession or country. How long have thy delayed the miserable settling the nurses salary claim and still they have not revealed any of the details or paid it. Nurses continue to leave in droves to the point now, that if they made a huge increase in their salaries, the working conditions are such that many still have to give up through stress. There is a world wide shortage of nurses and some countries are paying astronomical wages. If the government thinks that somehow they can import competent nurses they are probably mistaken. Our salaries are just far too low and and anybody thinking of moving countries has so much better choices available. We will have a hard enough job retaining our own nurses in the country. What they will get are very poorly qualified "nurses" that are not acceptable for first world countries. Many of these will claim to be qualified nurses, but in some countries you can buy any qualification you want. Unfortunately our entry to practice programs, that these nurses are supposed to pass, have no credibility. I know someone who temporarily helped in one and ended up marking the exams for the whole cohort. She had to fail every single one, they were not even remotely competent. Her employers told her that she cannot possibly do that and the matter was taken out of her hands. It is bad enough that these people mostly go into the aged care sector, but now they are starting to filter into the DHB hospitals who have no choice but to accept them. Many of them are absolutely hopeless and dangerous.
Even if they are excellent nurses there is always a culture gap that makes nursing more difficult. Both my wife and I have had superb treatment by an ethnically diverse set of doctors and nurses in Auckland so clearly it is a culture gap that can and is crossed. However when you your body is failing a nurse or cleaner or doctor or administrator with similar background is appreciated. Quite different from when it is your house that is failing - who cares what the drainlayer looks or sounds like.
NZ should be training and then paying nurses wages that will keep them in NZ not going to London to treat Boris.
Well certainly the Maori would agree with that sentiment, but I don't give a toss about peoples ethnicity. In fact some other cultures seem far more empathetic and caring than some of our own people. They may not be as competent though. Having said all that it would seem wrong to view these issues in racial or cultural terms. There are many very competent nurses that have come from overseas. I just don't like our chances of getting many more given our treatment of Nurses and the alternatives available round the world.
I'm well-travelled, lived in several countries and have a visibly mixed ethnicity family and live in North Shore which is remarkably culturally diverse. If I had any objections to medical staff because of ethnicity or culture then something would be seriously wrong. However I can imagine recent arrivals from remote homogenous communities being disconcerted by staff predominately non-Kiwi. When you are ill being rational and fair minded can be a strain.
What about those who have been vaccinated, that can still clog up the hospital system? Covid might just as easily 'take care of them' as well.
"Lockdownistas have been on parade also over the past week, with “ihre papieren bitte”- systems being implemented in many countries to try to boost the injection rate. The vaccine is apparently so good that you need to force people to take it."
Unfortunately people inoculated against Covid-19 are just as likely to spread the delta variant of the virus as those who haven’t had shots. In reality vaccine is low-impact on virus kinetics.
Here is the research: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)0064…
Agreed. However an intelligent unvaccinated person (yes they exist) may be more careful about detecting symptoms and self-isolating accordingly. It is possible that the Delta variant became domintant over weaker strains of covid simply because in a vaccinated community it had an advantage; usually epidemic diseases tend to become less infectious.
Can't agree with that Lapun - usually epidemic diseases become milder and less likely to kill the host rather than being less infections.
Delta became dominant everywhere (vaccinated or unvaccinated, it started in India) because its mutations made it both more infectious and infectious in a shorter period of time, the other variants couldn't compete.
That is only one part of the puzzle.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/11/vaccinated-spread-t…
https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/science_updates…
Read the summary of findings again. Same peak viral load, yes, but the decline from that peak load was faster for vaccinated people, meaning their window of infectiousness was lower. On average that means they're less likely to infect people. Being vaccinated meant that they were nearly half as likely to get the infection in the first place. So all up better to be vaccinated than not, if you count a study with 24 infected individuals as representative.
Mike go back to your lunar based logic please, we could at least get a laugh out of it. I never said the vaccine eliminated the virus, rather it protects the vaccinated over the non vaccinated as you have alluded to. If the editors aren’t going to call ignorant people out on their bullshit peddling misinformation then I’m more than happy to.
Have never said that so don't put words into my mouth. And don't twist them into some meaning that suits your agenda.
Facts - the unvaccinated are more likely to catch it, develop a bigger viral loading and spread it to more people. The vaccinated are not immune, but have a greater defence against the more extremes of the illness, and will proportionately spread it to less people. So on balance the unvaccinated are providing more opportunities for the virus to mutate into more dangerous variants of the virus. So you and your ilk are a threat to everyone else. Selfish and self centred, and in denial.
What is freedom?
There's no simple answer to that question, but one answer is that it's where the collective rights and freedoms of a society are maximised.
Under that notion, the anti-vax mindset is indeed an affront to freedom.
The anti-vax mindset is effectively a libertarian or even anarchic one - everyone can do what they please, be damned with the consequence.
What?
So he is happy to infringe on the rights of freedom for absolutely everyone else in society for his own gain?
Can he not see the selfish hypocrisy in his statement?
It is up to each individual to manage their own risk of exposure. If he is that worried about getting it then he can choose to voluntarily forgo activities to reduce his exposure.
How do these people rationalise the the fact that is it the VACCINATED that are spreading the virus now? makes complete sense when most of the population is already vaccinated such as in Europe.
This is all a load of shit.
Sure, but if your own decisions put others at greater medical risk you can't take away their rights by compelling them to serve you. That is their free decision. Dentists, for example, might not want to be working in the mouth of an anti-vaxxer who might any moment cough and splutter over them, and that's the dentist's free choice.
"Dentists, for example, might not want to be working in the mouth of a vaxxer who might any moment cough and splutter over them, and that's the dentist's free choice."
Fixed that for you, it ultimately makes no difference. In fact, if the vaccinated are more likely to be asymptomatic (?) then wouldn't getting infected by a vaccinated person become more likely?
That's a reckon - do you have supporting source to support the idea asymptomatic cases cause higher transmission? If we're going with reckons a lack of symptoms would reduce the likelihood of coughing and spluttering over the dentist. And seems to be supported by early research even on Delta: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-y…
But yes, the dentist is free to choose. Can't compel them. They'll likely choose not to serve the anti-vaxxers who overlap with anti-maskers and Trump 2024 flags the most, and who could blame them.
Sorry the vacciinated with the virus carry as much load as the unvaccinated.The powers to be use the argument that the vaccinated carry it for longer,which appears to be true,but what also appears to be true is that the vaccinated can carry the virus without knowing it. ( vaccine effectively stops/limits the symptons). But the really strange thing is why is only one scientific fact being allowed in the meadia?
Ur um, No. Only half a good point. One, just because you are unvaccinated does not mean you have Covid, or that you have caught it and have recovered and now have natural immunity.
And 2) vaccinated people can also still catch the disease and pass it on, be it less likely as a % but since most people are vaccinated in absolute numbers if you are mingling in a room with 100 people, you have just as likely a chance of catching it from a vaccinated person as an unvaccinated one.
Even the MH acknowledges this.
The latest case in Christchurch is from a fully vaccinated person.
what the $700 drug that does the same as a 5cent drug
While I like John Campbell he may have been a little out of his depth in this case.
Fortunately NZ is in a relatively good position, with high vaccination rates overall. There has been plenty of time for everybody to get vaccinated, and it is time for the un-vaxxed to live with the consequences of their choice. Hopefully they will not clog the hospital system and prevent deserving Kiwis from proper medical treatment.
It is time that we learn to live with this virus. Like the flu, it is something that everybody will get, sooner or later.
True. A lot of people might be happier & less financially disadvantaged if the vaccine program had been planned & got underway in volume earlier meaning relaxing of lockdowns etc earlier. Nonetheless, summer is arriving and critically hospitalisations are at a steady level and if they remain as such NZ ‘s position probably as good as it can get. The media though needs to be circumspect in their publications. Case numbers will rise daily and in every region. No need to cause panic about that if the hospitals are coping is there.
Critically our hospitals lost staff in the midst of a global pandemic. The vaccine is safe, and the people may be silly for not taking it, but why punish the rest of us by forcing them out.
I would rather treatment by an unvaccinated nurse/doctor or receive assistance by an unvaccinated receptionist/orderly, than being resigned to sit endlessly in a waiting room of an even more understaffed health system.
There are two inescapable realities. Firstly there will always be unvaccinated elements in any society. Secondly each individual will have their own unique reaction, a vaccinated person could well suffer worse than one not vaccinated. Those are the odds, a bit of a lottery, and NZ now has to move into the reality of a world where covid has come to roost. Whether right or wrong the government has brought us all to this point, now it is the responsibility of the individual to manage their lives how they choose. There is a basic question for each as to whether they fear the affect of the vaccine over that of covid. If it is the former, they have every right to live by that decision. If it is the latter they then have to rely on the vaccine to provide protection accordingly.
exactly
if you are a fit healthy person under 50 your odds of dying from covid if you are unlucky enough to be hospitilized is less than 1/1000.
weigh that up against a 2% adverse effect of the vaccine and the unknown long term effects that this experimental drug may cause
https://www.peakprosperity.com/court-blocks-osha-vaccine-mandate/
Vaccine is safe you say
Yrs but really it is safe for overwhelming majority
NOT all
But we are constantly told it is safe for all
That is what gets on my wick
I know people who were fit and healthy pre vaccination and are not now. But media are peculiarly uninterested in interviewing these types of people? Why is that?
Life is not safe.
At this point in time the vaccine is safer than driving, flying, or getting covid.On a purely health based risk assessment, the vaccine stacks up.
Could there be some unforseen longer term issues? Possible, but unlikely.
If you have other concerns, freedom/rights/govt overreach, then by all means air them. But bleating on about the safety issue is pointless.
For what it is worth, I agree with the media statement. The reporting and "fact checking" are abysmal and clearly bias. The PM is clearly controlling the narrative, and much of what she (and the "experts") say is complete crap. My advice, listen to Bloomfield, from what I have seen he tends to be more reasoned, and correct on most of his assertations.
Singapore, yesterday moved to another phase ( traffic light ), following its recent outbreak. With 94 percent of the eligible population vaccinated, and the government aware of waning immunity, boosters are now available five months after being "fully" vaccinated. Come New Years Eve, and in the middle of summer holidays about 15 percent of New Zealand's " fully" vaccinated will be at 5 months.
The language we choose is often loaded with nuanced meaning. And in reading DC's comments about the Fed I wondered about this as he describes Lael Brainard as an "ex-academic", while Richard Clarida is an "academic".
I guess the implication is that academics are all about applying theory, with little acknowledgement of the practical realities, but does being an "ex-" mean the transition to the real world is happening?
In Europe many of the countries that did well restricting the spread of the virus last year like Germany, Austria and Belgium look to be harder hit now. Meanwhile the UK, Spain and Italy that took a kicking last year are showing only a slower and smaller increase in cases now. Population level Covid-19 resilience?
'So why is Germany experiencing a resurgence now, and Sweden isn’t?
Clearly, it can’t be due to Germany being vaccinated earlier and losing immunity earlier, since both countries vaccinated their populations at the same time. For that reason I’m inclined to favour the first hypothesis, that Sweden has built up more population immunity, for the simple reason that covid started spreading massively in Sweden in spring of 2020, but didn’t start spreading properly in Germany until autumn of 2020. So, although the effect of the vaccines has already waned in both countries, Sweden is protected by its widespread natural population immunity, while Germany isn’t. If that is the case, then Sweden shouldn’t see another big wave. In another month or two we’ll know what the truth of the matter is.'
https://sebastianrushworth.com/2021/11/20/covid-the-surprising-fourth-w…
Think in Europe many countries opened border with 60% vaccination, should have been 80% plus and here we are aiming for 90% in NZ and once achieved should throw open the border - to start for residents and may be if everything goes as plan after few months can open for vaccinated tourist.
Delta is more infectious - not more deadly - "After summer, the levels start to rise again to a slightly higher seasonally appropriate level, but remain at the low level you would expect for a virus that has now become endemic. Even though the highly infectious delta variant arrives in Sweden in late spring, and is by autumn totally dominant, it is not able to create a new wave, due to the high levels of pre-existing immunity."
Research is mixed.
According to surveys conducted in the U.K., where Delta accounts for ~90% of current COVID-19 cases, symptoms of Delta tend to be a little different than other strains, but that does not necessarily mean the associated symptoms are more severe. Fever, headache, sore throat and runny nose are common, while cough and loss of smell are not. Other reports link Delta to more serious symptoms, including hearing impairment, severe gastrointestinal issues and blood clots leading to tissue death and gangrene. Research is ongoing to determine if Delta infection is associated with increased hospitalization and death. One early study assessing the risk of hospital admission in Scotland reported that hospitalization is twice as likely in unvaccinated individuals with Delta than in unvaccinated individuals with Alpha.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)0135…
It is due to how lock-downs work, they slow the spread and increase the incidence of disease. Sweden allows the recovered to spread freely and Germany locks them in place. All parts of Sweden share some increased immunity, while in Germany there are places with low immunity locked in place.
Link? Here you go I did it for you
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-new-research-suggests-delta-s…
Full Definition of apartheid
1: racial segregation specifically : a former policy of segregation and political, social, and economic discrimination against the nonwhite majority in the Republic of South Africa
Does it have a different meaning if its in caps?
Nice one... do you think the 1 means something....???
Dare you to scroll down...
https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/dictionary.cambridge.org/amp/english/apa…
C'mon Rick.. are you sure you not being exclusive?
https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/dictionary.cambridge.org/amp/english/apa…
Here's newspeak 1984 straight up...https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/127062872/te-papa-to-…
... "requiring vaccination... will ensure as many as possible can attend te papa...."
Powell reappointed is good news for Orr as physiologically NZ politicians will follow US.
Reappointed maybe good for if new appointment, he can always have the excuse of blaming the earlier governor and now with reappointment , have no choice but to face the tune.
You don't need to have a crystal ball to see that when the vaccine certificates expire six months after issue, this will most likely be used as the justification/means to require everyone to have a booster to continue to participate in society - at least based on what we are seeing in Europe.
The "pandemic of the unvaccinated" will become the "pandemic of the unboosted" overnight, and all those puerile 'two shots for a sick-as summer bro' ads will be replaced with 'three shots for a wild-as winter' (on a side note, I think my brain is fried from being subjected just once to the vaccination rap ad that is airing on the radio while in an Uber the other day ... there is a reason I only ever have Spotify in my car)
However, many of the most at-risk from Covid will be entering the traffic light system at a point where 6+ months have passed since they were fully vaccinated.
On that basis, surely the vaccine certificate should be "expired on arrival" for anyone who was vaccinated 6+ months ago?
We all know that mandatory boosters are coming next year; so why does an 18 year old who is at stuff all risk from Covid in the first place (and who is fully vaccinated) get the short shrift compared to a 90 year old whose vaccination protection has expired?
In effect, the most vulnerable in society from a Covid risk perspective will get to walk around all summer long with diminished immunity, but because they have some digital certificate they are magically safe and protected!
It's obvious the answer is rooted in political expediency ... but what is the scientific basis?
"just about everyone in Germany will probably be either vaccinated, recovered or dead"
This is actually a mundane and benign fact. The virus has an R0 of 5 so of course everyone will get it. And or course the vast majority who're under 65 and in good health, whether vaxed or not, will recover with no problems.
Now for the actual data. This website shows the real-time occupancy (right click and translate to english) of intensive care beds across the whole of Germany. Bear in mind Germany has a population of 83.9 million. So there are currently 3834 covid19 patients in ICU of which 51.41% are ventilated. There are 22055 ICU beds in total, and 19390 (87.9%) are in use. As you can see covid19 patients are taking up almost 20% of all the ICU beds.
I was speaking to a nurse (sister in law). She said the situation this year is no worse than last year in terms of numbers. What's changed is so many nurses and doctors have left or quit. You see working in those ICU facilities is absolutely grueling work. As a nurse you're wearing full PPE for 7 hours straight. You come out dripping with sweat and exhausted. I wonder what will happen in New Zealand where the Labour party has caused 1300 nurses and doctors to resign by stupidly forcing a vaccine mandate on them.
In Taiwan we are starting to see some weakness in their export machine, unusual for them. Export orders rose only +14.6% in October, the lowest expansion in a year, and well below the +23% rise expected.
EU Abruptly Shelved Plan For Upgraded Taiwan Trade Ties Amid China Pressure
China in a different league in respect of potential purchasing power.
WoW
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/youre-joking-house-prices-at-aucklands-b…
..And all media / Experts just before RBNZ meeting are trying to potray that housing market is cooling to influence not to act on housing ponzi.
Even banks are trying to potray with headline that they too are imposing self rigidness so no need of DTI.
RBNZ has last opportunity tomorrow to redeem themselves by rising above vested biased interest and do what is right for the country / economy.
In respect to what Merkel said and followed by your overlay
Your comment was “leaving little possibility of survival if you are unvaccinated “
This is utterly without foundation
98.5% of people who get CV19 survive
Did you not notice the word “recovered” in Merkel’s remarks?
Exaggeration of risk is getting a tiresome commonality from pro vax brigade. Accounts of side effects real specific and more than minor , are vanishingly small also
I'm slowly learning to expect this kind of hyperbole and misinformation from certain commentators on this site. I've chosen to ignore it and focus on the financial commentary instead, which is what I'm here for, and the only type of commentary they're qualified to give anyway.
Based on current stats, 0.4% of those officially recorded as testing positive for covid in NZ, have died (note - we don't know if covid is the primary cause of death in all cases, many of them have had significant co-morbidity).
Given there will be a significant number of infected people who aren't officially recorded as positive cases, it's probably closer to 0.3%.
This doesn't really mean much, other than to say this is not a highly deadly virus. But it's still a nasty one, where 'balanced' risk management and mitigation is critical.
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