Markets confused about what Omicron will bring; China reports strong industrial profits; Black Friday may have been a retail fizzer; new sudden travel restrictions; UST 10yr 1.48%, oil dives and gold soft; NZ$1 = 68.1 USc; TWI-5 = 72.8

"None of the current trials are designed to detect a reduction in any serious outcome such as hospitalisations, intensive care use, or deaths

Vaccines are being hailed as the solution to the covid-19 pandemic, but the vaccine trials currently underway are not designed to tell us if they will save lives, reports Peter Doshi, Associate Editor at The BMJ today.

...Part of the reason may be numbers, says Doshi. Because most people with symptomatic covid-19 infections experience only mild symptoms, even trials involving 30,000 or more patients would turn up relatively few cases of severe disease. 

“Hospitalisations and deaths from covid-19 are simply too uncommon in the population being studied for an effective vaccine to demonstrate statistically significant differences in a trial of 30,000 people,” he adds. “The same is true regarding whether it can save lives or prevent transmission: the trials are not designed to find out.” 

...If the frail elderly are not enrolled into vaccine trials in sufficient numbers to determine whether there is a reduction in cases in this population, “there can be little basis for assuming any benefit against hospitalisation or mortality,” he warns.

...Doshi says that we still have time to advocate for changes to ensure the ongoing trials address the questions that most need answering.

For example, why children, immunocompromised people, and pregnant women have largely been excluded; whether the right primary endpoint has been chosen; whether safety is being adequately evaluated; and whether gaps in our understanding of how our immune system responds to covid-19 are being addressed.

https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/covid-19-vaccine-trials-cannot-tel…

Obviously the Oceania one. (Never heard of that British one.)

Seem to remember as a kid, fizzer being the term used to describe a firework you spent your hard earned pocket money on, only to light the fuse in keen anticipation and have it fizzle out.

Not a fizzer, a Pfizer...get with the programme

Good news from Medscape

Pfizer announced on Monday that its COVID-19 vaccine provided long-term protection against the virus in a late-stage clinical trial among adolescents ages 12-15.

A two-dose series was 100% effective against COVID-19, which was measured between 7 days and 4 months after the second dose.

The clinical trial researchers found no serious safety concerns while following patients for 6 months.

There is no news article attached to the statement that Black Friday sales may have been a “fizzer” - the early reporting I have seen from US financial media is that sales in the US were up 47.5% on last year (combined instore and online spending). Not sure how that turns out to be a “fizzer” unless its the British terminology being used. 

They arrived in NSW on saturday and would have been required to self isolate at home until 72hours  and a negative test result.  Hardly out and about spreading it around.  But  no reason to let facts get in the way of a load of old cobblers eh?

Just another opinion, of course...

...it is a virus non-fatal to almost everyone. This new variant with the fancy name of Omicron, has all the makings of an omni-con ..."The public were demanding something must be done, they got masks, it is just a comfort blanket," Dr Axon noted. "But now it is entrenched, and we are entrenching bad behaviour. All around the world you can look at mask mandates and superimpose on infection rates, you cannot see that mask mandates made any effect whatsoever. The best thing you can say about any mask is that any positive effect they do have is too small to be measured."

https://www.gbnews.uk/gb-views/mark-dolan-the-omicron-variant-has-all-t…

Well if they were "fully vaccinated with no symptoms" than that is great news, seems like the vaccine is working against this strain if they have no symptoms. 

Again, if this bubble is ever to actually have a top – and I believe it will – this would be a perfectly reasonable moment to expect one. From the standpoint of record valuations, it’s certainly the single most opportune moment that investors have ever had to obtain a “wealth transfer” from other investors, by selling. Still, the intent of this interim comment is only to share what we’re observing here.

As I’ve regularly noted, there’s no “getting out” of the market in aggregate – someone has to hold every share of stock outstanding, so there’s no point in advising investors to “sell.” Market capitalization is nothing but the price at which the most recent buyer and seller traded even a single share, multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding. Currently, the market capitalization of U.S. financial and nonfinancial equities stands at roughly $68 trillion, about 3 times the $23 trillion level of U.S. GDP. At the 2000 market peak, the record was about 1.9 times GDP. Indeed, the present ratio of U.S. market cap to GDP is nearly 50% above levels that were never observed prior to last year.

Market capitalization isn’t “wealth.” It’s the latest price, times shares outstanding. Blotches of ink on paper. Flashing pixels on a screen. If a dentist in Poughkeepsie buys a single share of Apple at a price that’s 10 cents higher than the previous trade, $1.6 billion in market capitalization emerges from thin air. If a single share trades 10 cents lower, $1.6 billion evaporates just as quickly. Whatever happens, every security in existence has to be held by someone until it is retired. Ultimately, the wealth inherent in a security is the future stream of cash flows it will deliver to its holder(s) over time. Price fluctuations don’t change those underlying cash flows. They just provide opportunities for the transfer of savings between investors. High valuations favor the sellers. Low valuations favor the buyers. Investors have never paid higher prices for those future cash flows, or accepted prospective returns so low.

Put simply, the bubble hasn’t changed the wealth, and a collapse won’t change the wealth. What will change is the market cap. I suspect that the erasure of market cap in the coming years, and possibly the coming quarters, may be brutal. Still, no forecasts are required, and our own attention will remain on observable valuations, market internals, and other factors. Meanwhile, even if an investor sells at these extremes, the only thing that will change is who holds the bag.

The main consideration, then, is to make sure that your own investment position is actually aligned with our own investment horizon and risk-tolerance. In the event that you choose to be heavily invested in stocks, at least take a moment to write out your reasons, and to clearly identify the evidence you’re using. - Link

My guess is it's due to the reports that this variant is vaccine resistant. The vaccines have worked well against the earlier variants. Sure, markets would have priced in a vaccine resistant variant at some point, but wouldn't have know if it were this year, or 2 years from now.

Why did you put 'the market' and 'think' in the same sentence?

A bunch of knee-jerking lemmings reacting to the daily hype?

Think?

maybe it's the 5 million odd dead people - or are they just pulling a stunt too? done muh research.

Perhaps the political tussling came first? And then their own spot price market model, leading to the failure to fill the reserve tanks over the summer cheap period due to that spot price mechanism, are the real problem here.

Be natural and human body can defeat any virus.

Like the way the body defeats smallpox, polio, rabies or ebola?

In medieval times, everyone played in the dirt, got fresh air everyday and only eat organic food yet still died in huge number of diseases that we can easily prevent or mitigate using vaccines.