Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the 2021 Santa rally seems to have been snuffed out with the rise of Omicron.
The NZD is falling in a sharp risk-off mood that is gripping markets to end the year.
Global investors are dumping shares as concerns about the Omicron variant build. Investors are watching its rapid spread and case numbers explode in Europe and the US. Hopes that it would be milder than the Delta variant seem to be questioned by early surveys, and hospitals fill up with unvaccinated sufferers. Vaccination only seems to reduce the severity of symptoms and likelihood of contracting it, rather than eliminating the risks.
Further, the US seems to be hamstrung by a key Senator refusing to support any expansion of the frayed American social safety net, suggesting the economic impacts of this Omicron resurgence may seriously reduce consumer economic activity in 2022. As US consumer spending is the key engine of global economic activity, investor fears are now worldwide.
However, a widely-watched leading indicator series from the US Conference Board is very positive in December, indicating growing gains and "suggesting the current economic expansion will continue into the first half of 2022". Obviously markets are ignoring this data today.
In Japan, they have just approved a US$320 bln "supplementary budget" for the 2021/22 year aimed at keeping their economy juiced up and supporting the good recovery there that seem to be building.
Taiwanese export orders continued to impress in November, coming in with year-on-year growth of +13.2%. And while that was smaller than the October percentage gains, it didn't show the moderation analysts were expecting. In fact, at US$65.5 bln worth of orders in one month, that is the largest for any month ever and easily topping the prior record in September.
In Hong Kong, they had a sham 'election' over the weekend where the pro-Beijing party swept to power after Beijing banned almost all opponents. Voters responded with a voting boycott. As few as 1000 votes could get you elected if Beijing let you put your name forward. The result was that the most unpopular governor of the territory of all time 'won' almost all the votes cast. 'Democracy' with Chinese characteristics "for the new Era".
Meanwhile, China cut -5 bps from its 1 year prime loan rate today, but left its 5 year rate unchanged. That is expected to save companies about NZ$20 bln in interest cost over a year, and is part of Beijing's promise to help its struggling SMEs. (See chart at the bottom of this page.)
The situation is getting tougher in the property sector, with the overnight failure of restructuring efforts for Evergrande resulting in a further wipeout of share values in the property development sector. That has triggered Beijing to instruct banks to lend urgently to keep these companies functioning.
And now, with pandemic restrictions biting in China too, airlines are struggling with sharply reduced traffic.
Facing a building slowdown, markets now expect Beijing to relax or even abandon its clean air and other environmental or climate positions. That means steel mills are anticipating significant new infrastructure stimulus, and in turn, the iron ore price is rising, now approaching a four month high.
In Australia, auction clearance rates slumped over the past week after a rush of properties for sale. But at least there, more are still selling than not - unlike in Auckland.
And neither Australian nor New Zealand consumers have gotten the Omicron memo; retail sales activity in both countries is strong going into the last week of the holiday shopping season.
In Australia, pandemic cases in Victoria were 1302 reported today. There are now 123,175 active cases in the state - but there were no deaths today. In NSW there were 2501 new community cases reported today, and another big jump, with 16,225 active locally acquired cases, but also no deaths. Queensland is reporting 49 new cases. The ACT has 13 new cases. Overall in Australia, 89.4% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 3.5% have now had one shot so far.
Wall Street has opened its Monday session with the S&P500 down a sharpish -1.9%. Overnight, European markets all retreated in the range of Paris down -0.8% and Frankfurt down -1.9%. Yesterday Tokyo set the scene for the week with a -2.1% fall. Hong Kong was down -1.9% and Shanghai was down -1.1%. The ASX200 lots -0.2%, and believe it or not, the NZX50 was a complete outlier, gaining +0.4%.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.40% and a -1 bp retreat since this time yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today unchanged at +77 bps. Their 1-5 curve is flatter +89 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is marginally flatter at +136 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down +1 bp at 1.58%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.87%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is also down -3 bps at 2.24%.
The price of gold will start today at US$1796/oz and down -US$3 from this time yesterday.
And oil prices start today -US$3 lower at just under US$67/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$70/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar opens today softer at just under 67.2 USc and that is its lowest in 14 months. Against the Australian dollar we are marginally softer at 94.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down at 59.4 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts the today down at 71.8 and below the 72-74 range of the past 14 months.
The bitcoin price is lower at US$46,189 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.1%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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80 Comments
Soil moisture maps are confirming the "irreducibly pluvial" tag. We had 129mm, rain gauge measured, on the Kaikoura Peninsula, last week, followed by bluebird days and sea conditions in the 7- 9 range. Crays are running into the pots, fish biting, Hectors and Duskies prancing about the boat. Glass half full....
He got banned for admitting that he read such non PC publications as Breitbart and Zero Hedge. A great shame as I, and I think, quite a few others of us here enjoyed his comments, especially about how things were down on the farm. Actually, I must confess to have sinned similarly, if not in exactly the same manner but, having coughed the $100 think that being banned for being non PC, (shock, horror !) after having done so would constitute fraud or something similar
I ran around the Peninsula a couple of weeks back, stunning walk and up there with the best around the country. Was in between surfing sessions at Maungamaunu. The sea food takeaway caravan out the peninsular serves up a pretty good meal, although I'd already polished off about 10kg of Paua when further South. Surf break threw one epic session that attracted just about every surfer from Christchurch to Nelson. Bonfire on the beach, don't find that in the North Island, and everyone cheering riders who caught waves. It was like a carnival, a most memorable experience. Surfing was first class too and I did well.
Stopped by to stay with Andrewj on the farm both directions and had him out in the waves too :-) A shame DC kicked him off, plenty of news out in the farming sector.
Take it from Andrew, it will be bicycle tracks everywhere on the way down.
...it seems Aucklanders are abandoning auction rooms – real life and virtual – leaving properties un-sold and vendors hanging.
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/passed-in-passed-in-passed-in-bidders-di…
The tone is changing, even on sites like One Roof...
Another (mortgage adviser), who had been a mortgage adviser for 24 years, said the changes were the biggest shake-up in that time.
“The prescriptive onus on expenses defies logic, treating each potential borrower as an imbecile who is unable to manage their own affairs in a responsible manner. It is like the Reserve Bank feels they need to protect the borrowers from themselves, which in the mortgage lending arena is just not warranted, we already had (have) more than adequate checks and balances driven by experienced and responsible Advisers and Bankers, to ensure responsible lending is being provided.”
Oh, there there *cue tears*
Rob maintains his position among the rocks and weeds, nervously watching for threats to himself and the other little fish sheltering down there with him. Abruptly, a cool fresh current runs through, and the water begins to clear of the blood and body parts that had, just months before, been churned up in a massive feeding frenzy among the big fish and sharks. They just do that from time to time. Rob doesn't try to understand, he just takes cover until it seems safer.
But what is happening doesn't feel safe. The overt violence is over for now, but it has been replaced by an ominous sucking sound. Rob casts his memory back to stories his grand parents told him, of something not experienced in many years. "Yes", the thinks, "that must be what the stories were about. The sound of cheap money being sucked away by the banks."
Dr Peter A McCullough on why just about everything mainstream about Covid is bollocks.
https://odysee.com/@jackspirko:a/rogan-mccullough:6
Including Omicrom being more virulent than Delta. This guy has authority to speak, about as good as you'll get. Information packed, he can pull studies and statistics for every question Rogan puts to him, and Rogan doesn't give in easily on some points, such as catching Covid twice (can't happen).
For you wannabe scientists on this site that think all is good in the world of vaccines and want to make an easy $2m USD then go to the 2hr12 mark and see him repeat Steve Kirsch open offer. All you have to do is debate Steve on the safety and efficacy of the vaccine. You don't even have to win, just put up a serious argument. No one will take up the offer.
I'm not saying he's wrong, but there is plenty of debate from both sides of the aisle by "highly qualified experts". One I heard yesterday who is a world renown expert (great name of Brilliant)who works/ed for the WHO stated that Omicron data suggests it is possibly the most infectious disease known to man. Certainly the most infectious to emerge in the last 30 years or so. Another report on New Atlas indicates the UK data suggests it is not milder than Delta. Reassuringly though Gauteng in South Africa are reporting declines in cases.
Who knows really? I don't doubt the drug companies are creaming it, and I don't doubt politics played a big part. I only know I don't want to catch it.
I also suggest the whole of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pcIbVvHI2c
I've got 6 mins in and have already found he is off the mark. Looking in the wrong direction might be a better way to put it. 1. Profit motive has never been a conspiracy, pretty plain old human behaviour. 2. You don't have to rely on science, there are 3-4 solid factors in the behaviour surrounding Covid that can show you the policy response does not make sense before you even get to the science. 3. Consequentialism has no place in science, anyone putting it there isn't doing science they are doing religion.
This guy does a better of job of explaining the underlying psychology https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqPJiM5Ir3A
Yes you will get the 10% that are resistant to hypnotism going off the rail sometimes. This doesn't detract from the underlying psychological state of the 30% driving this.
And it is about the behaviour of those driving this. One of the signs things are awry are those driving it are trying to reverse this simple logic, thereby proving they've lost their rationality.
I'm a combustion, I deal with particulates. I don't have to rely on a study or a bias to know masks can't work. Physically impossible. Yet there are all these clowns saying to wear them.
Nobody wants to catch it. Having lived through Delta in both families close to me, vaccinated and unvaccinated there is nothing to fear. If you are an obese diabetic, you should probably take a chance on the gene therapy, as that is mostly the customers in hospital here in Colorado. All personal experience, not the fabricated reports and fear promoted by Big Pharma. Omicron is the new variant used by Big Pharma to force the booster shots upon the masses, to stop the surge. Big Pharmas attempt to stop this cold virus for profit, has prolonged the inevitable, created unmeasurable suffering and the selfish people who never want to get sick again have been fooled.
With or without traffic lights NZ is at the cross roads & must now proceed through & run with covid on board. The attested vaccination rate has been reached, boosters are imminent. Both deputy PM Robertson & health minister Little have assured the health system will continue to cope, otherwise the huge investment into it just announced would have been implemented long ago wouldn’t it. All is now done. NZ can re-enter the international community.The government by their own decrees, management & criteria says so.
Yes, that will be interesting. If they let it in soon the 90% target and mandates will look a bit silly but if they panic over a mild disease they will also silly. South Africa has declared it mild and the UK's hospital admissions have reached a grand total of 104 yesterday (and according Raab the majority are unvaxxed). I don't think the press will be able hide this for too much longer.
The other ~870 hospitalisations yesterday must be from delta. 104 is total omicron hospitalisations it was 84 or so the day before.
Considering the vaccines will not end the pandemic cases without hospitalisations (mild) is a good thing. Since its so mild it is estimated another 4 times the omicron case numbers are not getting tested. Yes everyone has to get a little sick but its the only known path out of a respiratory pandemic.
Not to be a "doomer" but it is more likely than not South Africa has hit a point where they have significant herd immunity though infection. So any subsequent variants of the virus the face, que Omicron will just be backround noise for their society. I don't believe the virus is "milder" it is just that most of the world has increased its defense
Is could be just as severe but there is no data to support this. We are a week or two from confirming it is mild like SA public health has assured us it is (they have the demographics to check this). There is no justification to panic and change settings, just keep it out for two more weeks.
The world is putting restrictions on people to slow down omicron what is nz government doing, if this variant gets into NZ it would be completely on their shoulders this is how delta got in because they open up to Australia. We are all watching as vaccines will not stop this spreading I think we should wait till more data is known before opening boarders
More information! With Omicron the vaccine does a poor job at preventing infection but does a reasonable job at preventing hospitalisation/death. The hospitalisation/death numbers may however appear inflated in the short term due to how infectious Omicron is and the fact we will all get infected at once. Basically herd immunity though vaccination is a failed strategy with Omicron. We either open and all get infected or we stay shut.
They will never permanently stop it at the border, it is too catchy. Once it gets into NZ it will spread.
Seems to be two options: try to keep it out followed by another lockdown, or just get on with it with the vaccine preventing most bad outcomes for those who get it.
Yep the government will start mandating boosters very soon. Looks like the current one is not great so you need to take it more frequently. Just waiting for your vax passports to expire every 4 months now. Second jab for Omicron under development, at least 3 months until trials, trials on you that is.
The scenario you outlined is my worry. I am not anti-vax - and I am double-jabbed - but I do NOT want to be required to get a booster every 4 or 6 months ad infinitum. Speaking to a few friends, they feel much the same - the science indicated getting vaccinated was the way to go and it was sold to us as a way out of the pandemic. That no longer appears to be the case now which rather changes the equation. At what point do you say I've had X number of shots, that's enough!
3 months now, and the booster is also part of the mandate. So quarterly jabs for the rest of your life.
Kids eligible from 17th, but "won't be mandated". Where have I heard that before....
Reporter: You said you wouldn't mandate children
Ardern: We didn't.
Reporter: But the vax pass now extends down to age 5, and is required to enter school.
Ardern: We did not mandate children get vaccinated. Parent's still have the right to decide for their children. The Government will not take that choice away.
Reporter: But unvaccinated children are now banned from school.
Ardern: I reject the premise of that question.
Yep just like I said yesterday and people laughed, its a booster every 4 months for you. Lockdowns also hinted the first sign of Omicron and a RED is almost a cert at the first sign of it. Separate Omicron jab is coming or else it will be just part of the booster depending on where you are in the 4 month cycle.
Read an interesting article/theory - what if it is true as are living in world where everything is shut still economy (stock market being barometer) is touching all time high, house prices doubling in a year, people not working still getting money.......surreal time.......:
Big Crash Coming, According To Treasury Yields https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475749-big-crash-coming-according-to-…
"This is a very interesting phenomenon, that we have only seen 3 times in the past 120 years in the United States:
- During the Civil War
- During and after World War I
- During and after World War II
The fourth time is happening right now!
Treasury yields always tell the right story, but it is people that misinterpret them."
Another headline in marketwatch : Former CIA advisor " They are LYING about Inflation"
After the damage has been done by reserve banks, everyone is screaming but why were they silent earlier and still are they not again accepting the narrative put forward by reserve bank - right or wrong only time will tell.
All economist, experts come with their preconvinced agenda and read data to predict accordingly.
Check history and will notice that so called economist, experts and even agencies like reserve bank and treasury are always wrong - whenever they are it is in favour of asset class / ponzi.
Ok. Could happen, and let's hope so.
Not sure that could happen by end of northern hemisphere summer though, unless omicron really is mild and is allowed to run riot.
What about people getting it twice and the chances of another variant that evades natural immunity and vaccines?
I think that is the most relevant question Ras. Indeed in considering the Flu pandemic, that spread around the world when travel was slow, but killed plenty. I wonder if the mutation of the virus was limited by that, as we see today it is still mutating, requiring updated vaccines every year. COVID today spreads through a population much faster, and can travel around the world much faster too. It is able to exist in very different climates and mutating amongst populations in ways that may not be possible in other environments due to a variety of factors. But that mutation may still function in those other environments.
The theory and expectation was expressed that Omicron, if it was less virulent, could be let to run through a population to build that immunity. Are we there yet? Do we really know that it is less virulent, less harmful? The UK is suggesting it is not while other places are saying it is?
I know fear for the worst. I see a high probability of shutdown we cannot yet imagine. This will include hospitals and the work places of many of us - there will be so many sick people. The infection rate is so high and as everybody can catch this it needs not be as infectious to cause huge problems. And it seems the markets think so too.
Sydney Jan 2022 will be the barometer.
It could the last pandemic variant before covid becomes endemic but there are some things it needs to check off first. The biggest being there is no conclusive data on how much immunity it provides against delta so both could circulate (and the delta variants continue the pandamic).
Is this the same Shamubeel Eaqub that recommended housing was a "really bad investment" a few years back?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/rent-dont-buy-says-economist/MP2TXZUW4XY75NXXR7ADLDM7FI/
Hopes that it would be milder than the Delta variant seem to be questioned by early surveys, and hospitals fill up with unvaccinated sufferers.
I'm just not seeing it. Early on I really thought this'd be akin to the Delta but the statistics are indicating otherwise.
UK: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
SA: https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/survei…
China's #1 online sales influencer Viya arrested for tax evasion. A whopping USD210 million. Viya was contracted by the NZ govt to promote NZ brands (Fernmark) in China.
https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/3160436/china-tech-crackdown-h…
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