Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news the grand permissive let-it-rip Omicron experiment seems to be backfiring in Australia.
ANZ says spending in Sydney and Melbourne is now near levels typical of lockdown conditions. Indeed, total ANZ-observed spending in Sydney is at its lowest point since COVID began, they say. Caution about being in public places is being compounded by staff shortages which is stifling spending across dining, retail and travel. Dining spending in Queensland and Western Australia resembles previous lockdown conditions.
Now their Treasurer has tested positive and is locked in self isolation. A number of State politicians are too.
In NSW, there were 30,062 new community cases reported yesterday, similar to the day before, now with 292,237 active locally-acquired cases (and undoubtedly an undercount), and 16 more deaths. NSW hospitals face critical staff shortages, and they have been told the number of COVID-positive people needing inpatient care could exceed 4500 within a month. They are already at 1,927. 22,104 pandemic cases in Victoria were reported yesterday, similar to the day before. There are now 83,993 active cases in that state - and there were more 4 deaths. Queensland is reporting 18,000 new cases but no new deaths. In South Australia, new cases have risen to 4274 yesterday with 5 deaths. The ACT has 1039 new cases and Tasmania 1406 new cases. Overall in Australia, 77,020 new cases were reported yesterday and their hospitalisation rates are now above peak Delta levels in some states. NSW is limiting hospital and nightclub admissions to preserve their pandemic-fighting capacity. Supermarkets are reporting more than 20% of their staff are calling in sick. Doctors say the peak won't arrive until later in the month.
It is not only Australia struggling with a permissive policy response to the pandemic. We all know about the US and the UK's public health failures, but Sweden is another under significant hospitalisation pressure.
In the US, non-farm payrolls rose only +199,000 in December in a disappointing result, half the gain that was expected. Although these payrolls are now +6.5 mln higher than year-ago levels, they are still but still -2.7 mln lower than the pre-pandemic December level (-3 mln lower on a seasonally adjusted basis).
A lack of available workers is getting the blame.
There are some positives however; their jobless rate fell to 3.9% which is better than expected. Their participation rate didn't change at 61.9%. And their average hourly earnings rose +4.7% which was more than expected. Average weekly earnings also rose +4.7%.
The US Fed will probably feel the pressure of the fall in the jobless rate and the rise in wages, even if the labour market growth is less than anticipated.
US consumer credit rose at twice the rate expected in November (although the October rise was revised down marginally). It expanded by +US$40 bln in the month, the largest monthly rise in more than ten years (and ever, if you look past some one-off statistical corrections in both 2005 and 2010). The big impetus for this growth was primarily from bank lending, rather than from the non-bank sectors.
Canada's labour market improved more than expected. There was a +123,000 jump in full-time employment and a -68,000 drop in part-time employment, pushing their jobless rate down to 5.9%. Canada's participation rate is 65.3% and unchanged. However, average hourly earnings only rose +2.7% there. Overall, these results probably also bolster the case for a Canadian rate hike 'soon'.
China's foreign exchange reserves rose marginally in December to US$3.25 tln. But it caps a year of rises taking them to their highest since the end of 2015. But recall they touched US$4 tln in late 2014, so they are still a long way below that.
Taiwan's export growth is slowing marginally, but it is still running +23% above year-ago levels.
Last week we noted that German inflation was up to 5.3% in December. Over the weekend the full EU rate was released, rising to 5.0% over the whole bloc and this is its highest ever for the EU.
An ECB manager says she sees higher energy costs embedding for the medium term as carbon taxes and the green energy transition do their thing. And for her, that means raising interest rate sooner so that energy inflation doesn't create 'energy poverty'.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.77% and unchanged since Saturday. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today marginally flatter at +89 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +108 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is little-changed at +171 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is unchanged at 1.87%. The China Govt ten year bond is also unchanged at 2.84%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is unchanged as well at 2.46%.
The price of gold started today at US$1797/oz and unchanged since Saturday.
And oil prices start today unchanged at just over US$78.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$81.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar opens today unchanged at 67.8 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are marginally firmer at 94.5 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 59.7 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts the today unchanged at 72.3.
The bitcoin price has changed little since this time Saturday, up +0.6% to US$42,075. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate however at +/- 2.2%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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127 Comments
The first five para’s here have context sufficient to signal NZ’s border will remain closed for 2022. This despite vaccination of the population having met the government’s target in the majority of the country. Nothing much can be done about that because nothing much else has been done.
Australia may be in the thick of omicron right now, but in a few weeks they will be out the other side.
https://7news.com.au/travel/coronavirus/omicron-is-ripping-through-the-…
Whereas NZ is still clinging onto an elimination and closed borders strategy at a high cost - waiting for the inevitable omicron or the next variant.
A bunch of people in Australia died with covid (not because of it). Over 400 people die in Australia every day under normal circumstances so it's inevitable that some of those same people will also have covid.
Omicron is nothing more than a mild cold for the vast majority. We should immediately stop all mRNA transfections, particularly of children. It's unethical to force a medical treatment on someone that provides inferior immunity, and carries a greater risk compared to the actual virus.
Where’s the misinformation? That children are at practically zero risk from covid?[ref] That the vaccine provides a greater risk to children that the virus itself?[ref] (and that was before omicron) That omicron spreads XX correction "evades immunity" more quickly among vaccinated people?[ref]
You know I recently watched a video of Dr Peter McCullough, a US cardiologist talking about the vaccine and natural immunity. The reason I mention it is because that guy has around 1000 publications and has an h-index of 117 apparently.[ref] Perhaps you don’t quite understand what that means. It means the guy’s a goddammed legend, he’s an extraordinary clinician. Almost certainly more qualified than any of our New Zealand government advisers. Michael Baker for instance, our own much quoted epidemiologist, has h-index of 38 according to web of science. Now I’m not saying you should listen to someone just because they’re an academic juggernaut. That would be a logical fallacy called “appeal to authority”. However, what I am saying is when someone with an h-index of 117 says something, then you’d be well advised to take it seriously. As far as I can tell from the primary literature, everything Peter McCullough says is true.
So who’s providing misinformation?
I read one of your references and it doesn't seem to support what you are claiming about Omicron. Could you cite your source that Omicron spreads faster in vaccinated individuals, because the paper you link to seems to say the opposite.
Furthermore, we show that fully vaccinated and booster-vaccinated individuals are generally less susceptible to infection compared to unvaccinated individuals (Table 2). We also show that booster-vaccinated individuals generally had a reduced transmissibility (OR: 0.72, CI: 0.56-0.92), and that unvaccinated individuals had a higher transmissibility (OR: 1.41, CI: 1.27-1.57), compared to fully vaccinated individuals.
"Fully vaccinated people who get a breakthrough infection can pass it on, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Thursday.
“Our vaccines are working exceptionally well,” Walensky told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer in reference to fully vaccinated people who get breakthrough infections. “They continue to work well for Delta, with regard to severe illness and death – they prevent it. But what they can't do anymore is prevent transmission.”
CDC provided data last week that showed how fully vaccinated people who get a breakthrough infection can carry essentially that same amount of virus as an unvaccinated person, allowing them to transmit the virus just like an unvaccinated person can."
https://edition.cnn.com/us/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updat…
It is piss poor at preventing transmission - but go ahead and see how many angels you can get on the head of that pin. "A similar situation was described for the UK. Between week 39 and 42, a total of 100.160 COVID-19 cases were reported among citizens of 60 years or older. 89.821 occurred among the fully vaccinated (89.7%), 3.395 among the unvaccinated (3.4%) [[3]]. One week before, the COVID-19 case rate per 100.000 was higher among the subgroup of the vaccinated compared to the subgroup of the unvaccinated in all age groups of 30 years or more.
...It appears to be grossly negligent to ignore the vaccinated population as a possible and relevant source of transmission when deciding about public health control measures."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(21)0025…
I've copied a small section from the abstract below - note SAR stands for Secondary Attack Rate. You're actually right I should have said "evades the immunity more quickly" not spreads more quickly. Thanks for pointing that out.
Comparing households infected with the Omicron to Delta VOC, we found an 1.17 (95%-CI: 0.99-1.38) times higher SAR for unvaccinated, 2.61 times (95%-CI: 2.34-2.90) higher for fully vaccinated and 3.66 (95%-CI: 2.65-5.05) times higher for booster-vaccinated individuals, demonstrating strong evidence of immune evasiveness of the Omicron VOC.
Yes, great video, especially the point on not being allowed to treat people with numerous and cheap repurposed drugs, (and other lifestyle change suggests) to mitigate the potential of contacting Covid and/or reducing the severity of any infection.
It's like not being allowed to fix a dangerous road or put a warning sign up but only allowed to treat them after they have been seriously injured.
They acted pretty much identical to NZ till the horse bolted late last year.
And now they're facing all manner of shortages and lost productivity because of case loads.
If your people aren't safe and healthy, you don't have much of an economy.
I'll file that next to John Keys "everyone else in the world has moved on" opinion piece from a few months ago.
Exactly. Question is it better to have Ormicron in now, or close to Winter when the Flu season is in full swing. It will get here, but delaying it until close to winter may be a disaster. there will be pain either way be the lesser of the two I would of thought will be the correct choice.
The state of the hospital system this time last year - with zero covid...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/300262252/new-zealand-hospitals…
97% of eligible Aucklanders are now fully vaccinated...
If we're not ready now, when will we ever be?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/459264/covid-19-97-percent-of-eligi…
You'd probably want to see a good 6 months of life being actually normal elsewhere, stable case numbers, with little to no disruption to services and economic activity.
That may be years. At the moment, life is mostly normal in NZ, and our border is our best defence.
Maybe unfettered international travel was a luxury of the late 20th century.
Look a complete lockout will always stop you getting a virus, no one doubts that. But whether we are "better" because of this is subjective.
My 90+ year old granny is not going to get Covid, but she will likely die of something/anything (but not covid) before she ever sees her overseas son and his family again, and when she does pass, they are unlikely to be able to attend any funeral either.
My young kids have missed months of school, social interaction, sports, and other vital developmental opportunities. They also haven't seen overseas family for years.
For months I had to work fulltime from home (on a very small dining table in a very small (yet overvalued) house), while trying to still parent my kids who were home, and simultaneously acting as their teacher. I can tell you those three things are not compatible.
There are people out of work due to business closures and mandates.
Sadly I know one person that found this all too much.
So tell me what is "better"?
I can give you a long story too, funerals missed, sick relatives that can't be visited, uncounted lost revenue across a couple of businesses, so on and so forth.
Still seems better than most overseas experience, they got all the same annoyances, if not more, and a bunch more deaths.
Again, let us know when somewhere else is doing it better.
Again - tell me what better is?
We have had more severe restrictions/lockdowns and more restrictive mandates, yet we will likely get all the covid stuff anyway. Just 2-3 years later than everyone else. Because although we locked it out, we never used that time to actually prepare. Do we have more isolation facilities, more healthcare workers, better hospital facilities?
No, we froze wages, mandated 5% of healthcare workers out of a job, and are now seeing more and more leave due to being overworked and underpaid.
But don't worry, we countered this by overseeing record house price increases. Constant supply chain issues, and as a new years resolution - record drownings.
Man, I wish everyone was better like us.
You'd want to see somewhere else having a prolonged period of stability, good economic performance, etc. Most other places are showing all the same problems, and then some.
House Price increases are prolific across the planet over the last 18 months. NZs are some of the highest, but perhaps that's a function of better pandemic management.
You're acting like this is a sprint event. Postponing it has worked well.
Catching Covid in 2021 was less dangerous than catching it in 2020. Treatments and vaccines have been developed, lowering hospitalisation and death rates.
Locking down and deferring the spread of Delta while our vaccine levels increased also appears to have treated us better.
You are 5 months old here? Greater experience would have let you realise scarcely any commenter here thought that the race against covid was a sprint. As with all NZrs, all here are painfully aware of enduring a marathon that keeps getting its distance extended & extended. There is still no finish line being offered, let alone in sight. The government’s strategy is obvious & well entrenched.The borders will not open so long as there is present, any risk of any variant of covid overwhelming health services. The government has not given any indication as to when that might be, because obviously they do not know. But unfortunately Noncent’s comment is deadly accurate. Covid will arrive inevitably, All the government has been achieving is a delaying action and unfortunately there is nothing to suggest that the dire circumstances as evidenced overseas, can be prevented from playing out too then, in New Zealand and that outcome is confirmed simply by the government’s own strategy, as explained as above, ie because the hospitals can barely cope now. It may have been forgotten that two years ago the WHO had NZ 39th in an international list of preparedness for a pandemic. Not all this government’s blame for sure but apart from the international community supplying vaccines, pharmaceuticals & guiding from experience, NZ has not introduced much at all towards improving that preparedness.
So we just sit around for years, taking a booster every 4-6 months, wearing masks everywhere and scanning our check-in/passport apps, until such time as Covid basically disappears overseas?
Are you this cautious with every other aspect of life? I presume you drive a car (despite our horrendous road toll) or go for a swim in the ocean from time to time (if this summer's numbers are anything to go by, that is a particularly dangerous pursuit in NZ!)
At the very least, if your line of thinking is what the government is planning, then they should be up front about that so people can pack up and move on with their lives. I like living in NZ, but I don't like it enough to be trapped here indefinitely, I'm not ashamed to admit that. At some stage we need to stop being held hostage by the extremely risk-averse ... we make this trade off for everything else in life.
With boosters rolling out to those who most need them, surely we are about as well protected as we ever could be? We've got the benefit of learning from Australia, UK etc - primarily that Omicron seems to pose some serious risks to supply chain/essential services due to isolation requirements - so let's work on a solution for that.
Most countries still have travel restrictions, mask mandates, boosters, etc. It's not as if it's one big party out there and we're all locked inside, quite the opposite so far. One thing our government hasn't done, which many others have to their peril is say "it's all done, we're now free" only to eat their words several months or even weeks later.
I'm not saying I'm happy with any of it, I hate working in NZ in winter and would rather sit in the sun. But this is what it is for the time being, until it isn't anymore.
Omicrons been out for what, 5-6 weeks? Things look like they're heading in a certain direction, but you'd want some more time at the very least.
dumbthoughts,
I have been following this thread and am totally with Pa1nter. Sadly, we are just not at the point where we can say "we have enough info" and move forward. Each variation throws up quite different challenges and we are seeing very clearly what will happen here if we adopt a let it rip attitude. Those who advocate that are prepared to take a huge risk with our already stretched health service.
Of course i feel sorry for those who want to come home and still can't. I have little doubt that our MIQ system could and should have become more sensitive to those in real need, but largely closed borders are still our best protection.
The government has made mistakes, but show me one that hasn't.
We are at 90% Vaccinated. We know kids are both unlikely to suffer any symptoms or act as major transmission vectors. We are in summer. Our health system has had two years to prepare.
Nearly all historic pandemics have been for about 3 years or less (Plague 1 and 2, Spanish Flu, Ebola to name a few).
So we are now likely 2/3 of the way through this one. Current information suggests Covid is matching history - New Virus emerges. First wave takes about a year. Second wave emerges that is worse and takes another year, third and subsequent waves emerge that are less damaging, with the virus becomes endemic/disappearing in the third year.
If the plan was to just wait it out, then why get everyone vaccinated/mandated and cause all the grief, more so given we knew definitively up front that the vaccine does not last 3 years?
If the plan was to vaccinate, then why not open up?
If we don't open up, then what? permanent isolation? The rest of the world will have built sufficient natural immunity, while our local populace will remain vulnerable. Historically that has not worked out so well for the locals (i.e. Pre-columbian America, Australia, NZ, etc....)
The critical factor has always been Covid overwhelming health services. It is pretty clear that threat has not been reduced even though vaccination was touted as being the solution. The government knows full well Omicron is very likely to generate admissions beyond hospital capacities, ref Profiles link above post for instance. Therefore the only recourse , as far as they are concerned, is to keep it out.
Our Flu season last year was non existent due to improved hygiene brought about by covid mitigation methods. So actually pretty difficult to say whether trying to time an outbreak makes much difference at all.
Australia's summer outbreak looks significantly more virulent than many outbreaks in countries that are in winter.
Going by DC's Sweden link the 'flu is putting their system under strain also so we may not have the luxury of not having a winter flu season..
"However, the fresh wave of COVID cases has combined with the strain of seasonal flu admissions and large numbers of staff being off sick or isolating to heap pressure on healthcare services which are being tested by repeated virus outbreaks."
Australia's summer outbreak looks significantly more virulent than many outbreaks in countries that are in winter.
You used the word "virulent" when you were trying to describe "more cases". When talking about a virus, it's virulence is not how quickly it spreads or the case numbers, it is simply how sick it makes those it infects.
It's not an argument, it's just nice people taking their time to help you out with grasping the basics.
You're welcome.
But it is possible to do that in a controlled way rather then "let it rip".
If it was me I would wait another 3 weeks while dishing out the booster, kids vaccines, and potentially learning more about Omicron (assuming we can keep it out that long). Then I would put the whole country in red light which should stop the spread somewhat and fully open the border.
Seems like a reasonable strategy to me.
Give people a firm date (e.g. "NZ citizens/residency holders will be entitled to return without MIQ from March 1st") and then focus the messaging on:
- Boosters to the most vulnerable/earliest vaccinated last year
- Working from home for those who are able to do so
- Minimising other pressures on the health system, e.g. traffic accidents, sports accidents etc
- Proper hygiene protocols, masking etc in public
We then let Omicron in, but rather than a pure "let it rip" strategy there would be at least some systems in place to slow the spread. But ideally it gets around before the winter months when everybody is stuck indoors and more prone to illness.
The issue is that fundamentally the jab is not a vaccine, it is a pre-emptive symptomatic reduction medication.
It makes sense to take it yourself to reduce your own likelihood of serious covid issues. But taking it to protect others/attain herd immunity is just not going to happen. It reduces transmission, but not materially enough to offer societal protection.
how are australia better off they already have 250000 people self isolating, industries are struggling for staff , shelves are empty, they are talking of not starting back schools as they are short teachers self isolating
and that figure will only grow day by day.
now they are talking of letting people with omicron back early,
AND they are now putting restrictions back in place,
i have no problem with covid circulating in the community like we have now as long as it is controlled, in saying that we need to roll out RAT testing everywhere faster before omicron hits here which it will (from NSW) and the quicker we can roll out boosters before it hits our shores the better, we would have got rid of delta by now if not for a few selfish rule breakers whom don't care about anyone but themselves and be enjoying another level 1 summer but still we are in a far better place for our summer holidays than many many countries
From the linked Reuters article:
While case numbers have surged, hospitalisations for COVID [in Sweden] have climbed but remain well below peaks in previous waves
I'm not sure that really suggests "significant hospitalisation pressure". High rates of immunity from vaccination and previous infection, combined with the milder omicron variant, seem to be keeping people out of hospital compared with previous outbreaks.
In the middle of a pandemic, in the middle of winter, increased load on the health system is to be expected.
Holiday period over for most - covid scaremongering now ramping back up in the media... Are the 1pm press conferences starting up again? Got to get everyone scared to get the booster and get their kids vaccinated... Also need a distraction from all the other bullsh*t going on.
Did you notice over the last couple of weeks no one really cared about the virus and enjoyed summer? What happened to Delta, where was the mass outbreaks we were told would happen? Was the virus knocking on the door of the unvaccinated?
When the hysteria drops everyone moves on...
It's safe to say the high level of vaccination is the main reason Delta hasn't kicked off here. I'm pleasantly surprised - I thought there would be enough spread among the vaccinated to keep it simmering along. This is a huge victory for vaccination.
The unvaccinated have been protected by the shield of the 90%+ of adults who stepped up for the jab, and instead of being grateful many continue to shout and scream.
The best thing to do is get exposed to Omicron as soon as possible when it arrives and get it over and done with on your terms.
No point cowering in fear and delaying the inevitable. Once you've had it you can stop caring about all the covid theatre and hysterics.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, you aren't going to get a choice. The vaccine was designed against the original Wuhan Lab Leak variant, it's ineffective at preventing Omicron infection.
Nobody is going to avoid exposure. Best to just get it over and done with as quickly as possible at a time of your choosing.
In the US, non-farm payrolls rose only +199,000 in December in a disappointing result, half the gain that was expected.
Taper Discretion Means Not Loving Payrolls Anymore
Interesting, isn’t it, that in today’s payroll report, the Establishment Survey’s deceleration revealed by it and these ongoing “misses” factor nothing in mainstream assessments of continuing double taper along with further expectations for triple rate hikes or better.
In other words, even though it just may be the labor market has really slowed down, this doesn’t seem like it will matter to those at the Fed who have given themselves the discretion to pick and choose data as they like.
What they like is, apparently, the unemployment rate and now wage data. But as I said to Emil, I don’t actually believe they actually believe in the wage data, either. I seriously question the official commitment to the unemployment rate, too.
Last week we noted that German inflation was up to 5.3% in December. Over the weekend the full EU rate was released, rising to 5.0% over the whole bloc and this is its highest ever for the EU.
Good Morning from #Germany where financial repression continues. Real yield (10y Bunds-inflation) rises slightly to -5.36% b/c yields have recently risen more sharply than inflation. Inflation accelerated to 5.3% in Dec from 5.2% in Nov. Real yields now NEGATIVE for 68 cons mths .Link
If we get down to negative double digit real returns we will see the money printer crank like never before. Listened to a great podcast with Preston Pysh on the drive home yesterday, fantastic mind. The Investors Podcast, We study Billionaires, highly worth the listen.
Looking at houses for sell in Hamilton in trademe, now majority 80% houses are on negotiation or deadline sale in contrast to earlier when majority was under auction and the same trend can be felt in Christchurch.
BUT when checking asking price is still high despite not being sold, indicating no acceptance by vendor or may be are not serious sellers.
Is it due to holiday season but was not the same last year, where auction were the first choice. Has anyone observed and feel the same and what about in Auckland.
Maybe another round of closure in Aucland with new variant of virus will give another excuse for more pumping of money by government, which may help to reignite the firet hat is, if it is actually slowing as have doubts that ponzi can stop when everyone knows, how desperate government and RBNZ are to support and promote, being only economy in NZ, thanks to their policy of least regret and their attitue of acting overnight to act first and than think when it comes to supporting the ponzi and if otherwise than hide behind watch and wait police which has been blatantly flouted by Mr Orr ( Now even their godfather Mr Powell / fed in USA is facing the heat and changing his tune).
May be reserve banks role will be redefined in time to come with more accountability instead of acting on whims and fancy of few in reserve bank.
In my conspiracy theory Omicron will be the next RBNZ excuse to not increase interest rates and hence support the ponzi... however if in Feb RBNZ doesnt increase OCR, and FED does increase in March, would this not crush NZD and send retail rates even higher ? If it was up to Orr to choose whether to sink housing or sink NZD i think he'd of course sink NZD - 'Supporting Exporters etc'; but offshore capital would demand even more premium to invest here (?)... does he even have any option to prevent housing from going down ?
The shows over folks
Bought 10th Nov 21 for $706k
Now, negotiable over $699k
CV Aug 2019 is $370k
https://homes.co.nz/address/rangiora/rangiora/32-seddon-street/yaGnO?se…
What about WA? I'm not looking for 'gotcha!' statistics or click-worthy reports, just the occasional check-in on how they're going.
Population 2.8 million. Pretty hard border with self-quarantine seemingly common.
~1200 covid cases to date
rolling 7-day average of 10 cases per day.
Due to 'open up' on Feb 5th but I imagine they aren't sure about that any more.
https://ww2.health.wa.gov.au/Media-releases/2022/COVID-19-update-9-Janu…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-08/omicron-effect-wa-covid-modellin…
There problem was created by the retarded person that created the law over in Germany that any nuclear waste had to be stored safe for one million years. Pretty sure that making a container that lasts 1 million years and storing that in a facility that lasts 1 million years is pretty difficult so they are closing reactors when other countries next door are still building them.
Wife & l in Brisbane , both had Omicron recently , wife had a 3 day cold.
l had very little symptoms , in our 60s , dbl vac , healthy .
Life here fairly normal , just have to wear mask in some buildings.
The Media are loving the high daily count , that isnt the problem ,
that may turn out to be for the best .
Very rapid infection rate the next 3 weeks , then rapid fall , ENDEMIC .
The problem is staff shortages.....
Whats the plan fellow kiwis , you have time to lean from ozzys mistakes
NZs plan is to drag this out for the entire year & destroy our econony more whilst creating further wealth inequality. 2023 it'll be deemed endemic and the Government will praise itself for protecting the team of 5 million... Boomers will love it, the young will suffer.
Home loans crisis: ‘I’ve had people in tears. I’ve had people shouting at me’
"Bawden says it’s only a matter of time before borrowers who have their pre-approved finance taken away complain to the Banking Ombudsman ... "
lmao
Health Crisis - COVID-19 is one of the the biggest ever faced by living mankind and is followed by housing crisis /Personal debt which is a curse gifted by likes of Orr and Jacinda Arden.
Pandemic may go in a year or two but damage done by people in power for vested biased power / interest will stay for years to come.
Next will be mental health Crisis.
was speaking to some mom and dad builders, who are shit scared as are not able to find buyer for their matchbox houses (As had paid a premium for the house with section as were definite that will be able to sell the matchboxes at premium, so did not mind paying premium on top of premium) and now their friends who were planning to buy house with section anywhere from 600sqmts onwards for fast money, just as their friends did by using the existing equity in house are backing out.
Is it because of bank finance or sanity (Fundamental realization).
Defination of mum n dad builders have changed as are now not building one house or two but number of houses and many have over stretched beyond with assurance from their realestate friends that come what may will be able to sell their newbuild tiny house (Rich new look million dollar slums) for a premium and why not when have support from head of reserve bank and government - giving a toss to fundamentals but for how long. ????
I agree, in a pandemic situation like what we currently find ourselves in, we should be very clearly able to identify who was hospitalised for Covid and who died from Covid, as opposed to those that simply had covid at the time of their admittance/passing.
A person rocking up to ED due to falling off a ladder, being shot in a driveway, or involved in a car crash but having covid, should not be forming the basis of any numbers used to determine and manage a successful response.
Lets look at a plausible counterfactual scenario:
It's early 2020 and National are in power with Act support.
Covid strikes and the prime minister, Judith Collins, boldly steps up to the plate and pronounces that the country will 'ride out the pandemic' with no lock-downs or vaccinations and that the country will opt for herd immunity in keeping with National's ideology of laissez-faire non-interference with business.
Result based on NZ's last Pandemic, the "1918 Spanish Flu", is 45,000 dead. (Spanish Flu actual dead= 9000 with a population of 1 million; so 5x 9000=45,000 with today's population of 5 million.)
So what, say the Anti-Arderns and Anti-vaxxers (the AAs and AVs). They say that the 45,000 deaths comprise an expendable bunch of old grannies, but after a futile attempt to suppress the age-groups of the dead, it is revealed that in actual fact huge swaths of all age groups, including 20,000 under- forties have succumbed, again based on 1918 pandemic.
Collins strenuously denies that 40,000 under-forties have died of Covid and scrambling desperately to determine an alternative cause of their deaths attributes them to the coming into force of David Seymour's End-of-Life Act whereby these 40,000 young deaths are the result of their having had other non-Covid terminal illnesses and have wished for a release for their torments. In the face of months of overwhelming evidence, even granny Herald admits there has been a National Party cover-up and Collins and company are impeached for demographic genocide.
Your counter factual is a bit extreme.
Really, it is pointless blaming different countries or different governments for the COVID experience.
This is the first time in known human history that every single country in the world is facing the same major issue - epidemic or pandemic. So every state will be facing and accelerating/implementing mandates, digital passes, contactless payments, mass vaccinations etc. All at various timelines but all facing the same issues and implementing the same/similar policies. It is out of human control to a large extent and is unsettling to every human and their activities.
The major blame for this global phenomenon lies with the origin and motivation.
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