Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news inflation's pressure and higher interest rates are spreading around the world.
But first, American retail sales held their high levels last week, up more than +15% from year-ago levels although base year effects embellish that. All the same, it is a good positive result and better than anticipated.
US mortgage rates are now all turning noticeably higher with their benchmark 30yr fixed almost back to levels last seen two years ago. But while they are in a longish term shift lower for mortgage applications, this latest jump in rates hasn't hurt recent application levels.
Canada’s headline inflation rate rose faster to 4.8% in December from 4.7% in November and October, matching market expectations. Their 'core' inflation rate rose quicker. That was the steepest inflation rate in 30 years, amid ongoing supply disruptions and low base year effects.
China is drafting nationwide rules to make it easier for property developers there to access funds from sales still held in escrow accounts in its latest move to ease a severe cash crunch in the sector. China Evergrande, which was once China's top-selling developer, is now the world's most indebted property firm with liabilities in excess of US$300 bln and essentially in State administration. All Chinese property developers have almost US$20 bln in offshore debt maturing in the first quarter of 2022, the highest level since 2015.
The iron ore price rose to a four month high on the news of renewed Chinese stimulus.
Meanwhile, China is buying up the world's available wheat supplies, putting sharp upward pressure on prices. Global wheat prices are up +23% in a year and China's imports rose +17% in the same time, an increase of almost 10 mln tonnes in 2021. A key driver is a shift in diet towards bread in China, but high corn prices for animal feed bolstered demand. The local harvest of wheat in 2021 was down too.
Germany reported a 5.3% December inflation rate, although this is 5.7% on an EU harmonised basis. The UK reported its full December inflation rate at 5.4% (although they no longer have to declare a standardised European rate of course).
And in Germany, their 10yr government bond yield turned positive for the first time since May 2019.
In Australia, a big player in the self managed super fund sector, Dixon Advisory, has said it wants to go in to voluntary liquidation, a move that will affect tens of thousands of retirees there. The move is in response to mounting class action claims over how they managed the investments. It claims to "support over 8000 Australian trustees".
And staying in Australia, international students and backpackers will have their visa fees refunded for the coming weeks in a bid to entice them back to the country to fill critical worker shortages.
In NSW, there were 32,297 new community cases reported yesterday, a small rise, now with 302,453 active locally-acquired cases (and undoubtedly an undercount), and 32 more deaths. There are now 2,863 in hospital there. In Victoria they reported 20,769 more new infections yesterday. There are now 236,177 active cases in that state - and there were 18 more deaths. Queensland is reporting 19,932 new cases and 11 new deaths. In South Australia, new cases have risen to 3,482 yesterday with 6 more deaths. The ACT has 1467 new cases and Tasmania 1185 new cases. Overall in Australia, 79,552 new cases were reported.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.84% and down -2 bps from where this time yesterday and giving up some of yesterday's shift higher. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today marginally steeper at +83 bps. Their 1-5 curve is little-changed at +108 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is unchanged at +180 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -1 bp at 1.97%. The China Govt ten year bond is down -2 bps at 2.75%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is up +8 bps at 2.60%.
Wall Street has given up an early recovery to now be down just -0.1% on the S&P500. Overnight European markets recovered about +0.4%. Yesterday, Tokyo fell -2.80%, Hong Kong ended flat but Shanghai fell -0.3%. The ASX200 was down a full -1.0% yesterday, but the NZX50 fell harder, down -1.6%.
The price of gold starts today at US$1840/oz and a +US$25 shift higher.
And oil prices start today up +US$2.50 at just under US$86.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$88.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today marginally firmer at 67.9 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are softish at 94 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 59.8 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts the today at 72.3 and a minor rise since this time yesterday.
The bitcoin price has moved sideways again, this time by +0.7% to US$41,921. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.8%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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184 Comments
The interest rates haven’t gone up in the US yet… sure, a lot of talk, but I don’t think people are convinced the Fed will ever actually do it. Boy who cried wolf, etc. Wait til they actually do it. They say the moves are priced in already but… we’ll see. The fluff (unprofitable tech) has already taken a hammering, we’ll see if the big names follow.
Equity market has crashed (40% to 80%) except few blue chips companies that reflect on index ( hence index though down but not as much) though even they are down by 10% to 20% from ATH and am talking about US stock market and this may just be the beginning.
Many investors specially this new / young who entered after pandemic are bleeding and they experiencing such a bloodbath for the first time. Those who invested and got out, making heaps are lucky.
Fundamentals have to catch up. By printing and pumping money may delay the inevitable but makes it worse, when it happens.
2022 is and will be interesting year as reserve banks are in catch22 situation - screwed and they themselves are responsible for the same.
What is inflation?
If we define inflation as an increase in 'price' then any and all inflation must be either an increase in the price of labour or an increase in profit taking......or a combination of the two.
Ipso facto if we wish to reduce inflation at least one of those factors must decrease.
Which of those factors is productive?
Sorry but there are no other factors involved.
Everything, and i mean everything's price is made up of those two factors.....anything else is obfuscation.
All resources are free...converting (protecting) those resources requires labour.
All capital investment requires labour.
Anything that is not labour is profit.
The equation is simple...Price (P) = labour (l) + profit (p)
It relates in that all of the 'price' increase in housing that is not the result of labour (relatively easlly measured) is profit.
Did the labour cost of constructing a house increase by 200-300K last year?....Id suggest not.
The difference is profit....the questions then become where did those profits go and what is the impact of them not going there?
Dangerous?...is truth dangerous, I guess it could be,
We currently manipulate labour costs all the time so nothing is changed by recognising the components of price. The purpose of interest rate increases is to restrain (or even reduce) the price of labour...so wheres the difference?
I'd suggest the implication is that we could reduce the profit before we seek to reduce the price of labour....but ultimately my point is that nothing occurs without labour....and I mean nothing.
I'm not sure what u say is a "truth", just as what I say is probably not the "truth".
The purpose of interest rates, as practiced by Central Banks, is to influence the demand for credit ( money ). And thru that ..reduce aggregate demand.
For me, having a more "honest" Monetary system is a far better path to go down , rather than trying to control wages or profits.
The wealth of a Nation is a function of Natural resources + work ethic + productivity ( innovation/education).
Both Labour and Capital ( entrepreneurs ), are valuable.... Entrepreneurs probably a little more so... as they are the risk takers that create jobs.
Wage and price/profit controls diminish the "wealth of a Nation".
keeping in mind ,the context of what we are discussing is "inflation".
Thats my view... which Im simply sharing.
You appear to be defining "profit" as including the cost of capital. So for example, a house built and sold by a developer - Land cost $400k, materials cost $300k, Labour cost $200k = Sold for $1.3m. Your definition of profit I presume is $1.1m. IRD and the developer would calculate profit as $400k ($1.3m sale price less costs of $900k). I presume your profit includes the amounts charged by vendors of the materials and the land to developer of $700k?
If the above is correct you are essentially assigning a nil value to all capital components e.g. land was free so all subsequent pricing and sale of land is "profit"?
What is the cost of capital?
Take land for example, it exists and the 'cost' is the sum of the labour needed to seize, protect and develop it....and profit.
Now you may wish to purchase that land and may wish to borrow to do so, then you have a "cost of money" or interest....and that is itself labour and profit (very little labour and mainly profit).
As said everything's price is the sum of labour and profit.
Do the equation...calculate the price of anything if the labour cost is zero.
So in my example the developer paid $400k for the land, say he paid for it in cash. Are you saying the cost was zero and that if he sold the land for $400k he would have made a profit of $400k? Or are you saying the cost of the land is in fact labour?
Also, where are you going with this claim? What's the point?
The point is if we are going to control inflation (rising prices) it helps to understand what it is. As stated there are only two factors contributing to price so to control price you must control one or both of those factors....my inclination is to control profit before labour, especially at the bottom end.
Time is one big factor. Shipping for example. If a ship usually spends 3 days in each port on a round trip, offloading cargo and loading cargo etc, and that suddenly turns into 10 days in each port? Suddenly the time at sea triples, with overheads such as wages/fuel/maintenance etc being covered by less "transactions", but those costs are still there. The workers can't take a pay cut.
I strongly disagree with Franks assertions that:
1/ Inflation is defined as simply a "increase in price"
2/ that the cure to inflation is to control wages and prices ( profits ). ie. reduce wages and/or profits
3/ That the purpose of interest rate increases is to restrain the price of labour.
I dont need to refute anything.. I just disagree. You and he are free to believe whatever you like. ( and economics is a field where there are plenty of differing points of view)
I'd suggest that those 3 points I've listed above are kinda unusual ideas...
Reminds me of the Wage and price freezes that Muldoon brought in back in the early 1980s'... I'd say is was proved to be a failed idea.
How would you define 'inflation' if you say it is not simply and increase in price then?
By putting it this simply Frank strips away the BS put around if by politicians, bankers and profiteers.
To use an example where a developer purchased land for $400K is just rubbish. the cost of the land in that case was $400K, but who did the developer buy it from? The point Frank is making is that any resource is free until someone wants to use it, then it takes effort - labour or energy to use it. Land is a little difficult as an example because it is well over 200 years since it was just around for the taking (by colonists, or 600 by Maori). Use a different example, like the sea. Take a block of sea in the middle of the pacific ocean, well beyond any nations national interests. You can have it, but as soon as you try to use it it will cost you the effort to go there, then it will cost you the materials and effort to establish yourself there, then it will cost you the effort and the materials to do something productive with it, on it or under it. But it still cost you nothing to 'have' it in the first place. ('Have' is inadequate because in modern terms it would cost you to establish your ownership of it) Just establishing governance over a resource imposes a cost/value on it, but until that happens it is still free. But once governance is established then becomes the cost of defending it.....
The cost of building a house at the lower end has gone up about $500 a square metre over the last 2 years in the markets I operate in, or around 25%.
The people building the houses are making less money than ever, because every aspect of building has increased. Completion times are double or more due to shortages and lockdowns. Materials I'd say are up an average of 20-30%. So is labour, if you can find it.
I'd anticipate this year being a bit of a crunch time for some operators with thin margins.
Different markets will feel it at different speeds and intensities. Aucklands population is shrinking, and intensity being ramped up, so that'll be first to go. The regions maybe another 12-18 months later, although the flow of boomers leaving the cities will likely stay fairly constant for a fair while.
Simply put, with rising interest rates and construction costs, crazy prices plus the CCCFA there will be a vastly shrinking pool of buyers for townhouses in Auckland, who have been mostly made up of FHBs and investors.
Do you agree on my prognosis for Auckland?
I agree the regions might keep doing OK for a while.
Yep that's why I think interest rate rises will stop by August and might reverse late this year / early next year.
People are forgetting that the RBNZ has employment and financial stability mandates as well as inflation.
I am not saying that's right or wrong, but it's a fact.
At that point, time to start a Ministry of Works to employ good builders and get them building both infrastructure and housing, as well as training apprentices. It once did play that role of smoothing supply of results and of good tradespeople even through the down times.
Frank,
Say Im a counterfeiter of money and that my new money is accepted .
I can pretty much print as much money as I want and "appropriate" whatever Wealth I want thru spending that money.
As I printed money and gave it to my mates.... the effects of this increase in the money supply would manifest in various ways.
Obviously.... with every $ of new money I print, I'm devaluing the value of every dollar already in existence. ( you could say that my new money "appropriates" value from already existing money..... Its akin to a tax.... a wealth transfer mechanism )
Call this whole process "Monetary inflation".
This has nothing to do with price, profit or labour... ( Thou Monetary inflation has a profound impact on all those things , in various ways ).
Prices go up , but it is a function of the diminishing value of a $dollar as more and more $dollars are printed.
If I keep printing money and repress wages or profits ( wage and price freeze ), which might fool people into thinking I am fighting inflation.... this might give a "distorted" temporary relief.... for a little while.
This will give me a little more space ... to appropriate more , with my new money...
For as long as I can counterfeit money and get away with it..... I will appropriate more and more "real" wealth.... I will become the rich 1% and wealth inequality will prevail.
just my view...
But the Government is not counterfeiting money, otherwise your point is well made. If they are careless with where they spend their money, created or taxed, then it can undermine the economy and cause many problems. There are many examples of that around the world, and I'd have to say our Government has been careless to a degree so far. But Frank's point is still valid, if there has not been an increase in the cost of providing a resource, the the extra cost is profit.
I dont think Franks equation is true... The extra cost , in an inflationary climate, has probably more to do with rising input costs, than it has to do with "profit gouging", as u imply.
Why is it that sharemarkets perform poorly during inflationary eras..??
For me, in a first principles sense, it starts with Money Supply.... ie..Monetary inflation
Ps.. I consider the Private Sector banking system and Govt Central banks as being akin to counterfeiters of money. As an analogy , the counterfeiter "model/story" shows how wealth flows to a beneficial few.
Maybe not the government but banks could be accused of doing so.
Banks don't take deposits and they never lend money. They are in the business of purchasing securities. When one gets a bank loan, the loan contract is a promissory note. The bank purchases that contract from the borrower. Now the bank owes the borrower money and it creates a record of the money it owes, which we call deposits - source.
I owe you + you owe me + magic banking laws = Money out of thin air.
The wealth component is the cash flows (interest) accruing to the banks and depositors, the capital component is extinguished upon liquidation (payment) of the loan.
Yes you can debase the currency but the equation still holds...price remains p+l.
There are a number of implications, especially in a world of relative currencies, one being at what point is it more 'cost effective' to use your labour to seize desired resources rather than trade for them?...and how much labour can you commit to defending rather than converting resources?
That's demand. That's why there is cost involved. If there is no demand, the cost doesn't matter any more. Let me put it as a scenario. You and I are both on a completely isolated island. I have a phone and an apple. You have some water. I only need water and the apple, you only need water and the apple too. So if I offer my phone to exchange your water, will you accept it? Absolutely not. In this case, the phone is free and worth nothing. Was there a cost to make the phone? Yes. It costs more than apple and water. But it doesn't matter cause the phone is free now.
"That's demand." Now you're imposing an artificial construct we call a 'market'. Economists will tell you that price is set by the costs of a product plus a factor set by demand. When demand is used in pricing a product, as Frank points out, if that price is still above what it cost to produce the product then the seller is profiteering. Go to an auction and you will see demand in action.
If we define inflation as an increase in 'price' then any and all inflation must be either an increase in the price of labour or an increase in profit taking......or a combination of the two.
I don't want to explain too much here as I have already explained above. But an increase in price doesn't mean there will be an increase in profit taking and cost. hence a decrease in price doesn't mean there will be a decrease in profit taking and cost. There is a term called market concentration. Market is real, it's not an artificial construct. There are factors can influence market. But that doesn't make market as an artificial construct.
You don't understand the term 'artificial construct'. A market is artificial, it is created by man and his activities. With in a market an increase in price must stem from either an increase in cost or an increase in profit taking if not both. There can be no other explanation.
Perhaps this may help
Basically what happens is that the price of everything goes up and the reserve bank and retail banks don't want to be left out, so they increase the price of money too. Eventually it gets to a point where everything becomes too expensive, people can't afford to buy, business go bust, jobs are cut and inflation is solved.
Sanity returning. "LONDON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - People in England will no longer be required to wear face masks anywhere or work from home from next week". When will our face mask BS end?
"Cloth and surgical masks caught 10 to 12 percent of aerosols breathed out in the experiment.
...The results also suggest that, while higher ventilation capacities are required to fully mitigate aerosol build-up, even relatively low air-change rates ( 2 h−1) lead to lower aerosol build-up compared to the best performing mask in an unventilated space."
Goes to show that this has always been a primarily political issue. Boris' political capital is exhausted due to his bacchanalian ways causing public outrage; dropping all Covid restrictions is a counter to this (not that I would be complaining if I lived in the UK).
Will be interesting to see if dominoes fall elsewhere. I see the new Czech government, for example, has dropped the previous one's mandatory vaccination plan.
Again, this is another country that's already felt the pain. If NZ's covid approach mimicked Czechoslovakia, we'd have around another 17000 dead kiwis.
We will also go though the pain, and then remove masks etc. If we come through with substantially less loss of life I can't see how that's a bad thing. If anything, we should be proud of how we've conducted ourselves, assuming we deem protecting life to be a good thing. All the economic stuff still would've sucked regardless.
Border restrictions are explicitly recognised in international law as a right that may be lawfully restricted during a public emergency.
Refer bottom right hand corner of page 4.
While international law permits certain restricitions on freedom of movement, including for reasons of security and national emergency like health emergencies, restrictions on free movement should be strictly necessary for that purpose, proportionate and non-discriminatory.
The full quote. Restrictions on free movement should be strictly necessary for that purpose i.e. the purpose of a national health emergency, like a pandemic. Proportionate, well we have an MIQ system that allows movement but limits. And non-discriminatory, well it's a lottery system so that doesn't discriminate. One can argue people are queue jumping, but do we have any evidence?
If you would like to educate yourself further on the issues a great place to begin is here:
I'd say the border closure/MIQ was clearly proportionate in the early days of Covid (and this is coming from someone who is fundamentally opposed to it). We all saw the videos from Italian and Chinese hospitals, and it has clearly benefitted us in terms of reduced deaths and serious illness.
However, getting into year three of this we now have a highly vaccinated population, the most vulnerable have had a chance already to go out and get boosted, and anybody wanting to board a plane to NZ has to be vaccinated, plus Omicron is clearly nowhere near as deadly - the biggest risk it poses at a societal level is not a health emergency per se, but a supply chain crisis due to people having to isolate (which could be mitigated if we took the approach of saying "stay at home if you feel ill, come to work if you feel ok" as opposed to trying to uncover ever asymptomatic case via testing like they've done in Australia).
What was very arguably a proportionate measure for original Covid and Delta (until we got the vaccination rate up) is arguably disproportionate and excessive now.
Of course with MIQ the government could claim they weren't really preventing you from getting home - just that airlines wouldn't let you board without a valid MIQ voucher. But now there is de facto no MIQ as the slots have been cancelled, that argument falls over too - the border has gone from "technically open if you can get a voucher" to indefinitely shut. That is a very different scenario.
If the government is so confident in the proportionality of the border closure at this point in time, why would they push for the Grounded Kiwis case to be delayed?
The problems you're trying to ram down everyone's throats here are also directly related to your own personal experience almost exclusively. That's a weird coincidence, oh open minded one.
As if everyone doesn't know someone that's had a personal loss they haven't been able to grieve in person.
Your upset is understandable, but your anger is somewhat misguided. Put on your big boy pants and move on.
You make it sound like covid is something you either resist, or complete like some sort of finite task or project.
I'm meaning for you personally. You managed to get out of wherever you were back to NZ, eventually. You also worked out the sort of property you wanted has become too expensive where you wanted to buy it, so have found an alternative location and are making motions towards moving there.
Someone with more emotional intelligence would have well moved on by now, and diverted their energy on more fruitful trains of thought. But instead its "mean Jacinda made pooh pooh go bad, I go red sandpit" over, and over, and over again, like some sort of manchild.
And you talk about others being cliche'.
Omicron is the end of the pandemic and getting to endemic covid is a national task to complete. The rest of the world is putting on their big boy pants and moving on with it.
So personally is more like when the guidance counsellor studies your academics and suggests a career in painting?
The person who seems to bring up my plans over and over again is you. The tall poppy syndrome is very triggered by the thought of it. The obsession is creepy. Really, I'm just not that into you.
Discussing abysmal leadership is a feature of democracies. I am sorry that offends you.
An interesting podcast: https://www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/how-to-build-a-happy-life/
Not required to take onboard everything that is said, but reading some of the comments lately it feels like joy is being sucked out of a lot of people and it's leading to some pretty disdainful, bitter commenting and bickering on this site (the change in the short time I have been a member is palpable).
Brock Landers
When NZders travel overseas they should be aware that they are automatically putting themselves at more risk than usual for any number of reasons including the unforeseen advent of a pandemic.
During my OE in UK in 1974 a mate and myself were not as aware of the Irish Terrorist bombings as we should have been. We were heading thru Birmingham on the way to Chester to watch a nearby motor race in Oulton Park. We stayed overnight in Birmingham and did a bit of a pub crawl. That night there was a pub bombing near where we were staying in which many young people were killed. We could have easily visited that pub...it was only pure chance that we didn't. When we reached Chester we had trouble finding a cheap hotel we had seen advertised in an Auto Assoc guide. We decided to park on a yellow line (illegal) for a short time hoping to find the hotel on foot. On our return to the car about half a dozen plain clothed men emerged from the shadows and made us drive with them to police head-quarters...we had been arrested (on suspicion of being Irish terrorists planting a car bomb) and spent the night in prison while they checked out our passport details (no computers those days) and had the car minutely inspected. And we had no idea of what we had been arrested for until the next day...all in all a very frightening experience.
And all those Australians killed in the Bali bombing.
I mean it's not as though we're condemning those NZders overseas to the front lines of a war like the many NZders killed or severely wounded in WW1 and WW2. And those guys couldn't just up sticks and return to NZ despite the frightful mortal dangers they faced.
The overseas NZders that you're referring to are merely inconvenienced, not mortally threatened. Like yourself they are being somewhat precious and selfish.
I personally think we should be even more stringent at the borders because that is how Omicron will surely enter.
Given the death rates were 75% higher in 1974 than they were in 2020 I'm surprised you were allowed to travel at all. There must have been bodies everywhere.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarr…
It's not a force of nature or a terrorist incident locking overseas kiwis out. It's just incompetent government policy.
We are two years into this thing now. It's disgusting that you would call them precious and selfish.
Omicron is going to enter. It cannot be stopped. Fortress New Zealand is an unsustainable charade.
Nice story from '74 but I am not sure quite how analogous it is with what is happening now. The border restrictions are causing all sorts of harm. The obvious ones appear in news stories everyday, but there are so many more scenarios.
What about those Kiwis stuck overseas on expired visas (which comes with serious consequences in some countries such as significant overstay penalties and being banned for a period of time or even forever in returning to that country (which they may have a connection to)).
What about my sister in law who was just diagnosed with serious cancer at age 36 that needs an operation? She is single and her closest relative / best friend is my wife, 10,000 km away. My Mrs can fly out to visit her but how long will it be until she can get back? What happens to her best? To her relationship with me?
What about those Kiwis stuck overseas whose money is running / has run out? That's an unimaginable situation to be in, especially if you don't have family / friends who can help out.
I get it that some people are scared and want to keep Omicron out but let's face the facts: Omicron looks like it's here already and even if the few cases in the community are stamped out, it will break through very soon. Once that happens it's going to spread like wildfire. At that point the border should open. There would seem to be no reason to keep the border closed once Omicron is spreading like crazy......and that day is getting closer and closer.
We do need to do everything we can to protect those in high-risk groups - and that is where current efforts should really be focused - but at the same time what we're doing to so many Kiwis both in and out of the country by keeping the border closed is, in my opinion, criminal.
earlyriser loving your work.
lf Omicron is in nz now , it wont be stamped out or even slowed down.
A lockdown may slow it down but Jacinda wont go there , lose to many votes.
Jacinda & her media have done a good job of dividing & conquering .
lot of fear & hate out there , she may have over played her hand.
lot of kiwis broken financially & mentally here in oz.....
living in cars & tents........just like back in nz..
I'm not arguing that NZ hasn't done better in terms of deaths/illnesses (the numbers don't lie on this - although I also don't think the UK, or Czech Republic, or any one of these more connected countries could have ever seen the same outcome as NZ due to the higher inflows and outflows of people, more porous borders etc) ... more that it is clear how much of the motivation to move to a 'Post-Covid Restrictions' world is driven off politics. Restrictions being the imperative word as nobody thinks we will eliminate Covid, just learn to live with it like we do many other diseases.
What will be interesting to see here is if other countries starting to move forward has an impact on the public mood here. Once people start seeing the likes of the UK going back to normal - and the world not ending because of it - will the political capital to keep maintaining seemingly indefinite restrictions run dry in NZ?
We moved relatively early and we took community outbreaks very seriously. We have high degrees of community compliance relative to most of those countries. The combination of those has been key to our success.
Our position is lucky but plenty of other islands have faired a lot worse.
The 20th century and 1st decade of the 21st had higher age adjusted death rates.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarr…
Thanks for the link, I had a look myself, US mortality rate for 2020 is up 14% above the 5y mean and the highest it has been since 2002. Whereas NZ is 10% up on the 5y mean, the highest since 2005 which is close to triple the covid related deaths, which includes people who died of gunshot wounds while also being positive for covid.
It is interesting we measure and promote how we get to zero survival rate.
For instance, since Covid measures also stopped influenza we are saving approx 600 deaths per year which we accepted as an acceptable risk, so after two years we have about 1200 deaths saved up we can use somewhere else to keep the of deaths at the historical average. And haven't heard boo from the MSM about suicides so Covid measures must have stopped them as well, or is it just Covid is more newsworthy than suicide.
But given that we are now approx. 50,000 screening tests behind in picking up other illnesses like cancers, we might be a few death savings short over the long term.
Same with our record drownings this year. It was easily forecasted a decade or so ago that when the Govt. stopped supporting school pools and swimming lessons, that, in the future ie now, we would see an increase in drownings. Would be interesting to pull out a few Minister of Education names from then and to the present to ask them why they thought this was OK and is still OK.
But isn't the point is to reduce direction and distance of aerosol spread (i.e. slow aerosol spread), what you're quoting is irrelevant for that as no one is claiming that masks prevent aerosols anyway. They do however lessen the chance of you coming in contact with aerosol clouds if you're in brief contact with people.
"Measurements demonstrate that all tested masks provide protection in the immediate vicinity of the host primarily through the redirection and reduction of expiratory momentum"
Your may be factually correct but is very misleading (as per usual) due to its irrelevance to the actual reason masks are recommended.
Get some fresh air Pluto - "The results highlight that (i) considerable relative aerosol concentration levels can be reached at a 2 m distance from the subject in an unventilated space, and even when the subject is equipped with a mask, the relative concentrations are notably higher than those expected based on the ideal/rated efficiency of the masks; (ii) fit of the mask to the face, in terms of limiting leakage around the mask perimeter, is critical for limiting aerosol dispersion in an unventilated space, especially for high efficiency masks (e.g., N95/KN95); and (iii) increased ventilation/air-cleaning capacity significantly reduces the transmission risk in an indoor environment, surpassing the apparent mask filtration efficacy even at relatively low air-change rates ( ∼2 room volumes per hour)."
That was the narrative but there is limited evidence that masks and the mandating of mask ever worked. They made some sense when public health was telling us it was droplet spread but it was known from day 1 that it would do very little for aerosol spread.
When we see articles telling us we need N95 masks for omicron that's an admission that masks never worked. The virus has not changed in size and there is no known reason to believe it's external survivability has increased.
We plan to elect people with "business experience" to sell off our food production capacity into overseas ownership for short term returns under the thinking that "they can't take the land and we can always legislate over it". As food security becomes a major issue of the 21st century we'll be able to enjoy our famine.
I wonder how much of present China's economic issues could be attributed to playing the world's biggest game of Whac-A-Mole with Covid-19?
Also early research on booster shots is indicating they might not be doing much to prevent Omicron: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)0009…
Albert Bourla CEO has stated they are aware their vaccine offers less protection against omicron. Boosters will restore some of that but hence they are developing a new vaccine accordingly. Obviously neither the NZ government in selecting Pfizer, or anyone else for that matter, can be blamed for not allowing for this. But nevertheless omicron is now poised to march through New Zealand unrelentingly. While there is some opinion that omicron is “less deadly” NZ has nothing in hand better than say NSW, who in fact have a better ratio per person for hospital services etc. If omicron’s full onset is delayed until winter NZ might find its people experiencing all the devastation witnessed elsewhere in the world and this risk has been exacerbated by the isolation policy to date, providing little natural immunity in the community
It’s worse than that. Mummy decides what to do (eg lower Waikato alert level or open to Australia) and then asks what the health advice would be in the context of doing it. Thus…’we took the health advice’. Health advice is not the primary decision point. Yet more govt spin for the masses swallowed whole.
It seem as if ‘self home isolation’ will be the future of international travel but the issue is for the jetsetters is that they want to fly home from holidays and get back to the office the next day not faff around at home while triple vaccinated.
I recommend optional self shielding during the 2022 surge for the unvaccinated or those at higher risk of a bad outcome rather than year of Nanny Omicron State before next summer holidays.
I also fear these delays to border reopening that push potential Omicron spread into months when socialisation moves indoors, Vitamin D levels are lowered and hospitals are already under pressure from influenza.
There is also a remote risk that the New Zealand court system may contend that New Zealanders have rights even if they live abroad. After two years of denying people those rights repetitions could be extraordinarily expensive given the huge number of potential plantiffs in a court action.
Omicron is not the last and has been researched that will keep on having new variant but less deadly and should be treated like flu - endemic.
With government approach, be prepare for another round of lockdown from 2 months to 4 months as this government knows best.
Does anyone know any other country which has barred it's citizen to return back.
nice work foxy , here in Brisbane 11 deaths yesterday
several in there 90s + 1 over 100 years old.
make sure the oldies are boostered.
but the biggest problem is staff shortages...
come on kiwis how will this be sorted.
gov has had plenty of time , you think this xmas
they would have kept working & have plans in place
Fairly easy to predict a plan given the instruments of repression for nigh on two years. All of NZ will red lighted. Regional travel restricted. Lockdowns within regions. Border remains tightly closed. That will thus slow the spread of omicron sufficiently, to mean NZ will need to remain as such for all of 2022. That in turn allows the government to continue the smokescreen under which to pass legislation to satisfy its agenda, way out left that is(just kidding.)
I think Omicron will spread like wildfire even in red light. The R value is too high. Unvaccinated people just have fake vaccine passports anyway so the system is stupid. I think a level 3 lock down with testing all workers once a week will be what is required to slow Omicron's spread
The pass system is an absolute farce, completely arbitrary time limit from a random date (when you downloaded the app), no relation to when you were actually jabbed.
Mine expires in June even though I got jabbed in oct/nov. So suddenly I go from a perfectly legal law abiding citizen one day, to not being able to do sfa the next.
And once your inside it doesn't matter if your jabbed or not you still spread covid the same in confined places.
The whole thing is a joke.
Mexico has removed all restrictions, as has Ireland and as mentioned above, UK is getting there. And yet isolated old NZ.......
Cabinet is also considering tweaks to "Omicronise" the traffic light settings. The measures recommended by director general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield include more mask use at all levels, and smaller gathering limits, especially at the red setting. The whole country is likely to be put into the red setting once Omicron spreads in the community, and stay there until case numbers peak and start to drop again. The Government considers regional borders, such as that deployed around Auckland for Delta, will have little effect due to the variant's transmissibility.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-two-more-cases-confirmed…
All very sensible as usual IMO. The international borders are a bit of an unknown, I think they will scrap MIQ once Omicron takes off as what is the point in stopping a few hundred cases a day when you already have tens of thousands.
“One preprint study found that after 30 days the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines no longer had any statistically significant positive effect against Omicron infection, and after 90 days, their effect went negative – i.e. vaccinated people were more susceptible to Omicron infection,” they wrote.
“Confirming this negative efficacy finding, data from Denmark and the Canadian province of Ontario indicate that vaccinated people have higher rates of Omicron infection than unvaccinated people.”
Dr Montagnier and Mr Rubenfeld added that while there was “some early evidence” that boosters may reduce Omicron infections, “the effect appears to wane quickly, and we don’t know if repeated boosters would be an effective response to the surge of Omicron”.
Their comments come after the UK’s head vaccine adviser, Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, who helped develop the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, called for an end to ongoing mass vaccination.
“We know that the two doses of the vaccine offer very limited protection, if any,” Dr Bourla said.
“The three doses with a booster, they offer reasonable protection against hospitalisation and deaths – against deaths, I think, very good, and less protection against infection. Now we are working on a new version of our vaccine, the 1.1, let me put it that way, that will cover Omicron as well. Of course we are waiting to have the final results, [but] the vaccine will be ready in March.”
“Because the protection against the hospitalisations and the severe disease – it is reasonable right now, with the current vaccines as long as you having, let’s say, the third dose.”
He added that it also remains unclear whether a fourth shot will become necessary, with Pfizer set to conduct experiments on the issue.
Higher inflation is making headline.........it should have been a headline early last year as was evident where it was heading but reserve bank to shut up the issue coined 'Transitory Inflation' and with that, they silenced everyone who were concerned and continued with this manipulative trick for more than a year till it became too Big to lie.
This people have done more harm than good for long term economy.
NZ is the only country in the developed world that has lottery system - managed isolation in the world even after two years.
What was suppose to be an emergency measure has become a permanent tool of Jacinda Arden.
Can anyone mention any other country that has been shut to it's citizen, even today after two years.
Instead of trying to boost hospital and infrastructure are going for shutting NZ from rest of the world.
If they know that by end of February most will have booster, what is stopping our mummy PM from bringing certainity.
Learn to live with virus - endemic.
Moteliers and landlord will lose money, whom they are paying much much more than the market price. Buzz in landlord community that by renting to government agencies, easy to get 25% to 40% more rent than from normal average family and they say renting is going up. Just like government agencies used tax payers money to bid in Auction room.
Of course they could'nt boost hospital capacity, that would require planning and implementation. Wasted billions on jacking our house prices up and now inflation in the back end...if just a small % of this went into boosting ICU, paying our Nurses and doctors more so they don't go overseas (as GR said 53 million is nothing to spend on a cycleway not being built...well it would of been a good start).
You just need find Dr Reti on facebook or something, in parliament clearly, cooly exposing the government allocating $ millions, engaging consultants, to scheme up the bureaucratic monolithic structure for the MoH in Wellington. Thus introducing much uncertainty at the coalface, that is the underfunded & insufficiently equipped hospitals and in dire need of such money, all in the midst of a pandemic, and the finesse, a wage freeze on nurses and suchlike. If that does not illustrate a to hell with anything else mindset & agenda I don’t no what would.
Now to go along with services CPI, BLS also calculates that export like import prices took a step backward in December. Maybe that was a global omicron effect, but in these series we find yet again a defined peak clearly set back in October before this latest troublesome variant ever showed up late in November.
It would match instead the front-loading of Christmas shopping; as would a non-pandemic association within FRBNY’s Empire survey, particularly the stout drop for new orders.
So, if the manufacturing part of the economy begins to suffer a bit, too, a slowdown that doesn’t have to be anything huge – not even to the proportions of a 2018 or 2015 – for the whole thing to tilt the wrong way. Again, services this time aren’t there for support should manufacturing begin to wane (if not already). Link
China will use the Tongan volcano disaster as an opportunity to increase their lending to Tonga. And further increase their influence in the region.
https://www.deccanherald.com/international/world-news-politics/china-wi…
The US is advising its citizens not to travel to Australia because of Covid-19.
It has slapped a "Do Not Travel" Level 4 advisory on the country "due to Covid-19-related travel restrictions"
Hey look the world's moved on and can travel freely.
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