Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news Wall Street is rallying today as the bond sell-off hits a pause.
But first, the Omicron wave is biting into American jobs now. Last week should have seen a large seasonal fall in jobless claims but the actual fall was less than expected. It decreased by an actual -83,000 when -139,000 fall in jobless claims was expected. Now just over 2 mln people are on these benefits. Most other news reports will focus on a rise in the seasonally adjusted number, but there isn't in fact any rise, only a lesser than-expected fall. To say jobless claims 'rose' misrepresents what actually happened.
But there was a real fall in existing home sales in December, driven by a record low availability of houses for sale - just 910,000 in the whole country and an unprecedented level. As a consequence, prices rose to a median of US$358,000 (NZ$526,000) a record, and completing ten straight years of year-on-year price increases. But the expectation is growing that sharpish mortgage rate rises will quell some of this. 30% of their home sales are to first home buyers.
Meanwhile, new housing starts rose more than expected to an annualised rate of just over 1.7 mln in December, the highest since March and beating market forecast of 1.65 mln Housing demand remains strong although high prices for building materials, (especially timber) supply constraints and labour shortages persist and are weighing on construction times. But that is not stopping a very high level of building permit applications.
And the closely-watched Philly Fed factory survey covering an important manufacturing heartland, came in very positive, and up in January from December. Cost and price pressure remains very elevated however.
All this data is emphasising the fact that American public policy settings are supporting a very broad-based expansion now, and are very much more professional than compared to the previous Administration. They seem on to it in their first year.
Japan's exports rose to a record high in December, up more than forecast. Import growth remain high but is declining. As a consequence their trade deficit shrank in December. Japan runs a big trade surplus with New Zealand and big trade deficit with Australia.
Taiwan's export orders remained very strong in December, beating estimates and capping an impressive year.
But the cost of shipping all this trade in containers isn't declining, rather staying at very high levels and actually rose again last week. That said, the cost of shipping bulk cargoes continues to slide and is back to year-ago levels - in fact back to 'normal' levels we have seen over the past 35 years.
China's central bank has stepped in to support a slowing economy that has been weighed down by a slump in the property market during a politically important year for leader Xi Jinping. It has trimmed its housing loan prime rates by -5 bps from the one year, and -10 bps from the official five year benchmark rate. (See charts at the bottom of this page.) But this latest timid cut is more about cushioning impacts of the slowdown than turning anything around. Economic sights are being set lower.
Annual inflation in the EU rose to 5.3% in the year to December 2021, bolstered by Germany (+5.7%) and Spain (+6.6%), but restrained by Italy (4.2%) and France (+3.4%).
In Australia, the world’s first ship carrier of liquefied hydrogen has arrived at Victoria’s Port of Hastings to pick up its inaugural cargo and transport it to Japan, marking a major milestone for the emerging industry.
Meanwhile, the Australian jobless rate fell in December to 4.2% from 4.6%, aided by +65,000 more employed, +42,000 of them full time. But they didn't get their expected improvement in their participation rate. (The New Zealand labour market data comes out on February 2, for Q4-2021. As at Q3 we had a 3.2% jobless rate.)
And in what might be seen as an odd outcome, the Melbourne Institute is reporting their survey of consumer inflation expectations fell from +4.8% in December 2021 to +4.4% in January 2022.
In NSW, there were 30,826 new community cases reported yesterday, a small fall, now with 278,324 active locally-acquired cases, and 25 more deaths. There are now 2,781 in hospital there. In Victoria they reported 21,966 more new infections yesterday, a small rise. There are now 239,402 active cases in that state - and there were 15 more deaths. Queensland is reporting 16,812 new cases and 9 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 3,482 yesterday with no more deaths. The ACT has 982 new cases and Tasmania 927 new cases. Overall in Australia, 74,904 new cases were reported.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.84% and unchanged from this time yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today marginally flatter at +79 bps. Their 1-5 curve is softish at +106 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is unchanged at +179 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -1 bp at 1.97%. The China Govt ten year bond is down -2 bps at 2.75%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is up +8 bps at 2.60%.
Wall Street is in to its Thursday session strongly with the S&P500 up 1.3% so far. Overnight most European markets rose about +0.5%, although London fell -0.2%. Yesterday, Tokyo recovered +1.1%, Hong Kong ended up a very strong +3.4% but Shanghai fell -0.1%. The ASX200 was up a minor +0.1% yesterday, but the NZX50 fell hard again, down -0.9%.
The price of gold starts today at US$1841/oz and a mere +US$1 higher.
And oil prices start unchanged at just under US$86.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$88.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today little-changed at 67.9 USc. But against the Australian dollar we are -½c lower at 93.5 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 59.9 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts the today at 72.2 and despite the Aussie move, little-changed since this time yesterday.
The bitcoin price has moved up today, this time by +3.2% to US$43,285. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.3%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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119 Comments
That comment had a place - about 10 years ago. The aim is to get as much work out of energy, as possible. Nothing goes close to fossilised sunlight (old solar energy compacted over aeons at no energy expense to ourselves) in terms of energy in vs energy out. 'Producing' hydrogen from an already-marginal source, doesn't need viability proven; it's a non starter; not enough margin.
Yes, Aus has solar space; the question now is how long does the material supply system hold out? and how much material is left to supply?
Answer those, and hydrogen is dead in the water. There is a growing consensus that it's being hyped by the FF industry, in the way vaping is by the tobacco industry; an entirely predictable self-preservation move.
and plenty of uranium.
"A NEW nuclear reactor at the Shidaowan nuclear power plant in China has been connected to the grid, which China says is the world’s first high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR)."
"High-temperature gas-cooled reactors use graphite as a moderator and helium as a coolant, with uranium fuel in the form of 6 cm-diameter 'pebbles'. Each pebble has an outer layer of graphite and contains some 12,000 four-layer ceramic-coated fuel particles dispersed in a matrix of graphite powder. The fuel has high inherent safety characteristics, and has been shown to remain intact and to continue to contain radioactivity at temperatures up to 1620°C - far higher than the temperatures that would be encountered even in extreme accident situations, according to the China Nuclear Energy Association (CNEA)."
https://www.thechemicalengineer.com/news/demo-nuclear-reactor-connected…
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Demonstration-HTR-PM-connected-…
profile,
Global Temperature in 2021
13 January 2022
James Hansen, Makiko Sato and Reto Ruedy
Global surface temperature in 2021 (Fig. 1) was +1.12°C (~2°F) relative to the 1880-1920 average in the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) analysis.[1],[2],[3] 2021 and 2018 are tied for 6th warmest year in the instrumental record. The eight warmest years in the record occurred in the past eight years. The warming rate over land is about 2.5 times faster than over the ocean (Fig. 2). The irregular El Nino/La Nina cycle dominates interannual temperature variability, which suggests that 2022 will not be much warmer than 2021, but 2023 could set a new record. Moreover, three factors: (1) accelerating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, (2) decreasing aerosols, (3) the solar irradiance cycle will add to an already record-high planetary energy imbalance and drive global temperature beyond the 1.5°C limit – likely during the 2020s. Because of inertia and response lags in the climate and energy systems, the 2°C limit also will likely be exceeded by midcentury, barring intervention to reduce anthropogenic interference with the planet’s energy balance.
I feel sure you will find this of interest. It is backed up by figures from BEST; Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures.
For two years much of our media has been avid in reporting numbers on numbers of covid raging through nations overseas. Remember Fiji, stricken as they were, dominated the daily reporting. Then suddenly NZ had one Delta case, Fiji instantly virtually forgotten on the news, but certainly not cured. The media, in this regard, have thus quite effectively sewed the seeds of fear here in NZ. Some might even claim our government policy, was not misaligned with this? Will there though, continue to be the same eagerness to report similar distressing numbers, if NZ descends into the dire situations witnessed overseas, that have been so keenly reported here?
Here are the official worldwide "cases" and "deaths" figures from Worldometer with a 2 week delay:
01/11 363'397 cases 15/01 5'767 deaths
15/11 518'484 cases 01/12 8'810 deaths
01/12 687'813 cases 15/12 7'566 deaths
15/12 731'157 cases 01/01 4'691 deaths
01/01 1'806'863 cases 15/01 6'396 deaths
15/01 2'931'332 cases 01/02 ??? deaths
What media won't point out is that for each of the 2 week periods above the world populations has increase by about 2'000'000 people! That is new births minus deaths (including Covid deaths which make up a tiny proportion of all deaths)
Small fraction of all deaths but a disturbingly high ratio of deaths for those who catch Covid-19. Well disturbingly high if you are over 70 with minor heart issues with a wife recovering from cancer treatment and a daughter with an auto-immune problem. I am heartened to see the number of cases labelled 'serious' declining in the UK.
End the fear of pandemic....DO NOT THINK....this fear is the ticket to win next election.....will keep it alive.
This fear will distract from other real fundamental issue and the only hope of winning next election.
Anything and everything for power or shall we say Everything is fair in Politics to get power.
As measured, period.
Everyone in the 'OECD' is in the same boat; they were peddled 'economic growth forever', if we all specialised, then specialised further within our specialties. The result is that everyone relies on everyone else knowing everything about the next-to-nothing they are expert in. The number keeping intellectual tabs on everything, approaches zero. And the percentage of knowledge describable as general (or even logical) becomes less and less of the socially-held total.
King-hit specialists with a phase-change, and you notice a lesser capability for original thought. Just goes with the territory.
pdk,
Best Wishes for another interesting year. I have always been drawn to polymaths-if I was a great deal cleverer, that's what I would aspire to be.
Definition of a specialist; someone who knows more and more about less and less until he/she knows everything about nothing. I will however make an exception for my oncologist!
My business comment is the C...d thing has turned business into media blathering would be government beneficeries.
Instead of demanding the government save them from challenges, business would be better to learn how to deal with them.
But sadly, that's the nation we have become.
NSW having 30000 plus cases everyday but still lives goes on. A Friend travelled to UK for a week and returned, his brother too who is in NZ wanted to join him but ......
Everyone is confused why our PM is going for elimination policy at the same saying that it is a matter of time before virus spreads in community. If policy is to delay till most get booster by February than be confident to announce the pathway to open border atleate for residents of the country instead of creating fear and uncertainity on a daily basis.
Shouting Wolf is Coming ...Wolf is Coming and than waiting for it for months doing nothing - no movement to protect while waiting for wolf is more harmful than when it actually happens.
Now the borders are shut for months in anticipation of virus than will be shut again for few months as it will eventually arrive, than will hear of new virus......this cycle will continue for 2022 and maybe 2023 and beyond while rest of world start living normally.
NZ the only country in the world where it's citizen are not allowed to return back unless get luck in lottery - in January so far only 1200 people have been lucky and that too for return in March and April.
Be carefully but..... Happening as no strong opposistion and media, turning democracy to be a farce.
The PM isn’t going for an elimination strategy, she is going for a delay until people have a chance to get boosters and young children have a chance to get vaccinated.
Life is going on for most people overseas except the dead. And I think you’ll find despite little/no government restrictions in Australia people generally self restrict.
Finally, one of the reasons we will need to slow things down a bit is to protect the health system. Unfortunately they national party bled it dry for near on a decade and left us desperately short of capital and labour.
'The PM isn’t going for an elimination strategy, she is going for a delay until people have a chance to get boosters and young children have a chance to get vaccinated'
Sure than as per their own assessment by end of February most will be have their booster.....So ask PM is she opening border from March or even April ( giving marging / grace period of 30 days - knowing their capabilities) and please no more.....
Took my 9 yer old for their first jab on the 17th (first day for 5-11 year olds). Anti vaxers were at the drive through scaring the kids. Some choice words exchanged until the Police stepped in.
Can't book in 2nd jab until March as website recommends 8 week delay between jabs.
How about we give the kids a chance before starting the Omicron face licking party.
J_U,
you say it's just an anecdote and not scientific, but then make the big claim that; "Vaccinating 5-11s is an absolute waste of time and resources."
What scientific evidence do you have for that? You clearly can't see that your statements are not compatible with each other.
Just don't lump em all in together. Many are vacced for flu etc so cannot be labelled as anti-vac.
I am getting more concerned about where this is heading, issues such as the affect on one's immune system if we keep getting boosters are real. And of course there is the female side effect that is also real. So don't take you eyes of the fact this is still an experimental vacc that (last I looked) that only has emergency provisional approval.
An open mind.
And already the main claim that it would stop the spread, and that un-vaxed were putting everyone at risk by allowing it to spread:- has already been proven false. Not to mention the constantly decreasing claims of efficacy. How many more claims will turn out to be false before the fat lady sings?
On the other hand the mortality rate of covid has been way overstated by an order of magnitude, even then the 'covid mortality rate' includes people who died promptly after getting shot, but tested after death were found to have covid, anyone who dies gets tested for covid and if they had covid then they died with covid even if that was not the cause of death.
Until the young children are vaccinated, then it's the next booster, then it's boosting the kids, then it's the next variant and so on. Along with more carrot dangling with phony dates as to when we can see our overseas families again.
I'm all for following the rules, getting fully vaccinated, signing in and so on. But even I'm getting tired of the fear based carrot dangle approach.
And the amount of pro-Goverment comments I've seen respond to this with either "overseas Kiwis don't pay tax, why should they come back?", "if you don't like it go live in X country" or thinking we're all wanting to just go on holiday. Presumably they've never needed to travel further than the nearest Pak n Save.
https://twitter.com/MaryanneDemasi/status/1483608977271566342?s=20
Whats your response to the WHO comment that:
"There are currently no efficacy or safety data for children below the age of 12 years. Until such data are available, individuals below 12 years of age should not be routinely vaccinated"
The Pfizer BioNTech (BNT162b2) COVID-19 vaccine: What you need to know (who.int)
I hope this study wasn't the basis for a nationwide rollout.
"January 6, 2022
N Engl J Med 2022
...A phase 1, dose-finding study and an ongoing phase 2–3 randomized trial are being conducted
...During the phase 1 study, a total of 48 children 5 to 11 years of age received 10 μg, 20 μg, or 30 μg of the BNT162b2 vaccine (16 children at each dose level).
... In the phase 2–3 trial, a total of 2268 children were randomly assigned to receive the BNT162b2 vaccine (1517 children) or placebo (751 children). At data cutoff, the median follow-up was 2.3 months
...Limitations of the study include the lack of longer-term follow-up to assess the duration of immune responses, efficacy, and safety. However, longer-term follow-up from this study, which will continue for 2 years, should provide clarification."
Hardly, If you have an open mind, I recommand you have a look there.
https://www.medsafe.govt.nz/COVID-19/safety-report-39.asp
Those products have been shown to kill.
Quoting out of context.
I don't care to learn the specifics regarding the vaccine advice for children (whether they should or shouldn't) as it isn't a decision I'll ever have to take.
My point is shifting goal posts, that there is always X group who aren't ready for the Government to hide behind.
I am.
If you're now going to imply I just want open borders now that I'm "safe", save your breath.
It'd be like me saying your stance is stopping this little girl from keeping use of her arm -
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/127559941/family-be…
"The PM isn’t going for an elimination strategy, she is going for a delay until people have a chance to get boosters and young children have a chance to get vaccinated."
Funny, our original strategy was to delay so that everyone could get double jabbed. Now we are, but snap.
What's the story next month. Delay so kids can get booster/adults to get fourth shot? then what about the month after, delay again for shots 5...6...7...8...9...10...
Further to that, most of those "dead" overseas (and even here) were on a terminal decline in the next 3-6 months anyway.
Now to your last point.... Labour have been in four years. 2 with a known health crisis. What exactly have they done to increase capacity/capability? Frozen wages, blocked skilled medical staff from coming in, and invested in....housing.
So, um, what exactly is our wider strategy?
The “why do the rules keep changing” crowd keep ignoring the fact that the variants keep changing and you need to changing your position based on the new reality. That is what the PM is doing and some people here seem unable to do.
If we were still dealing with original COVID-19 this would have been done a long time ago.
The PM has clearly signaled that we are going to take this one head on, that we aren’t going for elimination. This is what you clearly want. So why don’t you recognise that, let those of us with kids 5-11 have a month or two to get them vaccinated and ourselves boosted and then let omicron loose?
I have two kids under 11, why do they need to be vaccinated to open up? Unvaccinated children already have less chance of any covid issues than a fully vaccinated Adult.
Our initial two jabs was the delay you seem to want. We gained 6 months, and in that time, we did... [crickets chirp]. What exactly do you think we will do over the next few months?
If we open in four months, the kids will all need boosters. So more waiting, then the adults will need shot 4.....
Rip the plaster off now, we are at maximum adult vaccination, optimum season/climate, and our health care have had 2 whole years to prep. Waiting only reduces the vaccine's efficiency.
Our Health system is a dead duck no matter what. Maybe losing 10k of our unhealthiest now will actually give it the breathing room it needs to improve in future years?
Because there will be a big difference between late March and now.
Most people can’t get their boosters yet and boosters reduce spread and further strengthen the immune response.
5-11s have only just had a chance to get their first one.
The value of the time for those things to take place is significantly greater than a few people being inconvenienced on their travel plans.
Yes, a massive difference... We will be closer to Winter, less vaccinated due to the expected reduction in the uptake of the booster. Oh and the healthcare system will be under more strain as more people have left due to the chronic stress and anxiety, from being overworked and underpaid.
We can then wait for a fourth shot (as current research is showing the booster is only effective for 7-10 weeks) and finally let rip in July at the peak of the flu season.
As an aside; an inconvenience is a delay in your flight or inclement weather for a few days. It is not a multi-year (with no sign of even the remotest strategy/plan to remove it) closure of the border of a nation which has a historically had a very high proportion of multi-national and/or well travelled residents.
We were promised two jabs, then it was 3, now it is kids... The antivaxers will be looking pretty smug as we all line up for booster 4,510 in four years time just to be able to attend the state-sanctioned food rationing raffle.
The antivaxxers are only looking smug because they are free riding on our immunity. If vaccination rates were lower, cases would be higher, and there would be a lot more dead antivaxxers (already are a few). Overseas the fatalities amongst antivaxxers are massive.
As for travel, if started trying to get home at the start of this thing im sure you are home. The people who are stranded are those who (a) only left recently and want back in (b) those who relatively recently decided they needed to get home.
Uptake of the booster is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Low uptake is only a problem if people don’t get it. If people are dumb enough not to get a free safe vaccine that protects them they can suffer the consequences. I’m about protecting people who help themselves.
You keep making out the govt is intentionally changing the rules based on a consistent series of facts and then say well based on that they will keep doing it. That is disingenuous. They are changing the decisions when the facts change - new variants. I really believe this is the end. That the govt are prepared to take this one on full force. If they don’t find me in the comments and tell me I’m wrong but also if I’m right I challenge you to do that as well.
It really staggers me that the "why do the rules keep changing" crowd cannot grasp that an unprecedented pandemic might result in adaptive policy rather than a single plan being decided at the start and followed blindly. It's not as if wars are fought with not adaption of planning, or businesses don't react to changes in the market...
Roy1 loving ya work cobber.
Here in QLD same pop as nz , 20000 cases a day , maybe 5x that.
Hospitals are full but coping , about 10 deaths a day , mostly unvaxed,
old , obese . Life is pretty normal . Going to gym shortly....no mask.
Within 6 months most kiwis will have had Omicron , 2 day cold ,
some wont even know they had it. couple weeks it will be over here.
l wonder how many people in NZ have suffered or Died in the last
2 years + this year from cancelled surgery & treatments let alone
the mental health damage done......
Very poor, unintelligent comparison. Ukraine is not Afghanistan.
The Ukranian government is a democratically elected one which is comparatively stable (albeit with a LOT of external pressures), Afghanistan was a mob of fundamentalist religious nutters who were happy to declare war on anyone who did not believe in their version of Islam. They had to go, but the US did not understand the culture and politics, the people or the country so could not formulate an exit strategy. That problem still exists due to that. But the two countries are not comparable.
I pretty much think that the European approach has sent a message to the US, that other than a supplier of weapons for defence, they do not really see them as a reliable ally going forward. Trump did significant damage.
I would suggest the the US suck it up and fit in with NATO and what it does, and doesn't try to dictate what happens. The Europeans will very clearly not want Putin to start succeeding in his expansionist aspirations as he will be a threat to all of Europe. The US won't want it either as Xi will use it as a distraction, possibly to try for Taiwan, but perhaps elsewhere too. Economically though I don't think China or Russia have the capacity to sustain a war at the moment, but there will be many in the US military Industrial Complex who will be rubbing their hands in anticipation of big profits. If Putin moves and the US keeps it's profile low, it will still profit hugely.
If Putin moves and the US keeps it's profile low, it will still profit hugely.
Why would Putin move?
EU depends on Russia in oil and gas sphere — Macron
But China will readily scoop it up when Siberia 2 gas pipeline is agreed early February.
Yes, I read yesterday (Can't remember where) one of the possible EU sanctions was to halt construction of a Russian Gas pipeline through Germany.
Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. Chronic fuel shortages have already hit much of the EU this year. What do they think will happen when Russia turn off the Gas flow and re-direct it to China (Which they will, the second any sanctions are implemented)
Russia have the EU over a Barrel. It's just that the EU haven't quite cottoned on yet.
The Ukranian government is a democratically elected one which is comparatively stable (albeit with a LOT of external pressures)...
Yeah right !!! - Ukraine crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt call
Russia has what it wanted out of Ukraine, geographically. All it wants now, is not to have missiles within 6 minutes of Moscow (et al). Same argument the USA had with Cuban missiles.
The so-called democracy is just like so many; corruptible and corrupted. Seen through neutral eyes, they're probably a negative. Seen through limits-to-growth eyes, Putin is probably a better influence. So often folk forget that 'communism' (which is not what Russia or China are) has been denigrated by a compliant media, on behalf of the elite (winners in our system) for a century. Strip away the propaganda, and there are just different ways for psychopaths to rise to the top. Then it depends on the psychopath; Putin is much less likely to stuff humanity than Trump, slightly less likely than Biden, Xi is an expedient oxymoron.
Disagree. Russia wants a secure land access to Crimea. Before Russia itself moved to destabilise Ukraine, there were no moves to put missiles capable of hitting Moscow there. Russia is doing the aggression itself. Putin is working on projecting the 'strongman' persona that the Russian people love so much, but sooner or later, you've got to put your money where your mouth is. I suspect he's backing himself into a corner (if he's working alone). I suggest Putin is more likely to go nuclear than Biden or the others, especially if he moves and the EU with the US push him back further behind current borders. If they stop at the borders disaster may be averted - until the next crisis. Putin on the other hand is nurturing puppets
If he's working with Xi all bets are off.
Russia has built a 12 mile bridge to link the Crimean peninsular. It is not enough, it would go in the push of a button, but it does in the meantime facilitate the strengthening & fortification of that peninsular. Russia needs a warm water port it always has. Crimea has been vital. Hence the 19th century Crimean war and the brutal campaign by FM Manstein to capture it WW2 & reciprocated by the Russians to get it back. My guess agrees, Putin is trying to manoeuvre acquiring a zone by which land forces can securely be transported to & from Crimea.
"All this data is emphasising the fact that American public policy settings are supporting a very broad-based expansion now, and are very much more professional than compared to the previous Administration. They seem on to it in their first year."
Oh spare me. They have blown trillions for mediocre growth. They are professional currency confidence destroyers up there with the best. Nearly 600,000 Americans unhoused:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMjTKbUTaMs
This administration is not the New Hope we have been looking for.
Reads “American public policy settings are supporting a very broad-based expansion now, and are very much more professional…”.
Then watched a senile ‘President’ on CNN who is unaware of where he is or what’s going on. While a journalist diplomatically asks him about his cognitive abilities. Then President pleads for ‘easy questions” then wife rescues him & he shuffles off. What a tragedy.
And yet, they are far more professional than the previous administration. My cat would be able to organise a more professional administration than the last Presidency.
Biden may look bad until you remember what he replaced - at least his incoherence is not dangerous and pointed at destroying democracy.
Read your history.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/joe-biden-could-end-up-being-a-w…
Democrats have the track record.
So speculation and assuming Biden will follow the path of other Democratic Presidents?
Meanwhile the recent history of Republican administrators is essentially pacifist - excluding a couple of invasions of Iraq and the Afghanistan invasion and the entire foundation of the 'War on Terror'.
So Iran, China and Russia aren't getting the soft touch anymore. Would you rather the US just roll over and let these foreign dictatorships threaten the West with impunity? Trumps diplomacy was at the level of a 3rd rate New York gangster. Whilst Biden is but a shadow of his former self at least he's getting out of the way and letting the adults do the bidding.
The 'west' has had access to the planet's resources, for 200 years. We are about half-way through those, but exponential growth means the last half goes rapidly; 20-30 years tops. There were 1 billion, mostly peasant/agrarian, 200 years ago. There are 8 billion, mostly city-domiciled, mostly without existential skills, now. Nothing surer than that we will fight over 'what's left', and that the fight has to be less than 10 years away. They all know it, and if our media dared allow itself to think (and that avoidance may be fear-underwritten, but it's certainly 'chosen avoidance') we would all know it too. As with the 1930s, a growing cohort are getting there anyway. This time it won't be learning to fly in the weekends or sponsoring Spitfires, though; this time it might just be cyber. You could take out 'the west' that way in 24 hours, without losing a soldier.
Yeah...incredible, eh. I've no personal stake in Biden - obviously - but the amount of weird loyalty to Trump and antipathy to Biden in this thread just looks like social media content aimed at Americans has been quite successful in New Zealand too. Like how we've seen folk at anti-vax marches carrying Trump 2024 flags.
Tragic and surreal.
Interesting how our Omicron plan is only to move everyone to red light. I would have though advising the unvaccinated & retirees (over 65's) to minimise contact with others would have been prudent while the virus works its way though the younger/healthy populations. This would maximise our chance of getting though the Omicron outbreak without an overwealmed healthcare system. But who am I to question the wisdom of our leaders.
Soooo in a broad sense, what you are saying is Take Some Personal Responsibility!
Stop babying us, let people have an honest, unbiased look at all the data and make up their own mind about their own personal situation and risk profile.
Its a pandemic of the old and people with comorbidities.
"Its a pandemic of the old and people with comorbidities."
No it's not. This is misinformation BS.
There are young, ostensibly healthy people dying of COVID, even Omicron. Yes the numbers are low, but a flu or cold does not do that. And there are more than a few people across the world who had your view, went out and caught it and died! Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is?
You are suggesting influenza doesn't kill young, healthy people? These two New Zealand news stories from 2019 might interest you, as might an analysis of Covid vs influenza death rate by age.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/rising-star-talented-rugby-league-play…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/113076663/influenza-kills-two-p…
https://freopp.org/comparing-the-risk-of-death-from-covid-19-vs-influen…
Does anybody know if the CCFA changes are having an impact on finance/lending outside of house purchase?
For example, car purchasing.
It seems that most cars (outside of cheap private sale ones) are bought on finance, and the availability of credit must presumably be part of what is driving up car prices ... how many people could afford to cash buy a car for the average purchase price, if they couldn't use finance?
Or is it just property that the CCFA concerns itself with?
Lobbyist work like people who are brain washed and are allowed to think and promote what they are paid to do - irrespective of data / logic / information / fundamental.
More he situation, which is not in favour of lobbyist, more irrational and desperate they get with manipulation to convince some innocent, who they are able to fool. Sad but true.
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