Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news through all the economics, large demographic shifts continue which will have long-term global effects.
But first, US December data confirmed personal consumption expenditure rose +5.8% and a 40 year high and core PCE was up +4.9%. Those inflation measures will weigh on the Fed. But for the month of December, disposable personal income increased almost +US$40 bln while personal consumption expenditures fell -$95 bln. Consumers are changing their spending habits to prepare for inflation. For the year, personal disposable incomes rose +7.3% but over that same year personal consumption expenditures rose more than +12%. The need to tame inflation is now urgent but that weaker December consumer spending does add a dilemma for the Fed.
So it is no surprise that consumer sentiment is retreating.
And this is despite American employers paying much more to employ their workforces, up their most in 20 years.
From all these inflation pressures economists at Bank of America have shifted to a decidedly hawkish expectation, saying seven rate rises from the central bank are likely in 2022. Seven! That would take their 0.25% policy rate to 2.00% by the end of 2022, a very fast change.
In China, the cleanup of the Evergrande mess has taken a somewhat surprising turn. The defacto Beijing liquidators have turned over control of a sprawling building project near Shanghai to an American distressed debt manager, Oaktree. It was one of Evergrande's most prized assets.
Meanwhile, a growing number of Chinese construction and decoration companies are writing off assets or issuing profit warnings as debt woes at Evergrande and other property developers debilitate their suppliers. Caterpillar have downgraded their China prospects even as they reported stronger global prospects.
Singapore's producer price index came in at +22% higher in December that the same month a year ago, but as high as that may seem, it is less than their September level of +26%. Take out oil, and their PPI was still up +13%.
Hong Kong reported its advance Q4 GDP result which was up +4.8% for the year which is less than the Q3 result. Most of that was from earlier in the year, helped by a weak base, and the final quarter ended on a weakish note.
Germany also reported its Q4 GDP result and it wasn't flash. Their economy retreated in the quarter, but although a retreat was expected the actual result was worse. For the full year, it was only up a tepid +1.4%.
So it won't be a surprise to learn that the EU confidence measures are sinking in January for both industry and consumers.
We have noted China's demographic time-bomb with a collapsing birthrate there, a trend that will hurt it all century. But there is another global-scale demographic shockwave underway in a neighbour. Russia reported almost 44,390 pandemic deaths in December taking their annual total to 680,000. 20% of all Russian deaths are from Covid. Clearly their Sputnik vaccine isn't helping much. That makes 2021 their deadliest year since World War II, and exceeds their chronic alcohol death disasters. Like China, they are in a downward demographic spiral.
Last week, container shipping costs dipped, ending a string of six consecutive weekly recent rises. But to be fair, the slip is minor. Bulk cargo rates slipped again too.
Prices for the icon commodities of the day, tin, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, all marked time last week, but all remained near or at record highs.
In Australia, inflation's march is stronger in their business sector. They posted a December producer price rise of +3.7%, up considerably from the September +2.9% and a 13 year high.
And there is something of a rush in Australia for home owners to fix their mortgages. This has long been a market where the traditional variable mortgage ruled. But with rate hikes on the horizon, homeowners are getting more 'kiwi' with their loans and are going with fixed rate contracts. The shift is large enough for some analysts to suggest the RBA might be worried that their rate-hike firepower will be undermined by the shift, taking much of the impact out of the market.
And we should note that higher interest rates will come as taxpayer support is being withdrawn, creating a double-effect. That is something on display in New Zealand as well.
In NSW, there were 13,333 new community cases reported yesterday, a decrease from the prior day, now with 166,898 active locally-acquired cases, and 35 daily deaths again. There are now 2,722 in hospital there off their high. In Victoria they reported 12,777 more new infections yesterday. There are now 101,605 active cases in that state - and there were 39 more deaths there. Queensland is reporting 9,974 new cases and 18 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 1953 yesterday with 15 more deaths. The ACT has 734 new cases and one death, and Tasmania 584 new cases. Overall in Australia, 40,175 new cases were reported yesterday.
The UST 10yr yield opened today up +1 bp at 1.79% but in between it was up as high as 1.85%. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today unchanged at +62 bps. Their 1-5 curve is marginally flatter at +88 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is marginally flatter at +174 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -5 bps at 1.91%. The China Govt ten year bond is -2 bps lower at 2.73%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is down -6 bps at 2.61%.
On Wall Street, the S&P500 is up% in early afternoon trade and that will be enough for it to finish the week ahead, up +0.3%. The NASDAQ is recovering sharply too, up 1.7% today so far and led by Apple. Overnight most European markets fell about -1.2%. Yesterday, Tokyo rose +2.1% but finished its week down -2.0%. Hong Kong fell another -1.1% and finished its week down -4.6%. Shanghai fell another -1.0% yesterday to finish down -4.2% for the week. Beijing is mobilising its propaganda efforts imploring investors "not to be shortsighted". The ASX closed yesterday up +2.2% to stem its weekly dumping to -4.8%. The NZX50 was down -1.6% yesterday and -4.0% for the week.
The price of gold starts today at US$1785/oz and another -US$10 lower than this time yesterday. A week ago it was US$1841/oz.
And oil prices start today -50 USc softer than yesterday's recent high at just under US$86.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$88.50/bbl. The number of US oil rigs in production is going up quicker now.
The Kiwi dollar will open today another ½c lower at 65.5 USc as the greenback continues its surge. Against the Australian dollar we are firmer at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we are lower at 58.7 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today down at 70.6 and a new 14 month low.
The bitcoin price is relatively little-changed today, now at US$36,957 and up +1.2% after yesterday's sharp fall. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.7%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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87 Comments
This government tender released today looks to me like it might have come from Xi Pings cookbook on how to manage the takeover of Taiwan.
The government has mandated it will happen, then the government appoints advisors to advise you on how you should best manage being taken over.
Luckily, given the current governments ineptitude at actually implementing anything it will all take just long enough to get off the ground that a new government can step in and squash it before any real harm is done.
Overview
The Government has established a National Transition Unit (NTU), for executing the Government’s decisions on Three Waters reform through a consistent and coordinated nationwide approach to transition. From 1 July 2024, four new water services entities will deliver drinking water, wastewater and stormwater services to people across New Zealand.
From November 2021 to 1 July 2024, the transition from the current system to the new one will take place. The NTU will ensure the transition is efficient, effective and minimises disruption to communities and consumers.
The NTU will deliver a consistent and coordinated nationwide approach to the transition from the 67 councils who are currently responsible for water services to the new system. The NTU will work alongside councils, iwi/Māori, industry and the wider water sector to make the transition successful.
In 2022, the NTU will set up four local establishment entities, which will support the local transition in their area. On 1 July 2024, these four entities will become the four water services entities.
For more information visit https://www.dia.govt.nz/national-transition-unit-three-waters-reform-programme.
In early 2021, the Three Waters National Transition Unit will undertake a procurement process for external advisors. These advisors will support local authorities and the National Transition Unit until 1 July 2024 to undertake the transition to four new water services entities.
Councils have been advised not to procure external advice themselves, as this will not be funded through the transition budget.
We are currently working through the details of the external advice which will be available for councils. This is expected to include access to panels of specialists as well as funding for local expertise where appropriate.
We will undertake a market sounding to transparently document the procurement opportunities prior to any market process to support business decisions.
Further updates will be provided via GETS when more information is available. Please do not contact the NTU ahead of these updates.
This is all part of this governments strategy in “taking over” local assets and incorporating assets into one central entity nationally so that it can be controlled from head office. E.g. the asset take of 2 billion $$ from the 16 Polytechnics, creating one entity, and reducing local industry input by replacing with very high level “Devt Councils”.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Te_Pūkenga_–_New_Zealand_Institute_of_Skills_and_Technology
Would the universities tolerate such a national takeover/merger and allow the govt to setup head office in Hamilton?
But for the month of December, disposable personal income increased almost +US$40 bln while personal consumption expenditures fell -$95 bln
Hmmmm..- Heightened Conflict Of Interest (rates): When GDP’s Almost All Inventory
According to these updated estimates, the change in private inventories went from falling by $60.2 billion in Q3 to adding an enormous $224.7 billion in Q4. By the standard accounting, the change from shrinking during Q3 to record addition in Q4 contributed nearly five full points to the fourth quarter’s 6.7% overall growth rate.
Without all those goods – belying the mainstream interpretation of empty shelves – GDP expansion would’ve been less than 2% for the second quarter in a row. This is the persistent theme throughout the data. In fact, Real Final Sales of Domestic Product (above) records just how weakened the last half of last year had really been.
So, while consumer spending has been unusually high on goods, it hasn’t accelerated at all since around June or July (recurring global theme). If anything, the rate of goods spending has outright declined even if from a historic high – just as all those goods ordered when supply and shipping issues had been at the worst finally begin to come tumbling out of the logistical mess.
It can’t be delta or any variant of corona since the lack of spending, despite all that government cash previously, continued all the way across Q4, too.
Russia reported almost 44,390 pandemic deaths in December taking their annual total to 680,000. 20% of all Russian deaths are from Covid. Clearly their Sputnik vaccine isn't helping much.
Russia's COVID-19 vaccination rate was above 104.5 administered doses per 100 population as of January 25. 2022. The rate of fully vaccinated residents was around 47.6 per 100 people. Russia’s COVID-19 vaccination rate was among the lowest in Europe.
Moreover there are no QR code policies in operation.- hence no distinction between vaxxed and unvaxxed.
MOSCOW, January 28. /TASS/. Mortality in Russia has decreased by 23.7% in the first 27 days of the current year compared with the same period in 2021 and by 17.3% compared with statistics for 27 days in December 2021, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova said on Friday.
"According to the latest statistics, mortality in 27 days of January 2022 decreased by 23.7% compared with the same period last year and by 17.3% compared with 27 days of December 2021," she said.
According to the latest statistics, around 366.6 million people have been infected worldwide and more than 5.6 million deaths have been reported.
To date, 11,502,657 coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Russia. Russia’s latest data indicates 329,443 fatalities nationwide. The Russian government set up an Internet hotline to keep the public updated on the coronavirus situation. Link
I am hearing some anecdotes of some small to mid size developers in Auckland on the verge of collapse. Another anecdote is developers are starting to do all sorts of things to keep afloat, we have all heard about the sunset clause debacles, some of them are also trying to cut all sorts of other corners. Apparently everyone is doing a lot of 'value engineering' right now.
I have heard some bad stories about some Chinese builders and developers based in Auckland too, I don't know if they are facing a double whammy with the problems in China.
The residential construction sector is gonna get ugly.
I’d like to know where these Chinese developers are raising their loans, Chinese banks or local banks?
The Chinese banks may have an advantage in that they can place mortgages over assets in China as security for their loans here.
Irrespective of which banks are lending I’m surprised they are allowing the borrowers to cancel these S&P agmts - these are pre-conditions of obtaining loans after all. Plus banks are getting very risk adverse, less money going around for new buyers to replace those that were shafted.
Here's my Omicron forecast for you kiwi's , having gone threw QLDs , same pop as nz , we peaked last week . First case's about 10th dec 21 , QLD Health forecast 5000 in hospital , didnt happen .......QLD peaked at 900 in hospital....picking earlie March for you kiwi's.....and 50-60 in ICU at peak .....avg 12 deaths a day.....mostly residents of care homes....Jacinda you reading this.....and a few unvaxxed deaths , not to late guys , just do it.
We all so peaked at 25k reported cases a day......maybe 75k not reported......Question for you guys , will you get tested if you have to isolate for 24 days....maybe not , l wouldnt .
All over in April , ENDEMIC...unless Jacinda and MOH are going to make it harder than it needs to be.....Biggest problem will be staff shortages.....Nurses (Heroes) will end up being asked if you dont feel to bad ..just keep working....so not to bad in the end .....Happy weekend kiwi's
I hear you. Count me amongst those who won't be getting tested. Yep, I know that's not right but then neither is potentially facing 24 days in home detention. In my case I work from home and if (when?) I do contract Omicron, I will stay at home and will only go out when I feel better and am sure I am over it. Staying at home for a week because I am not well or potentially infectious, fine, I get that. Staying at home for 24 days due to government guidelines? No, thanks, I'll give that a pass.
Your reasoning is not unique. A very large percentage of New Zealanders have had more than enough, and are in no mind to have a lockdown when, according to the government there isn’t going to be a lockdown. Many people we know are echoing precisely your plans. On top of that who is going to volunteer the loss of their freedom and income willingly. Those that do come forward will undoubtedly be those that are pretty crook. Besides, like you we do not go out to work. At this point we have no idea how we should get a RAT test in need. I thought Mr Gayford was spot on in his assertion that pharmacies should be attending. But not so. Why not so?
This 24 days thing is a worst case scenario/temporary state. That will be abandoned very shortly.
Hardly - I hope so... More and more countries are shortening their isolation periods, not lengthening them. The 24 days was a surprise, well shock actually, for me. Hospitalisations and deaths from Omicron are very low (nobody seems to mention that, only the number of cases), and recovery periods are short, 2-3 days in most cases.
EU health agency and WHO don't recommend shots for kids, and boosters still only offer short term efficacy. Omicron vaccine by march? Omicron will have peaked and gone away by then (unless prolonged by unnecessary restrictions).
Vaccinate, by all means; that makes sense for reducing the more harmful effects of Covid, mainly for the vulnerable, i.e. elderly, immuno-compromised and those with chronic illnesses, but boost and mandate and restrict? No evidence they work, especially for highly vaccinated populace and healthy persons, so why have them? And so, no thanks.
Whoever the "experts" are advising the government, they must be just harking on about the worst case scenarios - but never presenting the best, and likely scenarios.
Tig . Well said . Here in Qld when they realized there wouldnt be enuff nurses-truck drivers etc they went from 14 days at home to 10 then 7 then 5 , then people just kept on working with it....
Here's my opinion.....dont vax small kids , lets give it some time . Give up track & trace/signing in etc , waste of time , save a lot of $$$ to......most deaths will be Residents in care homes......let Jacindas experts who get a lot of things wrong , work on that one...save GrandMa...lets do this..
It's funny how time and time again when pressure comes on an issue (eg. CCCFA, Petrol prices, Supermarket prices etc), the Government calls for an urgent review, and it silences the public thinking the Government will do something about it...yet they won't. Genius really. Kiwis are a trusting bunch.
I saw it work once, with broadband but that was because the government had made a major error selling infrastructure with the service provider. I was hoping that would also be the outcome for the supermarket review, to cleave warehousing/distribution from retail stores. Unfortunately the supermarkets seemed better prepared to hold onto their oligopoly.
I love the CCCFA. I hope this review goes as slowly as possible. So many people on her complain about dangerous levels of debt. Govt does something that actually addresses the problem and people start crying about it. I’ve seen a lot of news stories about CCCFA, in none of them is the subject of the story transparent about their finances - what is their income, what are their expenses, and what are they trying to borrow.
The RBNZ should be worried about the dangerous levels of mortgage debt in terms of house prices falling and negative equity. But in terms of people not being able to afford repayments, I am not sure we actually have a problem, at a guess I would say almost all defaults are people with change of circumstances (sickness, loss of job, etc). Yes higher interest rates will change things, but only for the people already in debt, not for new applications which would already be assessed against the higher rates. The banks were already quite anal about ensuring people could make repayments, the CCCFA just makes it ridiculous (and too much focus on expenses rather than risk of job loss etc)
You’re just one of these unprincipled people who like the legislation not because it’s good law but because you dislike the current state of the housing market. CCCFA is bad law, creating real and negative unintended consequences for otherwise financially prudent people, and it won’t reduce debt levels or resolve pricing issues in the housing market.
I don’t think there is enough evidence to say it’s a bad law. The only group complaining are mortgage brokers whose lives have been made more difficult.
Maybe if the media provided more information about these situations we’d have an idea but everything so far has been selective presentation to pull at the heart strings.
It’s bad law because it doesn’t achieve its aim of protecting vulnerable people. In fact, it’s arguably creating more vulnerable people by forcing people to use second-tier lenders. Anecdotal evidence is there and brokers are a reliable source of what’s happening at the coal face. No one takes brokers seriously though because they had self-interest in the status quo and everyone’s writing off their concerns assuming that brokers want the housing party to continue unabated. Part of that is true, but that doesn’t mean the law isn’t having bad consequences either. Given the legislation has only come in last month, I expect other groups to come forward in due course. FHBs are not the only group affected, another is the self-employed or those who operate as contractors some of whom who ordinarily have very high incomes and income security.
Russias population and birth rate, in fact the population of many former Eastern Bloc countries, peaked about the same time the Soviet Union collapsed. However the nations worst impacted where those that joined the EU, the young and educated went West for employment. Consequently the Dalmation Coast has some spectacular deals for kiwis who can work from home full time and want somewhere warm, pleasant and cheap yo overwinter.
Good to see Australia talking about removing all border restrictions before Easter. That's how we progress, one foot in front of the other and repeat.
Perhaps before. Rather paradoxical. We are in somewhat The Age of Electronic Technology meaning tempo and communications have sped up and robotics etc reduced manual labour, but there is a looming shortage of workers globally, or is there, if the globe itself is considered to be over populated apropos resources.
The competition nis always on the high-end like medical doctors, STEM etc.
If you're just looking for some super low wage labour to staff a pharamacy or build a house I dont you'll have any issues recruiting. That's why it works better to suppress wages than deliver high-end skills.
At a certain point countries will just need people to breed.
Canada is ahead of the curve with an aggressive population strategy.
Im not saying NZ should embrace this strategy, we don’t have the infrastructure and we are terrible at building more. But there may come a time when the countries that want immigrants can’t get them because there aren’t enough to go around.
China will be an interesting case. Will they embrace immigration and cultural diversity?
I think New Zealand voters learned their lessons on infrastructure, it's easier to promise 100,000 new houses or a light rail network than it is to actually build. As such promises should be treated as aspirational in nature.
China sees immigration as a risk to the primacy of the CCP.
Interesting to look at historic building consent issuance.
As you can see in the graph at the link below, BC's started dropping away in 2005 / 2006 as interest rates spiked higher, then the credit crunch hit in 06/07/08 (pre GFC) as mezzanine finance in NZ collapsed - CCCFA taking it's place in 2022?
It will be worse this time, as we have the massive hikes in construction costs to contend with. Also because debt is much higher, it's more sensitive to increases in interest rates.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/topics/building
Correct, all about cycles.
Which is why I find it bizarre that no one is talking about the looming construction slump and what it will mean.
I think it might be because everyone has convinced themselves that we have a significant and permanent supply deficit, so how on earth *could* residential construction slump???
Also I guess we've had a sustained period of construction lifting and lifting, people get trapped by recency bias.
UK max hosp admission rate for last 2.5 months was 2400 a day.
V concentrated pop so more transmission.
Divide 2400 by 13 for NZ pop relative size gives you 184 admissions a day.
But pop in NZ is hugely skewed positionally, so most will be in Auckland.
Deaths in UK peaked at about 220 per day on death certificate as Cv19 cause.
Which would mean 17 a day here. I expect about 10-12 a day for a few weeks.
This is last serious wave of Cv19 and numbers (inaccurate as they are since half of people are non-symptomatic and will not get tested) will peak about 7-9000 a day (UK was 224,000)
Six weeks to peak which I expect about March 15th, followed by steep decline
Speaking to a friend, whose son is looking to come back home since October from Australia but unable due to MANAGED ISOLATION.
Is the PM waiting for revolt. It has been nearly one month and have released just about 1200 rooms.
Jacinda Arden by being silent on border opening is checking the patience of many.
Hopefully announce next week and give clarity to many Kiwi. As per them by February end many will have their booster so Why ?
World is moving forward but .......
Pure politics extends the farce
as soon as this is over Jacinda will no longer be in the limelight every day and since there are basically zero other positive achievements by Labour, Jacinda will fade into the background.
The three major planks that will allow National to leap forward
# race based healthcare
# race based 3 waters management (and the mandated grab of assets)
# $14Billion hole in the ground (more like $24B by the time its finished)
If only someone had the Cajones to stand up and say it
Politics of fear. Not that virus is not serious but is being exploited for political gain.
Matter of time before someone approaches Judicary, as which country in the world have put restriction for their citizen to return to their home country and here we are talking about two years into pandemic.
Whenever they open border, wether now or after six months, bound to have rise in number of cases unless they decide to keep the border close for years.
Omicron BA2 is already out in society and knows no bounds, keeping the border closed will make little difference in the end but may slow the ramp up slightly, maybe for about 2 weeks from this point before the exponential rising numbers head to a peak. At that point the border closure makes no difference whatsoever and that apparatus should be dissolved.
Just one of the many stories and too feel time for change. Learn to live with virus and treat as endemic.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/01/pregnant-kiwi-report…
Hopefully better sense prevails and government gives certaninity and clarity.
tkk. two things. the government has been Able to delay the high court hearing challenging the validity of MIQ etc by three weeks. the government said it needed more time to prepare. no surprises there then. as well, using its majority the government is seeking re-legislate MIQ, border closure so as to remove from any judicial authority. trying to find link for you on that.
It was on a linked in page, that doesn’t seem to be there now. As a matter of interest it also described that solicitors had taken cases to court “pro bono” for clients but before any actual hearing could get underway, MIQ spots were made available. There are some highly questionable tactics being employed by the government and agencies in this area, I would suggest.
I think the 14 billlon “hole in the ground” will be more popular than you think. after 60 odd years of thinking more roads will fix the congestion problem and it being proved wrong, coupled with more people seeing that the public transport cities in Europe and Asia are great while Aucklands big sister Los Angeles is a shit hole, and the whole global warming planet destruction problem, people actually want better public transport in Auckland. A proper underground rail line sounds great to me, sure they don’t come cheap, but neither do endless more roads.
Growing disapproval of Biden over his handling of the economy.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/04/biden-disapproval-rating-high-voters-bl…
He did manage a somewhat coherent stand up media event recently. However, he does not have the mental acuity to maintain the role of President - but most media are protecting him.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-defensive-regrets-first-y…
Interesting that Trump was called "un-Presidential" for calling reporters fake news (a professional insult), but Biden calls a reporter "stupid son of a b*tch" (a personal insult/attack) and practically leaks on air how far Putin can go and the US will take no action, it's crickets...
Don't like Trump? I get it, but the same standard should apply to Biden too.
It’s interesting how things look obvious in hindsight. Not so long ago economists all around the world were predicting high unemployment rates as technology and machine learning took everyone’s job. In reality what has happened is the boomers are leaving the workforce in big numbers and hence unemployment rates are very low. What will happen when they sell their houses in big numbers and head to the old peoples homes?
I see Ardern has to isolate for 10 days as she was on a flight with a Covid passenger. If we all have to isolate for 10 days every time we go near someone with Omicron we will soon all be isolating permanently. One of the commentators here was calling it a lockdown, I’m starting to think they may be right. Seems to be a big incentive not to scan in anywhere, esp if you have the booster.
interesting article here: www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/01/24/do-the-omicron-numbers-mean-what-…
”by some estimates, the chance that an older, vaccinated person will die of covid is now lower than the risk posed by the seasonal flu.”
You have nicely summed up the reality. And that reality is what has evolved and is being accepted by just about all governments & their people globally. The government here though is desperately concerned about its vulnerability, politically speaking. Whether intentional or not large numbers of New Zealanders have, over the last two years, come to fear covid greatly. If covid does now flare up considerably, then so too will that embedded fear rear up, especially should mortalities compound. The government will wear that as a consequence undoubtedly and in part, they would be the architect of that themselves. They know that. They are thus doing all they can get away with to delay the day of reckoning.
While I think the government genuinely believes what they are doing is the *right* thing to do, and they are doing it for that reason, I'm also pretty confident that, whether consciously or unconsciously (probably the latter), they know overall that keeping on doing what they are doing is good for them politically.
I think they know our health system can barely cope with the flu let alone half the country getting omicron at once. There is no other reason to worry about it otherwise with our levels of vaccination
they are pretending to be saving us when in fact they are saving the underfunded health system.
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