Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news that of the world's most significant economic blocks, only the US is still expanding strongly. Japan, China and the EU all seem to be falling away now.
Firstly in the US, the Chicago PMI, a widely-watched factory index in the US manufacturing heartland, surprised with a strong rise of an already strongly expanding result. A small fall was expected.
However the Dallas Fed factory survey did slip as expected. But new order levels held steady at a fast pace, and costs are still rising quickly.
Canadian producer prices were still rising at a very fast clip in December (+16% year-on-year) even if this is marginally lower than for November.
Both Japanese retail sales and Japanese industrial production data for December disappointed. Retail sales rose - just - from December but industrial production fell on that basis. Perhaps the recent 'green shoots' were premature.
In China, their private sector factory PMI contracted in January, a reading that was worse than the official factory PMI. Beijing might be focused on their Winter Olympic celebrations, and most people are on their Spring Festival break. But policy makers must be concerned about the very lackluster economic performance that is dragging on. It won't be a good look for the 2022 anointing of Xi Jinping's lifetime position as leader later in the year.
Hong Kong retail sales rose +3.4% on a volume basis year-on-year in December but off quite a low base. They will be pleased they are getting some expansion now, but it is still -11% lower than pre-pandemic and -30% lower than before the democracy protests started.
In Germany, their inflation rate fell for the first time in seven months to 4.9% in January from a 1992-high of 5.3% in December.
And the steam is going out of the EU economy. Q4 results posted the slowest expansion since Q1 as Omicron took a rising toll. The German economy shrank (as we have reported earlier) offsetting expansions in France, Italy and Spain. For the full year, the EU GDP rise +5.2%, but only +0.3% in Q4 (or an annualised rate of about +1.2% in that final period).
All eyes are now on the Reserve Bank of Australia and its policy review which comes out at 4:30 pm (NZT) today. It has spent north of AU$300 bln on its money printing stimulus so far, and that program is expected to end today. In addition, there are also lots of other Australian economic data due today.
But we should highlight the NSW Government saying that their economy is expected to shrink -4% from the citizen's lockdown they have imposed on themselves. Politicians urged a free opening up to give the State a boost, but people recognised this as dangerous - and it is having a big economic impact.
Aussie politicians seem to be paying a harsh price for their let-it-rip pandemic approach. Even the Murdoch news polling shows a widening disapproval of the Federal Government. 2022 is an election year in Australia.
Private sector debt in Australia rose by +0.8% month-over-month in December 2021, after an upwardly revised +1.0% increase in November. The growth of business debt growth slowed and housing debt growth was unchanged. Meanwhile, personal debt fell -0.8% on that same month-on-month basis. Over all of 2021, private debt rose +7.2%. With consumer inflation running +3.5% and PPI up +3.7%, their 'real' debt growth is a bit over +3% pa.
In NSW, there were 13,026 new community cases reported yesterday, similar the prior day, now with 143,219 active locally-acquired cases, and 27 daily deaths. There are now 2,779 in hospital there, off their high. In Victoria they reported 10,053 more new infections yesterday. There are now 76,335 active cases in that state - and there were 8 more deaths there. Queensland is reporting 7,462 new cases and 3 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 1505 yesterday with 2 more deaths. The ACT has 537 new cases, and Tasmania 504 new cases. Overall in Australia, about 33,500 new cases have been reported making the total number still active at 317,300.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.79% and up +1 bps. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today unchanged at +61 bps. Their 1-5 curve is noticeably flatter at +84 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is marginally steeper at +175 bps. Some analysts think the US yield curves will invert by the end of 2022. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -2 bps at 1.90%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.72%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is down -2 bps at 2.59%.
On Wall Street, the S&P500 is up 1.1% to start their week. Overnight, European markets were up more than +0.5%, except London which fell -0.1%. Yesterday, Tokyo rose +1.1%. Hong Kong did too, but in truncated trading and is closed for Spring Festival/Chinese New Year. Shanghai is closed already for the week-long holiday. Yesterday the ASX200 slipped -0.2% while the NZX50 rose +0.3% in very light trading.
The price of gold starts today at US$1796/oz and up +US$7 from this time yesterday.
And oil prices start today little-changed from yesterday at just over US$86.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$88.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at little firmer at 65.7 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are more than -½c lower at 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 58.6 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today down at 70.6, unchanged but still a 14 month low.
The bitcoin price is up just +0.6% since this time yesterday and now at US$38,080. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.1%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
65 Comments
“President Biden is contending with an uncomfortable disconnect: The economy grew at the fastest pace last year, but voters are downright pessimistic about economic conditions and their own financial prospects”
But inflation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/27/business/economy/biden-economy-polit…
Biden's "Policies" rely on printing money, debt expansion and a near zero interest rates.
Can anyone actually name one policy that has been released from the Biden administration that has clearly made a difference to help businesses grow?
Surely there is an opportunity for the US Debt Clock website to make a little advertising revenue - "See a 3 at the start of US National Debt soon!"
US expansion stays on track.
Last week’s data wasn’t a “good news” for the economy story. Personal income and spending were down. Real personal spending was down in December and November. Fed manufacturing indices dropped. Retail and wholesale inventories rose.
My big fear remains that:
- Consumers pulled forward demand to battle the supply chain issues.
- Consumers treated the stimulus as “free money” which it was, which inflated the perception of how strong the consumer is.
- Companies responded to this demand perception and supply chain issues, by aggressively producing goods, that may not be needed as quickly as thought. Link
A Key Bill Reminder For An Otherwise Nondescript Friday
With the first Federal Reserve rate hike widely anticipated (all but confirmed) for the March 15-16 FOMC meeting, this means that every one of the bill tenors with the exception of the 4-week are now inside that window. The 8-week maturity moved into it last week, on January 20, so its equivalent yield is now pricing higher alternative money rates by mid-March.
Therefore, we only have the 4-week trading under RRP to give us direct insight into collateral conditions (if the yield on any instrument of any maturity is less than RRP, this is a surefire sign that there is additional demand for T-bills unrelated to investment return considerations). With other bill rates fast on the rise for the upcoming rate hike sequence, there’s just this one for an easy comparable by which to directly measure any scarcity or collateral pressure.
Growth engine? It's just resource consumption, David. Begs one, and only one, question?
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2022-01-31/whats-wrong-with-economic…
"It hardly needs to be noted here that increasing the amount of producing and consuming going on in the world is the very last thing the planet needs; it is the basic cause of all the big global problems now threatening our very existence."
Touche
Haha! I liked this: "Conventional economic theory is like a theory of art couched only in terms of the thickness of paint.
"This would enable complex and mathematically precise theorising about different artists, styles and genres…but it would be so limited in scope and terms that it could tell us nothing that matters much about art."
pdk,
I have just read your link. Ok, there is much i can agree with, but a number of points occur to me, of which the first is the least important but it stood out.
"Polanyi, Tawney and others have pointed out that in Medieval times the economy was governed by moral rules that held across the whole of society, such as do not take advantage of another person’s plight, pay just wages" Really? when serfdom was common across Europe. When the church grew fat on the labour of the masses? That's just silly.
The article could have been cut at least in half as he repeats himself endlessly, but again, not that important. What isn't even mentioned is what you keep repeating. Lots of factories will eventually have to close as the desired circular economy will have to produce less. How do we then obtain what we now expect from a first world economy? Nobody want to tell people/voters that in the Brave new World they must expect less, consume less.
"" expect less, consume less "" It is possible to get everything you want but consume less. If food waste was eradicated then instantly we would halve our food production. Wear clothes that last for decades not months. One way NZ leads the world is our typical car lasts 20 years, in poor PNG they last under 5 years and in wealthy Asian countries they are traded in while new (exported to second class countries). So much of our consumption is to be fashionable, in other words for status.
The cars thing is spot on.
when we first moved to Australia three years ago. We bought a late model ex rep Mondeo for 10k. Because I was thinking about cars in a kiwi way.
There just isn’t the infrastructure here to repair cars in the same way. We ended up trading it in for a 75k brand new car. The incremental total cost of ownership ended up being only 150/month. The 5 year warranty was what did it for me.
The waste in developed countries is astronomical, goods are too cheap and treated as disposable.
Even going back 40 or 50 years people lived far more frugally in NZ.
Aussie politicians seem to be paying a harsh price for their let-it-rip pandemic approach. Even the Murdoch news polling shows a widening disapproval of the Federal Government. 2022 is an election year in Australia.
And yet : In Fortress New Zealand, faith in Saint Jacinda is starting to fade
"Support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition government increased by 6% points to 50% in December – its highest since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power in October 2017.
The increase was driven by support for National rising 5% points to 31.5%, to its highest since March 2020 (37%), while support for Act NZ was up 1% point to a new record high of 18.5%. Support for the Opposition Maori Party fell 2% points to 1% in December. "
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8889-nz-national-voting-intention-de…
Early days but certainly interesting trends. Amongst all of that the dark horse (that is meant only as a colloquial term) is The Maori Party which must be considered as being of potential to win more than just one seat in the next election. Personally I came to respect and admire the previous two co-leaders especially when they were in semi coalition with Key’s National government and understood that they progressed a commendable agenda from that position? If Labour should lose more of these seats next time, that is probably the death knell for them although maybe a Labour/Greens/Maori coalition could be cobbled together, but hard to see the electorate having an appetite for that.
I had more respect for the old leaders of the Māori Party than the new ones. The new ones are pitching to the radical left of their constituency.
I thought that link would make headlines, but can't see it on Newshub, Herald or Stuff. A rogue (Roygue) poll?
Cheers
A team of $55 million perhaps?
I got a call from Aussie last night - it was RoyMorgan research to do a survey. I agreed to it, and the frustrating thing is that they try to drive you to an answer. Like "if there was an election tomorrow who would you vote for?" and "None of them" is not an acceptable answer! So take their results with a huge grain of salt!
Haha i did a 2Cents poll not too long ago and one question was on my opinion of NZTA, unfortunalty inept and incompitent were not an option (all positive only). Leading much??
Yep still waiting for the 10k cases a day as predicted by a number of people. I thought we would be lucky to get to 2k a day by Waitangi, think we will be struggling to get to that number. Maybe the spread or the effects may not be as harsh (hence people may not be getting tested) and the vaccines have done the job. Fairly sure people were also predicted that Delta would run rampant over xmas, not the case by looks of it either.
Interesting view FCM. But predicting is perilous.
Maybe most who catch a cold arnt getting tested for fear of extended isolation.
FCM.
Omicron moves really quick now , dbls every 2-3 days , NZ will peak early March at 25k reported cases....maybe 75k not reported....
Grumpy, disenfranchised people vote for relief from what they resent. We don't report this very well; the victors (in wars, in disenfranchisement generally) tend to write the histories and the articles. Thus Hitler isn't remembered for Liebensraum fur Herrenvolk, of for commissioning the VW; he's remembered for the Holocaust (which pales into inconsequentiality when you contemplate 8 billion human animals being carried in the planetary paddock).
We are probably watching democracy disintegrating, rightly so; massed short-term hip-pocket voting just stuffs our long-term life-support systems. We will see more and more psychopaths rising to the top, by offering the undeliverable. Until someone looks up and says: They lied.
https://www.netflix.com/nz/title/81252357
Also on Netflix, perhaps the best comedy dig at bureaucracy since John Clark is the Aussie 'Utopia". 4 series, every one a gem. These folk gave us the Castle movie.
https://www.netflix.com/nz/title/80063251
To understand the Labour government watch "Utopia"
I am – and it’s quite good.
Had to smile – the below headline from the Herald a few days ago could have been taken straight out of the series.
Auckland light rail to slash CBD-airport travel time, second harbour crossing decision in 2023
“Light rail gets the green light, second harbour crossing is now on a fast track.”
pdk,
"Thus Hitler isn't remembered for Liebensraum fur Herrenvolk, of for commissioning the VW; he's remembered for the Holocaust (which pales into inconsequentiality when you contemplate 8 billion human animals being carried in the planetary paddock)."
I thought long and hard before deciding to reply to that statement, but feel compelled to, so bizarre is it. I think you may come to regret writing it; I certainly hope so. Let me pick it apart. No matter how often I read it, it comes across as somehow being 'unfair' to Hitler. Really? Liebensraum was precisely the rationale for the invasion of much of Europe and a very twisted rationale at that. Is VW somehow meant to stand in his defence? I can imagine a defence lawyer saying well I know he bears responsibility for the Holocaust, but hey, he gave us VW. Surely that means something. No it doesn't, not for one second.
To say that the Holocaust 'pales into inconsequentiality' is almost beyond comprehension. Apart from the utter irrelevance of the comparison, it is exceedingly insulting. I could say more, but if you can't see what is so glaringly wrong with what you wrote, then it would be pointless.
I have almost erased my reply several times, but it would be cowardly to let your statement go unanswered.
I agree and some very intelligent people were killed at that. Perhaps contemplate the possibility that just one of those killed could have made the world a much better place today. Israel is well ahead of most of the world today as it stands.
Well posted Linklater! Next time don’t hesitate, not for a moment.
""To say that the Holocaust 'pales into inconsequentiality' is almost beyond comprehension. Apart from the utter irrelevance of the comparison, it is exceedingly insulting."" - well posted.
“Aussie politicians seem to be paying a harsh price for their let-it-rip pandemic approach.”
There seems to be a movement by the media and other powers that push back hard against any govt or country which has a more open approach to COVID. Eg backlash against NSW Premier, Aussie PM, Boris, Sweden, etc. Open = bad, Lockdown and strict measures= good.
addicted to crisis
This sticks in my throat to say but actually the MSM have it right here. On the science less open approaches have less loss of life so are the better solution.
Backlash against BoJo on the other hand is strictly of his own making. British governance looks like the outtakes from Dumb and Dumber at the moment.
My nephew in Sweden has omicron, confirmed two days ago. Apparently half his school have it.
He and my brother's family need to self isolate for 5 days. No big dramas.
Is vaping banned in schools because it vividly demonstrates how patently useless masks are? I wonder if the science class does a study on mask effectiveness?
Well considering they take the masks off to do PE and play touch rugby, rugby, cricket etc...fairly sure you are correct in that wearing masks at another class is pointless, and as soon as they out of the gates they whip them off.
That link is curious as the sources it cites is virtually completely the opposite of all the information that came out when COVID first popped up and we were all being told to wear masks, and there were multiple reports that supported the view. Which is legit?
No the opposite Murray - at the start of the panic we were told to not wear masks.
"“Seriously people—STOP BUYING MASKS!” So tweeted then–surgeon general Jerome Adams on February 29, 2020, adding, “They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus.” Two days later, Adams said, “Folks who don’t know how to wear them properly tend to touch their faces a lot and actually can increase the spread of coronavirus.” Less than a week earlier, on February 25, public-health authorities in the United Kingdom had published guidance that masks were unnecessary even for those providing community or residential care: “During normal day-to-day activities facemasks do not provide protection from respiratory viruses, such as COVID-19 and do not need to be worn by staff.” About a month later, on March 30, World Health Organization (WHO) Health Emergencies Program executive director Mike Ryan said that “there is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any particular benefit.” He added, “In fact there’s some evidence to suggest the opposite” because of the possibility of not “wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly” and of “taking it off and all the other risks that are otherwise associated with that.”
https://www.city-journal.org/do-masks-work-a-review-of-the-evidence
I suggest you're spreading misinformation Profile.
How about this; "The preponderance of evidence indicates that mask wearing reduces transmissibility per contact by reducing transmission of infected respiratory particles in both laboratory and clinical contexts. Public mask wearing is most effective at reducing spread of the virus when compliance is high." From here; https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118
Or this; "Face masks combined with other preventive measures, such as getting vaccinated, frequent hand-washing and physical distancing, can help slow the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends masks for the general public. If you’re fully vaccinated and are in an area with a high number of new COVID-19 cases, the CDC recommends wearing a mask indoors in public and outdoors in crowded areas or when you are in close contact with unvaccinated people. People who haven’t been fully vaccinated should wear face masks indoors and outdoors where there is a high risk of COVID-19 transmission, such as crowded events or large gatherings."
From here; https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/cor…
Profile is right. The official message in New Zealand in early 2020 was "No masks"
Correct. It was the same in the UK too.
It's honestly shocking how much the narrative is able to be changed without people noticing. The populace has the memory of a goldfish.
We have always been at war with Eastasia.
Michael Baker has gone from "The virus goes down from your eyes to your nose anyway, so I think people should not bother with face masks." in early 2020 to two year olds should wear masks the other day.
Along the way he wins The Science(tm) communicator of the year award.
There was a massive shortage of masks at that stage, certainly not enough for everyone. There was no suggestion that people in high risk situations (medical or quarantine) not wear masks.
Now there are plenty for everyone and we know much more about Covid is transmitted - almost always by sharing airspace with an infected person. So the emphasis is on masks and ventilation, and less on disinfecting the outside of your groceries when you get them home.
Are the 12 studies (+ the 10 study WHO review) listed in the paper also "misinformation"as you put it? The explosion of covid cases after mask mandates were imposed in 12 states/countries listed also misinformation? Perhaps also read section G and have a look at the video in section F before accusing people of "misinformation".
So if they are so bloody useless why is there any sale for them at all let alone wearing them in hospitals . How could marketers manage to sell such a useless article and uncomfortable to boot . In what circumstances would any body use one ? (sarcasm intended)
How could marketers manage to sell such a useless article and uncomfortable to boot.
Because they've been mandated by Government.
Masks are very useful - just not for stopping inhaled aerosols the size of covid virus.
The initial advice about masks was based on people who aren't professional mask wearers wearing them and making the situation worse because they don't have the discipline that hospital theatre staff have. Hospital staff use masks as intended because they don't want to kill their patients through post-op infections because they did all the things your everyday Joe does when wearing a mask. The public can't use them as they were intended to be used (who else uses the same mask day in, day out as required and stuffs them in their pocket when they get off the train?)
Think about it - medical grade masks catch water droplets and keep them inside the mask (that's what the blue layer does) so Covid isn't carried in suspended water droplets. The mask protects others. But if you touch your face and then touch objects then you transfer your goobies to those objects and aerosol transmission is replaced by surface transmission.
Or, if someone without a mask has coughed a Covid-containing water droplet that hits the water repellent layer of your mask, it sits there until you take your mask off, touching the droplet and then likely transferring Covid to your eyes, mouth or nose. So in order to use a mask effectively it has to be fitted properly, never re-used, and very strict protocols have to be followed when removing the mask for it to be any use. People aren't trained in those protocols.
My theory is governments made rules about masks because they wanted to look like they were doing something, and masks were something that might make a difference. They knew the points above, but put them in place anyway because they *might* help, and any naysayers not understanding t he above would pile onto them without knowing the facts.
.
What has this comment got to do on a business news morning report Profile?
Yeah what is demonstrable lack of critical thinking skills and basic science in education/MOE/MOH got to do with the future of business and the broader economy in NZ? Let's just import skilled immigrants and rent houses to our uneducated children.
Long piece of string you have there..
I also find the governments take on improvised mask silly. Sure they aren't designed or tested to stop the spread, but neither is me attaching a bit of cloth to some elastic, which is 100% acceptable. Either enforce scientifically proven and tested masks or drop the pretense of protecting us.
It is likely the same people that decree, quite soundly, that riders on motor bikes & bicycles must wear protective helmets, but unsoundly reason that those on motorised E scooters, don’t need ‘em.
Moderator, why have so many anti-mask wearing comments been allowed today. Not what we want to read about in the morning financial news!
There's possibly a very sound financial reason: commenters might be shorting mask company stocks, or, conversely, buying more of 'em. And Interest is a thoroughly Financial site....
And thus unmasked, Jason hastily re-invested his entire portfolio with Apiary Apparel Inc.
Agreed, perhaps we can have a separate article which just let's those who are interested have a discussion without wasting the time of the rest of us?
Sound like Adern who will only take questions from the ‘approved media’.
People in a free country are allowed to express their views on topics such at health are they not - or does our government decide our health measures for us without our input?
Australia looks like they are one of the economies that could engineer a soft landing if their Reserve Bank get raising now.
As a country running a trade surplus I would hope they could.
Pete, I know this is the Aussie experience.
Completely for the gut. I think NZ will have a much lower peak. Kiwis just don’t live on top of each other the way the major Aussie centres do.
IMO the best comparative is South Australia, which peaked out at 5k daily cases.
Jonny.
You may be right , l am in QLD , same pop as NZ , and working with there numbers...
Pretty much all over here....life is good....l worry Jacinda & MOH will make Omicron worse than it needs to be....lockdowns/isolate etc......most deaths came from residents of rest homes......l am sure they have that sorted......?
South Australia didn't take a let it rip stance, they seem to have been under similar restrictions to us (except I think I saw their maximum gathering size was 30 not 100) and they're reaping the benefit of that.
It has spent north of AU$300 bln on its money printing stimulus so far...
Aus has not 'spent north of AU$300 bln' on its money stimulus. QE involves a change in the form that Govt liabilites take - from bonds to reserves. A few billion of QE adds basically nothing to the Govt deficit - QE is not spending.
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