Here's our summary of key economic events overnight with news Omicron is now bending global economies, undermining expansions everywhere.
But first, we can report that dairy prices rose strongly again in the overnight auction. They were up +4.1% in USD terms and up +6.4% in NZD terms. This time, the rise was led by the key WMP price. Volumes offered were marginally more than at the same auction a year ago. Overall prices however are up +28% over the same time frame, and that is leading the FAO world dairy price index which is up +17% in the same period. (But having noted that, they are not quite yet back to their 2008 all-time highs. And the highest GDT level was at an auction in April 2013 and we are still -8% below that.)
In the US, there is a warning that the January jobs numbers will be 'ugly' as Omicron sweeps over the country. Illness absences count as job losses in their upcoming non-farm payrolls report, and that will have an outsized impact on the numbers due on Saturday NZT. Jobs growth under these conditions will be stunted, perhaps as low at +150,000 in the month.
The latest factory PMI readings indicate American factories got off to a slower start in 2022 with both the main indexes reporting a drop in their expansion levels. The widely-watched ISM PMI noted they are still in a "a demand-driven, supply chain-constrained environment" but that new order growth is slowing and backlogs are easing. The internationally-benchmarked Markit one pointed to "soft demand conditions and labor shortages".
The Dallas Fed factory survey retreated more than these national measures.
However, the American retail impulse rose last week, as measured by the Redbook survey. The year-ago base is lowish, so that colours the results, but it is a continuing good result for them.
But German retail sales stumbled in December as Europe's largest economy struggles to come to terms with the Omicron pandemic.
In Australia, retail sales dropped -4.4% month-on-month in December as Omicron kept consumers from spending on goods and services, posting its biggest monthly fall since April 2020. The latest reading was also the first decline in monthly retail activity in four months, reversing sharply from a +7.3% rise in November. The data fits with reports of falling consumer confidence and credit card spending in December. This December 2021 level is however +4.8% higher than December 2020 - before any inflation adjustment. All of 2021 is +5.3% higher than all of 2020, and +12% higher than all of 2019.
And late yesterday, the RBA confirmed it is about to stop its QE bond buying program. But it did push back on expectations that rate hikes are about to start there in 2022.
In NSW, there were 12,818 new community cases reported yesterday, similar the prior day, now with 129,942 active locally-acquired cases, and 30 daily deaths. There are now 2,779 in hospital there, off their high. In Victoria they reported 11,311 more new infections yesterday. There are now 72,710 active cases in that state - and there were 34 more deaths there. Queensland is reporting 7,588 new cases and 10 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 1505 yesterday with 3 more deaths. The ACT has 522 new cases, and Tasmania 699 new cases.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.79% and unchanged. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today a little steeper at +63 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +84 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also unchanged at +175 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate has stayed at 1.90%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.72%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is +1 bps firmer at 2.60%.
On Wall Street, the S&P500 is down a minor -0.2% to start their Tuesday trading. Overnight, European markets were all up about +0.9% led by Paris. Yesterday, Tokyo rose +0.3%. Hong Kong and Shanghai are closed already for their week-long holiday. Yesterday the ASX200 rose +0.5% while the NZX50 rose +1.4%.
The price of gold starts today at US$1803 and up another +US$7 from this time yesterday.
And oil prices start today little-changed from yesterday at just under US$87/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$89/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today +½c firmer at 66.2 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are unchanged at our lower level at 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are firmer at 58.9 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.9 and a small recovery.
The bitcoin price is up just +2.4% since this time yesterday and now at US$39,004. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.4%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
92 Comments
(Actually, maybe I won't...)
In a country with one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, and some of the most stringent lockdown and isolation measures ever used, we're still worried about our economy being brought to its knees; not by the virus itself, but by our disproportionate and unjustifiable response to it.
chebbo.
Correct.....l think Jacinda & her team wont long Covid , instead of getting it all done before winter....it will be here all year....more people have & will Die from poor gov decisions than will Die with Omicron....cost/benefits anyone....all about votes now..
Bang on, we have 5.5 million spread over a fairly large geographic area, not 10 million in a tightly packed area. Also we over 90% vaccinated, yet have over the top lockout and lock-down rules. Does it really mater if 10-100 cases sneak in through the border (still have the testing and make sure Dble/Triple Vaxed) if we already have 100's of cases here, I doubt it. Anyway based on all the experts modelling we should have 240 plus cases today, 500 come Friday..
"Denmark has lifted all of its domestic Covid-19 restrictions, including the wearing of face masks, making it the first European Union country to do so.
Nightclubs have reopened, late-night alcohol sales have resumed, and the Danish coronavirus app is no longer needed to enter venues.
While cases are still relatively high, the authorities say the virus no longer qualifies as a "critical threat".
That is due to the country's high vaccination rate, experts say."
31 Jan Denmark
Daily Deaths 17
7 day average 19
So you would be OK with these stats in NZ?
Let me guess.."they would gave died already or it was not covid"
As with all these stats, is Denmark reporting deaths from Covid, or doing the whole 'test them when they die in a car crash, oops they have Covid, better chalk that out' approach some countries have taken? It really is a blur now.
2) Deaths = the statistics on fatalities include deaths recorded within 30 days of the detection of COVID-19 infection in the individual on the basis of PCR tests. COVID19 is not necessarily the cause of death.
https://www.sst.dk/en/english/corona-eng/status-of-the-epidemic/covid-1…
Denmark has a first world health system so the daily deaths here in NZ would be much worse.
Frazz you are ok with the 100 odd excess deaths a week in NZ in 2021?
https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/
Are you concerned about these government policy deaths?
Vaccine mandate: 314 staff, volunteers have left St John
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/127122945/vaccine-m…
St John investigating deaths after ambulance delays due to staff shortage
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/460444/st-john-investigating-deaths…
Ministers plan to scrap vaccine mandate for NHS staff in England
Health secretary Sajid Javid announces U-turn that will prevent exodus of thousands of health workers
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jan/31/ministers-plan-to-scrap…
Stats show that 156 people died in January in Denmark. The same roughly as for all of 2021. That is 5 per day. All deaths. Please explain.
frazz,
I have no agenda, so the question is not loaded. How many of these deaths can be clearly said to be down to covid? How many of those people had significant co-morbidities, with covid just part of the mix?
The number of excess deaths is useful as a rough guide, but doesn't give the full picture.
Until we can get a much more detailed breakdown, I won't simply accept the headline number.
More generally, are you saying that no covid deaths are acceptable? If so, how do you deal with the 'flu deaths we experience every year?
Again, how many die in NZ each year because the proven life-saving drugs they need are not funded by Pharmac and are too expensive for most?
And there is more to life than death. Whether or not you agree with government’s handling of covid to date, NZ has now reached the point of vaccination having achieved as much protection that is on offer. Yes there is a percentage of unvaccinated but the larger percentage that are, cannot be held to ransom to protect them. And yes hospital services remain lacking and yes that is not entirely this government’s fault but redress on this will take years of application. New Zealand can no longer remain a closed up, isolated nation. NZ is part of the world and it’s people don’t either deserve or expect to be treated as some are, say North Korea. It is now time for New Zealanders to take over their responsibility for themselves individually, and get on with the freedom of life.
Sweden's health authority has also just released an official statement saying they will not be recommending vaccination for under 12s, due to the extremely low risk posed to this age group by COVID-19.
It's encouraging to see some science-based public health policy being implemented, even if you do have to look halfway across the world to see it.
The Economist has done analysis of excess mortality since March 2020 to Jan 2022. NZ had -53 excess deaths per 100,000 people, Aus -52, Norway 37, Denmark 57. Sweden 123,
Britain 224, US 297, Mexico 468, Russia 748, Bulgaria 903.
So before people get excited about deaths, look at some data. The US hasn't actually done that badly compared with other countries (28th from the top), the UK is far below many European countries, an Mauritius was almost as good as NZ with negative excess mortality.
Edit: Link
The next piece of analysis that The Economist needs to do then is to find out what percentage of those excess deaths were due to COVID-19. Unfortunately, because of the very unusual way in which we've chosen to classify COVID-19 deaths, this is almost impossible to do.
Edited my post to add the link. They've done that. Interesting charts comparing various flu seasons etc
Yes but because of the way that COVID-19 deaths are classified, that's comparing apples with oranges. You need to use the same definitions if you want to perform a meaningful comparison.
What else would you expect from the land of the Volvo station wagon ... sensibility and practicality on wheels.
Don't forget safety!
True that. I've had several Volvos (before they turned into a Chinese car company with a slapped on badge) and they've all been great. Safe, reliable, practical - plus the turbo one had a surprising turn of speed.
I always liked Saab more, but hard to find these days and parts are a nightmare.
The Scandinavians do some great work.
Wait for tomoorow's annoncement where Jacinda Arden will be announcing opening of borders. Should be from March but as have to announce under pressure could postpone by a fortnight or by a month as is thier modus operandi but announcent, she has to.
Problem is no one trusts anything she says now, they have backtracked that many times. People & Businesses like to be able to plan, hard to plan on any announcement from this mob.
My guess is the spin will be omicron has pushed everything back a month & so the original plan will have to be extended relatively plus another two weeks for the usual abundance of caution. By my calculations therefore a limited opening for returning New Zealanders from Australia that are triple vaccinated & tested negative just prior to departure, to be introduced not before 31 March 2022 in principle.
perfect read -- 190 people a week die of cancer - 180 a week from heart issues -- 55 in two years from Covid -- maybe the 60billion we borrowed could have been spent in those areas -- MRI machines and specialists -- as far more of these deaths are preventable by early identification - Flu will kill 20 a week max -- and in other countries the average age of death is over 70+ ie its older people getting Covid and dying -- just the same as older people getting flu and dying -- Everyone who wants to be vacced is -- and we have a range of treatment options.
As someone who runs high end residential health services -- i am petrified that some of my clients will die or be seriously harmed because i am down to delivering with 2 health care assistants instead of a nurse, occupational therapist and 4 or 5 health care assistants for long periods of time -- simply because staff are close contacts and have to stand down for 10-14 days -- its not the costs involved -- as we simply cant backfill as everyone and every where else will be short too!
Thankyou Kpnuts for giving readers the real life consequences of these over the top restrictions imposed by Labour. Sick of hearing one side of the covid story from the media...
I think a look at the sharp rise in mortality over the past 2 years in NZ will confirm that the reduced services have caused a lot of deaths.
Check out https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-trac…
You'll find that 3000 fewer people have died over the past 2 years than expected. Maybe the deaths will occur later, but they certainly aren't showing up in the data yet.
Good work WWH. The sort of post that adds to our knowledge, rather than just someone's reckons.
yes -- maybe down to better handwashing and social distancing restricting the spread of other non covid illnesses especially flu -- or less traffic- less sports less social activities (look at the road and swiiming deaths over summer so far) -- less alcohol related due to lockdowns - so DV / assaults etc -- the situation is unclear -- but deaths are not the only measure -- how about quality of life --
3000 cancelled procedures in the last lockdown allow -- includes cancelled hip/ knee and back operations - higher levels of anxiety and stress - kids missing significant amounts of education etc -- not to mention undiagnosed cancers, tumours, heart blockages etc --
its not a simply + or - calculation
It's interesting because 2 weeks ago I looked at the data on the internet and it showed our mortality rate up 10% for 2020, now it has all changed.
It is odd - the Economist uses the Human Mortality Database in its figures and that database shows excess mortality in NZ for all of 2021/22 and majority of 2020.
The Economist doesn't seem to use age adjusted data? - which is more useful that raw excess death. The age adjusted death rates for the UK are quite revealing for putting 2020 in to context with the last 100 years or even the last 20 years.
https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarr…
Family member a Reg Nurse (A&E). Struggling with staff shortages. Mngt just announced that if they get covid and run out of sick leave they must take annual leave.
They recently had a covid positive case in the wait room for 3 hours.
No break from work at all over covid..not sent home like school teachers and the like for weeks on end (followed by weeks of school holidays)
Any wonder they have had a gutsfull.
One again msm missing in action.
My wife is a nurse, and they have been mandated to have a booster. On Monday she got hers. On Tuesday she went down hard, sicker than I've ever seen her in 22 years of marriage, vomiting and headache. A little better today but has contacted her doctor at my request. My opinion is that she got sick because she did what her employer asked, so she shouldn't lose sick leave because of it!
Omicron appears to have had a low impact on jobs in the UK and they're a couple of months ahead of us.
UK had a lot of prior infection. A British colleague is double vaxxed and has had Covid twice... All I have is my 2 vaccinations.
Take a look at this video WWH - https://youtu.be/eK83QqbNOmU?t=433
Two jabs should be all you need, esp with omicon.
I'm not worried. I'm a numbers person. I have no underlying conditions, am fit, healthy and vaccinated.
https://thekaka.substack.com/p/robertson-says-voters-dont-really?token=…
Robertson says that Voters do not wants the house price to fall despite survey suggesting that good number of people voted for house price to fall.
This statement exposes Jacinda and Robertson :
1 : Proves that they pick and choose data and advise that suits them.
2 : Robertson said aloud and exposed his mindset as he never said Citizens or people or New Zealander but he said VOTERS, confirming that are not worried about people BUT Votes.
3: Become master in Manipulation by totally twisting the survey which is overwhelmely against their narrative.
4 : How power corrupts, as this is the same Jacinda who in 2017 was so vocal about housing crisis and shouting from each and every public platform to get votes.
Is it that this people have been so brain washed by people surrounding and advising them that are not able to see the ground reality or may be do not want to see as is very hard for them to fathom that even those who have houses, do not mind fall in house price as this in itself highlight, how BIG the crisis is.
Robertson when he says No Kiwi wants house price to fall IS ONLY TALKING ABOUT HIMSELF AND MAY BE JACINDA ARDEN and this attitude is their downfall.
Excellent reading by Bernard Hickey.
Well in that case they should be pleased with themselves because Core Logic rates a 2.1 rise in value for January. But I am right with you here Tkk. This is the most mealy mouthed, inept, incompetent lot that I have ever seen in government going back to an early encounter as a youth with Sydney Holland. The only skill they have is being able to talk out of the side of their mouths, with a forked tongue.
They are so awful that I am seriously considering voting National to get rid of them.
You'll be voting for a team of yesterdays people, if you do.
Day before yesterday, methinks.
:)
Events will probably overtake, at this stage. The question is: Who could address a paradigm-change best?
And the answer is: The more conservative they are, the worse they will be at adaption. This is why Labour in '35. Incumbents had no idea..... Reminds me of others......
In my opinion, a true conservative wouldn't generate this s..t storm in the first place. I would call myself conservative, but I don't know what the hell these Nat people are. I've heard Luxton use the "rising tide" phrase, so we know exactly where that is going! Certainly nothing in common with them, which is why I've always voted left. Although the evolution of the Green party into a purely growth focused, far leftist organisation, has me wondering if I'll ever vote again?
A true conservative (Burkean) believes society is something passed from generation to generation and care must be taken in doing this. True conservatives wouldn't be enriching themselves at the expense of the younger generations via housing policy, as has been the case with the last few governments.
Faux conservatives here in NZ are more just basic narcissists.
Labour a bigger flop than National on housing. Didn’t think it could be possible, but it has been 🤔
Labour inherited 9 years of smile and wave. Since they have introduced several polices, non ded interest, bright line and rental standards all of which the landlording mob detest.
Not enough, buy more than Key ever did.
John Key 2007-
"We also want to ensure that every young New Zealander who works hard and is disciplined about saving can expect to own their own home and thereby have a real stake in the economic future of this country"
Delivery - Nil.
John Key on housing affordability :: New Zealand Property Investors Federation (nzpif.org.nz)
It’s the comments from Adern and Robertson that are highly hypocritical. ‘We want affordable housing but we also want house prices to keep rising because homeowners never want their property price to fall as it’s their largest investment’.
The only way for housing to become affordable if for prices to fall either in nominal or real terms…so if you don’t want them to fall don’t campaign on that topic and don’t get elected upon false propositions given as a promise to the voting public.
At least be honest and keep a consistent narrative. Otherwise it’s highly hypocritical. Probably asking far to much for a politician.
Expecting politicians to not lie is a big task. Anything for power.
NZ need leader nit vote thitsty politicians
Yes highly hypocritical & not isolated to just any one issue, the habit has grown. Old Doobie Bros album comes to mind “ What Were Once Vices Are Now Habits.” The non disclosure of the “P50” component in the Auckland Rail proposal is just another glaring example of sleight of hand and non transparency.
P95
3 Waters.
Both hypocritical and contradictory as Hickey points out. But no follow up form a room of msm reporters,
That can happen trying to clean up someone elses enormous mess, with no easy options.
Good point. Let’s all of us just hope then that National are fully up with the challenge of that, in 2023 when they takeover.
Luxtons "Rising tide" quote indicates to me it's not just the challenge that's beyond Nats, it's reality!
Pt8. Don’t disagree there. National sure had better rid itself of some of the relics and hanger ons and start presenting some candidates to the electorate that are of a damn sight more calibre & integrity than the shockers that they have had to oust in the last few years. Like you indicate, buzz words & sound bites are useless grandstanding. The electorate is looking for substance.
Also their earlier discussion points seemed to include removing all tax from property investors and leaving working folk to fund society, throwing open to foreign residential property investment again, and flooding the market with more people...
And Luxon's NIMBYism, to boot.
Young people will have no quarter from National. Better to look elsewhere than Natbour.
So why say one can fix all these problems real easy? Either mistaken, or lying. Either way, pretty bad from government ministers. My personal favourite is still Clarkie, with his comments on the new banking regulations.
The soundtrack is worth a listen. Hickey (and of course int.co) the lone voices in trying to call the govt out - msm absent of course, trying to distract us with some other meaningless issue.
I really hate the way in which our leaders have developed the habit of gaslighting, and that the media don’t call them out on it.
John Key used:
“Look, I don’t believe New Zealanders care about x “
Jacinda Ardern uses:
“I reject that”
It feels like we have a political system where elected officials no longer feel like they need to listen or respond to the electorate.
Sadly true
The dairy auction results at the beginning of the article may look great and it's indication on payout maybe good but the soil moisture map at the bottom puts a entirely different perspective on it.
Rain forecast this weekend , and more cyclones queing up behind it. Wether they hit NZ , or slide to the east is a lottery however.
The last certain one decided to head to the west coast, there now, dumping the entire north islands rain on a 30 km strip of land. Not fair.
Daughter lives down there though and her previously empty for weeks rain tank is overflowing in one night
Had a talk with the area manager yesterday, she rekons China won't take milk from farms where workers have covid, which is some pretty bad news because it looks to me like every farm is going to get covid at some point. Not sure how this will play out, but maybe there is a bit of panic buying before the plague hits us, which could explain the strong prices so far.
Balance has put urea prices up to 1440, which is getting closer to the economic limits, 31c/kg/dm at 10:1 Ravensdown 1248 last I checked.
Surely the milk powder (China does not get raw milk) creation process would kill all viruses etc? I think your area manager has to be wrong on that.
I don't give a flying F for China.
Wouldn't be the first time my area manager has been wrong. Though I will give her the benefit of the doubt, it wouldn't be the first time shipments to China have been rejected for inexplicable reasons.
I was told to notify Fonterra if anyone on the farm has covid, so that Fonterra can direct the product into specific products/markets ie China won't take product that comes from farms that have covid.
Apparently govt will direct me on how exactly we can keep milking while self isolating. I was concerned that if one of us got covid we would all be close contacts and I simply can't just send everyone home to isolate. Life has to go on and there is a certain amount of work that has to happen every day.
And I see that Russias Urea export quotas are kicking in, reducing supply to europe even more when it is just coming into spring.
And this is on top of China alerady limiting supply.
Future is looking more expensive by the day.
How do people here feel about National wanting to raise the pension age to 67?
Personally, being of the younger generation, I am resigned to the fact that by the time I reach that age, the pension either will not exist or the eligibility age will be far older, say, 75. Just another f*** you to the younger people in this country, and another lovely benefit to being a boomer.
VTHO- People will have a range of views. As a Landscaper/ Gardener with a permanently damaged (unfixable) spine ,and creaking joints ,at 56, it is a stretch of imagination to see myself still able to work ,at 65 years ,let alone 67.
How does it work for racial groups that are more in manual labour, and have less life expectancy? They never get to collect on their taxed labour ,but work hard ,die younger and hardly benefit from their pension at all.
So , given that fact ,and well known situation, it's more complex than commonly considered.
If you cannot work you will be able to go on a benefit regardless of age.
Raising the age of Super postpones double dipping and I think double dipping is the major issue . Public Service full of over 65 yr olds - many on go slows as they know they cannot be fired and don't care about pay rises.
But that lead to income testing as a question. Whilst simple for paye earners, a nightmare when it comes to self employed, trusts, companies and those with foreign income sources and assets (of which NZ has a large proportion due to immigration).
A very complex area.
Anyone would think superannuitants don't spend the meagre govt super largesse at Nat voter owned businesses?
Raise pension age to 67? Daft.
I want to see politicians outline how they see old age income will be for 30 and 50 years out. Not some kneejerk idea.
The Nats just failed that future vision. But no other political party has had such vision either.
Go for it is what I say. It should have been done long ago. And it doesn't shoot up overnight as a lot of people seem to think. It goes up by, say, a month a year for 24 years until it hits 67 under National's old policy (IIRC) so if it was passed in 2024 it would only affect those born after 1980 (which includes me).
The disability/sickness benefit would be set at a similar amount so those incapacitated by manual labour would not miss out on money if they couldn't work at 65
I'm personally against it. i turn 65 in August so will not be affected by any changes. I am also very fit and active for my age. I more relate to someone in their 40s. But I cannot afford to retire when I reach 65. I am not on a large income (<$100K), and most if not all I know in my age group are significantly less fit and healthy than I am and are looking forward to be able to retire. An aside, racial disparities (Maori die on average 7 years earlier than others) - health and fitness is largely a personal lifestyle choice, and these have consequences. Maori don't die younger if they look after themselves. Improve peoples education.
While I am fit, I must say your body lets you know you are ageing in myriad ways. It is increasingly difficult to maintain my fitness, and has been noticeable since I turned 50.
I personally believe most of the young, when they hit these ages will feel the same, so any extension of the retirement age will be a betrayal of them. I believe people should be allowed to retire at an age where they can still enjoy it.
Economists talk about costs, but politicians fiddling with the pot is what is screwing us. It really annoys me big time when someone on a huge salary with a retirement package no other Kiwi could hope for, tells us that we need to work longer because the little we need is unaffordable.
Last paragraph spot on.
Less and less planet means your pension/kiwisaver/investment won't go as far. If indeed the system survives as a marking device.
It's Boolean territory too; people doing too much are an existential problem; yet we are advocating people doing more? The only mitigation might be a falling population - but too little, too late?
Keep the pension at 65 for those who have spent their lives in manual labour jobs and raise it to 67 for those who worked behind a desk.
Nice sentiment but would be fraught with complications to implement
Not that fraught. Unemployment benefits, sickness benefits pay at a similar rate
65 to 67 is a waste of time, seen it first hand by even those 60+ you just go on the unemployment benefit instead as your seen as unemployable anyway.
Manual labour? There is such a thing as mental burnout. Just as real.
Lots of folks after a lifetime of hassle, managing, and organising, just can't keep it up. They have to flag it.
The biggest stress factor for me (office worker) has been some workmates. A minority who are complete and utter a-holes.
In an open plan office with people crammed in, it's incredibly stressful. Makes coming in to work not pleasant.
Looks like a general economic recovery is beginning for the world albeit likely to be K-shaped.
I wonder which side of NZ's recovery will be on that 'K'.
The workforce is already diminishing under Red Light: staff disappeared WFH, some locked inside their office, no f2f meetings, rules discouraging customers, what an absolute shambles.
Looks like we will need to give more money to foreign investors to plant our sheep and beef country in pine trees.
"China’s Xi Says Climate Targets Can’t Compromise Energy Security"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-26/xi-jinping-says-clim…
The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today a little steeper at +63 bps. - flatter trend in recent weeks. Hence:
Goldman Slashes 2022 GDP Forecast Again, Warns Of "Sharp Deceleration" In Growth"
Small business, especially hospitality, and employment:
The owners of these businesses will in future have to return to 'normal times' and roll their sleeves up and work at the coal face themselves. Others will have to retrench their empire building (eg trying to run 2,3,or more businesses at the same time) and concentrate on just one where the owner can offer personal service.
Personal tastes will have to be catered for....for instance I and at least 4 other people I know can't patronize restaurants and take-aways because we are intolerant of all cooking oils. We are not catered for so we have developed an indifferent attitude to the whimpering cries from the hospitality industry whining how hard done by they are. Even coffee bars make scones with cooking oil instead of butter...they taste awful.
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