Here's our summary of key economic events overnight with news that despite challenges from every direction, the giant American economy is proving quite resilient. Sensible leadership is certainly helping.
As we had indicated previously in other measures, American retail sales came in strong, and better than anticipated in January. There were up +12.3% from the same month a year ago, far higher than inflation. The month-on-month gain was +3.8% when a +2% rise was expected. This is strong in anyone's language, led by online retailing, furniture, and cars.
Also strong was US industrial production in January, up in real terms by +4.1% and now above pre-pandemic levels.
Some of this is due to inventory building, itself a response to the supply-chain problems. In fact, the rise in business inventories in December was the largest since 1992, up +2.1% in one month, up +10% in a year. However, it should also be noted that the inventory-to-sales ratio isn't rising. And that suggests the rising inventories are not a building economic problem.
American mortgage applications fell again and by quite a bit, and the third weekly fall in the past four weeks. Probably that is because mortgage interest rates rose sharply again, now over 4% plus points and taking them back to pre-pandemic levels.
The US has reported a capital and financial account deficit of -US$52 bln in December following a downwardly revised +US$217 bln surplus in November. It was their largest capital outflow in 15 months, since September 2020.
At 8am today (NZT) we get the Fed minutes of their last meeting, and there is usually some interesting insights there. We will update this item if there are any this time too. Eyes will be clues about the size of the anticipated March rate hike.
Canada's inflation rate rose to 5.1% in January, above estimates of 4.8%. It is the first time it has been above 5% in 31 years.
However, Chinese inflation is retreating as their economy slows. Their CPI was up just +0.9% in the year to January, and well below the December rate of +1.5%. Perhaps deflation threatens them? Their producer prices are rising but also not as fast. They were up +9.1% in January, a retreat from the +10.2% in December. Month-on-month they fell, and that is two consecutive months of month-on-month falls. Expect a Chinese rate cut soon.
Chinese official media can't hide the growing economic slowdown there. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has "urged efforts to gather wisdom from all sides to improve the government's work, and specified measures to bolster China's industrial economy and service sectors". They are stepping up support for sectors who are doing it hard. And some local governments have lost their land sales gravy train, resulting in sharp pay cuts for some staff, certainly layoffs. Its bad when local governments are doing that. And all this comes at a time when 10+ mln people are about to join their jobs market. The last thing they need is a restless unemployed and disillusioned population.
And another large Chinese property developer is attempting to renegotiate repayment on about US$1 bln in bonds. That crisis goes on and on.
Separately, China has discovered a very large lithium resource in their Himalaya mountain region.
EU industrial production for December was more data that surprised on the positive side. But it was the small developed countries that drove this, outperforming Germany, France and Spain. Italy was the large economy that contributed.
After holding the line that rates won't rise in Australia for a long time yet, most observers now expect the RBA to crumble soon. Even their Treasury Secretary, who sits in the RBA board, now thinks that. Aussie home owners could face higher mortgage repayments as early as June. Financial markets and economists are warning a rapid run-up in inflation will force their central bank to lift official rates above 2% within a year.
In NSW, there has been another big rise to 10,463 new community cases reported yesterday, now with 49,578 active locally-acquired cases, and another 27 daily deaths. There are now 1,478 in hospital there, now well off their high. In Victoria they reported 8,149 more new infections yesterday, little-changed. There are now 49,936 active cases in that state - but there were 18 deaths there. Queensland is reporting 6,596 new cases and 12 deaths. In South Australia, new cases have risen to 1138 yesterday and 2 more deaths. The ACT has 494 new cases and no deaths, and Tasmania 625 new cases and no deaths. Overall in Australia, more than 27,000 new cases have been reported so far although not all counts are in yet.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 2.04% and unchanged since this time yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today steeper again at +49 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +86 bps and their 30 day-10yr curve is out to +200 bps. The Australian ten year bond is unchanged 2.24%. The China Govt ten year bond is -1 bp softer at 2.81%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is higher by +1 bp at 2.83%.
On Wall Street, the S&P500 is down -0.5% in their Wednesday afternoon trade. Overnight, European markets all closed down by a mere -0.1%. Yesterday, Tokyo ended up a very strong +2.2%, Hong Kong was also up and by +1.5% but Shanghai was up only +0.6% in their case. The ASX200 ended its Wednesday session up +1.1% and the NZX50 rose a stronger +1.5%.
The price of gold starts today at US$1865/oz and up +US$13 from this time yesterday.
And oil prices are up +US$2 to just under US$93/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is just over US$94/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today marginally firmer at 66.7 USc. Against the Australian dollar we unchanged at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally firmer at 58.6 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 71.1 and +30 bps firmer.
The bitcoin price is down -1.2% since this time yesterday and now at US$43,587. Volatility over the past 24 hours has modest at +/- 1.6%. And we should note there is a tussle going on in Russia between the central bank who are resisting a loose policy on cryptos due to the financial stability risks, and the Kremlin who want to go down that route.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
121 Comments
That lithium discovery in the Himalayas will get India's attention too, for two reasons. the first is the potential of some being on their side for exploitation, but the second is whether it will lead to further Chinese border incursions as they seek to find and control more deposits.
This could get interesting.
Also strong was US industrial production in January, up in real terms by +4.1% and now above pre-pandemic levels.
Heightened Conflict Of Interest (rates): When GDP’s Almost All Inventory
US Industrial Production Jumps As 'Cold Winter' Sparks Biggest Jump In Utility Demand Ever
Yes, increasingly as Governments seek to maintain and even firm up their control, especially in "democratic" countries the music of the people who will not be slaves again is increasing in volume.
Readers should be reminded that our Government is undertaking a review of the structure of our 'democracy' which includes the length of the parliamentary term. Some questions for readers - considering the current Government's performance - would you be happy for their terms to be extended to four or five years? And secondly - should NZ become a republic separating from the Queen as the HoS?
The term of government should not be extended beyond three years without moving to a bicameral system. Checks and balances are needed. Arderns government is a prime example of one that outright lies at election time.
New Zealand becoming a republic will be used as a Trojan horse to embed Maori seperatism and Iwi control and fictional "treaty principles". This and renaming the country is the last thing we want.
I think Jacinda and co are turning into one of the most dangerous, arrogant, self centered governments ever. The polls are starting to turn, but they still have a lot of support, but the pain of financial mismanagement is only just starting. Throw in a potential war in Europe, then the min wage raise that they think will win them support will be a drop bucket to what people will need to try and put bread on the table.
That's because it doesn't matter how many properties or holiday homes you have, there is no escaping inflation.
The salary and wage earners are going backwards. Those with assets who are just trading one family home for another are mostly going backwards. There is no tangible progress on any major infrastructure projects, which are all bogged in the Wellington business case cycle. The credit tap that has financed economic activity in NZ underwritten by exploding house prices has been shut off. There's a real chance that people who haven't had pay rises in this Great Resignation phase may not find there's enough economic activity in their businesses to get one - for many, that will mean two years of real double-digit consumer inflation with no adjustment in pay.
Which is fine if you're a state sector head or senior civil servant deep into the six digit salary range, but the people paying for it are starting to ask if they are actually getting value for money.
FCM - your personal bias is as obvious as it has been long. Perhaps some dispassion?
This Government are as hamstrung as all are: trying to maintain 'economic growth' within a Bounded System. That is an impossible task.
Thus they are calling-in 3-waters, which is the last, too-late, throw of an obsolete ideology. One that your kind share with theirs. In reality, we will retreat as entropy bites; back to local maintenance, back to basics. And there will be triage.
But in response to Covid, this Government actually did well. Better than the Nats would have done. They actually reacted. Actually did something decisive. Only pressure (some from would-be returnees but much from those of your business-oriented persuasion) allowed the virus to arrive here, at all. Never forget that fact. Only a failing mandate forced then to strategise the way they have - a mandate emanating from a fairly ignorant, fairly self-serving populace. Even then, their tactical moves have been well-though-out, and have been explained.
But as far as addressing the future - a plague on both your houses.....
They're doing a terrible job at covid response now...maybe at the start but not now. Too many mixed messages. By the way, every NZ citizen has the right to come back to their country, you don't get to choose that right, you have the same rights as very other New Zealander.
Yeah but 3 year terms means 9 years in most cases (like the last 2 governments), so yes?
Big problem with 3 year terms, they are essentially 2 year terms as they spend the first 6 months settling in and the last 6 months electioneering. Which is why EVERYTHING in this country is done with a short term lens, why there's no long term planning for everything that matters and partly to blame for all of the crises we have.
A change in structure entirely. We need a government that focuses on the day to day running of the country and a separate entity that considers long term issues (retirement age, climate change etc)
One major problem we have is that Labour come in and implement their policies for the long term, then National get elected and scrap those policies and implement their own. Then Labour get elected...
Also another big issue is making changes that are required but unpopular never happen for fear of being booted out.
Great comment - as long as the long-term one has veto-rights on the short-term one.
One way would be to have representatives on behalf of every future generation, and one representative for this one. Equal voting rights. That would put things in perspective - compared to all the short term what's-in-it-for-me-now nonsense.
We've actually broken from this tradition where Labour get in and do sod all, then National get in and do stuff all, rinse and repeat.
We lack critical infrastructure planning capacity, we cannot build anything without decades of consultation and business cases and we are rapidly undermining working New Zealanders by allowing speculative asset prices drive huge costs of living increases for ordinary wage earners.
We are a stagnant Pacific backwater that can't shake our addiction to cheap imported labour and we won't pay Kiwis enough to be able to afford to live in their own country. A generation of self-interested scum has ruined this place for everyone - maybe they'll cotton on when they only see their grandkids once every five years.
And... (the left are turning into dictators)
A wise government would listen to them and respond politely, taking their complaints seriously and patiently explaining why covid restrictions, though onerous, are necessary for the time being.
Justin Trudeau has done the opposite. First, he refused to meet them. Then, seizing on the fact that a few of the protesters appear to be bigots, he attempted to put all of them outside the boundaries of reasonable debate by condemning “the anti-Semitism, Islamophobia, anti-Black racism, homophobia, and transphobia that we’ve seen on display in Ottawa over the past number of days”. The police already have ample powers to quell disorder. Yet on February 14th Mr Trudeau invoked emergency powers under a 34-year-old law that had never been used before. It would allow the government to declare protests illegal
Meanwhile, his Liberal government is mulling two worrying changes to Canada’s already illiberal hate-speech laws. One would allow Canada’s Human Rights Tribunal to impose large fines on those it deems to have used hateful language. The commission has in the past taken an expansive view of what counts as hateful, and defendants would enjoy fewer safeguards than they do under criminal law. The other proposed change would let individuals file legal complaints against people pre-emptively, if they fear that they may be about to say something hateful.
These are both terrible ideas. The Economist has long argued that free speech should be restricted only under exceptional circumstances, such as when the speaker intends to incite physical violence. Canada’s laws are already more restrictive than this, and the country’s illiberal left would like them to be still more so
Canada is not yet a rancorous or bitterly divided society. If Mr Trudeau wants to keep it that way, he should stop trying to police Canadians’ thoughts.
www.economist.com/leaders/2022/02/16/justin-trudeaus-crackdown-on-protests-could-make-things-worse
That would depend if you're Neale Jones...
https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018830443
Thank goodness Kathryn Ryan had the sense to slap him down.
I'm assuming that as a previous chief of staff to our PM he still advises her with the waffle he was spouting in the interview above.
Good grief, what has happened to the left? They've fast become right wing radicals and are so detached from reality that don't know it's happened.
Reminds me of this -
The failure of the left is a worldwide phenomenon, and is a big part of the rise of Trump etc.
Since when has the US ever had a 'left wing' government? The Democrats would be considered a right-wing (albeit centre-right) party in most first world, with the Republicans being hard-right. Likewise the UK with Blair etc.
Trumps rise is the result of capitalism crushing the working class. He sold them a promise that he'd make them prosperous again. Look at his appeal in the rust belt. Unfortunately prosperity is probably not coming back though given the issues the world faces with critical resources and populations demands (aka the point PDK has been making for over a decade now).
Blimey. A one eyed, one sided broadside about extremism, by an extremist. Quite plain this government has neither the acumen nor intelligence to be able to perceive bad advice. That explains the burgeoning numbers of advisors & consultants employed & surrounding them which obviously is nothing but a swamp of inefficiency and incompetence.
Protestors have been obstructing some main thoroughfares illegally and causing financial losses to businesses in those locations and requiring supplies that need to traverse those areas.
Holding on to the back accounts is clearly an over-step for the government, this sort of extra-judicial action is exactly what concerns thinking citizens.
Personally I am as concerned by the clear failure of law enforcement, the rule of law not being upheld is the more explosive failing to my thinking.
Suggest a complete failure by the government once again in perception, alertness and preparedness. The convoys converged over many days from north and south. Plenty of time to establish a perimeter around the obvious destination. Yes let protestors in but not vehicles and if necessary after a while, let them out but not new ones in, while keeping open a channel for food and other essentials. Again a government incapable of thinking about anything in advance and that can only react after the event. This time the failure is right there stark right outside of their gates. The whole world must be asking how come they couldn’t see it coming and then do something about it.
People enjoy the freedom of peaceful assembly and freedom of expression - well we do at the moment, it sounds like government want to review that now people have said a thing they don't agree with.
Now, personally, I think people should get vaccinated but then I also think people should vote and read books. However just because I implore people to do something doesn't mean I have any right to force it upon other people by depriving them of their livelihoods or preventing them from partaking in normal social activities.
Well we disagree Squishy, your freedom does not trump mine. People who do not wish to get vaccinated are pushing risk onto others. This is a simple core tenant of vaccinations. Why else do we bother trying to stop disease if the selfish want to avoid being part of society.
I am very comfortable with compulsory health orders, they are a long established, highly effective way of securing the right health outcomes, even for those less able to understand.
In some way every person or group of people within a society defines their own truth, establishes their own ethics, and chooses their own values, and none of those truths, ethics, or values are inherently any more true, ethical, or valuable than any others.
For example we tolerate people with different social, cultural or religious norms, values, beliefs etc. The idea that morality can be relativistic is foundational to pluralistic western societies. If we didn't our society would be riven by prejudice, stifled by conformity and segregated by our diversity.
This is where absolutism is creating a problem. Phrases like "team of five million" are divisive and have created a tyranny of the majority alienated minority views. As liberal societies have developed we have typically given people increasing legal latitude to express themselves over time. We no longer view questioning religious teachings as blasphemy or treat homosexuality as a crime for example. This is not limited by a 'do no harm to others' clause as we allow practices a broad range of practices from withholding education on evolution all the way to male circumcision. To abstain from judging others is a difficult but necessary step if we want to restore some sense of unity across society, and not one politics traditionally thrives at.
This is why, although I think people should get vaccinated, I'm happy to extend latitude to people who don't want to be vaccinated. Coercion represents an illiberal social regression in my view.
JAO - Squishy's freedom hasn't trumped yours, we're one of the most highly vaccinated populations on the planet.
The mandates have done their job (whatever view one might take of them).
For the umpteenth time, we can't vaccinate our way out of this, the virus doesn't care if you've got a green tick on your phone or not...
so are you saying that mandates are not needed or they are, pick one option :)
Roger - They're no longer needed.
They worked for the mass vaccination drive. They're not going to work for anyone who isn't now vaccinated are are causing more grief than they're worth.
Think about it, supermarkets open 14hrs/day, 7 days/week, punters galore wearing masks that have been proven to be approx 10% effective. You can go into a restaurant with a mask on, sit at a table eating/drinking/laughing with your green tick and somehow you're safe because an unvaccinated person can't enter the building.
Or do you think the green tick on your phone is going to stop you catching the virus?
Omicron/nature has turned up to do what humans couldn't.
Thank goodness for that.
As I am not a medical doctor who has studied 6-10 years to become an expert I will follow their advice. If they say they are still needed then I have no medical knowledge to refute that. You may be an expert but on an internet chat forum I will not be taking medical advice from anyone here.
Fair call.
I'm also not a medical expert.
But I reckon the chance of the mandates getting flagged is quite high because these protesters are causing the govt too much grief and they won't like that as it's currently harming their chance of getting re-elected.
So when they get removed you can take your medical advice from a bunch of career bureaucrats... :)
Only two explanations then. zEven though the Police are a government dept with a minister in cabinet, the government did not think to approach the police and say they had concerns of the situation in Ottawa, there were similar convoys in NZ heading to Parliament and we don’t want the same situation. How about setting up some cordons where required around parliament, as was excellently done say to seal off Auckland, and that way have control of what & who can actually approach parliament itself. Alternatively they did think to do that, but the police ignored them.
Prime Minister Shipley, and/or her department, made it very clear to the police where barriers were to be positioned in terms of distance and strength, to keep away protestors, for the visit to Christchurch of the then Chinese Premier. I know because I worked in an adjacent building and the police visited us well beforehand and informed us, like it or lump it, this was the government’s directive.
Well a government minister labelling the protestors as a river of filth is hardly likely to put them in an acquiescent mood is it. Highly inflammatory words, inciting reaction and intransigence. To the protestors it just confirms largely what they are protesting about. A dictatorial government, over regulating and over controlling and thinking it unnecessary, to listen to anyone else other than themselves. The thing is even if the government moves in under martial law, that as the authority will mean nothing. What will mean everything is ugly & graphic images, broadcast around the world, of New Zealanders fighting one another, hysterical and injured and shackled citizens. Our nation doesn’t want to be considered like for example Waco.
I agree that using insulting language is weak outside of a direct exchange with individuals.
At to the rest of you comment, what are the protestors protesting about? I see placards from a broad range of issues, some more tin-hat than others.
This is not that hard, you have been allowed to protest, you have now been trespassed and must leave, take your ticketed car with you. Have a nice day.
If NZ is earning an international reputation for anything it is weak law enforcement and governance.
It started off as one issue (Mandates) but misstep after misstep by the Govt is seeing it grow.
The protesters now represent every single person that has an issue with the current Government, be it
- Mandates
- Inflation
- Fuel prices
- Poverty
- Housing
- Protest response
- Government Overreach
- 3 waters
- Gangs/Crime
- Crippled Health System
- Government Transparency
- ...
That's the thing isn't it, they claim that they have not been engaged but a)who speaks for them and b)what positions do they have or solutions they wish for?
Unfortunately it is not hard to see them as a comfortable bunch of well intentioned people that have no where else to be.
Thinking about that too.,Martial law in NZ, unprecedented in modern history. As well there will be family on either side of any conflict. There would just have to be if you look at the cross section of society represented in the images of the protestors. Hard to imagine either police or soldiers will be easily persuaded, if they are ordered to manhandle relatives.
Exit from Afghanistan was very well organised. For a war that was lost.
Disorganised would have been dozens of aircraft rocketed out of the sky, with hundreds of deaths each time. And any plane that did get off would have had a trail of desperate GIs falling from it's wings.
The Soviet exit was a lot more orderly. Normally you would leave a government behind that could operate for more than five minutes.
Bombs and casualties at the airport for the American one. Biden did publicly say that the Afghan army was not in danger of collapse.
the Executive is more than one man - at least the Democrats aren't airing all their dirty nappies in public and appear to have a coherent strategy they all work towards.
Whether you like their strategy or not is beside the point, the last lot of Republicans were just plain useless. Bring back the Bush cabal - at least they were organised.
It might be 'resilient'. But a more reasonable take would be that it is utterly addicted to cheap munny, QE ad infinitum, and the revolving door of politicians, big biz and think tanks. It might just be a Potemkin Village......and when any of the above stop or run out of road.......
After holding the line that rates won't rise in Australia for a long time yet, most observers now expect the RBA to crumble soon.
Credibility used to be one of the pillars of central banking. That's why their words tend to hold so much weight. Both the RBNZ and RBA have lost a great deal of credibility these past few years by going back on forward guidance. That's one less tool in the toolbox for dealing with a recession.
China has discovered a very large lithium resource in their Himalaya mountain region.
That's good. Now all they need is a re-education camp built nearby and we can all drive around in Chinese EVs saving the planet guilt free.
"However, Chinese inflation is retreating... CPI was up just +0.9%... deflation threatens them?"
This is actually good news for China. While the world battles inflation and are forced to tighten, China has gained enormous room (relatively) to ease.
With the costly reset on Evergrande and the likes, it's reasonable to expect the CCP to loosen up other sectors to compensate for the slack.
That would only mean one thing, China will continue outperform the rest of the world and China bears will have to go back into hibernation.
Oil is up on average 10% in the last 30 days. I suspect Moscow will drag it out with EU and their counterparts.
🛢 $100/bbl 🛢 may well be within easy reach.
Not much choice with this statement from Germany:
MOSCOW, February 16. /TASS/. Any missile launch may be perceived as a potential nuclear strike amid persisting tensions, Deputy Secretary of Russia’s Security Council Mikhail Popov said in an interview with the Rossiyskaya Gazeta daily on Wednesday.
"Hardly anyone, except specialists, comes to realize that modern systems spot launches of missiles quite quickly but cannot identify whether these missiles carry nuclear weapons. That is why, any missile launch may be perceived as a nuclear strike amid the tense military and political situation," the security official cautioned.
Commenting on a statement by German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer that the West must be increasingly decisive in its deterrence of Russia, demonstrating its readiness to employ nuclear weapons, the deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council pointed out that it is "quite irresponsible" for an official of this level.
"Moreover, considering that Germany does not possess nuclear weapons, this statement can be viewed as a call on the United States to use its nuclear potential, including tactical nuclear charges deployed at forward bases in NATO countries," the security official said.
An official of this level must be aware that in the event of employing nuclear weapons, US facilities on Germany territory will be subjected to a retaliatory or a retaliatory counter strike, he pointed out.
"It would be interesting to hear an answer to the following question: In the event of a nuclear apocalypse, would the surviving electors forgive such short-sighted behavior by their country’s defense minister?" the security official said.
This may very well turn out to be another Cuban crisis but with the roles reversed for Russia.
However, unlike the Cuban crisis, Putin has the ability to turn off the gas for great parts of Europe.
The field may be unfair with traditional allied players outnumbering Moscow; however, the field is also levered tremendously to Putin's advantage.
And that advantage itself overwhelms the allied players on the other side.
No.
The French would rather the problem be gone than to destitute their economy.
No. The French have just announced a massive build of more nuclear, plus they've abandoned plans to decommission older existing plants.
That suggests they're anticipating an internal shortfall.
And gas-based infrastructure doesn't change to electric overnight. The German grid-morph, for instance, has 2050 as its target date (at which point a mere 35% of the E will be renewable.....).
Or they want to export electricity and have done the math on the electrification of transport.
Frankly, kicking off new fission stations that will take a decade to build seems unwise given the recent progress on Fusion. The jury will be in on that experiment in a decade and you don't want to be contractually obliged to build more if they are white elephants.
The French are no dummies, they are developing small modular reactors.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-12/france-to-build-smal…
They will be up and running while New Zealand is lowering living standards planting trees and trying to bottle cow farts.
Good comment. That's not the end, though - that's just: So far......
What they did was crank up the printing presses (ignorantly advised by economists who assert that all things are fungible). That flock of pidgies is just coming home to roost now. There was sub-100 trillion of global debt when oil did its blip; there is 300 trillion now. And ever-less remaining planet to assuage it - heck, they're going to mine the Himalayas; they're doing that because there are easier options left, perhaps? Ah, no.
Even the elite are in trouble if/when the accounting system crashes.
If that happens, the inflation will get worse as crude price will continue to go up and will create more pressure on food and energy price. Central banks might have excuses of uncertainty with war and omicron to delay the rates increase. But they can not ignore out of controlled inflation. I've been commenting and warning about inflation for almost two years after lock down happened and seen people saying that "nah, delta will change the situation, the economy will head into recession, inflation is just transitory and will be gone by 2022." But see where we are now. Recessions do happen, but it will happens in the next economy cycle which normally happens after a market crash.
1. Government's first response was to be dismissive and arrogant - which triggered and galavanised the convoy even more
2. Ignoring them makes them even more obstinate and paints the government as elitist
3. Not wanting to meet the protestors (admittedly they should have organised a spokesperson) or even entertaining the thought of meeting the protestors once they elect a representative comes across as weak. A PM should face the protestors, and show courage and stoicism.
4. Failure to see this as an organic grassroots movement (all the more confirmed by its chaotic, aimless and disparate membership) and dismissing it as "imported" also comes across as elitist and out of touch. Perfect breeding ground for a populist to rise up.. which can be nipped in the bud with decisive response and dialogue.
5. Letting it drag out this long makes the government look ineffective and lame.
6. Not using a minister or party leader as an interface with the protestors or even selecting someone from the opposition parties is a failure of leadership and political tactics.
By using a proxy, Arden would still maintain control over the situation, yet not be directly involved and still work towards a resolution, instead of letting it drag out. Then she and even the opposition party would come out on top. But now there's a potential that someone else will steal the political thunder and credit (if it ends well).
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.