US inflation expectations rise; China's coming lockdowns threaten global supply chains anew; India inflation up; equity market turmoil; UST 10yr 2.11%; gold and oil drop; NZ$1 = 67.9 USc; TWI-5 = 73.4

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight with news US benchmark interest rates have risen sharply today with the UST 10yr reaching a 10 month high. The USD rose sharply too. And tech stocks took fright. The re-rating ahead of Thursday's US Fed meeting is getting a sharper focus as global inflationary impacts do not seem to be easing.

American inflation expectations rose to 6.0% in February from 5.8% in January, back to its November 2021 record high. The increase was widespread across age, education, and income groups. The same survey revealed that year-ahead household spending growth expectations increased sharply to +6.4% from +5.5% in January, reaching a new series high (a data series that started in June 2013). This increase was also broad-based across age, income, and education groups.

Foreign direct investment into China is up a lot in February from a year ago, but the base was unusually low in 2021.

But trouble is brewing in China as new hard pandemic lockdowns seem likely to trigger ‘shock waves’ across global supply chains, both worse and broader than last time. Observers are saying that another major port lockdown there could have a ‘phenomenal’ impact on global supply chains still recovering from two years of pandemic-related setbacks. Strict virus-containment efforts by local governments will weigh on cargo movement inside and out of China, and raise shipping prices and delays. It will trigger a faster exit by firms who once relied on Chinese supply, even if it is a hard thing to do. All of this will accelerate global price inflation. Your new phone is going to cost a lot more.

Inside China, their housing market is retreating. Central bank data shows that outstanding medium- and long-term loans to the household sector, mostly mortgage loans, declined in February for the first time since records started. And this is happening despite a series of support measures from the government. Copper and iron ore prices are easing again on the expectations China's home building industry is going to stay depressed for some time.

India may have low growth rates (for them), but they certainly do have high inflation. Both their PPI and CPI were expected to ease a little in February from the very high January levels, but in fact they rose again. The changes were marginal, but the levels are high. Producer prices are now +13.1% higher than a year ago. Consumer prices are +6.1% higher on the same basis.

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The UST 10yr yield opens today at 2.11% and up +11 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today steeper at +29 bps. Their 1-5 curve is steeper too at +84 bps and their 30 day-10yr curve is steeper as well at +189 bps. The Australian ten year bond is up +12 bps at 2.48%. The China Govt ten year bond is -4 bps lower at 2.79%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is up +4 bps at just on 3.04% but clearly the UST impact is yet to be felt here.

Wall Street has greeted these bond market signals and re-rating relatively calmly, down just -0.6% on the S&P500 in Monday afternoon trade. Actually the Dow is up +0.2%, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down a sharpish -1.9%. Overnight, European bourses staged a sharpish recovery, up an average of about +2.0% although London only gained +0.6%. Yesterday, Tokyo led the way with a +0.6% rise, but Hong Kong crashed by -5.0% on concerns over Beijing’s close relationship with Russia and renewed regulatory risks that sparked panic selling. And Shanghai also had a bad day, down -2.6%. The ASX200 gained +1.2% while the NZX50 lost -0.1%.

We should also note that market sentiment was being moved somewhat by 'peace hopes' in Eastern Europe. But that may just be wishful thinking.

The price of gold starts today at US$1961/oz and down a sharp -US$30/oz from this time yesterday.

And oil prices are also very much lower today, down a sharp -US$7/bbl. In the US they are now just on US$100.50/bbl. The international price is just over US$104/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar will open today marginally softer at just over 67.9 USc. But against the Australian dollar we are now at 93.8 AUc which is almost a +½c firming since this time yesterday and our highest in two months. Against the euro we are soft at 61.8 euro cents. But against the Japanese yen we are are at a four month high. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 73.4 and marginally lower.

The bitcoin price is little-changed today, down just -0.1% from this time yesterday to US$38,927. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.3%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».