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US trucking demand falls despite good PMIs; Japan gets better data; China stumbles on pandemic spread; EU data and sentiment better; RBA seen raising rates soon; UST 10yr 2.80%; gold and oil down; NZ$1 = 66.1 USc; TWI-5 = 72.9

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US trucking demand falls despite good PMIs; Japan gets better data; China stumbles on pandemic spread; EU data and sentiment better; RBA seen raising rates soon; UST 10yr 2.80%; gold and oil down; NZ$1 = 66.1 USc; TWI-5 = 72.9

Here's our summary of key economic events over the long weekend that affect New Zealand with news financial and commodity markets have turned sharply fearful on concerns the economic expansion is waning. Risk aversion was gripping markets earlier today, and a lockdown crisis in Beijing isn't helping.

But first in the US, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index fell in March to its lowest in three months and February was revised lower. It was still recording an expansion, just a weaker one.

The more current Dallas Fed factory survey for April retreated to its lowest reading since October. Again, still expanding, but the track is weaker.

This overall pullback is being reflected in trucking demand stats, which are turning lower and quite sharply.

But April PMI data has actually been good. The US factory sector is expanding faster, even as those concerns about the future build. Their manufacturing PMIs came in at their strongest in 7 months due to faster rises in output, new orders and employment. A rise in export orders is coming too. Inflationary pressures remained high but firms are managing to pass on all of that effect to customers. But all this isn't really improving sentiment as inflation and geopolitical uncertainty make it hard to be optimistic even if the present situation is improving. Those sentiment concerns weigh heavier on their services sector, but that too is expanding well still.

Canadian retail sales were expected to slip in February, but they rose in data released overnight, even if only marginally. They would have risen much more except vehicle sales were weak there.

Canadian producer prices rose very sharply in March, now running higher than +18% pa. In fact that is their fastest pace in almost 50 years.

Japan finally seems to be getting some [minor] inflation. Consumer prices rose by +1.2% in March, the most since October 2018, after a +0.9% gain a month earlier. The latest figure marked the 7th straight month of annual inflation, with food prices rising at the fastest pace in over 5 years at +3.4%.

And the flash April PMI for Japan brought signs their economy is expanding this month. The latest data showed that Japanese private sector activity improved at a sharper rate. Services companies recorded an expansion in activity for the first time since last December, while manufacturers saw output levels rise for the second successive month. April data signaled the sharpest expansion in four months, though the pace of growth was only marginal, to be fair, mainly because new order levels weren't growing. But it is better than a contraction.

In China, there are now realistic fears that Beijing will need to be locked down just like Shanghai has been. This is having strong echoes in financial markets with equities falling very hard yesterday. The Chinese currency, already under pressure, took another tumble and their central bank took some measures to ease the pressure, although it is unclear they had any real impact.

Copper prices have retreated sharply today as growth fears build for China.

Meanwhile, Taiwanese industrial production expanded in March but the year-on-year gain was more modest this time. But retail sales, which has been barely growing for some time, exhibited a much stronger rise in March.

Singapore is getting inflation like everywhere else. They booked a +5.4% annual rise in March, well above the expected level and well above the 4.3% they recorded in February. The month-on-month rise in March was very sharp indeed.

In Germany, there has been surprise data released overnight (a surprise to me at least). Their latest business sentiment survey turned higher as companies were less pessimistic after the initial shock of the war in Ukraine. Both current conditions and expectations improved. This survey happened before the French election result was known.

And that positive French election result should help overall EU sentiment.

PMI surveys show EU growth is accelerating in April as reviving services demand offsets a near stalling in their manufacturing sector. But prices are rising at record rates. In Germany, a drop in manufacturing production contrasts with continued service sector growth. But in France, business activity is rising at its fastest pace in more than three years. The UK however is still recording an expansion, but at lower levels. British retail sales were particularly weak in March, recording a decline.

And we should note that global sales of new electric vehicles doubled to 4.6 mln units in 2021 to overtake hybrid cars for the first time, new data shows, boosted by strong demand in China and Europe. The key has been government subsidies'; that is, consumers responded when the taxpayer fronted for some/much of the actual cost.

In Australia, Westpac's respected economist Bill Evans has noted that 'underlying' inflation will rise to 3.4% when the March data is released next week, and their jobless rate will fall below 4% in April, and "on the basis of those forecasts we expect the RBA will decide to lift the cash rate by 40 basis points at its Board meeting on June 7" to 0.5%.

Australia's businesses are still expanding at healthy levels. Their private sector recorded a third straight month of growth, according to flash PMI data. Both output and demand expanded at strong rates in April, leading to the continued expansion of workforce capacity. Supply constraints persisted, however, contributing to record input cost inflation while backlogged work also rose solidly.

And we should also note that prices for corn have hit their highest price in a decade, and could easily surge to a new all-time record soon. This will exacerbate the world food crisis.

The UST 10yr yield starts today lower by -10 bps bps at 2.80% and taking it back to pre-Easter levels. The UST 2-10 rate curve is a little steeper at +22 bps. But their 1-5 curve is flatter at +82 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is also flatter at +240 bps. The Australian ten year bond is now at 3.04% and down -7 bps. The China Govt ten year bond is down a sharp -6 bps at 2.83%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year unchanged at 3.60% and holding last week's rise so far.

On Wall Street, the S&P500 was down -1.0% in early Monday trade but it has since recovered. Overnight, there was even more red ink in all European markets with all markets down -2% except Frankfurt which was down -1.5%. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Monday session down another sharp -1.9%. Hong Kong was down -3.7% in a disastrous selloff. Shanghai started the week even worse, down -5.1% in their Monday session. Of course neither Australia or New Zealand were trading because of the ANZAC Day holiday. They will open in light of these fearful conditions.

The price of gold starts today down -US$35 since this time Saturday at US$1898/oz. That is a large -US$80 drop in a week or -4% down.

And oil prices are -US$4.50 lower at just under US$97/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$100.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar will open today a little softer at 66.1 USc and still about its lowest since mid-February. Against the Australian dollar we are +½c firmer at 92.2 AUc. And against the euro we are firmer too at 61.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 72.9 and little-changed since where we left it Saturday.

The bitcoin price is virtually unchanged from this time yesterday at US$39,400. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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89 Comments

Lock down in Shanghai, now Beijing. China and Hong Kong stocks hammered. Messy, CCP governance is questionable.

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8

Gold not really behaving as a store of value lately? At least should be keeping up with inflation I would have thought. 

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Gold price is highly manipulated, when possible.

It was a good store of value 10k years ago, it will still be a good store of value in 10k years from now.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_price_in_USD.png

 

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Gold not really behaving as a store of value lately? At least should be keeping up with inflation I would have thought. 

Gold does not track the CPI. So last 2 years up approx 36% (USD terms). Last 3 years, up 50%. 

It's doing something. 

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1

Sounds impressive but if not factoring in inflation more like 10% at a stretch and very hard to offload without a good clip

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Sounds impressive but if not factoring in inflation more like 10% at a stretch and very hard to offload with a good clip

Not sure what that means. Are you suggesting that gold needs to appreciate in price by 20-30% pa for the hoi polloi to own it? What's your benchmark? 

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1

"The return of gold as an investment reached almost 25 percent in 2020, and the annual average price of gold increased overall since 2015. The rate of return, however, dropped and was negative at 4.3 percent at the end of 2021."

So my benchmark would be a positive return I guess in the current climate -(I hold very a very small amount)

 

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OK. NZ houses doing much better than gold. 

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1

Parrot dog shares performing better than Gold and the AGM is always a great time to taste the new offerings.

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Musk bought Twitter. Part of me wants to believe that he genuinely strives to turn back the tide of Chinese-level censorship which has been taking place on social media these past few years, but the rest of me acknowledges that it's probably just about money and ego.

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Well I wish I had brought Tesla shares a few years back...the man is very smart and never gives up...just look at Space X.

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I agree and he was growing tired of the lack of free speech.

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7

While i get the lack of free speech bit I have a concern that many don't realise that rights only come with responsibilities. Speech of any kind comes with consequences. Any many who lament the lack of free speech are those who promote hatred based on difference and support violence directly or indirectly from that hatred. True debate doesn't often occur, and those who promote hatred cannot stand up to scrutiny and shout down and bully dissenters.

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I suggest you stop listening to Willie Jackson & Nanaia Mahuta

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19

Wholeheartedly disagree. "Free speech" does imply some degree of freedom from the consequences of that speech. Otherwise you could argue that North Korea is a bastion of free speech - the people are of course free to say whatever they want, it's just that they and their family might end up in a gulag for the rest of their lives as a consequence.

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Lots of examples where "free speech" is restricted.

(1) Shouting fire in a crowded theatre when there is not one to cause panic.

(2) Shouting the N word at players at a sports game.

(3) Conspiring to commit a murder.

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3

Poor examples. 

1. You can report fire hazards - it is the shouting that matters not the message but how it is delivered.

2. It happened to my son in a rugby game 10 years ago. He retaliated by throwing a punch and was sent off. The remaining 14 tackled with extra enthusiasm.  That word did not hurt him but his lack of control did not help his team.  Why has the N***** word replaced the F*** word?  Does society require arbitrary taboo words?  Maybe making it illegal at sports games will keep it entrenched but prevent some other word becoming taboo. For me using the N***** word says something about the person using it but nothing about my son. Keep it legal.

3.Surely conspiring to commit a murder is restricted equally whether by public speaking or private writing. 

What is significant is context and location. So a popular film starts with Hugh Grant repeating the F*** word 32 times with no complaint but anyone using it deliberately within earshot of my granddaughter's school is liable to be arrested for disturbing the peace, not for the specific word.  The most extreme example is carrying the national flag can get you arrested if you are going to a Glasgow Rangers Celtic match. The police interpret the union flag not as an emblem of the nation but as a deliberate attempt to start a fight in a public place.

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No functioning society allows people to act in anyway they please without consequence, this also translates into free speech. The concept implies rational, intelligent actors, but far too many demonstrate a marked lack of rationality, and intelligence. There are also some who are demonstrably intelligent, but lack rationality. Equally it seems the thing most fear is difference. Our history demonstrates that as human beings we are perfectly willing to enslave, rape, murder, torture people who are nothing more than just different from us. The difference maybe ethnicity, culture, language, physical, behavioural, religion, or politics, or even just imagined. As a society we are becoming increasingly conditioned to avoid conflict, and so those who choose to act, to voice hatred, and judgement of others just because they are different often are not challenged for their views, but do find supporters who are equally not challenged. Thus the noise gains traction and volume and eventually someone or a group acts on it. History is rife with examples.  So no, free speech doesn't come without consequences, and therefore responsibilities. Those consequences affect our societies, and potentially ourselves individually, so those spouting hate MUST be held to account for it.  

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So who decides who is rational Galileo or the church elders?

It is not the spouting of hate that should be illegal. It is the encouragement to violence that is wrong and should be illegal.  Hate is a perfectly reasonable emotion - expressing hatred of bigots is rational; hating those who instigated the war in Ukraine is reasonable. I often express my hatred of certain vegetables and that might offend farmers but it doesn't harm them.  As soon as my anti-spinach rant changes to a 'lets go and kill the growers' then stop me but not before.

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Interesting question and i think one societies have pondered on for centuries. Galileo is an apt choice for an example. But I suggest that democracy, and rule of law including an independent judiciary are vital components, as is a free and independent press. Curiously in this day and age, these three things seem to be under threat, so it comes back to the people expressing their views, especially in an election. There are ample current examples around the world of all these aspects at the moment.

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I believe our current law is about right.  Carefully selected judges make that judgement of intent. They judge the likelihood of harm and was the aim to cause harm.  That solves the problem.  Passing laws that make causing offence illegal is crazy. Passing laws against expressing hate is also crazy. Crazy meaning impossible to define, probably counterproductive and too easy to sidestep.

It is very easy for someone like myself, an elderly male who has had a peaceful middle-class life, to tell persecuted people to 'toughen up' and that 'sticks and stones may break your bones but words can never hurt you'.  But that is the basic first step.  Then appropriate use of safety content warnings and even separate safe places (eg women only rooms) is great.  But when it means people such as Germaine Greer can be 'no-platformed' at a university debate then something is seriously wrong. University is not compulsory, neither are public debates at a university so if offended by the very idea of seeing Ms Greer just don't turn up (my attitude to any Kardashian) but allow others to use their own judgement.

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“Free speech is the bedrock of a functioning democracy, and Twitter is the digital town square where matters vital to the future of humanity are debated,” Elon Musk said.

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Town squares are owned by the public not commercial interests. When public spaces are privatised and taken over by commercial interests, free speech is always secondary to the owner's private interests.

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Agree.  Twitter uses algos to push a lot of views, has allowed a number of bots and fake accounts.  I like reading or debating two sides of a scenario and am pleased that Elon feels the same.

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When there's more than one speaker the town square is owned by the loudest. Democracy is then owned by the loudest speaker.

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Elon is a twat and I'm just glad I never used Twitter and never intend to use Twatter. Surely it would cost a whole lot less to just start your own platform, I mean its not like you don't already have several to choose from.

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Starting your own...  How's that worked out for the challengers to Trademe? 

 

First mover advantage is huge. 

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6

"Elon is a twat"...better add these to your list to avoid as well Carlos

Tesla, SpaceX, OpenAI, Neuralink, the Boring Company and Starlink.

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SolarCity, PayPal

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He is a twat with an ecological footprint that is only matched by his ego

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Tesla has produced more than 1.91 million vehicles since 2009 therefore avoiding 8,760,000 metric tons of CO2 per annum.

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He is a twat with an ecological footprint that is only matched by his ego

Agree, but he's also spending his billions on creating new cool stuff, not just buying out tech companies. Henry Ford was also a reasonably despicable man but he did some cool stuff too.

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This is about protecting his own free speech, not anybody else's and making sure he own the platform where that speech is given.  

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Watch your wallet when billionaires talk about free speech.

 

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In Germany, there has been surprise data released overnight (a surprise to me at least). Their latest business sentiment survey turned higher as companies were less pessimistic after the initial shock of the war in Ukraine. Both current conditions and expectations improved. This survey happened before the French.

Emphasis of war against Russia has changed.

Viewed from another angle, now that Europe is not contemplating an oil / gas embargo against Russia, Washington is no longer under pressure to lift the sanctions against Iran’s energy exports. And at any rate, the US will be mindful of the possibility that Iran may provide a lifeline to Russia to beat Western sanctions. 

Meanwhile, Biden administration’s priority is also shifting away from economic sanctions against Russia to “finally breaking the back of Russia’s ability to project power outside of Russia to threaten Georgia, to threaten Moldova, to threaten our Baltic allies” — to borrow the words of former US Army Europe Commander Ben Hodges from a recent interview. 

Austin has called at short notice a meeting tomorrow at the American base in Germany with counterparts from allied countries to discuss the scope for vastly increased military supplies to Ukraine on a long-term basis. Biden’s call to Bennett just prior to that meeting suggests that the US may have persuaded Israel to be an active participant in the war in Ukraine, which would “bleed” Russia “white.”  Link

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1

Germany has correctly assessed that the moral hazard of supporting Russia does not out-weigh the inconvenience of putting another blanket on the bed.  I am bemused that the otherwise woke MSM are letting this slide but perhaps this would distract from the green washing which is on "spin" at the moment.

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Never let the truth get in the way of a good conspiracy.

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If you want to gate-keep who gets to contribute to a discussion you will need to be more than being this generation's Chicken-little ("conspiracy merchants, conspiracy merchants!!!)

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1

lol thanks, nice to start the week with a smile.  You missed my point but in leaping to the defence of the 4th estate you have proved my point.

None of those articles are reporting on Germany's choice as a bad one, in fact some are sympathetic (BBC), some are not even related to my point (the Sun!).

Still if it does not bother you that is fine (or you missed my point).

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0

Maybe the issue is you can't actually read? From one of the articles I just posted:

"But not all. The self-serving cowardice of Chancellor Olaf Scholz shames his nation.

He talks a good game, but behind the scenes blocks Ukraine from getting the heavy weapons it needs.

Scholz refuses to axe German gas supplies from Russia, claiming not only that it would threaten EU jobs but, bizarrely, that bankrupting Moscow would NOT help end the war.

He apparently prefers to risk Putin winning than suffer any economic damage himself."

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1

Time to open up borders without testing, at least with Australia.

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10

Thanks goodness for all those EV's and sheep farms planted out in pines. It is almost like intermittent energy isn't as cheap as people like to believe.

"In 2021, the world generated more electricity from coal than ever before, with an increase of 9% from the previous year, according to the International Energy Agency. For 2022, total coal consumption — for generating power, making steel and other industrial uses — is expected to rise by almost 2% to a record of just above 8 billion metric tons and remain there through at least 2024."

US coal tops $100/ton for first time in 13 years.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-25/coal-prices-soar-as-…

 

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3

Not only are we using 1.1 million tonnes of coal a year, we are also importing it from Indonesia so add shipping emissions on top of that.

While the Austrians have made more from the gas fields through technological improvements, they are looking to off-load the fields asap given the governments retrospective legislation that means the clean up costs make the fields expensive to own.  "Looking to invest in Gas field development in NZ?" "ohh my aching sides".

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0

Oh heven forbid the poor oil companies should have to clean up their own mess instead of leaving it to the taxpayer

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1

The poor old taxpayer, don't make them responsible for the benefits they have accrued, we are an accountability free society after all (unless you are foolish enough to start a business).

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0

And I see that our Minister of Revenue is talking about fairness in the tax system.

Maybe they could bring forward the date by which EV cars will start paying RUC.

https://www.nzta.govt.nz/vehicles/road-user-charges/ruc-exemptions/

"Electric vehicles are exempt from RUC if their motive power is derived wholly or partly from an external source of electricity."

Lets not look too deeply into what was used to generate the electricity.

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4

I might be missing something however "partly from an external source of electricity" raises the question of how to charge RUCs for hybrids. The petrol part paid by these vehicles is as current however I don't see how they will differentiate mileage for the electricity RUC.

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0

Thats one reason we will probably all be on RUCs not too far in the future.  Annoying as it will be if they don't sort out the administration of it to automate it.

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0

I always chuckle whenever some petrolhead trots this out, the exemption already has an expiry date not that far away, and the number of EVs on the road is still pretty insignificant.    Personally I can't wait till the put RUCs on all road using vehicles, and a proper carbon tax on those liquid hydrocarbons.

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1

I was possibly being too subtle.

I find it ironic that the minister is digging into the fairness of our tax system, yet here is just one small example of blatant inequality in terms of those that can afford to buy an EV getting a free ride on their obligation to help fund the maintenance of the roads they are using, and those stuck with aging petrol cars that are in fact paying for road maintenance. But I guess if the exemption has an expiry date not that far away (it's actually close to 2 years still), then that's fair then?

 

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You do not understand inequality if this is the example you give. 

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1

So once again the family with access to capital can leverage further off that by benefiting from subsidized use of our roads yet the family weighed down by some car finance outfit that have no chance of getting into an EV and can't possibly access the same subsidised driving isn't an example of inequality? In this case from some government policy which doesn't seem to be achieving much if there aren't that many EVs on the road. We've been driving a 1.5L hybrid hatch for the last year. Which has been a godsend given fuel prices. I have no idea how those forced to live long drives from their workplaces are coping these days.

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0

Oh no, a minor incentive to help people improve their lives, and those of the people that no longer have to suck down lung fulls of particulates from another shitty modified diesel ute with no catalyst and a drainpipe for an exhaust.

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'and the number of EVs on the road is still pretty insignificant'.

There's probably only an insignificant number of shitty diesel utes out there too so probably evenly balanced.

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Lol, you need to open your eyes if you believe that. 

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Why? Are we not trying to transition more people over to EV's so we can lessen our dependence on imported Fossil Fuels? Also if there were numbers of EV trucks rolling around chewing up the road fair enough..don't see them yet, so whats the issue? Let me guess we burn coal to make electricty....

 

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0

Australian minister of defence Peter Dutton compares China to 1930s Germany. 

https://youtu.be/tLBjxi7GrQg

It's probably worth turning our mind to how things might pan out in NZ.

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5

“Working together with our partners in New Zealand and of course the United States, I share the same red line that the United States has when it comes to these issues,” Morrison said. “We won’t be having Chinese military naval bases in our region on our doorstep.” Link

Australia is totally freaking out with the POSSIBILITY of a Chinese navy base in the Solomon Islands which is "just" 2000km from Australia. Meanwhile, the US has nearly 200 military bases in Japan & South Korea, which are "more than" 300km from China. Nearly half of US overseas  Link

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2

Is New Zealand speaking from a position of strength?

Some observers also noticed an interesting part in Morrison's remarks. He wanted to be tough to China, but deliberately mentioned the US to support its stance, which mirrors how much nerve Australia actually has. Western countries like to say "speak from a position of strength." Without enough strength, a country is not qualified to draw red lines for others, Yu Lei, chief research fellow at the Research Center for Pacific Island Countries of Liaocheng University, told the Global Times

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2

Is there a word for people who have a kneejerk 'BUT THE US DOES THIS' reaction to literally every single thing, no matter the topic? 

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4

Usdoeses?

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1

Reductio Ad Yankium? 

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Is it better not to know?  Who makes these decisions, you? 

Audaxes is simply putting these embarrassing facts into the discussion, try not to get triggered, do we need a "safe space" button?

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4

I would have thought someone with the username 'JustAnOpinion' wouldn't wet themselves over someone calling out a repetitive, tired and irrelevant argument for what it is, but like most people who like to invoke 'are you triggered' or something about 'safe spaces', you can't accept an argument being held to an actual measurable standard and get all pissy about it instead. 

Just because you have an opinion doesn't make it any more valid or less garbage, no matter how personally attached you are to it! But hey, that's just MY opinion!

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What argument were you making?  That Audaxes presents facts you don't like?

"Actual measurable standard" did I miss the point were you added some value by providing some contra data?  No I didn't think so.

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Wow guess me pointing out his tired talking point about USA BAD adding very little really rubbed you up the wrong way. 

If your go-to response is to blather on about people being 'triggered' and 'safe spaces' in 2022 like it makes you an internet bigshot, then you're the one who needs the safe space, buddy, not me. I'm quite capable of being out after dark on my own, and won't get too wound up if someone tells me my argument sucks and is boring as hell when I spam it all over the place. 

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Things will be just fine as NZ is a “soft power” according to this latest woke piece in Stuff.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300570752/the-importanc…

 We will fight them with kindness. 

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Haha, soft power - what an oxymoron!

China is Asia's leading soft power. I liked Stuff more back when it was under foreign ownership and wasn't all about woke Wellingtonian propaganda.

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Read the article.  Have no idea how you both are using the term "woke". Care to explain what you mean by it? 

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when advocating for ones self is taken as an attack, usually by the truely woke.  a conservative meme. a strawman on which to prostrate oneself.

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Thanks makes complete sense now :) 

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I agree.  I haven't been on Stuff for well over a year now - way too woke.

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2

What else do we have? Kiwifruit?

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You mean Chinese gooseberries?

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6

Probably a good analogy is the situation where Chinese kiwifruit growers have stolen our intellectual property and now have more hectares of gold kiwifruit than we do. The unpaid licence fees amount to billions of dollars. As the little guy we have effectively just rolled over. Now I am sure if it was the other way around....

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3

"Despite the name, kiwifruit are not native to New Zealand. Seeds were brought to New Zealand in 1904 by Mary Isabel Fraser, the principal of Wanganui Girls’ College, who had been visiting mission schools in China. "

https://nzhistory.govt.nz/the-chinese-gooseberry-becomes-the-kiwifruit#….

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2

Beanie was referring to gold kiwifruit

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3

didn't someone here in the sixties rebrand the humble tree tomato as 'tamarillos' ?

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0

Just don't tell the Brazilian's we nicked their Feijos..

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Oh yes, that makes the difference, so we can take their seeds but when they take ours it's just not ok?

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The Chinese gooseberry seeds brought to NZ were used to make the kiwifruit, which is significantly different to the original,. Plus, the gold kiwifruit IP is New Zealand's. It's like saying there is no IP rights inherent in discovering new apple varieties.

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3

Should the first person to use the word 'love' in a pop song should have IP to prevent its use in other songs.  

Should it be legal to copy a song word for word and avoid copyright infringement by changing the spelling of a single word? 

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No the Chinese gooseberry is the Kiwifruit, Kiwifruit is just a marketing name for it. (read the link).

The Sun Gold version is a modification of the original, I am not saying there are no IP rights but I am saying that we did not pay for the original IP that still makes up the majority of the fruit.  Therefore it is somewhat hypocritical to suggest that the Chinese are bad for stealing our fruit when we did the same to them.

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IP on the original fruit? You need to explain that to me.

There are lots of patents that are an iteration of an existing product. They have an expiry date, just like the gold kiwifruit patent will expire in a decade or so.

The point I originally made was that $billions of licence fees (currently over 500k per ha x approx 6000 ha) have not been paid and we have no chance of getting it. I would suggest that is because we are small and China is big. If we stole billions off a Chinese company there would be hell to pay. 

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Late news: washed up on Jimmy Armers Beach, is a wet A4 page with a 'Rejected' stamp, text crumpled but some still legible despite the best efforts of the sea lice.

It appears to be a draft press release destined for the Budget.  A hand scrawled note at the foot has only four discernible words: 'too', 'truth', 'shred', 'release'.

The single sentence which can be read in its entirety is:

"We plan to borrow mad stacks to secure  Election '23."

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I believe it was found next to a plastic Buzz Lightyear toy, the weary batteries good for just a few more slurred exclamations.

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...there are now realistic fears that Beijing will need to be locked down just like Shanghai has been.

Guangzhou is also under review apparently. Given the absolute farce that they're running in Shanghai I hope people have done a months worth of shopping.

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