Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news tomorrow will be as good as today, and it will stay like that for a while. But more international data is softening.
US mortgage applications decreased yet again last week and that was even though mortgage interest rates slipped a bit.
But last week's survey of retail activity remained strong, expanding faster than the prior week and holding on to the momentum they have had since mid 2021.
There were two PMI reports out for the US factory sector overnight and both are recording a continuing healthy expansion. The widely watched local ISM one reported a faster expansion, while the internationally-benchmarked Markit one recorded a slower expansion.
They are backed up by the Fed's month Beige Book surveys which also record modest to moderate growth in almost all their regions, but with hints of slowing conditions.
Also confirming the continuing expansion are the American JOLTS data for April. The number of job openings in the US was 11.4 mln at the end of the month, down from a revised record high of 11.9 mln in March, matching market expectations and suggesting firms continued to struggle to find and hire new workers.
For all this positive data, it is probably worth noting the Jamie Dimon, the boss at JPMorgan, fears a "hurricane" is coming for the US economy but not until consumers use up more of their savings that are backing up current consumption levels. Within a year, he thinks.
For the third consecutive time, the Bank of Canada raised its official cash rate, this time by another +50 bps to 1.5%, matching market expectations, and signaled that it will hike interest rates further in the coming meeting to curb rising inflation. It is also explicitly tightening monetary conditions and says it is ready to act "more forcefully".
Beijing has ordered state-owned policy banks to set up an ¥800 bln (NZ$185 bln) line of credit for infrastructure projects as it leans on construction to stimulate an economy battered by coronavirus lockdowns.
Meanwhile, Shanghai is waking up to many lockdown conditions that are being eased or released. There are still widespread restrictions but people are now allowed out, and businesses will now start to re-open. This release will give an initial boost in activity and demand, but after that things remain quite uncertain.
But just as Shanghai gets its release, there are signs that Hong Kong may have to be put back into a strict lockdown again. They have the same problem - low vaccination rates especially for older residents, which risks overwhelming their health system capacity. And Hong Kong may not be the only other large Chinese city to face renewed lockdowns.
In Japan, on leading tractor maker is pressing ahead with units powered by fuel cells, offering much better power than electric alternatives.
With inflation pressing them hard, Germans are cutting back on their retail spending, and quite hard. The latest data is for April and retail sales fell more than -5% from March on an equivalent inflation adjusted basis. Year on year they are down -0.4% on the same basis (up more than +6% on a nominal basis).
Russia is reporting that both industrial production and retail sales fell, not only from March levels, but by much more than they expected. Their car industry is the hardest hit.
In Australia, there were two factory PMI reports out for May yesterday, (here and here) both reporting a slowing of their good expansion back to a more modest expansion.
Australia also reported its Q1-2022 economic growth rate yesterday and it came in at +3.3% pa which was better than the +2.9% expected, but a step back from the Q4-2021 rate of +4.2%. Australia's economy reported AU$2.2 tln in annual economic activity in the year to March 2022 in nominal terms, up +12% from the same year in 2021, which in turn actually fell -1% in the same year from 2020. From the pre-pandemic equivalent 2019 year, this 2022 result is now +16% higher in nominal terms. New Zealand doesn't release its Q1-2022 GDP result until June 16, 2022.
One thing analysts have picked up on in this GDP result is that Aussie wages and consumption were tracking higher than other separate measures suggested. And that probably means the RBA is locking in a substantial +40 bps rate hike next Tuesday.
Globally, factory activity fell again in May, led by the drop-off in China. Overall, new order inflows remain lackluster, inflationary pressures stay elevated, and international trade volumes are declining. Luckily for us, we are not yet being impacted by the trade or new order weights many others are, who have high exposure to China.
And we should note that the Bank of International Settlements has appointed its first Chinese national to join their senior management team in its 92-year history
The UST 10yr yield will start today up another chunky +9 bps at 2.94% on the strong US data. The UST 2-10 rate curve is marginally flatter at +28 bps and their 1-5 curve is steeper at +83 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is also steeper at +220 bps. The Australian ten year bond is now at 3.49% and up another big +12 bps. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.81%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today up +1 bp at 3.61%.
Wall Street is lower today with the S&P500 down -0.5% in late Wednesday trade. Overnight European markets fell by between -0.3% (Frankfurt) and a full -1.0% (London). Yesterday Tokyo ended with a +0.7% rise. Hong Kong was fell -0.6%. Shanghai was down a minor -0.1%. The ASX200 ended its Wednesday session up +0.3% while the NZX50 rose +0.6% in its session.
The price of gold is up +US$1 today at US$1846/oz.
And oil prices are marginally firmer from this time yesterday, up +50 USc to just on US$114.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is unchanged at US$116.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today down another -¼c at 64.9 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are down at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are a little firmer at 60.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today little-changed at 71.9 because we rose against both the yen and the English pound.
The bitcoin price has fallen -5.6% since this time yesterday and is now at US$30,182. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.8%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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75 Comments
Very rich actor sues ex wife for 25x more money than she actually has because she may have damaged his flagging career.
No-one was covered in glory by this. Depp did worse to his reputation through the court action than his ex did through her ghost-written editorial
... she wrecked his career by her veiled accusations against him ... clearly they're both dysfunctional in a relationship ... but , he's back on track to resume acting ...
Her defamatory comments were made out of spite , it transpires ... not out of fact ...
... Captain Jack Sparrow sails away unsullied & richer ...
... in all fairness to Depp , it was his ex lawyer who made that comment about Heards comments being a hoax ... Johnny has to pick up the tab for that blunder ...
I wonder how Disney are feeling now ... having torn up Depps contract immediately after Heard made her false accusations against him ...
I've read an analysis of that claim of his - his last few headliners have been flops, the only ones that have succeeded lately have been ensemble casts, and he's got a terrible reputation for delaying production through his antics. So he was already on the way down before the op-ed through his own brand already being tarnished.
....consequences yet to hit....if yet to hit, what is it that has hit us now and hammering.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/06/brad-olsen-says-a-recessio…
Hoping recession to be short and sharp.....Seems will be sharp but not sure about short as the process of reining the inflation has just started.
Next Big question, how big will be the house price fall....from all data and commentarty it is certain, it will be between 20% to 30% for sure with possibility of more (Already is between 10% to 15% and as headline suggests that consequences yet to hit )
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/300603013/take-fiv…
I agree, I hope the recession is short but I think finding our balance in house pricing will take some time. There is a long way to fall and I hope this can happen quickly with big monthly falls so a new price level can start to appear. The longer this takes the more people have to wait to start on other things, the more stress they will carry in this already pressured season.
I also hope that those that have got themselves in trouble over the last 24 months will get government support. These Aussie banks should be MADE to give relief to the most exposed, forgiving debt (that they just created from nothing anyway) in the order of 30-40%. Otherwise we are going to break those people and it is not a small number ~150k, we are not big enough to ignore this.
We've run our economy on population growth without growing economic capacity, which means we heavily added to aggregate demand of everything without increasing supply. So we imported more stuff to meet aggregate demand for tradeables and started a lolly scramble for non-tradeables funded with borrowings (foreign capital inflows).
It won't be anything but a bumpy ride downwards while the both the cost of imports and debt rises dramatically, contributing to the worst current account deficit in our economic history.
Were we to do that, it'd be ideal to take a fair and even-handed approach to those affected, e.g. per the Aussie New Liberals' proposal:
The monetary reset would:
- Give every Australian adult an identical sum of government-created money;
- Require those who had debt to use that money to pay down their debt;
- Sell Treasury Bonds to banks, precisely as is currently done in deficit financing; and
- Require those with less debt than the amount issued to purchase Treasury Bonds from banks, from which they will earn interest income;
This would not create any additional money and put inflationary pressure on the economy, but rather, it would change the asset backing the money from private debt, to reserves and government bonds. Source
Wouldn't bail out speculators unnecessarily, as our approaches to date have, and it wouldn't omit non-asset-owners.
Economists expecting things to return to normal very soon from China's reopening are overestimating the capacity at destination ports to unload the huge volumes of backlogged cargo they are about to receive from China.
So goods (and logistical services) inflation is here to stay, in fact could probably worsen over the next few months.
"Russia is reporting that both industrial production and retail sales fell, not only from March levels, but by much more than they expected. Their car industry is the hardest hit." What did they expect I wonder?
I note on CNN the US is to provide Ukraine is to be supplied with advanced artillery rocket systems, but they are not to be aimed at targets in Russia. So Russia can attack the Ukraine from a sanctuary, but Ukraine cannot defend itself properly? It seems the US isn't yet convinced it shouldn't throw Ukraine under the bus, but is still procrastinating.
"Biden has said the United States will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach into Russia. That’s reasonable," Medvedev said on his Telegram channel on Monday.
"Otherwise, in case of strikes against our cities Russia’s armed forces would act on the warning to attack the centers where such criminal decisions are made. Some of them are certainly not in Kiev. No explanations necessary…" Medvedev wrote. Link
So Russia has threatened to attack the US if Ukraine defends itself with American supplied weapons? What if those weapons are supplied by Germany, or Poland, or Sweden? To all intents Russia has declared war on the rest of the world.
It seems the west has thrown Ukraine under the bus, only obliquely. It seems they are playing a delaying tactic, hoping Russia will bleed to a stop in Ukraine without to war blowing up into something bigger. But considering Putin's actions to date, and all his rhetoric, what do they think his reaction will be when his generals tell him they are still fighting a guerrilla war that is bleed people and resources faster than they can be replaced, that no where in Ukraine, and ultimately Crimea is safe, and finally the Russian people start resisting the conscription to send their sons to the meat grinder that Ukraine has become? It seems the elites hubris over their own abilities to suppress the tyrants without losing control is still evident. The costs will continue to escalate. Do they hope to bleed Russia dry? A lack of resources and money won't make Putin less likely to use his nukes, it'll make him more likely to press that button. I hope his generals have the balls to say NO!
Nobody should have got involved. If Ukraine had not been given the impression that everyone was going to try and bail them out then perhaps they would have been forced to negotiate their way out instead. The USA is simply using Ukraine and will end up throwing them under the bus. Ukraine was never going to be part of the West and them joining NATO was never going to happen they are being used to poke the Bear and are now paying the price.
The West also chucked loads of weapons into Syria and look how that worked out. I am glad that I don't have to make these strategic decision. I am a bit of a dove and would have preferred it if NZ had only supplied humanitarian aid and no weapons or training, maintaining our independent foreign policy. However there are also times when a bully has to be stood up to. You are damned if you do and damned if you don't.
You should have told Russia not to get involved. This is an easy win for the USA... bloody Russia's nose with zero loss of USA (or NATO) lives. With over 1 million Ukranian soldiers and more to come USA can keep this up for years... decades even. The real question is whether Russia can. When service by requirement kicks in in Russia the rioting will start. Parents are already asking why their sons are dying for Putin's mansions.
What negotiation? Did they even get the offer to negotiate? Surrender to Russia, become a vassal state? What then of Europe, or Moldova, or Poland and so on? What choice is that? What about Ukraine's right to choose it's own path?
Why do you you say Ukraine would never become part of the west? Ukraine was going through it's own upheaval shrugging of the legacies of the USSR. Zelenskyy was the first president they had that had no political history and was walking them towards Europe and away from Russia (which is likely the only reason Russia invaded). The EU accepts the blatantly corrupt Orban in Hungary, and Erdogan in Turkey, so why not ukraine?
Complete BS
While Ukrainians are again paying a heavy price due to Russian aggression they have not forgotten the millions of Ukrainians who died (actually were slaughtered) last time Russia took control - including my wife's grandparents. So its just as well America et al are prepared to provide weapons - and this is not to say at all that war is good
negotiate their way out instead.
How do you negotiate your way out with someone who denies you exist?
Fighting fire with fire is simply a firefight really. Regardless of the intensity, everything eventually burns. Russia started it certainly but the USA and others have joined in remotely. Ukraine has proved to be a testing ground for both weaponry and exposure of major susceptibilities in the Russian military equivalent(s.) Ukraine itself though is the badly burnt identity here.
Exactly Murray86 they are to be supplied with rockets with a range of 80km while Russia uses missiles fired from the black sea hundreds of kilometers away also uses thermobaric missiles in fact no restraints at all . As for Russian aggression towards the west their threats are incredibly annoying, imagine if the west started threatening them constantly with nuclear. Just yesterday they were skiting how they could destroy USA with 4 missiles I am sure it would be returned if occurred with interest but why threaten, at best stupid at worst brain dead .
That is a thread both telling & ominous. In recent times only Russia & China have referred to their nuclear weapon capability threateningly. For instance July 2021 the CCP by video advises Japan could expect a nuclear attack if it should come to the defence of Taiwan. Very early on Russia in its Ukrainian campaign Russia persistently publicised its move to put it’s nuclear arms on alert. Not long after a scenario of the UK being struck as such was suggested. Both these two nations have been repeatedly bellicose in proclaiming the prowess of their hyper missiles etc.
So far out of context as to be irrelevant, but the Anti-US brigade love to roll this out regularly.
The rationale behind the use of nukes against Japan;
- Japan attacked America
- They had introduced a suicide method of attack.
- The projected casualties expected from a conventional attack on the Japanese home islands was over 500,000 from all sides, but mostly civilians either committing suicide or attacking the invasion forces.
- The nuclear weapons offered a much less deadly effect.
- To this day the total casualties from the use of those weapons has still not exceeded the projected casualty count for an invasion. The net effect was that the nukes were used to save lives, and end the war.
You might take the time to have a look at Operation Downfall, the allies plan to invade Japan in 1945. The overwhelming reason for the decision to drop the bomb was the horrendous casualties the Americans sustained in Okinawa and the mindset of the military government running Japan at the time. We now know that the shocking estimates in Downfall were likely to have been grossly under estimated. This is also from my perspective as a former intelligence and staff officer who has been involved in planning and observing of amphibious assault operations and the with the Green Machine - the USMC. It is also from the perspective of the son-in-law of a woman who, as a young mother in Kawasaki in 1945, was forced train to repel the Gaijin Monsters armed only with a bamboo spear and also as one who spent quite a lot of time drinking former Kempetai officers under the table and hearing how they really thought and felt. It is also from the perspective of one who taught Japanese diplomats, Jieitai and keisastucho officers for 10years and regularly went drinking with them - which is when you find out how they really think about gaijin.
That said, having visited both Hiroshima and Nagasaki and experienced the horrible sadness of what happened, I do support the dropping of the bomb, but not on cities but on other targets. However, subsequent post war research and my own indicates that that might not have been enough for the crazies who were running the Japan at the time - they were and ins one cases did (Okinawa) happily sacrifice loads of civilians for "honour " of Japan.
I've read about it. much of that is what I cited from memory. you reinforced my view - thank you.
And while like you, I do support the use of those weapons then, I abhor their threatened use now. And as Foxglove indicated, only the authoritarian states are rattling the nuclear "sabre" now. But stepping back from bullies only empowers them. Today the possible use of nukes can mean very small "tactical" weapons, but I believe that any such escalation should be met head on and at least in kind to ensure no further escalation. In other words the threat of nukes is automatically understood that they will be responded to in kind to dig out those who use them first, finally and for good.
Today Russia is attacking Ukraine from a sanctuary behind it's own borders, and the west is restraining Ukraine from going to and attacking those sanctuaries. It's like the world has forgotten the lessons of previous wars. Can Ukraine, or any other country in Europe feel safe again? Not ever unless Russia is taught a sound lesson and is pushed back hard!
My father was RNZAF and for some time, attached to US Command in Guadalcanal. Dual role liaison and intelligence. Common thought at the end that he expressed, was if you had fought through as well, Tarawa, Saipan, Iwo Jima, Okinawa (and that’s just the Marines) any bomb, anything that would end it would do. All parents would agree, and I think it unlikely anybody of today, transported back in time to be in those same circumstances, would disagree. President Truman made his decision very easily and quickly. It was his foremost duty to save as best as able American lives. An abstract, hypothetical thought though. God help the world is any of the Axis had developed nuclear weapons first. It wouldn’t have stopped with two.
75 Years Later, Purple Hearts Made for an Invasion of Japan are Still Being Awarded
https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/176762
https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/history-of-the-purple-he…
I'd always wondered if that was just an unfounded internet rumour, but it seems it is true.
Architect General Curtis Le May. Took quite some kudos himself for it too. Subsequently became Joint Chief of Staff. The same general designed too the formations for the B17s etc over the continental targets that saved countless airplanes and air crews. Hamburg & Dresden for instance suffered firestorms little short of the Japanese devastation. That was the war footing. Germany had blitzed civilian targets and even in WW1 bombarded the same by both their navy & zeppelins. This was WW2. None of us were there. Many of us though are here now because the men and woman who fought for what they saw as their freedom. Le May’s philosophy was brutal and simple. Do what ever it takes to beat down the enemy with the least damage to your own forces. He saw that his first duty. In reality in exactly the same vein as my above remark re Truman’s decision but of course, as both a strategy and tactic, a forerunner
He also admitted that if the allies had lost the war he would likely have been tried as a war criminal for the fire bombing raids. But at the end of the day that was the best that the technology of the day could deliver. In Europe it was Germany who were the first to bomb cities, but the first bombing of London was essentially an accident.
If you can get ahold of the biography “Iron Eagle” (Thomas M Coffey.) It lays the story of the man out, warts and all. As it was, I happened to be reading that myself and thinking my father would want to read this, when I got a phone call that he had died. Never forgotten that. Would lend it to you but unfortunately one of the many that were lost by the EQ burst water pipe.
https://gulfnews.com/business/davos-2022-economic-storm-looming-busines…
“We have at least four crises, which are interwoven. We have high inflation … we have an energy crisis… we have food poverty, and we have a climate crisis. And we can’t solve the problems if we concentrate on only one of the crises.” German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-lng-markets-brace-un…
That is where the rubber will (or won't!) hit the road. The northern hemisphere winter will call a lot of bluffs.
Indeed! What a time to be unable to present even a modicum of resistance to foreign nations, thank all that is good for our considerable geographic isolation, I certainly do.
We are so lucky in this country but we are really banking on Australia here, perhaps taking their criminals is not such a bad deal after all.
Wall Street is lower today with the S&P500 down -0.5% in late Wednesday trade.
Measured from what was likely the bubble peak in January, I expect negative S&P 500 total returns over the coming 10-12 year period, with an interim market loss on the order of 60-70%. Indeed, measured from the recent peak, it would not be surprising for the S&P 500 to lag Treasury bills for 20 years. All of this should be viewed as full-cycle context. Short- and intermediate-term market behavior will still be heavily affected by shifts between speculative and risk-averse psychology, which we infer from the uniformity or divergence of market internals. It’s in periods of risk-aversion that extreme valuations will suddenly matter most. Link
Interesting track record this guy has
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/strategic-growth-fund/
foxglove 8 am hits the nail on the head. The war is an excuse for the west to test weapons. Lend lease by USA has always been a means of wealth stripping by deceit. It is no different to Chinas belt and road loans. Sadly Ukraine is the major loser and the rest of the world loses because oil is sky high and grain is lost for the poorest nations.
Carlos who would you identify as the model nation to be able to set and enforce standards of freedom and democracy across the world? Which nation would you follow?
Don't forget to explain how they would not only defend their position, but defend themselves as well as those who are being bullied by others?
Carlos that is such an inane comment as to be ridiculous. Zelenskyy, irrespective of his history has proven to be a much more capable leader than many of the recognised leaders around the world. Besides to be successful as a comedian, one has to be very intelligent, and quick of mind. Putin on the other hand.....
Comment if first paragraph that American mortgage interest rates "slipped back a bit" last week.
Anyone have a good link to retail American/anglosphere rates before I get lost in Google trying to find one? Be interested to see what they are in UK, USA, Australia.
Thanks jo
Once again the NZ government has said no to introducing a sugar tax ....
... its been proven overseas that a sugar tax reduces teeth cavities , reduces obesity , reduces incidence of type 2 diabetes ...
Coca Cola will be sending a slab of product and a big thank you card to Jacinda ...
Back on the Financials, it's worth reading Rabobank guru Michael Every's take on NZ's obeisance to Uncle Sam:
"Will the above move Kiwi markets today? No. Will it if we see a bifurcated Indo-Pacific region, and/or China importing much less from New Zealand to push-back against its shift towards the US? Yes - and the risks of that just increased markedly."
Whoa, Neddy. Who thought it was a spiffing idea to make noises that go straight up China's sensitive left nostril....?
Amateur hour in geopolitics.......yet again.
But just as Shanghai gets its release, there are signs that Hong Kong may have to be put back into a strict lockdown again. They have the same problem - low vaccination rates especially for older residents, which risks overwhelming their health system capacity. And Hong Kong may not be the only other large Chinese city to face renewed lockdowns.
Say what you will about the government on other issues but they absolutely nailed it getting us to position where we're not having to keep locking down wholesale or implode our underfunded under-resourced health system.
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