Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that apart from coal, almost all commodity prices are falling today. Market recession fears are behind the retreats.
But first, the latest weekly update of American retail sales shows it bubbling higher at a very good pace, well ahead of inflation. This index reports a +13% rise year-on-year, before price adjustments.
But a good proportion can be attributed to inflation. Americans don't see it as transitory at all now, in the short-term at least. The latest consumer expectation survey pegs one year ahead inflationary expectations at 6.8%, but still lower than actual inflation which is running at 8.6%. The survey reports that three-year ahead inflation is expected to run at only +3.6%.
But there is new evidence that the China-to-US trade is picking up, a definite sign of rising retail demand.
We have been reporting on slipping ocean freight rates, but we should also report that US trucking freight rates are now falling too. Lower factory orders in an attempt to control rising inventories means less road freight, and as demand slips, companies are trying to reset trucking freight agreements lower. If the retail demand rise is sustained, these renegotiations may be short-lived.
One commodity not likely to be on ships heading for the US is cotton sourced from Xinjiang. Producers there are in a desperate position, only surviving because of Beijing subsidies. The trade pushback on Uygur forced-labour abuse in the region is having a substantial impact.
The latest update to the US WASDE review of American and international grain supplies shows that higher production in North America (US and Canada) will pretty much offset lower eastern Europe supply (Ukraine and Russia), so the expected crisis in world cereal production probably won't occur.
The US Treasury had a 10yr bond auction earlier today, bringing a lower yield. It was well supported but the latest median yield was 2.85%, down from 2.95% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.
The start of the Q2 earnings reports on Wall Street is showing that companies are prioritising dividend payout levels, and that is putting a floor on downward yield pressures on stock prices.
In China, more details of their infrastructure stimulus plans are being revealed. They are to add more than 460,000 kms of new highways by 2035.
India released industrial production data for May earlier today and that rose by almost +20% year-on-year in a big gain that was widely expected because it was off a weak base.
A new wave of COVID infections are now sweeping across Europe and North American, lifting case numbers sharply, and deaths too, again taking 100s of lives daily. A re-commitment to mask-wearing is being urged by the WHO.
The United Nations says the world population will hit 8 bln in November and grow to around 8.5 bln by 2030 and 9.7 bln by 2050, before reaching a peak of around 10.4 bln people during the 2080s. The population is expected to remain at that level until 2100. Two-thirds of the projected increase through 2050 will be driven by the momentum of past growth that is embedded in the youthful age structure of the current population. And part is from declining death rates - birth rates are falling too.
In Australia, the widely-watched NAB business confidence survey shows it fell to a below-average +1 index point in June, as global uncertainty, looming interest rate hikes and inflation continued to cloud the outlook in Australia. Fears over these impacts on Aussie household consumption were particularly evident with confidence in the retail sector taking a significant hit. This business confidence slip is mirrored in a Westpac consumer confidence survey also out yesterday for June.
The UST 10yr yield starts today down at 2.95% and a -4 bps slip from yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve has stayed negative, now at -8 bps but little-changed since yesterday. Their 1-5 curve is flatter at just +2 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is also flatter at +137 bps. The Australian ten year bond is -4 bps lower at 3.44%. The China Govt ten year bond is down -1 bp at 2.83%. However the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today up +6 bps ahead of today's RBNZ MPR at 3.70%.
Wall Street has opened its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 virtually unchanged. Overnight, European markets were all firmer, by about +0.5%. Yesterday, Tokyo ended its Monday session down -1.8%. Hong Kong was down -1.3% and Shanghai was down -1.0%. The both ASX200 and the NZX50 ended essentially unchanged.
The price of gold will open today at US$1726/oz which is -US$10 lower than this time yesterday.
And oil prices have slid -US$7.50 to just om US$94/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just on US$98/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today little-changed from this time yesterday at 61.4 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are marginally softer at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up at 61.1 euro cents. Notice that the USD and the EUR are very close to parity now, a 20-year event. That means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 70.5 and a minor firming.
The bitcoin price has slipped further since this time yesterday and is now at US$19,845 and down -3.6%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/-2.9%.
Due to staff availability, there will be no video summary today. Hopefully back tomorrow.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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133 Comments
But Luxon said the rest of the world was over COVID.
Europe certainly is, no one cares or talks about it, I know first hand, I'm in Europe now.
If we measured the road toll in the same way we measure COVID deaths, anyone who died within 28 days of driving a car would be on the list.
The rest of the world is gradually figuring out that this is a silly way of measuring things. We'll get there eventually.
I get what your saying and agree to a point but same could be said in reverse. It wasn’t a car crash that killed them it was the chunk of car metal that went through them.
My view, covid kills lots of vulnerable people or leads them to their death, we should try reduce some of the deaths but not at the expense of everything else.
Modelers recently suggested that half the NZ population had already had WuFlu.
On those numbers covid reported deaths this year are under represented by 20% meaning statistically no one is NZ is dying from Covid.
Go figure!
Covid has shown to be seasonal with cases tending to be higher in Winter than Summer. Europe is in Summer right now, will be interesting to see what happens come Winter up north
Yvil,try not to get monkey pox ;-)
Same here in the UK.
They’re still isolating is they catch it in Europe though. I have relatives in Italy who are stuck at home with it for two weeks.
I just returned from UK. No masks there either. Covid is so 2020. Also was a pain at Auck Airport wrt Manchester Airport.
Think they are, it's the WHO that are asking for masks etc to be reinstated, but doubt many governments will. I've just come back from oseas and the people are over covid, most don't even mentioned it and media don't broadcast like they used too. Even here the media don't seem to be broadcasting it like they used to.
Otago and Southland Covid is running wild. It's not over like Europe. People going down all the time and off work. Mask wearing is pretty good. (there are always a few exceptions but dicks will be dicks)
In my circle of friends and family there seems to be a trend of getting it again. Not just occasional, it's very common. the benefit of the Vac seems to lie in reducing the effects of illness.
Incorrect. My benefit was not being vaccinated, thus avoiding any adverse reaction to the experimental gene therapy and it's uncontrolled amounts of the viruses pathogenic spike protein.
You have been conditioned to believe that the 'vaccine' reduces the effects of illness. You obviously wear a mask, been boostered yet are getting the infection again, it's very common. Perhaps in conclusion I could state, masks and 'vaccines', don't work.
It's raining here in Southland, I will put on a raincoat for you, so you don't get wet.
"You have been conditioned to believe that the 'vaccine' reduces the effects of illness. You obviously wear a mask, been boostered yet are getting the infection again, it's very common. Perhaps in conclusion I could state, masks and 'vaccines', don't work."
So your argument is that because immunity is not total, it has no effect at all?
It's raining here in Auckland. If someone else is carrying an umbrella and lets me walk under it with them, neither one of us would get wet. Your logic says that because we aren't getting wet, it must not be raining.
If vaccines don't work, I wonder why the unvaxxed are hospitalized at 5x the rate of vaxxed? And end up in ICU at 9x the rate?
https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and…
Personally I was 'conditioned' by reading the Scientific literature. The benefits of the vaccine are pretty clear.
I've had three, due for another booster soon. Wear a mask at work if there's someone in the office with me - we're running at ~10% sickness so it makes sense.
No Covid for me yet despite my household having had it and multiple close contacts.
actually the data has recently shown that vaccinated and boosted were over represented in cases and hospitalisations.
So much so that the RNZ visualisation data has had the graphs removed.
https://www.voicesforfreedom.co.nz/blog/post/data-they-dont-want-you-see
gotta laugh dont ya
Yea,ya gotta laugh at getting data from voices for freedom...I'm off to look at data from tobacco companies to decide if smoking/vaping is a health issue...
the data was from Radio New Zealand covid visualisation page, duh!
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/450874/covid-19-data-visualisations…
I should have phrased it differently...not data,more the voices for freedom 'spin' or 'analysis' of the data.
...I'm off to look at data from tobacco companies to decide if smoking/vaping is a health issue...
LOL, that's exactly what you are doing when you "follow the science"
What ever crawl back down your rabbit hole lol
You think the British Medical Journal is a rabbit hole?
They were actually the first organisation to establish and publish the link between smoking and cancer way back in 1957, now they publish something you don't like and you rubbish them, good one.
.
It's a shame the data has been removed - more data is always better. My question would be were the vaccinated and boosted still overrepresented when you take into account the fact that the elderly and both more likely to be vaccinated and more likely to suffer from the disease? I.e. is the data controlled for age? Without the data that is hard to answer...
The data around COVID is rubbish.
Influenced by constantly changing policy/rules and management of who gets tested and when and the consequences of returning a positive test.
Quite ironic in a day and age when the computing power available to quickly draw pictures over the data just gives us a fuzzy view.
LOL, what 'gene therapy'?! Are you referring to the 'microchips' they've put in it so they can read brain waves!?
it's uncontrolled amounts of the viruses pathogenic spike protein
How can there be 'uncontrolled amounts' of pathogenic spike protein when the vaccine contains a limited amount of messenger RNA? That doesn't make sense. You realize the virus is coated in 'pathogenic spike protein', so if you catch the actual live virus you're exposed to significantly higher amounts (if this is your fear).
"How can there be 'uncontrolled amounts' of pathogenic spike protein when the vaccine contains a limited amount of messenger RNA"
Because its replicating in your cells, how much stike protein you end up having float around your body is unknown
There's nothing about it that is 'replicating' though. The mRNA is encoded into the spike protein in the ribosome and once the mRNA has been translated it is degraded shortly afterwards.
This is why I can't stand listening to this pseudo-science bullshit.
Except it's synthetic mRNA since the normal stuff does not work that well for vaxes. They replaced the uridine with (N1-methyl-)pseudouridine (article from Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology journal).
The vast majority of literature on pseudouridine substitution is way to recent (<5 years) to be sure of anything.
Except it's synthetic mRNA
Who cares? You body can't tell the difference. All that happens is it's encoded into a spike protein of the virus.
Whoopty doo. It was found to improve the effectiveness of the vaccine. Should I care or something?
'LOL, what 'gene therapy'?! Are you referring to the 'microchips' they've put in it so they can read brain waves!?'
Steady on chap.
"mRNA as gene therapeutic: How to control protein expression"
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0168365910008308…
Gene therapy avenues and COVID-19 vaccines
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41435-021-00136-6
Do you see the contradiction between "You body can't tell the difference" and "It was found to improve the effectiveness of the vaccine" (and it otherwise behaving like normal mRNA)?
Some highlights from the "Ψ(pseudouridine) can Trick the Immune System" section:
- "TLR7 could recognize uracil repeats in close proximity in the RNA"
- "Ψ-modified mRNA could be more resistant to RNase L-mediated degradation"
I suspect no one cares about this level of detail so I won't exchange replies on this. The only real point is "All that happens.." summaries are not possible.
But your not really interested and one reply away from saying the vax is proven "safe and effective" so this does not matter. Which is fair enough until you expect the MSM narrative to be the truth for everyone.
and I thought it would go away with Trump - lol - Desantis is going to open it up again like a pus filled wound that won't heal.
It is not a vaccine. Gene Therapy does not use a dead or attenuated virus but uses a segment of the viruses genome (hence gene therapy), to program human cells to produce more. That is the part of the experiment of uncontrolled amounts of spike protein being produced. You are welcome to participate in the experiment, that was developed at 'warp' speed, by companies (one with a felony conviction), with billions to gain and no product liability. My fear has always been the gene therapy. The virus was a mild cold and nothing to fear.
The virus was a mild cold and nothing to fear.
Factually, provably false. Start at https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-esti… .
Totally your choice to pass up the vaccine, but your fear and misinformation is far more damaging than the vaccine.
Very well said Dick. We too are seeing reoccurrences in our friends, who have been shot up. They are crook for longer and often much sicker. The real effects of their depleted immune systems may take longer to appear.
I have a family member fit and in their 20s who has been double jabbed, got covid bad and has since had the flu twice really bad.
Im unvaxxed and in my 50s, not in the greatest shape and have had covid and it was no more than a seasonal cold.
Do you know what variant you had,there are a few going around?
Hate to tell you this, but your immune system is as unique as your personality. Anecdotes don't work when applying policy to a whole population which is what governments have to do. My unvaccinated friend almost died of omicron, yet I have been exposed to it dozens of times and never had anything (double vaxxed/boosted). It's all individual at a person level, so drawing conclusions from one or two cases is like saying "Someone once died from wearing a safety belt, so I never wear safety belts". If you think like this, you aren't thinking critically, you are simply mistaking sound logic for logical fallacies.
I knew a bloke who would drink all afternoon at the pub then hop on his motorbike for a 45 min ride home in the country. He's still doing fine. Clearly there is nothing to all this alcohol kills business.
Can you explain how a vaccine would 'deplete your immune system' because I can't think of any plausible mechanism for this claim.
It is called Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE). The vaccine increases the ability of a virus to enter cells making the disease worse.
Here's some info - Dengue fever known to be a culprit. As with all things, a little bit of info out of context is used for other agendas. This issue was taken seriously at the beginning of this pandemic. I thought this was a good summary.
https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-…
And that is what clinical trials are for. Long term effects on infections, cancers, future corona virus strains, flu's are unknown. I will not be forced to mess with my immune system, when I am happy with my diet, exercise and sunlight regiment. But doctors are now indoctrinated into their 'science', even now vaccinating children under 5, who have literally no chance of dying of covid. The psychosis is real, yet the experiment has failed.
I suggest you think long and hard before stating that anyone has 'literally no chance' of dying of Covid. Anyone with a fraction of the competency to speak on these matters that you're claiming would acknowledge that the chances of these things are never zero. And functionally, whether Covid is the sole cause or a contributing cause to your death doesn't matter. You're still dead.
We knew early on covid was no risk to children - compared to everyday risks. Also no increase in relative risk to teachers. Yet we still trashed their education and forced them to pay for it through rampant borrowing and the destruction of the economy.
"Severe covid-19 disease as measured in ICU admittance is very rare in both countries in this age group and no deaths were reported. Outbreak investigations in Finland has not shown children to be contributing much in terms of transmission and in Sweden a report comparing risk of covid-19 in different professions, showed no increased risk for teachers."
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2026670
No learning loss in Sweden during the pandemic: Evidence from primary school reading assessments
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883035522000891#fig…
https://www.economist.com/international/2022/07/07/covid-learning-loss-…
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2026670
Great example of Confirmation Bias
It's raining here in Southland, I will put on a raincoat for you, so you don't get wet.
Don't worry, you'll stay nice and dry under your tinfoil hat !
He was wearing it upside down
Best fit...
Thanks for the medical advice, I assume you got your medical certificate from the prestigious University of Facebook.
I would suspect the people reporting adverse reactions to the vaccine on the University of Facebook pages do not have a profit motive like Pfizer.
Yep, that's definitely how science works, let's base it on people reporting it on Facebook. I believe that's how they cracked penicillin
Dr ? Professor? Mortensen,Sounds like you have fallen prey to Mark Zuckerbergs algorithims ...oh and facebook is not about profit lol?
I thought Mr Luxon has just been to the UK, he obviously wasn't paying much attention to what was going on.
Commodity prices on another wild ride. Everything that can be traded has become a speculative asset to be gambled on by thousands of rich blokes in suits trying to buy low and sell high - with secondary and tertiary markets in commodity derivatives and insurance (which are also traded / gambled on). The volatility this creates is crazy. What a way to run the world.
What an IDIOTIC way to run the world. Which is why I keep saying all derivatives should be made illegal everywhere, for everything. Futures trading should be very limited and tightly controlled as well as currency trading. Instead we have financialised everything from space in containers to percentage of gold from slag to imaginary currencies to fake weapons in video games. We have done this on the mistaken belief these provide new ways to increase our economic output. Instead they create insane systems that increasingly work against efficiency and productivity.
I'm in Europe (Sweden, Spain, France and Switzerland so far) and no one is talking about "C", no one is wearing masks, not in public, not in shops or restaurants, not in trains or buses, not even in planes. It's wonderful, life is fully back to normal. No "C" word in the news either.
Excellent example to Nz
Is it 'back to normal' for the 100s of people dying with covid?
France is asking people to wear masks again due to the surge.
https://www.voanews.com/a/with-hospitalizations-up-france-weighs-return…
Have you considered that the season might be playing a small part in that...
Or that the jabs are taking their toll as well?
Mnnn peanuts....
Shut up, brain...
Holy sh*t GLC,out of curiosity I looked at the "Expose" website....are you serious,talk about conspiracy theories...turn your comp off,get out and get some fresh air.
or that the vaccine is wearing off,time for another booster?
So shall we insist on a healthcare system that only treats conditions in the news then? Newspapers focus on things people will look at to get advertising revenue. NZ Herald today - no health care conditions, Stuff today - no healthcare conditions, RNZ website today - no healthcare conditions. By your reasoning not much going on in healthcare today.
Re Covid - my 82 year old dad is in Europe right now, he got covid and had recovered within 3-4 days.
Given the international status & attitude, cannot imagine the NZ government will inflict any greater restrictions here than as present. The hospitals etc are surely in a crisis but it seems they cannot afford to admit it and are keeping the blinds closed and riding the storm praying for an early end to winter. In reality there is no overnight solution sitting on the shelf anyway. Decades of ignoring the impending doom by successive governments have come home to roost. Except it would have been worthy of this one to have heeded the Covid alarm clock and at least started, early in the piece, planning and initiating improvements.
Plot twist: just joining some dots here, Yvil is your father?
Haha, nice. Tense father and son relationship.
Haha, that's a very good one KiwiTim!
Unlikely as my mum is 1 year younger than House Mouse's dad. (I guess you could joke HM.& I are brothers, lol)
Michael Hudson’s Major Lecture at the Global University in China on July 11th, 2022 – and posted with Dr Hudson’s permission
The End of Western Civilization – Why It Lacks Resilience, and What Will Take Its Place
The greatest challenge facing societies has always been how to conduct trade and credit without letting merchants and creditors make money by exploiting their customers and debtors. All antiquity recognized that the drive to acquire money is addictive and indeed tends to be exploitative and hence socially injurious. The moral values of most societies opposed selfishness, above all in the form of avarice and wealth addiction, which the Greeks called philarguria – love of money, silver-mania. Individuals and families indulging in conspicuous consumption tended to be ostracized, because it was recognized that wealth often was obtained at the expense of others, especially the weak.
One of the best reads ever, Audaxes.
Thanks
Very interesting perspective. But I am not sure if I agree with the underlying claims that societies that were following teachings of Buddha, Lao-Tzu and Zoroaster, were any better (overall) or better off than the greedy, ruthless Romans. These societies also believe in "divine order" and "the promotion of overall welfare and mutual aid" must be understood in such context. The protection of the weak against the strong is also within the respective "duties", e.g. it will be unjust to kill a peasant that has served all the orders given by his "betters".
The fact that usury (the debt trap main mechanism) is forbidden in many societies, does not mean much in my humble opinion. This is as much to keep everything as is (as no capable "low class citizen" can accumulate wealth via economic means. the only avenue will be joining a war band and conquereing other orders, and sit on the top ).
So banning of usury (and keeping it in the hands of the kings) is not necessarily in the greater good. It primary function is to keep the order that keep the kings and the priests and monks and etc in their position.
They did it because exponential growth always trashes your support habitat. They either worked that out beforehand, or worked out why they'd just collapsed and created up a regime which fitted the facts. You can't charge interest when all anyone has is a camel, two goats, a hookah, a tent, and access to saline sand which was once the fertile crescent.
Really?, the cast system of India and similar rigid social systems are to stop "exponential growth" and prevent destroying habitats? So very wise they are.
I am 100% sure that you can still charge interest in your scenario. Because in no time, few of these survivors will end up owning everyone else's one camel, two goats and their hookahs and tents. Either by convincing them that they selected few know what god(s) want, or that they are more effective in killing others or scaring them into submission. Then they will charge them "interest" or whatever you want to call it for letting them access to what they need to survive on.
Good rebuttal. I think the latter scenario can indeed happen, but runs the risk at some break-point, of a Bastille-storming.
Which is what I think ISIS represented, and Sri Lanka currently - a crowd past break-point. There will be many more.
And the Covid reporting continues here in NZ. Keep the fear going. Apparently NZ is not 'over it'.
How about a headline, The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES), pays $13,000 to any hospital for a Covid-19 admission and if you get on a ventilator Medicare pays $39,000 to the financially strapped hospitals, whether you have insurance or not, incentivizing hospitals to code patients as Covid-19 admissions. It is also acceptable to report Covid-19 on a death certificate as probable or presumed.
And I should perhaps not mention the CARES act paying up to $9,000 towards funeral expenses for any death 'presumed to be Covid-19, even without a positive test and multiple co-morbidities.
That seems a bit long for a headline, but if you have a bone to pick over Covid reporting, I'm not sure why you'd suddenly then pivot to reporting on the US Covid response that has nothing to do with us here and cite a whole bunch of legislation that has no relevance to NZ.
Ever heard of a company called Pfizer? So relevant to NZ, we tend to follow America and perhaps you can see through the Medical Industrial complex's extraction of public money.
Ever heard of a company called Pfizer?
Yep. That company's drugs have enabled me to live a normal and active life for the past 30 years instead of being a bed-ridden cripple, which would have been my fate if I had been born 100 years ago. 3 cheers for Pfizer!
I'm afraid it's no longer fashionable to use medicine based on science. Have you considered going Paleo, drinking only kombucha and doing yoga instead?
MFD,also it is safer to trust a drug manufactured in a garage by a gang member than those nasty pharmaceutical companies...
there will be many in Nigeria who beg to differ
There is no pharmaceutical product (chemical) that will guarantee an infection free life. Chemicals do not strengthen your immune system.
Try eating real food, not out of a packet or a drive up window, loaded with refined sugar, a real immune poison. Immune systems need oxygen, vitamins, minerals and fat. Pfizer provides none of that.
"First-half global catastrophe losses may be “lighter than average” – JPM
As a result, the analysts believe first-half 2022 catastrophe industry losses may be as low as $22 billion to $24 billion, which is well-below the 11-year average of $34 billion."
https://www.artemis.bm/news/first-half-global-catastrophe-losses-may-be…
Looking forward to coverage of the REINZ June reports just released
Wellington is a shocker:
- Days to Sell = 50 days vs 10yr average of 37
- 20 weeks of inventory in June 2022 vs 5 weeks in June 2021
- -5.8% MoM median price decrease
I'm not surprised (though I am smirking).
Maybe it's my confirmation bias, because I'm leaving Wellington & NZ next month, but it does feel the capital city is hemorrhaging people. Particularly people in my circle (late 20s - mid 30 professionals). It's been a struggle selling my belongings as I'm competing with so many other people leaving. Those who have purchased my belongings, or people I've donated to, have said things like "gosh, everyone is leaving".
It must be tricky not having DINKs and young professionals to pay off your mortgages.
Wellington has for years chosen to talk about how cool it is instead of doing anything to actually make itself a cool place to be for young people. It's still visually the same windswept wet dreary place in winter that it was ten years ago. You can't rest on your laurels forever and I think Wellington is finding this out the hard way - you might still be cool, but you're not "45% of your net wages on a mortgage for 30 years" cool. I worry though because the young people struggling with living costs in Wellington provided an awkward counter-narrative to the out-of-touch civil servant one and it seems Wellington is only interested in catering to one of those groups these days.
The winters are crap but in my opinion the ‘non-summers’ are worse.
Don't forget "Shitsville". Wellington's second winter, embedded within spring, that's often worse than actual winter.
I never understood why they took a cool, pedestrian part of the city, and then gave in to the motorcar and carved it all up.
And now they're trying to get bike friendly.
For what it's worth, exactly the same thing happened when I was in that age group *mumble* years ago. A lot of air is being given to this being some kind of new trend, or even a disaster, but every generation has done it, even my parents' generation did - I was born outside NZ because my parent had followed their careers overseas.
Most of my friends ended up coming back to NZ, while a few stayed overseas. Of seven siblings/step-siblings, five went overseas and four returned eventually.
I genuinely wish you the very best on your journey, and hope you find the success and fulfillment you seek. Safe travels.
Saying "Every generation does it" papers over the fact that now for some, it's the only realistic chance to put down roots like home ownership.
If anything, we should know the perils of saying "It was like that for everyone" to normalise the issues facing young Kiwis, because that's how you end up normalising 11x median income house prices. Kiwis need to stop looking for excuses to not do something about stuff like this.
Article by Bernard Hickey on email today as below. Why is RBNZ playing double game and why is it not being highlighted and debated
"The headlines later today will all be about the Reserve Bank’s well-telegraphed 50 basis point hike in its Official Cash Rate to 2.5% and how it’s another measure to slow the economy and inflation down.
So why is the Reserve Bank still lending banks $12.7b of subsidised cash that is helping to keep asset prices inflated, keep term deposit rates low and further increase bank profits, which are already running at $20m per day?
The Reserve Bank set up its Funding for Lending programme during the first year of the Covid crisis to lend banks billions at the same rate as the Official Cash Rate in order to encourage lending and help boost home-owner wealth so as to support the economy. That worked, pushing up house prices 45%, but by mid-2021 it was clear it had worked too well and was generating too much inflation. So the central bank stopped money printing in mid-2021 and started hiking the OCR in October last year because it wanted to slow inflation.
So why is it still shovelling out discounted loans to banks at a rate that means more than a quarter of all new bank lending since December 2020 has been backed by these subsidised loans – and nearly 40% of all new lending since it started tightening monetary policy?"
Funding for Lending Programme (FLP) has been declared a repo transaction available to existing RBNZ counterparties.
Outstanding bank funding arrangements for eligible collateral securities are forecast to be replaced by RBNZ OCR priced funding under this arrangement.
Banks will retain an economic interest in the securities posted as loan collateral, unlike the debt securities sold, in QE transactions, to the RBNZ.
A review of this accounting diagram Exhibit 2 (secured borrowing) sets out the reality.
So why is it still shovelling out discounted loans to banks at a rate that means more than a quarter of all new bank lending since December 2020 has been backed by these subsidised loans – and nearly 40% of all new lending since it started tightening monetary policy?"
Clearly they are trying the manage any drop the housing market by encouraging bank lending with subsidised loans, desperate stuff. We are on a path to a crazy point of intervention.
Lots of friends have the flu and keep rat testing, no surprise its negitive. That said lots of covid in Auckland as well
You can often do a few RAT tests, all negative, then suddenly positive about day 4 or 5. They're not very accurate. On the other hand, there is a lot of flu and RSV around also.
The flu is truly nasty this year. Two of my colleagues developed Covid after I got my flu and more or less recovered before I did. My flu took me out fully for 4 days and had a big long tail way longer than my covid colleagues. And that was with the flu jab too.
Perhaps the flu is not nasty but your immunity is compromised by a series of jabs. ADE taking shape?
There is also the fact that NZ has barely experienced flu for the last two years as a result of closed borders and other covid precautions, so this is likely to be a much worse flu season than normal. Our collective immunity to it will be lower due to lack of recent exposure to it.
The United Nations says the world population will hit 8 bln in November and grow to around 8.5 bln by 2030 and 9.7 bln by 2050, before reaching a peak of around 10.4 bln people during the 2080s.
At least most of those people won't be in developed or developing countries. There is still hope.
That projection is based on a rear view.
Ask the purser how many people were going to be on the Titanic, the day after?
Sometimes events have a way of trumping projections. We will never reach 10 billion; the planet is on it's knees now and we've been in draw-down overshoot for half a century.
I hope not anyway. We've got quite enough humans for one earth sized planet. A few too many even.
Agreed on UN projections, they seem to base their estimates on persistent birthrates when the birthrates in most countries are declining.
Likely we'll get another pandemic, one with a bit more teeth, that will reduce numbers.
Very good chance of that, and we have dramatically failed the dress rehearsal with this relatively benign disease. Some of the nastier respiratory viruses have mortality rates a couple of orders of magnitude higher than this one.
I stated at the outset of Covid that I would not catch it and that this would be by design, not by chance. I've not caught it and I'm in the North where it has largely done the rounds. As IT guy indicates, the regular flue is much worse and I know lots that have had both.
Out of a sports club of 20 I'm now the only one that has not caught Covid (or regular flu). Only three of us unvaxxed too, the other two got a mild case. I had my most clear test yet weekend before last. Team carpooled to Paihia the Saturday to watch the fireworks, stayed a night in a hotel, paddled in Russell the next day, they the 2 1/2 trip home again. I was in the presence the entire time of someone feeling symptoms (but didn't tell anyone) but tested positive Monday morning. Interesting thing is this persons partner caught it a couple of month ago, a clear case of terrain theory.
I've been overseas 3x to Africa since the beginning of 2020.
I don't wear a mask. If you still think a mask works go stand outside downwind of your neighbours fire and see if you can smell woodsmoke. You will. If your mask won't stop woodsmoke you are in fantasy land if you think it will stop a virus.
Aren't you lucky,what about all the unvaxxed that have caught covid and ended up in hospital?There is always an exception to the rule.
Same as all the vaxxed that have caught Covid and ended up in hospital? There is always an exception to the rule.
except the vaxxed are four times less likely to end up in hospital.
Stick to facts Scarfie - those are droplet-borne. It's the droplets we are trying to impede.
Where is your evidence of that? That that the virus is droplet borne?, and that the "borne" virus will cause the disease? Terrain theory fits better when you consider my team mates situation, living with someone that has Covid but not catching it themselves until two months later. The two months later scenario more a case with a big week preparing for a race on the Friday, this one known to overtrain too.
Droplets are about the same size as PM from smoke too.
First principles too Murray, what is the actual problem? Overpopulation? Do masks solve that? Does any of the Covid response solve that? Nope, in fact it ensure the next virus will be larger in effect.
You are seriously asking for evidence about airborne virus transmission, while referencing the medical equivalent of flat-earth theory (terrain model)?
"Often people are fiddling with their masks, and people have an opportunity to get the virus on their fingers and spread it in other ways," Dr Ashley Bloomfield explains.
"They're not very effective, after all the virus can also infect you via your eyes - it basically likes to land on mucus membranes - from your eyes it likes to go down your nose anyway - so I think people should not bother with facemasks," he says."
https://www.1news.co.nz/2020/02/29/face-masks-fly-off-shelves-as-worrie…
I refer to Koch's postulate, you know that science stuff you talk about.
What I would require is that the virus be isolated from a droplet from an infected person. It would then be reproduced, and another person then infected with the virus by airborne method. Finally a sample from the newly infected persons airborne droplets would yield a virus that is identical to that in the first person.
Evidence this has been done please. I'm not aware of it, but possible it was done while I wasn't watching. Afterall I've got on with being healthy, and being an athlete. Surfing and Waka as folk about these parts know. Champion in Waka Ama too, funny thing is I rely heavily on sports science for that all the time and hear really interesting theories as to why I win over others. Same principle I see with not getting Covid, all sorts of fanciful theories.
I don't think what I have said is unreasonable in the face of extreme measures by government and in my personal decision making regarding my health.
Did you actually read that article and comprehend it yourself? No you didn't, you just did a goggle search to find something easily that you thought supported your opinion. Lightweight. Try reading books. I did my research on vaccines from books and peer reviewed papers 30 years ago, real stuff not degraded in the current polluted information ecology streams.
You will find few people who will disagree that it is possible to maintain a healthy immune system through diet and lifestyle, and that this will make you less susceptible to disease. Of course you can work on your 'terrain' and the defenders that live on it to protect you.
The logical leap from this to 'disease doesn't exist and is generated by a person with poor terrain' seems an unnecessary leap into the bizarre.
(dupe)
fantasy land
A good summary of the connection between your comment and any science at all.
Cigarette smoke will linger on fabrics for years, yet in your home-brew model of the world that means I could catch a virus years later from a smoker.
Interesting. My children are about the only ones in their school that haven't caught it. A large portion of the school is unvaxxed, my children are. Masks are not encouraged at the school. Neither my wife nor I have caught it either, or at least not that any of us know. If we have, it's come and gone without any noticeable effect.
I've never considered the vaccine to make one invulnerable to Covid, more that it can help reduce symptoms and side effects. I neither encourage nor discourage others from vaccinating or masking up.
Scarfie, it is hard on this website to contradict any of their Covid beliefs, even when you have experienced them personally. Masks, vaccines, mandates, social distancing, make them feel safe and the vaccine lesson's their fear. It is easy to fool someone, but it is hard to convince someone that he has been fooled. You were never fooled.
here we go - the conspiracy has landed.
I've done muh research and you're all sheeple! Wake up!
Mate - this is so last year.
I know mate, I've been a member here for 12 years and have seen them come and go. The real smart ones were the genuine innovators, and real intellects. Ones that found a place to have a seriously intelligent conversation. They've slowly disappeared sadly, a few were mature and have died sadly. Look at old comments by the late Kunst (Walter) and Iconoclast (Tom), both of whom I met in person. I think the only ones here before me are PDK and GBH. Tells you something when the intelligent ones move on. I'm not on here much because the discourse has sadly eroded. Covid brought a new level to it though. Have you read the one article I have had posted here? On the initial lockdowns? That is called expertise in a subject, something sadly lacking from most commenters. People don't even understand the difference between an opinion and expertise.
To summarize: NZD in the doldrums, still. Oil prices below US$100 a barrel, yippee. Freight rates are settling down across the board & it's 'cotton off' in Xinjiang. Bitcoin back below US$20,000 but holding. With our dollar down over 12% against the greenback my bitcoin portfolio is hanging in there.
That was brilliantly ironic
Thank you
The Cleveland Fed just released a working paper titled: “The Lightning Network: Turning Bitcoin into Money”
Worth a read to educate yourself on this topic. Better pay attention if you’re not up to speed (no pun intended).
Interesting paper. Bit of a dumb question, but are you able to explain how LN is economically efficient for use like cash?
I understand that there is a fee paid every time a new channel is opened - how does the LN operate to make it so that fee is negligible?
I.e. I understand how the LN works in theory, but I'm not sure of how it works in practice. Say I want to transact 10 times in a day with 10 different people. The current LN opening fee is 0.035. It would be really expensive for me to open a channel for each transaction since I'd be paying 0.35 BTC just to be able to transact. How does LN deal with that? I'm guessing that there are centralized hubs that mean you only have to pay the channel fee a couple of times? But not sure how it works.
A new wave of COVID infections are now sweeping across Europe and North American, lifting case numbers sharply, and deaths too, again taking 100s of lives daily. A re-commitment to mask-wearing is being urged by the WHO.
Worldwide deaths WITH covid (not FROM) running around 1500/day out of ~166000 total deaths per day = 0.9% of total daily deaths.
The weekly trend from your linked site shows new cases up only 6%, while deaths are down 0.4%, and newly recovered up 12%.
Most of the deaths are over 80, = close to or above the average age of mortality.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/experimental/covid-19-data-portal/
https://www.stats.govt.nz/topics/life-expectancy
These stats should not be used to scare people.
All I can say about COVID now with the benefit of hindsight is that I'm glad there was no van running about with 6 burley blokes in it that jumped out and held you down and forced you to get jabbed. So glad I decided not to get jabbed. The government over stepped the mark as it was basically forcing people to take it or lose your job.
Governments have to make tough calls sometimes and in this instance with little time.It still seems minor to many kiwis,but we were protected from the worse effects of the initial virus and delta,the body bags and overwhelmed systems overseas weren't fake news,no matter what some of the deniers think.We are struggling with omicron & the flu,if we had to deal with the initial virus,it would have been catastrophic.Any way,the majority of us took one for the team.
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