Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with a mountain of key topics to get through.
First in the US, their non-farm payrolls report for July has heaped pressure on the Fed with a much larger than expected rise. Their labour market remains hot with employers adding +528,000 jobs in the month, double what analysts had expected. This is not data that suggests the US is in recession. July is normally a month when overall payrolls shrink as firms go into their summer shutdown mode. But this year that hasn't happened with the employed labour force now over 152 mln workers, and a hugely impressive +5.8 mln gain from a year ago (or if you like seasonally adjusted data, +6.1 mln more). Apart from the 2021 recovery from 2020 there has never been a July quite like this one. The rise in the number of women being hired is impressing analysts too.
The bond market was impressed. But Wall Street equity traders weren't for some reason. (Perhaps they no longer believe the Fed will have to pause.)
The US jobless rate fell to 3.5% matching the pre-pandemic level, and their best since 1969. Their participation rate didn't change much however.
Meanwhile, consumer debt rose much more than expected, in fact almost at +US$40 bln in June from May, that was almost double the +US$25 bln expected, and the May rise was revised up. The June rise was the second biggest jump ever. At a growth exceeding +10% pa, these 'gains' (?) are running at 20 year highs. Cynics might say the rising debt is needed to keep up with inflation. Others might say this rise is because consumers feel bullish about their future income prospects, encouraged by the hot labour market. In either event, US consumer debt is now 18.8% of overall economic activity and stable on that basis. (Not including housing debt, the equivalent level in NZ is 4% of GDP.)
The Canadians also released jobs data for July and that wasn't anywhere near as impressive; in fact they reported the summer decline that didn't happen in the US. They lost -31,000 jobs in July on top of the -43,000 they lost in June. (A +20,000 gain was expected.) The July losses were split between full-time and part-time jobs, but in the context of their overall 20.6 mln labour force, it didn't change their jobless rate at 4.9%.
Singaporean retail sales fell in June from May, and that undermined their good year-on-year gains. Apart from fuel sales which were boosted by inflation, the falls were widespread and somewhat unusual for them. If the Chinese posturing on Taiwan is extended, that probably won't help economies like Singapore.
The one thing China's display of force will do in the region is trigger a sudden, sharp buildup of military defense capabilities from Japan and South Korea all the way to Indonesia (not to mention Australia). China seems to have made the same mistake Russia did by invading Ukraine. That just expanded NATO. Fear of Chinese over-reaction is doing the same in this region.
India will re-arm too.
In India, their central bank reviewed their policy rate overnight. It was 4.9% and markets had expected a +35 bps rise to 5.25%. But the RBI pushed through a full +50 bps hike to 5.4%. It a sharper than expected rise because they too have inflation concerns, and they need to shield their exchange rate which has come under pressure since war broke out in Europe.
In China, all eyes are on signs their moribund property markets are recovering. Cement production remains unusually low, but there are signs high stocks are falling, drawn down as some projects get back underway. But there is no sign that iron ore prices are rising as demand rises. And at the same time, there is no sign China has yet succeeded in driving down the iron ore price as part of it new bulk-buying program.
The Japanese have reported something of a surprise with household spending rising quite sharply in June to be +3.5% higher than a year ago, up +1.5% from May alone. No analyst saw that jump coming. These are 'real' gains, after adjusting for inflation. True it is only one month and that doesn't make it a trend. But quite a string of Japanese data has been positive recently, so this household data may have legs and underpin the inflation rise the Bank of Japan has been seeking for decades. Separately, they reported better than expected incomes growth as well.
Turkey has just reported an 80% annual inflation rate for July (well, 79.6% to be exact). Nothing the Turkish president seem to actually work for him. Now he is talking with the Russians on a new economic pact. We will see how that works out. Its the weak and the weak, and a sign of desperation.
In Australia, the RBA released its Monetary Policy Statement yesterday and among its forecasts it is expecting their jobless rate to fall to 3.4% by the end of 2022 as inflation there rises to 7.7%. That means they might be challenging us for the Trans-Tasman crown of the lowest unemployment rate. (Ours was 3.3% as at June compared to theirs at 3.5% at the same time.)
The benchmark for world food commodity prices dropped sharply in July, with major cereal and vegetable oil prices recording double-digit percentage falls. But meat prices held, and the dairy price fall was modest in the circumstances, both still very close to their all-time record highs. But the retreats for cereals are impressive and will certainly ease global inflation pressure. Along with the sharp falls in oil prices recently (see below), perhaps Team Transitory will have its day yet.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 2.83%, jerked higher by the US jobs data, and up +16 bps from this time yesterday and that represents about the weekly gain too. The UST 2-10 rate curve is more inverted today, now at -40 bps but their 1-5 curve is less negative at -30 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is now at +67 bps and much steeper than this time yesterday. The Australian ten year bond is up +13 bps at 3.26%. The China Govt ten year bond is little-changed at 2.75% and still near its low for the year. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today down -6 bps at 3.33%. A week ago it was at 3.72% so a rather large -39 bps cumulative retreat since then.
Wall Street has ended its Friday session with the S&P500 showing no real reaction to the jobs data, down -0.2% on the day to be up +0.8% for the week. It's like they believe they priced in the good jobs data already. Overnight European markets ended the week all down about -0.5% in their Friday trade. Tokyo ended up +0.9% for a weekly rise of +1.3%. Hong Kong ended yesterday up a mere +0.1% for a weekly gain of +0.9%. Shanghai rose +1.2% yesterday to limit the weekly loss to -0.6%. The ASX200 rose +0.6% on Friday for a +1.0% weekly gain. And the NZX50 ended its session flat for a very good +2.1% weekly rise. The property sector, the rest home/retirement village sector, and the energy sector all made outsized gains. The biggest gainer was A2 Milk (ATM, #10) with an +11% weekly jump enabling it to reclaim its spot in the Top 10 and nudging out Mercury (MCY, #11).
The price of gold opens today at US$1774/oz in New York which is down -US$18 /oz from this time yesterday. A week ago it was US$1765/oz, so a +US$9 gain since then.
And oil prices start up a mere +50 USc from yesterday at just over US$88.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$98 and US$104/bbl respectively, so basically a drop on -US$10/bbl in that time. That is a drop of -22% from early June, and basically back to prices in effect before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Kiwi dollar opened today down almost -¾c from this time yesterday to 62.4 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are marginally softer at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are softer too at 61.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 71. It has been in a very tight range at about this level for three weeks now.
The bitcoin price has moved marginally higher from this time yesterday, up +0.9% to US$22,845. A week ago it was at US$23,932 so it has fallen -4.5% since then. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained moderate at just over +/-2.3%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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104 Comments
Not sure the “fireworks” by the CCP are all that much of a drastic drama. Certainly the Taiwanese would be abundantly aware of the potential and given their intelligence network, probably know just as much about them as the Chinese themselves. So there it is, five fired & five worked. No duds then. That’s about the sum of it.One day one of these sort of displays is going to strike a merchant vessel or worse, then that may be something of an issue. Potential exists like that US sub that surfaced under a boat off Hawaii.
What I hear from coworkers in China, is that the sentiment on the ground is that not enough is being done about Taiwan and that they should go further. It's bad enough that I was just talking with an expat who's relocating his family out of Taiwan due to the risk.
China has really turned into a major disappointment over the last 10 years on the global stage. They have shown they do not have the maturity to get along with the grown ups in this world, frankly acting like children at times. When they blatantly say what is clearly the opposite of the truth, eg they want to help south pacific nations, it is laughable.
No I think it more shows that we've been foolish enough to not see something for what it really is....and yet if you called a spade a spade for the last 10+ years, you were labelled a xenophobe (often by people who want to pretend something wasn't what is was, because they stood to financially profit by living in denial to the reality around them).
Ultimately they're stuck, their population is going to fall off, and there's only so much prosperity you can have as the world's outsourced manufacturing capital.
Theyre allowed to join the system but the system won't allow them to play anything other than second fiddle.
Congratulations on coming across as an edgy teenager with that brilliant strawman.
Those who want to invade and subsume peaceful democratic countries should be condemned and of it's fairly self-evident that Wumao should be ridiculed.
If you have a problem with that I suggest you seek psychiatric help. A few screws may be loose.
Anyone who doesn't think like me is deranged, a paid collaborator and needs mental help.
That's not a strawman, I am simply repeating back to you your argument, which is ad-hominen attack everyone who is not compliant to your opinion. You have stated anybody that doesn't think like you do on China issues is all of these things. Now you are getting upset that you are being shown to have a closed mind that cannot tolerate other opinions, so try and convince your willing audience that your opposition needs mental help. You can either have an open minded sharing of thoughts, or attack those who don't fall into your line of thinking with ad hominen attacks, it's clear what you have chosen.
It's a classic play book of someone who doesn't want to admit that things are more complex or different than they believe. Attack the person instead of analyse the arguments.
Repeating an argument back with mischaracterization is exactly what a straw-man is. Most people grow out of doing it once they realise how infantile it makes them appear.
Unapologetically, some opinions are so vile and revolting that they should not be tolerated. Justifying the military invasion of a peaceful democratic country in order to involuntarily force them under the rule of a genocidal authoritarian regime is one of them.
Screws loose is a kind euphemism for the kind of sick **** that spends their time promoting such fantasies.
Well done Brock for looking up a list of logical fallacies. I'll tell you what, you apologise for your adhominen attack, I will apologise for the mis characterisation. To kick this off: I apologise for the mischaracterisation, I don't actually believe you are so black and white in your opinions as I have said. No offense intended, however please don't call people names instead of arguing for your position.
(edit: unsurprised to not get an apology or reply here...)
No reason to panic.
“With long-term growth expected to come back at some stage, and unemployment remaining low, banks and mortgage-holders should be willing and able to hold on through the downturn.”
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129470098/hundreds-of-wellington-first…
First in the US, their non-farm payrolls report for July has heaped pressure on the Fed with a much larger than expected rise. Their labour market remains hot with employers adding +528,000 jobs in the month, double what analysts had expected.
..but a problem emerges for the second month in a row when looking at third-party data which tracks the number of new employees laid off as well as new layoff events, both of which have soared since May yet which have unexpectedly not been reflected in BLS data.
But even if one ignores outside data sources, a more pressing question emerges when looking at the BLS's own far more detailed, if less closely watched, Household survey. Here, unlike the Establishment Survey, the June jobs change was a far smaller 179K increase, following last month's 315K drop.
And since the Household survey also feeds other closely watched ratios, such as the labor force participation rate, it explains why despite the apparent "surge" in June jobs, the LFP declined for the second month in a row and is now back to levels last seen in 2021.
So what's going on here?
Well, those who read our article from last month will know what's coming next. Those who haven't, will be surprised to learn that something appears to have snapped a few months ago, around March, when the Establishment Survey kept on rising unperturbed, while the Household Survey hit some unexplained brick wall, and hasn't moved at all.
In fact, since March, the Establishment Survey shows a gain of 1.680 million jobs while the Household Survey shows an employment loss of 168K
But wait, there's more, because digging in even deeper, we find that this drop in Household Survey employment is the result of both full-time and part-time jobs. In fact, as shown below, since March, the US has lost 141K full-time employees and 78K part-time employees.
Now I know this is off topic, though just to prove a point.
If you remember I posted on the comments section here a few times, criticising the whole Ukraine war response. I called it a bandwagon.
Remember that? Kids being sent to school dressed in yellow and blue. Your collective outrage and fury towards the evil Russians etc. Mass hysteria in MSM (including this site) drumming up anti Russian sentiment. Demanding that we send more aid, weapons etc. Arm chair generals analysing the likely outcome of Ww3.
Well now here we are, what 3 months later.. Not a peep coming out. Its been forgotten. Yesterdays news. Tumbleweed rolling through town...
That war is still raging and will likely do so for years. Though as it turns out our bandwagon response wasn't really ever that committed to the cause of Ukrainian sovereignty (whatever that is).
I don't condone wanton violence, or Russian aggression. But one thing I can't stand even more is injustice and hypocrisy when conducted by our MSM and nation state. Jumping onto the latest human disaster just to what? Sell a few more add clicks?
3 months later since you dressed up your kids in yellow and blue... And as it turns out no one in NZ really truly cares all that much about the Ukraine...
And kids in gaza are still being bombed on a monthly basis :
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/05/israel-strikes-gaza-amid-…
I think you're missing the point.
The reason the news has dropped off is because the pace of change has dropped right off. There's just not actually that much new stuff to report.
It's nothing to do with how much anyone cares.
Sure the fighting is ongoing but the situation has stayed essentially the same for weeks now.
The pace has definitely slowed but there are interesting developments. Ukraines strikes on the Russian supplies are interesting and likely a key reason why Russian artillery has dropped off. Also the potential counter offensive brewing in the South could be a major turning point. Ukraine has struck most of the bridges connecting Crimea. If they can muster a counter offensive - and the smart money has this happening by September if it’s going to happen - it could be a very bad time for the Russian troops Around Kherson.
The Wehrmacht spring campaign 1942, Von Kleist, recaptured Kharkov. Fact is, in WW2, they took that city twice in a matter of weeks with vastly extended supply lines, whereas Russia today, from right next door has failed to do it once. The thing is though, Russia then eventually prevailed with massive troop sacrifices and heavy artillery from some distance. Russia today has not gone to a similar war footing, but if they start going seriously backwards, they will likely have little hesitation to do so if Putin has sufficient power to order it.
I'm sure. I care too. No one needs to have thier house blown up by cruise missiles.
But the level of MSM bombardment on the issue has all but reduced to a trickle.
My point is the level of care is relative to the level of msms fluff we consume. But the misery persists.
And there are plenty of other issues of equal human tragity that are more or less ignored.
To be fair to the media the situation in Ukraine has stabilised and it's going to be a long grind, the Himars have helped Ukraine a lot so both sides are basically firing missiles at each other without major gains in territory or large-scale casualties. Rather different from in the beginning when it looked like the whole country could fall in a week, or during the siege in Mariupol where the plight of those trapped caused a lot of consternation.
The plight of those poor defenders of democracy right?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Regiment
Cause a lot of consternation for their backers back in Kiev, and the western MSM fluff trying to dress them up like they are the defenders of world peace & democracy.
I don't condone the invasion. But if your Kiev & you govern a resource rich area, populated mainly by ethnic Russians, and this area is right next door to an authoritarian Russian dictator... Then sending in Nazi shooty-boyz to go and terrorise the local Russians is probably going to end up with some kind of response...
"My point is the level of care is relative to the level of msms fluff we consume"
That is certainly true, just look at Covid, we all used to be so scared of it when Covid was in the morning news, the 1pm live broadcast, on radio all day long and of course feature No 1 on the 6 o'clock news. Today, less msm coverage and Covid is a distant memory.
Covid a distant memory? Don't you know anyone off work for a week with covid lately? Or anyone complaining about not feeling 100% better for months after catching it. Or being told by a business to please be patient as they are affected by people off work with covid. I am not sure what planet you live on some times.
yvil,Covid is more nuanced than that,the original variant & delta warranted the intense coverage,the body bags from overseas broadcasts were real,not created in the same film studio as the lunar landings and as it was still unknown,of course it garnered the majority of airtime. No one was forced to watch the 1pm broadcasts,but most did...and deep down would begrudgingly have to accept the the Prime Minister & Ashley Bloomfields communications were exceptional...the ones complaining couldn't help but watch daily.
The body bags from overseas 'broadcasts' were real? It was still unknown? Sorry but I lived in the USA during this so called 'Pandemic' and think about it, did you see a dead body in any of those body bags? I did not see one person die of covid and certainly did not see one in a body bag. You must have mistaken the news for reality.
Fossil lover;Oh no,they walk amongst us...back to your rabbit hole...and yes I know,your research is better than others,we are just brain washed...have you been watching the Sandy Hook trial...you are the ones being taken for a ride by these far right crazy commentators...and yes,it's all about making them rich,long live the American dream...
Going back a bit when Fiji was stricken with covid all of our media were headlining it 24/7. Suddenly NZ got Delta or something. Whatever it was it completely cured Fiji. Because overnight there were no more headlines, scarcely a mention. Bloody shocking selective reporting, pathetic. Schadenenfreude!
Hopefully some cause for contemplation and reflection, rather than knee jerk desperation.
And yes. On a scale of care, I'd wager most people in nz don't lose too much sleep over the Ukrainian plight right now.
Certainly not at the same level as when the bandwagon was in full swing.
Expecting the news cycle to persist for months is always going to end in disappointment. Luckily the actual important western support of sending weapons and ammo and sanctioning Russia hasn't stopped and Ukraine seem to be gaining the momentum as a result.
Some of us are still watching.
Not a source I'm familiar with.
"Overall, we rate The Duran as a Questionable source based on far-right-wing bias, promotion of Russian propaganda, right-wing conspiracies, a lack of transparency, use of poor sources, plagiarism, and failed fact checks."
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-duran/
The Russian's haven't taken anything significant for weeks, their logistics are being blown to shit and Ukraine are slowly moving towards Kherson.
"Ukraine is likely seizing the strategic initiative and forcing Russia to reallocate forces and reprioritize efforts in response to Ukrainian counteroffensive operations"
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
The war is too distant. I'm sure people in NZ are concerned but have become somewhat inured to it. The govt have done their bit for Europe so we can sit back and be satisfied in our response. The effect on NZ inflation due to sanctions and high 35% duty/import tax on Russia goods must have some effect and it would be an interesting exercise for an economist or financial boffin to quantify the effect.
I love it how everyone above got fired up (again) about the Ukraine.
No one read my first post, saw the link and said :
''Oh another kid got blown up in Gaza, that's terrible!'
Seriously what is it about the Ukraine that you are all so attracted to?
(Stuff told me to!)
The one thing China's display of force will do in the region is trigger a sudden, sharp buildup of military defense capabilities from Japan and South Korea all the way to Indonesia (not to mention Australia). China seems to have made the same mistake Russia did by invading Ukraine. That just expanded NATO. Fear of Chinese over-reaction is doing the same in this region. Indeed:
Translation: PHNOMPEN, August 5 - RIA Novosti. Chinese authorities are ready to strengthen strategic cooperation with Russia amid growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Friday at a meeting with Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. "Russia invariably adheres to the One China principle, opposing any encroachment on the sovereignty of our country," he stressed at a meeting with Lavrov in Phnom Penh. "In turn, Beijing is ready to strengthen strategic cooperation with the Russian Federation so that together we can more effectively defend the international system in which the UN plays a key role, as well as the order based on the norms of generally accepted international law," Wang Yi added. Link
NATO seeks to prevent Eurasian challenger to US world dominance, admits ex CIA chief Mike Pompeo
Neoconservative former CIA Director and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo admitted that the NATO cartel seeks to “prevent the formation of a pan-Eurasian colossus” that could challenge Washington’s empire.
The United States must remain “the dominant force in the world,” and “for an awfully long time to come,” he insisted.
Pompeo made it clear that the new cold war between the US-EU-NATO bloc on one side and the Eurasian bloc led by China and Russia on the other is a battle over “economic hegemony,” and is rooted in control over fossil fuels and other resources.
“We must prevent the formation of a Pan-Eurasian colossus incorporating Russia, but led by China,” Pompeo implored. “To do that, we have to strengthen NATO, and we see that nothing hinders Finland and Sweden’s entry into that organization.”
Russian propaganda view : Our ‘Rhythmically Dancing’ Physical Real Economy
Which begs the question? What's Lacking Right Now Is the Fed's Will To Act
Yes, autocrat Hun Sen will fit right in with Lavrov and Wang and fellow travellers, like Lukashenko, al-Assad, even Orban and Erdogan. But that combination of has-beens that is hardly an inspiring group! (But I can imagine Trump and Pompeo being among friends with them.)
David, the personalities are NOT the drivers here; circumstances create them.
If it hadn't been for the repressive Versailles conditions (imposed by the echelon which your standard of material consumption can trace itself directly to), Hitler would have had zero traction.
If it hadn't been for the lie (that economic growth can on go forever on a finite planet) being made front-and-centre of our societal narrative, we wouldn't have seen serial liars (Trump, Johnson) elected.
Cause and causal have to be clearly identified. Some dictators have established themselves because we - the echelon which is you and me - took away enough of their resources, enough of their surplus energy, that local systems disintegrated. Some, we - via the CIA - established directly as our agents-of-repression.
Some folk have trouble with this, and are vanishing down a virtue-signalling, we-love-everybody (but we're still living at their expense) rabbit hole. RNZ are the epitome of that cohort.
Pozsar essentially saying the Fed will force the world into a depression on purpose and have no other option. Fed funds rates to 4-5% (and hold for years) to remove excess aggregate demand.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-02/pozsar-says-l-shaped…
Geoge Gammon provides a good summary if you have a spare 10min.
Ultimately that was what the depression was though....human sentiment. You have the roaring 20's then everyone turns pessimistic and you have a hangover for years (and we've just lived through the equivalent of the roaring 20's if you look at the wealth created for the top 1, 10, 20% of society and the associated inequality - we're at the same as just before 1929).
Central banks can start throwing money at the economy, but unless people have confidence that the future will be better than the present, then capitalism stops working (i.e. why lend/extend credit if you don't think it will be paid back because the future looks worse than the present). Capitalism has to have cooperation and confidence - if those two factors are reduce or removed, the system locks up and we go into depression mode (aka the 1930's). Both cooperation and confidence levels globally are plummeting at present.
Anti Labour / Ardern pro Nat / Act followers are praying for a 'Technical recession'...even if it sneaks in by .01% hence all the 'country going to hell in a hand cart' rhetoric. Election is not for 12 more months,so a lot of water to go under the bridge...the biggest impediment to 'getting on with it' as many call for is just to stop whining and have a positive outlook, summers around the corner, low unemployment, work for any who wants it.
I am guessing if JK was still in charge and the circumstances were identical, the Hosk would be accentuating the positive.."nothing to see here,happy days.."..but as his ego has never got over the fact that Prime Minister Ardern isn't interested in going on his show and the world hasn't ended because of that,he seems to devote his life to being negative...and as he has the highest rating show in NZ,he drags the populace down into this negative vortex.If Ardern cured cancer and found a way to turn water into petrol/diesel he would still find an issue.Keep smiling everyone, for many out there the crisis probably revolves around their favourite brand of foie gras is unobtainable... those less fortunate are getting some assisstance from the government,more than they would with ACT.
sparrow,funny you should say that,I tried to google Newstalkzb's demographic,couldn't find it anywhere...I am sure they keep that close to their chest as Hosk likes to portray that he is the voice of the common hardworking 'Kiwi' when in fact he is probably just stoking the fears and predjudices of folk born before 1965....and I say that as someone who was.
It takes a special sort of idiot to believe that the current Labour Government know WTF they're doing ...
... cost of living payments for folks in Iceland , Denmark , Philippiness ...
Cost of living $ 116.67 payments to deceased people ... does Robbo think they'll go shopping in the dead of the night ?
It takes a special sort of idiot not to listen, or to think it through.
I was on a Local Authority once, and came across the same kind of ignorance; people saying they had a zero rates bill mailed to them with a 20cent stamp.
It wasn't cost effective to identify those and lift them; was easier to let them go out. But those who got them - being apparently incapable of wider thought - would point to 20cents 'wasted'.
Most people think very small - it think is the right word....
If the figures don't fit the narrative, change the figures.
....abandon inflation target in radical overhaul of Bank of England....suggest early discussions include focusing mandate on nominal GDP instead....Andrew Bailey would be told to abandon the Bank of England’s 2pc inflation target under a radical plan to reform its mandate and boost the economy
Over the past 50 years, almost every government has overseen lower economic growth than its predecessor – even as it has promised the opposite. That’s according to figures produced for this column by Kevin Albertson, a professor of economics at Manchester Metropolitan University. He analysed national income per person, adjusted for inflation, and then calculated a yearly rate of GDP growth for each prime minister. The end results are the sort of ugly truth Britain badly needs.
This is half a century of an economy becoming ever more stagnant, even as its leaders point excitedly to any passing ripple. And those ripples have normally meant more debt: Albertson’s analysis shows that every extra £1 of real GDP growth between Thatcher and the great banking crash came with nearly £2 of borrowing by households and government. Link
Ah Maraetai. Many nights spent down there having fish and chips with uni friends. Now it's too expensive to travel out there given transport costs, so no one gets the benefit of my dollars - not the petrol station, not the takeaway bar or their suppliers. Truly the world's most liveable city when it's so expensive to live here that you can't even travel across it.
That's the next step for me. It's too hard on mental health to not be able to access things that are otherwise free - dark skies, time with friends with bad food and watching satellites, etc. Plus wide open spaces do wonders for your moods when the beach is so pretty.
And here is the standard property prices double every 10 years rubbish from Church: https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/41943
*/Amazing how they've just happened to cherry pick the years where mortgage rates went from 20% to 2%....what about the 80 years before that?
(note that across the anglosphere house prices were essentially flat in real terms from 1900-approx 1990...from where bubbles started forming and popped in some places in the 2000's...just no NZ (yet))
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