A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; Westpac dumps some fees, GDP rise beats most forecasts, new house building slows in Auckland, Morton gets Beijing gig, swaps firm, NZD holds low, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
HSBC raised their floating rate by +45 bps today to 6.79%. Nelson Building Society raised their by +30 bps to 7.25%.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
We had noted some TD rises from Gold Band Finance. But in fact there were more that we missed, so our tables are updated with them all now..

A NEW VIRTUE? NO, JUST MATCHING
Westpac said it is culling a range of fees, nine of them in fact, involving home loans, personal loans, and personal overdrafts. Their home loan establishment fee ($140) and documentation fee ($50) are included, but readers should note that both ANZ and Kiwibank had already done away with these fees so Westpac is late to the party with these.

EASILY AVOIDING RECESSION
Economic activity rose +1.7% in June quarter from a year ago, on surging demand in the country's service industries. That was a big improvement from the -0.2% fall in the first quarter. The consensus estimate was for a +1% rise in Q2, so this revealed a strong upside. The RBNZ had forecast a +1.8% rise in August, Westpac +1.6%, Kiwibank +1.1%, BNZ +1.4%, ASB +0.8% , and ANZ just +0.4%. The economists that missed getting this close each said that this result isn't an indicator of what is to come. The ASB economists now see the OCR rising to 4.25% as its cycle peak. Remember it is at 3.0% now so more grunty rises to come.

STILL LEAKING AWAY
The RBNZ monitors residential investment in its M10 series. That showed really strong growth in the sector in 2021, but it is leaking away in 'real' terms in 2022, falling -1.4% in the year to June 2022. This data might be a bit dated, but it does validate other more up-to-date markers (like the construction completion certificate data mentioned in the next item).

NEW BUILDS IN AUCKLAND SAG
The number of new homes built in Auckland over the past 12 months fell by -10.5% which means -1500 fewer are in the market than expected. Some consented aren't making it off the plans.

IMPORTING INFLATION
The RBNZ's sectoral model updates the tradable/nontradable inflation monitoring (M1). Tradable inflation is was up to 8.6% in June compared to the overall 7.3%. That indicates we are now importing inflation, and a falling exchange rate isn't helping.

TOUGH POLLING
The latest TaxpayersUnion/Curia political poll suggests that the Labour/Greens coalition would lose an election now, and Nation with the support of Act would have the numbers. National is at 37% in this poll and Act at 12% and that would translate into 63 House seats. 54% of those surveyed say the country is heading in the wrong direction, but just 32% of people thought it was heading in the right direction. These are record lows.

MFAT MANAGER GETS KEY TOP GIG
The Government as appointed a career diplomat as its new Ambassador to China. Grahame Morton is a Senior Diplomat with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. He has served as High Commissioner to India, Principal Adviser on Americas and Asia, and as the divisional manager of North Asia Division. He was also the lead negotiator of the NZ-Singapore Enhanced partnership and led the whole of government New Zealand China Capable Public Sector Program.

RELENTLESS SMALL RISES MOUNT UP
Stats NZ reported that sea levels rose faster in 2020 at almost +5 mm for the year, up from the 1995/2014 baseline period to be about +23 cm higher than in 1905 when reliable tidal records started. For old-school readers, that is about a foot higher in 115 years. The slow rise allows time for adaption - if we take the opportunity and make the investment.

HOT BIDDING
There was a very well supported Government bond tender today, with 132 bids entered worth $1.385 bln. They were bidding for only $400 mln on offer in three tranches. The April 2027 $200 mln went to only one big bidder, leaving 49 others unsatisfied. They won it all at 3.92%, which was lower than the prior event two weeks ago at 3.97%.

GOOD AUSSIE JOBS REPORT
Australia reported its August labour market data today and that showed a good +59,000 expansion in full-time jobs, and a fall in part-time jobs. The AUD firmed. It also showed a small rise in their jobless rate to 3.5%. (The June NZ jobless rate was 3.3%.)

BIGGEST MONTHLY DEFICIT ON RECORD
Japan ran its biggest single-month trade deficit on record in August as imports surged on high energy costs and a slump in the yen, exposing the economy's vulnerability to external price pressures. Imports rose +50% in a year driven almost exclusively by energy imports. Their cost in yen ballooned because the value of the yen fell. Exports rose +22%.

SWAP RATES FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates are probably slightly higher today on the better-than-expected GDP result. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp to 3.62% which is its highest since April 2015. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.67% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 2.68% and its highest in a month. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.03%, up +2 bps but below the earlier RBNZ fix for this bond at 4.05% which was up +5 bps. The UST 10 year is now at 3.42% and down -1 bp from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES RECOVER, SORT OF
Wall Street ended up +0.3% with a final Wednesday flurry after struggling all session. Tokyo is up +0.5% in ongoing trade today. Hong Kong is up +0.3%. But Shanghai is down -0.8% in their Wednesday morning trade, unhindered so far by the typhoon warning. The ASX200 is up +0.6% in early afternoon trade. But teh NZX50 is slipping -0.1% in late trade here.

GOLD DOWN AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down another -US$8 from this time yesterday to US$1,694/oz.

NZD HOLDS LOWER
The Kiwi dollar got no material boost from the GDP result and is now at 60.1 USc and holding most of yesterday's retreat. Against the AUD we are weaker at 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we are a little firmer at 60.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is unchanged at 69.7.

BITCOIN FALLS AGAIN
Bitcoin has fallen again to US$20,078 and down a further -1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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