Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the momentum building to avoid Russian oil and gas supplies is now starting to be quite impressive.
But first, American jobless claims last week were a very low +156,000 taking the total number of people on these benefit to just 1.225 mln and the lowest level ever recorded and half what it was this time last year (which was also historically low). Labour market pressure in the US remains very high.
Going the other way, American mortgage interest rates are rising fast. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.7% this week, the highest since July 2007, up from 6.29% last week and 3.01% a year ago. That's according to a survey of lenders by mortgage giant Freddie Mac. Their 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.96%, up from 5.44% last week and 2.28% a year ago.
South Korean business confidence fell sharply in August and back to pre-pandemic levels. But to be fair it has been the elevated prior two years that have been unusually positive. The current confidence level is what they were used to from 2004 to 2020.
Singapore reported its producer prices rose +17.3% in the year to August, although they slipped slightly from July, so the heat is starting to go out of this surge.
In China, they are about to start another Golden Week holiday so data and activity there will be a bit more restrained next week. Their news will tend to be political as the Communist Party holds it two big meetings.
But stresses can't be avoided. Investors dumped shares and bonds of Chinese property developers yesterday after a media report that CIFI Holdings had defaulted, adding to worries over the crisis-stricken real estate sector. Their Hong Kong-listed shares plunged 32% to a record low as of the market close yesterday, after credit intelligence provider Reorg reported that the Chinese developer had missed payment on certain non-standard debt. The company itself is remaining staunch.
The movement of business out of China is on full display in Vietnam. In the July-September quarter they say their GDP was almost +14% higher than the same quarter a year ago. And that was on top of an almost +8% surge in Q2. Exports to the US are a key driver. But a sharp rise in personal consumption also contributed materially.
Germany reported that its September consumer inflation rate touched +10% and is up matching the UK now (on the same basis).
And the German government has announced a major energy cost relief plan that could cost up to €200 bln. They are terming it a 'defensive shield' including a petrol price brake and a cut in VAT on the fuel.
Meanwhile, Norwegian exports of oil and gas are running at record levels. And China is diverting more fuel to Europe too. Heat pump sales are booming in Europe too, many sourced from China.
And Japan and Malaysia have reached a deal for natural gas that would lessen Japan's reliance on Russia.
In Australia their Federal Government reported a sharply improved fiscal performance in the year to June 2022. It was a significant positive surprise. Their underlying cash deficit* came in at -AU$32 bln, representing -1.4% of their GDP. That was almost $48 bln less than the forecast in their 2022/23 March Budget. It's a deficit that narrowed sharply from the record deficit for the 2020/21 year of -AU$134 bln, -6.5% of GDP.
And electricity major AGL has sharply brought forward is decommissioning of coal-fired electricity generation. It is a major move there, pressed by activist shareholders.
There was another -10% fall in the cost of shipping containers internationally last week. This dive is fast, and takes prices back to just +8% above the prior 5-year average.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.77% and +4 bps firmer than this time yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve is more inverted at -44 bps. But their 1-5 curve has turned positive again, just, at +1 bp. And their 30 day-10yr curve is more positive +124 bps. The Australian ten year bond is lower, down -2 bps at 3.94%. The China Govt ten year bond is up +1 bp at 2.77% and a two month high. The New Zealand Govt ten year will start today at 4.22%, down -14 bps after yesterday's UST drop.
Wall Street is down sharply today in its Thursday session, with the S&P500 down -2.9% in late trade and slipping into a loss for the week so far. Overnight European markets all posted losses of about -1.7%. Yesterday Tokyo ended up +1.0%, Hong Kong slipped -0.5%, and Shanghai slipped -0.1%. The ASX200 ended its Thursday session up +1.4% while the NZX50 ended up +0.7%.
The price of gold will open today at US$1659/oz. This is down a mere -US$1 from this time yesterday.
And oil prices start today +50 USc firmer at just over US$82/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has risen to be just on US$88/bbl. The price of natural gas is falling, now at a two month low, as the Europeans make steady progress in building reserves and alternate sources from Russia.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at just over 57.1 USc and marginally firmer than this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are firmer at 87.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -½c 58.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just 67.4, and down -20 bps in a day.
The bitcoin price is now at US$19,473 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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127 Comments
Don't you sometimes get that feeling that trying to envisage an OCR level that'd save us is more akin to guessing which note of "pop goes the weasel" the clown is going to jump out of the box on.
Thr clowns are already everywhere. The analogy I was thinking was that of financial storm is like that carried out by hurricane Ian. I like the heading and the use of words "working through"
8% guaranteed.. no hiding from that
That is speculative hype. It is something you want to happen but have no control over.
The forces driving inflation are not static. There is no perfect OCR level. Almost certainly though it doesn't make sense to have 8% inflation and a 3% OCR.
Are we the clowns believing the OCR, the RBNZ, and government's will "save" us?
"And the German government has announced a major energy cost relief plan that could cost up to €200 bln. They are terming it a 'defensive shield' including a petrol price brake and a cut in VAT on the fuel." Evidence that there continues to be a significant level of denial amongst German/European politicians. While the war is an immediate threat, so too is climate change and none of these measures seem to consider the second threat.
With the already excessively hot summers, and record floods in places, do they still think climate change will somehow just stabilise or go away?
Grandma freezing to death over winter is far more immediate than that 1 in 100 year storm becoming a 1 in 20 year event.
Which of those events is more significant, though?
For Grandma?
Objectively speaking.
I think society answered that during COVID. Grandma was worth about $60,000,000,000.
Jeez, no wonder we don't want her freezing to death then.
Head and nail RP!
This is it people... the gun-barrel were staring down now largely stems from saving the oldies - forsaking the younguns for decades to come
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-nz-analysis-reveals-vaxs-life-sa…
"..A new analysis confirms vaccination is the single best way to slash the odds of dying from Covid-19 – with those who'd received one or no doses facing a risk some two-thirds higher.
But the Ministry of Health's just-released report sadly also showed what modellers and epidemiologists have long warned: Covid-19's disproportionate danger to Māori, Pacific and poorer people...."
What about poor old grandpa, does no one have any sentiment for him?
In contemporary society it's not okay to be pale, stale and male.
classic bias. What makes you think grandpa is pale?
... or male ... times have changed ... as might have grandma ...
Objectively speaking.
We are already seeing a mass extinction event Play out. With current extinction rates many hundreds of Times Higher than observed geological averages.
We should have let cv19 rip, no financial stimulus and accepted the natural selection that followed.
Less grandma's to warm use Less unsustainable energy we don't have.
Then used that stimulus money to push development of renewable energy solutions.
You're all Lucky I'm not your dictator...
At least Granma has the option to isolate, take vaccines, whatever.
A proper dictator would have been building COVID concentration camps. Relatively speaking you are a softy, FluffyBunny.
Climate change is not a threat. Extreme weather events are and have been happening forever. Murray down here in good ole productive Southland we could use a nice hot summer, to fatten me lambs and make the grass grow. Hint, climate is always changing, so adapt.
The argument is how much we're going to make the place inhospitable.
Unfortunately solving a medium term issue like climate change is going to be overshadowed by more immediate concerns.
Although economic output should fall off, so maybe that'll help the planet.
Climate change is not considered a threat by those who believe it means having a "nice hot summer" every once in a while. Unfortunately for them, that's not what it means.
That is literally what climate change means in some places. But which ones? Climate will become more hospitable for human habitation in all sorts of places and less hospitable in others. Maybe trees will grow in Antarctica again as they used to. There will be opportunities all over the place. Possibly not Kiribati or the Maldives, but definitely in NZ.
Which opportunities will "definitely" present themselves in NZ as a result of climate change, do you think?
I guess we'll have an abundance of water while others are thirsty.
By "abundance of water", you mean like Nelson?
filthy hippies, they need a good wash
... is " hippies " still a thing ? ... I thought they'd got political & joined the Greens Party ...
Yeah, trees might grow in Antartica again, hooray! But then sea levels will be 8m higher or so and we will have flooded almost every major city in the world, which means people would have to move inland, which means the built infrastructure has to be rebuilt to house those people, which means less food growing land and more atmosphere warming... but that's unlikely to happen anytime soon or all at once, so a staged retreat across centuries may be manageable.
That'll be good for house prices tho. At least 'high up house' prices. 🤣
Sea levels are constant. Plate tectonics will dictate which land rises and which falls below the ocean. 8m will take an awful long time.
Sweet Jesus. Is that you Profile?
Not sure if this is trolling or ignorance. If it is the latter, then I recommend a read of this which accounts for both sea level rise and tectonic effects Sea levels and sea-level rise | NIWA
NIWA have a collection of alarmists. If I recall correctly there is only some access to the data on which they based their sea level rise report. Access to the underlying data is typical of many man made CC alarmists reports/papers.
There have been a few posters on here who don't seem to understand what happens when a large ice shelf, currently on land, melts and returns to the sea.
Worrying.
And they speak as if they are the authority on the subject
Fossil(ised),
Extreme weather events are and have been happening forever. That statement would on the face of it, suggest that you have studied this, but i rather doubt it. my guess is that you are using this as a fig leaf to cover your ignorance of the subject.
Yes, of course extreme climate events have always happened, but NOT in such a short time frame and not with 7+ billion people on the planet. Take your head out of the sand, read what your own farming bodies say and even if only for your own farming business, do a little homework.
Argue the topic, and cut out the personal abuse. I am, however, glad that the personal abuse is not moderated on these pages, as it lets us make our own judgements on the people who contribute.
The only time my head is stuck in the sand is digging toheroa. My homework is observation, not trusting 'climate scientists' manipulated data, based on unproven allegations. As witnessed by the climate model predictions, that not one climate 'scientist' has got right since climate change become 'their' issue (not mine).
My ignorance stems from living in the US during the Covid scam, driving around empty country hospitals, with nobody dying 'of' Covid, watching an evil little doctor tell the world to take his experimental gene therapy. Follow the science he said. And that science is no good.
Predicting the future 'climate' on CO2 emissions is totally ludicrous, with so many other variants. I will get a permit and you can come bury your head in the sand with me and dig a toey.
Your ignorance is on full display in the ridiculous comments you make.
Agree, I looked out the window and it's raining today and not much warmer than yesterday so climate change is a hoax.
Quick favour to ask, in between your digging for toheroa sessions would you mind just "doing some observations" and work out how to cure cancer for us, and maybe invent some new more efficient engines so I don't have to pay so much for petrol. The scientists and doctors are useless at that sort of thing. Thanks buddy.
You don't cure cancer. You prevent cancer. Our poor indoctrinated western world doctors know little about 'health'. What will be interesting in the recent clinical trial using humans to test their mRNA gene therapy against a corona virus, will it have an adverse effect of rising cancer rates. Not to mention infections, blood clots and an inability to fight even a common cold.
My advise to you since you asked is avoid western world doctors, eat real food grown organically from your garden, (avoid grocery stores), get a little exercise and sunlight each day and avoid the stress of reading this website. Your immunity will do the rest.
Maybe you don't cure cancer, but a significant chunk of our Healthcare system does...many cancers are very survivable these days. Most cancers have no link to immune systems as far as I'm aware (several are HPV related, so maybe if you're able to fend off viruses they are a special case).
A decent diet and exercise are obviously a good idea, but nice to be able to treat things too. It is not an either/or situation.
The climate has always changed as does the weather every day. They are two totally different animals.
you'll soon start acknowledging it when the hordes descend on Southland
You should perhaps study up a little on previous mass extinction events... There is a correlation between rapid temperature changes and massive loss in biodiversity.
Just because, in the view of your insignificant lifespan, the effects are not immediately catastrophic. Does not mean that the pace of change is not concerningly rapid from a geological history perspective, or indeed potentially terminal.
The problem with human's is that we are universally selfish and tend to over estimate our individual importance and self worth compared to The eons of Time.
The question we should ask is not how bad or good Will this event affect me now, but how can I Live a good Life with a positive Net worth during these events. How will my life now be viewed in 100 years Time.
My view is that saying 'well I like Hot summers', is potentially somewhat overly focused on the short term.
Extraordinary that this comment has so many likes, on a site supposedly frequented by educated people.
Along with (or perhaps slightly after these days) nuclear war, human-induced climate change is the single greatest threat facing humanity.
FL: Is there some reason that you think you know better than climate scientists, who are virtually unanimous that human activity is warming the planet to dangerous levels? Do you routinely disregard the consensus view of trained scientists?
Brings into sharp focus the fact there is no real intention among the movers and shakers to change course from burning everything they can get their hands on. That growth and burning is incompatible with human survival, is outside the parameters of the intellectual capacity of our elites.
"Human survival" is an interesting card to play given that being able to be warm and dry is kind of basic need for human survival in the short term as well.
I guess at some point someone is going to have to quantify how many people we knowingly kill in the here and now to appease concerns about something decades down the line. Is there a number we're working to?
Jacida's World Government mates have already decided on those numbers. The only trick is how to implement the methods which will achieve them. The first attempt looks like a fail at this stage. But they will not give up easily.
It's not decades down the line, it's now.
OK. So how many people do you knowingly kill or commit to poverty then? What is the expendable number of lives we're talking? Talking in absolutes or platitudes is easy, anyone can do that, it's free. Doing stuff like making it harder for people to access energy or heating, or harder to get to work or afford food? That's the hard bit.
People never seem to want to talk about this, or what it might cost individuals who are already facing extreme living pressures. But expect us to take sudden drastic action and avoid what that actually means or entails, and how society might function. So what is the collateral damage in real, measurable terms?
My eyes see RED, everywhere, in stocks.
Not crypto. A nice green week. Around 5% in NZD
Inflation?
shipping costs down, fuel down
NZD down, costs up?
Local costs of imported products are a product of their international price and the currency.
Certainly the weakening dollar is inflationary, but that will be counter balanced by the falling international price of these goods and services.
You're assuming we have steady supply of goods. Anecdotally it would seem that the pre-Xmas stock-ups are not happening, based on international shipping numbers and bookings. So while the price of goods may be lower, the availability question may also drive inflation.
Let me help you out of your dream. Over the month September the NZD fell from 0.611 to 0.571 for a US $. The Nymex RBOB Gasoline stayed roughly flat over the whole month (2.38 US$ /gallon to 2.41 US$/gallon). The counter ballance for petrol and diesel pricing is not there for Kiwi consumers so the falling NZD is pushing inflation further up.
Why select one month? How about the past 6 months? Inflation is measured quarterly and annually, not month to month.
The price we are paying for petrol in Auckland has hardly shifted at all in the past 5-6 months, despite the significantly weakening NZD.
I see that the government has just announced that it will be reinstating the fuel taxes in January. This modifies my opinion. I had been expecting the government to extend, in election year.
Having said that, will the per litre cost of 91 be higher than $3.50 (it’s June ‘22 peak) in Auckland in June 2023? If not, then the annual rate of inflation as at June ‘23 will be 0% or less.
Rubbish. Every supplier we deal with has increased prices. In some cases a new increased price list has come each month. Items we have been selling for years with no increase in price are up 50 percent plus at the wholesalers.
We are a wholesaler of product, and are currently sitting on double the stock we normally would have, so we are importing less moving forward. So this tempers things a bit, except that we are experiencing 60% increased demand right now. Not sure how long that demand will last, but we are being very cautious in our purchases. On average our purchase price is up 6%, and some of our suppliers are talking up further January rises of a similar amount.
Just my own experience, pretty sure we arent alone in some of this.
Still running at 10% in Europe according to this very article.
Retail spending still higher than last year, even inflation-adjusted.
The deflation is still a while off because the deflationary activity hasn’t actually started. Heard an interview with Flight Centre management yesterday- record numbers of Kiwis looking to spend on a holiday. The NZD continuing to sink. This inflation is not going anywhere.
Inflationary forces in Europe a very different thing to inflationary forces down under.
We import stuff from Europe, if prices are rising there and our dollar is depreciating will it not cause inflation here?
Italy winning again: Italy August PPI 50.5 y/y versus previous 45.9% Link
I would be cautious about fuel being down… the futures market is highly politically and recessionary fear driven at the moment. No spare capacity coming online and US SPR being heavily drawn upon…
But the recessionary fear is well placed, not some baseless fear.
Agree yes but fear driven markets almost always overreact in comparison to the actual underlying fundamental drivers of physical use. I just think there is a big disconnect between the synthetic price of oil and the physical demand. Just my view though.
My point is that you, like many other commentators (eg Andreas Steno Larsen) are so desperate to call the deflationary turn ahead of everyone else that you're ignoring 9 out of 10 pieces of evidence suggesting that inflation is persisting. I get the idea - rate rises => demand destruction => deflation. But why call the deflation imminent when we haven't even got to the demand destruction phase? We are still so, so far from a realistic revaluation of assets. We need either raging inflation, which will probably destroy many democracies if it persists another year, or another bigger wave of company writedowns and a real estate crash.
TL;DR: You can't call the peak of inflation until Tesla shares have fallen 90%.
I assume this wasn't aimed at me Sam as I am very much in your camp.
I am not calling deflation.
I am calling a significant fall in the rate of inflation (by mid 2023).
Totally different things.
Mid 2023 is looking a long way off with the current inflation. We could be totally wrecked by then at the current rate of "Control" by the RBNZ.
Until a few months ago I was also in the 'disinflation is coming soon' camp, but I've changed my view. The Bank of England response to bail out the Bond market with fresh cash is another reminder that this is what govts/banks do at the end of the debt cycle - they go with destroying the currency while saying they are "restoring stability".
Only a matter of time .... lack of investment in new wells will ensure we hit a shortage.
Shipping costs are down because demand is down, at least in the bulk cargo market
Yes and demand will fall further as many countries enter recessions.
Yes - a positive for us exporters, but a sign of bigger problems
Turns out i wasn't the only one thinking it's surprising the Tories are still as popular as they are...
Labour Surges to Record 17-point Poll Lead
Con: 28% (-4 from 21-22 Sep)
Lab: 45% (+5)
Lib Dem: 9% (=)
Green: 7% (-1)
Reform UK: 3% (=)
SNP: 4% (-1)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/uk-labour-surges-to-…
Summary: How do we get from sterling issues to gilts falling part? Rapid external tightening is the beginning, but it goes deeper than that. Monetary functions of the eurodollar require especially sovereign bonds take on the store of value role, provided those bonds stay close to the concepts of safety and liquidity.
Something very important is going on in the pension fund industry. Why was the Bank of England forced to intervene as the lender of last resort? Is something going seriously wrong? A thread. Link
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/liz-truss-radio-interviews-disaster-b2177991.html
This article sums up the UK mood at present. In NZ, National need to think very hard about their top rate tax cut plans. It seems that the majority of people do actually believe in fairness rather than blatant self interest. Financial stability and competence is also valued over political gimmicks.
The National policy would be perfectly defendable if kept the top tax rate where it is. Such a simple opportunity to just instantly nix 90% of the criticism of their tax package.
Yes. The majority of people are now looking for a change of Government at the next election, but we need to be confident that National/Act intend to improve NZ for all and not just a small minority at the top. If they look like they will follow the UK Conservative example, I would stick with the current lot.
I'm not sure 'everyone loses' is a better argument than 'only a small portion of people win' but that's increasingly my view of what the 2023 election will end up being.
Similar to how Labour improved the lot for the middle-to-lower classes.. it'll be bloody interesting to see the stats on how things have change over labours term in government for:
- Number of people in poverty
- Number of people on the hospital waiting list
- Number of people on the housing waiting list
- Number of staff vacancies for hospitals, police, teachers
- Number of mental health referrals, number of suicides
- Crime rate etc..
Labour have been disappointing for sure, but I don't see National reversing this for the least well off with their current policy settings. They have signalled that their priorities are the removal of the housing tax changes and reduction in the top rate of income tax. What we need is a competent government that can address your bullet points as their top priorities.
There will be no cash to address those after tax cuts. Instead we will be undergoing another term of frozen budgets while the 'fiscally responsible' party tries to correct the damage they have done to the budget.
They would also have to ditch the 'reinvigorating the investment property market' tax and other rule changes, but yes, if they did do that it would be looking rather reasonable...
Aside from all their proposed policy changes, yeah they don't look too bad :P - I think 95% of National and Act's current platform is to undo anything Labour recently did isn't it?
... send them a message : for the first term of their government , just shift the tax brackets at the bottom ... leave the top rates where they are , for now . .
That'll take the sting out of Labour's criticism of it ... and proportionally , the lower income earners will be better off than the wealthy ... the wealthy dont need tax cuts ...
Agreed, the focus should be on those at the bottom being hit by tax-increases-by-stealth as a result of bracket-creep. Labour cynically frames this as a 'tax cut' in the same vein as getting rid of the top tax rate.
They are not the same thing.
.. it's in Labour's DNA to allow bracket creep ... Micheal Cullen was forced by the PM to marginally shift rates , lollipop cuts , after 7 years of creep ... too little , too late ...
It seems that the majority of people do actually believe in fairness
Yes and this highlights the dangers in letting the countries leader be picked by paying members of a political party. The candidates don't care what the public think, only the rump of Tory party members. The could have gone with Rishi and avoided this mess. Liz has another 2 years to start worrying what the average voter thinks.
Wow, less than 30% support. Nice to see more than 2 parties start to feature. The UK had become too polarised into Tory and Labour, they would do much better having to form alliances with other parties to govern, it leads to more centrist policies.
new week, new poll, labour now have 33 point lead.
23-25 Sep -> 28-29 Sept
Con 28 -> 21
Lab 45 -> 54
LibDem 9 -> 7
SNP 4 -> 5
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/6ukuklig5f/TheTimes_VI_BestPM_220929_W.pdf
Note that the UK is first past the post and not PR. If this poll turns into reality at the election the Tory party would be wiped out. Not sure if Luxon would be sending Liz Truss such admiring tweets if that happens.
Iran undergoing a change of leadership?
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-septem…
I think it's another attempt at a "color revolution" (American spelling) and I don't think it's success is imminent. The less we hear about it in news the less well its going.
You think Khamenei dissapearance is American doing? Poisoned by the CIA?
As far as I know it's not really the CIA's style to poison people this prominent, the goal would be to at least make it appear (to a least a level of plausible deniability) that population decided to overthrow him. He's 83 and possibly in poor health and there is a trend of not showing ones self just because Western media request it.
I really don't know but color revolutions can escalate into violence and if your frail you don't want the crowd and what it conceals outside your residence and their are other factions to hide from. I think he will turn up.
In Australia their Federal Government reported a sharply improved fiscal performance in the year to June 2022. It was a significant positive surprise. Their underlying cash deficit* came in at -AU$32 bln, representing -1.4% of their GDP.
The lucky country?
Australia’s resources are being stolen by foreign companies: Pauline Hanson | Alan Jones
Rudd's downfall: written in The Australian
In late April 2010 Kevin Rudd took two steps that in combination would bring him down: the postponement of the emissions trading scheme and the announcement of his government's intention to introduce a mining industry super profits tax.
On April 24 the paper reported that "a massive new tax", which mining executives would regard as a "thermo-nuclear option", was in prospect. On April 30 it reported on "the fury" of the miners and the savage likely reduction in their profits of what was called a "double tax". On May 3 it reported that Rudd intended to "milk the mining boom" with his $10 billion tax. On May 4 it reported that Rudd had been accused by the mining industry of not understanding "the real world" and that at least $9 billion had been wiped off the sharemarket value of mining companies. On May 5 it reported that Rudd was "locked in tense discussions" with mining executives while a further $7 billion of share value was wiped out. On May 6 it reported that in Perth Rudd had been involved in a "bare-knuckle brawl" with 30 of the nation's "most powerful executives" and that Rio Tinto had "shelved" a planned $11 billion investment. The paper's daily front-page coverage of the mining super profits tax continued remorselessly in this vein for the next six weeks. Finally, on June 17, it reported that mining companies wanted guarantees from the Australian government of the kind they required when operating in "developing and unstable countries".
The Old World Order Is About To Collapse
Link not working
Thanks fixed now -
Best world demography in the the developed world - France, USA...and NZ
That link is not working BW but the globalisation point is a no brainer after the impacts and effects of the pandemic. Business's at all levels all over the world have been forced to take a long look at the risks associated with long supply chains. Military logistics experts are probably the most cognisant of those risks, but commercial business's seem to be blase towards them?
Nothing to do with the pandemic..
Disagree. The impacts of the pandemic highlighted them when the shipping companies mothballed their ships, the loss of truck drivers due to pandemic restrictions and so on. They were follow on consequences, or secondary risks but the pandemic still highlighted them.
On the scale that Zeihan is talking, the pandemic is just a final straw that exposes the underlying weakness.
American mortgage interest rates are rising fast. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.7% this week, the highest since July 2007, up from 6.29% last week and 3.01% a year ago.
American mortage interest rates are rising fast is an understatement.
Since last year mortage rate has more doubled in USA, which is massive and still we are still in middle of rising rate so is bound to go up from here.....which will be disaster unless government and reserve bank try to bail out again and thereby add to reason,why we are facing a disaster in the first place and aggravate further.
So reserve bank and governments are doomed by their own doing.
And oil prices start today +50 USc firmer at just over US$82/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has risen to be just on US$88/bbl. The price of natural gas is falling, now at a two month low, as the Europeans make steady progress in building reserves and alternate sources from Russia.
So Tiwai stays plugged in, as more profitable??
So Europe is going to survive cutting Mr Putin gas supply off
He might not though as what he has done is slowly starting to impact on ordinary Russian people who had been trying to pretend everything was Ok
Doesn't sound good.
The eurozone’s financial system is facing “severe risks” from the chaos gripping global markets, the European Central Bank said in an unprecedented warning as Germany unveiled a €200bn (£177bn) borrowing binge. The institution told the region’s banks to prepare for financial turmoil caused by huge falls in investments and potential disaster in the house market. ( https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/29/markets-live-latest-new…)
Wow. There is a major financial storm coming globally.. talk about red flashing lights everywhere.
Feels like a lot of this is being caused by Putin upping the stakes with Europe and their refusal to negotiate. Someone will blink.
Bitcoin-Pound trading volumes hit a record high as the British currency tumbled and Bank of England restarted QE. - Bitcoin Magazine
Friday, 30th September. The end of the financial year for many; the quarter for some, and the month as well.
Do we get some window dressing today, and will that be as good as it gets before we head into October? Perhaps.
Did I see a report that the Nats will not change their emulation of UK's recent tax policies that resulted in this crisis? How dumb is that, if it holds? Wedded to idealogy.
... send them a message ... I did ... told them not to copy Liz Truss ... shift the tax brackets at the bottom end , not the top ... the wealthy are doing just fine ... the Struggle Streeters need some tax relief ...
I am fascinated to see what happens with our migration data over the next 6-9 months.
The conventional wisdom is that net migration will slowly pick up, but it might pick up quite quickly with Australian and especially UK economies turning to custard.
Less kiwis leaving. More returning.
will have both inflationary and deflationary influences.
Western Australia state government is ramping up campaigning for more migration , high wages in a sunny clime for teachers & nurses ... great wines from Margaret River ... WA is the place to go for well educated young Kiwis ...
... and , I very much doubt they'll cut the open road speed limit to 80 kph ... only in NZ , sigh !
Australian economy turning to custard? Do tell.
(Better spot)
This is the last gasp of the Carbon Fuels dependence.
High prices are good news as people are slapping those Solar Panels up, Insulating their houses as fast as they can and buying EVs (not many in NZ but in Europe new EV's oversold combusting engine cars last year).
Solar, Wave Power, Wind Power, Geo Thermal etc. etc. are going gangbusters.
Fusion advances are exciting too.
All the ostridge brigade pretending that Global Warming is not helping.
The Methane coming out of the permafrost, as it melts, is making any thought of stopping the end of huamity a pipedream and PooTin is not helping.
No need to worry about the future generations at all; so roll on the money printing and lets all party until the end.
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