Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news wars and holidays are the features of today's roundup.
First up today, it is a Federal holiday in the US, Columbus Day (which is morphing into Indigenous Peoples' Day in a growing number of States and communities). But many businesses there don't treat it as a day-off - and that includes the stock exchanges.
Nor the currency markets of course, and the US Dollar is rising again and at a 20 year high. It is now +20% higher than a year ago. This is a sharp headwind against the onshoring movement which is happening due to logistics pressures. It is also a sharp headwind against profits of American companies that have substantial international operations. It will only help countries hurt by a rising greenback if the domestic US economy stays healthy and imports more. So far, that has been the case. The domestic US economy remains the engine of the global economy.
In Canada, it is their Thanksgiving Day holiday.
In Ukraine, Russia is lashing out with indiscriminate bombing of population centers, using terror tactics in reaction for its invasion failures. This angry change is driving up the cost of wheat, with worries that that Russia could suspend the safe grain trade corridor from Ukrainian Black Sea ports that was agreed to in an UN-brokered deal. Prices have risen +15% in a month.
In England, their central bank expanded its support of pension funds at the heart of their bond-market crisis even as borrowing costs jumped. It is a clear sign that stress in the British financial system isn't going away.
In Sweden, they handed out the Nobel Prize in Economics to, among others, Ben Bernanke, the former US Fed boss. It is for research he did in helping build policy responses that protect jobs in economic crises. They were used widely in the 2020 pandemic emergency.
In Australia, the AiGroup services PMI fell rather sharply, from a moderate expansion (53.3) to a contraction (48). The increasingly uncertain economic environment is dragging on their service industries. All services activity indicators have worsened in the last month. Lower consumer and business confidence following repeated interest rate rises and persistent inflation were major factors in the fall-off. The indicators for sales, new orders, and selling prices all fell, while input prices continued their upward march adding to inflationary pressures which is boosting nominal turnover levels.
And staying in Australia, the OECD's chief economist has come out in favour of their Stage 3 tax cuts going ahead, on the basis that they will tackle the issue of bracket creep. He told the ABC. “This is important. High inflation means that people are getting pushed to high-income brackets even when the real income does not warrant that,” he said.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.89% and unchanged. The UST 2-10 rate curve is little-changed at -42 bps. But their 1-5 curve is unchanged at -3 bps. And their 30 day-10yr curve is unchanged at +92 bps. The Australian ten year bond is holding at 3.97% and up +6 bps. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.76%. The New Zealand Govt ten year will start today at 4.39%, and up +10 bps.
Wall Street is open and the S&P500 has started their week down -1.4%. Perhaps they wish they hadn't opened. Overnight, European markets fell by about -0.5% although Frankfurt closed essentially unchanged. Yesterday Tokyo was closed for a holiday, Hong Kong closed down almost -3.0%. And Shanghai ended its Monday session, it fell after a week-long holiday, down -1.7% with a late sell-off. Chinese tech stocks were hit hard after the US imposed sweeping export controls on chips. The ASX200 ended -1.4% lower, and the NZX50 also fell away heavily at the end, finishing down -1.7%.
The price of gold will open today at US$1668/oz. This is down -US$27 from this time yesterday.
And oil prices start today down -US$1.50 from this time yesterday at just on US$91/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has fallen to be just under US$96.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at 55.6 USc and a -½c lower from this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are marginally firmer at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are -¼c softer at 57.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 66.2 and down about -30 bps.
The bitcoin price is now at US$19,154 and -1.8% lower than this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.0%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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172 Comments
Russia is lashing out... using terror tactics in reaction for its invasion failures
The reason for the latest Russian strike is obvious, except apparently to this author.
Vladimir's toy bridge getting blown up comes under the umbrella of "invasion failures".
Not sure that's what was being implied here. It was more likely another attempt at schoolyard logic, often used by the types of people who think Ukraine's official response to it was clever and edgy.
Playgrounds of mass destruction?
It was funny though. Putin must be used to hearing of failures from his army, navy, air force, special forces, Wagner etc, but now even his pod of military dolphins defending the Black Sea have been found wanting. Devastating.
It wasn’t a toy bridge, it was a very critical supply link without which the invasion will suffer even more than it has to date.
This is not a game of rugby, there are no rules. The hatred between the two sides, Cossacks included, goes back a hundred years.
I am reminded of Russia invasion of Finland in 1939, where the League of Nations deemed the attack illegal and expelled Russia, and Russia suffered severe casualties, but in a peace treaty they ended up with 9% of Finland
Yes the plucky Finns held out for as long as possible and I don't think there was any where near the same help for them from the West that the Ukrainians are getting now from the West.
Has anyone cranked out the false flag scenario for the bridge attack? It gives little Vlad a perfect excuse for 'retaliation'. Looks like the bridge wasn't completely totalled either - just saying ...
Love how Vladimir calls Crimea Bridge explosion a "terrorist attack"...then goes on to attack playground's and apartment blocks?
That's whom you would call a terrorist
He’s a nasty little man.
Yes. maybe.
But what would you expect him to do Next after the bridge attack? It was infrastructure for infrastructure.
I fear that we have a disconnect between our desire for Russia to 'lose’ the war, particularly in our MSM, vs the level of misery and destruction and Risk this outcome Will involve.
If we push for armed resistance and escalation of Ukrainian capability, we are also in a way complicit in the Russian response. Not that it's our citizens caught in the cross fire of course.
No nuclear armed nation looses a war.
What outcome are we aiming to achieve?
‘Infrastructure for Infrastructure’ - bullshit, Russia struck plenty of civilian targets, as well as infrastructure.
And let us not forget, Putin invaded Ukraine, not the other way round. Including Crimea.
From a Russian perspective... Crimea was annexed after a anti Russian political coup against a democratically elected Govt. The invasion started after key water water ways into the Crimea were cut off. making invasion almost inevitable. Blowing up the land bridge is a strategic attack.
I'm not picking sides Here. And my question is still the same to you.
What is the outcome you are looking for in the Ukraine?
Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. Putin has bitten off more than he can chew. if the Ukrainian people want to defend their county from an invading warlord then the west should be happy to support a democratic country fighting for its existence. The torture, rape and murder being inflicted on the Ukrainian people more than justify a few cold nights in Europe as it transitions away from Russian energy. As more Russians die the message will sink in that Ukraine is more trouble than it is worth.
Oddly you might find that too many people in the west are unwilling to sacrifice anything, including a drop in living standards, in order to achieve what you suggest above.
And I think Putin knows that.
Thankfully your statement is wrong, I'm surprised you have no idea that Europe is facing steeply rising gas prices and a difficult winter because they are siding with Ukraine, higher prices leading to higher interest rates and most likely recession
I don't think those who are truly struggling with the steeply rising gas prices are a) doing it willingly and b) siding with anybody in this war.
Lol - I know all of that there Yvil!
This is just the beginning.
Higher interest rates were baked in far before the Ukraine conflict Yvil - it just brought it forward. Surprised you did not know that?
Apartment blocks are not 'infrastructure'.
Perhaps fluffy was referring to the playgrounds?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/476440/russia-launches-biggest-air-str…
Yes. They they gave Kiev a smack all right.
But again you miss the point.
From a Russian perspective. The attack on the land bridge to Crimea was a strategic attack. It's really quite key to them holding Crimea.
What do you expect them to do? 'Oh yeah ok well I get it now, no bridge.. well I guess we'll Just pack up and go Home now...'
That's not going to happen and you know this.
So again. Same question. What Next?
would you happily encourage total war and destruction, threat of nuclear armed conflict as the Price paid for your Black and White position?
Better to negotiate and cease the bloodshed.
Yeah, if only the West had done that with Hitler the world would be a better place now.
Ukraine are pushing Russia back on multiple fronts, why would they negotiate to give up territory that they will likely recapture next year?
Maybe. Or maybe this drags on for a decade and Kiev is flattened.
Maybe Putin is toppled by a military coup and replaced with hard core military leaders who actually don't Mind using nukes.
Or Putin is toppled and Russia moves towards a less dictatorial, more open country and the world is a better place.
a bit naive :)
While it sounds idealistic, to underestimate the power of information available to citizens these days (even Russia or Iran), letting them make informed real decisions, is also naive. The VAST amount of data access available to most of the world, even without the internet in some countries is still a huge factor that I don't think has been played out properly (in religious or auto/technocratic states) since the Arab spring. Its like a social Dam with a crack in it.
The ability of a population to then enable leadership or cultural change using that information is the next question.
Why do you think the worlds biggest corporations are silently building wizz bang shiny data warehouses outside most population centres on independent energy grids.
Sounds like you are describing NZ.
Fluffybunny, what planet do you live on? Striking a bridge and striking apartment blocks full of women and children is not the same thing !!!
What are the Ukrainians trying to achieve? It's astonishing that you need to ask, it's to defend and save their country to become part of Russia, how can you not understand this?
There is a difference between what is right from a moral/principled position and what might actually happen.
I 100% agree with you Yvil from a moral/principled view.
But when a country of 50 million (Ukraine) has another country of 150 million (Russia) invading with with nuclear weapons and a pscyopath for a leader - what you think is right can be very different to what might actually happen.
Fluffy is discussing what might happen based upon the complex situation and relative strengths of opposing forces - you appear to be discussing what you want to happen.
Two very different things.
trust me , Putin is not the worst psychopath in Russia (def not a white fluffy bunny though of cause ) . Agree with you , committing suicide by Ukraine in the name of Ukraine sounds a bit irrational to me , although might sound heroic and brave
I'd totally be the best authoritarian dear leader in the history of dictators ever... Everyones been saying it... I know some really good people, Smart people, they are all saying it...
Here we go.. escalation... Either we are all in. And I mean all in Total war. All of us in NZ too.
Or we need to de-escalte.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/10/ukraine-to-demand-step-ch…
Bombing a bridge that is a key to maintaining a Provence, and bombing a capital City (regardless of the target) is a strategic move.
It's a response.
No it isn't. One is a target that makes it harder for invading forces to resupply. The other is a civilian target that is supposed to create terror in the population (literally the definition of terrorism).
Putin is losing so badly militarily that he is having to resort to asymmetric tactics typically used by guerrillas/terrorists/underdogs.
Once a war starts there agnostium - both sides become terrorists.
Heck, we 'the west' (the good guys/girls with all of these great morals and principles...), are possibly the biggest terrorists in modern history given the number of bombs we've dropped across the world in the last century.
But the US military industrial complex was just trying to spread Democracy and Freedom...
I am making no apologies for the US military industrial complex but that is beside the point. This conflict was not initiated by the US military industrial complex, it was initiated by the Putin regime when it decided to invade a sovereign country to try to get it's hands on strategic resources. Ukraine has almost unanimous support because these are the bare facts.
The US military industrial complex will be happy about the war because they can supply armaments but they are not the instigators or the reason why it is dragging on.
FL... Best comment in the whole thread. All he rest are just details - and commentary from ppl unaware of the degree of US meddling pre 2014.
Self determination un-allowed there but desirable/acceptable in Yugoslavia/Czechoslovakia et al.
I don't understand this logic but it seems to be quite common. The US is terrible, therefore we should abandon Ukraine to Russian atrocities?
There's very few people who would defend all the mistakes the US has made and continues to make, but that doesn't mean Russia gets a free pass to invade a neighbour and oppress their population. I was strongly against the US occupying Afghanistan and Iraq, and I think it's quite consistent to also be strongly against Russia occupying Ukraine.
You didn't read, or understand maybe,my second paragraph about self determination.
Drop the whatabboutism.
We are discussing the act of bombing a supply bridge and bombing a residential apartment block in retaliation.
One is clearly a terrorist act designed to instill terror in the population. The other is an attempt to disrupt the military supply lines.
do not be surprised if you are demonised , all those "winning war mongers" need is just one fighting jet above their heads (not even saying that jet need to drop anything) and most of them would start talking peace. It must be nice sitting in the chair and say what that nation need to do , because this is not them or their kids actually suffer. Thanks for giving me hope that someone actually has a bit of peace in their heads.
The people who are actually suffering largely want to continue the fight and reclaim their country. The West are not making this decision for them, we're just supporting them to give them a chance of defeating their aggressive neighbour.
yeap, sure thing, no worries
No nuclear armed nation loses a war?
Like Afghanistan or Vietnam?
On the contrary using nuclear weapons in this day and age is a guaranteed loss, for everyone involved, including the instigator.
Yes exactly.
We know the potential consequence
We know that the Russians are likely to escalate (recent attack and mobilisation Case in point).
Sooo What Next? Same question.
What do you consider a win. and how much Blood are you prepared to accept to achieve it.
Not that its your Blood of course.
What do you think happens if we all grab the handbrake in panic every time Putin whispers the word nuclear? He'll perceive weakness and push harder.
At some point bad behavior has to be stood up to, and better now than when he's on the border of Estonia, Poland, or ...Germany...
The mistake the world made in WW2 was letting it go too far before standing up. WW2 may not have been necessary or as serious If the west had armed and supported Czechoslovakia when Sudetenland was annexed.
You are missing an important point here. Ukraine are asking for Western help - much more help than they are getting. They want to defend and recover their territory from their invading enemy. 80-90% of their population is not willing to sacrifice their territory for peace.
Remember what Russia did in Bucha in the first weeks of the war - there was never an option for Ukraine to roll over and be peacefully occupied.
Nuclear armed nations have lost wars, multiple times. America failed in Afghanistan and Vietnam, despite being far more powerful than Russia by any measure.
Simple question.
Do you support total war in the Ukraine? What do you see as the outcome. And likely Russian response?
Or are you willing to compromise?
Simple answer. It's not for me to say, it's for Ukraine to decide how vigorously they want to defend themselves and what compromises they are willing to make. My suspicion is that many of them would support total war given Russia's well documented atrocities, and that is supported by the polling.
The outcome will be what is happening now. The only lever Russia hasn't pulled is nuclear weapons, otherwise this is the result of them giving the invasion their best shot. Their conventional power is now fading. Every day they lose a few dozen tanks and other vehicles that they cannot replace in a hurry, and a few hundred men that their demographics cannot afford to lose.
If they resort to nuclear weapons, they lose much faster as NATO will remove them from Ukraine within days.
My view is that the party has Only Just started.
We are a Long way of nukes. A lot more people Will die before that happens. And They don't need nukes to flatten Kiev. That's the point of the recent attacks. Kiev hasn't been targeted in a Long Time.
It's purely tit for tat, whilst we sit on the sidelines cheering it on.
Better to negotiate and cease hostility.
So if another country wanted to annex NZ, you would immediately lie down and surrender, that's very cowardly, unpatriotic, have some pride FB.
(edit, I guess a "fluffy bunny" is scared and cowardly by nature)
Nice one Yvil. Really?? Come on I Think your better than that. Have a cup of tea. Relax, Discus the point.
Me saying dialogue is better than killing = me be scared and cowardly in nature?
NZ is not being invaded. Let's Cross that Bridge when it occurs?
Putin is not interested in negotiating yet, he hasn't yet realised he's lost. When he does that is the time to negotiate. The negotiation will involved Russia withdrawing from the Ukrainian territory they invaded.
My concern is that they view Crimea as part of Russia. Like not up for debate absolute fight to the death etc.
They will not fight to the death for Crimea. They have too much to lose and too little to gain.
Putin miscalculated. He (or others in the regime) will eventually recognise this and move on.
It's the west that has everything to lose there agnostium. Our global power and excellent standard of living. Of which Putin intends to erode. And it appears to be working (so far).
Could be more like Hitler - you can negotiate with me in the afterlife.
Also, let's not cross that bridge when it happens, let's put in place an international system based on the rule of law between nations. Let's uphold and defend that system when someone tries to undermine it.
Is it a perfect system? No
Is it better than Right is Might and anyone who has nukes deciding they get to invade and Annex whoever they want? 100% yes.
It's interesting I think..
That when I come Here, suggest that we should be looking for the quickest path to peace, seeking dialogue, to de-escalte, avoid unnecessary death and destruction. Stop the killing.
How many people jump onto my comments and argue effectively for the opposite?
Yeah but remember ww2! Putin! Hitler!
Life is not so black and white.
What the World needs now is stability. Not further escalation of a civil war none of us really have any say in.
"What the World needs now is stability"
That is precisely why Ukraine and the West are standing up against Putin, if Ukraine just folded, Putin would move onto the next ex-USSR nation. To achieve stability, one cannot give in to bully's wishes.
Maybe you'll understand the situation better like this, I don't know if you're a parent or not, but when your 3 year old toddler throws a tantrum, screams and throws his toys around, the best answer is to stand firm, so that he/she learns that it's not acceptable behaviour, yes it's harder do in the short term, but it's much better in the long term. If you just give in to your misbehaving toddler, his/her behaviour will get worse and worse.
I'm happy to discuss with you Yvil, openly and genuinely.
But not so much if you downgrade to personal insults (refer previous comment).
I believe you said I was cowardly and scared in nature?
I don't Think what we need now in the Ukraine, is general analogies, or abstract historical references to ww2 etc.
I understand the view that a firm hand is what's needed.
MY concern is that a firm hand has caused the conflict. And Will Only make it now worse.
I call for dialogue and you then insult me personally...
I said, quote: "I guess a "fluffy bunny" is scared and cowardly by nature" if you think this is downgrading to personal insults, I suggest you get real, we're talking about war!
If we need to get real. We are talking about war..
They why is everyone Here getting worked up by a few dead civilians?
It's not Dresden after all.
"I said, quote: "I guess a "fluffy bunny" is scared and cowardly by nature" if you think this is downgrading to personal insults, I suggest you get real, we're talking about war!"
Yes and you're comparing the leader of the enemy to how you deal with a 3 year old child.
Are you sure you're 'getting real'?
Yes, absolutely IO, the best way to deal with a misbehaving bully, is to not let them get away with it. This stands true for a 3 year old, a teenager, an employee, a boss, a coach, any figure of authority and also a head of state.
Does your 3 year old have nuclear weapons Yvil?
If your 3 year old had nuclear weapons, would you let them do what they like?
Apparently IO would be giving South Korea to Kim Jong-Un and Taiwan to Xi. If only the gangs could track down IO and FB, a bit of stand over tactics and they would get all their stuff.
Are you comparing North Korea with Russia?
This is about relative power - of which you appear to have very poor understanding by making silly statements like the above.
They have nukes and South Korea does not. I know which one I think would win in a war.
And you think China and Taiwan have relative power? Grow up.
Again - are you comparing Russia with North Korea?
That is chalk and cheese. North Korea don't hold the power in that relationship.
The China and Taiwan situation may head down a similar path to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. China holds a large amount of power in that situation.
What you going to do about it HeavyG?
Change the way the world works by telling people with opposing views to 'grow up'. That would be a very 'grown up' thing to do :-)
Ok I think you miss the point there NZdano
Comparing how you raise a 3 year old child, with how you maintain international relations with a nation holding nuclear weapons, is like viewing the complexity of the world in a manner that a 3 year old child would (i.e. that is 3 year old thinking)..
Can you see the irony?
No
Does your 3 year old have nuclear weapons Yvil?
If you've had a 3 year old, then YES most definitely!
If a 7 foot giant walked up to you and said I'm going to roger you, would you touch your toes or start swinging? Two types of people in the world and only a person knows what type they are. But that person shouldn't make others be something they are not. The vast majority of Ukrainians are not toe touchers, you shouldn't force them to be so just because you would choose appeasement.
Haha
How about run away?
The 7 footer is probably quite slow.
But assuming I couldn’t run away, would definitely strike out!
Way to dodge the question (and the mirror).
I’d take the Butch Cassidy & Sundance Kid approach when facing the super posse - run away to South America and live a care free life (for a while at least in their case).
Russia got spanked in Afghanistan as well with US support. That's the point, make an invasion too costly for the invader (in both the lives of their soldiers and the cost of equipment).
I appreciate someone actually discussing this rather than ignoring the question or labelling it, or swearing.
I don't believe that's a similar situation. My fear, is that the Crimea means a whole bunch more (strategically) to Russian interests than Afghanistan. Black sea naval base. Ethnic Russian. For a Long Time actually part of Russia. etc.
I don't see the Russians giving it Up without a lot more Blood and destruction. likely Total war.. and that means total war with a Nuke Power.. not good!
I don't Think most people realise What the bridge attack represents. it's a strategic attack. Not a direct military one.
So is indiscriminate or targeted bombing of capital cities.
Better to understand The other side and negotiate before it escalates further.
There are always those that want to placate the bullies, it never ends well. People in a peaceful and safe country should not tell the people of a country who are being invaded, murdered, raped and tortured to suck it up. Advocating appeasement when the Russians are at your door is one thing, advocating appeasement when you live half a world away is a different story. Let the Ukrainians decide what they can live with.
Sorry.. forgot to add.
And genuinely up for debate.
You say it's just up to the Ukrainians. But if we in our actions and words, actively arm and support the Ukrainians, are we not then also actively complicit in the following death and destruction? (Regardless of moral position or reasoning)
And if the conflict is drawn out, and the territory not fully regained, and all we achieve are dead bodies?
This is My concern. We sit Here cheering for Blood, whilst the actual picture is confused, Grey and pushed along by external forces.
If someone was being raped by a thug everyday and they asked you for a gun to defend themselves what would your response be?
Not a good analogy.
These are nation states. This is an ethnic civil war. Not a crime committed by a single errand criminal.
And both sides are guilty of transgression.
What's your answer to the hypothetical? It's relevant to your personality type and what you consider reasonable.
I'm not arguing with your strawman. It's pointless.
Stick with specifics on the actual event.
De-escalte an increasingly dangerous situation.
At what price? Yours seems to be any as long as the Ukrainian are paying it. Hence the questions to try an illicit a bit of empathy and understanding from you, but keep ducking and diving the self awareness.
I don't understand your statements about self awareness. Or why it's relevant.
Avoidance of people dying and the Risk of this situation getting worse is precisely why I am advocating a cease to hostilities. And dialogue.
How many Ukrainians would have died if we'd Just accepted that Crimea was strategically important to Russia and said categorically no to Ukraine in NATO? More or Less than now?
I propose this view and you waffle on about Hitler, self-reflection and 7foot rapist Giants...
Because it shows your nature and that influences your opinion.
You clearly will take a lot of shit before you would grow a spine, if at all. So you expect others to do the same. The scenarios see if there is a point where you will grow a pair.
Gang member grabs your baby's lollipop.... "hush child, no need to cause a ruckus".
Gang member demands your phone... "No problem, I can buy another".
Gang member grabs your wife and starts to take her into a house... "Stay strong honey".
Your view of de-escalation sounds like asking the gang member to use lube. Ukrainians push back before they get to that point. That is why you cannot understand what they are doing.
Empathy and understanding have little to do with war (at least at the strategic level) - it is whatever side holds power and executes power well that win wars.
They do if you are supporting a side. The West is showing Empathy and understanding in providing Ukraine the means to defend itself from a bandit. Now Ukraine has the power (weapons provided by the West) and means (training and intel provided by the West). You wanted Ukraine to fold on day 1. It must grate you that they are winning after nearly 8 months.
You guys realise Putin is not the site moderator?
He could be reading this or storing the data based on the expertise of the Russian state sponsored hackers. Some think better to play it safe just in case, would not want to anger anyone.
Why are you getting so hung up on the bridge attack? Destroying supply lines by destroying infrastructure, be it roads, rail, airports or bridges, is common practice in warfare and has been done by both sides on multiple occasions already in this conflict.
I also don’t consider your take on Crimea being Russian territory as correct - it existed for centuries as an independent region before russia stole it in an 18th century war, and then soviet russia on their own free will reorganized it into Ukraine control ~70 years ago. Russian “ownership” claims of the region are as nonsense as its ownership claims of Ukraine are..
In case you have not noticed, they are both short little men, could be the root cause of the whole conflict.
Blowing up a bridge used to transport an invading army into your country is terrorism but blowing up apartments 100s of miles from the frontline is all good. The Putin troll club is out in force.
"The Bridge is terrorism but the apartments are a US false flag operation!"
- Certain people in this thread, probably.
Weirdos.
Don’t much matter what is done by whom or what anyone other than Putin thinks about it. This war is Putin’s mission and he ain’t changing his mind any time soon, if ever. Suspect the plan is now to claim a tract of Ukrainian territory south east of the Dnieper, using that as a natural border. But that won’t stop the fighting. Only Putin, or the removal of Putin, can initiate some sort of ceasefire.
He's already claimed the whole Kherson Oblast (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson_Oblast#/media/File:Kherson_in_Ukr…).
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He will start caring as more and more Russian men start dying and the Russian people start growing spines.
Flirting with Godwin’s law here but there are some similarities to how the Germans invasion of Ukraine played out WW2. Mostly an omnipotent dictator who considers himself to be infallible. This is demonstrated by how the generals initially in command were replaced by those both more brutal & subjugated, in the the ideology of their respective leader.
Yeah, not much of a stretch comparing Putin to Hitler. People seem to forget WW2 (well the Europe start anyway) started with both Germany and Russia invading Poland. Russia has always been a warmonger state and the allies should have kicked them out of all the countries they annexed into the USSR post WW2.
Putin wants to be remembered forever, and like it or not everyone knows who Hitler is.
That bridge was always going to go. Vital to the Crimea, and impossible to completely defend.
I think some parts of the west are delighted this war is happening, will help perpetuate it, and many more people will be murdered.
I see it as a madness, an ethnic conflict. There are no right solutions to those. I have none. Brothers and cousins murdering each other. Be very careful about becoming a cheerleader.
In West Ukraine there are concerns that Polands military assistance comes from an intention by Poland to take over there. It has ruled there before. And there will be "Ukrainians" who welcome that. A possibility of more madness.
In Ukraine there is a big area of mainly Romanian people. Or not, depending on who you talk to. But there is some agitation. Then who are the Moldovians really ?
Agreed. Once the Crimean peninsular was annexed, and the jewel of Sebastopol gained, strategically its value was immediately compromised by the limited access Russia had. Ok build a bridge but that, as obviously now demonstrated, could be easily destroyed. Therefore it’s hard not to see Putin’s core objective as being securing land access to Crimea. That being the case he may have thought he could only achieve that by toppling the regime in Kiev first and it looks like in that regard he was right because now he has a widely extended & fluid battle field on his hands and a diminishing strength in the calibre of his fighting force(s.)
This is why I Think the West is playing a really dangerous Game. By arming the Ukraine, we have been providing them with Long Range rocket systems. Ie stuff that has the ability to threaten the land bridge's and therefore existence of the peninsula.
All I can see is continued strategic escalation. And I don't see how this is a good thing.
Putin is a thief. He wages war like a mafia boss. He went into Ukraine to steal their stuff. That's the whole reason for this war, for Putin to steal Ukrainian land, grain, oil and people.
He is going to lose this war because the Ukrainian generals are of far higher calibre than the Russian generals.
Putin's core objective is now to keep as much of the land and resources he has stolen as he can while resuming oil and gas sales to Europe. He is attempting to keep by diplomatic means what he is losing in battles. It's not working because it is the opposite of what people are saying in the comments here - Europe is afraid of Russia invading their own country (the Baltics, Poland, eventually Germany) and so the Europeans are putting up with hardship now to avoid catastrophe later.
Russia is toast. Putin is going to make sure that there is nothing left undamaged for him in the situation before he leaves and goes on to the next wrecking spree which will be within Russia and on Russia's southern borders.
Peace will come for the Ukrainians once Putin is defeated and Russia leaves all their lands.
Peace will come when NATO leaves.
🤡
This is not an ethnic conflict. This is war between sovereign nation states. One invaded the other, twice.
There's some ethnic cleansing going on, Russia has started with killing off the Unkrainian language in the occupied territories.
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-language-donbas-schools/30165052.html
Where do you fit the Donersk and Luhansk republics into that agnostium.
"Sovereign Nation" is a concept that does not fit the reality of who actually lives places. No right answer using that.
They were part of Ukraine.
There are legal and peaceful ways for regions to gain independence from nation states. One of them is not asking a neighbour to invade and for that neighbour to agree.
This would be like the Basque separatists asking France to invade and kick out the Spanish State and France agreeing.
A warmonger state? I think the USA has bombed 30 countries since WW2. Sorry that was for Freedom and Democracy!
So the OECD understands the importance of real income while our Finance Minister cynically banks more and more Crown revenue and rebukes any suggestion of indexing as a 'tax cut', as people's living costs explode.
Or is he just quite happy to use the OECD as a reference point when it suits?
I would hope that if the 'books' are ok,that we will see some re-jig of taxation indexes announced by this government,but hopefully with a heavier weighting to the lower end and a 'tax free' band like Australia.The $2 a week for someone on $45k on offer from the National Party is an insult.We should have a clearer idea of where we are tracking as a nation by next year.I am sure they are keeping their powder dry.Interesting to note that Australias upcoming stage 3 tax cuts have drawn a lot of debate over there,but looks like they will be going ahead.More interesting is that they were agreed to in 2019,but come into effect in 2024...that's 5 years of 'banking' the money,whilst trumpeting the tax cuts.Australia though is the 'lucky country' ,their tax take from minerals,coal and all mining is eye watering.Whether it be Oz's mineral wealth,middle east oil,we have to accept we will never be as wealthy with 5 million people and a few cows and sheep.
So what? That's no excuse to leave tax brackets unadjusted for a decade, especially considering the first thing Labour did was cancel Bill English's tax cut package which was really just belated indexing.
This needs to be taken out of MP's hands and legislated for each and every year. There is a severe ethical and agency issue with the government both mandating an inflationary environment with the RBNZ and then politicising the indexation of tax brackets, doubly-so when RBNZ overshoots by 200% and faces no consequences for it.
You do understand that the government tax take does not currently meet their costs, right? Any adjustment to tax brackets requires more government debt for my generation to pay while we also pay for boomers retirement, or cuts to government spending. I am sure there are some cuts to government spending that could give us all a few bucks a week, but any significant tax cut requires a cut to the big costs, no doubt the NZ super fund if National gets in which again screws over my generation. Alternatively they could cut health, education, accommodation, transport, etc. They could get rid of the fuel subsidy and the cost of living payout and shift tax brackets, but that just shafts the poor. What is your solution?
Yes, I do understand. I too am from a generation who is working hard, trying to overcome a massive mortgage, raise a family, save for my retirement as well as cover the costs of everyone else's. But I can't do that, nor can other young Kiwis, if the government holds the frankly appalling position that it's acceptable a minimum wage worker (the bare minimum full time income) is knocking on the door of hitting a 30% tax bracket. Or that student loan repayments get collected at a flat 12% for every dollar over and above literally half that amount.
If Government inflation is running so far ahead of inflation that indexing income (not GST, just income tax brackets) would be so catastrophic for the government books, then maybe they aren't being as well managed as they'd have you think. And frankly, given I also have to meet rising costs out of a salary far short of a well-paid cabinet minister, that's their problem. I've had enough of them making it mine.
So is bracket creep the best thing to fix, or should they give a tax cut to everyone through a reduction in the lowest tax rate, or should they add a tax free threshold? I think this is what voters will get to choose from in the next election, although National's package will give by far the biggest tax cuts to property investors and those over $180k
Bracket creep is a more pressing issue. It's causing all sorts of issues that's being worsened as wages try (and fail) to keep up with living costs. Then legislate it to roll over automatically each and every year without political interference. The value of a 0% bracket gets lower and lower as wages overshoot past it, if you're not indexing past that point then it's pointless and if everyone gets it then it would end up being uselessly low anyway.
I'm about to pay off my student loan and there's no good reason our repayment scheme and thresholds should materially differ from the Australian one. They have higher wages and lower living costs than we do.
I'm pretty miffed at National persisting with aspiring FHBs underwriting financing costs for investors who will be bidding against them. I can't quite see the moral basis for that, which I'd love to hear a religious bloke like Luxon justify. It's a lot harder to sell when you put it in that terms, but that is the reality of what they are proposing.
I don't think automatic bracket creep adjustment will make NZ a better place. No one wins an election promising tax increases, so we will end up with tax rates going down every time the right are elected and not going up when the left are elected. The rich will get richer and government services will become non-existent. I would do pretty well out of it personally, but the society I live in might not look so great.
Bracket creep is like a little pay rise for the government every year. But every few years the public vote to get some of that back. Maybe it has gone too far with average earners now paying the second top tax rate, although they only pay that on a small percentage of their income.
...except Labour campaigned in 2017 on the basis that they would 'reverse National's tax cuts' and effectively hiked taxes back up after the tax cuts had already been legislated. Then again they campaigned on another stuff and didn't do a bunch of it so maybe it evens out.
Automatic indexation would take the cynical plundering of real incomes out of the hands of irresponsible politicians who care more about have surpluses to brag over than whether people can make ends meet. They have abused the ability to make that decision, and thus cannot be trusted with it. It may well mean they have to make smarter choices about how government spends their money, but that is literally the thing they are paid to do.
I count both National and Labour as serial offenders in this regard, but at least Bill English had a crack at undoing some of the accumulated damage.
Cut the number of government employees, from 2018 to 2021 it went up 10k. Say the average salary is 105k (oheads included) thats about 1 billion a year in savings. then there is the numerous working committees Labour have introduced, drop those. So I'm sure there is plenty of fat to trim, private companies always need to look at this, but public not so much.
$1 billion is $3.84 a week per capita.
The right always think they can cut taxes through "efficiencies". Act think they can have a flat 19% tax rate mainly through efficiencies. Yet last time National were elected they found there wasn't that much to cut, so to give their promised bracket creep tax cuts they increased GST, stopped super fund investment, and stopped investing in the likes of health and education.
From memory the argument they 'stopped spending' on these things was because they didn't increase spending in line with population growth. So you had the absurd reality of National ever increasing the spending on Health year on year but being accused of 'slashing' health funding.
By the party who then got in, stripped targets out of the health system and then acted like announcing spending (not even actually spending it) was as good, if not better than what National did.
Colour me unconvinced. How's our world-leading Cancer Centre that totally wasn't just announced to head off National making inroads in the polls under Bridges going these days? Or our $2b Mental Health spend?
"So you had the absurd reality of National ever increasing the spending on Health year on year but being accused of 'slashing' health funding. "
Cutting spending per capita is effectively 'slashing' health funding just like bracket creep is effectively a tax increase.
"Slashing" has a pretty commonly understood meaning.
And either way, getting in and immediately doing worse isn't exactly a strong turnaround, even by their own standards.
That's right. You could start by downsizing the HR and comms/PR teams in the public sector.
In 2020, 1 in 11 people working for Kainga Ora were in the HR team or 163 FTEs. That's well above Bloomberg's recommendation 1 HR person per ~71 employees.
KO's annual budget for their HR team was a whopping 155k per FTE.
What's missing from this data here are the millions spent on recruiter commissions and "wellbeing" consultants.
Wasn't that when KO was getting set up? I would expect it to have a higher ratio of HR people as they set up systems processes and focus on recruitment.
Remember KO was formed to gain efficiencies of combining two separate organisations, exactly what National claim they want to do. It takes energy, expertise and time to design and deliver these efficiencies. The bigger the organisation the bigger the task.
What is the ratio now?
the tax cuts are coming GV don't worry about that, its election year next year, time to throw some gold coins out to the peasants, they will be banking on the voters with short memory spans to get them across the line.
Oh I'm sure they are. Our only hope that they come close to squaring up is if the polling numbers get really bad for Labour.
And that's a shitty way to run a tax system IMO.
Agreed,but thats the way all parties work...Nats are offering cuts to get in ,Labour will probably as well to stay in,and when positions are reversed,it stays the same.Both have done it over the decades.Your idea of legislating indexing would certainly help.
Labour have given everyone who buys fuel a pretty decent tax cut this year, effectively paid for by bracket creep. And lots of people got a $300 tax rebate this year with the cost of living payment.
...at short notice, once they were hurting in the polls, and once people started to figure out they got to keep less and less of the pay increases they needed to cover living costs because of bracket creep.
Like I've said, I don't want taxation policy to be decided on whether someone is comfortable in the polls or not. The erosion of real incomes isn't decided that way, so why should we accept it when it comes to the money we have to spend on making ends meet.
I wouldn't underestimate the arrogance in this bunch. Remember back in 2017, they overturned National's tax bracket adjustments, labelling it a handout to the wealthy and redirected that funding to WFF. Nothing stopping them from arguing more targeted support once again.
Some numbers from MSD's June 2022 release for context:
1 in 9 working-age Kiwi is on main benefit and 1 in 7 on supplementary assistance. What's worth noting is the number of Kiwis receiving hardship allowance doubled from Jun-17 to Jun-22 but the amount paid out went up 3x.
Bernanke (Helicopter Ben), getting a prize in economics. Were there no other contestants?
When the world loves FREE money, why wouldn't he win?
Are Central Banks Going Bankrupt? Morgan Stanley Makes A Striking Observation
As a sidenote, based on average Treasury yields at the various points that the Fed has expanded its balance sheet, we estimate that the Federal Reserve’s $9 trillion balance sheet is now underwater. If the Fed was an actual bank, and if banks marked their assets to market value, the Fed would be insolvent. Of course, the Fed doesn’t mark to market, nor have banks done so since the early-2009 market low, when the Financial Accounting Standards Board relaxed FAS Rule 157 (which is actually what ended the global financial crisis – by making bank insolvency opaque). In effect, the Fed has created liabilities for which there is now no corresponding asset, and now finds itself wandering into fiscal policy, which is the sole domain of Congress. Needless to say, nobody cares.
Even without capital losses (which can be recovered by holding the bonds to maturity), the Fed will also go underwater if the interest it pays on reserve balances exceeds the interest it earns on the bonds it purchased. In this case, the Fed can be expected to book any loss as a “deferred asset.” As Ben Bernanke explained before Congress years ago, when the Fed books a loss as an asset, “it is an asset in the sense that embodies a future economic benefit that will be realized as a reduction of future cash outflows.”
What Bernanke meant with that hand-waving gibberish is this: Fed normally returns the interest received on its asset holdings back to the Treasury, for the benefit of the public. If the Fed’s bond purchases lose money, that interest will instead be used to cover losses. See, “it is an asset in the sense that it embodies a future economic benefit [to the Fed] that will be realized as a reduction of future cash outflows [to the public].” Yay. Link
Global greening rolls on. Strike desertification off the hand wringer list and add to the ever expanding doom prophesy fail list.
"Africa's deserts are in "spectacular" retreat
New Scientist has learned that a separate analysis of satellite images completed this summer reveals that dunes are retreating right across the Sahel region on the southern edge of the Sahara desert. Vegetation is ousting sand across a swathe of land stretching from Mauritania on the shores of the Atlantic to Eritrea 6000 kilometres away on the Red Sea coast.
Nor is it just a short-term trend. Analysts say the gradual greening has been happening since the mid-1980s, though has gone largely unnoticed."
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2811-africas-deserts-are-in-spec…
Article date 2002. So must be a jungle by now eh?
I am almost embarrassed for our resident petro-troll......clearly this morning he didn't even glance at this morning's 'talking points' sent his way from the Heritage Foundation before spewing them out.
Here is a 2018 study to set the record straight - the Sahara has grown 10% since 1920: https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=244804
Are all these trees absorbing the extra CO2 entering the atmosphere? Lets look at the data and see:
Carbon Dioxide | Vital Signs – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (nasa.gov)
That's a resounding no. The level of CO2 is not just rising but accelerating.
Not at all. Looks like the retreat could be down to farmers adopting more green practices. You really are a piece of work. I assume you have no kids or grandkids as only a sociopath would willing take money to promote a narrative that will f*** up their futures.
From the article
"But there is confusion over why the Sahel is becoming green. Rasmussen believes the main reason is increased rainfall since the great droughts of the early 1970s and 1980s. But farmers have also been adopting better methods of keeping soil and water on their land."
Ploughing, discing, dumping synthetic fertilizers, spraying chemicals, over grazing, taking bailage, GMO crops are not better methods of keeping soil and water on their land. Yield at all costs, over nutrition and the environment.
From NSW:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11298333/NSW-real-estate-Domin…
Instead of paying stamp duty, buyers will be able to choose a $400 annual fee and 0.3 per cent of the land value while it's their primary residence, and the property's next buyer can opt out of the scheme.
An online calculator on the ServiceNSW website was launched on Monday, allowing people to search for a property to see what they would pay in stamp duty compared to the land tax, using data from the valuer-general.
An $830,000 apartment with a land value of $265,000 would attract an $1195 payment in the first year, compared to $32,440 for stamp duty.
A $1.35million house with a land value of $810,000 would command $58,450 in stamp duty, compared to a $2830 first year payment.
Land suitable for development is a finite resource and land values usually increase over time, pushing up the payment along with it.
suppose the foreign buyers wouldnt get that option and have to cough up the extra 7%.
Which is a good thing. Nothing wrong with foreign investment when it is done into productive industries that creates jobs and generates wealth. Foreigners buying property then leaving it vacant which happens here is not good for society. NZ should consider a similar scheme.
In Sweden, they handed out the Nobel Prize in Economics to, among others, Ben Bernanke, the former US Fed boss. It is for research he did in helping build policy responses that protect jobs in economic crises. They were used widely in the 2020 pandemic emergency.
Firstly, it is not a real Nobel Prize - the Swedish Central Bank made it up.
Secondly, the ridiculous work being rewarded was a model of banking that every decent central bank has said is plainly wrong (BoE 2014 being the most damning). Bernanke did not spot the GFC coming because he didn't understand the finance system, and the only thing he contributed to the 2020 pandemic response was providing a lesson in what not to do!
from Eurodollar University - "Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize award rewrites the past ..."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FHCOTXIYtk
"The domestic US economy remains the engine of the global economy."
I think this is true, only in the sense that US credit cards remain the engine of the global economy.
Much in the sense that BNPL is working its magic here. The critical 5% of our economy in discretionary spend-sensitive areas like tourism or hospo rely on people spending more than they earn. Those margins are now finer than ever with higher rents and mortgage payments. If people stop spending then it will just grind to a halt. We simply haven't run an economy in 'real' terms on a cash basis for decades. We don't know how it works or what speed it might come apart at.
I am starting to think that functionally speaking, the conditions for stagflation and deflation are perhaps much more similar in our local context than we may appreciate.
You can add student loans, housing bubble, government spending at all levels, increased corporate debt, Fed money printing, the US economy is fueled by increasing debt.
Keep watching as the NZD goes right down the gutter. (But obscure it by saying it's only because of the USD strength.)
USD continues to rise as money moves to safety, there is serious stress in international bond markets and the only safe haven is USD,
it does feel very very much like GFC did in the second leg down now.
Just check out the NZD against the other currency pairs. You will be surprised (negative) if you continue to believe the story about the safe haven USD accounting solely for the weakness of the NZD.
There was a bit of chat yesterday about the reality Brown may face - a lot of chatter on the radio this morning about what he actually can and can't do. Guess he can force people out by force of personality but will be interesting to see how it plays out. Was interesting to see interactions with the media too - the guy's a bit of a rude pr*ck. Oh well.
I doubt he will last his full first term.
Do you mean politically or physically?
He does seem like a 'grumpy' version of 'sleepy Joe'
Looks ominous for the path of the OCR.
The Most Powerful Buyers in Treasuries Are All Bailing at Once. From Japanese pensions and life insurers to foreign governments and US commercial banks, where once they were lining up to get their hands on US government debt, most have now stepped away. And then of course there’s the Federal Reserve, which a few weeks ago upped the pace that it plans to offload Treasuries from its balance sheet to $60 billion a month.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/most-powerful-buyers-treasuries-bailing-…
And in the USA
FPOTUS campaigned for Kari Lake in Arizona. A tight race for governor.
POTUS, derided as "Sleepy Joe" is now "Smokin Joe". Poll numbers up.
Oathkeepers' trial- a morsel about contact with Secret Service.
Pretty sad indictment on society when we drag a persons family issues through the mud.You may be the POTUS,but when your child is hurting and screwed up,you are just a dad at the end of the day.
I hope NZ politicians and media stick with their unofficial rule on not using personal issues for political gain.
It is hard enough getting good people into public office without dragging personal & family issues/failures into the public domain.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11292765/Joe-Bidens-emotional-…
Agree 100%.
If we want the best, brightest and most civic minded to become politicians we need to make it attractive for them.
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